NXN Regional Preview

Hey everyone! Nice to be back writing a brief piece for you all. I’ll just jump into it: today I will be trying to explain the NXN qualifying situation and where CR North fits into the equation. Also, just how good are other teams in the Northeast Region?

I have an excel document on all of the statistics mentioned here, so if you send me an e-mail at forrest47.kentwell93@gmail.com I will send you what I have compiled. 

There are two main ways of figuring out team rankings. The first is through flotrack’s ratings (sponsored by saucony), which is based out of the west. The second is www.tullyrunners.com, which is based out of New York. I really like Tully’s system of ‘speed ratings,’ because of the various factors he takes into account (there is a video with him on flotrack explaining this I would recommend researching). I will be using both of these systems throughout the post. 

How to make Nationals?

Very simply if you are top 2 in your region you automatically go to nationals. After that there are 8 “at-large” bids given out to teams who placed 3rd or 4th in their region (there are 8 regions, so some regions will get 2 at-large teams and other regions will give no at-large bids). How these at-large bids are given is always difficult to determine, but it seems that part of it is based on the flotrack rankings, which is why they will become so important. I will speak on these at-large bids and national rankings a bit later. 

PA History (2012-2015)

I want to start with a brief overview of the last few years for PA at the Nike Northeast regional meet. As you may have realized, the PA state meet is 4 weeks before the regional meet, while the New England Championships is two weeks before and the New Jersey Meet of Champions is the week before. This allows all the other teams from the Northeast to peak going into the regional meet, while PA teams are left to take a break and re-peak. This is a very difficult task for the PA runners and results are extremely variable in this meet. 2012 was by far the best year for PA consistency with each runner from WCH and O’Hara (other than Pitone) running equally as well if not much better at Regionals than they did at States. Some big improvements came from Barchet (178.7 at states to 192.4 at regionals; Knapp: 170 to 178.7; and Belfatto: 171.7 to 178). These jumps of 4-7 speed-rating points are a change of 12 to 21 seconds, which is pretty impressive. Both of these teams made nationals: O’Hara placed second and received an auto-bid, while Henderson (5 points behind) on the at-large bid. 

The next year Barchet had a much more difficult race as did Smart. Collins stepped up for Henderson as did Morro (5 points better) for O’Hara. It seems here that their 4-5 runners made some big improvements (although Waltz was Henderson’s 6th man after being 4th at states, but their depth kept them in it). In 2014 McGoey and Wharrey after killer races at the state meet lost 5 speed-rating points at regionals. Seel improved, but Stupak and Deible also struggled (lost 5.5 and 3 points respectively). NA did not end up making nationals.  Finally, last season the state champs DT West saw Sappy run basically the same race, with improvements from Josh and difficulties from Jaxson(189 at states to 179 at regionals). Ryherd and O’Neill seemed to switch places in terms of score. They ended up winning the region and heading to nationals quite handily. 

So, the larger point is that it’s going to be very, very hard to predict just how CR North will run. Who will improve? Who will have a really poor race? But before we get to these questions here is how CR North’s speed-ratings from the state meet match up with the past regional races:

2012: Total Score - 163 (4th Place). I would say they would not have gotten the auto-bid, but this was the year when O’Hara placed 5th at nationals (had 90 points at this meet), so there is a small chance the directors would have recognized how strong the region was this year, but shout out to O’Hara and Henderson for an amazing year for PA.

2013: Total Score – 145 (3rd Place: 6 points ahead of 4th). CR North in this race would have been 31 points behind the second place team and I’m not sure they would have gotten the at-large-bid because the region was a bit weaker this year out front. 

2014: Total Score – 143 (3rd Place: 41 points behind second). LaSalle (CT) had an amazing team this year and I think CR North would have gotten the at large bid behind another strong CBA team who was in second.

2015: Total Score – 121 (2nd Place: 19 Ahead of last years second). Last year was a bit of a weak year for the northeast with LaSalle and CBA graduating so many runners. DT West was probably a top 15 team in the nation and North would have gotten the auto-bid in second place behind them. 

Overall, based on their states rankings it seems like CR North is about a 3rd place team out of the Northeast region on just about any year. The question is, how do they stack up against other Northeast teams this year?

The Setting: How the Northeast Looks

This year it is pretty clear that CBA is by far and away the best team in the Northeast region and I have no doubt they will win quite handily. They have several runners who will be hovering between SR of 177 and 180 with a decent front runner in Hill and experience and depth at the backend of the squad. If they ran at PA states they would have scored 55 points placing 7th, 8th, 9th, 11th, and 20th in team points. After CBA there are two other NJ teams and a squad from New England to worry about.

At the New England Championships (NEC) Staples TC had an absolutely fantastic day to take the win in 115 points. They have a strong front-runner in Ahmad (186.73 @NEC’s and 185 at Connecticut States) who matches up fairly well with Campbell (184.67 at states). Behind him they saw some great runs from their 2-5 guys:
Seiple: 177.54 @ NEC; 173.33 @ States
Landowne: 175 @ NEC; 171.67 @ States

Green: 174.43 @ NEC; 173.67 @ States

Myers: 171.20 @ NEC; 166.33 @ States

Their 5th man Myers really made the difference here taking loads of points off this team. If CR North had run in the New England Championships (NEC) with their exact rankings from the state meet then they would have scored 124 points, just 9 points shy of Staples. However, if Staples had run their rankings from the Connecticut State championships CR North would have easily handled them by about 20 points. Which Staples team will we see at Regionals? The one from NEC or States? They were clearly peaking more for NEC’s than their state meet, which shows me that they are truly gearing up for a strong regional race, and I would guess they race similar to how they ran at NEC’s.

The NJ Meet of Champions was this weekend. Before I dive in, can I just quickly say say: why don’t we have one of these yet for PA?!? Moving on: CBA was dethroned placing not second, but 3rd!

Princeton: 104 Points

Colts Neck: 106 Points

CBA: 109

CR North from states rankings 110 Points. 

This is extremely close, but what I want everyone to keep in mind is that CR North has NOT raced in 3 weeks. These teams are peaking for NJ Champs and regionals and have had 3 weeks to train to boost their times/ratings. Teams like Princton and Colts Neck have very, very strong front 3s that dwarf CR North, but Koza is the best 5th man around other than CBA. And from CBA Kilcolley and Miele ran very poorly (both have run 177’s before this season) and I would expect them to bounce back. If Princeton or Colts Neck has an inspired 5th man at regionals who moves up about 5 speed-rating points they will be an absolute lock. 

Lastly, the Massachusetts State Championships.

Wellesley: 76 Points

Lowell: 82 Points
CR North (state scores): 84 Points

Once again, we see CR North coming very tightly behind several strong teams. Lowell has a brilliant front 2, but Wellesley’s pack kept them in it (5 runners above 173). Wellesley reminds me quite a bit of CR North actually and I think they’ll have a great shot at running well because of their pack at regionals. They have not been rated by flotrack, but they are very dangerous. 

So where exactly does CR North Stand? There seem to be 7 very strong teams coming into this regional meet, and I actually think this is better depth than we have seen in the past. So rarely, however, do teams live up to their previous races when it comes to the regional meet. 

Here at CRN’s speed ratings from States and Districts, but keep in mind these are 3-4 weeks before many of these other teams speed ratings:

Campbell: 184.67 @ States; 179 @ Districts

Haas: 175 @ States; 176.33 @ Districts

Keller: 175.67 @ States; 175.67 @ Districts

Earley: 175 @ States; 174.33 @ Districts

Koza: 167.67 @ States; 170 @ Districts

It seems quite clear that Campbell is getting a lot better. If he is able to stay healthy during these few weeks I would bet we see a 186 out of him. Haas, Keller, and Earley are all moving around the 175 range, but it will take a 177 average from them to make nationals. Earley went out in 10:25 at states and is looking for a big breakout race. I think he gets a 178.5 speed rating to lead this group with Haas and Keller running 176.00. Koza will continue to be the most important piece for this team, however. If he does not run a 170 this team does not have a chance to make nationals no matter how strong the top 4 run (unless they are all over 178). If we see Koza run a 172 this team is almost a lock for a top 3 place. 

Rankings Nationally: Will there be At-Large Teams in the Northeast?

So looking through Flotrack’s rankings it seems as though the Northeast has been greatly ignored continuously this season. I have looked through all of the regional rankings and CR North would have placed 4th @ NXN Midwest (beating previously ranked #18 Salon) and behind US #3 Neququa Valley, US #24 Downers Grove, and US #14 Mahomet-Seymour. 

CR North places 2nd out of NXN Heartland (auto-bid) and would have beaten US #21 Edina by 135 points (33 behind US #7 Wayzata). 

CR North would have placed 3rd in the NXN Northwest 17 behind Summit and 33 points ahead of US #19 North Central (who will likely get an at-large bid)

CR North would have placed 2nd in the NXN Southwest. 26 points ahead of US #13 Davis and 64 ahead of US#18 Timpano; and they would have won NXN South (on a super rough day, but they would have beaten US #2 Woodlands). 

I believe there are 3 teams already with locks to get at-large bids: Mayhomet-Seymour, North Central Oregon, and Woodlands. Lyons and Timpano have decent chances of being bumped in as well, which is about 5 teams. This leaves 3 left for the Northeast, California, and New York. From what I’ve seen this year the New York boys are a bit weak so I doubt they will get an at-large team, but you can bet California will send minimally 3 teams. Cali is always deep. However, if at least 4, if not 5 teams of the 7 described above show up at regionals I think there will be two at-large bids from the Northeast, despite not getting much love on flotrack in the rankings. So far only CBA US#4, Colts Neck US #21, and Princeton US #22 are on the list, but this gives some credibility to the regions depth that hopefully will be taken into account. 

Finally, Forrest’s Northeast Rankings

1. CBA

2. Wellesley

3. Colts Neck

4. Staples TC

5. CR North

6. Princeton

7. Lowell

I am quite wary that CR North has never raced on the NXN regional course and are so used to racing as individuals at footlocker. All of these other teams were clearly gearing towards this meet all season, while it was an after thought for CR North who accomplished their season’s goal of winning states. However, if they can make the improvements I think they could have made over the past 3 weeks they will place second. Honestly if squads 2-7 all had their best day they would each be within 10-20 points. It’s one of the closest years I’ve seen from the Northeast and I think the region will send at least 3 teams if not 4, which gives further hope to CR North’s chances. 

2016 NCAA Outdoor Predictions: ForrestCRN

By: PA Dont Play

800

Heat 1: Brandon McBride – Q; Isaiah Harris – Q; Chris Sanders – q
Heat 2: Eliud Rutto – Q; Donavan Brazier – Q; Sampson Laari – q
Heat 3: Shaquille Walker – Q; Jesse Garn – Q

McBride will take his heat out quick and I see this aiding at least one runner to get a q, potentially two. Holland Sherrer could very well sneak in as well. I’m hoping Sanders keeps up his streak. I loved watching him race as a senior in PA high school and he’s gutsy, will go with a faster pace and get himself in behind Harris who has looked great consistently.

Out of Heat 2 I see Rutto and Laari working together knowing they’ll need each second to keep up with the speed from Heat 1. This helps them both get in with Brazier continuing. Tough to call the freshman making it over strong seniors like his teammate Hernandez. I honestly don’t have much faith in the Georgetown program, which is why I’m leaving White on the just missed list.

Heat 3 I really wanted to see Austin Mudd make this final but I don’t think he’s got the top end speed that will be needed. Sad to see him move down from the 1500, which I really thought would be his bread and butter in college. I don’t trust seeing more than 2 freshman make this final, so I leave Heppenstall out. Walker has been consistent and has so much experience I think he takes the win in this heat pretty handily, and I’m going to go with a sleeper pick in Garn to follow up his big PR with another amazing race to get a Q in his second to last race.

In the final I see McBride taking home the Gold. He’s so so powerful and frankly after that 1:44 watch out for him to try and eclipse the 1:44.3 record set by Jim Ryun. I think this quicker pace benefits the experienced guys like Rutto and Walker. In the end I think garn and Rutto ultimately fade and i’m going with Laari to pick up the pieces for his teammate. I think McBride just misses the overall record but will get the Meet Record. This will provide huge motivation to an amazing freshman class. I think that record will be broken in the next 3 years. 

1.    Brandon McBride (Miss. State)- 1:44.40 MR

2.    Shaquille Walker (BYU)

3.    Sampson Laari (Mid. Tenn. State)

4.    Christian Sanders (La Salle)

5.    Isaiah Harris (Penn State)

6.    Eliud Rutto (Mid. Tenn. State)

7.    Donavan Brazier (Texas A&M)

8.    Jesse Garn (Binghamton)

1500

Heat 1: Clayton Murphy – Q; Brannon Kidder – Q; Blake Haney – Q; Craig Engels – Q; Ben Malone – Q
Heat 2: Henry Wynne – Q; Izaic Yorks – Q; Matt Dorsey – Q; Josh Kerr – Q; Jordan Williamsz – Q; James Randon - q; Sam Prankel – q

Heat 1 is stacked with 800m speed demons like Murphy, Kidder, and Engels. I really like the top end speed and Kick on Malone, which is what sneaks him into this final. Haney moves on no problem as well. I don’t see this being a very quick heat either, so no ‘q’’s here.

Heat 2 will have Yorks taking it out to ensure he makes the finals. Wynne and Williamsz should breeze in with strong finishes for the 2-3 slots. I’m a really big fan of the Air Force’s 1500/Mile program and I see Dorsey continuing this tradition with a strong showing into the finals. Gotta give Josh Kerr some love here as well. I’m just a big James Randon fan, so i’m going to go with my heart on him getting the first q into the finals, and it just seemed wrong not to have at least two Oregon jerseys in this final, so Sam Prankel eases into this one at the end past the likes of Horrocks in what should be a quick pace.

I truly believe if you don’t pick Clayton Murphy you’re crazy. He is an absolute stud and rounds benefit him quite well. If there were 3 sets this weekend it would be even easier for him. Really strong field imo, and i’ve got Yorks at 3 and it almost seems a bit high for how slow I think this race will be. So very torn about Williamsz at 7. I think he’s my biggest upset to beat Murphy.

1.    Clayton Murphy (Akron)

2.    Henry Wynne (UVA)

3.    Izaic Yorks (Washington)

4.    Blake Haney (Oregon)

5.    Craig Engels (Mississippi)

6.    Brannon Kidder (Penn State)

7.    Jordan Williamsz (Villanova)

8.    Matt Dorsey (Air Force) 

9.    Sam Prakel (Oregon)

10. James Randon (Yale)

11. Josh Kerr (New Mexico)

12. Ben Malone (Villanova)

3000 Steeple

Heat 1: Aaron Nelson – Q; Edwin Kibichiy – Q; Jakob Abrahamsen – Q; Mj Erb – Q; Elmar Engholm – Q; Caleb Hoover -- q
Heat 2: Mason Ferlic – Q; Jordan Mann – Q; Darren Fahy – Q; Zak Seddon –Q; Troy Reeder – Q; Dylan Blankenbaker – q

Honestly do not know too much about the steeple this year. I bank heavily on XC to show how things will work out for these guys, because I like how the strength translates. That being said I have been watching Mason Ferlic closely and he’s on absolute fire. To consistently be breaking 8:30 is no joke. He will win unless something unpredictable happens, and that is often likely in the steeple. I really like Egholm’s range with 1:50 and 3:42 (1500) under his belt.

1.    Mason Ferlic (Michigan)

2.    Edwin Kibichiy (Louisville)

3.    Elmar Engholm (New Mexico)

4.    Zak Seddon (Florida State)

5.    Caleb Hoover (NAU)

6.    Troy Reeder (Furman)

7.    Jakob Abrahamsen (Eastern Kentucky)

8.    Aaron Nelson (Washington)

9.    Darren Fahy (Georgetown)

10. MJ Erb (Syracuse)

11. Dylan Blankenbaker (Oklahoma)

12. Jordan Mann

5000

After what will have been a devastating Wednesday night for King Ches, will he be able to come back and take the 5k title? Tiernan takes it out hard and burns Ches out. Get ready for a pace that will be absolute fireeee. People will fall off. Wheels will be rolling. Get HYPE.

1.    Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)- 13:22.50

2.    Edward Cheserek (Oregon)- 13:23.80

3.    Justyn Knight (Syracuse)-13:27.40

4.    Sean McGorty (Stanford)

5.    Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech)

6.    Chartt Miller (Iona)

7.    Thomas Awad (Penn)

8.    Golby Gilbert (Washington)

9.    Vegard Oelstad (OKST)

10. Morgan Pearson (Colorado)

11. Ryan Walling (Mississippi)

12. Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)

10000

Oh man!! Hereeeee we go. Haven’t been this hype for a 10k since 2012 Olympics tbh. King Ches coming off injury against Futsum and Murphy! What a crew. And i don’t want to take away from the battle sure to be had by Vargas, Peterson, Green, Thompson, Bennie, and company behind them.

Just for my own fun, and probably a loss in this prediction contest:

1.    Futsum Zienasellassie (NAU)

2.    Edward Cheserek (Oregon)

3.    Pierce Murphy (Colorado)

4.    Luis Vargas (NC State)

5.    Jonathan Green (Georgetown)

6.    Jacob Thomson (Kentucky)

7.    Erik Peterson (Butler)

8.    Lawrence Kipkoech (Campbell)

9.    Reid Buchanan (Portland)

10. Colin Bennie (Syracuse)

11. Shaun Thompson (Duke)
12. Tyler King (Washington)

Rock Meets Train: Mile Rankings

Train: I often consider Kevin Dare the “mid-point” of the indoor season and it’s typical a reasonable time to start putting together some rankings on the different events. To do this, I’ve decided to get the original dream team back together and reached out to ForrestCRN of PA Don’t Play to get a google doc conversation going.

We’ll start with a little break down on the mile. Sam Ritz is dominating the event so far, with the state lead by roughly 10 seconds. This is a lot like Russell in 2014, seems like a time trail for the state record is in play with a double looming. What are some of your early thoughts on the mile?

CRN: The Mile seems to be in a similar place to last season: we’ve got a clear front runner and a slowly developing class of runners behind that could make for a special race. Last year we had 4:20.5 take 8th place! It seems a bit out of no where, but lets look at some of the candidates behind Ritz who could really mix things up -- Billy McDevitt and Mike Kolor have both run 4:23 in the mile this season and are looking like some of the stronger runners in the state. Last season Ryan Grace ran 4:25 at Kevin Dare and ran 4:20 at the state meet (for some context -- Kyle Shinn just ran 4:25...). I think there is no question that both of these runners will be in the event. Then there is the question of Kevin James. I’m in the opinion that James will run the Mile/DMR double similar to Ross Wilson did last season. He’s such a team oriented runner. But speaking of top runners in the Mile/3k, Train what are you thoughts on runners such as Paul Power and Jake Brophy?


Train: That’s the biggest question for me right now: trying to figure what the plan is for these guys. There is a crop of studs like Marston, Dahl, Brophy, Webb and James (and some under the radar guys like Wills, Hanna, Arita, Maguire) who have serious potential to place well in the 3k, but also have relay duties looming on the back end of the meet. That’s a ton of guys who are facing some seriously tough choices. Believe it or not, I think the 3k-4x8 double is a bit more doable than the 3k-anchor the DMR double (which I think is incredibly difficult). It’s less rest, but the 3k and 800m are different enough events that I think it’s easier to do.

I’m currently leaning towards Brophy in the 3k (sacrificed for team last outdoors, top returner this year), but after that I’m not sure I see any of this crew jumping in the event (and Brophy is borderline obviously). It seems like Marston and Conestoga have been training very DMR specific which means the 3k doesn’t make a ton of sense. CRs South needs to be as fresh as possible in my eyes and Arita can still have a ton of success in the mile. I’m leaning towards a completely fresh GFS DMR at this point and I think Malvern Prep throws their horses in the mile because they have a little extra something to prove this year on the relay.

The 3k is in play for James and Webb. I still think that James can win a state title in the mile by season’s end (even over Ritz), but running 8:40 and then 4:26 probably puts doubts in your mile capabilities. Plus the team just dropped a solid 4x800m team and they have let James pursue the individual events for the past two years while saving their DMR for nationals. As for Webb, he can pull of the 3k-4x8 double (he’s done in the past two years in track), it’s just a matter of how confident Pennsbury feels in what I expect to be a loaded 4x8.

Power really makes things interesting here. He’s running a lot of Mile races and working on his speed. He could be a medalist in the mile, but if he goes fresh in the 3k there may even be a chance he could win with so many top guys potentially dropping out. What do you see Power doing going ahead? And who are your sleepers for the potential medal spots for the mile?

ForrestCRN: Right now I see Paul Power in a similar position to Max Norris. Obviously Norris was strong and his XC season ended a bit strong (although Power’s 14th place at Regionals shouldn’t totally be over-looked). His 4:24 mile really blew me away and his 8:55 early season 3k time is something that he could probably blow away right now. If James and Webb do choose the 3k/4x800 double things will become more complicated for him, but I think he’s one of the front runners and almost a lock for a place in the top 5. All of this being said, just to be explicit, I believe Paul Power will run the 3k totally fresh. The mile does seem like a good event for him, but with so many question marks elsewhere I think this is the best race for him.

Another potential candidate for the 3k/4x8 double that we haven’t talked about is Jake Brophy. He’s been sparse on racing individual events and I’m not sure where to place him either right now. I’d love to see him, James, and Webb battle it out in the 3k only to return for a leg in a relay. Webb I think is a shoe-in for this double. We’ve see him complete it very successfully before (twice outdoors) and he seems to be in great shape so far this season. James seems more likely to do the Mile/DMR double to me. He’s such a team oriented runner that I think he’d sacrifice his individual goals for a DMR/4x8 team (depending on what seems best). His team isn’t the strongest behind him and he will be able to make the biggest impact on the mile leg, since it’s more his distance and he’d be the top anchor for any team (unless Dahl drops something big or Jaxson comes out of the wood works, but lets not get into that now). James reminds me a lot of Ross Wilson in terms of mindset, so that’s where I see him going.

That being said about James I’ll jump into the potential Mile field. Ritz and James should be up front and if Jaxson Hoey comes back he might be able to join them (but again too much speculation to talk about). I think Nick Dahl will follow for the mile/DMR double with James. I was going to write about John Daly having a potential breakout race, but that seems stupid now considering he split… 4:17?!? They went 10:29 in the DMR!! Are you kidding me St. Joes Prep?? They had an extremely underrated 4x8 last season and Daly has really stepped up his game on the track. I believe that’d be a 7 to 8 second PR for him, although a split, that’s still crazy. Reminds me of the 4:12 nationals race that Belfatto had. If Daly can drop something ~4:20 in an open race in the next few weeks he’ll be one of the medal favorites as well. Two more candidates for the Mile/DMR double are the Malvern Prep boys Billy McDevitt and Colin Wills. Wills split a strong 3:13/14 at Yale and could be a medal sleeper for Malvern Prep, but I think that they will hold him out to be fresh in order to try and win the title. That being said I think McDevitt will double. He’s got the strength to run 8:45ish in my opinion, so I think he can run approximately two 4:20’s within a few hours. It’ll be tough, but he’s capable.


Sappey will be an interesting runner to follow in the coming weeks. He has run solid, but nothing too amazing following his breakout XC season, but I think he puts down something more 3k-esk in the next few weeks, but I would like to see DTW stack a DMR at MoC’s.

I believe Alex Milligan will opt for the 800 instead of the mile, but I do think he’d be capable of a 4:24ish by season’s end. But I think he’ll place 7th or 8th in the open 800. Diestelow seems to be focusing solely on the mile and hopefully this season things will come together for him. He always seems to be on the verge of a breakout when he gets injured, but I’m hoping we see him run around 4:23 at states, which could certainly be a medal time this season.

Kolor is another one of my favorite guys and could be the best Miler from out west this indoor season with Jeff Van Kooten still recovering from his late season XC injury. Kolor made very steady improvement from indoors to outdoors last season and he had a fantastic end of his XC season. Kolor is still only a junior and I could see him going as low as 4:20 indoors. I speculate he’ll be more likely to hit a 4:22, but I have no doubt we will see this young man on the medal stand.

There are 4 more boys I would like to mention -- ‘Stoga’s Murray/Marston combo and the combo from CR South MaGuire/Hanna. With Killian Nelson’s 2:00.09 this team’s DMR is looking very, very strong. I’d love to see them totally fresh and they’re a team centered group. I could very well see them taking this route, but the other chance is that Murray will double the Mile/1200 and Marston will double the Mile/Mile. Murray has looked fantastic this season and I bet he could double very well. Marston ran 15:40 at Hershey and that type of strength could also lead him to a 4:25/4:25 double. Chris Campbell for example ran 4:18 in the open and came back in a 4:17.9 split in the DMR (and he leaned at the 1600m line, which lost him 2nd place). Marston right around Campbell in my opinion in terms of XC runners, and although he doesn’t have Campbells speed he does have his strength (like Wilson as well) and that leads to very even doubles. As for CR South I think they will running the 4x8. They seem to be developing into a North Penn like squad. We shall see at the end of the season, because to me they stack up the best in the DMR. If that is the case I could see Hanna doubling and having MaGuire stay fresh. If they go for the 4x8 then they’ll probably keep everyone fresh or have someone double back from the open 800.

Is there anyone other than Kolor or Van Kooten that you see from out west mixing it up this indoor season in the Mile? NA has yet to open up, but I think we’ll see McGoey and Wharrey running the 3k. Also, do you think that Ritz could get the 4:12.61 Meet Record from Paul Springer? Tony Russell showed just how difficult that time is this past season when he ran 4:12.69 at the state meet.

Train: The West is really tricky to judge because we have seen so little racing from those guys thus far. Most are just getting started and finding momentum. I think Scott Seel’s early win is encouraging. A 4:35 on a tough to pace track is an excellent time for your first race of the year. He has an excellent crop of teammates to train with as well (but I agree I expect Wharrey and McGoey to pursue the 3k). To be fair, Gil and Steiner both chose the mile as a Junior and Senior respectively (and both did quite well) so it’s not a lock McGoey stays 3k, but I’d be surprised by migration.

I feel like many of the best guys out West are thinking 3k (NA, Winchester Thurston, etc), but if Todd Gunzenhauser opts to come down, he is running very well. He has already run 4:33 and 9:00, strong marks in low key meets. I also think Jacob Heinauer of North Hills could be in the mix if chooses to come down from the 3000. Also keep an eye on Noah Smith of Ringgold as a sleeper and maybe Elias Graca will try his hand at a fast mile after his excellent cross season.

As for Ritz, that's a tricky question. Based on what he has run so far, he's in shape to challenge the record (and maybe do something historic in the 1k this weekend). However, Ritz will have to be careful with his pacing at states. If he guns things out in 60, I think he will struggle to come home, racing all alone out front (somewhat like Russell last year). But if he stays within himself for 800m, takes things out in 2:10ish and then closes, it's hard to imagine him being far away. He would really benefit from some extra help (James, Brophy or someone else rising to challenge). Keep in mind when Springer ran that record he was racing Millrose Champ Jason Weller. He also split around 60 for the final 400m after a relaxed opening quarter.

I think Ritz is the #1 guy in this field right now. But it doesn't mean we can't get some rankings! Here is my top 8 as of right now (based on who I think is running in):
1. Sam Ritz
2. Billy McDevitt
3. Jake Brophy (as of now he doesn't have a 3k qualifier so he lands here)
4. Mike Kolor
5. John Daly
6. Kyle Shinn
7. Brian Arita
8. Alex Milligan

Wills, Diestelow, and Hanna were among my toughest exclusions. How about your rankings?

ForrestCRN: I’m really hoping Gunzenhauser runs another Mile in the coming weeks. He’s one of my sleeper picks to make top 12. I think that Ritz will get the win, but I do hope that he runs a smart race like Willig did a few years ago. That being said here are my rankings for the top 8:
1. Sam Ritz
2. Kevin James
3. Billy McDevitt
4. Jake Brophy
5. Mike Kolor
6. John Daly
7. Eric Diestelow
8. Kyle Shinn

My just missed are PJ Murray, Brian Arita, and Alex Milligan in that order (Although I see Milligan choosing the 800) and if that is the case my 3rd guy would be Wills.