by etrain11
The etrain mailbag is returning! Get your questions in for etrain by email jarrettfelix1130@gmail.com, in comments or on twitter @TheRealTrain11. He won't be bringing you any top 500 lists, but he should still have some tricks up his sleeves for his fans. Get involved and have your voice heard! To get everybody excited, here's a little mailbag from some fake readers ...
What gives etrain? I thought you already took your vacation! Where have you been? - loyalfan
Well I used basically all of my family's monthly data in a week watching the world championships on my phone on the way into work. So then my internet privileges were provoked and there was no way I was going to be able to post.
Ok no one buys that? Alright the truth is I was adding up all the best 1600m, 3200m and 5000m times to make a ranking system for the blog. So I was way too busy to do any posting.
Alright, I admit that list sounds pretty made up and ridiculous, you caught me that's a lie too. Honestly truth, I've been working on recruiting meet directors to send results our way for the new site we are preparing: lxvplus.blogspot.com. I've got high hopes for it, but it's going to take a lot of work.
But I figure now is the time because during the season I will be doing my Top 50 every Tuesday, the Mailbag every Thursday or Friday (possible biweekly) and Team Rankings every 2-3 weeks. I will be hibernating these next couple days to prepare.
What meet are you looking forward to most this first weekend? - Lief Erikson
Even though it likely won't be bringing any of the 15:18 type times of old with the new course set up, the Viking Invitational is the one to watch. I'm intrigued to see Brophy racing in early September considering that his ultimate goal is to win the national championship in December. I don't expect him to be in top shape just yet, he's got some time to build up. That could potentially leave him open for an upset (although it's still going to be near impossible to beat Brophy).
It also will be fun to watch CB East and CB West, a couple of rivals with serious state aspirations racing each other for the first of many battles. CR North always comes to this meet, but they usually are not in top form just yet (for good reason). All the same, I'm curious who is going to step into the leadership roles on that squad, this is our first chance to take a look.
Apparently Henderson is entered? But Oakburne is this weekend so I'm not really expecting to see them toe the line with these other squads. Still something to keep an eye on I suppose.
Which individuals do you expect to steal the show this first weekend? - Curious Felix the Cat
The obvious name here is Hockenbury who came out guns blazing in week one last year in the first weekend (I believe he will be at Cliff Robins). If you haven't seen his logs, then I can summarize for you: the kid is working hard. I picked him to make footlocker nats last year as a surprise upset pick and, unfortunately, he just missed out. This year he seems driven to avenge last year's finish. Obviously, you don't want to be too sharp too soon, but I'd like to see how this year's time compares to last year's.
I also want to see what Tucker Desko is able to do for Pennridge at the Viking Invitational. The guy had a really impressive stretch run to the track season and could really shine this season. But there are always questions about how a track guy will transition to the trails.
Out west at the Gateway Invitational, I'll be watching for Casey Conboy and Jake Susalla. Conboy looked very strong on the track towards the end of last spring after some stand out races on the trails in the fall. He is a sleeper out of the WPIAL this year. Susalla is arguably the favorite for the WPIAL title this year in XC after a fantastic year in 2014. How does he handle the pressure in his first appearance of 2015?
How bad will the Sixers be this year? Should I just enter into a coma until 2020? - AI Fan90
Here's the thing, yes the Sixers will of course be bad. If we aren't bad enough, we will get worse. That's all part of the plan. But here's the thing, I'm hoping to catch a few games this year and I'm kinda looking forward to it. Like of course we will be bad, but we have some fun dudes and we finally have a Rookie who is 100% healthy! Plus we could realistically have two top five picks next year in the draft! And we are still waiting on Dario to come back over!
And as long no one points out the reality of the situation and how we have wasted multiple seasons on three dudes who practically play the same position, one of which might never play at a decent level and we still are no closer to getting to a top level in a horrible conference then I will continue to be excited!
You play any fantasy football? Who is on the squad this year? - Sam Radford
I had the first pick in my fantasy league this last weekend and I could have had anybody in the league. I decided on Demarco Murray. And I handicapped him later on with Darren Sproles.
See the above question for clarification on my being a huge homer.
Give us a bold prediction for this weekend to finish off the mailbag - putem onda spot
The fastest time of the weekend will come from somebody who is not on the etrain top 50.
And no that doesn't count the 2.35 miler at Enos Yeager.
Showing posts with label mailbag. Show all posts
Showing posts with label mailbag. Show all posts
etrain Mail Bag: PA's best weekend ever?
“Between Baldwin, Henderson and
other great meets, was this past weekend the best non-championship weekend in
state history? I mean some of these times were incredible” – Jarrett
Felix
Great
question self, and, since I thought you might ask this, I’ve taken a look at
some numbers to break down. As some of you probably know I keep an unofficial
PA All-Time list[1]
and I had to do a ton of re-writing recently to that thing after the craziness
that was spawned last weekend. Let me throw some numbers at you[2]:
Last
weekend featured the #5, #13, #14, #25, #35, #37, #38 and #40 All-Time individuals
in the history of the state for 3200m. It also featured #22, 46 and #63 for the
1600m and #21, #47, #62 and two more at #87 in the 800m. Those marks don’t even
count the guys who went faster at other points in their career and, therefore,
didn’t move on the list (Lewis’s 1:51 would be in the top 25 or so and Ritz’s
3:50 for 1500m would translate to a top 5ish mark). Brophy became the first
Junior that I know of to clock sub 9 with Dahl becoming the first soph I know
of to run 9:02. In my entire known history of the state. Peretta was
responsible for two of those times by himself. And these numbers don’t even
account for the marks put up by guys like Hoey, Emmanuel, Eddinger, Gunzenhauser,
Heinauer and Curtin who all broke my 9:20/4:17/1:55 cut-offs.
“Who are the top AA 4x800m
contenders this year?”
– parunning
Trinity-
A really strong program that is always in the mix at states. They are led by
Gross who has already thrown down a couple 1:57 type marks this season.
Mt. Caramel- I’m all aboard the bandwagon. Fletcher is an animal and just recently ran a 1:55 plus they have Moser, Fisher and Bartos available (all excellent during the fall with potential to translate to a nice 800 leg). More importantly, I think they have a real chance of buying in and going all in for this gold.
Mercyhurst
Prep- They have been one of the best teams by time so far this spring and they
have one of the best and most versatile runners in the state in Sebastian
Curtin. They came together brilliantly for the stretch run during XC and now
are looking poised to do something similar this spring.
Lakeland-
It’s possible this relay could be two guys named Arzie and two guys named
Morgan. How cool would that be? Have we ever had two sets of brothers combine
for a state title in the relay? Regardless Nate Morgan and Mark Arzie are probably
one of the best 1-2 punches in the state. This program has banged out 4x8s
consistently and they have been on the verge of a title for a while now. The
only concern is individually, Morgan and Arzie have both struggled to make the double
after the 4x8. Maybe as Seniors they finally decide to skip the relay and go
for individual honors. However, I doubt it. I think they are all in for gold.
A few
other “sleepers”: Seneca, North East, Elk County Catholic, Minersville and
Masterman.
“Will Jordan Geist break 70 feet
in the Shot Put as a sophomore?”
– Sean
Well
this is usually the time where I would turn to my excellent writer Sean Collins
and ask him for advice in answering a question pretty far out of my wheelhouse …
but seeing how he asked the question …
I’ll
say yes. I don’t have the facts to back it up, I just kind flipped a coin and
landed on optimism. Go Jordan!
“Smucker or Hoey, overall,
combination between XC and track?”
I’m
going to start by dodging this question to point out how amazing this freshman
class is. It seems like every day a new stud is emerging from the shadows to drop
a fast time. The 800m right now is crazy with Jihad running 1:55, CB West’s
Claricurzio[4]
splitting 1:56, and guys like Garnet Valley’s Weir emerging with a 1:58 at
Central Leagues. Liam Conway is sub 4:30 and well under 2 plus Rusty K from
Neshaminy dropped a 9:42 3200m at Henderson in a winning effort as well. When I
was a freshman, I didn’t even own a pair of spikes and these kids are already
putting my dream times to shame.
But
focusing up on the question at hand this is a tough one. As people know, I
thought Josh had an underrated XC campaign[5].
He’s proven himself thoroughly on the track (9:30ish at Henderson 32, 4:19 full
mile, 1:58 800m) and beyond the impressive times, he is racing really well. He
has won a few impressive meets and he ran an excellent anchor leg on the DMR at
indoor states. Plus his best race of the XC season was at the Independent
League Champs at Belmont. For a freshman to rise to the moment like that is
amazing.
However,
it’s worth noting that Smucker, who is posting impressive marks of his own on
the track in the 2 flat/4:27 range, didn’t run indoors and probably barely
trained[6] during
that stretch because he was dedicated to wrestling. So it’s natural and
expected for him to start behind the eight ball on the track. We won’t be able
to truly judge the comparison until post districts/Henderson distance festival.
Plus, in general, I’d imagine that Josh’s younger years allowed him to gain
more experience, coming from a running family and likely a reasonably active 8th
grade running career. I read somewhere that Smucker’s state meet 5k was only
the 7th or so 5k he ever ran.
I
wish we would have gotten to see these two head to head at states in XC because
that was really Smucker’s defining moment. I think Josh could have been up
there with him and that would give us two freshman placing as high or higher
than Jake Brophy did as a freshman. And that kid is pretty good now a days (and
yes, we will get to that shortly).
For
now, I’d give the nod to Josh. He’s got the times and had a strong XC career,
even if it didn’t feature a moment quite as special as Smucker’s 24th
at states[7].
But this conversation will continue all next fall in the Chesmont league[8].
“Does Brophy have a shot at the PA
two mile record by the time he graduates next year?”
I
start first by admitting that, although I thought Brophy would win at
Henderson, I sincerely doubted he would get under 9 minutes. My natural
instinct is to hedge away from fast times unless I can truly feel it coming[9]
and a time like 8:49.68[10]
is still one of the most absurd marks ever run by a PA kid. Honestly, Springer’s
record run in 2007 was one of my first “oh my god” moments in the sport and as
a freshman in high school, that time just completely blew my mind. Now that I
fully have time to wrap my head around it, the time might be even more
impressive.
But
with all that said, I 100% believe Brophy has a shot at this record by June
2016. A lot needs to go right, but the talent, work ethic and mental fortitude
seem to be there. At this point, Brophy has already clocked 8:57, putting him
roughly 4 seconds ahead of where Springer was at the end of his junior year[11].
Brophy also annihilated a state record in cross country and won a state title
on the trails, something that Springer was never able to do. Plus Brophy closed
in 3200m in a reported 58ish second final lap, a really impressive close
considering that 9:00 is 67.5 seconds per quarter. To me, that means he could
have theoretically ran even faster in a differently constructed race.
Hypothetically, if you throw current Brophy in the Russell-Deluca-Wilson state
championship from a year ago, I think the fast early pace from Russell and Dom
sets the tone for an epic kick down from Brophy and Wilson and puts him in the
8:55-8:56 realm.
And
also keep in mind that this spring
isn’t even over yet and we still aren’t sure if Jake will a) run faster in the
potentially loaded 3200m that I discussed briefly in my previous post or b)
pursue a national meet and try and run fast against the best possible
competition[12].
He’s already made a reasonable jump in fitness from winter to spring so is it
absolutely crazy to think he could cut another 5 seconds off his mark this
year? I don’t think so.
But
there’s a flip side to this. First of all, and most obvious but most important,
he needs to stay healthy for the rest of his high school career. I think
Russell last year could have dipped into a faster range at a National type meet
if he stayed healthy past states. Ethan Martin may have ended up sub 9 like his
brother had he been able to fight off the injury bug. Who knows where Jaxson
Hoey would be had he stayed healthy through XC? Really you need luck on your
side in this equation and that’s something no one can predict.
Secondly,
Springer was/is a faster miler than Brophy and that will matter. Springer won
an indoor state title in mile as a Junior and then again as a senior. He ran
sub 4:10 before all was said and done and had a reported 1:52 4x8 split early
in the spring. Brophy is at 4:15 and 1:55, both fantastic times and times I
think he can better, but not quite in the Springer range yet.
Most
importantly, I just don’t know if the right race is coming for Brophy. I don’t
see him as a guy who would go to the front and grind it out to chase a record
and I’m not sure that’s how he does his best running. He’s just a fighter who
hangs tough and then unleashes his kick. Keep in mind at Penn Relays, he fell
out of it a bit during the late middle stages of the race before storming back with
a crazy kick to earn 3rd place honors. When Springer set the record,
Craig Forys, one of the best prep 2 milers ever from NJ, came to Henderson and provided the lift no
one else possibly could have to get Springer over the hump. Then at Nats,
basically double it with Centro, Forys, Luke Puskedra etc. being involved.
Talent
is only a piece of the puzzle. They say luck is when preparation meets
opportunity, well Brophy is certainly prepared to chase the state record within
the next 13 months, but to me, it’s a matter of opportunity.
In
the mean time, let’s enjoy a fantastic stretch of running by Jake and let’s see
if he can complete this excellent year with a win at states against a stacked
field of hungry competitors. Keep in mind the last 2 men to go sub 9 prior to
the state meet, Paul Springer and Tony Russell, both got out kicked the final
100m and ended up losing the state championship. Just sayin’.
[1] The
top 50 in each event can be seen on the blog
[2] Because
it’s what I do really
[3]
Although last year, they came out of nowhere for me so I can’t say anything with
confidence
[4] I’m
sorry for the spelling, we are going to need a nickname for you …
[5] I
got obliterated in the comment section for this on a regular basis, but I only
cried for 45 minutes
[6] If
I was him I would have done absolutely 0 running. Wrestling is a handful enough
in itself and he’s just a freshman in high school. No reason not to enjoy some
time off.
[7] To
be fair, Josh couldn’t run in that PIAA race so it was practically impossible
for him to be in a situation to top that moment short of beating Ritz
[8]
And I think we have one or two readers on here from that league with something
to say about that …
[9]
Not to toot my own horn when I don’t have it explicitly in writing, but with
Peretta you could just feel it coming in that mile
[10]
Converted from Springer’s full 2 mile which I think was in the high 8:52s. I
think Henderson was also a touch faster than Nationals, but he has two marks
down well under 9
[11]
He won states outdoors in 9:01 as a Junior, his only outdoor/xc state gold in
his entire career which is amazing considering his 14:47/8:49/4:08 PRs
[12] I
feel this is an unlikely future for Brophy. He strikes me as a guy who is fine
finishing his season in May and resting up for XC. He probably wasn’t even
going to do Footlocker this fall until he smashed that course record and practically
had an obligation to us fans to throw his hat in the ring.
The Penn Relays Mailbag
By etrain11
"Etrain, you completely dodged the individual predictions this week! I can't let you get away with that, who you got this Friday night?" - train e
Alright, fair enough loyal reader. I'll give this my best shot. For the record, I think Ritz will be the top PA miler. I'm almost positive. As for a time, that's a bit trickier. It's hard to imagine him running much slower than 4:12ish considering his recent races, but if things turn tactical, it's in certainly in play. I'm also a bit concerned that if the race is too bunched, he may be a bit uncomfortable in the pack. He does his best running when it's fast and he can stretch out a bit.
All that being said, I'm thinking this race is a fast one and so I'm going to pick to run 4:10 which would be the fastest PA mark in a long time (Spooner in 04 maybe?).
As for the 3k, this is another tricky pick. I tend to be off on my predictions for this event each year. It's important to remember that, while it may be spring, it's still fairly early in the season and these guys are aiming to peak for the end of May. So often times the guys I've thought would assert their dominance during this meet in the past (Ross Wilson 2014, Ben Furcht 2009, etc) aren't always the ones who come with gold. But then there are also cases like Mark Dennin in 2008 where just the opposite is true. Off the top of my head the top PA runner at Penn in the 3k hasn't ended up winning the state title at the end of the year since 2008 when Dennin did it.
My gut says that Mall Cop Kevin James is taking this one. It seems like he is in great shape (big PR at 800m after indoor PRs in all his main events) and there's a little bit of extra pressure to get it done now that his team decided to pass up the DMR. That could be good pressure or bad pressure I suppose, but I think KJ will respond.
Hockenbury is another guy who could certainly win it for PA. He established himself nicely in the speed department with his 4:20 last weekend and is hungry for another shot at the 3k after indoors. This race probably equates closest to the Yale Invite in terms of crowds and talent: that's a race that Hock ran superbly in this indoors. Plus you add in some Dom Deluca comparisons and boom, you have a strong case for Hock.
Brophy is another guy I could see taking the W. He and KJ had an epic dual at CRN and he will be looking to flip the script on that finish this go round. Brophy, by PR, is one of the slower names in the field but it's hard to count him out after watching him set the Hershey course ablaze this XC season. There will be at least one race this year where he tears up the track and obliterates his PR. Maybe this is it?
Of course Brophy may be running the 4x8 earlier that day which leaves the door open for my pick: Casey Comber. Kids due for a moment and he does his best racing against out of state fields and Jake Brophy. He's gotta make sure he doesn't fall asleep in the middle of the race or fall victim to any sudden surges, but I think if he's in it at 800m to go, he can earn top honors for PA.
"Who loves Craig Lutz the most?" - Sean
For those of you who don't know, Craig Lutz came across the blog in a Google search, found a couple Zat posts and tweeted about it. Considering that Zat was on the critical side of things, I was surprised to see that Lutz still called the blog "pretty solid".
My goal for Penn Relays weekend is to get the man a shirt. I may even cut off the sleeves ahead of time for him. Meanwhile Zat owes him a burrito and Fox has odd, inexplainable resentment so they are out. Caleb is rooting for him and Evan was mildly aroused. Sean was willing to personally buy the shirt for him.
Tough call, I'll let the readers pick this one.
"Train, saw your Jenkins and Ches post. Way to try and write an NCAA post as soon as an out of state NCAA runner finds the blog. Using your newfound knowledge, what do you think will happen with Oregon this weekend at Penn?" - Rett Lix
As many of you probably know, I'm a huge fan of the ducks. I own a singlet, sweatshirt, hat, other sweatshirt, t-shirt and long sleeve shirt rapping the U of O. So naturally I'm pumped to see them race for the first time since 2010 when I was at Penn and they went for the triple (and would have gotten it if it wasn't for the stud work of Robby Andrews). That year Oregon was stacked as well (is there a year they aren't?) and the big talk going in surrounded their 4xMile and if they would chase the 16 minute mark for an average of sub 4 for 4 legs, something no college team has ever done. When I got Andrew Wheating's autograph after the DMR on Friday, I asked him if we would witness sub 16 on Saturday and he just sort of laughed and avoided the question.
That's because Wheating (a 3:30 1500m when all was said and done) didn't end up on the 4xMile. They didn't need him to win that relay (they had future NCAA champs Mac Fleet and Matt Centrowitz) and they wanted the sweep. So a sub 16 shot was gone, especially once things turned tactical.
But this year is different, because this year they aren't going for the sweep. They don't have a 4x8 entered and the 4xMile is loaded. Think about it: Geogehan, Jenkins, Cheserek and Gregorek? Plus Winn, Elkiam, Alexander, Praekel and probably a ton of other dudes I'm forgetting with sub 4 credentials. Note: Winn is in the open mile which more than likely means they will be completely stacking that 4xMile considering Winn is an NCAA qualifier.
If things get too tactical early, record attempts are out the window, but if things stay honest ... Look out. Georgetown had a killer set of milers indoors and they will be in this field hopefully thinking they can chase sub 16. Throw in Nova and Stanford and you have a potentially one of a kind set up.
And for the record, Ches is a beast and has fantastic burst, but I honestly think Jenkins time is coming. Don't be surprised if he steals the show this weekend with a huge leg somewhere on the 4xMile.
"What relay will PA place higher in: the DMR or the 4x8?" - I'm out of creative names, it's still me guys
This is another tough question. You guys are really working hard on making this tricky for me. PA is ranked much higher in the 4x8 and we also just have more teams involved in that relay than the DMR so from a probability stand point it makes sense. I think Pennsbury is also PAs best relay squad and DT West is PA's highest upside squad.
But I'm going DMR here. This event tends to be flukey and historically speaking PA has really delivered in this event. The last time I was at Penn in 2010, a bunch of the favorites sort of flamed out and suddenly Our Lady of Good Counsel was pulling the upset. In 2009, our Upper Dublin squad somehow pulled out a win over the Rosa twins and West Windsor. In 2011,CB South almost topped the heavily favored boys from CBA. I've got a feeling that some PA team has a huge day in the DMR. Don't ask me which one because I have no idea, but one of those teams is gonna surprise.
And when Penncrest wins the COA remember that, as usual, I'm always wrong.
Seems like an appropriate note to end on. Stay classy kids.
-train
The First Mailbag is Here
Thank you to everyone who contributed to this inaugural mailbag! There were some excellent questions raised this week and I will do my best to give some insightful responses. Let's get it started.
In cases where names weren't provided, I made them up.
"Mudiay or Russell?" - Sam Hinkie
Great question Sam. I know people don't exactly read this blog for basketball insights, but since its still my favorite sport on the market, I'm going to go all out on this one in a somewhat long winded roundabout way.
Let's say the Sixers get pick #1 in the draft and can take anyone my dad is of the opinion you take Okafor (in his opinion the best player) and you figure out the rest later. It goes with the theme of acquiring assets certainly. But I think really why you do it is, you need a star to build your team around. That's the point of all this tanking, to get a star. We don't know if we have one yet, so if Okafor is the best bet you have for getting a super star, you take him.
I'm not really on board with that plan, personally because (perhaps foolishly) I'm tired of waiting around and I'm ready to start putting pieces together. If I'm picking, I'm actually in favor of taking Justise Winslow all else equal. I like his defensive ability, he has good size and strength and he seems to be developing as a scorer. Plus he played on a championship team this year and I like players who know how to win (although in the championship game it was basically Tyus Jones). Besides the Duke championship, he has multiple gold medals playing the USA junior squads. I've recently heard Winslow compared to Grant Hill, Ron Artest, Oladipo, James Harden and Coach K compared him to Dwayne Wade. That's high praise. 100% my guy.
Plus think of the puns!
I think Russell could be good, but I'm not completely sold on him (but to be fair I wasn't completely sold on Wiggins). The potential is there and the scoring potential is fantastic for a team that needs scoring. But I think I'd rather have Mudiay (even though I've never seen him actually play basketball). He's more athletic and explosive than Russell and I think his game translates a bit better to the NBA. He can contribute in a variety of ways and, if they can get his shooting going, he would be a great point guard to lead the team. I honestly also believe that Mudiay is the guy the Sixers will draft, especially if they are picking in the post Okafor/Towns 3 spot.
What I would love to see happen (that probably never would), you throw a ton of money at Khawi Leonard and see if you can steal him. I'd also try and go after Jimmy Butler. The cap is about to shoot up, so why not overspend a little bit and try and get a young up and coming player who can play both ways and possibly be the leagues next stud. Then you draft Mudiay or Winslow or Russell, get Embiid back, the developing Noel and still have a TON of future picks to use to continue to build or trade for players if the team begins to get competitive.
But they will probably just trade the pick for more picks and Miles Plumlee.
"Odds that Pennsbury loses the 4x8 at states?" - CR North and Bensalem haters (just kidding of course)
You can attack this one from two angles. First, you look at Pennsbury's roster and examine its potential. I really like the squad. They have the basic essentials of a championship 4x8 team: great depth (I could see at least 5 dudes sub 2), a stud anchor (Sauer has run 1:52 3 times already within the last 300 or days), and experience (Webb and Sauer have been on their last 2 state medal squads, with Sauer anchoring both. Plus they won indoor states this year so that's nice experience). I'm also intrigued by Kersten as an X factor looking forward.
The possible problems revolve around the fact that PB's two key legs (Webb and Sauer) are going to be key players in individual battles and states. Webb is going to be trying the 3200m-4x8 and that double is brutal. That being said, Webb has owned that double the last two years and Sauer made that double last year too, it didn't effect his 1:52.9 anchor.
The other angle is, who can beat them? A lot of teams loaded up completely fresh squads indoors to try and beat PB and they still couldn't do it (Penncrest, SC, CBW, LaSalle). I'm not sure which one of those teams is taking a step forward and becoming better than the Orangemen. There are a few times with upside (Carlisle, Seneca Valley, Altoona) who never really went all in on relays indoors but have some excellent pieces. The team that may have the best shot at dethroning the champs is Downingtown West. IF they are healthy and willing to focus on the relay. I'm not sure they are speed oriented enough, but they could have 4 sub 2 guys when the dust clears in May including a couple sub 4:20 guys and a dude who finished in the top 10 at the state championships.
Current Odds on Pennsbury losing: 10 to 1.
"Altoona or State College at districts this year?" - 6 Man
Altoona and State College is kind of an underrated rivalry. The two teams are powerhouses in their own right and share a district almost to themselves. They only have one XC team spot which makes the team title even more intriguing in the fall, but in the spring the District 6 title is always fun, adding sprinting and field events to the mix while also putting some pressure on the distance boys to throw down monstrous triples/quadruples.
I won't pretend to have any sort of intimate knowledge of the sprint/field dynamic of the title chase, but I'll give my best attempt at talking distance. Last year the final score was SC 238 and Altoona 206. When you factor in the graduation of Post, Cather (won 3 golds), Adams and Golembski (who's name I just butchered and I sincerely apologize for that), SCs hopes will likely be hanging in the balance of their distance squads ability to fill the shows of their departed seniors.
SC is a bit younger I believe which could hurt them if they are trying to get fancy with doubling. Foust appeared indoors like he had taken a strong step towards elite status and that could mean a change of fate to the tune of the Cather multiple gold level. SC has consistently churned out strong 4x8s (especially at states where they have been in the medals a ton), but Altoona has always managed to give them a run for their money at districts (it seems like 99% of the time Altoona's season best relay comes at districts). There's strong mid-distance depth on both sides, the most intriguing race may end up being a 3200m where Sunderland and Stroh (both really strong runners) would have to go toe to toe with Beyerle who was second last year in an awesome race.
In the end, things may be decided in the 800m when George and Foust try to take down the army that State College has displayed for the last two seasons. When so much doubling and tripling is in play, I give the slight edge to the older guys from Toona, but SC is going to make it one heck of a battle.
"What do yo think the likelihood is that any of the 800/1600/3200 state records go down this year?" - Record Ralph
Now technically speaking there are multiple terms that people define as "state records". There are state meet records and all-time pa records. There is logically some overlap, but I think it's obvious the records that matter most are the All Time marks. But for the fun of the question, let's take a look at all of them in order of least likely to most likely:
4x800m AT and AAA State Meet: CB South 7:33.48 2009
This record is a really impressive one and it took A) maybe the best 800m runner in PA history, B) the greatest 4x8 field ever assembled in PA history, C) a team entirely dedicated to the state record in the 4x8 and only the state record in the 4x8. Plus it takes 4 special talents and not just one. I don't plan on seeing this record falling any time soon.
3200m AT: Paul Springer, Unionville 8:49.68e 2007
1600m AT and AA State Meet: Paul Vandegrift, Archbishop Kennedy 4:03.22 1987
These two are basically tied, but I rate the 3200m slightly less likely to fall. Springer had Craig Forys the first time, then went to nationals and had another idea race for his second sub 8:50. No one else in PA has been within 5 seconds of that mark since he ran it, despite the fact that we have had some of the best XC talents we've ever seen.
The 16 likely isn't falling either (especially unlikely for the AA state meet record to fall), but at least I could see a situation where Ritz or someone does it in peak shape at the Dream Mile/MoC/Nationals. There's post season meets where people can and will chase the mile record, not sure the same thing can be said about the 32.
1600m AAA State Meet: Drew Magaha Upper Moreland 4:07.32 2011
This would take a magical run from someone, but I'd rate it marginally more possible than the all time marks above simply because it's slower and the guy who is the defending champ has a PR pretty close to it from about 2 years ago.
4x800m AA State Meet: Lewisburg 7:44.44 2004
This time isn't particularly fast so there's a chance a AA team could pop up and steal in between now and the state meet but A) I have no idea who that team could possibly be and B) I'm not seeing any 1:51 solo anchor legs like Chris Spooner was back then. But 7:44 isn't bananas at least and I certainly didn't see Dom Perretta emerging as a 1:52.7 guy last year so why can't another similar guy come out of the woodwork?
Plus 7:44.44 in 04? This record can only live forever.
3200m AA State Meet: Chris Dugan Southmoreland 9:04.09 1997
3200m AAA State Meet: Ross Wilson CR North 8:56.29 2014
This was another toss up. The 3200m mark is 8 seconds slower for AA, but the field is projected to be less deep. The AAA record was just broken last year, so it's not like the thing is impossible and we have a stacked field set to toe the line again. I could see Hock and Molino maybe pushing the way towards 9:04, but that's a really fast mark that only 25 or so dudes have done in PA history. The AAA field is marginally more likely to do it, but there is a reason that old record lasted so long. You need the right mix of weather, tactics and talent. But PA may have it this year.
You know what that leaves? The 800m. Maybe it's because of the onslaught on indoor records or the pair of outdoor "records" or the fact that I can't stand that Magaha's record is the undisputed record even though Grift ran 1:48.8 as well (I know it was hand time, but technically we don't KNOW that it would have been slower FAT we just highly suspect it. Remember 1:48.8h is probably rounded up from like 1:48.7 and change and Magaha's coach happened to stop his watch at 1:48.82 exactly by coincidence meaning that hand times and FAT times can potentially line up.
So basically I'm kinda hoping that Lewis or someone just blasts a 1:48.5 and we are done with it.
Here's how I'd order those 800m records that are left:
800m AA State Meet: Paul Vandegrift 1:51.96 Archbishop Kennedy 1987
800m AAA State Meet: Tom Mallon CB South 1:49.31 2010
800m PA AT: Drew Magaha Upper Moreland 1:48.82 2012
The AA Meet Record is the slowest and a fresh, motivated Perretta could be a 1:51.96 guy. That being said, 1:51 is fast and having some company would be nice. Not sure I see another 1:52 type guy in AA as things currently stand.
The AAA meet record should certainly be on watch. Throw Lewis, Graca, Sauer, Brehm, Wisner, Samuels, etc in a race together and all they need to do is hit about a second faster than they did indoors? Sounds pretty good! But Francis didn't do it last year after setting the record indoors, we didn't get anywhere close in 2013 even though it was a fantastic field and even peak Magaha couldn't get close. The message here: it's just one meet and you need things to click in a lot of ways. Who knows what all these guys racing schedules will be (but I'm guessing busy). It took a focused Mallon who had already run under 1:50 3x prior to the meet to get it.
Which brings me to the overall state record. You can get this at any meet, with any competition (i.e. Add Ritz or a rabbit) and fresh legs. Plus Magaha's record came a random night in early spring with almost no one close by right after he had mono! That speaks to how absurdly talented Magaha was, but it also means he himself could have probably broken that record, so why can't a health focused group of some of PA's all time best?
"Does Lil Hoey get the 4:14 national record? If so, by how much?" - West Side Reppin
Since we are talking records already, let's crunch a bit more numbers. First, it's important to note that the national frosh record no longer belongs to Craig Miller (I think I failed to clarify this in my previous post). In 2013 Minnesota frosh Eli Krahn ran 8:58 and then doubled back the next day to run 4:09.38. I'm 100% serious.
As for Craig Miller's PA frosh 1600m record (which I guess is a thing?) that's certainly in play. Craig Miller didn't break 4:20 for the first time until league season roughly 2 weeks out from states. Josh just did it for the second time before we hit real spring (counting his indoor DMR split). 4:19.97 for the mile coverts to roughly 4:18.5 for 1600m, meaning to get to Miller's 4:14.26, Hoey needs an extra 4 and a quarter seconds in about 8 weeks. It's very doable. I think it mainly comes down to how his 1600m goals line up with the teams potential relay prowess (future 4x8 contenders and one of PAs best teams for Penn in the DMR on paper). If he runs the 1600m in the state final like Craig, the record chase is on.
You've Got Mail
So thanks to my bizarre fascination with all things Grantland, I've been interested in duplicating a few ideas from that blog for this one. We've had some podcasts (I haven't given up on those, just haven't been able to locate logical time windows for guests recently), we've had some shoot around style posts with multiple writers, and at Penn Relays in a few weeks I'll be on the hunt for the best coverage video and interview coverage possible.
But in the mean time, I'm hoping to steal another idea from Grantland that hopefully people will be interested in getting involved with. The idea is called: The Mailbag. And it is basically what it sounds like.
Here's how this works for those who have not seen it before. On Grantland, people send in emails to Bill Simmons and the emails are usually thought provoking questions, comical takes on a situation, a combination of the two. There also theories, ideas, predictions thrown in there. Bill picks his favorites, puts them together in an article and discusses the ideas. I think it's a cool way to not only create more interesting discussion than I could create on my own, but it also gives the readers another chance to see what they want up here on the blog.
So, as usual, here's the ways you can get in contact with me to spread your thoughts (p.s. Anonymity is not only acceptable, but it's encouraged, especially if you have a clever fake name):
Email at jarrettfelix1130@gmail.com
Tweet @jfetrain11 or message me on Twitter
Facebook message me Jarrett Felix
Comment in the Playground Section
Mailbag for my other writers is also encouraged so if you have questions for any of them I will pass along if there isn't a way to get in touch with them directly.
Let me know what you guys think. If/when I get no material because as usual I'm overexcited about an ordinary idea, I'll be doing fake mailbags where I make up my own pieces of mail and answer my own made up questions.
Here we go with sample mailbag #1!
"Remember back when you used to do odds makers? If you started that back up and were forced to make odds for sub 9 3200m runners this spring, what would you say?"
- not etrain
Ah this is a very tricky question and, ironically, something I've addressed in a few posts now. It's kind of a tough question to answer because, as I think I've pointed out, it takes more than talent and skill to break 9 minutes, it also takes a bit of luck and timing. You need to get in the right race. So basically, anyone who is chasing the time at Henderson this year on 5/1 ups their odds (and possibly same could be said for anyone competing at Baldwin). Then of course the winner of states COULD do it, but the weather and strategy would need to play out appropriately (happened in 2014 so you never know, but rarely happened before that).
Basically my best odds is on a healthy Sam Ritz if he goes to Henderson and does it, but even he is a long shot (who knows what his plan of attack is the rest of the way, but I imagine it includes mainly miles). After that I think Kev James is most equipt for the record, but it would have to be states for him I believe based on their schedule. Same goes for Brophy. Webb may run Henderson, will get to run PIAA states (maybe? What's the Pennsbury plan?) and is rapidly improving. He should have good odds as well.
Long shots for a variety of different reasons would be Jax Hoey, McGoey, Comber, Hockenbury, Marston and Molino (you could talk me into throwing Dahl or McDevitt or Geb on there too, but they aren't PIAA which cuts out a shot).
I'd go Ritz 4:1, James 6:1, Brophy 8:1, Webb 10:1 and anybody else 20:1. Those could change in a few weeks but that's where I'm at now. My guess is no one does it, but I've been wrong before. Speaking of which ...
"Is it possible RJJL is actually just you from the future and that's why he has remained completely anonymous all these years whole also destroying it in predictions and just overall making your blog a better place?"
- Mike Krzyzewski
First off, I appreciate the effort you took to type out Coach K's actual name. I can only imagine how difficult that was for you. As for your question, as awesome as that would be, there's no way I could predict that well, even if I was from the future. Have you seen my recent work? Did you see the NCAA predictions?
"There are 4 sub 10:30 DMRs not counting Malvern Prep, CB East, and Pennsbury. What if all those teams load up for Penn Relays? Would it be the most PA teams ever in the event?"
- Darren Moses Reilly
The DMR is awesome right now. I think PA has sent around 4 teams in the same race before, but not any more than that (4 I know has happened, and it's happened more than once). The crazy thing is I truly feel Malvern Prep, CB East and especially Pennsbury could crack 10:30 if they really went for it (and got the weather for it). And that would make 7 squads. Then throw in the possibilities of Bonner, CB West, Altoona and Carlisle (among others) and you have an intriguing crop of potential suitors for other sub 10:30 spots. But some of these squads will definitely opt for 4x8 (I hope not in Pennsbury's case but it's likely for them CB East, LaSalle and CB West at the very least). My guess is Stoga, GFS, DT West, O'Hara and maybe Malvern Prep get in and decide to run, which would be 5 which would be killer. Plus qualifying period closes next weekend? So that probably takes a few teams out.
Edit: and it looks like James and Marston (plus Brophy) are among the 3k competitors (an event that immediately follows the DMRs). So that likely takes out two of PAs biggest threats right there ...
Could any of those teams win? Who has best odds? Eh that wasn't the question so I'll save it for another fake mailbag.
"It's never too early for XC predictions right? If you had to do a top 10 rankings right now or those guys that kidnapped Forrest would kidnap you, who would you have?"
- that kid from the playground
Oh goodness, it's definitely too early, how could you ask such a crazy question. There's no way I've done the research for this and I'll almost definitely miss someone, but I'd crop it out like this.
Sure things
Brophy and Hockenbury
Need to see some track
Ryan James, Henderson, Mackey (could be very interesting), DiCintio
Gonna be in the top 10, just a matter of where
Sappey, Loevner, Dahl
Perhaps irrational confidence in one runner
Perretta
Hey that's 10 isn't it? Sweet! If I'm looking down the line for some other names that could jump out in the next month or two I'm thinking ...
Josh Hoey, Matt Wisner, Jaxson Hoey (just needs to be healthy and he's definitely top 10), Smucker, Kolor, Murray, Skolonevich, and probably a ton of other dudes
It's still too early!
"You mentioned a super DMR in that post shortly before the t-shirts and the @dad_hat posts, who would you say has the best super DMR if you combined all the runners who have been running during your time as a blogger from each team? What about DMR? 4x8? More?"
- Definitely not etrain
Ah thank you for giving me a perfect set up while also advertising multiple key things and our official sponsors dadhat.
As for the answer to your question, tune in this summer and this question will be answered in intense detail. Next year starts a decade of work and I've got some projects in mind.
Did I just use my own fake mailbag to plug my own secret plans for this summer/my sub 9 post from earlier/my future top 50 XC rankings and the Penn Relays discussion that is inevitably coming in the next few weeks?
Yeah.
Is that kinda lame?
... Yeah.
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