2016 BIG 12 Predictions

By: Garrett Zatlin

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EDIT (10/27-10:19am): Geberkidane is NOT running at BIG 12's this weekend. Predictions have been adjusted accordingly.

BIG 12's
Finish	Name	University
1	Josh Thompson	Oklahoma State
2	Hassan Abdi	Oklahoma State
3	Kevin Hoyos	Iowa State
4	Thomas Pollard	Iowa State
5	Sylvester Barus	Oklahoma State
6	Toby Hardwick	Iowa State
7	Dylan Blankenbaker	Oklahoma
8	Luis Martinez	Oklahome State
9	Andrew Jordan	Iowa State
10	Josef Andrews	Iowa State
11	Alex Rogers	Texas
12	Robert Uhr	Texas
13	Anthony Armstrong	Oklahoma State
14	Eric Aldritt	Oklahoma
15	Christian Liddell	Oklahome State
16	Connor Hendrickson	Texas
17	Ben Anderson	Iowa
18	Eric Anderson	Baylor
19	Jon Nownes	Iowa State
20	Chris Melgares	Kansas
Team Scores
Projected Finish	Team	ProjectedScore
1	Oklahoma State	29
2	Iowa State	32
3	Texas	99
4	Oklahoma	109

Unsure if running: Jacob Burcham (Oklahoma), Cerake Geberkidane (Oklahoma State), Jacob Pickle (Texas), Dan Curts (Iowa State)

Individual

It's been a roller coaster ride of a season for Oklahoma State as they have overcome hurdle after hurdle. They've had a different top finisher at the two meets they've been to this year and I expect that they will have another one: Josh Thompson.

Thompson has yet to have a bad day and he's run at the front in both races so far this season. Barus has been a bit more inconsistent while Abdi has only had one race under his belt. With Geberkidane out, a field that lacks front-runners, and competition he's familiar with, Thompson could win the 4th BIG 12 title of his career (including track).

Team

I was trying to avoid hopping on the Oklahoma State bandwagon, but once I broke down the score I realized just how strong this team really was. They've got low-sticks at nearly every position and will become even stronger once Geberkidane is plugged back into the lineup next week (hopefully).

Iowa State is an excellent team and I like their chances of making nationals. Unfortunately for them, BIG 12's isn't full of many teams which means that their pack running won't have the same affect as it did at Roy Griak. Without a true ace to lead the way, I don't see the Cyclones pulling off the win.

2016 SEC XC Predictions

By: Garrett Zatlin

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SEC's
Finish	Name	University
1	Antibahs Kosgei	Alabama
2	MJ Erb	Mississippi
3	Franline Tonui	Arkansas
4	Sean Tobin	Mississippi
5	Jacob Thomson	Kentucky
6	Alex George	Arkansas
7	Wes Gallagher	Mississippi
8	Jack Bruce	Akransas
9	Cameron Villareal	Texas A&M
10	Robert Dominiac	Mississippi
11	Austin Dalquist	Arkansas
12	Austin Wells	Texas A&M
13	Bryan Kamau	Georgia
14	Christian Hemysfield	Arkansas
15	Kevin Wyss	Auburn
16	Elliot Farris	Texas A&M
17	Drew White	Missouri
18	Zach Long	Tennessee
19	Ben Young	Kentucky
20	Taylor Caldwell	Mississippi
Team Scores
Projected Finish	Team	Projected Score
1	Arkansas	42
2	Mississippi	43
3	Texas A&M	90

Unsure if running: Andrew Ronoh (Arkansas)

Individual

He may not be the highest ranked runner, but I have a good feeling that Antibahs Kosgei will pull off the win this weekend. Kosgei will be under pressure to defend his title from guys like Tonui, Erb, and Tobin. However, those guys will be under pressure of their own to secure the team title. In a small field like SEC's, they may not be willing to take the risks of burning out late in the race for the pursuit of an individual title. Kosgei, however, does not have the pressure of a team title hanging over his head. He can be as aggressive as he wants in this race and I think that will work out well for him in the end.

Team

Arkansas may be ranked well ahead of Mississippi, but this will certainly be a close race and one of the biggest opportunities for an upset. Arkansas is coming off of a huge runner-up finish at Pre-Nats with a few low-sticks to boast. However, they had issues with their 5th man placing 53rd overall. They may be able to survive a more spread out field like Pre-Nats, but at a smaller meet like SEC's where Ole Miss has a tight pack, Arkansas is vulnerable. 

This race will almost certainly come down to the 5th man. Both Arkansas and Ole Miss will have close-knit running packs without too many other individuals to break up their spread. I may have the Razorbacks getting the win, but don't be surprised to see Mississippi barely pull off the upset. They aren't the same program as last year.

2016 Ivy (Heps) XC Predictions

By: Garrett Zatlin

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Ivy League
Finish	Name	University
1	James Randon	Yale
2	Connor Lundy	Princeton
3	Jack Boyle	Columbia
4	Nick Tuck	Penn
5	Brandon Price	Harvard
6	Brenden Shearn	Penn
7	Dominic Deluca	Cornell
8	Matt Mahoney	Brown
9	Matt Herzig	Dartmouth
10	Nathanial Adams	Dartmouth
11	Matt Mahoney	Brown
12	Daniel Salas	Dartmouth
13	Patrick Hally	Penn
14	James Gowans	Cornell
15	William Paulson	Princeton
16	Noak Kappuilla	Princeton
17	Christopher Luciano	Penn
18	Rob Napolitano	Columbia
19	Spencer Haik	Columbia
20	Connor Horn	Cornell
Team Scores
Projected Finish	Team	Projected Score
1	Penn	74
2	Dartmouth	84
3	Princeton	87
4	Columbia	97

Individual:

We may not get to see Thomas Awad hit the hills this year, but Heps will be just as exciting. The storyline on the individual side will be "Youth vs Experience" as favorites Connor Lundy and James Randon attempt to earn gold.

Lundy is coming off of an outstanding 19th place finish at Wisconsin...as just a freshman. Regardless of his age, his Wisconsin performance is an accomplishment that not even Randon can match on the grass. 

Although, Lundy does have the attractive finish at a big meet, Randon has looked sharp this season by earning wins at small meets and consistently running fast times. He seems to thrive in small fields and has the mile speed to kick down anyone and everyone in the conference. If Randon can stick with Lundy until the end, expect the veteran to find an extra gear and earn the title.

Of course, we can't forget guys like Jack Boyle and Nick Tuck who have both had very solid cross country seasons so far. Don't be surprised if one of them pulls off the upset.

Team

It may sound odd, but Penn actually has a better chance to win the Ivy League title in 2016 than they did with Awad in 2015. Columbia has faltered this season after graduating too many keys names to fight for the title. Princeton could mix it up, but they are young and unproven. Dartmouth, on the other hand, is a legitimate threat to Penn's title hopes. They've got a solid top three and have been on the climb for the past few years. 

Although each team has a few great low-sticks, Penn's depth seems to be a bit more established than Dartmouth's. In a race that is coming down to the 5th man, I'm taking the Quakers.

2016 Mountain West XC Predictions

By: Garrett Zatlin

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Moutain West
Finish	Name	University
1	Jerrell Mock	Colorado State
2	Dillon Maggard	Utah State
3	Yusuke Uchioski	Boise State
4	Grant Fischer	Colorado State
5	Andrew Johnston	Air Force
6	Miler Haller	Boise State
7	Kyle Eller	Air Force
8	Cole Rockhold	Colorado State
9	Jefferson Abbey	Colorado State
10	Eric Hamer	Colorado State
11	Matt Dorsey	Air Force
12	Andrew Rafla	Boise State
13	Colby Wilson	Utah State
14	Chandler Austin	Boise State
15	Jonah Henry	Wyoming
16	Rhys Park	Boise State
17	Carson Hume	Colorado State
18	Jacob Bilvado	Air Force
19	Jose Pina	San Jose State
20	Harry Ewing	Wyoming
Team Scores
Projected Finish	Team	Projected Score
1	Colorado State	32
2	Boise State	51
3	Air Force	63

Unsure if racing: Michael Vennard (Boise State)

Individual

Despite an off day at Wisconsin, Mock is still the heavy favorite to defend his conference title. He won this race last year against similar (and arguably harder) competition. He won Roy Griak and was 2nd place at Washington so it's not absurd to say that he's one of the biggest favorites to win a title this weekend.

After Mock is when the real race starts. Dillon Maggard and Yusuke Uchioski will battle for the runner-up position. Both have been having very similar seasons in terms of success and will look to gain momentum before they head into a pivotal qualifying race at regionals. 

Typically, guys like Jefferson Abbey, Michael Vennard, Andrew Rafla and Kyle Eller are in the conversation for an individual title. But like so many other top names, they have struggled throughout this season. Friday will be the last chance for them to turn around their confidence before heading into regionals to secure an individual spot to nationals.

Team

The Rams haven't been as strong as many have predicted they would be, but that's mainly due to the struggles from Jefferson Abbey. In a smaller and more condensed conference like the Mountain West, CSU's tight group will have a much bigger impact than they typically do. Just look what happened at the Washington Invite. 

Boise State is in a similar situation with regards to their depth, but they aren't as tight as CSU. They also don't have an ace like Jerrell Mock to bring down the score. We also need to keep in mind that Michael Vennard hasn't raced since Roy Griak. If Vennard returns to racing this weekend and recaptures his 2015 fitness, then Colorado State could be in trouble.

Be sure to keep an eye out for Air Force. Although Kyle Eller hasn't been at his best, his teammates have stepped up and kept this team competitive after losing Patrick Corona to graduation.

2016 West Coast XC Predictions

By: Garrett Zatlin

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West Coast
Finish	Name	University
1	Alex Short	San Francisco
2	Nico Montanez	BYU
3	Rory Linkletter	BYU
4	Tim Ball	Portland
5	Jeff Thies	Portland
6	Jonathan Harper	BYU
7	Mitchell Briggs	BYU
8	Brayden McLelland	BYU
9	Stephen Mulhrein	Portland
10	Clayton Young	BYU
11	Ben Alcock	San Francisco
12	Nick Hauger	Portland
13	Caleb Webb	Portland
14	Spencer Hanson	BYU
15	Edward Shepherd	San Francisco
16	Mohammed Aziz	San Francisco
17	Timo Goehler	Portland
18	Gabe Arias-Sheridan	St. Mary's (Cal)
19	Brandon Vientos	Loyola Marymount
20	Brady Johnson	Portland
Team Scores
Projected Finish	Team	Projected Score
1	BYU	26
2	Portland	43
3	San Francisco	69

Unsure if racing: Troy Fraley (Gonzaga)

Individual

It's going to be a very interesting battle between Alex Short and Nico Montanez. Both are ranked among the top 20 in our Etrain rankings after their big races at Pre-Nats and Wisconsin.* Although they are both having breakout seasons, Short has been closer to this competitive level for a while now and this will be his 2nd legitimate shot at earning the individual title. Montanez will most likely do what he has to do in order to secure the team title. If it comes down to the finish, I'm going to take the San Francisco senior.

*Short was 7th at Pre-Nats. Montanez was 9th at Wisconsin.

Team

The team talk in the West Coast Conference is shaping up to be a bit more exciting than in year's past. Both BYU and Portland are top ranked teams in the nation this year and both squads have displayed excellent time-spreads. However, San Francisco is also entering the picture as Alex Short has given life to the Dons throughout this season.

While it may be competitive, I see BYU taking the conference title. They've been dominant all season and have the low-sticks that Portland lacks. However, both squads should be able to hold off the Dons who have some great front-runners of their own, but not quite the depth to keep up with Portland or BYU.