Penn Relays Wrap Up

by Jarrett Felix

It was an amazing Friday night at Penn Relays. Honestly, the DMR was one of the best races I've ever seen and, if I'm continuing the aforementioned honesty, after that unreal event, it was impossible to get truly psyched up for a while. Spare me a brief moment of anecdote sharing before I get into some recap of the PA specific shenanigans.

So I had the pleasure of watching the race with my college roommate Charlie Kline and fellow writer/current Penn athlete Sean Collins. Charlie's a Vermonter with a runner's average familiarity with high school athletics and Sean is in our writer Facebook chat being overloaded with the stuff, so it was a nice range of experience. But regardless of who I was with, everybody was on some level aware of Andrew Hunter.

In our section of the stands, there were a couple kids behind us who were making race predictions for the DMR. One found out more quickly than the other where Andrew Hunter was located and picked his school, Loudon Valley. The other picked the field I guess? He may also have picked LaSalle (incidentally, that was my pre-race pick). Regardless, as soon as the race starts, the one kid who picked against Hunter gets excited as LV has an early fall. All the same, the mood in our section (and probably the stadium) seems to be, Hunter is going to win the thing and it's a race for second. Even when Hunter gets the baton some 10 seconds back from a sub 4:10 miler, that still seems to be the general energy.

Slowly, the drama builds as Hunter continues to close down the gap. He catches LaSalle's anchor (Salisbury) with about 200 to go and the sprint is on. Salisbury fights him off hard and coming off the final turn the two are going all out. Hunter never seems to pull ahead, especially from our angle, until maybe the last possible moment. He makes a wild lean, almost falls, and makes the thing interesting.

Now at this point, there's not a lot of dudes left in the stadium (it's pretty late, fairly cold and there's no Jamaicans left to root for). That makes for an excellent silence as everyone is listening to see who gets the win. Now our announcer, good old Ron, comes on the loud speaker and says "LaSalle". That sends the kid who picked them in a real tizzy. He's running around the stands laughing maniacally. But Lopresti comes back on and says something like "Wait, I didn't mean to say that, we don't know who won yet".

Then, on the scoreboard, they flash the name Loudon Valley and then the name LaSalle with the same exact time! So we all instantly turn to laugh and the formerly celebrating now devastated kid in our section. A nice cherry on top of an epic finish. Conspiracy theories aside, it's one of the most amazing races in the history of April and might have passed the 2010 College COA 4x800m on my "best races I've ever seen live" list. Maybe, but probably not. Almost certainly not. I'll never turn on you, Robby.

Of course, there was a strong PA presence in this one. Cardinal O'Hara, the surprise indoor state champions, came into this race with a bit of a chip on their shoulder. Although they had won the state title the past two years, few really cared about their entry into the event. Most of the talk revolved around DT West and, on our Penn Relays preview show, just one panelist predicted a sub 10:20 time. But the O'Hara boys got there, breaking 10:20 by a small margin on what was not a perfect night for shorter distance running (especially if you are standing around cold in the waiting paddock). Rob Morro set the tone early, moving up from mid/back of the pack to jump all the way to 3rd by the time he handed off the stick. The Jones boys ran strong legs and gave Ryan the baton in a strong spot in about 3rd. Then Ryan James brought things home, busting out another big PR on the anchor with a 4:21. They ended up finishing 9th, but it's hard to argue this team didn't deliver with an optimal performance.

Now we will look to see what moves this team makes for outdoors. They have the pieces to put a strong 4x8 on the track (and maybe they will stack the relay at districts to get a state spot), but I think this team will ultimately be spread out in the individual events. Morro is an interesting name going forward in the 3200 and Ryan James has shown strong improvements in his track abilities this year so far (big speed improvements as well). Both guys (who've medaled in XC the last two years) would be fun to have in the deuce (a suddenly much more wide open deuce).

In the individual events, the favorites for the state title got, in the words of Elvis, "all shook up". A couple weeks ago, I was on the "Josh Hoey is the best miler in the state bandwagon" but then I backed off that logic hard. I picked him for 3rd PA finisher (shout out to Paul Hayes, who was in the Josh Hoey FTW camp). And I didn't think any of our PA guys would win the thing, let alone place top 3. But Josh Hoey proved he's hit another level this spring and continues to improve. Hoey won the open mile, something no PA runner had pulled off since Chris Spooner back in 2004. He did it with a beautiful kick from about 300 out (eerily similar move to the one his brother pulled off to win outdoor states last spring) and a massive PR of roughly 6 seconds! He was in a shaky position early in the race and had to swing way wide to get back into a good spot, but he managed to pull it off without sacrificing too much energy. His 4:11.90 brings him down to close to 4:10 for 1600 and makes him the clear PA #1 by time. This also is a faster outdoor mile than Kolor or Jaxson has run, making Josh the clear favorite for the outdoor 1600 title as we enter the month of May.

All of this comes as Josh is closing out the last semester of his sophomore year of high school. Now we've seen sophomores showcase this kind of speed, but rarely this kind of ability to win. That's the tricky one. Craig Miller and Zach Brehm are the guys who come to mind and both are two of the fastest sophomores in the history of the nation (especially Miller). Remember, Chris Spooner was the last guy to win this title for PA. The same Chris Spooner who would go on to break the state 2 mile record and win the 4x8, 16 and 8 outdoors (in AA) during that same season. That should give you an idea of how rare this kind of thing is.

Another fun fact, the 1600m state champ has been an underclassman a lot. We are talking 2004, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015 (AAA exclusively here, but still). The last time a sophomore won gold was that 2004 race. The runner? Craig Miller, naturally.

Although our other guys didn't manage to crack the top 5, they still performed admirably during the weeknd. Kolor ran a strong 4:16 in his Penn Relays debut for 7th and was up in the mix throughout the race. Dahl made a strong move on the third lap, despite having a 4x8 carry in his legs and, although he couldn't quite find the extra gears on the last lap, he still ran what I believe is an open PR at 4:16. Kid is still just a junior and is learning a lot about how best to run the mile. I like his upside.

As for Josh's brother Jaxson, he didn't have the race he wanted Friday night, but the kid showed a lot of heart running for the West 4x4 the next day. He delivered a pair of 50 point relay splits on a couple sub 3:20 relays and helped the team compete as one of the top philly area schools. I wonder if we could see Josh in the 16 and Jax in the 8 come outdoors to try and grab double golds? I guess we will see what happens going forward.

The 3k was another fantastic race and, although PA didn't leave with the gold, I would say our state did leave with a lot to brag about.

Nate Henderson, a junior from JP McCaskey, had been known for his impressive mid race surging ability (at least by me), but had struggled to close an elite 3200 out with a final kick. Well, after a 4:14 1600 and a blazing 1:53 4x8 split (I've seen as fast as 1:53.1 reported by people at the meet), it was clear Nate was turning it up a notch. In his Penn Relays debut (something I thought would cause him to struggle) he ran a poised race, moving up at the right times in the crowded, fast paced field and then made a big surge to try and steal the thing with a lap to go. Ultimately, the race belonged to Eric Van der Els (shout out to Alex Fox who picked this on our recent episode of TheRoundHouse), but Henderson still held his own all the way through the line. He ran a big PR of 8:24 (converts to 9:01.13 for 3200m) and finished as the top PA runner in a field that included Dominic Hockenbury and Jake Brophy. With the victory, Henderson may now be the favorite to win the state title in the 3200 (an argument I made on the third episode of TheRoundHouse) and perhaps become only the second junior in state history to break 9 minutes for 3200.

Dominic Hockenbury added to his long list of top marks, running 8:27 (converts to 9:04 for 3200m) and placing 8th in this loaded field. A sub 8:30 3k is no joke and was also a big improvement on his time a year ago. Hockenbury will likely now turn his attention to rematch with Brophy at the Henderson Invite and then to the outdoor 3200 state record. Meanwhile, Brophy placed 12th in 8:30.11 for the 3rd PA finish. He looked a little uncomfortable in the race and never seemed to find his rhythm. It was a fast pace from the gun and perhaps that through him off his game a bit. However, Jake recently ran 4:15 in a dual meet (a very quick time) and is still one of the most proven state performers in Pennsylvania. He will be tough to beat, especially in a field where there are a lot less guys running sub 9:10 pace. Don't sleep on a motivated and hungry Jake Brophy.

Moving to Saturday, we had two PA 4x800s that qualified for the Championship of America: State College and CB West. After running very fast times in the previous day's preliminary heats, the teams were still recovering a bit on race day. Meanwhile, the Jamaican schools were ready to go from the jump. Things went out very quick and the PA squad's ended up a bit back from the 1:53-1:54 type pace. The top two Jamaican squads really ran away from this field, running 7:33 and 7:35. Those times are #4 and #5 in the event's history and the two fastest times from Jamaican teams in meet history. So it was going to be pretty tough to beat these guys.

State College managed to move up the field through and take 4th place overall, running some strong marks across the board. Nick Feffer really shined with a low 1:54 split that was extremely impressive (he held on valiantly after a real quick opening quarter). They ran 7:44, a comfortable state lead, and there's still room to drop here as well. I believe this mark is also faster than Pennsbury ran a year ago (and they went on to break 7:40 at states) so they are in a pretty good spot.

As for CB West, although they only finished 11th, they showed a lot of upside during both races. They have 4 guys who can run under 2 minutes and they have a gutsy group of guys. They mixed it up valiantly at the front of the field in prelims and put up a good fight on tired legs in the final. I'm very interested to see how they handle Pennridge (and the rest of a very deep district one) in a couple weeks (State College won't be there as they are in D6). The 4x8 landscape is still very in flux and, although SC ran very well, they didn't put down anything that makes them seem invincible (like North Penn in 2008, CB South in 2009, CBW & Abington in 2011) so no one will be afraid of them come states. That should bring out the best of all involved.

And isn't that what we all want to see?

More recaps on the non-Penn Relays events to come later in the week. We will also have another episode of TheRoundHouse this Monday night (and possibly another episode later in the week). Monday's episode will cover the biggest stories from around the nation (at all levels) and will be on at 8:15 here on the blog and on YouTube. If we have the man power (and the demand) we will put together a PA specific show later in the week.

So if you want it, comment away and tell us what's up! We will do our best to give the people what they want.

4x800 Prelims at Penn

Well, it was a pretty fast first day at the Penn Relays. I'm operating via phone (and apparently the mobile version doesn't show the official splits that the computer version does) so everything I say is unofficial. But if you are in front of a computer rather than a phone, I'd suggest clicking over to pennrelaysonline.com because they are official and will have splits galore on their site. 

PA will be sending two to the finals tomorrow in the 4x8 COA: State College and CB West. State College was the top qualifier, winning a very fast prelim in 7:47.78 and West, from the same heat, will enter as the 5th seed thanks to a 7:49.00. Heat 3 produced 4 of the top 5 qualifiers overall. 

In the just missing category, GFS finished as PA's third team in 7:55 (16th overall, 12 go to finals) and North Penn became the surprise team of the day with a 7:56 run for 17th overall. CR North and Bishop Shanahan rounded out the sub 8 schools with 7:57 and 7:59 times respectively.

7:53.43 was the 12th qualifier overall.

Again, I haven't seen any official splits or anything, I'm just going off what I watched on the track, but here are some of my takeaways.

In heat 1, Shanahan ran a real nice race to take 3rd overall in their small school section. Kolimago ran a very strong lead off leg to help get the team in a great spot and the rest of their legs held on well, including some nice finishing kicks from their final legs. 

In heat 2, Penn Wood was the state's early leader with Manyeah going out hard early. But GFS would real them back in as Grayson Hepp really got moving the last 200 of his race. I'm not sure what the first 600 was, but he closed like a madman off the last curve. Ultimately, GFS was one pack away from the final as the team's that placed in front of them ran 7:53 and barely snuck in. But Dahl split a strong 1:55 anchor leg and did make up some ground on the anchor to move the team within striking distance. 

Heat 3, as mentioned, where was our qualifiers came from. CB West's Carter Zerweck and Jake Claricurzio ran some fantastic early legs. Claricurzio was battling for the lead throughout his carry and holding his own among the big guns. It was a clear pack of 5 at halfway and I was nervous not everybody would get in. 

After a strong 3rd like by Degleris of SC and a great 3rd leg from West's runner (not sure by face who it was) both teams were in the mix, but at the back of the lead pack. Luckily Milligan and Fortna are two of the strongest anchors in the business. Milligan ran an extremely poised anchor and split an easy looking 1:54 that had to be one of the faster splits of the day. Fortna, meanwhile, looked like he might fall off the pace, but rallied hard core with a gutsy finish to keep things close and, ultimately, clinch a second straight spot in the finals for West.

In Heat 4, North Penn and CRN set the tone early with fantastic lead off legs. I think Keller lead off for North and, after his 1:56 run at Abington, he was ready for this moment and handed off at the front. North Penn also got a huge lift from their lead off (I think it may have been Dante Watson, but not sure). The two schools hung valiantly at the front throughout their relay and, although neither team was quite in the mix at the very front of the race, they ran ultra competitive races and really impressed me. Both schools have a ton of forward momentum.

Worth noting, I didn't see Brophy run the team's 1st, 3rd or 4th legs so unless he ran second (possible considering that's where I think he ran last year?) he will be fresh for 3k. I'd suggest looking at the results page to confirm this though. 

Overall, I'd say it was a nice start for PA and I'm excited for our two finalists tomorrow. Both schools will be forces to reckon with in the final.

The Relay Predictions

By Jarrett Felix

The Penn Relays is honestly unlike any other race I’ve ever contested. I had the good fortune of competed in two events at Penn my senior season. The 4x800 prelims on Friday Morning (we barely got in and the only reason we were a barely was because of Sam Ellison) and the 4x400 on Saturday afternoon (a couple of moments before Bolt ran actually). It was an amazing experience, even though neither race went particularly well, and I’ll always remember that weekend.

Not to be too full of myself here, but I like to think that brief moment of Penn Relays revelry taught me a bit about what it takes to be successful at Penn. These are my basic takeaways that I will naturally incorporate into my predictions.

On the first day, we were nervous and excited to race the 4x8. We knew we had barely gotten in by the skin of our teeth and we knew that in a bit over our head. We were prepared for that mental game. However, we were definitely not prepared to be ushered into the waiting area with no time to warm up or throw spikes on or anything. At Penn, they cram everyone like sardines into the waiting area and it’s very tricky to time a proper warm up if you’re a rookie. Then you just stand around anxiously in a jam packed area with no room to stretch out or do strides or anything like you would typically experience at a normal invite or dual meet. Combine that with the big crowd, odd turns (lanes inside of lane 1 are weird) and the fact that you will inevitably realize that this is the Penn Relays and the pressure creeps in with slowly increasing intensity ….

I’d imagine the second time around it’s not quite as big of a deal. Even running a day later, things were a bit less nerve racking and we definitely timed our warm up routine better. So, as per usual, experience and proper preparation can go a long way in this meet.

The other “secret” I discovered back in the day came in the 4x4. Our normal lead off leg was academically ineligible at the wrong moment and left off our squad. That meant our #2 leg had to move up to the #1 leg. At Penn, it’s a waterfall start for the first leg rather than in lines. And there are a ton of teams. Our new lead off leg was definitely nervous about the crowded start, and he was kind of weak and puny so it would be easy for him to get pushed around a bit. Then, as we were waiting in the pre-race zone (for about an hour) we watched as a lead off leg (much bigger and stronger than ours) went down hard, falling directly on the rail. It was a fairly gruesome injury and, after that, I think our lead off leg was just mentally defeated. When we finally got to race, he went straight to the back and that was the end of that.

And yes, I was that lead off leg. Big softie was born a long time ago.

So the lesson? You need to have a good lead off leg who will get out and set up the squad. It can go a long way in a crowded field off a waterfall start. 4x4, 4x8 or DMR. It applies to all three this weekend.

So with those little tips in the back of my mind, let’s dive into the relay analysis. For a list of some of the best times for each of these teams (in a randomly assigned order) feel free to skip down a post.

Heat 1

Bishop Shanahan
The boys from Shanahan took big strides forward this year. They’ve now contested the last three state championships and, although they are essentially Penn Relays rookies, they do have a nice pocket of big race experience to fall back on. Kolimago has been a solid lead-off man, running in that role for a couple years, and he’s a senior who will hopefully handle the moment well. Considering these guys were sub 8 indoors, there’s little reason to doubt their ability to get back towards that time in this meet on the right day. However, they have been relatively quiet in the early spring results.

The key here is likely going to be Seamus Fromhartz, the team’s best leg a year ago, who was coming back from an injury during XC and is still building back up to peak fitness. If he can recapture his peak form from a year ago (he split 1:54) that adds a nice dimension to this relay. Logan Yoquinto, the team’s gutsy sophomore, has a big chance to shine on the big stage. Lots of sophomores have been grabbing the spotlight recently and Yoquinto could be next in line. He ran a very impressive anchor leg indoors and, conceivably, could split down around 1:56 in the right position.

Bottom Line: They will likely miss out on a trip to the COA unless they either have a breakthrough performance from one of the seniors or get a very consistent line up with no one above 2 flat.

Bonner

Bonner may come up in with one of the slower seed times, but they also come in with some of the biggest upside. Sean Sullivan was an indoor state medalist at the mile and ran 1:55 last spring for 800. But Dave Whitfield might be the team's biggest weapon after his huge breakthrough mark of 1:55 at O'Hara. Very few teams can boast multiple 1:55 guys.

The pressure will be on the team's remaining two legs to step in and make a statement about the small squad's depth. If just one of them has a breakthrough day and ends up around 2 flat or under, this becomes a very intriguing under dog.

Bottom Line: They are a long shot for the COA, but they have the legs to make things very interesting on race day. Especially if Whitfield/Sullivan has a huge lead off leg to set the stage.

Heat 2

GFS
I've already gone on record predicting these guys to make the finals on our Penn Relays edition of TheRoundHouse, so I suppose I can't back out now. However, I think the lead off leg will be critical for these guys. Personally, I like the idea of Dahl leading off again like he did indoors, but I think Hepp could be pretty capable in that position as well (and he has experience leading off at Penn which can't hurt). They middle legs will have some pressure as guys who are a bit younger and less experienced in the big moment, but they handled the state landscape pretty well with a couple PR type performances. I don't think they are going to make up ground if the team is out of position, but if they get it in a good spot, I think they can hold ground nicely.

I still feel weird talking about GFS in the 4x8 instead of the DMR, but I'm really excited to see this change. It's good for Dahl and it may be good for the team as well. GFS as a program has been to Penn a number of times in the last decade, so they've got some experience as a school and, with last year's run, some experience as individuals. The pieces are here for a nice run, but they don't decide races based on my blog posts (if only).

Bottom line: This one very well might come down to Grayson Hepp, the senior leader of the squad. If he clocks a 1:54-1:55 type mark, it's hard to doubt this crew, even in a bit of an unfamiliar stage.

Penn Wood

So Penn Wood has been a bit of a mystery for me to place. I think they have a monster group of sprinters, but their 4x8 results have been a bit more inconsistent. Their best two guys, Manyeah and Seck, rarely contest the 800 (Seck is a beast at 400, Manyeah has been mostly high jumping it looks like?) and their core is a decent amount of sprint transfers. However, sprint transfers can be a beautiful think at 800 meters. You can’t teach speed.

I’m most interested to see who their 4th leg is and how fast he can run. Based on Penn Wood’s usual line up, they could be in fantastic position through the first two legs (Manyeah to Seck to x to x) which means if they have get a gutsy run out of the back legs (Jahi Smith and someone else) they could steal a spot in the COA. Who is it going to be that steps up? Todd Jackson or maybe Kenneth Johnson, another 400 guy who could move up and join the others?

Bottom Line: A legit sleeper here to make the COA if their front two legs run to their potential and the back two legs just race and ride the momentum. I want to see Manyeah/Seck run 1:54 on race day.

Heat 3

State College
The indoor state champ has made the COA finals each year for the past decade in the 4x8. I know that seems like a jinx, but it's just worth mentioning as a stat guy. SC also returns 3 guys who ran on last year's team, made the final in 2014 and, oh yeah, ran 7:45 indoors for 2nd at nationals. Add in a Millrose Games victory and this team has all the pieces.

I suppose the only concern I could have is that Owen Wing, their usual lead off man, has never raced Penn before and is, technically, their slowest 800 guy. So conceivably they could get buried off the start. However, I don't see that happening as Wing is coming off a strong 4:23 1600 PR. And, worse case scenario, they have a 1:54-1:56-1:52 threesome behind him ready to make chase.

I'm already kinda putting these guys in the finals (dangerous I know and I hope they aren't thinking like that) and I'm very excited to see how they stack up against the Jamaicans and the other national schools. Keep in mind, we haven't had a COA champ in the 4x8 in the last decade (2nd twice) and I'd love to see us get over the hump with this squad.

Bottom Line: I think this team is in the finals and finished top 3. Maybe wins. Maybe gets close to 7:40 (which I would think would win). No pressure of course.

CB West

I think State College is the clear PA favorite, but CB West seems to be the clear #2 pick. They made the finals a year ago and return 3 pieces from that team. They have 3 guys at 1:57 or faster this spring and they have a gutsy, capable anchor leg in Rock Fortna (although don't be stunned if he ends up in a different spot).

I'm interested to see if their 4th leg can step up and make them a clear team to watch not only in the prelims but also in the finals. I'm also interested to see if Carter Zerweck continues his hot streak he's on right now. Kids running great right now at just the right time.

Bottom Line: I'm a big fan of this team and, assuming no bad luck, I think they are through to the next day. However, nothing is guaranteed.

CB East

It's odd. I feel like the only talk CB East's 4x8 has gotten with respect to Penn is "how will the 4x8 affect Jake Brophy's 3k?" It's like we forget that these guys made finals in this race a year ago and were very close to doing the same thing two years ago. This is a program with serious chops.

Indoors, the team didn't run Jake Brophy or David Endres (break out sub 2 frosh) on their relay and still nearly medaled in the 4x8 before their DQ (and had 3 sub 2 legs by my watch). Brophy is still a star and even if the 8 isn't his best event, it's hard to imagine he won't deliver a huge leg if needed (if he gets the baton out of it, he may go for a jog to save for the 3k, who knows). Shahideh ran 1:56 last year a couple times and Kettleberger was a key member of the squad that made the COA last year as well.

Bottom Line: If Endres can handle the spotlight, there's not a clear weak spot on this squad (and there's actually a ton of depth). I don't have them in my COA, but they have the experience and the talent to get there without a doubt. Plus they have that extra motivation racing against their rivals from the west.

Worth noting, I definitely didn't have them in last year and, bang, they surprised me. Why can't it happen again?

Upper Dublin

Happy to see our 4x8 getting in the mix for the first time since I was wearing the Red and Gray. Just like my team, these guys snuck in during the spring, but unlike my team, they don't rely on one guy to do all the heavy lifting on the anchor. That should hopefully keep them competitive with a more balanced attack.

That being said, they will need at least one guy to step up and take on a leadership role. This team has been very good at 4x8 and 4x4 the last two years, but they haven't been great. I'm curious if they will show flashes of greatness when they arrive on this big stage.

Bottom Line: They are definitely a long shot to make the COA, but I think this will be a very valuable experience for this team/relay. Very excited to watch the Cardinals race.

Heat 4

Abington
I watched Abington fairly closely in last year's 4x8 prelims (I was standing next to their coach so it was bound to happen) and they quietly had one of the best performances of the day relative to expectations. Abington also qualified for the 4x8 COA in 2009, 2010 and 2011 (and finished 2nd overall in that final). They understand the formula, they've got some extra experience, and they've spent the past month running almost exclusively relays.

I talked about Penn Woods raw speed, but don't forget Abington's 4x8 is basically the same team that won state gold in the 4x4 (well, it's actually probably more like 50-50 but still). They've got the wheels to do damage and they ran 7:50 indoors. In retrospect, I feel silly for overlooking them on the show. They've got 3 guys with sub 2 marks open indoors (don't think anybody else in the state had that) and their last guy is down to 2 flat outdoors at the very least.

Bottom Line: I think they've got an excellent shot at being one of the top 3-4 teams in PA at this race. Sophomore Cameron Mitchell will be an important piece, but they will also need a big run from Jake Good if he ends up the lead off leg. If their lead off leg runs 1:56-1:57, I think they will be running this back on Saturday.

North Penn

Out of all the teams with historic resumes, North Penn has the best when it comes to the 3200. Although they don't have quite the same prowess in recent years, this program has absolutely dominated this event for the past few decades and was PAs only qualifiers in the 2007 and 2008 finals.

This year's team, however, is a bit of a question mark. After they left some of their sprinters off the indoor squad, there's speculation they may do something similar on Friday morning. As one of the lower seeds entering the meet, they will need all the pieces they can to compete at a high level.

That being said, I'm betting that Dante Watson and maybe another 400 type jump in and help out on the 4x8 (plenty of time to recover before the 4x4 on Saturday). I can't wait to see what kind of wheels Watson has on the relay and I hope he runs an early leg and gets after it. Also interested to see how the sophomore O'Toole rises to the occasion.

Bottoms Line: I'm not expecting a performance to rival the North Penn squads of old, but I am looking to see if this team can prove it is a school the rise this spring.

LaSalle

Just like Abington last year, LaSalle really impressed me in the Penn Relays prelims last year. I think it was one of the best showings by this relay in the last two years. It doesn't hurt that, like Abington, LaSalle has qualified for the COA twice in the last 7 years and they also, unlike Abington, added a Penn Relays wheel in 2013 for the DMR. So the infrastructure is there for an upset and a COA experience.

And the materials are there as well. At the Knights invitational, the LaSalle distance squad dominated, with prominent wins by Evan Addison and Patrick Grant (a huge 1:56 time). They will need to harness that momentum heading into Penn as the Explorers have arguably struggled a bit in their last couple state appearances on the track.

Bottom Line: I love this team and this program, but I can't pull the trigger on a COA birth. The key to a big day might be their order and whoever ends up being their third leg. If Grant gets the baton in a good spot, I think he will run tough, but I'm not sure he has the raw ability to hawk down the field. Of course there's a chance Addison may end up on the anchor (which would be fun). If you remember, this was the meet sophomore Tom Coyle had his first big break (splitting 1:54). Your move sophomore Evan Addison.

CR North

The Forrests have been on a monster run this year. Despite their youth, the team has peaked perfectly for the past two state championships and finished with a surprise 4x8 medal during the winter. Now, no one would be surprised if they medal outdoors, but they are still far from favorites to even finish in the top half of PA's squads this meet.

But CRN has been on fire, lifted by the hot streak of Bryan Keller, who just added a jaw dropping 1:56 gold medal win to his resume at Abington. Sam Early also cracked two minutes in the open 8, giving this team 4 (maybe 5 depending on Ryan Campbell) legit sub 2 legs. They are arguably the deepest squad we have to offer outside of reigning state champs State College.

Bottom Line: I don't have them making the final. That being said, I'm pretty surprised they haven't gotten more talk. This could be a legit dark horse team. Especially if their lead off leg, whoever it ends up being, sets the tone for the rest of the squad.

Final predictions. I've gotten more optimistic in the past couple days! I'm on board for 4 PA teams in the final: SC, CBW, GFS, Abington.

The DMR

O'Hara
PA's only school in the DMR is a good one. As we discussed on our latest episode of TheRoundHouse, the magic number for this team seems to be 10:20. They ran 10:24 indoors with a solo anchor leg and some doublers, but they also had a near perfect race to pull off the upset. Only one of the 3 of us on the show took these guys to go sub 10:20 in this meet.

For the record, O'Hara boys, it was me so feel free to rock that etrain shirt this weekend.

Here's my case for a big day for OH. First of all, they have something to prove after their fall at indoor nationals. Second of all, this team has a pretty nice history at this meet (although not a spotless history I will admit) and has qualified in this event 5 times in the last decade (could have been 6 if they ran last year). Plus, I think their legs set up very nicely for this event. Morro is a natural 1200 guy who ran lead off on two state title teams. The Jones boys are not afraid to go out hard and keep competitive (Justin ran 1:57 last year). Ryan James will have to bottle some of that same magic he had indoors, but he should at least have some more competition out there when the baton ends up in his hands.

I could see these guys pulling a CB South 2012, putting together a solid front 3 and letting their anchor try and steal it. 2012 CB South came in with even more modest PRs (besides probably Gregor) and finished 2nd.

Bottom Line: The DMR is loaded, so even a sub 10:20 mark is going to put you in a crowded space. It's going to be tough for these guys no doubt, but if they keep their heads above water they will at least leave with some real nice PRs.

I really like the 2012 CB South comparison so feel free to look that one up.

Relays by the Numbers

Here are some numbers I found for the Penn Relays relays. Words are coming soon. Share your own numbers and thoughts as per usual!

State College – 7:45.60

Projected Line Up: Owen Wing 4:23.97/1:59.3h, Nick Feffer 4:20.66/1:59.59/1:55s, Anthony Degleris 1:59.21/1:56s, Alex Milligan 1:57.02/1:52s

Bishop Shanahan – 7:59.61

Projected Line Up: Chris Kolimago 1:59s, Seamus Breslin 2:06.1i/2:02s, Seamus Fromhartz 1:58.11/1:26.04, Logan Yoquinto 1:25.29/1:57s (Bradly Ingraham 2:04.30, Keegan Hughes 49.77)

GFS – 7:52.95

Projected Line Up: Nick Dahl 1:54.20, Jonnie Plass 1:59.18, Colin Riley 2:00s, Grayson Hepp 1:55.50 (Gordon Goldstein, Zach Goldberg, Dan Stassen)

Penn Wood – 7:58.66

Projected Line Up: Dennis Manyeah 1:56.13/1:22.08, Ndiaga Seck 48.97/1:56s, Todd Jackson 2:06.32/2:04s, Jahi Smith 2:01.42/1:27.49 (Kenneth Johnson 49.82)

North Penn – 8:00.07

Projected Line Up: Daniel Santiago 2:02.71, Dante Watson 49.88/1:59.00, Brendan O’Toole 4:25.35, Elgin Horton 2:05.23 (Tariq Banes 2:06.06, Matthew Gain 2:06.13, Nathan Baxter 2:06.95)

CR North – 8:02.05

Projected Line Up: Ben Heintz 4:25/2:01.09/1:58s, Sam Early 1:59.37, Matt Haldeman 4:29/1:59s, Bryan Keller 4:25/1:56.28 (Ryan Campbell 4:26)

Abington – 7:50.09

Projected Line Up: Jake Good 1:57.87, Cameron Mitchell 1:59.50/1:56s, Josh Coleman 2:00.49, Keion Broadus 1:59.02/1:56s (Harpeet Singh 1:58s, Aaron Sooknanan 50.56)

CB West – 7:50.03

Projected Line Up: Carter Zerweck 1:57.20, Jake Claricurzio 1:57.12, Alec Hofer 1:59s, Rock Fortna 1:56.37 (Declan McDonald 2:06.93, Teagan Fortna)

Upper Dublin – 8:05.19

Projected Line Up: Troy Green 2:02.03, George Weems 50.66, Ben Brugger 2:06.80, Riley Hannon

Bonner – 8:07.94

Projected Line Up: Sean Sullivan 4:23.57y/1:58s, Dave Whitfield 1:55.8, Anthony Harper 2:06.95/2:04s, Mike Mercanti 2:06s

CB East – 8:01.44

Projected Line Up: Matt Eisenlord 2:03, David Endres 1:59.2h, Louis Kettelberger 2:04, Jake Brophy 1:56s/1:58.71 (Ata Shahideh 51.60/2:04.18)

LaSalle – 8:00.31

Projected Line Up: Brendan Price 2:01.56, Evan Addison 4:23.94/2:01.89/1:58s, Mac Costonis 2:03.37, Patrick Grant 1:56.65

Cardinal O’Hara – 10:24.52

Projected Line Up: Rob Morro 1:58.40/4:28.34, Tamir Jones 52.69/50s, Justin Jones 2:01.05/1:58s, Ryan James 4:31.50/4:24s

TheRoundHouse IV

The gang talks Penn Relays in the latest edition of TheRoundHouse

Penn Relays PA Individual Predictions

by Jarrett Felix

If you like Penn Relays discussion, you may want to check out TheRoundHouse here on the blog at 9 o'clock tonight. Also be on the lookout for a Relay Prediction Post that will be coming in the (hopefully) not so distant future.

Let's get to it.

Mile

Despite lots of success in a variety of events, PA has struggled to breakthrough for the gold in the Penn Relays Mile. In the past 8 years our highest finisher is Tom Kehl of Father Judge (who placed 3^rd in 2010) and we actually didn’t even have any qualifiers for the event in 2009 or 2011. However, I think this year’s crew of runners is the deepest field we have ever assembled for the event, so maybe this is our year for redemption. But which member of our pack will breakthrough for PA’s top spot?

Quite frankly, your guess is better than mine at this point as this crew is incredibly balanced. To stop speaking in generalities, let me outline the four runners who have been invited to participate in this race: Jaxson Hoey (DTW), Mike Kolor (Seneca Valley), Josh Hoey (DTW) and Nick Dahl (GFS). Two seniors, a sophomore and a junior. If you count Dahl’s 4:10 split on the DMR at the Armory for Indoor Nats, than Josh Hoey is the only runner of the foursome who hasn’t clocked a 4:10 1600 in the last 12 months (of course he was a freshman in high school for a good chunk of that 12 months so what did you expect). It will almost certainly take something in the 4:09-4:11 range to win this race (assuming things don’t get too tactical), so these guys will need to be in top form to compete for gold, but it’s not unlikely for one of these guys to drop that kind of mark considering each runner’s personal bests. When you combine all these greater than zero odds, PA has to be feeling pretty good about itself.

I can’t speak for what’s outside the state borders, but I’ll give a brief rundown of the PA boys below. For the sake of fairness, I will go from slowest mile PR to fastest.

Josh Hoey 4:17.45 @ Indoor States (4:15.71 DMR split at Nationals)

Josh may be the slowest in this field on paper, but he’s far from the slowest in actuality. In recent months, Josh Hoey has defeated the reigning mile and 3k state champions, dropped massive PRs at 400 and 800 (1:54.11), and gutted out an anchor leg against Drew Hunter. All as just a sophomore. In terms of raw talent, there have been incredibly few frosh/sophs to have achieved what Josh has in such a short period of time (recently it’s pretty much Craig Miller and that’s it). Without a freshman cross season in the PIAA, the middle Hoey has grabbed 3 individual state medals, a team gold, a team silver, an individual bronze and an individual silver. He’s run poised on the big stage including his first ever trip to Hershey, Shippensburg and PSU. This will not be his first trip to Penn, but it will be his first individual race on this stage. It’s different, certainly, but having the advantage of being here before is big at Penn.

I like the improvements he’s made in his finishing kick and I like his consistency. On the flip side, he’s going to need cut about 5 seconds off his PR to be in the mix for gold. That’s a big PR, but not an impossible one. He just cut about 3-4 seconds off his 800 best.

Nick Dahl 4:17.18 @ Millrose Games (4:10.39 DMR split at Nationals)

A year ago, Dahl was the super soph we were all talking about. After running an absurd 9:02 at Henderson, he went to nationals and ran 9:01.81 for a full two mile (the equivalent of about 8:58 for 3200) and placed 3^rd. That mark put him in the top 10 runners in PA history for the event as just a 10^th grader.

But despite that mark, Dahl’s speed was still a question mark. In fact, the last time the Hoeys, Kolor and Dahl were all in the same race (Meet of Champs Mile at Henderson last year), Dahl was at the back of the group, a decent bit back of Jax and Kolor. But that slowly began to change this past winter. Nick dropped an early 4:14 split at Yale, kicked his way to a spot in the Millrose Games and then dropped his epic 4:10 anchor leg on everyone. His 800 chops have also vastly improved as he split a 1:55 lead off leg at indoor states before dropping a 1:54.20 for 800 last weekend (technically Friday night, which may not be a weekend to all of you out there).

Dahl’s got monster strength and has now rounded it out with speed. That’s a dangerous combination and it makes Nick a real contender in any style of race. He’s had recent experience in a big time mile (Millrose) and although he wasn’t exactly competitive in that race (roughly 6 seconds behind Jaxson Hoey), he grew a lot from that race. Things will be a bit different this time around. He’s also been in a Penn Relays field before (DMR last year) which gives him a little extra experience. However, Dahl is the only one of these 4 runners who will compete in an individual event earlier in the day (GFS has a very competitive 4x8).

Mike Kolor - 4:12.37 @ PA Distance Festival LY

Much like Dahl, Kolor has made great progress in the speed department this year. Kolor dropped to a 1:53 PB during indoors and helped lead his SV 4x8 and 4x4 teams to state qualifying type marks. He still has the strength though (4:15 just last race, cruising to victory) and is looking strong and healthy for an extended period of training (a luxury he didn’t have last year). Kolor, like Dahl and Jax Hoey, has some big mile experience, having run the Boston Indoor Mile this past winter.

Kolor is still looking for his big win as last year was a slew of close calls. He finished alongside Jeff VanKooten at Baldwin and WPIALs, took 4^th at states and then finished just a fraction behind Jaxson Hoey at the PA Distance Festival. That should add a little extra fire to his finishing kick in this race. Kolor’s never been in a Penn Relays event before and will be traveling the longest distance to get here. Only Ryan Gil has finished as the top PA individual in the mile/3k from the WPIAL the past 9 years, a trend Mike will be hoping to reverse.

Jaxson Hoey – 4:11.07 @ Millrose Games

Jaxson has competed in the Penn Relays the past two years, including this exact race as a sophomore in 2014. He ran at the Millrose Games this past winter, Outdoor Nationals and USA Junior Nats last spring and won the past two state titles in the mile/16. His PR is the best of the group and he comes in as our top seed (3^rd overall). His speed was strong enough to carry him to 4^th at indoor states (on the double) for the 800, but his strength was enough to finish a close 2^nd at XC states on the Hershey hills. So, to summarize, he’s good at running.

Jaxson won his last race by a big time margin, but he hasn’t popped that real fast time so far this spring. His brother and Ryan Barton of DTW apparently both sit ahead of him on the state rankings for now, but that could easily change in an instant this weekend.

Order of Finish (Prediction):

Kolor

Jax

Josh

Dahl

I think it’s going to be incredibly close between these four and any of them could cross the line ahead of any one else. But if I have to pick (and apparently I feel like I have to), this is what I will choose.

3,000m

While PA has struggled in the mile, we haven’t felt the same sort of pain in the 3k. In fact, PA has had the champion in 2008, 2009, and 2013 and had top 5 finishes in 7 of the past 9 years. The smart money, therefore, says PA should have at least one runner contending for the title. The etrain money? It says we will have three guys competing for the title.

In the 3k, PA will be represented by Jake Brophy (CB East), Dominic Hockenbury (Lake Lehman), Nate Henderson (JP McCaskey) and Jeff Kirshenbaum (Methacton). Amazingly, Kirshenbaum has run 9:19 for a full two miles (during indoor!) and still ends up overlooked in this group. This is the same kid who broke 16 at Hershey this year and somehow only finished 9^th (amazing). I think Jeff is just a small tier behind these guys, but still on a really nice trajectory for an epic season. I’m hoping we get all 4 of our guys in the top 8 of this race and, although I expect Jeff to be our #4 man, I do think he has the potential to put up the kind of time that would be PA #1 in the right year.

But I think the race for top PA honors (and perhaps top everyone honors) will come down to Brophy, Hockenbury and Henderson. Brophy and Dom have been the big names for some time now. Combined, they have 7 state titles (and counting) with brilliant XC resumes and very quick 3200 PRs. Each of these competed in the 3k final last year (Brophy also competed 2 years ago) and will have that extra bit of experience that Nate will be missing on race night.

But Brophy and Hock are much less similar than they may seem on paper. Hockenbury is not known for his speed or his kick (although both are quite good, he just ran a 4:16 full mile), but he is known for being a gutsy grinder who will push the pace early and often. We saw it indoors over 5k and we could see it this outdoors at Penn in another high quality national field. Keep in mind Hock seems very similar, on paper at least, to Dominic Deluca, who ran 8:21 for 3k in 2014, one of the fastest times in PA 3k history. I honestly think this Dominic could be in line for a similar kind of breakthrough.

Meanwhile, Jake Brophy is known more for his patience and his finishing sprint. He dropped a massive final 800 to win XC states a year ago, patiently ran down the majority of the field at Penn Relays last year and then added to his legacy with his indoor states finishing kick for gold. Jake has already run a 4:15 1600 in a dual meet and split a 1:56 on the 4x8 that qualified here so we know his speed hasn’t gone anywhere since PSU. Considering his resume, this is the kind of runner PA track fans are hoping can pocket a victory, but he will have to be sharp on race day and make sure he stays close enough that he can utilize that kick effectively.

Then there is the newcomer Nathan Henderson. After a relatively quiet indoor campaign in 2015, Henderson went outdoors and dropped all the way to 9:08 for 3200. As just a sophomore. He then dominated the XC scene in District 3 before moving to indoors where he quietly produced some solid invite wins and fast times. Although his indoor state race was impressive (he finished a well-earned third behind Brophy and Hock in the 3k), the start of his spring has been absolutely jaw dropping. The biggest knock on Henderson might have been his finishing kick, but then he soloed a 4:14 for 1600 (breaking a Vince McNally meet record) and, according to twitter just this afternoon, Henderson clocked a 1:53 4x8 split for JP McCaskey (they ran 8:03). That’s one heck of a split.

I think Henderson could end up coming out of left field and surprising considering the momentum tear he is on, but I’m a little bit nervous about his inexperience on this stage and in this setting. Plus, I’d still like to see him close to last lap or two of a 32 with the top kickers. But I will say his mid race surging ability is one of the best in the field and that could keep him in contention for long enough to close it out.

Brophy is the favorite, but I’m a tiny bit worried about the 4x8 being in his legs a little bit. I’m also a little worried about a fast pace and what affect, if any, that will have on his strategy and his ability to kick. Meanwhile, Hockenbury should get the most help he’s had in a while for a fast paced long distance run. If that’s true, maybe he grinds his competitors into the ground and steals it. I really think Hock also learned a lot having run in this race last year. I bet he comes out the gates with a vastly improved time.

Prediction for finish?

Brophy

Hockenbury

Henderson

But I think the top two may be decided by only a second or so and Brophy may be in 3^rd out of those three with 800 or even 400 to go. It’s just hard to pick against the guy. So I won’t. 

Penn Relays Discussion Night

Well, the Penn Relays are under a week away and I can smell that fine Philadelphia air, hear the whoops of a finishing kick and see a computer screen which has the words I'm typing right now slowly appearing. It's truly a magical time.

Here at the blog, we will be celebrating Penn Relays as best we can with many Relay themed activities (I'll be using the label PRatPR) and we are kicking things off by bringing the conversation straight to the people with a Penn Relays themed discussion night.

In case you have never experienced a discussion night before or need a reminder, we will be opening up the comment section for about an hour tonight (somewhere around 8:30, depending on when I get back from my run) and comments will go live immediately to promote a fun discussion of the latest in PA track and field news. Feel free to start early or stay late by commenting on this post.

Here are some questions that I came up with while looking at the entries (full entries and past results for the Penn Relays can be found by clicking around here).

Who will be PA's Top Miler: Hoey, Kolor, Dahl or Hoey?
Who will be PA's Top 3ker: Brophy, Hockenbury, Henderson or Kirshebaum?
Will Brophy and Dahl run on their 4x8 early in the morning on Friday? How will this effect their races later that night?
How many teams will make the COA Finals for the 4x8 from PA? Who will they be?
Which team is your biggest sleeper in the 4x8? Who are you looking most forward to watching race?
How will O'Hara do as PA's lone team in the DMR? Can they shock the world with another top finish/victory?
Which 4x400 teams will shine on Saturday?
Shout out to Jordan Geist, PA's out of this world Shot Putter who got snubbed from our show last night. How will he do on the big stage at Penn?

And feel free to go off script and offer up your own!

We want to hear all your thoughts, predictions and other ideas related to the Penn Relays in anticipating of our upcoming previews and yet another edition of TheRoundHouse next Monday at 9 PM. Super in depth previews are already in the works as well. Also keep in mind, etrain will be on site at the Penn Relays to help cover the event live and in person. There will be an official two hour meet and greet block on Penn Relays Friday. More on that to come, but if you want to meet the man behind the blog, ask him some questions, and perhaps even end up in a TheRoundHouse segment, this will be your chance.

PS - Feel free to discuss other things as well like the upcoming Shippensburg Invitational. We are mainly here to stir the pot rather than steer the boat if you know what I'm saying.