What are your All State teams (top 4 in each event)? What are your deciding criteria (state titles, times, key victories)?
Which performance is the most impressive mark of the year? Which performer has been most impressive this year? Which performance of performer was most surprising to you this year?
What was your favorite race of the year? Which events have provided the most drama or the most "wow" reactions?
Who will the Sixers take at #3? Who should they take?
Any big performances left to come at HS Nationals or Junior Nats?
What's your top 5 for XC next year? Teams and individuals? Top 10?
How much do you love that picture of the Warriors fans? Anywhere near as much as me?
Anyone interested on a write up of the Salazar controversy?
Does the Kyrie injury official sink the Cavs?
Anyone else upset that odds are Peretta, Hockenbury and Brophy will never race each other during this upcoming XC season? And countless other dream matchups will be left to the imagination?
The RJJL investigation may be under way, what's a good place to start? What evidence do we have so far?
Lastly, have you marked your calendars for June 9th and July 12th? How about the NCAA championships? U.S. champs? Monaco? Worlds? Going to be a great summer.
Have at it train station.
Sixers will Russell with the third pick. I am indifferent towards the picture of the warriors fans. The Kyrie injury definitely sinks the Cavs
ReplyDeleteThis is only AAA but I'm guessing
ReplyDelete1. Brophy
2. Hoey
3. Gunzenhauser
4. Henderson
5. Kolor
Hockenbery? Sappy? Seiger?
DeleteNot good with the whole state so I'll just do chesmont top 10
ReplyDelete1. Hoey
2. Sappey
3. Smucker
4. Hoey
5. Maxwell
6. Barton
7. Carmody
8. Hall
9. Ilgenfritz
10. Delvecchio
Keep an eye out for O'Neil from DWest and a deep sleeper in Zatlin from GV.
If I'm correct, did Hall not run Xc last year
DeleteI'm pretty sure he moved to unioville after the XC season
DeleteI think more like:
Delete1. Hoey
2. Sappey
3. Smucker
4. Hoey
5. Barton
6. Maxwell
7. Carmody
8. Hall
9. Ilgenfritz
10. Henderson's #2 TBD - it doesn't matter who, it just will be from Henderson.
Also #3 and #4 could swap, but DWest will be better than Henderson's 2013 team.
You should do like an overall distance runner ranking for the whole 2014-2015 running "year" based on everyone's overall body of work throughout the 3 seasons or something like that
ReplyDeleteBrophy and Hock will dominate AAA and AA. Josh will beat Jaxson at some point in the season, CBW will beat Dwest at either states or districts, Smucker will pull Henderson into now of the 5 spots at districts
ReplyDeleteI agree with most of these predictions. The only one I don't agree with is Smucker taking Henderson to states. There could be 5 teams better than Henderson even in Chesmonts. DWest will certainly beat them and Unionville, Rustin, Bishop Shanahan, West Chester East, and GV all have a legitamate shot at beating Henderson next year. Not to mention at districts, with the likes of CBWest, DWest, And CBEast at the top, it'll be a dogfight for the last two spots.
DeleteI agree with your general logic, but I can't imagine a WCE team that just lost Diestelow beating Henderson. In the rest of D1, I think other than CBW, CB east also has a decent shot. Teams like PB and CRN will always be at the top. My sleeper team is spring ford. Yes they lose Power, but they return 8 guys at 17:30 or faster, 5 of who were froshs this year. I know we say this every year, but I really think Henderson has a lot of work to do if they wanna get back to states this year.
DeleteOn paper WC East doesn't seem great, but they have a very young team with times that aren't bad for a bunch of youngsters. Not saying they'll definitely beat Henderson, but they have a lot of upside because they are so young. Lots of untapped potential. And I'm not a WC East runner. But yes, CB East has a great shot.
DeleteMy sleeper team out of D1 is Unionville. They have great coaching, and if Hall runs Xc, then they're really dangerous up front with a pretty solid one two in Hall and Delvecchio. Plus they've got Andes and Biederman with pretty solid times.
DeleteHere's my view on Unionville. First off, Andes graduates, so you can't count him. Hall is a big addition, yes, and although Delvecchio had a great track season, his Xc times were sub-par in comparison, either barely dipping below 17 or not even breaking that barrier at all. After that, Biederman is in no way good enough shape for a #3 man, and when you say behind a strong 2, unless Hall pulls Delvecchio into low 16's with him, they won't be much. Although, they had a frosh run 17:30 at districts, so if he can get below 17 as a #3, then they might be something worth while. All in all though, I don't think they have enough to compete with a team like Henderson, much less sneak into a state spot
DeleteTo the Wc east person, yes they're young, but look at where they are. A team who peaks relatively early, are known to be injury-prone, and lost the only runner who kept them relevant during the fall at least. They have no low stick, and have been known to come through in the postseason. I agree, the potential is there, as it is a lot of years, but recently they've shown they can't perform at the state level, much less the district level.
DeleteDelvecchio ran 9:36 for 3200. That's nothing to scoff at. If you look at their progression, all the Unionville guys have been consistently dropping time since their last xc season. It doesn't really matter what they ran last xc season. You can't simply say they did poorly last year so they'll do poorly next year. They've consistently bend dropping time, and good times too. It's a trend. In trading on Wall Street, a common saying is "the trend is your friend." Using that logic, in my opinion, Unionville has a good shot at being competitive at both the district and state level.
DeleteOk, I will give you that. So lets say those two go on to drop crazy times and break 16, which already is a stretch. Diestelow was 9:19 and was in 15:50s and 40's. Not saying its ever fair to compare the two seasons, but just pointing it out. So by giving those two times that are already long shots, you're relying on a runner who ran 18:26 as a pr to be your #3 man for a team that you claim to be ready for a district and state level? Heck, say those 2 don't break 16, then you get Biderman to barely break 18 next year? In this day and age, that would barely get you top 15 in the district, where of course, we are barring injury. I'm not disagreeing with your logic in trending, just simply giving the other side of the argument for discussion purposes.
DeleteBiederman ran 10:15 for 3200 as well. Now that's not great, but for the sake of argument, I ran a similar time for 3200 and ran mid 16's for xc. Assuming Biederman can ran a comparable time, now you're looking at potentially two sub 16 and 1 mid 16 and then whatever that freshman can drop. Not saying they're a lock, I just think that they have a shot at a spot at states.
DeleteSpring ford ftw
DeleteA Two Mile or 5k on the track is waaaaaaaay faster than a 2 mile or 5k on the xc course, so it's hard to compare times. XC splits are every mile, while on the track you get a split every 400 meters, making it easier to pace. Plus there is no difference in course difficulty and length on the track, some guys are great track runners but can't run the hills. Some people are better at track than XC. Chris Cummings was top 10 or something like that at states and in the teens at regionals his senior year and was never able to break 4:30 in the mile. My point is, track times aren't a great indicator of success of failure in XC and you can't use a 3200 meter time to predict xc times. You have to take into account a 5k time as well since the two events are vastly different.
DeleteI would have really liked to have seen Hock race in an AAA race. Too bad no 3200m at the PA Distance Festival...
ReplyDeletewhat is the RJJL investigation
ReplyDeleteProving he's coach k.
DeleteHe is someone from Henderson or close to them. Since he won't reveal who he is, that means he probably has a strong relationship or connection to them and is posting anonymously and anyone that knows him doesn't to know he is RJJL and he wants to keep that a secret. Maybe he thinks he will be looked at differently or is someone like Paul Hayes who was never very good but still has an informed opinion.
DeleteLets try not to ostracize him into not posting. I love his content too! Keep going RJJL
Delete^ Agree. His content is as good as anyone not named Etrain and his predictions are usually outstanding.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteTeams:
ReplyDelete1. Central Bucks East
2. Downingtown West
3. Central Bucks West
4. Mount Lebanon
5. Cumberland Valley
6. Easton
7. Cardinal Ohara
8. Unionville
9. La Salle
10. Other District One Team
We're having a "Festival of 800s" on Thursday at Henderson at 3:45. Right now, the definites are Brehm, Wisner and the Hoeys. It's a free meet. It will be quick. There will probably be some open guys there. Should be pretty fast for the 800 as it will be pretty hot. Let me know via e-mail if you're going to run- kkelly1@wcasd.net
ReplyDeleteCoach Kelly
It'd be nice to get Ritz, Lewis and Perreta back in decent weather and take down that state record. That was such a great race at the distance festival, they all went hard for the win. I'm in the corner of the weather cost it at least 2 seconds, though I have absolutely no scientific proof whatsoever to back that hunch.
DeleteI would like to thank Etrain11 for all the time and research he does to make the articles great reading. I also wanted to wish all the seniors good luck at the their next level in running at College, there has been so many talented runners who I am sure will do great at college. This senior class was loaded with talent, may be the best senior class of all time.
ReplyDeleteAnybody know of runners that went or are going to service academies besides Brehm? The only one I can think of is Kevin Moy who went to Navy, and he has underperformed possibly due to work load.. Will it be too difficult to balance military life, school, and running for Brehm to maintain his current level of performance? I mean, it's amazing that he's serving, just curious as to what might happen to his ability.
ReplyDeleteReply
What school is he attending? The Air Force has had some EXTREMELY successful milers/1500m runners over the past decade.
Delete--ForrestCRN
Will you be doing any analysis for Nationals before they take place next weekend?
ReplyDeleteI'd like to if I have time, do you know if there is an entry list anywhere?
DeleteNot yet, I was told next Tuesday or Wednesday
DeleteShockingly, I'm going to predict CRN makes it to states. I see them placing 5th in the District and 12th at the State Meet. Big meet by Ben Heintz will get them through at Districts (13th place), but Tim Haas will be the top finisher around 40th at the state meet. I really like the future of this team, however, with Heintz being the only senior in their top 6.
ReplyDelete--ForrestCRN
Forrest, will you do a full xc top 10/preview, or are you done writing articles?
Delete