Post-District Takeaways: District 3

by Blake Behney

Districts offered us some exciting action across the state, and D3 was no exception. Here are some things that stood out to me after saturday’s meet at Big Spring.


Noah Affolder Looks Invincible
No wisdom teeth, no problem for Noah Affolder. The Herd senior has passed every test with flying colors this season and the story was no different this time around. His winning time of 15:17 was a new course record by 10+ seconds and he did it with uncanny ease. In his post-race interview, he said that his first two miles were around 10:05 before he dropped the hammer and ran away with it. Affolder says his goal is a national title, but that he also wants the individual and team titles in Hershey next weekend. We’ll get to the team race in a bit, but it seems inevitable that he’ll have that individual gold hanging from his neck.


Wisner Comes Through in the Clutch
Carlisle put together a strong showing, winning the district title with 106 points, 46 points ahead of second place Lower Dauphin. As the case has been all season, the Herd’s top 3 led the way with some really strong efforts. After Noah’s victory, Sam Affolder came in 4th at 15:47 with Isaac Kole finishing closely behind him in 6th at 15:51. However, the story of the meet for Carlisle was #4 man Jack Wisner, who ran a gutsy race to finish 24th in a big PR of 16:24. The Big Spring course is no joke, and neither is that time.  It has to be comforting for the Herd to see another piece of the puzzle coming together at the perfect time. Before the season I thought Wisner would be a little closer to Kole and that he’d be a potential medal threat at states. His season up to districts seemed a little underwhelming until word came out that he was a little banged up. It seems he’s finally back on track, but the question of whether the Herd still have the components to take down CRN’s pack (and the other team title threats) still looms. States are gonna be fun.


And the Final State Berth Goes to… Manheim Central?
I’m just gonna come out and say that I completely underestimated Manheim Central and that they weren’t really on my radar in terms of state qualifying standards. I wasn’t really familiar with their team besides Cole Sunderland, who I considered to be more of an 800 specialist. Well, he proved me wrong by displaying his versatility, along with the rest of their squad this past weekend. The Barons put 4 guys under 17 at a tough course and beat out perennial powers like CV, Hershey, and league rival Hempfield for the final state berth. Color me impressed. And they proved their win at LLs was no fluke either.


4-Peats Everywhere
The team battle in the smaller classifications was the same story as the previous 3 years: York Suburban winning in AA and Camp Hill winning A. Suburban’s entire top 5 medaled individually, led by Bryce Ohl and Jarrett Raudenski’s 2-3 finish. Even with senior Peter Wagner having a bit of an off day, they still looked dominant and like they belong in the tier of state title contenders with Greensburg Salem, Harbor Creek, Grove City, and Dallas. As for Camp Hill, the Lions scored a measly 35 points to run away with their 4th straight title. Ian Gabig led them in 3rd place overall with Dan Shank and Pat Dorsey also grabbing medals, finishing 5th and 10th. I’m not really sure what to expect of the Lions’ at states. Given their situation with a number of dual-sport athletes, it’s tough to get a read on them during the regular season. One thing I am sure of is Coach Haywood having them ready to go at states. As we saw last year, he’s sort of an expert at that kind of thing.


Can Anybody Stop Joe Cullen?
Another weekend, another W for Joe Cullen. I’ve already raved about this kid, but he just keeps on winning. There’s only been one race this year that he hasn’t won, which was Foundation where he finished second. Cullen took control of this race from the start and held off the Suburban boys for the win. I’m boldly slotting him for a top 5 finish at states at the moment considering he ran 16:30 at Hershey earlier this season and has consistently come up big in the clutch. Also, Wyo freshman Ben Kuhn nabbed the final medal in AA, running 17:18. Future stud alert. Overall, it was a good day for Wyo who looks like they could be a real threat to contend for an AA state title in the near future.


Brenden Who?
The biggest upset of the day in my opinion occurred in Class A. I’m pretty sure just about everyone had Ian Gabig from Camp Hill winning this one. There were some other contenders, like Morgan Morrison, Caleb Sneller, and Dan Shank, but it was going to take the races of their lives to beat Gabig. Coincidentally, a couple guys ran the races of their lives. The eventual victor was someone who I didn’t even know ran cross country or was even in Class A: Brenden Miller of Upper Dauphin. I remembered racing him on the track last spring at districts where he ran 4:36 in the 1600 and 10 flat for 3200, but this race was clearly a huge fitness breakthrough for him. His winning time of 16:29 would’ve won AA and put him in the top 30 for AAA. For comparison, Will Greene from Delone Catholic ran 16:27 here last year for second place and went on to finish 8th at states. So, I’m buying Miller’s chances as a state medalist with a ton of upside. Sneller ran a huge PR for the course (16:33) to take second ahead of Gabig (16:46) who still ran a great race despite not getting the result he wanted. Both guys have a great chance at grabbing medals at states and Gabig, who has been a little banged up, has top 10 potential if healthy. An under-the-radar effort in this race came from Morgan Morrison. The West Shore Christian senior PR’d in 17:01 for 4th place, and his improvement in recent weeks has made him a smart sleeper pick for a state medal. Overall, I feel like Class A really showed out this year and hope they can put that on display at states.


Feel free to offer some states-related discussion and predictions in the comments below.

Moving Up: D3's Breakout Athletes

by Blake Behney

Districts are right around the corner, and District 3 is loaded with guys who have had breakout seasons. These are some guys who, in my opinion, have made the leap from good to great this season. Let me know if I missed anyone in the comments below.

Joe Cullen - Junior, Wyomissing (AA)
As just a junior, Cullen has already demonstrated his acumen on the oval. A 1:54 4x8 split in the state finals to go along with a 4:26 full mile and multiple low 50s splits in the 4x4 would be exceptional for anyone, but Cullen did it as just a sophomore this past spring. Previously, his XC credentials were inferior to his track times, but this season he’s flipped the script and tore up on the trails. His coming out party was PTXC, where he won the blue race and defeated a very game opponent in Red Land’s Nate Romberger. Then at Foundation, Cullen took it a step further, outkicking last year’s AA 8th place medalist Aaron Pfeil, a Top 50 member who’s having an exceptional season in his own right. Last week he won the Berks County league meet in 16:39. Right now, Cullen looks like the favorite for the District 3 AA title and a surefire state medalist with definite top 10 potential. With speed that’s arguably the best in AA right now, watch for Cullen to use his devastating kick early and often this postseason.


Alex Tomasko - Senior,  Mechanicsburg (AAA)
While teammate Morgan Cupp has grabbed the headlines in the past, Tomasko has really stepped up this season and established himself as a state medal contender on a Mechanicsburg team that could make some noise at states (if they qualify, D3 is loaded). He’s always been talented, but this past spring is when he really broke out, running 4:21 and 9:35 as a junior. I thought that would translate to the trails, but I never thought he’d run 15:37 at Paul Short or place 5th at Mid Penns (ahead of his teammate Cupp). Also, he added a another sub-16 mark at Carlisle, running 15:51. He’s proved me wrong all season, so now I’m officially hopping on the Tomasko train.


Ian Gabig - Senior, Camp Hill (A)
After serving as the #3 man on CH’s state championship team last year and finishing painfully close to a state medal (he was 26th), Gabig is back with a vengeance this fall. This spring was the beginning of his breakout when he displayed his mid-distance chops as a member of CH’s 4x8 and 4x4, which both medaled at states. His 1:58 and 52 low splits were crucial to the Lion’s grabbing some hardware. Additionally, he ran the 1200 leg on their DMR at New Balance Nationals. This fall, he didn’t wait long to make his presence known, finishing 3rd at Big Valley opening weekend with a 36 second PR of 16:21. He also won the AA/A race at Big Spring and, although he got out a bit too fast,  held on and placed 6th in the A race at Foundation. Additionally, he was the top PA finisher at Gettysburg with another sub-16:30 mark. Despite not running at Mid Penns, Gabig looks primed for a district title and top 10 finish at states.


Andrew Sullivan - Junior, Hershey (AAA)
Given Mike Morris’ struggles, the pressure was on for someone else to step up and keep the Trojans competitive. Enter Andrew Sullivan. After not running XC at all in high school, Sullivan offered us a glimpse of his potential during track, running 4:21 and 9:35. He didn’t have an exceptional showing at PTXC which left some doubt in my mind about whether he was ready for the trails, but responded in a big way by dropping a 15:54 at Carlisle and finishing in the top 20 overall. He also added an 8th place finish at Mid Penns last week, proving that his Carlisle race was no fluke. Given his rapid rate of improvement, Sullivan grabbing a medal at states would not surprise me at all.


Jared Giannascoli - Junior, Lower Dauphin (AAA)
It’s not often that your #3 is a 15:50s guy, but that’s the situation for Giannascoli. LD looks poised to make an impact at the state level this November and the junior is a huge reason why. After a spring season that saw him have several clutch runs as the anchor of the Falcons’ state-qualifying 4x8, Giannascoli has taken it up another notch this fall. He was already an exceptional talent, especially as just a sophomore last year, but a 15:52 at Carlisle signaled his transition to the district’s elite. A 16:20 at Big Spring proved to me that he’s poised for a top 10 finish at districts and potential medal run at states. Plus, Lower Dauphin is outstanding at peaking for this time of year, which swings even more in the junior’s favor.


Isaac Kole - Senior, Carlisle (AAA)
Giannascoli is among the best #3 runners in the state. However, I’m ready to give the title of best #3 to Isaac Kole for now. Kole and the Affolders complete a triumvirate that is unmatched across PA, and the much of the Thundering Herd’s state title chances rest on Kole. He was an above average guy last cross season but stepped it up on the oval and displayed range from 1:57 to 9:35. And it seems the arrival of the Affolders has lit a fire under him because he’s been absolutely crushing it this fall. His run a PTXC was quite good, but a 15:50 at Carlisle put everyone on notice. At Mid Penns, he ran what I consider to be the best race of his life, putting a bow on a 1-2-4 finish for Carlisle with a 16 flat at Big Spring, which is a hell of a time considering that 2 years ago, that would’ve been a course record. Personally, I don’t foresee a scenario where Kole misses out on a medal at states. He’s been extremely consistent so far and I don’t see any reason why that wouldn’t continue. Plus, he’s always got those two no-names ahead of him to chase.


Just missed the cut: Chad Long - Junior, Bermudian Springs (AA), Nate Romberger, Senior, Red Land (AAA), Nick Norton - Senior, Hempfield (AAA), Christian Groff - Junior, Hempfield (AAA), Colton Cassel - Senior, Lower Dauphin (AAA)

The Streak: District Dominance

By Blake Behney

For as long as I’ve followed PAHS cross country, there’s been one constant: District 1 and District 7 teams on top of the podium at AAA states. In fact, you have to go all the way back to Cedar Cliff’s state title in 2003 to find the last time a school outside of District 1 or 7 won Class AAA. The monopoly D1 and D7 have on large-school distance running hasn’t had a negative impact on the sport at all, in fact their dominance has made this season even more interesting in my opinion. That’s because for the first time in recent memory, many pundits are pegging a team outside of the Big 2 to win the AAA state title (Carlisle).

The 13 year stranglehold D1 and D7 have had on the state is an impressive feat that not many people seem to be talking about. Additionally, the entire storyline of an outside team ending the streak is something that I have yet to see anything written about. But I feel like the potential for something like this to happen should have everybody talking. And while they might not seem like one initially, Carlisle is definitely an underdog. This is a program that, despite their reputation, surprisingly has never won a team title or had an individual champ at cross country states in school history. They always seem to put it together on the track, but being the top team on the trails has eluded them. And don’t let their big names up front fool you; the Herd’s place among state title favorites this fall is definitely uncharted territory.  

This post isn’t meant to make you guys support Carlisle, its purpose to make everyone aware of a narrative that I believe should be receiving more attention. The streak is something that’s extremely impressive in this day and age of distance running, and the fact that it could potentially end this fall adds another exciting element to a state championship race that already looks like it could be one of the best in recent memory. So buckle up and prepare for the ride.

Preseason State Team Rankings: Class AAA

By Blake Behney

I apologize for the delay in the rankings, I just got to school and was quite busy with getting settled. But now I present what you've all been waiting for: the AAA rankings.

5. LaSalle College

Every team on this list is gonna have great depth. Other than CRN (we’ll get to them in a bit), LaSalle probably has the best depth out of the teams on this list. So why are they only #5? Well, they seemingly don’t have a big time front runner like some other teams. Nevertheless, they had 7 guys under 17 last year at states and should do the same thing this time around. The only question left is if anyone will make a quantum leap and become a surefire state medalist? As of now, Evan Addison and Stephen Paul look to do just that, especially after having exemplary track seasons last spring.

4. Downingtown West

No team on this list was hit harder by departures from last season than West. Losing both Hoeys, Sappey, and Ryherd makes West’s chances look somewhat bleak on paper. However, they’ve got a terrific coach and always seem to have guys, Chase Semanyk this past spring for example, who make giant leaps in fitness in relatively surprising fashion. This is more of a gut pick, but I have faith that Top 50 members Ryan Barton and Jake O’Neill lead West to strong performances throughout the fall.

3. North Allegheny

The same argument for West’s ranking can also be applied to North Allegheny, except NA’s recent track record is superior. The past 3 seasons have seen them place in the top 3 at states despite losing their top runner from the season before (generally they’ve lost more than just their #1; as many 3 top guys have graduated on average). NA has proven time after time that, even if they get hit hard by graduation, they’re still going to remain among the state’s elite. They truly only have one question mark entering the fall: which team member is going to make the huge fitness jump and be this year’s Marc Migliozzi?

2. Council Rock North  

After last season’s state meet all it took was a glance at the results to see who the team to beat was for next season. CRN placed 5th, but returns their entire top 6 for this year and are led by Top 50 members Bryan Keller and Ryan Campbell. Although the transfer of the Affolders to Carlisle complicated things, they still have all of the pieces to win a state championship: stud frontrunners, a tight spread, and championship experience. If the season goes smoothly, then expect to see North battling for state gold this November at Parkview.

1. Carlisle

I’m not going to drone on about the Affolder’s times or how they stack up against the rest of state because I’ve already done that. What I am going to do is talk about the other guys that are responsible for making the Herd’s state title dreams come to fruition. Noah has to be considered the favorite for individual state gold at this point with Sam right behind him. In my mind these two are both top 5 locks barring disaster. What makes this team so interesting are Isaac Kole, Jack Wisner, and Max Fiorentino. Kole is one of the most underrated guys in the state (his exclusion from the Top 50 proves that) and has run sub-2 in the 800, sub-4:30 in the 1600, and sub-9:40 in the 3200. His cross credentials aren’t as strong because this spring was his breakout season. Jack Wisner was the top freshman in AAA last season at states and, like Kole, only improved throughout the winter and spring, running 1:57 and 4:30. Given his pedigree and another summer of training, there’s no telling what this kid could do on the grass this fall. And finally, Fiorentino ran 17:26 at states last season and performed well on the track as part of Carlisle’s 4x8 that qualified for NBN. A stress reaction caused him to miss the early part of summer training but he is healthy now. This Carlisle team has a lot to prove, but if they perform up to the level that they’re capable of, which Coach Boardman’s teams almost always do, then they’ll be on top of the podium quite a bit this fall.

Watch List: Spring Ford (young team that barely missed qualifying for States out of District 1 last season. Return 6 of their top 7 and are led by 3 rising juniors.) Cardinal O’Hara (consistent program that performs well time after time. Lost Rob Morro to graduation but return the rest of their top 5 from last season.) Central Bucks West (graduated Iatarola and Fortna but are one of the deepest teams in the state. Not sure if they can replace that firepower up front but should perform well nonetheless.)

Preseason State Team Rankings: Class AA

By Blake Behney

Here’s the Class AA installment of the preseason state rankings. Enjoy.

5. Knoch

After an impressive 4th place finish at last year’s state meet, I’m not predicting Knoch to regress too much this coming season. They lose their #3, #6, and #7 guys, but return a studly top two of Max Freyermuth and John Ejzak. Freyermuth had an especially notable state meet last season, finishing 13th overall in 16:35 and grabbing Knoch’s first XC state medal ever in the process. Although he didn’t have a great spring (although he was coming off of wrestling, which could result in him being a bit banged up), look for him to contend for another medal this time around. Also, Ejzak ran 17:04 at states last season and was only about 10 seconds off of grabbing a medal. Expect that to change as well. Having them here may be a stretch, but another team needs to step up and earn this spot once the season starts.

4. Grove City

Grove City is an interesting team to me because, while this can be said for many teams, I truly don’t know what their ceiling could be. Much of that has to do with their front runner, Jonah Powell. For more info on Powell, check out the PA HS Top 50 where he resides at #48. He is already in line to become one of the better runners in GC history if he continues his ascent. I would not be surprised if he finished in the top 10 at states. Plus, their #2 Braydon Pyle returns and definitely could medal after missing out by 6 seconds last year. Given their two low sticks, plus the fact that they return 6 of their top 7 from last year’s squad, GC looks like a true threat as a relative wildcard in Class AA. Oh, and they’ve got a great coach who knows how to prepare his athletes for the big stage.

3. South Fayette

South Fayette is a state contender in large part due to their dynamic duo up front. Top 50 members Aaron Pfeil and Sam Snodgrass led the Lions to a 6th place finish at states a year ago, grabbing top 15 medals in the process. Also, both had outstanding track seasons that saw Snodgrass run 4:28 for 1600 and Pfeil with a 9:39 in the 3200. Although Pfeil was 8th a season ago to Snodgrass’s 12th, I expect Snodgrass to be their #1 this time around due to the fact that he’s making the all-important sophomore to junior jump. While you can expect those two to mix it up in the front of races, the big reason that I like Fayette’s chances is that they return everyone except their #6 and they’re all making the sophomore to junior jump (minus Pfeil). If the 3-7 guys can step it up, then the Lions could be extremely dangerous in the AA team race.

2. York Suburban

Suburban looks to make this their third consecutive season finishing in the top 2 at states. After winning the title in 2014, they really impressed with a runner up finish to Dallas (more on them in a bit) last season. Suburban was minutes away from title #2 before Dallas slipped in and took it right out from under them. Suburban actually had a faster average team pace than Dallas and proved last season that they could compete at a high level despite losing their front runner from the season before (Brady Wilt). So, even with Donovan Mears heading off to Temple, Suburban should be considered a real threat this season. They could have as many as 2 medalists at states (Ohl and Raudensky are the most likely candidates) and always have a tight spread. They’re also extremely well-coached and seem to pull guys who run sub-18 at states out of nowhere. That’s a recipe for success.

1. Dallas

Although I raved about Suburban, Dallas has to be considered the team to beat in AA. The defending state champions return everyone except their #6 from states last season and, on paper, should be nearly invincible this time around. My favorite part of this Dallas team is their youth. With only one senior in their projected top 5, this season might not even be the peak of what this squad is capable of. They had two freshmen run 17:35 and 17:40 at states last season and were led by Top 50 member Jack Zardecki and Adam Borton, sophomores who both ran sub-17 at Parkview at the same meet. Unless disaster occurs or another team has some sort of surprise up their sleeve, then I foresee Dallas occupying this spot for a while and having as many as 5 guys under 17 at Parkview this November. .

Watch List: Harbor Creek (young team who returns 6 of their top 7. Great 4x8 this spring and are led by a couple stud rising sophomores.) Berwick (7th at states a year ago after coming out of a loaded District 2. Returns everyone except their #2.)

Preseason State Team Rankings: Class A

By Blake Behney

Although you may have forgotten in the midst of Olympic excitement, HS cross country is upon us. Here are the initial Class A state rankings. Enjoy.

Class A

5. Winchester Thurston

Two years ago WT shocked most running fans when they came out of nowhere to dominate the state meet. Thurston was so impressive that many experts were ready to hand them the 2015 state title too. Disappointedly for them, the Bears’ 2015 season was a perfect example of “that’s why we run the races.” Now, following the graduation of Will Loevner, Thurston will look to continue on being led by Top 50 stars Ben Littman and Tristan Forsythe. Both runners should contenders after impressive spring seasons that saw them both medal in distance events at states (Littman in the 3200, Forsythe in the 1600) along with their state medals from last fall. Thurston’s only question mark is filling in the pieces behind their front runners. But, with a young roster and great coaching, that much seems likely.

4. Camp Hill

Last year’s state champions lost two medalists to graduation, but that does not mean they should be overlooked. Presumed #1 Ian Gabig should be a virtual lock to medal, and Dan Shank made strides this spring that prove he should contend for a medal barring unforeseen circumstances. Behind those two, the Lions have established veteran/senior Pat Dorsey, who had an impressive spring, and soccer player Matt Little, who looks to be primed for a breakout fall. If they can find a legit 5th guy, the Lions are definitely a threat to make some noise.

3. Northeast Bradford

For as long as Class A has existed, there’s been one constant: Bradford on top of the podium or extremely close. The past four seasons Bradford has won the state title (2012) or finished 3rd (2013,14, and 15). Look for that trend to continue this season. They lose their #1 and sole state medalist in Levi Upham, but that shouldn’t be cause for concern. Garrett Smith barely missed out on a state medal last season and returns to lead Bradford’s pack. Bradford’s style has always been about pack running, and with another summer of training that pack should look even more formidable. Even though they may not have many standout individuals returning besides Smith, it’s hard to bet against a team as consistent as Bradford.

2. Seneca

Seneca may have finished just 5th at the state meet a year ago, but their breakthrough spring has me thinking that they’re ready to make the jump into the top tier of Class A teams. After winning the Class AA 4x8 state title, they’ll look translate their success on the oval to the grass. I understand that 800 speed may not always necessarily translate to a 5k on grass, but these guys also performed admirably in longer events to warrant their initial ranking in my mind. With nearly all of their top 7 from last year’s meet (their #6 was a senior) and the Myers twins up front, keep an eye out for Seneca.

1. Sewickley Academy

Last year’s state runner-ups are looking to make this season their revenge tour. Sewickley may have well won the state title if not for a freak injury to #2 runner Ben Clouse. They return their entire top 7, including a top 3 of returning state champ Griffin Mackey, Clouse, and frosh state medalist Henry Meakem that, on paper, is unmatched in Class A. If Sewickley can survive the WPIAL and avoid anymore freak injuries, they’ll most likely find themselves on top of the state podium at Parkview this November.

   

Watch List: Montrose (moves down from Class AA last season. Young team that finished 3rd in a loaded District 2 AA behind eventual state champs Dallas and 7th place Berwick. Return their entire top 7 and averaged 17:55 on a tough D2 course similar to states.) Elk County Catholic (finished 6th at states last year and returns much of their top 7.)

TheRoundHouse: Another Episode

TheRoundHouse is back! Let's talk track

XC Debut: District 3 Preview

by Blake Behney

Hello everyone. Given that this is my first post, I thought I’d stick to writing about what I know best: District 3. Here is my take on what is expected to be an interesting season of cross country in one of the state’s more formidable districts. Something to keep in mind while reading this is that I don’t just judge the performances of these athletes based on cross country. Their performances this past track season play a significant role in my evaluation.

Class A

Individual
With last year’s top 3 finishers having graduated, the individual district title is seemingly Ian Gabig of Camp Hill’s for the taking. He is the top returner from last year’s district race (and the only returner to have broken 17 minutes) and made huge strides this past spring as part of CH’s state medaling 4x8 and 4x4. Gabig split 1:58 in the state final to go along with a 52 second 4x4 leg. Given the range he’s demonstrated, it’s easy to think that with continued, consistent training he’ll do just fine and grab his first individual cross country state medal (he finished in the dreaded 26th spot at last year’s state meet). Besides Gabig, the other most likely contenders seem to be York Catholic’s Evan Schlosser (who apparently does not run track) and Camp Hill’s Dan Shank. Don’t be surprised if the race comes down to Shank and Gabig battling it out for district gold. Shank has proven himself as Gabig’s long distance counterpart. He ran 2 flat in the 800 this year and 4:40 for the 1600 the only time he ran a mile all season (at a dual meet). I watched him hang with XC state medalist Will Greene for much of the 3200 at last season’s Arctic Blast Invite as well. Having been teammates with both of them for the past couple of years, I know that these guys are willing to scrap and compete with each other, which should make for an interesting race.

More Runners To Watch: Someone to keep an eye is Morgan Morrison from West Shore Christian. He’s run 4:31 at districts in the 1600 (tantalizing close to qualifying for AA states in track) and low 2:00s for 800. Also, he’s qualified for states individually the past two seasons in XC and, despite never really putting it all together on the grass, could be a threat.

Team

Just like in the individual preview, the team race is all about Camp Hill. I swear this isn’t hometown bias; the fact is that, on paper, the Lions are significantly better than every other team they’re up against. Whether they’ll set the district record for lowest point total for the third straight year in a row is what’s up in the air. Despite losing two really low sticks, the Lions should be just fine with Gabig and Shank leading the charge. Plus, Coach Haywood’s history of helping his athletes drop major time in a relatively quick fashion bodes well for this team’s chances. A runner to keep an eye on is Matt Little. He was their #6 guy last year as a dual-sport athlete who also plays on the soccer team. Little has demonstrated a real natural talent on the grass, and with an increased workload this summer he should definitely surprise some people. As for second place in the team race, it seems like every year Tulpehocken finishes behind the Lions. I foresee that happening this year as well. Disappointedly for them, D3 Class A only offers one state team berth. 

Class AA

Individual
While only the top 3 finishers from last year’s Class A race were seniors, a whopping 7 top finishers moved on since last year’s AA race. That leaves our top returner as Jarrett Raudensky, a rising sophomore from York Suburban. Besides having a great head of hair, Raudensky proved he was pretty great at the running thing too after a 17:09 at states and 2 flat multiple times in the 800 this past track season (although I’m almost certain he ran a sub-2 split while anchoring Suburban’s relay). But, Raudensky is not the top returner based on state finish. That honor goes to his teammate, Bryce Ohl. Ohl proved himself as arguably his team’s best distance runner this spring, running 4:33 for 1600 and 16:44 last season in XC. At this point, these two seem almost interchangeable. But, I would have to give the edge to Ohl at this point given his consistency and the fact that he’s entering his junior year, which is when many runners make their most significant improvement. However, my personal upset pick/runner to keep an eye on comes from Wyomissing. And his name is Joe Cullen. Joe has been an absolute savage on the oval, having run 1:54 while anchoring Wyo’s 4x8 at states and 4:25 for 1600 meters. He also runs a leg on their 4x4. Cullen has great range, and is entering his junior season, which could have him primed for a further breakout this fall. At this point, it’s seemingly all mental for him. And if he can gain that mental edge, then I believe there’s a strong chance that the district title stays in Wyomissing for another year.

More Runners To Watch: These guys may not necessarily be considered “big” names, but they’re all
legit with a lot of potential to improve. Trinity’s Will Bucher was just a freshman last season, but he performed like a seasoned veteran at districts when he led Trinity to a state berth alongside teammate Matt Geisler, a rising senior. Additionally, both runners ran on Trinity’s 4x8 this spring, which placed 9th. Besides those two, Suburban’s Peter Wagner should be in the mix near the front as well.

Team

Although Suburban loses a key low stick with the graduation of Donovan Mears, the Trojans should be just fine when it comes to defending their district team title. Although it won’t be as much of a blowout as the Class A race, Suburban has repeatedly proven that no matter who they have running, they can almost always put together a tight spread and contend for a district title and beyond. As for the rest of the state qualifying spots (Class AA has 3 total), Trinity is the clear-cut second best team. Their core of youngsters, coupled with the fact that they didn’t lose any key guys other than Chase Drawbaugh makes me think that there is no reason that they shouldn’t outperform their performance from this past season. As for our final spot, I’m going to go ahead and predict that it will end up being occupied by Boiling Springs, just like last year. I really wanted to go with Palmyra as a wildcard selection, but BoSprings has a pack that I simply cannot overlook. In all honesty, the Class AA third team spot is extremely wide-open and it’s really hard for me to pick a team.

Class AAA

Individual
Before this preview, I thought that the Class AAA individual title would be the easiest to predict. “Well, nobody from D3 is beating Nathan Henderson” I smugly thought to myself. It hadn’t crossed my mind at that point that Noah and Sam Affolder were transferring to Carlisle and competing in D3 this upcoming fall. That made my preview significantly easier. Look, Henderson is a great talent and will almost certainly run at a major D1 program in college. On the track he boasts PRs of 4:14 for 1600, 8:24 for 3k (converts to roughly 9 minutes flat for a 3200), and a 1:53 800 to boot. Oh, we haven’t even gotten to XC where he owns the district course record at Big Spring with a 15:38 and placed 5th at States with a sub-16 minute mark at Parkview. Despite all of that, there’s no way in my mind that he’ll beat Noah Affolder. Affolder, a Syracuse commit and rising senior, is simply on another level. In XC, he placed 2nd this year at states behind Aidan Tooker, another future Orangeman and an incredible talent in his own right. However, he turned it up a notch at the Foot Locker Northeast Regional meet, which he won in a PR of 15:23. Later he went on to finish 15th in the Foot Locker finals. So, clearly, he’s a notch above Henderson without even taking into account his track credentials. Affolder boasts PR’s of 4:09 for the indoor Mile, 9:06 for 3k Steeple, and to top it all off, an 8:47 3200 which is well under the state record. So, based purely off of PRs, Henderson simply is a tier below Affolder. The wildcard in this situation is the younger Affolder, Sam. He displayed crazy talent as a freshman last season, running 15:48 in XC. I wouldn’t be surprised if he beats Henderson this season, granted he would have to progress a lot, but he is just a rising sophomore. 

More Runners To Watch: Outside of the Affolders and Henderson, District 3 AAA still has some guys who are pretty quick on the trails. Zach Lefever of Ephrata will almost certainly be mixing it up with the top names. Last season’s district runner up missed XC states with an emergency appendectomy, but made up for it in a big way this past track season by placing 6th in the 3200 at states. Expect to see him on the state podium again this fall. As for others, keep an eye on this Mid Penn crew: Morgan Cupp and Alex Tomasko of Mechanicsburg, Kyler Shea and Colten Cassel of Lower Dauphin, and Isaac Kole of Carlisle. All of these guys were either studs on the trails last season or had strong track seasons which should set them up for success this upcoming fall.

Team

Unlike the other classifications, I am predicting that the team title in AAA will not have a repeat champion. I still think Hempfield will qualify for the state meet, but the loss of Justin Yurchak will be tough to overcome. Carlisle is my pick to take the district title. The addition of the Affolders, plus the continued development of guys like Isaac Kole and Jack Wisner have the Herd positioned to win not just the district meet, but potentially the state meet as well. I am also predicting that they will have 4 individual medalists at the district meet in both Affolders, Kole, and Wisner.

As for second place, my pick is Lower Dauphin. Despite finishing just 9th a year ago, two factors make it seem likely that LD will be just fine this time around. First, they return all of their top 7 from last season, including a sick top 3 of Kyler Shea, Colten Cassel, and Jared Giannascoli. Second, their 4x8 nearly broke the 8 minute barrier and qualified for states this past track season (without Cassel or Shea on the relay), which bodes well on the distance side of things. And finally, Coach Butler historically gets the most out of his athletes and knows what it take to compete on the big stage. I have Hempfield taking the 3rd team spot, which means the 4th spot goes to...Mechanicsburg? Yup, Mechanicsburg, the team that finished 12th at last year’s district meet, but returns their entire top 7 and has arguably one of the best top 3’s in the entire district in the form of Morgan Cupp, Alex Tomasko, and Andrew Sulon. After having great track seasons which saw both of them run under 4:30 in the 1600 (Tomasko qualified for states) and make major improvements across the board, both runners look poised to join Cupp among the district’s elite. They also had a freshman, Brendan Knepper, run 17:32 at districts last year and should continue to progress, forming a formidable top 4. Throw in the fact that they consistently have one of the best middle school programs around, and there’s reason to buy in on the Wildcats’ chances.