Well folks, this is it. I've finally completed my last state preview articles. I hope you enjoy. As always, #DerailtheTrain. I'll figure out over the next couple days if I'll be in attendance at states and keep you guys in the loop about that.
Update: I will be in Shippensburg on Saturday morning so be on the lookout for a glasses wearing kid in a green etrain shirt if you’d like to say hello. Best of luck to everybody this weekend.
AA 3200m
AA 4x800m
AA 1600m
AA 800m
AAA 3200m
AAA 4x800m
AAA 1600m
AAA 800m
For fun, let's look back on where I predicted the state champions would finish in each year that I've been making predictions on this blog. Interesting that I have been alternating between nailing AAA and completely missing. Bad sign for this year's predictions. AA on the other hand has been consistently not that great. So ... bad sign also?
2017
AA
3200m - Ben Bumgarner (2nd)
4x800m - Seneca (1st)
1600m - Tristan Forsythe (2nd)
800m - Rob Reichenbaugh (5th)
AAA
3200m - Nathan Henderson (1st)
4x800m - CB West (1st)
1600m - Isaac Kole (1st)
800m - Josh Hoey (1st)
2016
AA
3200m - Dominic Hockenbury (1st)
4x800m - Seneca (3rd)
1600m - Domenic Perretta (1st)
800m - Domenic Perretta (1st)
AAA
3200m - Matt Kravitz (3rd)
4x800m - State College (1st)
1600m - Alex Milligan (4th)
800m - Joe Espinal (Not Medaling)
2015
AA
3200m - Dominic Hockenbury (2nd)
4x800m - Wyomissing (5th)
1600m - Domenic Perretta (1st)
800m - Domenic Perretta (1st)
AAA
3200m - Zach Brehm (1st)
4x800m - Pennsbury (1st)
1600m - Jaxson Hoey (1st)
800m - John Lewis (1st)
2014
AA
3200m - Dominic Hockenbury (2nd)
4x800m - Washington (2nd)
1600m - Domenic Perretta (1st)
800m - Domenic Perretta (2nd)
AAA
3200m - Ross Wilson (2nd)
4x800m - State College (2nd)
1600m - Zach Brehm (3rd)
800m - Kyle Francis (3rd)
Showing posts with label PAHS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PAHS. Show all posts
2018 State Previews: AAA 3200m
AAA 3200m
The Stage
Here we go. I have no idea what order any of you guys
read these in (or in what order I will post them up), but in terms of the order
I wrote these bad boys in, this was my last one. I’m going to try not to cry as
I set the stage for the last state championship preview I’ll ever write for my
blog. Hopefully I’ve saved the best for last.
The biggest story in this race has to be Neshaminy’s
Rusty Kujdych. As a senior, Kujdych has been nothing short of incredible on the
track. He won a state championship in cross country, posting together an impeccable
record against the best competition in the area and qualifying for the
Footlocker Finals. During indoors, Kujdych smashed his previous best in the
mile and rolled to a state championship in the 3k with one of the largest
margins of victory we’ve seen. Now, much like Justified, he’s one leg away from
the Triple Crown.
We haven’t seen a Triple Crown winner since Jason Weller
(not to be confused with Jayson Miller) pulled off the feat in 2006-2007. We
haven’t seen a AAA XC State Champ win an outdoor state gold since 2009 (Jimmy
Tarsnane) and the last three XC state champs have finished no better than 8th
in the 3200. So Kujdych is fighting an uphill battle.
The good news is that last year Nate Henderson came
pretty close to that Triple Crown. He won the second two legs (a combo that
hadn’t been completed since Weller) and was second in XC. If not for the
arrival of all-time great Noah Affolder, the Triple Crown would have been his.
But there’s bad news too and that bad news is Noah Beveridge. The Butler senior
has been waiting patiently for his first state championship and after leaving
the last two dances with silver, he’s hungry for gold. Beveridge has run 4:12
and 9:09 this outdoors and likely contributed an impressive 4x8 split to the
Butler relay (he flashed 1:54 speed last year on at least one split).
For whatever reason, the Kujdych-Beveridge match-up
reminds me of a 2014 match-up between Tony Russell and Ross Wilson. In that
race, Russell was going for his own triple crown of sorts: he had won the XC
state title and the indoor mile meaning a 32 gold would give him three. Wilson
had been consistently topped by Russell, but on that final lap, Ross found
another gear and dug deep to finally knock off Tony in their last head to head
contest. In the process, Ross clocked an 8:56 to break a long standing state
record that seemed like it would never be broken (ironically, Ross’s record was
broken a year later). Maybe Beveridge can find that Ross Wilson-esque gear and
bring home the gold. Either that or Kujdych goes Secretariat on everybody.
Or, I suppose, neither of those could happen.
The Race
Believe it or not, there are other people in this race
besides the pair I’ve just droned on about for a few precious final paragraphs.
Interestingly, if you look at the performance list, you can see a lot of guys
with times closely packed together near these top two. District One has a
couple great runners from great programs in Spencer Smucker and Ryan Campbell.
Those guys sit at #3 and #4 in the seedings and are on the short list of sub
9:20 guys. Campbell is rounding back in to form at the perfect time, dropping a
big season’s best at districts and indicating he can be in the conversation for
ore in Shippensburg. Meanwhile, Smucker has found good success in his new event
and was the closest runner to Kujdych at the Henderson Invite 3200 earlier this
month.
Dan McGoey of North Allegheny deserves a mention. The
sophomore established himself as a prime time performer at this past fall’s
state championships. It was here that McGoey took third overall, behind just
Kujdych and Beveridge, and nearly even took down the reigning WPIAL champ in
the final straight. It marked the third straight year a sophomore placed in the
top 3 in the AAA state championship (a previously absurd concept by the way).
The last two guys? Sam Affolder (2nd in the 3200, 2nd in
the 1600) and Josh Hoey (3rd in the 1600). McGoey hasn’t shown quite
the same speed that these two have (they were 4:10ish milers), but it’s not
crazy to speculate he could place in the top 3 at another state championship
this spring like these two did.
McGoey is joined in the top 10 seeds by classmates
Christian Fitch (Fox Chapel), Cole Walker (Unionville) and Zach Leachman (Mars).
None of these three have hopped on the medal stand just yet, but they all have
a chance at bling in this race. I particularly like Fitch’s odds as he has been
an incredibly consistent presence in the long distance events recently which is
impressive for such a young talent.
Oh, by the way, the AA XC State Champ is in this race.
People may not realize (he’s seeded 23rd), but Isaac Davis of Jersey
Shore is in this field and you can bet he’s going to try and pull off the
upset. Davis has had by far his best season on the track which comes fresh on
the heels of a monster XC campaign. I don’t think people quite realize how good
Davis was during XC, particularly his 15:56 time at states (which came with a massive
margin of victory). He’s beaten Brendan Miller this year and has clocked 9:24
for 3200. I could see him dropping a big PR.
The District 3 champ, Andrew Foster, has scratched this
event to focus on the 4x8. That opens the door for Mechanicsburg senior Morgan
Cupp. Cupp was a stud during XC and has had some nice flashes of brilliance on
the track as well. The loss to Foster last week should act as some extra
motivation heading into the state meet, but he will need to get past that 9:30
barrier which has been blocking his path to date. Ian Miller of Manheim
Township, an indoor state medalist at 3k, seems like a potential sleeper from
that district as well.
Some other quick hits: I’m in Nate Price’s corner. I
think the General McLane junior would be in the state title talks if he was in
AA (like he is for XC). This race may be a bit too quick for him, but I think
the last medal spots are wide open. Carlisle has three guys in this race and LaSalle
has two. I never count out those programs at the state championships. The
District 11 guys sitting at #11 and #12 are good value picks in prediction contests
as well. The District has more than held its own in AAA the best few seasons,
most notably seeing Colin Abert nearly win a state championship in 2015 (to
bring things full circle, Abert would have been under Ross Wilson’s state
record, but Zach Brehm beat him to it with an 8:55.60).
OK, for the last time, here are my picks:
8. Jacob McKenna 9:24.00
7. Ryan Campbell 9:22.31
6. Morgan Cupp 9:21.70
5. Spencer Smucker 9:19.48
4. Dan McGoey 9:19.45
3. Isaac Davis 9:12.99
2. Rusty Kujdych 9:04.88
1. Noah Beveridge 9:04.25
2018 State Previews: AA 3200m
AA 3200m
The Stage
With Ben Bumgarner and Zach Skolnekovich graduating, the
top returner for this year’s state championship is also the #1 seed – Ben Miller
of Upper Dauphin. The senior, who placed 3rd a year ago, owns the
top seed with a time of 9:21.05. That’s 11 seconds better than the field. He’s
also got the fastest PR and 3k best (he ran an 8:34 at the Penn Relays) and a
15:40 5k PR from this past fall. It feels like Miller’s championship to lose.
That being said, there are is a long list of title
hopefuls trying to take it from. Heading the list is Andrew Stanley of Southern
Huntingdon. The senior won the 3200 at the District 6 championships (against
strong competition) and was also likely a key contributor on Southern
Huntingdon’s district champion 4x8 plus he added an SQS in the 16. Last year, Stanley
made a name for himself by posting a 9:29 and finishing in 4th place
overall at states, less than a second behind Miller.
Also in contention will be a group of sophomores who are
running well above their age. Ben Kuhn of Wyomissing, Andrew Healey of Holy
Cross and Ben Hoffman of Elk County Catholic all look like dangerous sleeper
candidates in this event. 10th graders Tanner Walter (Milton),
Krystof Lapotsky (Mt Carmel), Scott Routledge (Winchester Thurston) and Adam
Hessler (Freedom) are also among the top 12 overall seeds entering Saturday’s
final.
The Race
As mentioned at the top, I think Miller has a great
chance to win this. He looked incredible at the District 3 championships,
running a new best of 9:21. Plus, his 3k best from the Penn Relays converts to
about 9:12. Those times are in another ball park from what we’ve seen out of
this group to date. We know Miller has great strength and won’t be afraid to
push the pace and put the pressure on his opponents. He has the tools needed to
win his first state gold.
That being said, any time you have a big favorite out
there to be shot at, you can expect there to be challengers. Andrew Stanley was
very aggressive in his racing strategy at this meet last year and won’t be
afraid of Miller. Although I think Brendan has made big strides since his final
race last spring, Stanley finished right alongside him at the state
championships so it’s not crazy to think he can keep it close again. Plus,
Stanley has shown some serious speed in recent weeks, most notably his golds at
the D6 championships.
However, I think the biggest challenger to Miller is
going to be Josh Lewis of North East. Lewis has already run in the 9:20s this
year, holding his own in a stacked field at Baldwin. Plus he has low 4:20s
speed on the track. The junior actually reminds me a bit of Miller a year ago.
Like Miller, Lewis had a breakout XC season during his 11th grade
year and won a district title against a strong field. However, at the state
championships, Miller faltered and finished outside the medals. That didn’t get
Brendan down and he ended up getting that coveted state medal in the spring with
a third place finish. Lewis is on a similar path, but has arguably been more
impressive than even Brendan was last year to this point. He still needs to
prove he can handle the pressure that comes with states, but if he brings his
best stuff to Shippensburg he might leave with gold.
One guy that I’ve barely touched on to date is Quinn
Serfass of Loyalsock. The senior has been incredibly consistent this year, but
has had the misfortunate of finding himself lost in the shuffle on more than
one occasion. He’s raced excellent competition like Jersey Shore’s Isaac Davis
and Brendan Miller as well as top mile guys like Leeser and Knoebel plus he’s
delivered 4x8 relay legs for a state qualifying squad. He’s got great range and
has always performed up to his capabilities in championship races, including strong
showings during last fall’s AA state championships and 2017’s 3200 state meet
(6th and #3 returner).
It’s very rare for a sophomore to win a state
championship, especially in the 3200. Since 2000, there’s only been one soph to
pull it off – Dominic Hockenbury back in 2014 (I think that was back when I
used to call him Huckleberry by accident). I think Ben Kuhn of Wyomissing and Andrew
Healey of Holy Cross both have the potential to make this race interesting, but
I’m not sure either will emerge victorious. Kuhn has been phenomenal on the
track this year and would have been a factor in the 1600 finals had he picked
that event (4:21 best). I think Kuhn is the best pure miler in this field which
could give him an advantage in a sprint finish. Meanwhile, Healey is fresh off
a 4:24 PR at his district championship. He hasn’t put together a super flashy
3200, but he also hasn’t had the push he will get at states. Healey was 9th
last year as a freshman. Fun fact, that’s better than Huckleberry (AKA
Hockenbury) placed at states his freshman season (11th).
I’ve got a long list of sleepers, probably too long to
completely list here but I’ll throw out some names. Watch the Penns Valley freshman
Colton Sands and Brendan Colwell, both were XC medalists. If they add medals in
this event, it will be one of the best all-around freshman campaigns in small
school history. Sands has been the faster of the pair thus far, but is slated
for a busy weekend of racing with the 1600 prelims and the 4x8 prelims on his
plate before this one. Jack Miller from Jenkintown was an absolute monster
during cross who crushed the 16 minute barrier at Paul Short and nearly knocked
off Brendan Miller at states in A. He’s had some solid success on the track,
but not to quite the same degree he did on the trails. Once it clicks for him
on the track, I think a time in the 9:30s or faster is coming.
This almost goes without saying, but the top seeds like
Horst, Driben, Sullivan, Gould, Walter and Lapotsky are all solid medal picks.
Only Driben competed here last year in this event so the others will be
rookies. It took 9:41 to medal in 2017 which means a PR performance from any of
these guys puts them right in the mix for a top spot.
Here’s my prediction for exactly how those top spots
unfold:
8. Jack Miller 9:37.91
7. Ben Hoffman 9:36.75
6. Andrew Stanley 9:29.03
5. Quinn Serfass 9:27.40
4. Ben Kuhn 9:27.06
3. Josh Lewis 9:26.48
2. Andrew Healey 9:25.57
1. Brendan Miller 9:19.75
2018 State Previews: AAA 800m
AAA 800m
The Stage
In 2016, the stage seemed set for absolute madness in the
AAA 800. District 12 stand outs Dave Whitfield of Bonner and Stephen McClellan
rocked their championship meet and entered as the top seeds. Although Jaxson
Hoey and Matt Wisner were in the race and had big meet pedigree, there was
still a general feeling among the state that these two could falter (whether
through sickness or doubling). However, almost no one saw Joe Espinal of Wilson
(11) coming. The senior went from a personal best of 1:55 to a 1:51.09 PR in a
blink and stunned the state landscape en route to gold.
For whatever reason, things feel similar to me this year.
Rarely does the state meet play out exactly as you suspect (or at least not as
I suspect) and you’ve got to call that one more wacky gold medalist to nail
your predictions. That was Espinal in 2016 (well, him and Matt Kravitz), Zach
Brehm in 2015 for the 3200 and Isaac Kole in 2017. And long before all that,
back in 2008, it was Tom Mallon.
Tyler Shue of Ephrata is hoping he can follow in Mallon’s
’08 footsteps. Shue was second at the indoor state championships behind only
Liam Conway (who is only running the 16 outdoors) and has been near invincible
this outdoor season. He will have tired legs for the 800 final (Ephrata is
among the title contenders in the 4x8), but he’s proven he can double. Plus,
the last two sophomores to win AAA gold in the 800 each also ran the 4x8
(Mallon in ’08 and Brehm in ’13).
But Shue will need to jump the two top seeds in the
competition to earn that gold. Collin Ebling of Pottsville proved me very wrong
at his district championship, running under 50 seconds for 400 meters before
turning around and crushing a 1:53.84 to win the 800 title over Sam Morgan of
Parkland. Ebling has dropped the 400 to go all in on the 800 and, as the #2
seed in the event, that looks like a smart decision. He may be the favorite on
paper.
Of course Franklin Regional’s Matt Busche will have
something to say about that. Busche, who was a state medalist last year on his
fourth race of the weekend, had a major breakthrough at the WPIAL
championships. After living in the 1:56 range so far this spring, Busche found
his legs at the right time and dominated a stacked field with a time of
1:53.31. He had a roughly 2 second margin of victory over Seth Ketler and holds
nearly a second advantage in seed time for this championships.
The wildcards will be our buddies from District One. The
states deepest district is sending 8 guys to states in this event, despite sub
optimal conditions at Coatesville this past weekend. Aidan Sauer was the
district champion last week and is all on in this event with no 4x8 qualified
while a tight knit group followed within a second or so of the Pennsbury
senior. Sauer’s brother ran 1:51.00 at this meet in 2015 to take silver behind
state meet record holder John Lewis.
The Prelims
I said this in the AA preview and I’ll repeat again here
– the 800 prelims at states are the hardest race to navigate in the state. The
odds say that at least one big name will be bounced as we are talking 16-17
guys per heat fighting for just 4 automatic qualifying spots in the finals (the
next 4 fastest times between the two heats will also advance, setting up a 12
person final). We’ve seen the #1 seed go out in the prelims more than once in
recent years so no one is safe.
Ultimately, here are my guess for who advances: Matt
Busche, Collin Ebling, Tyler Shue, Aidan Sauer, Jack Baker, Seth Ketler, Matt
Eissler, Collin Ochs, Hudson Delisle, Ethan Zeh, Mitchell Forgash, Jed
Scratchard.
This one was really hard for me to pick. The biggest name
I left out was Sam Morgan of Parkland who I easily could have swapped in for
one of the bubble picks. I like the advantage the District One guys will have
after already seeing a prelim-final set up at their district meet this weekend.
That could give them an edge.
Some other sleepers I left out include Seth Phillips of
Mifflin County (low 1:55 PR, does have 4x8 duties), Jonah Powell (another 1:55
guy on the double) and Jared Thompson from Williamsport (1:56 victory at
districts, but has the 400 on his schedule as well). I really like Matt Wehrle
of Punxsutawney’s upside as a finals sleeper and you can’t count out anybody
who wears the CR North jersey. Sam Earley has a history of showing up for the
big meets and he started things rolling that way with a clutch PR at districts.
I think Baker is going to get an auto Q for Cedar Cliff,
but he’s a little more vulnerable than others without some of the states
experience. Mitchell Forgash of District 2 seems like a bit of a boom-bust
pick, but he showed awesome potential at Shippensburg with his 1:56.10 best. I
think he drops that this weekend. Jed Scratchard is my real wild card. He
barely made it into this meet, needing a couple CB West scratches to qualify.
But I honestly feel like that stroke of good fortunate is going to lead to
something magical at states. He has a sub 1:55 PR and can handle this stage. If
he gets on the podium, I’ll coordinate a meeting between him and the CB West
guys to hug it out.
The Finals
I’m having a really difficult time calling this race. I
think it’s not unrealistic to have a long list of potential champions. Clearly,
I’ve been in Shue’s corner for much of the year, but the District One guys are
super dangerous. Sauer and Eissler both ran strong times in crappy 800
conditions this past weekend and they already know how to handle two races in a
weekend. Plus, both of these guys made the state finals last year (although
Sauer didn’t actually run it). It’s no secret that I think Eissler has the
talent to win the state title, but he’s got to get by guys with fresher legs.
Don’t count out a couple sleepers in Hudson Delisle and
Collin Ochs. Delisle ran 1:52 this year and has been gradually working back to
peak form this spring. He’s the top returner from last year’s meet and fits the
story of an upset champion. Delisle’s been working back, waiting to peak at the
right moment and, when it clicks, he’s the most talented for the field and
grabs gold. That may be asking too much of Hudson, but is something to keep in
the back of your mind. Ochs has really impressed me all season and I feel like
the kid is just a winner. I suspect he’ll stick his nose in the race and
contend on the last straightaway.
I don’t know what to make of Busche and Ebling honestly.
I think Ebling has a better chance of winning gold because I’ve been super
impressed by his 400-800 doubles and I like his raw speed. But Busche has been
in this final before and ran well. Maybe this past week was the perfect
breakthrough he needed to surprise at states. If he can cut three more seconds
off his seed time again, I guarantee he will win.
Alright, enough chat. Here’s the picks.
8. Jed Scratchard 1:54.43
7. Hudson Delisle 1:54.02
6. Collin Ochs 1:53.96
5. Matt Busche 1:53.46
4. Matt Eissler 1:53.32
3. Aidan Sauer 1:53.16
2. Collin Ebling 1:52.80
1. Tyler Shue 1:52.65
2018 State Previews: AAA 1600m
AAA 1600m
The Stage
A year ago the 1600 was one perhaps the wildest race of
the state championships with a slew of runners battling on the last lap.
Breaking through with a massive PR and an upset victory was Isaac Kole of
Carlisle, who won the race in 4:12. Trying hard to run him down in the final
meters was Owen J. Robert’s Liam Conway, who enters this year’s race as the top
returner and reigning indoor state champ (in the mile and the 800). Conway’s
personal best from last year’s state championships is 4:13.00, which makes him
the fastest guy in this field on paper. He’s also proven that his tactics are
sound and he can win a variety of races, including a kicker’s style format that
seems so common in championship settings.
Although Conway won a competitive district one final, he
does not enter as the #1 seed. Instead, that honor belongs to Evan Addison of
LaSalle. Addison has been strong in the mile to date, but Conway has had his
number in the big races to date. However, Addison has strong together some
consistent results including a new 3200 PR at Henderson (finishing ahead of
Conway) and now a 4:13.85 bomb at the District 12 championships (which he won
by 8 seconds over his two teammates). Suddenly the LaSalle senior looks like a
championship contender.
Two juniors won the other major districts, 3 and 7, as
Jack Wisner of Carlisle and Cameron Binda of Greensburg Salem enter as perhaps
unlikely #2 and #3 seeds. Neither of these guys has made a state championship
final, but both have killer momentum. Wisner looks to keep the title in house
for Carlisle while Binda is accompanied by two other promising teammates,
including his twin brother Dylan.
Lastly, you’ve got to mention the story of the year in
the 1600 – the District 2 boys. Tyler Wirth and Kyle Burke have been fantastic
this year and the pair dueled to a second straight memorable district
championship, with Burke outlasting Wirth. Tyler has the faster PR, running
4:14 in a match up with Burke earlier in the year (Kyle ran 4:16). These two
should both have state gold aspirations and, perhaps more importantly, will
have their own inter-district rivalry to help propel them around the track.
The Prelims
I’m sure you getting sick of me explaining this by now,
but I’ll say it again in case this is the first one of these you’ve read. To
get to the finals of the 1600, runners will need to survive the qualifying
heats. That means they need to be top 4 in their heat or among the next 4
fastest times from the two heats combined. In total, that’s 12 guys through to
the finals.
Here’s who I have slated to be those 12 guys: Evan
Addison, Kyle Burke, Tyler Wirth, Liam Conway, Jonah Hoey, Jack Wisner, Cameron
Binda, Dylan Binda, Connor Shields, Kyle Malmstrom, Jonah Powell, Nathan
Grucelski.
There were some tough omissions here. I think heat two
looks pretty darn formidable with four of the biggest names around all in that
heat so I wouldn’t want to have drawn that heat from an auto perspective, but
maybe someone is willing to take the pace and keep things quick enough that
they get extra time qualifiers. Meanwhile, in the other section, I think this
sets up nicely for Jack and Cameron, who can transition a bit onto the big
stage without having to battle all the biggest names. That being said, I really
like sleepers from this heat like Jonah Powell and Chayce Macknair (if he can
double back from the 4x8 well, he will be a finalist).
Dylan Binda’s run at the WPIALs was really impressive.
The kid has great 800 speed, but he didn’t have much 1600 experience. Smart
coaching from this squad to push Dylan up in distance and let him use that
speed to drop a fast PR at 4:21. And good for Dylan for not being afraid of the
longer event. He may just be starting to scratch the surface of his potential
(and he gets to race alongside his brother in the prelims).
I’m rooting for Matsumura of Southern Lehigh to have a
big race. He’s overcome injuries to run away with the district title and
qualify for a second straight state meet. He’s definitely a sleeper. Then
you’ve got some guys on the 4x8 double in Patrick Anderson and Aiden Tomov who
have proven they could be state medalists on the right day that I’ve also left
out of the finals. Super soph Anderson seems like a likely candidate to make me
look silly for leaving him out of the final. I’m still surprised he dropped the
race he did at districts.
The Finals
I think this is going to be a truly exciting race once
again. I’d say Conway is the favorite (and will probably be my pick to win at
the end of this paragraph), but I also suspect this race is going to have some
wild moments. People know about Conway’s kick, particularly Addison who has
seen it up close. Maybe he uses some of that 4:13 strength to make a mid-race
surge and throw a wrench in Conway’s race plan. How to Wirth and Burke figure
in? These guys both have big kicks and they’ve run some really quick 16s so
they won’t be afraid of a quick pace. It doesn’t feel like either of these guys
will be crowned the champion on Saturday, but did it really feel like Kole
would be this time last year? How about Matt Kravitz or Joe Espinal before him?
Ultimately, I think the state champ will end up being
whoever has the best day from those four. I’ve been riding hard for Cameron
Binda all spring, but I think the junior may be a year away from winning gold on
this stage. The same is true for Jack Wisner. He’s come on at the perfect time
(typical Carlisle), he’s got championship pedigree all around him and he’s got
a strong finishing kick. But again, I think he’s a year away.
I’d be stunned to see this guy win the title, but you
know who is really, really good? Jonah Powell of Grove City. He was able to
cruise a bit at districts, but the Grove City junior has run a 4:20 mile and a
1:55 800 this season. He was 3rd in the state in XC and has raced
some of the biggest names out west. Don’t sleep on him just because he didn’t
run fast at districts. We’ll see if the decision to double up between 16 and 8
spreads him thin at all.
Of course, we’ve got to mention the biggest name in the
room. Jonah Hoey, brother of state record holder Josh Hoey and 2015 1600 state
champ Jaxson Hoey, is entered in this event after taking 2nd at the
District One championships. He chose the 16 over the 800 which I found a
surprising choice (he’s run 1:53 this year), but that means that this sophomore
has confidence in his ability to close and go for the win in this race.
Like I said at the top, this one is tough to call. The
door seems open for an upset compared to indoors, but I see the crazy race this
year being the 800 (not that we can’t have two) so I think this one holds a bit
more true to form.
8. Jack Wisner, Carlisle 4:16.54
7. Jonah Hoey, Bishop Shanahan 4:16.30
6. Jonah Powell, Grove City 4:15.98
5. Cameron Binda, Greensburg Salem 4:15.13
4. Evan Addison, LaSalle 4:14.45
3. Kyle Burke, Abington Heights 4:14.01
2. Tyler Wirth, Wallenpaupack 4:13.23
1. Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts 4:12.75
2018 State Previews: AAA 4x800m
AAA 4x800m
The Stage
The defending champions from CB West will look to repeat
as gold medal winners in this event after claiming the District One title this
past weekend. Making things more interesting – West got that District victory
without the guy who anchored them to the 2017 championship, Jake Claricurzio,
as the senior was kept fresh for the open 800 according to the Penntrack
twitter feed. West won’t have that conflict of interest to worry about at
states as Claricurzio and Brian Baker both scratched from the open event to
focus on the relay(s).
If CB West wins the gold medals this spring, it will be
the first time we’ve seen back to back champions in this event since North Penn
did it in 2007-2008. Other squads have come close including, ironically, State
College who CB West narrowly edged out in last year’s final.
There are a long list of teams hoping to unseat West
including, oh man another ironic twist, a long list of teams from the West.
Five teams cracked 8 minutes at the WPIAL championships meaning the district is
responsible for five of the top 10 seeds. Seneca Valley, the indoor state
champions in the DMR over CB West, won the district title in the 7.
The Prelims
In case you skipped the AA posts, there will be two
preliminary heats on Friday from which 12 teams will be selected for Saturday’s
final. The qualifiers are selected as follows: top 4 places in each heat plus
the next four fastest times overall. As of the typing of this post, I have yet
to see Heat Sheets which, normally, isn’t a big deal as they typically just
snake the seeds. However, it looks like they let 6 automatics from District 3
in this year (listed online as 5) and I’m not sure if that’s intentional or not
so that could affect the seedings if they take somebody out.
Another interesting wrinkle with respect to the prelims
is the lack of a District One presence. The last four seasons there have been
6, 6, 7 and 7 District One teams in the state finals for the 4x8, accounting
for 23 of the 32 state medals handed out during that span. However, this year
we only saw 5 teams get through the slop at Coatesville which means there will
be some new blood in the state championship final. That’s good news for
qualifiers from small districts like Parkland (D11) and LaSalle (D12).
Despite that advantage, I think the West ends up picking
up the slack and sending through a crop of it’s own squads to the state final.
Here’s what I think the top 12 will be: Seneca Valley, Butler, Ephrata, CB
West, Pennridge, Mifflin County, Mount Lebanon, North Allegheny, CB East,
Boyertown, State College, Haverford.
Assuming I’m mapping out the heats correctly, the second
heat is going to be absolutely stacked. My top 12 has eight teams from that
heat and it doesn’t even count some of my D3 sleepers like Cumberland Valley
and Twin Valley. Meanwhile, in the other heat you have someone like Butler
among the top seeds, but it’s not necessarily guaranteed their best runner in
Noah Beveridge will be featured in the line-up as he has some serious
individual title aspirations in the 3200 the next morning.
LaSalle was left out of my top 12, but they would be a
very interesting team. We won’t see Addison or Twomey in the prelims (they’ve
got the 16), but if, hypothetically, this deep team can find a spot in the
finals and one of their individual pieces falters, they can make a swap and add
another lethal piece to the puzzle. They and Indiana are my two biggest sleepers
that I left out of the prelims. I’m also intrigued a lot by Parkland who has
two full blown stars in Morgan and Ringer.
The Finals
On paper, this race seems like CB West’s to lose. They
are the defending champions from last outdoors. They are the defending
champions from this past indoors. They’ve got three legs back from the squad
that ran 7:40 last year and a deep crop of guys to pick from to fill the
remaining slots. West is deep enough they can even rest one of their top guys
in the prelims to keep fresher for the finals. They are the only squad who has
three legs with the ability to go 1:54 or better and Claricurzio looks more and
more like his state champion form with every week. It’s definitely the safe
pick.
That being said I’ve taken a good hard look at three
other competitors. First is Seneca Valley. The WPIAL champs ran 7:46 last year
and return all four legs from that squad. Since that race, Seth Ketler has
taken massive strides forward and developed into an individual qualifier at 800
as well as a top 10 guy during XC. They seem to be a bit more distance based
than the CB West boys who have monster raw speed, but this team is
ultra-talented. That indoor DMR win said a lot about what this team was ready
for this spring and, because they have barely contested the 4x8, I think we
haven’t come close to seeing their potential. Expect them to contend for gold.
I’ve made no secret about the fact that I expect
Pennridge to compete for gold. After the Rams topped CB West at their home
invite, I thought Pennridge was ready to claim the throne. However, since that
time West has gotten them back at both leagues and districts. Still, I think
Pennridge is going to rock the state championships. If they can keep Matt
Eissler close for the finish, he’s got a great chance to match any of the other
anchors in this field. Anderson Dimon, the 48 second 400 star, could be an
x-factor if featured, but they will need Luke Eissler and Brashear to give them
1:56ish legs or better to make sure West doesn’t pull ahead. I feel like the
Rams tend to peak almost perfectly for states and that 7:40 from a few years
back is still ringing around in my head. If they are healthy and all-in on this
relay, I still believe they can win it.
Then there’s Ephrata. While I’ve been focusing on the D1
and D7 depth, Ephrata has been quietly dominating the competition in the middle
of those two districts. They absolutely rolled through the D3 championships,
were the top 4x8 at Penn Relays and, oh by the way, they have the fastest individual
leg of the bunch. Tyler Shue, who split a 1:52 lead off at Penn Relays, may be
just a soph, but he’s an absolute beast in the 800. The kid honestly reminds me
of Tom Mallon which (for those of you who are old like me) is high praise.
Mallon won 3 straight titles in the 800 from 2008 to 2010. It looks like
they’ve transitioned Shue from lead to anchor as well, which is another
interesting variable.
But the key to an Ephrata victory won’t be Shue. The more
interesting guys to me are Morales and particularly Andrew Foster. Morales has
been excelling in the open 8 (clocked a 1:56 at districts) and Foster has been
a force in the longer stuff (he won the District title in the 3200). He gave up
a realistic medal chance in the open 32 so that he could ride with his relay
compatriots and they will without a doubt need a fast split from him if they
are going compete for gold.
Those are the big four in my eyes. I’d be surprised about
anyone outside that core four leaving with the state gold. I like what I’ve
seen from Butler, but there’s too much up in the air with Beveridge and the
32-4x8 double. They could steal grab some medals, but I don’t see them mixing
it up with these low 7:40 type squads. I like CB East’s upside. I’m intrigued
to see how they handle the moment. David Endres is their best leg, but guys
like Motter and Bardwell will likely dictate the team’s success. The District 6
teams have a legacy of big performances, particularly State College. Mifflin
County has been the better team to date and they have two bigger stars (Seth
Phillips and Chase Macknair), but SC may be a bit more balanced. We will see if
that State College magic is still floating around on the Shippensburg track.
My #1 sleeper pick, though, is Mount Lebanon.
Brandenstein and Everhart are both 1:56 guys in the open and then they have
another two sub 2 guys along side them. Patrick Anderson has been racing like a
man possessed lately as he crushed the 1600 at WPIALs. They may be the best
shot at matching the depth of CB West through 4 legs, but they will need to
prove they have the firepower to stick around on the anchor. We were robbed of
seeing this fall’s Lebo squad at states. Now that we’ve got their spring
distance relay here, let’s see what they can do with this opportunity.
When the dust settles, here’s what I think the results
will show:
8. North Allegheny 7:51.85
7. CB East 7:50.56
6. Mifflin County 7:49.75
5. Mount Lebanon 7:46.04
4. Ephrata 7:45.49
3. Seneca Valley 7:43.22
2. CB West 7:41.98
1. Pennridge 7:41.15
2018 State Previews: AA 800m
AA 800m
The Stage
A year ago, Kamil Jihad of Neumann Goretti and Tyler
Leeser came battling down the final straightaway in the quest for gold in the
open 800, only to have Rob Reichenbaugh of Freeport turn the tables on everyone
with an upset victory. The homestretch probably left a bitter taste in both
juniors mouths and now they will each have their chance for vengeance as Jihad
and Leeser enter as co-favorites in this event.
This match-up is three years in the making as, in the
blazing fast 2016 edition of this race, Jihad and Leeser both medaled in the
race with then bests of 1:52 and 1:55. Last year, neither could top that seed
as Jihad was forced into more of a front runner role while Leeser was doubling
off the 1600. Now both will be fresh (or at least fresher as Leeser may be
featured in the 4x8 finals) and will hold nothing back in their last chance at
a first state gold.
The Prelims
The 800 prelims are perhaps the most lethal heats in the
state meet. In order to qualify for Saturday’s final, runners must survive the
preliminary round by placing top 4 in one of the two qualifying heats. If they
don’t get one of these automatic spots, they must have one of the fastest four
times of the remaining runners.
With 14 guys packed together, sprinting for position,
things can get crowded. Experience and poise are always important at states,
but their value is almost double in an 800 prelim. I’ve got to give priority in
my projected qualifiers to the guys who I’ve seen deliver before in this same
spot. Ultimately, here’s the dozen advancers as I see them: Tyler Leeser, Tyler
Bailey, Griffin Sites, Kamil Jihad, Zach Tingley, Christian Tanner, Jake
Schneider, Liam Aro, Ben Reisenweaver, Sam Cunkelman, Sebastian Brudnicki and
Josh Yourish.
I really had a hard time piecing together this field.
There is a long list of guys with 4x8 duties to pair with their 800 prelims.
While I think that double is easier than the 4x8-16, it’s still not a walk in
the park against state caliber guys. You’ve also got guys with 16-8 doubles
factoring in, another tricky scheduling move.
Ultimately, I sided often with experience and picked some
guys from programs that have a strong recent history of showing up for this
meet (like Seneca and Boiling Springs) and then just jumped on the D2 bandwagon
as I learned a year ago not to underrate these guys.
The Finals
With all due respect to Tyler Bailey (who has had a
monstrous season to date), I think this race will be between Jihad and Leeser
for the title. Both guys have to really be locked in after last season and,
unlike Bailey, this race will be the #1 goal. In recent results, Leeser has
been the better of the two. He beat Jihad last year in this event (on the
double) and comes in with the best seed time, almost 4 second ahead of Jihad’s.
However, I’m not sure those seeds are comparable as Kamil didn’t run in a
district meet with the standards of D4. If Kamil has his best day, he’s going
to be hard to stop and his PR (1:52 low) is out of this world.
I suspect these two will battle early and things may end
up being close all the way to the line (especially if Leeser helps on the pace
early and Jihad can relax a bit more), but it feels like it’s going to be
Leeser’s year for the gold to me.
I’m very excited to see Bailey mix it up with these two.
I’m not sure how much he will have left after the 4x8, but sometimes guys get
an extra spring if they have a big carry early in the day to give them
confidence. Of course, you also see guys who already have golds not be able to
find that extra gear as the fire is a little bit diminished. The knife can cut
both ways. To me, Bailey has been good enough that he deserves consideration
for a top 3 spot and is worth mentioning as an outside contender for the win,
but he will have a very tough time getting by his district rival in Leeser who
has been a step ahead thus far in 2018.
I really like the season Griffin Sites has had this year.
He’s a pretty fearless guy with excellent top end speed. He dropped a nice PR
at districts and has good state experience (he excelled here a year ago and
enters as one of the top returners). I don’t want to put too much stock in the
District 4 times (they were lightyears ahead of the other districts because of
competition/weather/etc.), but you have to note the guys who are running fast
when it counts and will have the experience running fast times to be mentally
prepared for this sort of challenge.
Christian Tanner is my wild card. Seeing him race at the
District 9 championship was impressive and he flashed a lot more raw speed than
I thought he would have. This is a junior with XC hardware already in his
trophy case. It’s not unreasonable to guess he will add some track bling
sometime soon.
All that said, here’s who I’m giving my medal-winning
spots to:
8. Liam Aro 1:56.92
7. Josh Yourish 1:56.58
6. Christian Tanner 1:56.17
5. Zac Tingley 1:55.95
4. Tyler Bailey 1:55.50
3. Griffin Sites 1:55.14
2. Kamil Jihad 1:54.09
1. Tyler Leeser 1:53.16
2018 State Previews: AA 1600m
AA 1600m
The Stage
A year ago Winchester Thurston junior Tristan Forsythe
took control of this race early and never looked back as he clocked a personal
best 4:12 en route to his first individual state gold. Since then, Forsythe has
added a gold medal in cross country, a new PR in the 3200 and a trophy room
full of WPIAL related hardware. The senior seems confident, healthy (a key for
him) and poised for a second straight victory. It’s worth noting that the last
two juniors to win the AA title in this event were Domenic Perretta and Ryan
Smathers, both of whom retained their golds a year later (in slower times).
While Smathers (after the Jewett DQ) and Perretta entered
the state final as big favorites, there will definitely be some upset buzz
around Forsythe. For starters, Joe Cullen of Wyomissing is back in this race
again, after finishing second in this race last spring. He ran his personal
best of 4:13 last year with a massive last lap kick. If he can keep the gap a
bit tighter to Forsythe this season, he could surprise in the final meets.
There will also be plenty of buzz around Juniata super soph Garrett Baublitz.
As a freshman, Garrett made the state finals and ran under 4:20. This year, he
enters with a much better pre-states PR, a state medal from XC and plenty more
experience and confidence. Is the sophomore ready to make the leap to state
champion?
The Prelims
In case you missed it in the other posts, State
Championship Friday will feature the qualifying round for the sprint and (most)
distance finals. In the 1600, there will two heats with the top 4 in each heat
advancing automatically to Saturday’s final. After those 8 spots are claimed,
the next four fastest times are also pushed through, making for a 12 person
final.
So here’s my 12 picks for the final: Tristan Forsythe,
Garrett Baublitz, Joe Cullen, Ethan Knoebel, Andrew Stanley, Brandon Curely,
Gordon Pollock, Will Bucher, Jacob Martinez, Alex Patton, Dan Bici and Jonathan
Asay. I’m assuming, in this case, that we don’t see Forsythe or Pollock on
their 4x8, nor do we see Bici for Masterman or Stanley for Southern Huntingdon.
This field is pretty interesting to me. There’s some big
firepower out front, but the fight to make the finals (and chase a medal)
appears pretty wide open. There are only 25 entries with just 9 guys breaking
the SQS in qualifying. Typically, it will take mid to low 4:20s to get a state
medal so guys will either need to shed some time or we will see a slower than
average result. My guess is we see some PRs.
I gave some serious thought to the freshman in this field
– Colton Sands of Penns Valley and Ian Zimmerman of Northern Bedford, but
ultimately left both guys out of my projected final. Sands has a really fast
seed (4:28) and awesome distance strength. Plus, this kid has proven he doesn’t
run like a freshman in the big meets. This past fall he was the #1 guy for the
state champions in A. But I ultimately got scared off by the fact that he might
have a 4x8 to navigate. You’ll notice that’s a theme for me. I’m naturally
afraid of guys who attempt the 4x8-16 double. It’s really tight and, although
guys do it successfully every year (see Cullen or Owen Wing last year), it
doesn’t make it any less difficult (there’s plenty of non-success stories as
well).
The Finals
I’m interested to see what type of race Forsythe tries to
run. A year ago, he took the reigns early and never looked back. He blitzed a
4:12 that nobody else in the race could handle. That threw off my predictions
as I thought it would be more of a kicker’s race (I had Tyler Leeser winning
this race last year for the record). Will Tristan try the same strategy this
year? He’s clearly the strongest in the field based on XC and the 3200 and,
although he has capable 800 meter speed, his own teammate Gordon Pollock has
the fastest invite time of the Winchester Thurston boys. So I’m expecting
Forsythe to make a well timed surge and not leave this thing to chance in a
kick.
If anyone is going to beat Forsythe, I think it has to be
Cullen. There’s a small part of me that thinks he may get a shot at this race
fresh (Wyomissing may be deep enough to medal in the 4x8 without him). That
would make this race very interesting. However, if the 4x8 is a tooth and nail
fight to the finish between three teams (spoiler alert: that’s what I predicted
it would be), then that could leave Joe more tired than he was this time last
year. If Cullen wins, it will remind me a lot of the Alex Milligan victory from
a few years back and may take a similarly large PR (Milligan went from 4:16 to
4:10 after running a 1:52 anchor leg on the gold medal 4x8 to defeat all-timers
Josh Hoey and Mike Kolor).
Baublitz is awesome and really wow-ed me with his
performance last state meet as a freshman, but I don’t quite think he’s ready
to beat someone who is as experienced and accomplished as Forsythe. That being
said, Baublitz can hang on when the inevitable surge comes and respond when the
kicking happens, he’s got a real chance. Keep in mind, Garrett dropped a big 32
best this year (low 9:30s) and was a monster during XC. He’s got that extra
strength as a sophomore.
Gordon Pollock has a chance to really surprise in this
race. I’ve been super impressed with his results to date. I originally thought
that he should go for the 800 instead of the 16 considering how much success
he’s had in that event this year, but after reviewing the two fields, this was
a smart choice. He can run low 4:20s on the right day and has some of the best
sprint speed in the group. There is a world where Winchester Thurston goes 1-2
in this event and it wouldn’t be a surprise if we are living in the world come
Saturday afternoon.
Personally, I think Jacob Martinez of Palmerton has had a
monster season. He and Dan Bici are guys that you didn’t see their full 1600
potential at districts because they didn’t need to use it all in order to
advance. My guess is they cut a good amount of time off their seeds and mix it
up for the medals.
The big sleeper for a top 3 finish is Ethan Knoebel. This
junior has had a monster season and has sneaky good 800 wheels to pair with his
awesome 1600 ability. He’s picked up a lot of experience racing the loaded
District 4 and should be confident in his ability to advance through the
prelims to the finals (seeing as he did it last year). This year, I think he
takes the next step to the podium.
With all that in mind, here’s what I’ll give you for
predictions:
8. Martinez 4:26.94
7. Bucher 4:26.11
6. Curley 4:24.84
5. Knoebel 4:22.37
4. Pollock 4:21.95
3. Baublitz 4:17.03
2. Cullen 4:16.80
1. Forsythe 4:14.65
2018 State Previews: AA 4x800m
AA 4x800m
The Stage
After two years of state championships for District 10’s
Seneca, the AA division will see a new champion in the state’s longest relay.
The 2018 season has seen a few teams already dip under the 8 minute mark (a
barrier only Seneca descended at last year’s meet) including the top two
qualifiers from District 3 – Wyomissing and Schuylkill Valley. Wyomissing, this
past fall’s XC state champs, have been runner-up in this event each of the past
two years and project to be in contention for at least this silver this time
around. However, Wyomissing has individual qualifiers in the 3200 and 1600 and
a deep rotation of relay pieces to pull from which complicates the picture.
They will need to be on top of their game as Schuylkill Valley has already
defeated them head to head this year for the state’s fastest time.
Although District 3 has two of the fastest teams,
District 4 proved to be the deepest this past week. On Thursday night a
whopping 8 relays cracked the SQS and punched their ticket for states. Fastest
on that night was Mifflinburg, a team that been dominant in 2018. They ran 7:58
at districts and enter with the top seed as a result. It looks as though they
return their entire core from last year’s medal winning relay. Behind
Mifflinburg, District 4 holds the next 4 best seed times and 8 of the top 11
overall. Despite this, it seems unlikely that the district will qualify 8 teams
for the state finals (it’s pretty unprecedented) so all of these schools will
need to bring that same intensity to Shippensburg.
The Prelims
In the distance races, the top 12 marks will advance to
the finals. Out of two prelims, that equates to the fastest 4 in each heat
(regardless of time) and then the next best four times. As of the writing of
this post, I haven’t seen the heat sheets yet, but they typically just snake
the entries so I can guess what they will look like (in theory).
My picks for the final would be Mifflinburg, Danville, Mt
Carmel, Warrior Run, Wyomissing, Schuylkill Valley, Riverside, Elk County
Catholic, Holy Redeemer, Reynolds, Purchase Line, and Notre Dame GP. Notre Dame
and Purchase Line are my two biggest bubble teams as they will need to crank it
up from their seed times, but I like Purchase Line’s recent state experience
and am a loyal supporter of Notre Dame, who I think can get some revenge on
Tamaqua this weekend.
The toughest omissions from the final include the
aforementioned Tamaqua (two guys with sub 2 potential, D11 champs), Central
Columbia (monster race at District 4, excellent 400 speed on this roster),
Milton (Tyler Leeser and Guinn-Bailey are a combined 6 seconds under 2 on the
right day, but will they have the depth?) and Smethport (Christian Tanner is
quietly emerging as a star in the middle distances). I also feel odd about
having just one WPIAL squad in my finals so we will see if someone like Deer
Lakes can have a big day and sneak into the top 12.
The Finals
From these 12 finalists, only 8 will make it to the medal
stand and only one set of four will get to wear gold. In my opinion, this is a
three horse race between Mifflinburg, Wyomissing and Schuylkill Valley. SV has
the fastest time coming in and has a pretty balanced attack with good quarter
speed. They have experience matching up with Wyomissing and the confidence to
push them to the line. Ben Reisenweaver is their likely anchor (individual 800
state qualifier) and will have the pressure to bring home the race against two
potentially game changing anchors. Tyler Bailey and Joe Cullen have both run
1:54 already this spring. If either gets it within striking distance of the
leader, they can hawk down the gold.
That’s why I think this race is ultimately going to come
down to these two teams. If the talent is comparable, I naturally drift to
which anchor I think is most likely to bring it home. Looking back on his
career, Cullen would be the logical pick to come out on top. He’s anchor a pair
of silver medal squads and, as a freshman, was a part of a gold medal winning
team. That being said, I’m going to play an instinct and pick Mifflinburg for
the victory.
Although I don’t have any other squads quite on this
team’s level, I do think there are a lot of high upside squads in this field.
Elk County Catholic has the chance to do real damage. They are sub 8:10 team
with room for more. The problem is Ben Hoffman is slated to run the 3200 final
prior to the 4x8. That double is brutal and could cost them a few seconds. Holy
Redeemer is another team that catches my eye. They had a fantastic series of
runs in Shippensburg last year and come out of the often underrated District 2.
By weekend’s end, I think they could be knocking on the door of sub 8. I’m also
keeping an eye out for a bounce back race from Warrior Run. On the right day,
they can be the second best team in the District (which, based on seed times,
would make them #2 in the state as well) and a quick scan of the performance
list makes it look like these guys will be fresher than many of their
opponents.
The real wildcard to me is Riverside out of District 7.
They absolutely dominated that meet and have been the clear #1 out West all
year. What happens when they finally get the competition that fits with their
talents? 8:05 seems almost like a conservative estimate given their excellence
to date, but I also can’t tell you much about any of the guys who make up the
relay (I think they have a very quick 400 guy moving up). The District 4 teams
will be legit. Danville and Mount Carmel are two powers who showed up under the
bright lights at districts. Both have experience on this stage and Mount Carmel
is coming off a monster XC season. The thing to watch with them will be how
Krystof Lapotsky figures into their finals relay (he’s slated for the 3200
prior to gun time in the 4x8).
Ultimately, here’s my final picks:
8. Mount Caramel 8:05.81
7. Riverside 8:04.33
6. Warrior Run 8:02.79
5. Holy Redeemer 8:01.20
4. Danville 8:00.96
3. Schuylkill Valley 7:56.25
2. Wyomissing 7:55.89
1. Mifflinburg 7:55.02
2018 District Picks - Projecting My Last State Meet
In XC the past few years, I’ve provided a full breakdown of
every district with my picks for who is going to qualify for states. During the
indoor season, I keep a running list of the top times in the state with a
tracker of how the cutoffs are projecting. So I think it only makes sense that
this year I try and break down every single district for track and field with
some state qualifying picks and previews (for the distance events only, sorry
to my non-distance fans). Because of my plan, I won’t be explicitly recapping all
the league meet action, but those results will be rolled into some of the preview
content. Feel free to play along at home with your own picks!
This section will
provide links to all the posts as they become available:
District 11 (AA & AAA) 5/15 & 5/16
District 4 (AA & AAA)
District 7 (AA & AAA)
District 5 AA
District 3 (AA & AAA)
District 1 (AA & AAA)
District 4 (AA & AAA)
District 7 (AA & AAA)
District 5 AA
District 3 (AA & AAA)
District 1 (AA & AAA)
State Qualifying Info (auto-bids + qual times)
AA
|
AAA
|
|
D1
|
1
|
5
|
D2
|
1
|
1
|
D3
|
2
|
5
|
D4
|
2
|
1
|
D5
|
1
|
0
|
D6
|
3
|
1
|
D7
|
5
|
4
|
D8
|
0
|
1
|
D9
|
2
|
1
|
D10
|
2
|
1
|
D11
|
2
|
2
|
D12
|
3
|
2
|
3200m
|
9:48.01'
|
9:31.71'
|
4x800m
|
8:15.55'
|
8:02.04'
|
1600m
|
4:31.13'
|
4:24.22'
|
800m
|
1:59.70'
|
1:57.32'
|
District 1 Championship Preview
District 1 AAA
District One is always tricky because a) they allow
scratches so team’s enter basically everyone who has qualified and b) there are
trails and finals to be concerned with. So these predictions will likely be
terrible, but hey I’ll give it my best shot anyway. I’m a professional, dang
it.
With the exception of the 3200 (which has no trials),
I’ll give you my pick for which teams/individuals will qualify for the finals
and then I’ll narrow it down to a top 8. I’m assuming that D1 will send 8 per
event because that’s how they typically operate, but that could end up being
optimistic (especially in the 32).
3200m
Rusty Kujdych is the defending champion in this race and
will enter as a heavy favorite. He’s clocked the best time in the district so
far and is the reigning and XC and indoor state champion. Rusty also scratched
out of the 1600 so you can bet all his focus will be on his marquee event. I
would say this is a race for second, but last year we saw Will Griffen step up
and nearly take an upset victory. Anything can happen when you are talking
about the best guys in the state.
One of those best guys in the state is Henderson’s
Spencer Smucker. He’s been mainly a miler in recent years but, after a 9:18
3200 at his home invite, it seems like Spencer is ready to try the longer
event. He will bring a good combination of speed and strength to the event (has
4 XC state medals) and appears to be a safe bet for a state qualifying spot.
He’s also entered in the 16 (which he might double up with), but I don’t think
the trials in that race will take much sting out of his legs.
With Liam Conway expected to be a scratch, Tyler Rollins
of DT West is the next highest seed. Rollins has past state qualifying
experience, finished third at the indoor state meet for 3,000 meters and seems
poised to deliver a big time at Coatesville. I think he rounds out a clear cut
top 3.
Outside of that trio, it’s hard to pin down the state
qualifying field. There are 16 guys between 9:34 and 9:42 (which is outside the
SQS). Some of them are not a lock for this event (Brendan O’Toole, for example,
is qualified in all 3 distance events) either. On paper, this doesn’t seem like
a stacked group, but I felt like year’s past (particularly 2015) were similarly
seeded and then those guys went out and blazed around the track for eight laps
anyway. A few guys are going to have breakout races and my hope is that 8 guys
go through to states out of this district.
So who is it going to be? Well, I’m crossing out Lewin
and Forney (I think they go 16) and I tentatively am crossing out McKenna (I
think he ends up pulling 4x8 duties, but I feel less strongly about this one).
That makes my job a lot easier, but I still have to pick five guys.
No clue what O’Toole’s plan is as his range is crazy (has
a great shot at advancing in the 32 or the 8). If he’s all in on this race, I
like his chances of producing a big result. I’ll go with my gut and say he tries
this event and gets one of the qualifying spots. I like Payton Sewall’s chances
from DT West. I think he’s going to stick close enough to Rollins to get onto
the podium. I’m also going to ride with Ryan Campbell. He’s making big progress
with every race back and the kid has massive talent, but it’s never easy to
qualify on a short window like this.
Rounding it out I’ll throw in Ben Bunch from CB West and
Cole Walker from Unionville to finish the top 8. Walker did enough at this meet
last year to make me buy in to his potential. Bunch could probably deliver a
strong 4x8 leg if needed, but I see him delivering a strong PR performance in
the longer event.
Watch for Ethan Koza as a big sleeper. Linus Blatz will
be one of the most interesting wildcards of the weekend between this event and
the 16 (and Owen J Roberts in general will be interesting to watch).
My picks (all advancing to states on time):
Kujdych, Rollins, Smucker, O’Toole, Campbell, Sewall,
Walker, Bunch
4x800m
So I’m going to push through a few major names right off
the bat to finals – CB West, Pennridge, CB East. I’ll talk more about them
later. I would normally push Pennsbury straight through as well, but I do find
it a little odd that Javier Linares is not listed on their 4x8 entries. I’m not
sure if this means they will scratch the 4x8 the way they did indoors (when
they didn’t have Scratchard) or I’m just reading way too much into this and
they will be title contenders. I’ll slot them into the finals on pure upside,
but it will be interesting to see how they shake out.
Pennsbury is the leader in the clubhouse of the “if they
go for it, they’ll be a finalist” category which also includes Spring Ford
(popped a very quick 7:56 and has a strong recent history of showing up in the
clutch), Boyertown (their 7:57 was a long time coming and may just be the tip
of the iceberg for this squad) and Owen J. Roberts (if you have Conway and
Malmstrom on the squad, you don’t need much else to break 8 minutes). My gut
says Spring Ford and Boyertown push their chips in for the 4x8 while Owen J
holds out their two stars.
We also have some interesting teams from further down the
performance list. Radnor at #19 and Penn Wood at #18 both have high upside. It
seems like Penn Wood is an annual “breaks out at districts” type squad. Radnor
may have individual goals that trump the relay.
CR South was awesome during the indoor season, but enters
this meet with just an 8:05 seed. Which CR South will we get on race day? They
have a game changer in Collin Ochs, but he may be better off focusing on the
individual event (where he is quickly gaining steam). DT West has a team line
up and even without some of their flashy names, has the pieces to put together
a time under the SQS. I’m a huge fan of Haverford’s squad. If they load up the
relay, they seem like a really dangerous sleeper squad.
One more interesting (but probably unlikely wrinkle) – is
there any way that Rusty hops on the 4x8 alongside sub 2 man Matt Taylor and
tries to drag his relay to the final? It seems unlikely, but was fun to
mention.
In the end, here are my projected 12 finalists: CB West,
Pennridge, CB East, Pennsbury, CR South, Spring Ford, Boyertown, Bensalem,
Haverford, DT West, Penn Wood, Radnor
Once we get to the finals, I think this ends up a two
horse race for the championship. As mentioned, I’m nervous about Pennsbury
loading up the relay, but I’m confident we get to see a CB West vs. Pennridge
show down. In recent weeks, CB West has emerged as the deeper team. They get a
big boost from Jake Claricurzio starting to hit some elite level stuff and they
have three guys who can give you a 1:55 or better depending on the day. My
guess is they win the district title this weekend, but I haven’t decided about
states just yet.
Pennridge is loaded on paper and if they throw out the
Dimon-Brashear-Eissler-Eissler line-up, I think they can be close to their
school record by season’s end. I’m not sure we see that line up during district
week (Dimon has some other things that I think may keep him off this relay),
but I still see this squad as a clear top 3 team in the district and
potentially a gold medalist this weekend.
I like CB East’s team a lot. Their readjusted order for
the conference championships really worked well. I think they are on to
something and expect them to advance. I’ve bought in on the clutch factor for
Spring Ford. The only potentially complicating factor is McKenna in the 3200
beforehand. I’m buying Haverford stock and think Boyertown is getting the job
done as well. Bensalem has a ton of speed on that roster and I like their
history excelling in this relay (plus they have one of the fastest seeds).
If Pennsbury wants it, they’ve got that last spot (and
are a top 3 squad). We will see if they load up. If not, watch for Penn Wood to
do their thing and sneak into the state championships.
My picks (all the top 8 advance to Shippensburg on time):
CB West, Pennridge, Pennsbury, Haverford, CB East, Spring
Ford, Boyertown, Bensalem
1600m
Again, we’ve got a tricky group of entries to skim
through. Now look, there’s not a ton of downside here for guys to enter this
event if their focus is the 3200. The heats aren’t usually super taxing
(depending on scratches and doublers) and, if you make to the finals, you
double your opportunities for a state qualifier. That being said, if your focus
is the 800, I think it’s safe to bet you are scratching. So that should throw
out at least Jonah Hoey, Matt Eissler, Jed Scratchard and Ethan Zeh. Plus, some
guys will either load up on the 4x8 or use the opportunity to get an extra
little bit of rest relative to the competition in the 32.
In addition, the 4x8-16 double is no walk in the park.
The top guys can usually handle it (especially if the 4x8s can coast a bit),
but every once in a while there’s a few guys who have a hard time and blow up.
OK, with all that in mind, here are my picks for the 12
guys to advance to the finals (this was not easy): Liam Conway, Evan Kaiser,
Josh Lewin, Kyle Malmstrom, Zack Forney, Avery Ledererer, Spencer Smucker,
Jacob McKenna, Linus Blatz, Zach Smith, Aiden Tomov, Frank Brown
The back half of the finals is going to be pretty wild.
It’s really hard for me to speculate about how good guys will feel coming off
that 4x8 (and which goes will double up 16-32).
In the finals, I think it would be a shocker to see
anyone but Liam Conway holding the gold. He’s the indoor state champ and has
the best seed time by far (especially if Jonah Hoey scratches for the 800 like
I think he will). He’s tactically sound and seems like a safe bet to get the
job done. That being said, he’s no lock (I believe Scarpill pulled the upset
last year) and in a kicker’s race anything can happen.
Outside Conway, I think it could end up a struggle to get
8 guys under that SQS. I think a lot of guys will be tired from one race or
another. This might be the event where we don’t have 8 guys advance to states.
Now that I say that, we will probably have 12 guys under 4:24, but you see my
point.
My guess for the autos is:
Conway, Lewin, Malmstrom, Forney, Kaiser
Then it’s tricky. I’m surprised I’m doing this, but I’ll
say only those 5 advance to states. The wildcard may end up being Lederer or
maybe Blatz (if he doesn’t run the 32). Brown, Tomov, Smith, McKenna or Smucker
would all be easy picks if I thought they’d be fresh as well, but realistically
I think only maybe Brown can’t be expected to be on their second race by this
stage.
800m
It took me a while, but I think we’ve found the most
stacked event in the district. We have 15 guys under 1:57 and it’s not crazy to
imagine all 15 of them lining up for this race. Maybe the CB West guys don’t go
for it if they are feeling invested in the 4x8-4x4 (last year they all scratched)
and perhaps the OJR pair of Conway and Malmstrom prefer to focus exclusively on
the 16 (Conway was a surprise scratch in the 800 last year, but this year I
think he tries the double).
And that doesn’t even count the guys over 1:57 that I
think have a great shot at advancing. I’m high on Sam Early from CR North, I
wouldn’t sleep on Abington’s Josh Coleman and this kid Connor Hurst from Upper
Moreland has been heating up too. Best of luck to everyone competing in this
event and hopefully they keep the prelims small enough that everyone can stay
on their feet.
This is going to be wild trying to sort out the finalists
but here are my projections:
Jonah Hoey, Aidan Sauer, Matt Eissler, Collin Ochs, Liam
Conway, Hudson Delisle, Ethan Zeh, David Endres, Jarnail Dhillon, Sam Earley,
Jed Scratchard, Michael Clark
Geez, that was tough to type. I’m banking on the CB West
guys not competing in this event, but if they do that’s bumping out some really
talented names.
OK, now I need to bring this 12 down to 8?
Well, thus far this spring, Jonah Hoey has been the
story. It wasn’t that long ago that his brother entered the district meet as a
sophomore in the 1600 and left victorious. Now Jonah will enter this race as
the favorite to keep things in the family. The only guy I can see giving him a
challenge is Pennridge’s Matt Eissler, who is likely going to be on the double
from a big carry in the 4x8. I’m a big Eissler fan and think he could pull this
out, but I also have a habit of going with the fresh legs. I’ll take Hoey by a
nose in what would be a huge victory for the sophomore. It sets up an outdoor
states race where the two favorites for gold would both be sophomores (Hoey and
Tyler Shue) which seems absurd to have event typed out.
My picks for the top 8:
Hoey, Eissler, Sauer, Ochs, Conway, Delisle, Clark,
Earley
District 1 AA
3200m
Jack Miller and Josh Jackson will start their first of
what could be three individual races with the 3200 meters. The pair of
Jenkintown runners will be heavy favorites as they are the only two guys under
10:30 (and they are sub 10). Both have also already pocketed XC state medals
during this year. The tricky thing is that only one of these two guys is
guaranteed a spot in the state meet, the other has to hit the time. So will
they time trial together to both advance to Shippensburg or trade off events (they
are also the two top seeds in the 1600). My money is on Miller to advance here
(and I think he could make serious noise at states in the 3200) and I don’t
think these guys will tire themselves out in this event – in fact Jackson may
not even run it.
4x800m
Dock Mennonite has historically been the power of this
event in recent seasons. They have the best 4x4 and 4x8 by seed and, with
Jenkintown’s top two guys off the relay, it seems like Dock should roll to the
victory in this four team field.
1600m
As alluded to previously, the Jenkintown boys will enter
as heavy favorites in the 1600 just like the 32. Again, only one of them is
guaranteed a spot at states. In this event, Jackson is only seeded at 4:39, a
good ways away from the 4:31 time he would need to qualify for states if he
were to finish 2nd in this race. On paper, Miler has been the better
miler this year, but who knows if this pair has a plan for getting both to
states. I say Jack wins, but we may see Josh toe the line in a week out west.
800m
Miller and Jackson will contest their third race of the
day, but this time they won’t be the favorites. Both Jenkintown guys are seeded
at 2:03, but Ian Anderson of Dock and Michah Shaw of Phil-mont have clocked
2:02 this season and are the top two seeds. Shaw is the top returner from last
year, having finished in 3rd that spring. Anderson has a faster
season best at 2:02 and has 50.99 400 speed, but he’s going to double up with
the 4 and the 8 this weekend. That could lead to an upset by Shaw. For the official
prediction, I’ll pick Anderson, but I gave Shaw some serious thought.
If Miller or Jackson can pull out the win, it could be
the end of an epic triple. There is a short list of all timers who have swept
the distance events at a district championship.
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