District Week Previews: District One

by Jarrett Felix

Click here for the full break down on all things District One

And click here to listen to me and ForrestCRN talk about all things District One

And hey! Click here on race day to follow along with live results for the District One Championship meet courtesy of runccrs!

District 1 Championships 10/28

A (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

The boys from Jenkintown looked very strong at their League Championships, holding their own against one of the top AA schools in Holy Ghost Prep. Sophomore Jack Miller has had a terrific season out front. He was second at leagues and was top 10 at the Foundation Invitational. They displayed a nice pack with few weak links for other teams to attack making them an interesting squad in the A team battle.

Individually, Jenkintown could win the title as well. As mentioned, Jack Miller has looked terrific this year, but so too has Tim Kennel of Dock Mennonite. The two finished right next to each other at leagues and Foundation so I’m excited for a rematch where the two should basically be racing one on one. Besides the Jenkintown army, keep an eye on Mekael Kassu of Church Farm and Charlie Shaefer of Delco County Christian to work their way up into the state qualifying conversation.

AA (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

The AA landscape got a big shake up this year as Pottsgrove and Bishop Shanahan, who have combined for all the district championships since 2012, both moved up to AAA. That left the door open for Holy Ghost Prep to punch their first ticket to states. Prep has looked very strong this year behind returning district champ Callahan Lennon. This team placed in the top 5 at the Foundation Invitational and look like intriguing dark horse contenders for a top 3 spot at states, perhaps similar to Bishop Shanahan a year ago. I’ll be watching the pack to see who steps up alongside Lennon as a contender. I’m also interested to see how strong their #5 runner looks as that seems to be one of the few weaknesses that can be attacked with some of the top teams.

As mentioned, Lennon likely will reclaim his title, but the battle for second could be wide open. New Hope moves up from A to AA to test the waters and has a slew of contenders for the silver including Chris Cammarata and Matt Peshek. Also sure to be in the mix is Landon Detweiler of Upper Perk. He dropped a very impressive mark at Paul Short (16:30s) which is the same course that he will traverse at districts.

AAA (5 Teams, 25 Individuals)

This is a unique year in the state of Pennsylvania. There’s a ton of drama across all the districts and classifications. The titles are fairly wide open almost across the board for districts and states. Things are just different this year. And, heck, take a look at some of the top names in the state right now. My projected top four finishers come from Bishop Shanahan, Souderton, Neshaminy and Owen J. Roberts. None of those programs have a particularly illustrious history. In fact, my senior year of high school those teams combined to send 0 runners to states out of AAA District 1. The top runner from any of those four schools was 45^th, Tim Haines of Neshaminy (future teammates with PTXC’s Dan Beck) and Owen J Robert’s top guy and I finished one second apart (I was 90^th for the record). And they finished 30^th, 34^th, 29^th and 38^th in the district respectively as teams.

Now Josh Hoey, Connor McMenamin, Rusty Kujdych and Liam Conway have a chance to break from the norm big time as one of them likely will end the day as district champion. My pick right now is Hoey, but that’s more of a gut feeling than a statistical analysis. I’d say the favorite is probably Kujdych and Conway is likely the long shot of the bunch.

I think that Ryan Campbell could potentially jump into this top tier as could Spencer Smucker if he shows he’s healthy and ready to roll. Those guys are both juniors to go along with Kujdych, Hoey and Conway in the same class. That’s a great group of talent.

There’s lots of names that I could discuss here (and I did a lot of it on the District One Preview Podcast), but I don’t want to fill up too much space. You can check out the full list of names by clicking on the link above and doing a little skimming. One thing I will say is there always seem to be certain teams that find a way to get a guy to state. Schools like Boyertown and Unionville come to mind. So keep an eye out for those team’s top runners as sleeper picks.

The team battle here should be a lot of fun. I’ve got CR North winning the title over DT West, although I’m a little nervous I’m underselling West’s pack. Personally, I just think West’s best effort will be seen at the state meet. However, Shaun Bullock could potentially have a big day on this course. He’s had a monster season and, in my opinion, has had some really clutch days on this lay out in the past. CRN and West have, on paper, perhaps the best #4 runners in the state. I’m excited to watch them match up in this one.

Spring Ford is a very interesting team. They had a huge day at Pioneer Champs last year and I jumped on the bandwagon, picking them to sneak into states at the #5 spot. Unfortunately, they got 6^th and missed out just barely against a great team led by an awesome front runner in CB East. This year, although they’ve had some ups and downs, the pack seems to be coming together at just the right moment and I find myself ready to jump on the bandwagon just as feverishly as I did before. I could see them taking second in this meet, but I’m trying to hold back on my enthusiasm just a bit. Where will that pack start? And will Milan Sharma continue his rise into top 25 contention? Those are a couple big questions we could see answered this weekend.

I was never too high on CB West, but you have to like what you saw out of them at leagues. Two years back, I picked against them for state qualifying and they made me pay, nearly surprising and winning the district. I’ve got them slotted for 4^th this year, but they have a chance to look very similar to Spring Ford if things break right.

The last spot looks up for grabs. Lower Merion has earned favorite honors in my eyes after an encouraging win at Centrals and a great run at Paul Short. They have a front runner, a nice group of top 40-60 types and a solid #5. That seems like a formula that could get the job done. But a bunch of teams will hoping to bust in and crash the party. I wrote down a long list of names when I was preparing for this preview of teams that I wanted to make sure I didn’t forget about for this topic. It got long pretty quickly.

Pennsbury, Conestoga, Henderson, WC Rustin, William Tennent, Souderton, North Penn, CB East … and I’ll probably still miss a school that ends up finishing in the top 8-10 (probably another Ches-mont school, maybe Owen J Roberts or Boyertown drops something). Conestoga and North Penn are just one breakthrough away from being right in the mix. Henderson and Pennsbury are two of the most consistent programs over the past five years. Rustin won the Ches-mont league and that usually guarantees a state birth (of course this was an odd year, but still). CB East may be my biggest sleeper. Getting 4^th at leagues could have been the best thing to happen to them. They will need Endres and/or Schulz to be in the top 25, but they’ve got the pieces to put together a big pack if they run with a little extra spark after getting bested at leagues.

Last thing I’ll say as I found this incredibly interesting. Who will be the top sophomore in the district? Dave Endres was tapped for that honor earlier in the year, but other guys have jumped up and joined the conversation. After last year, when we saw a terrific group of sophomores that included some eventual state medalists, will we see a breakout performer at the district meet? There’s not really an obvious choice. Keep in mind that district one has had at least one sophomore medal in the top 35 at states every seasons since 2008. Last year, they had four in the top 28.

District Week Previews: District Nine

by Jarrett Felix

Here's a link to the full breakdown in District 9

District 9 Championships 10/29

AA (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

Logan Caruso will be hoping for three in a row as the Bradford Junior goes for another district championship. Caruso has been consistently progressing during the season as he returns to full health and his improvement is definitely encouraging. I think he will grab gold in this one, but the Punxsutawney duo of Owen Barlebaugh and Ethan Brentham should give him a challenge.

That title will be as it looks to me like the Phils and Bradford will be locked in a tight team battle for the one state qualifying spot. Each position should be tight including the match up between Vinnie Bizzaro, Bradford’s #2 and the duo I mention above. But, as usual, the race likely will be swung on the 4-5 battles and where Clearfield, the other notable team in this district, fits into the equation. They could potentially be Bradford's best allies in this battle if they slip their runners in the right spots.

What’s exciting to me about this district is its youth. The best is yet to come for a lot of these runners as many of the top guys are either freshman or sophomores. I’ve got just one senior in my top 10 projected finishers.

A (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

This is going to be a fun match up. District 9 A has a pretty nice history of churning out top individuals and this year is expected to be no different. Brookville’s Inspector Gadget (cause he has the tools for everything) Ryan Thrush comes in as the district title favorite after his terrific spring and recent 3^rd place finish at Foundation. But he will have to deal with a pair of returning state medalists from Cranberry in Harrison Keenan and Sam Lander. Both have established themselves as excellent hill runners who are true XC guys.

That being said, I think the biggest threats to Thrush are some newcomers to the elite tear. I’ve been very impressed by the running of Zach Wortman of Elk County Catholic. He’s looked phenomenal so far this season, including a big time run at McQuaid. I’ve got Wortman as a top 5 contender at states and a win over Thrush at the district championships would go a long way toward bolstering that opinion. And let’s not sleep on the sophomore duo from Smethport. Christian Tanner and Darion Gregory both qualified for states a year ago as freshman and have taken big steps forward as they continue to mature.

In the team battle, the usual powers, Elk CC and Cranberry appear to be the favorites. Elk County Catholic will be a particularly noteworthy follow as they make their last impressions before states. At the end of the weekend, depending on how things go at WPIALs, ECC could end up the state title favorites in A. They have a strong front runner in Wortman and Logan Hoffman has been a great #2. Add in a pair of freshman brothers for each and the talented Matt Dippold and you have a top five with a lot of upside. If they can put five guys in the top 10 at a district as talented as this, that would be a big statement about their state championship chops.

District Week Previews: District Six

By Jarrett Felix

Here's the District 6 full breakdown on LXV+

District 6 Championships 10/29

A (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

Juniors Sam Cunkelman and Chris Colwell have both been tapped as the future of District 6 A. The pair were stars from their freshman seasons and, a year ago as sophomores, were the first two runners from their district to cross the line at states, placing 29^th and 34^th. The duo will go head to head for the district championship this weekend with Cunkleman as the favorite, but Colwell will give him all he can handle. The extra advantage Chris can boast is his Penns Valley teammates. The Penns Valley boys had a strong showing at the Foundation Invitational and appear to be contenders for a top five spot in the state behind Colwell’s leadership along with other top three stand outs Mark Bierly and Sam Gray (both also juniors).

Also contending for the individual crown should be Michael Peters of St. Joesph’s and Jacob Shulte of Bishop McCort. Peters was 4^th a year ago to help lead his St. Joesph’s team to a second place finish and state qualifying effort. The x-factor in the title match up could be another junior, Micah Kurka of Purchase Line. He’s been consistently improving in recent weeks and has a chance to pull off a spectacular finish in line with his 3^rd place run from a year ago. His finish will be critical as Purchase Line should once again be locked in a tight team battle for that second qualifying spot.  I’ve got them pulling this one out based on the league performance, but everyone brings their A game for the big meet.

AA (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

Central Cambria was your district champion a year ago, defeating a pair of District 5 teams for the title in Bedford and Somerset. This year, those District 5 teams have been given their own qualifying opportunity in a separate race, meaning this one is Central Cambria’s to lose. And CC has taken full advantage of the opportunity, putting on a pack running clinic in recent weeks. They have five or six guys who can step up and be the #1 runner on the team including Mike Walwro, Tyler Wilson and Ohm Vyas, varsity members on last year’s championship team, but also newcomers Zach Brandis and Nate Kuntz. I’m interested to see how much front running they have in this meet, as they will need a little extra punch out front if they want to compete with the big guns around the state, but this is a young team with a bright future. Each chance to build experience and learn will be important.

Individually, the youth movement continues as sophomore Mitchell Chunta sets his eyes on the individual crown. Some of the area’s best runners are running in the D5 meet this year, so Chunta has a bit more of an open path for the title. However, the Kohler boys from Tyrone area will stand in his way along with the army from Central Cambria. Rob Patrick of Longier Valley could also be a factor along with Brett Pope of Bellefonte Area.

AAA (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

State College has become the power in this district and that run of dominance is expected to continue. The Little Lions quieted any doubts I may have had about their depth at Mid Penns where they matched up nicely with some of the state’s elite programs. Nick Feffer, Owen Isham and Owen Wing make for a strong front running trio while Thomas Branstetter’s recent ascent as the team’s #4 has made them even more formidable. I’ll be watching the #5 spot to see if they cut the gap between 4 and 5, opening the door for something special at states.  

Mifflin County has had a strong season with a very young team. They will struggle to knock off SC, but I’m excited to see their young guys give it a shot. Chayce Macknair and Seth Phillips, a pair of sophomores, have both dipped under 17 this year already at Carlisle. Macknair in particular has caught my eye as a consistently strong front runner. If Freshman Chase Sheaffer is back and running in the top 3, combined with a big day from Garren Wolfgang like he had at Carlisle, Mifflin County could maybe sneak four guys into the state meet. However, Altoona’s 1-2 punch of Greg Williams and Brady McCarthy will likely break up any hopes MC has of “pulling a LaSalle” and qualifying for states the hard way. But stay tuned.

Moving Up: D3's Breakout Athletes

by Blake Behney

Districts are right around the corner, and District 3 is loaded with guys who have had breakout seasons. These are some guys who, in my opinion, have made the leap from good to great this season. Let me know if I missed anyone in the comments below.

Joe Cullen - Junior, Wyomissing (AA)
As just a junior, Cullen has already demonstrated his acumen on the oval. A 1:54 4x8 split in the state finals to go along with a 4:26 full mile and multiple low 50s splits in the 4x4 would be exceptional for anyone, but Cullen did it as just a sophomore this past spring. Previously, his XC credentials were inferior to his track times, but this season he’s flipped the script and tore up on the trails. His coming out party was PTXC, where he won the blue race and defeated a very game opponent in Red Land’s Nate Romberger. Then at Foundation, Cullen took it a step further, outkicking last year’s AA 8th place medalist Aaron Pfeil, a Top 50 member who’s having an exceptional season in his own right. Last week he won the Berks County league meet in 16:39. Right now, Cullen looks like the favorite for the District 3 AA title and a surefire state medalist with definite top 10 potential. With speed that’s arguably the best in AA right now, watch for Cullen to use his devastating kick early and often this postseason.


Alex Tomasko - Senior,  Mechanicsburg (AAA)
While teammate Morgan Cupp has grabbed the headlines in the past, Tomasko has really stepped up this season and established himself as a state medal contender on a Mechanicsburg team that could make some noise at states (if they qualify, D3 is loaded). He’s always been talented, but this past spring is when he really broke out, running 4:21 and 9:35 as a junior. I thought that would translate to the trails, but I never thought he’d run 15:37 at Paul Short or place 5th at Mid Penns (ahead of his teammate Cupp). Also, he added a another sub-16 mark at Carlisle, running 15:51. He’s proved me wrong all season, so now I’m officially hopping on the Tomasko train.


Ian Gabig - Senior, Camp Hill (A)
After serving as the #3 man on CH’s state championship team last year and finishing painfully close to a state medal (he was 26th), Gabig is back with a vengeance this fall. This spring was the beginning of his breakout when he displayed his mid-distance chops as a member of CH’s 4x8 and 4x4, which both medaled at states. His 1:58 and 52 low splits were crucial to the Lion’s grabbing some hardware. Additionally, he ran the 1200 leg on their DMR at New Balance Nationals. This fall, he didn’t wait long to make his presence known, finishing 3rd at Big Valley opening weekend with a 36 second PR of 16:21. He also won the AA/A race at Big Spring and, although he got out a bit too fast,  held on and placed 6th in the A race at Foundation. Additionally, he was the top PA finisher at Gettysburg with another sub-16:30 mark. Despite not running at Mid Penns, Gabig looks primed for a district title and top 10 finish at states.


Andrew Sullivan - Junior, Hershey (AAA)
Given Mike Morris’ struggles, the pressure was on for someone else to step up and keep the Trojans competitive. Enter Andrew Sullivan. After not running XC at all in high school, Sullivan offered us a glimpse of his potential during track, running 4:21 and 9:35. He didn’t have an exceptional showing at PTXC which left some doubt in my mind about whether he was ready for the trails, but responded in a big way by dropping a 15:54 at Carlisle and finishing in the top 20 overall. He also added an 8th place finish at Mid Penns last week, proving that his Carlisle race was no fluke. Given his rapid rate of improvement, Sullivan grabbing a medal at states would not surprise me at all.


Jared Giannascoli - Junior, Lower Dauphin (AAA)
It’s not often that your #3 is a 15:50s guy, but that’s the situation for Giannascoli. LD looks poised to make an impact at the state level this November and the junior is a huge reason why. After a spring season that saw him have several clutch runs as the anchor of the Falcons’ state-qualifying 4x8, Giannascoli has taken it up another notch this fall. He was already an exceptional talent, especially as just a sophomore last year, but a 15:52 at Carlisle signaled his transition to the district’s elite. A 16:20 at Big Spring proved to me that he’s poised for a top 10 finish at districts and potential medal run at states. Plus, Lower Dauphin is outstanding at peaking for this time of year, which swings even more in the junior’s favor.


Isaac Kole - Senior, Carlisle (AAA)
Giannascoli is among the best #3 runners in the state. However, I’m ready to give the title of best #3 to Isaac Kole for now. Kole and the Affolders complete a triumvirate that is unmatched across PA, and the much of the Thundering Herd’s state title chances rest on Kole. He was an above average guy last cross season but stepped it up on the oval and displayed range from 1:57 to 9:35. And it seems the arrival of the Affolders has lit a fire under him because he’s been absolutely crushing it this fall. His run a PTXC was quite good, but a 15:50 at Carlisle put everyone on notice. At Mid Penns, he ran what I consider to be the best race of his life, putting a bow on a 1-2-4 finish for Carlisle with a 16 flat at Big Spring, which is a hell of a time considering that 2 years ago, that would’ve been a course record. Personally, I don’t foresee a scenario where Kole misses out on a medal at states. He’s been extremely consistent so far and I don’t see any reason why that wouldn’t continue. Plus, he’s always got those two no-names ahead of him to chase.


Just missed the cut: Chad Long - Junior, Bermudian Springs (AA), Nate Romberger, Senior, Red Land (AAA), Nick Norton - Senior, Hempfield (AAA), Christian Groff - Junior, Hempfield (AAA), Colton Cassel - Senior, Lower Dauphin (AAA)

District Week Previews: District Three

by Jarrett Felix

Click here for a full breakdown of all the state qualifiers from this district

District 3 Championships 10/29

A (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

New this year, District 3 will be getting an extra helping of A squads. Defending state champions Camp Hill should be back to defend their title, but another spot is up for grabs in 2016. I’d guess this spot will go to Tulpehocken, a solid squad that has been overshadowed by the nice stretch Camp Hill has had in recent seasons. Jacob and John Cox along with Tanner Schlater should help pull this team into a state qualifying position.

Camp Hill is the favorite for both golds this weekend as Ian Gabig will be trying to keep the trophies in house. Gabig just missed out on a state medal last year, but seems like a top 10 threat in the state based on his early season performances this fall. He rolled through the competition at the Big Spring Invitational and seems like a safe pick for the title here. That being said, Caleb Sneller of Dayspring and Evan Schlosser of York Catholic have each shown flashes of big potential in recent weeks. I also like Morgan Morrison of West Short Christian as a potential sleeper.

I’m hoping to learn a little more about Camp Hill’s chances at the state championship this weekend. We know they lost some key pieces from last year’s team to graduation (and the blog picked one of them up), but they return Gabig and top 5 threat Dan Shank with Matt Little and Patrick Dorsey who, at the very least, have experience in high pressure situations. A dominate win this weekend could indicate this team is a top 5 threat at states. Especially when you add in that at least one District 4 and District 2 contender that could have been there last year will not be there under the new qualifying system.

AA (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

Last year’s AA District 3 Championships were loaded. But, for the most part, they were loaded with seniors. The top 7 runners were all seniors and 16 of the top 22 have graduated in total. Of those 6 returners, three of them ran for York Suburban, including the top 2 returners in Bryce Ohl and Jarrett Raudenski. So it’s not hard to guess who this year’s district favorite is. YS won the Foundation meet for the second straight season and stormed through their schedule to date. Peter Wagner has looked excellent so far this season and Josh Kerr has really made a nice leap. This could be a big chance for a statement victory for YS heading into the state meet where they will have revenge on their minds against Dallas.

But Wyomissing is hoping to give them a strong challenge. Earlier in the season at PTXC, Wyomissing hung tough with York Suburban, leaning on a very strong top 3. Freshman Ben Kuhn will be a big x-factor for them in this match up. How will he handle the pressure of the big stage?

I’ve got Trinity grabbing the third and final qualifying spot this year. Milton Hershey could potentially challenge as they’ve been close in the past and come up just short.

Individually, the title should stay with Wyomissing for another season. Junior Joe Cullen has been on fire this year. He won in the Blue Race at PTXC and finished second at the Foundation Invite behind only Isaac Davis. He’s fresh off a runaway victory at his league championship meet and still looms as a sleeper pick for state gold if he can keep close enough to the front runners to use his 1:54 speed. Behind Cullen, I’m expecting a trio of York Suburban runners to challenge and also Chad Long of Bermudian Springs who looked excellent at his league meet against those YS runners.

A sleeper pick here could be Silas Buckwalter of Donegal. He had a big breakthrough on this course when he finished first out of the AA runners at the Big Spring Invite earlier this fall. I also like Bradley Filler of Gettysburg and Ismail Kirkwood of Big Spring (running at home) as guys to make noise toward the middle/back of the state qualifying window.

AAA (4 Teams, 20 Individuals)

Well, we are here folks. We have finally reached the best district in the state in 2016. And yes, feel free to check, but this is indeed the District 3 Preview. Barring something impressive this weekend, District 3 will have the individual and team favorite for the state championship in house. They also have a ton of the top individuals in the state according to etrain’s top 50 rankings.

And here’s an interesting fact that should be mentioned. AAA District 3 has really struggled at the state championship in recent years for whatever reason. I’ve always speculated that it was due to the fact that D3 used to have to run Hershey back to back weeks. Our own Sean Collins noted to me on a podcast a few years back that he felt much of the disadvantage had to do with the change in schedule that came from racing mid-week and then going back to Saturday. Well, this season District 3 has finally eliminated both the mid-week race and the back to back Hershey course issues. Those factors being cleared away plus one of the greatest groups of talent for the district in recent history could be the perfect storm for the middle of the state.

As for this race in particular, I’ve got Noah Affolder winning the district title just as he has done all season. That being said, I believe he will be coming off getting his wisdom teeth removed and may be looking to conserve a little something for states. If Nate Henderson goes after this race from the gun at a super fast pace, it wouldn’t completely surprise me to see Noah hang back and take second. The only problem with that theory is that Noah is competitor and I doubt he will want to lose under any circumstances. He will likely give it everything he has to get first and score that 1 point in the team standings as well.

I’m excited to see Sam Affolder and Zach Lefever match up for the first time. I’ve gone back and forth on who I think would win in a match-up of these two and I think both are ultra-talented. This should be a great battle, especially if Lefever is over his recent sickness.

Then we have a ton of potential state medalists to sort through in the standings. Morgan Cupp and Alex Tomasko of Mechanicsburg have been very consistent all season long and seem like safe bets to place in the top 10. The Lower Dauphin duo has also been excellent, but their normal rotation got a bit of a shake up last race at Mid Penns when Kyler Shea finished as the team’s #3. Throw in Isaac Kole and Hempfield #1 Nick Norton and you have a mess of guys who will all be shooting for sub 16 on this tricky course (weather permitting). Yahya Soliman of Cumberland Valley had a terrific district championship performance at this meet last year and he can’t be ignored as a sleeper to break into the top 10.

There’s a ton of other excellent names at the top that I don’t want to waste a ton of time mentioning individually, so I highly suggest you click on the link at the top for the full breakdown.

Now, let’s talk team battle because that, to me at least, will be far more interesting. I personally feel like this team battle is going to be one of the best we see all season, even including the state championship. Carlisle should be able to take the victory. They have a reliable 1-2 punch that allow them to race 3 on 5 and their 5-6-7 runners have looked really solid as of late. I’d be surprised to see them outside first place and stunned to see them outside the qualifying group (top 4). Considering they made it in the past two seasons with, essentially, less talented versions of the same team, I’d have to say they’ve got good odds.

Cumberland Valley seems to have a knack for making states every year, no matter the circumstances. While this will surely be their toughest challenge, it’s hard to bet against the pack they have on paper. Higgins and Soliman are strong front runners and I’ve always thought Andrew Brown was a strong runner. If Nick Demario runs the way he did at Mid Penns, they will be tough to leave out of the state qualifying picture. If they get Gleeson back even better. There just seems to be enough depth here to get the job done, especially when so many other teams have depth concerns in this district.

Now those two teams are who I am most confident about. After that my feelings are a bit shakier. A couple of these top teams were missing someone at their league championships. Hempfield appeared to be missing Coby Mattes and Patrick Willig and, as a result, they got jumped big time by Manheim Central. Mechanicsburg was missing Michael Vigliano at Mid-Penns and, because they have a large gap between him and their #6, their score slipped a bit as well. Assuming that those runners return to the line-up, these two schools are my picks for the last two spots. That being said, I have a weird feeling that only Hempfield will be at full strength for this match up and, therefore, I’ve got them in and Mechanicsburg out.

I’ll say this real quick before I move on. The way Knepper and Sulon are running right now for Mechanicsburg, if Vig does come back, this team could potentially win the district and, therefore, potentially win the state championship.

Moving on. Lower Dauphin seems like a smart pick for this 4^th spot. But I have my reservations. Their top 3 is unreal, but I’ve been burned by that top 3 before. In year’s past, they’ve had this kind of low scoring top group and still failed to advance on to states. This year might be different, particularly because their 4^th runner Mark Walsh is crushing it recently. Still, Walsh is just a freshman so he may struggle at the most important point of the season. If he doesn’t, LD is in. If he does, that opens the flood gates.

I’m not ready to count out Manheim Central or Hershey. Both of these teams have fantastic top fours and are just a #5 away from being really dangerous. Manheim Central’s top 4 guys crushed this course when they came here back in September. I’d like to see a couple things from them if they want to advance. First, whoever their top guy is really needs to be knocking on the door for the top 10. MC can’t let teams like Lower Dauphin, Hempfield and Mechanicsburg put 3 guys in before their #1 runner. Then, they need to round out the pack. Hershey is a similar formula. Plus, they’ve had some demons at districts after big performances at Mid Penns. Maybe this year it flips.

But the team is Twin Valley. They are the school that I think could really mess up the whole equation (like Wilson last year and almost Twin Valley). This team had a killer pack at their league championships without their top runner. If he comes back, they have a front running presence to pair with a great pack that could tilt the landscape. On paper, it just feels like that pack is going to be too far back of the leaders to really make a dent in the standings. But don’t forget, Twin Valley finished 5^th last year despite the fact that they had no finishers inside the top 30 at the district meet. This year, you can make a case the pack is better. But is the rest of the district better as well? Maybe that will keep TV on the outside looking in this year.

Ultimately, I’m picking Carlisle-CV-Hempfield-LD for my top 4 teams. But boy it is going to be fun to see who proves me wrong. 

District Week Previews: District Ten

by Jarrett Felix

Catch the full breakdown by clicking here

District 10 Championships 10/29

AAA (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

A year ago, we witnessed a tight battle to the finish between a pair of sophomores, Ryan Zimmerman of McDowell and Peter Foradora of Dubois. The duo finished 1-2 within 3 seconds of each other. This year, those two will rematch, but the biggest threat for the title may be newcomer Jack Holmberg, Zimmerman’s classmate at McDowell. Holmberg has looked very strong thus far this season and solidifies a great 1-2 punch for McDowell who, in my opinion, will get their state qualifying spot back from Cathedral Prep this weekend.

Standing in the way of that obstacle should be Kyle Wagner and breakthrough performer Ryan Garich of Cathedral Prep. After not running varsity at last year’s district championship, Garich has really made a strong leap to bolster Wagner at the front of the pack. He too should be in the mix for the win out front. Overall, this district hasn’t made a ton of noise since the switch to three classifications, but I think guys like Foradora have a chance to make a big statement about their chances at states with a great race this weekend.

A (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

I really struggled with this one. Seneca is the mult-time defending champion. They return their entire top five from last year’s championship, including the Myers twins. They are fresh off a 4x800m state championship with four runners who are all contributing to the XC team. But I really like the team Mercyhurst Prep has fielded in recent weeks. We know about Noah Curtin, the 2015 district and state runner-up, but the emergence of Jimmy Zimmerman as a potent #2 makes the front-running between the two teams almost a wash. Then it just comes down to which pack will perform best.

I opted for Seneca’s pack as it is a bit more proven, but Mercyhurst Prep may be able to hang tough and steal this title. The big match-up may be at the #3 spot where Jack Groshek will run for MP against Adam Hanes from Seneca. If either of these guys pops off a big day and gets into the top 10 it will be a huge game changer for not just this weekend, but also next weekend in Hershey.

Individually, I see little reason to pick against Connor Walsh to deliver as repeat champion. The Cambridge Springs senior has looked sharp this year, including a sub 16 run at, punnily enough, Sharpsville. Walsh bested this same top group a year ago and has seemingly gained confidence each season since, including a strong showing at the outdoor state championships over 3200m. I see Myers as his biggest competition. After a 1:54 split on the track and a confident anchor run, Myers has been consistently strong this season and the trails. That speed also makes him extra dangerous if the finish is anything close.

A year ago, then sophomore Luc Tingley stepped up big time to take 3^rd overall at this meet. He may have a knack for running this course and, with the extra year of experience, he could potentially challenge the top group for an upset victory. Keep an eye out for bright young star Noah Bernarding, a freshman from Cochranton. He looked excellent at his regional meet and could carry that momentum through to districts.

Finally, watch the duo from Maplewood of Jesse Sands and Jeremy Gallagher. This pair will be trying to lift their squad to an upset state qualifying appearance. The team returns its entire top seven from a season ago where they were 6^th in the meet without a single state qualifier. That sets the stage for some potential redemption this time around.

AA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

I feel like I’ve been being pretty boring so far. Lots of favorites for the win. Lots of safe picks with established powers. Well, I’ll try to go out on a limb a little bit with this next pick. I’ve got Harbor Creek beating out the perennial super power Grove City at the upcoming District championship battle. Now it’s hard to bet against Grove City as they are always in the running for the state championship, let alone the district championship, but I’m a big fan of what Harbor Creek has put together. Their top 3 is excellent behind defending district champ (when he was a freshman), Ryan Stravaggi, fellow sophomore Aiden Weber and Junior Christian Babo. That top three all have top 5 finishes in the district to their name from their freshman years. The team’s #4 runner Jared Szklenski was 8^th a year ago in an impressive race. He’s been coming on very quickly in recent weeks, possibly indicating he is ready for another try at the top 10. With 4 in the top 10-12 finishers, this team will be tough to topple. They have had a gap from 4 to 5 in the early season, but at the regional meet, that gap looked to me like it was closing. Junior Nate Dougan was 25^th at districts last year and should be that #5.

Grove City will not go quietly. They have perhaps the favorite for the district championship individually in Jonah Powell as well as last year’s 5^th place finisher Braydon Pyle. Jacob Powell, Jacob Hughes, Tyler Quinn and Luke Owery will likely be vying for the other scoring spots. Can this pack keep close to Harbor Creek’s excellent front-running? Or will it not be enough?

Here’s what’s wild about this race. The top 22 runners from last year’s meet were all non-seniors. The top 22! That’s amazing. Of that 22, 6 were just freshman last year. Considering this year we have a few guys back after missing last year (like Christian Babo), a few guys who changed classifications (like Fairview’s Jameson Cook), and some super talented new freshman (like Patrick Stevens of Meadville), guys who were top 10 last year may not even be guaranteed a trip back to states.

Individually, beyond the top guys from the top teams, I’ll be closely watching Jake Lehotsky and Blake Ristau. These are a couple of seniors who, in a young field, will have the excitement and extra motivation that comes with your last district championships. 

District Week Previews: District Seven

By Jarrett Felix

Click here for the full breakdown

District 7 Championships 10/27

A (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

Sewickley Academy has won the past two district championships, but it appears this year a new champion will be crowned. The big favorites heading into the meet are Winchester Thurston, who has already won the Foundation Invite and nearly swept during their last trip to Coopers Lake. The team was missing two important pieces (Tristan Forsythe and Shaun Hay) in their last meet at Freedom so this race is still worth tuning into, but if those guys are healthy, I’d be surprised to see WT toppled. At the very least, this race will serve as big confidence builder as Winchester Thurston prepares one last time before Hershey where they will face a field of times eager to knock them off their perch.

The battle for second and third is a bit more wide open. As things stand right now, I’d bet on Riverview and Avonworth to punch tickets. Avonworth, the district champs in 2013, have been left out of the state championship picture the last two seasons. However, after a very encouraging track season that featured a medal worthy 4x8 relay, Avonworth has carried the momentum nicely through the season. Michael Noethiger has led the way for this team and should provide a strong front running presence. As for Riverview, they were the third qualifiers a year ago behind Sewickley Academy and Winchester Thurston and return a lot of firepower. Most notably, Ben Barnes is back after a 9^th place finish at Districts last year as just a sophomore.

We can’t count out Sewickley Academy. Although we haven’t seen much from them this year, there’s always the chance they saved up a little something extra for district championships. Their wins the past two seasons have both been upsets (in my opinion) and they return their entire district championship squad from 2015 on paper. Who knows if anybody is healthy, but even if they are missing a key piece or two, this team has proven they can peak at the right moment and grab a state spot.

Last year, the 3^rd and final state qualifying spot was decided on a sixth man tie breaker between Riverview and Shenango. And 5^th place was just 1 point back of the other two (and ironically had the fastest sixth man). We can only hope we get a finish just as thrilling this time around.

Individually, assuming he is healthy, Tristan Forsythe has emerged as the clear favorite for the title. He ran sub 15:40 at Paul Short, but also cruised to victory at Foundation. The junior is a state medalist for both indoor and outdoor track as well. He’s got all the skills needed to win gold. If he doesn’t toe the line, his teammate Ben Littman may be the next logical choice for victory. Littman finished 8^th a year ago and has medaled at states each of the past two seasons. However, this year has clearly been his best. After medaling in the 3200 on the track, Littman has cranked things up a notch during XC and has rarely been bested by anyone not wearing his same jersey.

Outside of the 1-2 punch from Winchester Thurston, there is still the rest of the WT pack with runners like Shaun Hay, Sean Heintzleman and Gordon Pollock who each have top 10 potential based on their last Slippery Rock performance. However, I’m thinking a few guys come in and break up their sweep. Most notably, Washington’s Ben Heim should be up in the front pack. Heim finished 10^th last year and is coming off a career year on the track. Ben Barnes, Chris Kocent and Jarrett Boyd are all also in the mix for a big day.

And hey, we should at least mention the three returning stars on Sewickley Academy’s roster: Griffin Mackey, Ben Clouse and Henry Meakem. If any of those guys are healthy and running near their best, they are contenders for the top 3.

AA (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

Earlier, I discussed how District 2 AA might be, pound for pound, the best district in the state. Well, this season the AA WPIAL will be looking to change that narrative. Especially now that they are down to just 3 teams and 15 individuals.

Individually, this district could pour a ton of guys onto the medal stand. Out front, you already have five guys coming back who finished in the top 13 at states last year. Yes, you read that right. The WPIAL boasts four of five of the first six returners from last year’s championships (only Isaac Davis breaks it up). They also bring back state medalists in Samuel Lenze (21^st) and Gannon Leech (A medalist last year). But wait! There’s more! We also have a trio from Greensburg Salem in Frankie King, Mark Brown and Cameron Binda who all could be state medalists if things break right.

This race is going to be spectacular. Leading the way, going for a three peat, is Zach Skolnekovich of Quaker Valley. He’s run away with titles at each meet this season and was 2^nd at states last year both in the fall and the spring. A big stretch run to his season and he will go down as a PA All-Time great. But he should have his hands full with Waynesburg’s Ben Bumgarner. The senior has been a tear this season, taking a mini leap from a guy who was already a top 10 runner in the state to a full-fledged title contender. Bumgarner struggled a bit at Coopers last year so he may be more vulnerable on this course than Hershey (where he excelled). But he’s still got an undefeated record to put on the table. And either he or Skolnekovich will lose that record this week.

The next tier of top talents will all team implications in the overall battle. Just three teams get to go to states and those teams will likely be Greensburg Salem (took the first five AA spots at Tri-States), Knoch (two time defending champs) and South Fayette (proven program with two top 10 guys in the state in Pfeil and Snodgrass). Greensburg Salem has looked phenomenal this season their top 3 is running really well. I want to see them throw down a statement victory this weekend and show me something in the 4-5 spot (which have looked great recently). They have a chance to be state champs in Hershey and a confidence building win this week could go a long way.

The other two programs will likely lean on their front running as well. I know the top guys on those schools are strong so I’ll be watching the packs. If those packs falter, there may be room for Uniontown or Indiana Area to slip in. Uniontown somehow always peaks well for this meet. They have a knack for showing up. Even when it seems like all their top guys have graduated, they rally a new squad and contend. This year they have Evan Klatt and freshman Sam Killinger leading the charge and keeping them in contention. They looked solid at Tri-States but were buried in the shadow of Greensburg Salem. They won’t be able to get to states if GS puts 5 in front of their 1 again, but I don’t think that’s happening this time around.

Meanwhile, Indiana Area has a very strong front runner in Samuel Lenze (kind of an under the radar type guy). Lenze really runs well on this Coopers course and has a couple top 5 finishes in the district already on his resume. Plus the Indiana Area team has a strong young pack who have grown a lot this year. Rocco Fanella qualified for states last year as a sophomore and is a great #2. If the pack behind him steps up, maybe they surprise.

And, of course, I’m sure Zach Skolnekovich would like to lead his Quaker Valley team back to the state championships. It’s been a surprisingly long drought for this team who was state champs back before the three classification move happened. Skolnekovich should start them out with a low stick, then it’s a matter of if they can beat out other top teams racing 4 on 5.

AAA (3 Teams, 15 Individuals)

I don’t think this has ever happened before in the history of my predictions. For the North Allegheny Tigers, I was extremely tempted to just write “NA 1, NA 2, etc.” instead of the actual runners names. Considering that A) I don’t even know for sure which seven are running and B) they all finished less than 10 seconds away from one another last weekend, I think it would have been a weirdly appropriate way to predict. Of course, I didn’t do that because, well, it seemed like cheating, so I took a stab at it. But I think that paints a picture of just what this NA team has looked like this year.

As I’ve said before, it’s hard to imagine a team running that closely together even if the goal was for everyone to run together, let alone if everyone is gunning all out. It’s just an epic display of competitive fire and team work. The pack has been both the down fall and the secret weapon for the Tigers as it has to be not only a mathematic advantage (they have one of the best 5s, 6s and 7s around) but also a mental one (imagine being on a competitor and being passed by 7 or 8 NA guys all at the same time!). They used it to their advantage at Tri-States, beating Seneca Valley and setting up the narrative of “Look out! Here comes NA and their pack!”

I personally love packs. I just find them really cool and it speaks to the team nature of XC that, in many people’s eyes, makes it so much better than track. But I will say, that I’m still a little apprehensive about picking the Tigers to win the WPIAL championship yet again. I won’t lie, I picked the Tigers (how can you go against that history?), but I think that Seneca Valley has a really, really good shot at beating them.

The loss to NA will only give Seneca Valley a little extra motivation and hunger going into this meet. And I really think they can improve in a couple spots. If Trey Razanauskus runs a little closer to Ketler and Owori, that’s a big swing. In their dual meet, Trey defeated all the NA Tigers. At Tri-States, Trey was behind 8 of them. That’s the potential for a massive swing as each Tiger he passes, not only gives him back a point, but pushes the others back one point each. And don’t forget, the SV 4-5 runners have been excellent in recent weeks. Alex Dixon and Christian Resch finished 18^th and 21^st at Tri-States, not far removed from the Tiger pack. They could hop in there and push them back a couple points.

The other big factor is, my favorite new term, the inflection point. Where are the dips in talent going to be? At Tri-States, there were just 2 places between Seth Ketler and NA #1 Dan McGoey and just 4 places between Owori and McGoey. At WPIALs, I think that gap is going to grow a bit more as you add in some top names from schools like Franklin Regional, Kiski, Fox Chapel, Hampton, Pitts CC, Norwin, etc.

But all that being said, I still picked the Tigers. They can survive an off day from one of their runners and still hold up strong. They have a freshman leading the charge, but they also have a slew of guys who were on a state championship team in 2014 and a state runner up team in 2015. All it takes is one step up day from somebody in that pack to lift them to new heights. I think it will be close, but I lean toward NA.

The third team spot has been penciled in, by me at least, for Mount Lebanon basically all year. That being said, they were missing usual #1 Bryce Brandenstein at Tr-States and that opened the door for an upset by Butler in the team standings 90-115. I assume Brandenstein will be back, but even if he is, Butler will be confident and hungry for that state birth. And just as hungry will be teams like Pitts Central Catholic (awesome top 4), Fox Chapel (intriguing 1-2 punch) and Canon-Mac (has pulled this sort of upset over Lebo before). A big day from any team could jump them ahead of Lebo in the standings even with Bryce back.

So basically, this team battle has it all.

Individually, there’s certainly a clear favorite in Mark Provenzo. Provenzo ran sub 16 on this course already this season, joining a pretty exclusive club. And Provenzo has yet to be bested by anyone within the AAA class this season in the WPIAL. However, you can make an interesting case for Butler’s Noah Beveridge after his big win at Tri-States over Casey Conboy of Baldwin. Beveridge has shown consistent, steady improvement this season and we already saw him take over a race at Coopers once this season. I’d put my money on Provenzo, but Beveridge has a chance to make things interesting.

Conboy will also have a chance to spring the upset. He hasn’t beat Provenzo yet, but he’s hung around better than anyone else this season. Tri-States may have just been an off day for him and he could potentially come right back after Beveridge at Coopers looking for revenge. Regardless of how it shapes out, I’d be surprised to see anyone else break into that top 3.

Of course there are guys who could do it. To me, it feels like there is one runner each year who sort of comes out of left field to break into the top 3-5 and carries the momentum through to states. Mike Kolor, Jake Susalla, Mark Provenzo come to mind as guys who made nice leaps into impressive WPIAL runs. This year, it seems like Sam Owori is a good pick after his recent successes at Foundation and Tri-States, but I also like Matt Busche of Franklin Regional as a sleeper. He trains with Provenzo and has made huge leaps since the start of the season. This guy is on a roll. There’s also Kiski’s Eric Kennedy who is a huge talent, especially on the track. As far as I know, this is one of the few times we’ve seen him make it to this point in the season completely healthy and strong. That could be trouble for the rest of the WPIAL.

This year also has a chance to be the year of the freshmen. There’s Dan McGoey of North Allegheny who has grabbed some headlines (Matt McGoey was district champ back in 2014), but we have also seen Christian Fitch of Fox Chapel and Zach Leachman of Mars put up some really impressive marks. Fitch had a fantastic race the last time he hit Coopers (3^rd behind Provenzo and Conboy only) and Leachman just torched a difficult Tri-States course (4^th overall). Throw in Patrick Anderson of Lebo and we are looking at four freshmen who all have top 20 potential.

Last thing I will say is keep an eye on Hamptons top couple guys. Maybe it’s just my imagination but Hampton always seems to have a great day at Coopers. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the surprises of the meet comes from Hampton. 

District Week Previews: District Twelve

by Jarrett Felix

Check out the full break down by clicking on this link

District 12 Championships 10/27

A (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

Historically, this district has belonged to Masterman. They rolled through the championships a year ago behind Joe Previdi, the district champion. Although they graduated some of that core, they return enough pieces to give me confidence their dominance is not finished. I’m not predicting quite a 1-5 sweep like last year, but I do think they can put this one away with under 30 points.

Individually, however, the title could be up for grabs. At the public league champs, Daniel Bici of Masterman was 3^rd overall and clearly #1 in A (46 seconds ahead of Josue Marcelin of Paul Robeson). However, at the Catholic League champs, speedster Kamil Jihad ran within 15 seconds of Bici. It’s possible that the speedster (1:52 800 runner as a sophomore last year) could hang around and throw down a kick to upset Bici on championship day. It will be a classic matchup of strength and speed on a hilly course that will make for an honest fight.

Now there are two spots and 10 individuals up for grabs so there should be plenty of intrigue on race day beyond Masterman and Jihad. I’ve got Paul Robeson taking the #2 spot behind a very talented top 3 that includes the Marcelins and Anthony Clement. Some individuals who could make noise include Joey Lounsberry of Bishop McDevitt and Camilo Ruiz, a sophomore from Science and Leadership.

AA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

At the front of this field, we have some familiar jerseys. The boys from Bonner have had a strangle hold on the District 12 AA title in recent years and in 2016 Anthony Harper and Dave Whitfield look like they should help keep at least one gold in house. Harper had an excellent Foundation Invite performance and Whitfield, already a solid XC runner, has had one of the most consistent progressions in the district, recently culminating with a 14^th place finish at PCLs.

However, the team title appears much more up for grabs. Despite their 1-2 punch, Bonner had no one else in the top 60 finishers at PCLs. The front running advantage that helped them topple Conwell-Egan and Lansdale Catholic will be neutralized in a smaller, less talented field out front. So the question becomes, can Conwell-Egan and Lansdale Catholic use that tighter spread to slip ahead of Bonner (Egan had 5 in front of Bonner’s 3 at PCLs, LC had five in before their five)? Or will Bonner’s pack step up to fill in behind a likely 1-2 finish from their top two? It’s going to be tough for any other team to topple Bonner when they are essentially racing 5 on 3.

I picked against Bonner in this one because I’m a little nervous about their spread, but I could definitely see them advancing. I could also see one of the Philly public schools like Motivation breaking into the mix. Ultimately, I went with Conwell-Egan and then Lansdale Catholic so hopefully that provides a little motivation (if you will excuse the pun) for any of the other schools reading this to take care of business.

Individually, I mentioned Harper and Whitfield at the top and I expect a 1-2 finish out of them. Filling in some of the other 10 spots, watching for Steven Lebron of Creative & Performing as well as teammate Jeremy Fincham.

AAA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

Speaking of motivation, I’m interested to see what kind of motivation O’Hara and LaSalle have at the district championships this weekend. These two schools faced off for a much more coveted title, the PCL championship, this past weekend and fought tooth and nail for the victory. Ultimately, LaSalle pulled out a narrow win by just 2 points. This week, I don’t think either cares much about the title, they would just like to make sure they qualify for states, which neither should have too much trouble doing. These teams will both be actively involved in my state championship preview, so I won’t touch too much on them here when the drama is a lot lower, but I will make a couple quick points.

First, you have to like what you are seeing from O’Hara. Patrick James is looking a little bit more consistent, Ryan James could be a top 3 guy in the state and the 4-5 guys are coming on strong. Ryan James’s front running advantage should be more beneficial at states with more talent out front, but to be fair, LaSalle’s tight spread would also get some help at a larger meet. If O’Hara is going to jump LaSalle in two weeks they will need to 1) really take advantage of that top 3 and 2) keep things tight with LaSalle’s pack.

On the flip side, LaSalle continues to showcase an absolute army of bodies. They have so much talent on that roster its impressive. However, this team has had quality packs before. What they will need to win states is front running. Well, that front running did work at PCLs as Evan Addison took 2^nd overall and Stephen Paul finished 4^th. For all the talk about depth, those two match-ups against Inglis and Patrick James decided the championship. I’m also very excited to see the first of LaSalle’s unreal freshman duo in the varsity line up. Vincent Twomey showed up big time in his debut and I think there is a chance we see Ethan Maher next week as well (he won the freshman race by 41 seconds in 17:18, a time that would have been 13^th in the varsity race without factoring in the lack of competition).

Both teams should still have championship aspirations for Hershey. But that likely means they will try and coast as best as possible in this one.

Interestingly, there’s a chance the PCL produces three teams for the state championship this year. No need to double check the “2 Teams” part of the above, it’s accurate. But St. Joe’s Prep would qualify for states as a team if they have at least five runners who qualify through the individual selection process. Basically, if you throw out O’Hara and LaSalle, St. Joe’s needs at least 5 of the top 10. It’s possible, but it’s going to be hard. There’s not a lot of wiggle room here.

If you look at PCLs, Sean Brown (excellent runner, real chance at top 50 at states) and the Bonner boys (AA) were the only non O’Hara-LaSalle runners in the top 15. St. Joe’s Prep had the next 4 spots, 2 runners from Wood and Father Judge, and then two more Prep guys. So if only the AAA PCL schools were in the district, SJP would be projected six state qualifiers. But there will be plenty of public school kids in the mix, particularly the duo from Central of Skylar Scarfidi and Chris Carson. I’d be surprised to see either of those guys outside the top 20 overall.

I feel the big drama in this one will come from the St. Joe’s Prep squad rather than the O’Hara-LaSalle match up (unless these teams secretly care more about a district title than I think they do). So keep an eye on the SJP pack in the results, do some counting and see where it gets you.

One more quick thing that I couldn’t resist mentioning. LaSalle, by my count, had 16 guys under 18 minutes at Belmont between the three PCL races. In total, the non-O’Hara schools at PCLs had 5 and there were just two in the Philly Public race held on the same course. In other words, it’s not outlandish to think LaSalle could have had a JV squad qualify for states at the district meet were they allowed to do such a thing.

District Week Previews: District Four

by Jarrett Felix

Check out the full place by place breakdown by clicking here

District 4 Championships 10/27

AA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

District 4 was upgraded a team and 5 individuals in 2016, opening the door for a few more runners from a very successful district to take their shot. It’s a good thing because I was torn between Milton and Lewisburg for the top spot and now I can just throw them both in!

I like what I’ve seen from Milton this year, especially their top two runners Tyler Lesser and Seth Kendall. They had big days at districts a year ago, placing 7^th and 9^th as sophomores, but missed out on the chance to compete at states as they weren’t in the qualifying 5. With a little extra fire this year and the sophomore-junior jump, I expect big things from these two and their low sticks should help carry the team home.

Lewisburg is always a strong program, but they’ve been beat out for the state qualifying spot the past two seasons, last year thanks to an upset victory from Mifflinburg. One of their key front runners, Anthony Bach, didn’t race in the team’s last contest, but if he’s back in the line-up it’s a huge lift (he was 2^nd at districts last year). Lewisburg still has Nick Alico to lean on at the front in his absence. Jack Spaulding will be the x-factor if this team is going to beat out Milton for the District title.

Individually, this race should belong to Isaac Davis. He’s been absolutely dominant this year against District 4 competition and also ran away from the field at Foundation in September. There may not be anyone in the state who could beat him, let alone from in his own backyard. That being said, I’m excited to see how Loyalsock’s Quinn Serfass handles the match up. Serfass ran 15:57 at Paul Short (running unattached) and moves up from A last year. I don’t think he’s quite on Davis’s level, but his Lehigh race was a big breakthrough. I’m interested to see if he can keep things close or if Davis will run away from him the same way he has the others.

Serfass is far from a lock for silver as the previously mentioned Tyler Lesser has tracked well behind Davis in recent weeks. He also has 1:55 800m speed to try and hunt down anyone who goes out too hard trying to run a fast early pace.

Matt Leiby from Danville would by my sleeper pick. I’m also watching for Cassidy Hoffman of Warrior Run and Madden Doud of Conwanesque Valley. We will also see if Isaac Davis will be accompanied by any teammates to the state meet this year. They’ve likely learned a lot running behind him this season.

A (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

I’d argue that this is going to be the best winner-take-all match-up of the entire district week. Two of the top teams in the state come in, only one leaves with a golden ticket to Hershey. In one corner is Northeast Bradford. They are the consistent power with championship pedigree. Since the inception of the three classification system, NEB has always worked its way into team title talks. A year ago they won the district championship with a score of 40 points, 64 ahead of second place.

In the other corner, is the challenge Southern Columbia. They were third a year ago, missing out on a state qualifying spot by just 20 points. That team featured three freshmen, including 5^th place finisher Ethan Knoebel. Southern Columbia showed they were ready for the big stage at the Foundation Invite, placing 2^nd overall in the loaded team competition.

Both teams deserve a ticket to Hershey, but, unfortunately, only one is up for grabs. My pick is Northeast Bradford. I think they are just a bit deeper and should have the firepower out front to hold off SC’s counter. Personally, I think Casey Ellis of NEB might end up a ton 10 finisher at states when all is said and done. Garret Smith is a proven top 30 finisher in the state and Zak Smith is a very talented sophomore who should match up well with some of Southern Columbia’s guys like Nick Kuzo and Jacob Petro (also a sophomore).

Individually, this race has the potential to be exciting as well. Defending champion Hunter Crawley is hoping to keep the title with South Williamsport for a 4^th straight season (and they’ve got a talented sophomore Tayge Molino being groomed behind him). However, Crawley will have his hands full with Casey Ellis and Ethan Knoebel both hungry for the title. Hunter had a solid showing at Paul Short, but he seems a little vulnerable this year, especially compared to last. Will he hold on for a second straight victory?

In the sleeper category, watch for Wellsboro’s Aidan Perry, another very talented sophomore as well as Alex Patton, a frosh from Wyalusing. These guys have a chance to break up the fun for any seniors hoping to make a championship trip in their last district championships. Overall, I’m projecting the front of this race to be a pretty young group so it should be fun to watch the next generation emerge.

Friendly reminder for those looking, AAA District 4 runs in a combined regional meet with AAA District 2. Check out the D2 preview for more information.

District Week Previews: District Eleven

By Jarrett Felix

District 11 Championships 10/26

Click here for the full breakdown.

A (1 Team, 5 Individuals)

Not to sound really old, but if you do this long enough, each year kinda starts to look the same. There are certain programs who, for whatever reason, find a way to stay at the top and the top runners tend to be from many of the same places. So, especially with the small districts that aren’t my specialty, I’m always nervous to pick against the traditional powers.

This year the battle will be between Notre Dame ES, the incumbent state qualifiers, and the upstart group from Mahanoy Area. A year ago ES kept the crown in house with three of the top six overall, overcoming a tight Mahanoy pack that featured a 41 second spread. But this year, I think Mahanoy may have the pieces to get the win. Notre Dame loses three of their top five from districts and, although they have my pick for district champ in Andrew Beers, I think Mahanoy may be able to use a slightly higher up pack this time around and get the gold. The difference maker could be their talented freshman Adam Soriano. He led the team at Foundation and the Schuylkill Championships. The latter of which, the team posted a 42 second spread with six runners in the top 30.

That being said, Notre Dame ES certainly won’t go quietly. And heck, even Moravian Academy will be a factor in a potentially tight team title race. They have an awesome sophomore, Jordan Holmquist, who was 9^th in 2015 at districts. Hunter Zahm has also looked strong and that 1-2 punch is perhaps the best in the district.

AA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

So I’m picking Mahanoy for the win, am I ready to pick another untraditional state qualifier? The North Schuylkill boys ran away with their league title, sweeping the first 4 spots and placing 6 in the top 12. But they have an up-hill battle against the district’s two traditional powers: Allentown Central Catholic and Notre Dame Green Pond. Those two schools earned the state qualifying spots a year ago fairly comfortably as North Schuylkill finished 5^th.

NS should be a little hungrier after missing out, particularly their front runner Chris McCormick who finished 34^th at districts last year, but won the league title the last time he hit the course. Sophomore Sean McCabe also looks like a great young talent who could make noise at districts. He was 20^th at the meet a year ago as just a freshman.

However, Notre Dame GP has their own talented youngster. Sophomore John Koons is my pick to win the district title this year and that kind of low stick should be super valuable for ND GP. Green Pond returns 4 of their top 5 from the state qualifying team a year ago and had five runners at 17:16 or faster over three miles at McQuaid. I think the battle for the last qualifying spot comes down to this school and North Schuylkill.

Ultimately, I have Allentown Central Catholic pulling out the title. They have a big up-hill battle considering North Schuylkill beat them by a mammoth 116 points at Foundation, but they have made big strides in recent weeks. Most notably, Michael Graspy is showing signs of the form that helped him finish 5^th at Districts a year ago (top returner). Allentown CC is piecing together a capable pack that will be able to match up well with North Schuylkill and, given their recent victories at the district meet, I think they put it together.

For whatever reason, I couldn’t bring myself to pick North Schuylkill over Notre Dame, but I hedged with 4 NS guys grabbing individual state qualifying spots. That’s basically an impossible circumstance, so I won’t get that 100% (not that that was ever going to happen), but it should indicate my conflicted feelings. Sometimes, I put my faith in history. Sometimes that pays off, but other times we witness something great.

A lot of the top individuals have gotten love in this preview already, but I will give a shout out to Ethan Bernstein of Saucon Valley and Robert Leiser of Northwestern Lehigh. These two, in my opinion, have the best shot at beating Koons for the district title. Bernstein crushed it at Paul Short with a mark in the low 16s, but the District course is a lot slower than Lehigh. I’m curious how he will handle the transition, but I like the kid’s talent.

AAA (2 Teams, 10 Individuals)

At Paul Short, the Parkland boys looked surprising vulnerable as Stroudsburg came within a few points of pulling off the upset. However, the Park came back at EPCs to show why they were in many people’s pre-season top 10 lists. Lead by Michael Geiger’s 2^nd place finish, Parkland rolled to a 32 point score, defeating Easton (74) and then Stroudsburg (111) in what is essentially a preview of the same field we will see at Districts. With all 7 varsity runners in the top 20 overall finishers, Parkland is deep and talented. It would be a big surprise to see them drop their district title.

The more compelling battle has become the fight for second. Easton, who qualified for states each of the past two seasons, finished 208 points back of Stroudsburg at Paul Short, but flipped the script on them at leagues. The performance was even more impressive when you consider the fact that their #1 man at Paul Short (Stephen Kraus ran 16:22) was 15^th and has the potential to jump up a few more spots at Districts. The big difference maker for Easton was freshman Jonathan Miers. Miers finished 11^th overall, just behind Stroudsburg’s monster 1-2 punch of Mostellar and Bodon after not racing in the top 7 at Paul Short. He was a big lift. Considering Easton’s recent success (they were 5^th in the state in 2014), I lean toward them staying on this hot streak and holding on to qualify for states in the 2^nd spot.

However, Stroudsburg won’t go quietly. One of the names to watch will be Edwin Marrero who ran 16:52 at Paul Short, but roughly 2 minutes slower at EPCs. A big day for him would really help the cause. Marrero and whoever ends up in the 5 spot will have to do a good job racing jerseys in the mid pack, but if this team matches their Paul Short performance they will be very strong.

Individually, like Parkland, there is a clear favorite. It’s Pleasant Valley’s Seth Slavin, who has finished at the top of many invitational fields and was 2^nd at last year’s district meet. Plus, he won EPCs by an impressive 30+ second margin. His teammate, Gabe Sullivan, has bene close behind Slavin in most of the big meets this season, including a sub 16 performance at Lehigh. He wasn’t quite at that level at leagues, but don’t be surprised if he jumps back up closer to Slavin’s shoulder this week.

I’m excited to see which Parkland runners end up in the top 5 this week. They’ve got some nice rotation on their pack, but Michael Geiger has shown flashes of state medalist potential. A second straight silver would really boost his candidacy. And don’t forget about Sam Morgan. He already owns a district title from his surprising win in the 1600 last track season as just a sophomore. Morgan is coming off his best race of the season in 3^rd overall at leagues.

Some other guys who deserve a shout out include Joseph Ozgar from Easton, Nicholas Bower from Parkland and Emmaus’s Del Vierling. I also like Thomas Matsumara as a sleeper pick from Southern Lehigh.