2017 Indoor State Predictions

Mile
800m
3,000m
4x800m
DMR

2017 Indoor State Predictions: DMR

DMR

Heat 1 (Etrain Projected Line-Ups)

Carlisle – Sam Affolder, Jared Griffie, Isaac Kole, Noah Affolder

Germantown Friends – Colin Riley, Eli Schwemler, Jonnie Plass, Nick Dahl

Cardinal O’Hara – Gavin Inglis, Obinna Iherjirka, Patrick James, Ryan James

CB West – Ben Bunch, Carter Laatsch, Alec Hofer, Brian Mass

CR North – Bryan Keller, Mike Welde, Sam Early, Ryan Campbell

WC Henderson – Jack Downing, Myles Cooper, Josh Richard, Spencer Smucker

State College – Nick Feffer, Joey Feffer, Chris DiPerna, Owen Wing

LaSalle – Brendan Price, Peter Nelson, Mac Costinis, Evan Addison

Lower Merion – Theodore Neckowicz, Romaine Rhoden, Diarmid Rae, Matt D’Aquila

DT West – Ryan Barton, Jared McIntire, Chase Seymanyk, Shaun Bullock

WC Rustin – Edward Harpstead, Vincent Giordano, Billy Covert, Brandon Hontz

Cheltenham – Andrew Crosby, Darren Giles, Asad Grant, Will Griffen

Again, similar to the 4x8, these are only my projected line ups. I’m just working off gut instincts and milesplit times so don’t take those line ups as fact.

People have been getting on me about looking for other teams that can steal this title from Carlisle. But, hey, I think it’s in play. If GFS went completely fresh for this relay, I’d feel really good about picking them to win against a tired Carlisle team. They could be seeing Noah on his 4^th race of that night on that anchor leg and a fresh Dahl could run 4:10 or faster to make Noah work very, very hard. But GFS will have the 4x8 in their legs so that makes things tougher.

I think O’Hara will go fresh for this relay, but they are entered in the 4x8 so no guarantees they actually will. If they go fresh, this team is a very realistic threat for a three-peat against some other tired teams. Especially if Gavin Inglis proves he can pick up where livestream poster boy Rob Morro left off in the 1200 position.

But Carlisle’s biggest competition may come from the team that gave them trouble during cross country: Council Rock North. I think Bryan Keller is a near perfect 1200 leg. I think he could have a really impressive showing. They have one of the best 400 runners in the entire state in Welde. Early can run under 2 minutes and then Ryan Campbell could be this year’s Ryan James and bring home the surprise title. It would take a lead, but there’s a reasonable set of events to get them that lead going into the anchor leg.

LaSalle has a ton of talent, plus an anchor leg with serious chops. If LaSalle gets Evan Addison the baton with a chance for a rematch against a tired Affolder (either one), maybe he is able to turn the tables on the superstar. Along with LaSalle, WC Henderson is one of the most successful DMR programs in the state’s history and they will put out an experienced line-up that medaled last year.  

I really like WC Rustin’s team. They’ve won their last two heats going away with big anchor legs from Hontz. Put them in a race with ideal competition and give Hontz a chance to chase or, at least, run with competition, and they could have a massive season best performance. They will have the added incentive of taking on DT West and WC Henderson, the two teams that made it to states in XC after Rustin bested them at Ches-monts.

Not sure what State College will have in the tank. They’ve got the talent and either Feffer or Wing would be a strong 1200 runner to set this team up well. But I think their focus will be on the 4x8 with the DMR as more of a “bonus” so I’m not sure I see them as true title contenders. Unless they have a heartbreaking result in the 4x8 and find a little extra fire. Then it’s game on in front of the hometown crowd.

Predictions

At the end of a long, mentally and physically exhausting meet, I like teams that have fresh, focused legs. If Carlisle runs all their guys in the 4x8, the open events they are entered in and then the DMR and then wins the DMR? It will be the most impressive set of racing I’ve ever seen. This relay will determine if the Affolders are human or not basically. We found out Brehm was, in fact, not a robot two years ago at outdoor states. But Noah and Sam may have fixed the glitches.

I’m looking at teams like Lower Merion (like this squad a lot with a team centric mentality), DT West, CR North, and Henderson for strong medal spots. Then I kind of fill in based on projected anchor legs. A lot of the DMR comes down to the anchor certainly, but you need other guys to set it up. Especially if your anchor is already feeling tired and isn’t motivated to go out on a herculean chase.

One of our commenters brought up a good point about Carlisle’s relay. They may anchor Sam and put Noah on the lead off to try and make his busy schedule a bit more manageable. Sam should have a decent amount more in the tank than Noah, especially if he isn’t on the 4x8. And honestly, they could go with Kole-Wisner-either Affolder and potentially win this thing. That makes them hard to pick against.

As you guys probably know by now, I like to have fun with predictions. It’s just who I am. So I’m not going to sit back and let my last set of predictions be predictable. Of course, if you’ve been reading my posts this year you probably did, in fact, predict this was coming.

1.      Germantown Friends 10:19.42

2.      CR North 10:21.49

3.      Carlisle 10:22.90

4.      O’Hara 10:24.13

5.      LaSalle 10:30.09

6.      WC Rustin 10:34.67

7.      WC Henderson 10:35.81

8.      Lower Merion 10:36.45

State Championship Recap: AAA Boys

by Jarrett Felix

AAA State Championship Recap

The Race

Carlisle tends to take a conservative approach in the early stages of a race and the District 3 champs were in 8^th place at the mile mark as a result. Of course, their top runner, Noah Affolder, the state title favorite, was out fast enough to be at the front of the field a mile in with his brother Sam not too far behind. The top group was about 4:53 at the mile with Noah, Nate Henderson, Rusty Kujdcych, Mark Provenzo and Connor McMenamin leading the charge. Some 30 plus runners were out under 5 minutes in this race.

Of that 30 plus number, many were wearing CR North uniforms as the district one champs had four guys under 5. Also running well through the mile was LaSalle who was in second place with 113 points. The WPIAL champions from Seneca Valley were all the way back in 13^th and were easily the farthest back of the top ranked teams in the state.

By two miles, Carlisle was beginning to surge back to the front of the standings. With Affolder firmly controlling the race from the front, the Herd came thundering forward with Isaac Kole and Jack Wisner making big moves up the field. Carlisle was in 4^th, about 26 points from second but 69 from the lead. The defending state champions, Downingtown West, hung tough in the silver medal spot, show casing a solid pack on the hills.

Individually, Affolder looked to be in control, but JP McCaskey’s Nate Henderson hung tight on his shoulder. Those two had nearly a 10 second advantage on everyone else. The top two spots seemed set, but the race was wide open after that. Noah Beveridge and Ryan James moved up to join the chase pack with Sam Affolder and Zach Lefever also in the mix.

At the finish, Noah rolled down the home straightaway and clocked the fastest time of the day with a 15:33. Behind him, Nate Henderson held on tight for second after giving everything he had to push himself alongside Noah. Sam Affolder was coming hard, throwing down a big kick, trying to give Carlisle a historic 1-2 finish, but coming up just 2 seconds short. The Affolders 1-3 run was eerily similar to the Hoeys run from a year earlier when they took 2-3.

I really respect the season Nate had. He was throwing down some terrific times each week and in most years would have been the state champion. But do to random circumstance, the Affolders came to town, a pair of unique, once in generation type talents and his favorite status was poached not just in the state, but within his district. A lot of people would have let that get to them mentally and maybe started to lose focus or enthusiasm, but Nate continued to excel and finished the meet with his best ever state finish (any season). Hopefully, he’s got something extra left in the tank for Footlocker Regionals.

It was a big day for District 3. After the Affolder-Henderson-Affolder stuff was sorted out, Zach Lefever of Ephrata won a three way kickers battle to sweep the top 4 spots for D3. Junior Noah Beveridge, much like Nate Henderson a year ago, was the top junior in the race after grabbing the middle spot in a kickers battle. We knew odds were good there would be a District 7 runner in the top 5 overall, but I think the general consensus was that would be the experienced senior Mark Provenzo (who had a great race of his own in 9^th), but Beveridge stepped up and grabbed the top WPIAL spot with a sub 16 mark on the new lay out. Keep in mind that Beveridge was 7^th at his first race of the season (McDowell) and 6^th at his second (RWB). He ends (?) his season with a 5^th place finish at states. Pretty cool.

Connor McMenamin finished as the top district one finisher in 6^th overall in a fantastic story of redemption. He had been in medal position at two miles each of the past two seasons but had struggled to finish the job. This year, healthy, strong and experienced, Connor held on valiantly with an awesome run.

Lots of other cool stories in this race including a couple big performances from guys who were in the background at districts. Jake O’Neill continues to find magic on the Hershey hills. He runs this course phenomenally and picked the right time to become West’s #1 runner with a 17^th place finish at states. Nick Norton of Hempfield barely even qualified for the state championships, but he made the most of his opportunity with a 19^th place finish and a state medal.

I loved see Amadou Diallo of Allerdice get on the medal stand as well. He finished 21^st in this race which, I believe is the best finish by District 8 at the state meet in the past decade plus, passing Ean DiSilvio, a super talented cross guy who is killing it at PSU as of late. Zach Case of Hampton was an interesting name to note as well. Case would have missed the state meet entirely if Mars’s freshman Zachary Leachman didn’t pull out. But Case pounced on the opportunity and raced to 39^th overall in the state championships. That was an impressive race that I definitely didn’t see coming and a classic example of seizing the opportunity.

Although we were all hoping for a crazy battle for the state championship, the top two teams really ended up asserting themselves pretty clearly in this one. CR North posted a big win with five top 50 finishers, and almost 4 medalists as their 3-4 punch essentially tied for the last state medal. North will now look to qualify for the national championships out West. They left no doubt about their ability to race the hills and officially silenced anyone who had dropped the “overrated” line on them earlier this season on the blog.

Carlisle finished 40 points ahead of 3^rd place and 42 behind 2^nd, putting them in their own tier. There’s not much to be disappointed with if you’re a member of the Carlisle team. Jack Wisner had an absolutely monster race. He finished 33^rd overall in an awesome performance, consistently moving up through the field. That solidified the team’s top 4 group as they also finished with 3 medalists. I thought Max Fiorentino had a strong race as the team’s #5, but unfortunately he would have needed to run a massive PR for this team to keep pace with CRN. Think of it this way, if Fiorentino ran roughly 20 seconds faster, it still would have taken a 1-2-3-4 finish in team standings for Carlisle to beat CRN. All the same, the Herd made a big statement for District 3. They performed well at every meet they traveled to and they had the best D3 finish at a state meet since 2005.

If you were looking for craziness, then you probably liked the battle for the remaining top 10 spots. Some teams definitely had some bad luck, perhaps most notably Mechanicsburg whose projected #2 runner Alex Tomasko ran with what appeared to be a nail in his foot the whole race. Although he finished farther back than hoped, you have to really respect Tomasko’s will to push through this misfortune and finish the race. He helped Mechanicsburg finish 11^th in the state, just two points off 10^th. It looks like Lower Dauphin’s Mark Walsh, the freshman sensation who had been a big part of their climb to states, didn’t race. Hope he is OK.

And how about LaSalle? They had an unfortunate DNF from one of their top guys and Stephen Paul, who had been a top 2 guy on the team in the early season, had a rare off day, but the Explorers still managed to take 5^th in the state, just 2 points away from 4^th. That just speaks again to the depth of this team. How many of the top programs realistically could have survived the state course without their top 2 runners having strong performances?

The WPIAL champions, Seneca Valley, survived all the let down potential from their big win at districts and finished 4^th in the state. Literally no one picked them higher than 5^th place and they spent the majority of the season struggling to just crack the top 10 on most people’s state team rankings. But at the end of the day they are WPIAL champions with a 4^th place finish at states, led by two sophomores who both notched top 40 finishes. Their lone senior, Trey Razanauskas, helped lead SV to a historic year and, with everyone else coming back next year, perhaps the beginning of something great.

Lastly, big shout out to State College. Nick Feffer grabs a second straight medal, but Owen Isham, just as sophomore, crushes this race with a top 50 finish overall. That was huge. The injury to Mitchell Etter could have really brought down the resolve of this team, but everyone stepped up at the right time including #4 Thomas Branstetter and the #5-6 punch of Sam Horn and David Wong. Now we move to track season where Feffer and Owen Wing (strong stretch run to his XC season) will look to lead them back into the 7:40s yet again. The last three years they’ve run 7:41, 7:41 and 7:37.

Quick Thoughts

1.      District One Teams All in the Top 10 … Again. Since the move to three classifications, all 5 district one teams have built a house in the top 10 at states. No matter what happens, they seem to always find a way to get there. This year, I thought it was going to be basically impossible for Henderson or Lower Merion to get in the top 10 and I was worried about CB West as well. But all three teams had awesome days and they took 8^th-9^th-10^th on the Hershey hills. For Henderson, Jack Downing’s return to the line-up was big and he came on just when this team needed him most. Stephen Heck also crushed his last two races of the year. CB West’s Michael Samson stepped up into the #1 runner role (outside the scoring 5 last week) as West ended up in the top 10 even without a top 50 overall finish, speaking to their ability to pack run. And for Lower Merion, D’Aquila led the way with a state medal, but you have to love the racing by Theodore Neckowitz. He finished just outside the top 50 in this race despite the fact that he didn’t even race with the team at Foundation. Great stuff from LM and District One.

2.      That being said, D3 individuals really stepped up. D3 took the first 4 spots overall and, with Noah Beveridge stepping up, D1 didn’t have a top 5 finisher. When’s the last time that happened? But it wasn’t just the big 4. Isaac Kole and Morgan Cupp, who’ve battled all year, finished 13^th and 14^th overall. Junior Jared Giannascoli picked the right time to step into the #1 runner role as he led the team at both districts and states, finished 15^th overall. His teammate Colton Cassell and Hempfield’s Nick Norton also finished in the medals, giving D3 9 state medalists! That matched D1’s total.

3.      Just one sophomore medalist … and he may not even be back next year. Sam Affolder was the only sophomore state medalist and it’s very possible the Affolder family may move again next year, meaning things in the class of 2019 could get real interesting. In fact, after Sam Affolder the next best young runner was freshman Carlos Shultz (29^th in an awesome young gun performance). Seneca Valley had two of the next three sophomores with Sam Owori (30^th) and Seth Ketler (34^th) while Jack Wisner split those with his 33^rd place finish. Freshman Dan McGoey (45^th) of North Allegheny and State College’s Owen Isham (47^th) were other young stand outs who handled the state pressure well.

4.      Where does CRN stack up among the great teams? Do we start talking about this team with the other great squads? They had 4 in the top 26 overall which, if I’m not mistaken, hasn’t been done since Coatesville in 2006 (i.e. the National Champs). We have yet to see how North transitions from states to regionals as they’ve never attended that meet, but they are apparently going to make the trip this year. I’m looking forward to seeing how they continue to bolster their legacy.

5.      Alright, I’m ready to see Noah Affolder get after it for real. And maybe he takes some others with him. With all due respect to the state of PA (we had some incredible performances this year), I want to see Affolder in the regional and national championships. He’s been openly stating that those are his focus all year and maybe one of those will be the race he loses this year? It’s yet to really be close (Nate Henderson has been his best challenger this year that I’ve seen including the competition at McQuaid and Manhattan). But the logical follow up is who might have a chance to attend Nationals with him? I like to say the best brings out the best, meaning when someone good comes along to train with or race again, it elevates everyone around them because they are trying to beat him (or her). So will Nate Henderson survive Footlocker, running on Noah’s hip? Will Sam Affolder join Noah in San Diego? I hope PA sends a lot of guys to both meets, I think it is great for the state to represent at these big regional meets. That being said, it’s a long season if you go to the end of November and it’s not for everyone.

#DerailTheTrain

As always, I didn’t have a perfect resume for my state championship predictions. I’ve already touched on a lot of the big breakthroughs (the D1 teams, State College, Nick Norton come to mind), but let’s see if I can find a few more upsets. Eric Kersten of Pennsbury finished 18^th overall in this race, showing that his breakthrough at Foundation was no fluke. He becomes Pennsbury’s third different medalist within the last few seasons. David Merkey of Manheim Central had an awesome day. He took 36^th overall and I wasn’t even sure he would be top 2 on his own team. Brett Brady of Butler had a terrific day, cracked the top 50 overall and Cheltenham’s Will Griffen also finished his season on a high note with a 49^th place finish.  

State Championship Recap: AA Boys

by Jarrett Felix

AA State Championship Recap

The Race

The defending state champions from Dallas knew they would have their hands full with York Suburban and Greensburg Salem who defeated them on this very course a few weeks back. But at the mile, their biggest competition came from a few unlikely sources. Holy Ghost Prep was in second place, followed by South Fayette and then Harbor Creek.

The aforementioned Harbor Creek team was out pretty hard, most notably junior Christian Babo. The Harbor Creek harrier missed the 2015 season, but returned to action this year as mainly the squad’s #3 runner. But he was a freshman medalist at states and had confidence in his ability. Through the mile, Babo was the surprise leader in a blazing fast opening mile of 4:50. That set the tone for the race as you had to get out close to five minutes to be up with the medal contenders. Ben Bumgarner of Waynesburg Central and Isaac Davis of Jersey Shore were also through the mile in 4:50 with Zach Skolenkovich, perhaps the pre-race favorite, just one second back in 4:51. In total, 13 runners ran through the first mile in under 5 minutes. All of them held on quite well and finished as state medalists.

By two miles, having really pushed things through the hills, Ben Bumgarner took over the lead and opened up a small advantage. He had about a three second edge on Zach Skolnekovich of Quaker Valley. Isaac Davis was also hanging tough at the front, running just a second back of Skolnekovich. Those three were well clear of the next group that included David Haines of North Pocono as well as teammates Aaron Pfeil and Sam Snodgrass of South Fayette. Those South Fayette boys were leading the WPIAL 3^rd place finishers to an awesome showing through two miles. While Dallas appeared to have the race in hand, South Fayette was in 2^nd place overall, ahead of York Suburban by 7 points.

Over the final mile, Bumgarner not only held his edge, but expanded upon it. He rolled to a 12 second victory, coming off the final hill with a large advantage that caused some of the fans around me to murmur about how impressive it was. Skolnekovich held on well, moving far ahead of Isaac Davis, but not quite being able to catch Bumgarner. Still, Skolnekovich finishes with a second straight silver medal and an incredible cross country career.

Aaron Pfeil and Sam Snodgrass finished 4^th and 6^th for South Fayette with Haines splitting them in 5^th for North Pocono. York Suburban made a hard push over the final mile, trying to close down against Dallas. One of the most notable moves came from Bryce Ohl. He got out conservative, behind a few of his own teammates event, but after a 5:13 first mile, Ohl moved all the way to 8^th overall, helping negate Dallas’s front running advantage by fitting right alongside Jack Zardecki. Tanner Haynes of YS also made a big final surge all the way to 28^th overall.

However, Dallas was able to hold on against the surges. They finished with four runners between 30^th and 37^th which gave them a tight enough spread behind Zardecki to hold off the challengers. Josh Wayndt had a strong bounce back performance to lead this team as the #2 runner. He threw down a strong surge from mile 1 to 2 and nearly finished as a state medalist in his own right after running outside the scoring 5 for Dallas at the district meet.

Major props to South Fayette in this one. They finished in a tough spot, taking 3^rd overall by just six points, but they really impressed me. After taking 3^rd at their district meet, they finished as the WPIAL’s #1 team and held their own against a pair of super powers in Dallas and YS. Silas Mays had a really strong showing alongside Michael Cusick. These guys ran a fearless race. Lots to be proud of for that school.

Harbor Creek took 4^th overall with an impressive 3 state medalists (who all return next year) and 4 runners in the top 34 overall! They were somewhat reminiscent of Carlisle in AAA with that excellent top four. Props to their freshman Nolan Weber for stepping up to finish as the team’s #5 runner in this one and doing his best to hang close enough to help this team place top 4.

Quaker Valley finished off an excellent stretch run to their season, rounding out the top 5. They scored an impressive 180 points and got a big step up performance from Zeke Gonzalez. Jake Smiley also had an awesome showing, nearly breaking into the medals behind Skolnekovich.

Quick Thoughts

1.      Let’s run this back next year. Yes, 4 of the top 5 finishers will graduate this year, however we have a ton of guys coming back for next season. Dallas returns almost everyone from their state championship squad as does second place York Suburban. 15 of the 25 medalists were either juniors or sophomores (20 of the top 30 as well). In total, last year’s terrific freshman class translated to 11 sophomores in the top 50 with 5 sophomore medalists. That’s wild.

2.      Will see Bumgarner v. Skolnekovich Round 3? Sound like Bumgarner is definitely heading to Footlocker Regionals while Skolnekovich (who has yet to extend his season that far) seems on the fence. I’d love to see both guys go out and compete as it’s the closest thing we get to a meet of champs and these two rivals have made the AA class really fun to watch this year. Can either of them punch a ticket to Footlocker? What about top Nick Wolk’s finish at the meet a year ago?

3.      Awesome performance by the top teams. I was expecting about half of the top 50 to be from team state qualifiers. As a rule of thumb, I feel like that is often the case. But this season, 28 of the top 39 finishers were from state qualifying teams! That made front running super important at this meet which played into the hands of South Fayette and Harbor Creek and actually made things a bit more interesting for Dallas who had a ton of guys mixed in at the inflection point.

4.      Notre Dame XC makes the Notre Dame name proud. District 11’s top team placed 9^th overall. D11 hasn’t had a ton of top 10 teams in recent years, but Notre Dame Green Pond had an excellent showing at states. They were helped in large part by John Koons, a sophomore who placed 25^th overall. This ND GP squad returns six of their top 7 runners for next year as well.

5.      Gutsy front running. The general consensus after this race seemed to be that going out too fast eats you up and spits you out. Well, although there were some first mile casualties, the big names really impressed me with their ability to hang on. All the sub 5 opening milers held on for the medals. Dallas went out hard and held on for the victory. South Fayette ran a gutsy opening stretch and nearly came away with the silver medals. That’s a hard, bold way to run on this course, but you have to respect how they were able to hang on.

#DerailTheTrain

Let’s check in with my predictions and see who proved me wrong. I had a halfway decent showing in this one (got 20 out of 25 medalists), but there was still plenty to rub in my face. Have to give a big shout out to Erik Andrzejewski. The sophomore from General McClane has been on a roll recently and capped off his season as the first finisher from the always competitive District 10. That helped lead his General McClane team to a 6^th place finish overall. His teammate and fellow sophomore Nate Price was a strong 36^th overall.

We’ve already discussed some team breakthroughs like South Fayette and Quaker Valley. Jake Smiley of QV was one of the big success stories individually, placing 32^nd overall, just 9 seconds out of the medals. Christian Babo was one of the big overachievers on my board as well from Harbor Creek. He ran that gutsy race with a fast early pace and finished with his second individual state medal, some 16 places ahead of where I projected. I also was really impressed with the past few weeks from Jerod Waller of Berwick in District 2. Waller finished 29^th in this race and 8^th at Districts, both crushing my predictions for him and rolling among the front runners on this loaded Berwick team that put 3 in the top 50 overall.

State Championship Recap: A Boys

By Jarrett Felix

A State Championship Recap

The Race

Winchester Thurston entered as favorites and their pack got out hard, ready to defend that reputation. They had five runners in the top 25 of the team standings at the mile mark, giving them a comfortable lead in the standings. Both Tristan Forsythe and Ben Littman, the team’s front runners, were among the small group of runners that went through the mile under five minutes.

Leading the way was Griffin Mackey from Sewickley Academy. The defending state champion pushed the pace out quickly as he had last year. He raced sparingly in 2016, but he went for it in the early stages of the state championship. Also in the top group was Noah Curtin and Jimmy Zimmerman of Mercyhurst Prep, Donovan Myers and Phoenix Myers of Seneca, Connor Walsh of Cambridge Springs, Brenden Miller of Upper Dauphin and Ryan Thrush of Brookville.

The first mile ends with a hill and then the alohas come into play on that second mile. Anybody who went out too hard really had to be feeling it through the second mile as almost all the hills in the course are featured during that stretch. Navigating the hills best was Tristan Forsythe of Winchester Thurston. He opened up a big lead, a six second edge, and crossed the road with a solid lead. His teammate Ben Littman tried to go with him and help WT get a 1-2 finish like they had done so many races before, but a pack lurked behind them.

As they went into the loop, it looked to me like Forsythe had a big enough edge to take gold. However, that new loop is a lot longer than I thought. As the fans waited to see who would come up Poop-Out hill first, a small group of fans erupted into furious cheers right around the final turn. Coming into view was Noah Curtin of Mercyhurst Prep as he sprinted home toward the finish line. He was followed not too long after by 1:53 800m runner Donovan Myers who trusted his kick to bring him home. Forsythe hung on well for third.

One of the biggest movers in the second half of the race was Zachary Wortman of Elk County Catholic. The district nine runner up went from 5:11 at the mile (18 seconds off the lead) to 7^th place overall, 23 seconds off first and 5 seconds off fifth. Wortman was one of just four medalists to go through the first mile over 5:10. The others were Caleb Sneller (25^th), Harrison Keenan (23^rd) and Christian Tanner (22^nd). Tanner, just a sophomore from Smethport, went out in 5:26 through the mile and came roaring all the way back into the medals alongside fellow sophomore Darion Gregory (29^th).

In the team standings, Winchester Thurston continued to roll. They had three state medalists for the second straight year with Forsythe and Littman in the top 6 overall and Shaun Hay placing 16^th. Their fourth and fifth runners also cracked the top 50 overall, clinching the victory for Winchester Thurston with a tiny 62 points. No one else ended up in the double digits.

Elk County Catholic, who was 4^th at the mile, finished second overall. But Seneca really gave them a run for their money. I was very impressed with the run by Seneca, especially their 3^rd and 4^th runners, Adam Hanes and Robert Stepnowski. They hung tough with a strong pack for Elk CC, but ultimately finished 5 points off the podium.

Northeast Bradford finished 4^th and Montrose of District 2 finished 5^th. Casey Ellis and Garret Smith provided a nice 1-2 punch for NEB while sophomore Zak Smith stepped up with a top 50 finish. Montrose had huge days from the Brewer brothers, Owen finished as the team’s #1 runner and in the medals after he was the team’s 3^rd man at districts. His younger brother, sophomore Max Brewer, finished as the team’s #4. Unfortunately, the team didn’t have as tight of a spread between their top 3 runners as they did at districts. If they had a perfect day with three guys around Brewer, they likely would have been the second place team. However, at states, it’s really hard to have a perfect day. Still awesome to post a top 5 team in the state.

Quick Thoughts

1.      Noah Curtin has one heck of a clutch gene. To be honest, his season to date in 2016 had been pretty lackluster. At districts, Connor Walsh, Donovan and Phoenix Myers and Zac Tingley all bested him quite convincingly just a week ago. Guys like Zach Wortman had beaten him at the McQuaid Invitational. But on race day, he went out hard, put himself in the mix and then, when the pressure was on, he threw down an awesome kick and got the victory. The guys he outkicked? A 1:53 800m runner, a low 4:20s miler with two track state medals, and a 48 second 400m runner! Congrats to Noah on an awesome race and well deserved state championship.

2.      District 1 had a big meet. The D1 boys really impressed me in this one. Tim Kennel finished 8^th overall and will be the #2 returner for next year’s state meet. Then, in 11^th, Jenkintown’s Jack Miller finished as the top sophomore overall. He and Joshua Jackson (24^th overall in a big race) helped lead Jenkintown to a fantastic 6^th place finish in the team standings.

3.      The District 3 craziness continues. Just a week after we saw some big upsets at D3 individually, Morgan Morrison stepped up to become the surprise #1 finisher with a 12^th place overall finish. Morrison was 4^th at districts with a 17:01, but ran 16:58 on the Hershey course, one of the only runners across all divisions in D3, to run faster at Hershey. Caleb Sneller and Ian Gabig also clocked top 30 finishes for District 3.

4.      West Middlesex was no fluke. The District 10 runner ups surprised me when they beat Mercyhurst Prep for the second spot and then they did it again at states with a 7^th place team finish at 196 points. Freshman Luke Mantzell and Senior Jacob Unverdorben led the way with top 50 finishes. District 10 had a big individual day with three top five finishers, but their teams (3^rd and 7^th) also really held their own as well.

5.      Freshman step up and handle the pressure. I’m always impressed when the young guys handle the big stage. It’s really hard for even the most experienced seniors  The top freshman was Ben Hoffman from Elk County Catholic who finished 27^th overall. Hoffman finished as ECC’s #2 and his efforts over the final mile, coupled with freshman teammate Isaac Wortman (54^th overall) were a huge part of why Elk County was able to hold off Seneca for second overall.  A total of 7 freshmen finished in the top 55 overall, including three from the top 2 teams overall.

#DerailTheTrain

As usual, we had plenty of performances that proved my predictions very wrong. But I’ll try to acknowledge some of the big step up performances from this meet who made me look silly. Obviously Noah Curtin of Mercyhurst Prep had a huge day. I picked him for 10^th overall and he finished 1^st so that’s about as derailing as you can get. Also coming through was Ben Heim of Washington. I picked him to finish outside of the medals, but the 1:55 half miler ran a very smart race to finish 9^th overall in the state. This came a week after he was 10^th at the District Championships. The district 6 runners stepped it up as well. Led by Chris Colwell in 21^st, District 6 placed five runners in the top 50 overall. Also a quick shout out to District champions Kamil Jihad (44^th, D12) and Wayne Reilly (46^th, D11) who impressed me a lot with top 50 finishes. Both guys come back next year.

State Week Is Here

UPDATE: I'll be updating this post throughout the week to let you know what has been posted and what is still to come.

Welcome to state championship week on the blog! Here’s a breakdown of everything that will be coming your way this week to help celebrate the sport’s biggest day.

Top 50 Individual Predictions 

AAA Predictions
AA Predictions
A Predictions

Top 10 Team Predictions 

AAA Team Predictions
AA Team Predictions
A Team Predictions

State Championship Fantasy Draft 

Check out the Fantasy XC Draft Results Here

Fan Question Night – This Tuesday night, I will be having a special discussion hour where the readers can ask me any questions you have and I will answer. I’m hoping to do this live on the google hangouts stream if we can work out some of our technical difficulties, but if not I will answer the questions live through the comment section on the blog. You can ask questions through email, twitter, or the comment section. If this ends up being a worthwhile idea, I will offer another one on Friday night just before the championships when all the posts are finished.

District Recaps 

Check out Blake's D3 Recap Here!

P.S. If you are wondering how the district predictions turned out, here's a quick outline of the percentages on LXV+

State Championships – On Saturday, it’s race day. That’s when all the talking finishes and the running starts. We get to find out how wrong I am about things! I’m planning to attend the meet live and in person for the second straight year. I’ll probably be wearing something with Oregon colors because I don’t own any other type of clothes. 

AAA Top 10 Team Predictions

Every year there’s at least one spot in the top 10 decided by one point or less. Twice in the past five years, the AAA state title has been decided on tie breaker. It’s a matter of seconds. Less than seconds actually. Every place counts and most of them in the middle are decided by less than a second. The front runners will grab headlines all year, but on state championship Saturday, the real heroes are often a team’s #4 and #5 runners. That may never be truer than the 2016 championships.

Let’s just if the devil’s in the details, then I’m satanic.

10. CB West

CB West has been 6^th and 3^rd at states the past two years after finishing 3^rd and 2^nd at the district championships. This year, they were 3^rd and just behind DT West. Considering I have DT West at 4^th in my rankings, that could mean CB West is a big sleeper squad that is ascending at the right time. What I really like about CB West is that they have 7 guys who could all be in basically any spot in the scoring five and the team could be successful. They are kind of like North Allegheny East in that respect. Teagan Fortna had a huge race at districts and it’s possible that a different member of the top 5 will step up in his footsteps this weekend coming up (my money is on Michael Samson who was the team’s #6 at districts). 

The question for this team will be, like North Allegheny, where does their pack begin? They had no one in the top 30 or so at districts so I’m not sure what that means for states. I will say this, this team reminds me a bit of last year’s CR North squad. That team also had a tight pack with no real front runners of note at districts. Then they turned things around to finish 5^th in the state when that pack came to play in Hershey. I think the team battle is deeper this year than last year, but don’t count out CB West for a run at the top 5 or 6 teams for the third straight season.

9. Mechanicsburg

For anyone who has been following along with my posts year round, they now I’m a big of this Mechanicsburg team and their upside. It was pretty cool to see this program pull through and districts and qualify for the state championships. In many ways that was probably a mini-victory for this school, so who knows what kind of extra motivation they will have for states after such an emotion run at districts.

That being said, I think this team’s skill sets could translate very well to the state meet. They have two top notch front runners in Morgan Cupp and Alex Tomasko. They also have a poised senior in Andrew Sulon who is very consistent and provides a nice #3. The x-factors are the two sophomores who have been running 4-5 this season. Brendan Knepper has come on very strong in recent weeks and finished in the top 35 at districts. Michael Vigliano’s best race of the season was likely Carlisle and, if he runs like that, he could be up with Knepper and make Mechanicsburg one of the best in the field through five guys. Of course even if Vigliano isn’t quite in Carlisle form, if he can deliver a solid performance and hang on a little better of the final mile relative to districts, this team looks like a top 10 contender. 

Props to Shea Rounsville who has been consistently improving as the #6 runner on this squad and has closed the gap down to Vigliano for insurance purposes.

8. Lower Dauphin

I’m very interested to see the packs vs. front-runner match ups at states. One of the most interesting of those teams is Lower Dauphin. They haven’t been quite at the level of Carlisle in discussions this year, but they have followed a pretty similar format to achieve success. They have their own dynamic top three with medal hopefuls Kyler Shea, Jared Giannascoli and Colton Cassell, a strong young #4 in Mark Walsh and then a strong group of 5-6-7 guys who push each other through the line and round out the scoring. 

I’ve been concerned their top three may not be able to carry this team up the standings in the same way Carlisle’s does, but I’ve been proven wrong fairly consistently as of late. Shea, Giannascoli and Cassell are going to be in the mix with a ton of other important team front runners like Owori, Cupp, Tomasko, Inglis, Addison, Paul, and CRN’s pack so if this trio puts it together that could mean big swings in the team standings across the board it was anticipated to be a tight race.

But freshman Mark Walsh, who has been running phenomenally this year, could be the most critical piece. If he continues to excel the way he has the past two weeks and their #5 can keep in the mix with other packs, then this team is in business. As things stand, I see them putting together a similar performance to Mount Lebanon last year which puts them right in the mix for a top 6-9 spot.

7. North Allegheny

I feel like there’s not too much to say about these guys that hasn’t already been covered. They are a great program with some experienced, proven talents. They have a tight spread and a deep group which means they can survive an off day or two. But they will need to continue to find break out performers if they want to make a run at top five spot.

However, I feel like the narrative has evolved a little bit. I’ve seen some flashes of potential from TJ Robinson and Dan McGoey. Bobby Lutz seems to run this course pretty well and looked strong at Foundation. And they’ve got a little extra motivation after losing that WPIAL championship streak. The pack is starting to spread out a bit and I feel there’s a chance we could see one or two Tigers slip into the top 50 overall which would be big. 

At the state meet, a large, talented field, I think it will be really tricky to hold any spread near their single digit spreads they had prior to WPIALs so they will definitely need to have those breakout performers. 

6. O’Hara

O’Hara has had a long time to dwell on their close loss to LaSalle at the PCL Championships. That’s two in a row for LaSalle and I’m sure the O’Hara boys would love to get revenge at states. You can basically throw out the district results for this school as they were most likely holding back a bit to rest for the state meet after running hard just a few days earlier at their league championship. 

As you might have seen (spoiler alert), I’ve got LaSalle second and O’Hara sixth. The gap between these teams is probably not four spots. But I’m a bit more nervous about O’Hara than LaSalle because they don’t have quite the same level of depth. That being said, Billy Donovan has run in the top five on O’Hara’s last two state qualifying squads. He’s got experience on this stage and he’s been consistently improving. The guys to watch for me will really be Jack Becker and Patrick James. Becker is a bit less experienced on this stage, but has had a very nice season. Meanwhile, Patrick James has emerged as a stud front runner. However, James struggled a bit in his last trip to the state course. If we see the Patrick James we saw at Delcos, O’Hara maybe has three state medalists and is looking at, in all likelihood, a top 3 finish.

I’m looking forward to the smack talking from the O’Hara boys after they outperform my expectations in Hershey.

5. Seneca Valley

Don’t underestimate the WPIAL. Given recent history, they’ve been the second strongest district in the state. North Allegheny, the WPIAL champs each year for the past decade, have finished in the top 5 at states each of the last 10 years. However, we’ve also seen top 5 finishes from Mount Lebanon (2011), Baldwin (2010, 2009) and Seneca Valley (2007). This year’s WPIAL champs are not the Tigers of NA but instead the somethings of SV and so, logically, they (and the Tigers) should both be top 5 team threats this year.

I feel like this team has really been underrated all year. They have consistently improved each meet this season, they have two of the most talented sophomores in the entire state and, very quietly, they dropped their spread under 30 seconds at WPIALs toppling a legendary streak. This team is a little young and a little inexperienced but they’ve got experience on this course from last state meet and Foundation. 

In the cons column, you can argue that districts had to be a huge win for this team and their emotions were like very high for that race. Will they have the energy to mount another peak performance at states? If they can do that, they could have three guys in the top 40 with a sneaky good 4-5 punch. If not, and one piece has an off day, they haven’t shown quite the level of depth at 6-7 that some other teams have. 

I lean towards the pros with this team. It just seems like a resilient bunch ready to maybe pull out one more surprise. The x-factor here will be Trey Razanauskas. He really came through at WPIALs finishing 5^th after being his team’s #5 at Tri-States.

4. DT West

After finishing second at districts, DT West will look to bounce back at states. They are the defending champions and return three guys who ran on that state championship squad plus two more guys who ran on the 2014 4^th place team. In 2014, West was 5^th at districts and then finished 4^th at states. In 2015, they won both districts and states, but at the state meet they really put an exclamation point on the thing. The big difference from week to week for those squads were Ryan Barton and Jake O’Neill. Barton was 36^th at states his sophomore season and really elevated his game for the Hershey course. Then O’Neill delivered the nail in the coffin at states a year ago when he broke into the top 50 at states individually. Both these guys (particularly O’Neill who has the slightly larger sample size) seem to have a knack for the Hershey course. 

They will need both of them to be on top of their game while Bullock and Alansky stay relevant in the mix for the top 50. If O’Neill gets into the medals or Barton cracks the top 40 again, it would really boost West’s hopes for making the podium yet again, but if they run similar to the district championships, they fall into a scrum with the other strong pack squads like North Allegheny and CB West just trying to stay afloat in the top 10 conversation. I believe in their championship pedigree personally and that’s why I feel comfortable slotting them at least 4^th in the line-up.

A lot of seniors on this team with their last chance to leave a lasting legacy for this program to close out quite the three-year stretch. Maybe that gives the Whippets a little extra spark on race day.

3. Carlisle

Although it’s probably obvious enough that I don’t need to say it out loud, I will anyway. Carlisle’s front running is really good. And no team can realistically match it. But I’m nervous about their depth behind that front running. I’ll admit, if any team is going to knock off my pre-race favorite, CRN, then I think it’s going to be Carlisle. They have the most upside. But I think it all comes down to the #5 spot.

A couple things that aren’t as simple as “how does their #5 stack up?”. First, Carlisle’s front running obviously is a big numbers advantage. But it’s also a big mental advantage. Knowing that you have the guys out front giving you super low numbers means you don’t have to be a hero out there, you just need to go out and do your job. For some guys, that takes the pressure off and allows them to run freer and faster. That could really help this team pull off the victory.

Another wild card in piecing this whole thing together: Carlisle has yet to face LaSalle or CRN this season. They’ve matched up head to head with DT West all year and the two have been pretty close. So far, I’ve been of the opinion that DT West was ahead of LaSalle and North, but obviously districts changed my mind a bit. If I have turned around and undervalued DT West than it is going to reflect on Carlisle as well.

Strategy wise, Carlisle has, in the past at least, taken a very conservative approach to the first mile or so at states. This is probably smart: most people go out way too fast at states given the circumstances and the Herd can thunder by people the second half of the course. However, it’s a very tight course and you really have to be patient so you aren’t expending too much energy weaving in and out of the packs of people. That’s something interesting to watch with this team.

Finally, they’ve got three sophomores battling for those last couple scoring spots, including Jack Wisner who looked excellent at districts. If Jack can continue to progress and give them a quality #4 leg, then Carlisle will have a big lead through 4 runners that should help them clinch an appearance on the medal stand.

2. LaSalle

The concerns that I have with many of the other top programs regarding depth are not reflected in LaSalle. In the past, this team has been known for their incredible pack, but in order for them to take the next step, we knew they would need some front running. Well, I tentatively think Evan Addison and Stephen Paul can both provide that front running at states. Meanwhile, the pack is starting to really come together behind them. Brendan Price is a great #3 who has placed very well at this course both at the Foundation Invite and the state championships. As of now, LaSalle’s 4-5 (and maybe 6?) are running pretty close to Price. Quinn O’Neill has looked awesome in his last couple races. That could mean five guys in the top 60 overall with a couple medal threats.

It’s possible I’m overestimating this pack (I’ve overestimated LaSalle plenty in the past), but I just lean on depth in times like this when the state meet is so unpredictable. Plus, I really like how well they have run the Hershey course the past two seasons. They had a great day at states last year and ran fantastic at the Foundation Invitational. In a year with a small course change that some teams might underestimate, I like that LaSalle has the extra edge of knowing what they are up against (and knowing they have gone up against it well). 

They had two freshmen in their top 7 at districts which can sometimes be a cause for concern (freshman sometimes struggle at a big meet like this), but there’s not a ton of pressure on those guys to get big points considering the team’s depth. They can go out and run with no expectations and, if they do well, it’s a bonus. 

1. CR North

The general consensus after districts from people that I talked to (including myself) was “I knew CRN was good, but I didn’t know they were that good.” They absolutely rolled at districts with an all-time great performance. Four guys under 15:50 with a fifth at 16 flat is pretty darn remarkable and transports this from top 3 in the state to top 3 in the region. As has been mentioned, that performance was in line with 2013 Henderson and 2006 Coatesville and North’s performance came in a slower overall race (the winners in ’13 and ’06 pulled the race out fast with sub 15 performances).

North has proven they can peak well at the state meet and even “miler” types like James Zingarini have improved their finish between districts and states. Campbell, Haas, Keller, Early and Koza all raced at the state meet a year ago (Haas and Keller raced in 2014 as well) so they’ve got the experience. North has also developed a little extra insurance with their #6 Ehrgott who ran sub 16:20 at Lehigh. I think this team will deliver, perhaps not quite as dominant as last week, but will take care of business.

I’d say Early is probably the x-factor. If Early can continue to run right with Keller and Haas, that should be four top 40ish with a fifth in the picture to bring it home.

AA Top 10 Team Predictions

by Jarrett Felix

I think this might be the closest team race of the day when all is said and done. Three teams look poised to make a serious run at the title while a few other teams are lurking ready to pounce on an opening. Will Dallas retain their throne? Will York Suburban reclaim theirs? Or will the new team from Greensburg Salem make it the year of D7 in AA?

10. Lewisburg
This last spot was a toss up for me. I think there are a lot of teams who could end up grabbing this spot, but ultimately I decided to roll with Lewisburg. I think Anthony Bach and Nicholas Alico will provide a strong front running presence for this squad, but I also think that Jack Spaulding could have a big bounce back performance from districts and end up swinging the standings. This Lewisburg team has been waiting a while for the chance to compete at states and, now that the District sends two teams, they get their shot. I’m excited to see how they handle the bright lights.

9. Holy Cross
The District 2 squad put together a strong, complete team performance to snag the second and final state qualifying spot out of the always dangerous District 2. They placed three runners in the top 10 overall in the district and, although the 4-5 was a bit farther back, still had five runners in the top 30. That depth paid off against Berwick who, although they had a monster top 4, couldn’t match Holy Redeemer through 5. For those who have read me in the past, you know that I am a fan of the top 3 theory at the state meet. A great top 3 can carry you quickly up the standings and Holy Redeemer, on the right day, can have a great top 3. I’m looking forward to watch Hoda fight for the medals and seeing if either sophomore from this squad’s 2-3 punch has a clutch gene for the state meet. 

8. South Fayette
South Fayette has been a top 10 team in the state before and this year’s squad should basically be a super charged version of last year’s team. They have the two super front runners in Pfeil and Snodgrass who will help this team run 3 on 5 against their closest competition. Their pack has some solid state experience from last year and has been solid this year. If they can upgrade for solid to exceptional, look for South Fayette to jump a few teams, most notably their district rivals from Quaker Valley. Watch for Michael Cusick to potentially set the tone on race day for that pack behind the top 2. If he has a big day, so will this team.

7. Quaker Valley
One of the biggest surprises of district week for me was the impressive showing by Quaker Valley. Through 2 miles they were even with state title contenders Greensburg Salem and finished with five runners in the top 30 overall. They have the ultimate front runner in Zach Skolnekovich, who is the early individual title favorite. The only reason I’m hesitant about this team is because they came seemingly so far out of left field to grab this spot, I’m worried last weekend may have been their best effort. However, they have four seniors in the top five who want to leave their legacy at the school and a very talented freshman in Daniel Ford. I think their depth through five carries them by South Fayette and maybe up past Wyomissing, but I’m still uncertain if the pack is good enough to them into the top 5.

6. Wyomissing
I like the way this Wyomissing team has performed this season. They’ve got a lot of youth in the roster, particularly in the 3-6 spot where they are projected to have a pair of freshmen and a pair of sophomores. But the x-factor for this squad in recent weeks has been their senior Chip Schroder. He was 5^th at the District 3 Championships last week which means he could potentially be a medal threat this weekend. They already have Joe Cullen, who is running like a top 5 guy in the state. That gives them a great 1-2 punch. If freshman Ben Kuhn can scare the top 50, this team will have a very formidable front three. We will see how the sophomores handle the bright lights, potentially rounding out the scoring five.

5. Holy Ghost Prep

District One’s record in AA since its inception is as follows: 1^st in 2012, 2^nd in 2013, 6^th in 2014, 3^rd in 2015. So basically, pretty good. I think HG Prep continues that trend come state time with a top 6 finish. They’ve got a good chance at top 4, maybe even top 3 if they can seize on another team’s off day. They were 4^th at Foundation, they ran away with the district title either and they have to be excited about finally getting the chance to show their stuff as a team in Hershey. They’ve got an excellent front runner in Callahan Lennon and a team of studs hanging around at 2-5 ready to make noise.

What needs to happen for this team to move up is similar to what Bishop Shanahan showed us last year from the same district. Shanahan didn’t have any big time front runners, but they had a tight group of 4 that packed themselves together in the 40 to 60 range. HG Prep could potentially put something like that together, but it would be with their 2-5 runners instead of their 1-4. Considering that pack would be behind a medal contender in Callahan Lennon, that would be a dangerous team in the overall standings.

4. Harbor Creek

In each classification I have that one team who I think, if everything goes right, they could pull off one of the craziest upsets we’ve ever seen. My team in AAA is Mechanicsburg and my team is A is probably Montrose (although they might not be big underdogs so much as Winchester Thurston is huge favorites). In AA, it’s Harbor Creek. I think this top 3 has a chance to grapple with the best of them. They are young with two sophomores and junior projected to wave the flag, but we just saw two sophomores and a junior make up a top 3 that won states last year. Their #4 runner, Jared Szklenski, is the key here. He was 63^rd at states last year, which is very solid, but for HC to pull off the potential upset for the title, he has to be easily the best #4 runner in the entire field (last year the best #4 in the field was 57^th so very doable, next best was 61^st though). From there, they will need a strong day out of the #5 spot, that perhaps isn’t in the cards, but they have some upside guys who could make things interesting.

I couldn’t pick these guys for the victory, even though I think they are a great team. But there’s nothing to hang your head about if you end up finishing 4^th in the state or in a battle for the top 3. I see these guys as a top 5 team with some potential to swing either way depending on how things play out at the #5 spot and if their two sophomore leaders have any state jitters (last year they had a little bit of that I’d say, but they were just freshmen).

3. Greensburg Salem

I think a lot of the talk coming into this meet will be about York Suburban and Dallas. That’s fair. I’m going to do that for the last six paragraphs of this post. But Greensburg Salem has made a strong case for themselves in the state championship conversation. It started a year ago when they survived the loaded AA WPIAL team race and advanced to states. Here, we noticed their top two freshmen, Mark Brown and Cameron Binda, who both finished in the top 50 at states at such a young age.

But really, the curtains on the championship window weren’t pulled back until Dylan Binda joined the team and really started to improve. He’s running as the team’s #4 this year behind Brown, Cameron and senior Frankie King (who is having a great year in his own right) and has helped transform the depth of this team. Greensburg Salem was second at foundation, just four points back of York Suburban and eight points ahead of Dallas. And guess what? They’ve only improved since then, especially Binda.

On the flip side, the other teams have improved as well. GS had the weakest 4-5 punch of the bunch at Foundation and it’s very possible that states, with a more talented overall field, could do some work to expose that flaw. But all the same, I think Greensburg Salem has a really good chance to pull the upset. I literally came within 30 seconds of flipping this whole post around and moving them to 1^st place. I’ll probably regret not doing that.

The keys for them are as follows. They have the best top 3 of the bunch on paper (potentially by a lot if all three of their guys are on). This team will definitely need to take advantage of that. Then the 4-5 guys just need to hold serve. Hang as close as they can to the scorers from their rivals and lean on the guys above them to do their thing.

2. York Suburban

Last year, a super young Dallas team surprised York Suburban for the team title by just 8 points. They were the team of the future, returning their entire top five which consisted of two sophomores and two freshmen. The next two state titles looked like they were theirs now that they had pulled off this upset. But York Suburban did not go quietly. They returned a young squad of their own which, like Dallas, featured four freshmen/sophomores. And that young team is now ready to challenge for not just this year’s state crown, but next year’s as well. We are perhaps seeing the middle season of a Warriors-Cavs esque duel for state supremacy.

Last year, it was tight at almost every spot along the way. Through three runners, Dallas had a 6 point advantage. The 4 and 5 runners were separated by just 2 points in aggregate. York Suburban actually had a slightly faster average time than Dallas thanks to their front runner Donavan Mears. I expect things to be equally close this year. If you look at it straight on #1 vs. #1, #2 vs. #2, etc., that best of five series will probably decide things (seems obvious, but it’s not always the case if a team has either a significant front running advantage or weaker #5).

York Suburban won foundation this year. They looked great at districts. They have two top notch front runners. That’s a key as York Suburban, despite their excellent seasons recently, has yet to get two guys on the medal stand in the same year. I think the key is going to be who steps up at #3. They can compete well out front and they definitely don’t lack depth, but will someone step up to close the 2-3 gap they had at districts. If they do that, I can’t imagine they leave with silvers again.

1. Dallas

Ultimately, I see this race coming right down to the wire yet again. On paper, Dallas hasn’t looked as strong as York Suburban in my personal opinion. Right now, I’m probably most worried about where their #2 runner is going to be. I know they have the depth and I know they have that clutch factor that helped a team of mostly sophomores come up huge at states a year ago. But last year they had two top 30 guys, the second of which was ahead of YS’s #2. This time around, I’m not sure Dallas can get two across before Bryce Ohl and Jarrett Raudensky, who looked great at districts. But I really like their pack and their depth and the fact that he exceeded my expectations last year.

A couple x-factors in this one for Dallas. First, you have Josh Wyandt who was one of the team’s top runners most of the season, but slipped a bit at districts. If he returns to form, that’s a huge lift for this pack. Then you have Jason Culp. He’s the lone senior at the front of this group and had a big day last year to bolster the team’s top 3. If he can better his state finish from last year, that already puts him around that top 30 overall spot I’m looking for. And then Adam Borton. He was the team’s #2 last year that came up huge with a top 30 finish. Could he potentially have his breakthrough back on the Hershey hills?

They have a lot of weapons and they will need all of them to be ready to roll if they are going to hang on against York Suburban and Greensburg Salem.