Rock Meets Train: Mile Rankings

Train: I often consider Kevin Dare the “mid-point” of the indoor season and it’s typical a reasonable time to start putting together some rankings on the different events. To do this, I’ve decided to get the original dream team back together and reached out to ForrestCRN of PA Don’t Play to get a google doc conversation going.

We’ll start with a little break down on the mile. Sam Ritz is dominating the event so far, with the state lead by roughly 10 seconds. This is a lot like Russell in 2014, seems like a time trail for the state record is in play with a double looming. What are some of your early thoughts on the mile?

CRN: The Mile seems to be in a similar place to last season: we’ve got a clear front runner and a slowly developing class of runners behind that could make for a special race. Last year we had 4:20.5 take 8th place! It seems a bit out of no where, but lets look at some of the candidates behind Ritz who could really mix things up -- Billy McDevitt and Mike Kolor have both run 4:23 in the mile this season and are looking like some of the stronger runners in the state. Last season Ryan Grace ran 4:25 at Kevin Dare and ran 4:20 at the state meet (for some context -- Kyle Shinn just ran 4:25...). I think there is no question that both of these runners will be in the event. Then there is the question of Kevin James. I’m in the opinion that James will run the Mile/DMR double similar to Ross Wilson did last season. He’s such a team oriented runner. But speaking of top runners in the Mile/3k, Train what are you thoughts on runners such as Paul Power and Jake Brophy?


Train: That’s the biggest question for me right now: trying to figure what the plan is for these guys. There is a crop of studs like Marston, Dahl, Brophy, Webb and James (and some under the radar guys like Wills, Hanna, Arita, Maguire) who have serious potential to place well in the 3k, but also have relay duties looming on the back end of the meet. That’s a ton of guys who are facing some seriously tough choices. Believe it or not, I think the 3k-4x8 double is a bit more doable than the 3k-anchor the DMR double (which I think is incredibly difficult). It’s less rest, but the 3k and 800m are different enough events that I think it’s easier to do.

I’m currently leaning towards Brophy in the 3k (sacrificed for team last outdoors, top returner this year), but after that I’m not sure I see any of this crew jumping in the event (and Brophy is borderline obviously). It seems like Marston and Conestoga have been training very DMR specific which means the 3k doesn’t make a ton of sense. CRs South needs to be as fresh as possible in my eyes and Arita can still have a ton of success in the mile. I’m leaning towards a completely fresh GFS DMR at this point and I think Malvern Prep throws their horses in the mile because they have a little extra something to prove this year on the relay.

The 3k is in play for James and Webb. I still think that James can win a state title in the mile by season’s end (even over Ritz), but running 8:40 and then 4:26 probably puts doubts in your mile capabilities. Plus the team just dropped a solid 4x800m team and they have let James pursue the individual events for the past two years while saving their DMR for nationals. As for Webb, he can pull of the 3k-4x8 double (he’s done in the past two years in track), it’s just a matter of how confident Pennsbury feels in what I expect to be a loaded 4x8.

Power really makes things interesting here. He’s running a lot of Mile races and working on his speed. He could be a medalist in the mile, but if he goes fresh in the 3k there may even be a chance he could win with so many top guys potentially dropping out. What do you see Power doing going ahead? And who are your sleepers for the potential medal spots for the mile?

ForrestCRN: Right now I see Paul Power in a similar position to Max Norris. Obviously Norris was strong and his XC season ended a bit strong (although Power’s 14th place at Regionals shouldn’t totally be over-looked). His 4:24 mile really blew me away and his 8:55 early season 3k time is something that he could probably blow away right now. If James and Webb do choose the 3k/4x800 double things will become more complicated for him, but I think he’s one of the front runners and almost a lock for a place in the top 5. All of this being said, just to be explicit, I believe Paul Power will run the 3k totally fresh. The mile does seem like a good event for him, but with so many question marks elsewhere I think this is the best race for him.

Another potential candidate for the 3k/4x8 double that we haven’t talked about is Jake Brophy. He’s been sparse on racing individual events and I’m not sure where to place him either right now. I’d love to see him, James, and Webb battle it out in the 3k only to return for a leg in a relay. Webb I think is a shoe-in for this double. We’ve see him complete it very successfully before (twice outdoors) and he seems to be in great shape so far this season. James seems more likely to do the Mile/DMR double to me. He’s such a team oriented runner that I think he’d sacrifice his individual goals for a DMR/4x8 team (depending on what seems best). His team isn’t the strongest behind him and he will be able to make the biggest impact on the mile leg, since it’s more his distance and he’d be the top anchor for any team (unless Dahl drops something big or Jaxson comes out of the wood works, but lets not get into that now). James reminds me a lot of Ross Wilson in terms of mindset, so that’s where I see him going.

That being said about James I’ll jump into the potential Mile field. Ritz and James should be up front and if Jaxson Hoey comes back he might be able to join them (but again too much speculation to talk about). I think Nick Dahl will follow for the mile/DMR double with James. I was going to write about John Daly having a potential breakout race, but that seems stupid now considering he split… 4:17?!? They went 10:29 in the DMR!! Are you kidding me St. Joes Prep?? They had an extremely underrated 4x8 last season and Daly has really stepped up his game on the track. I believe that’d be a 7 to 8 second PR for him, although a split, that’s still crazy. Reminds me of the 4:12 nationals race that Belfatto had. If Daly can drop something ~4:20 in an open race in the next few weeks he’ll be one of the medal favorites as well. Two more candidates for the Mile/DMR double are the Malvern Prep boys Billy McDevitt and Colin Wills. Wills split a strong 3:13/14 at Yale and could be a medal sleeper for Malvern Prep, but I think that they will hold him out to be fresh in order to try and win the title. That being said I think McDevitt will double. He’s got the strength to run 8:45ish in my opinion, so I think he can run approximately two 4:20’s within a few hours. It’ll be tough, but he’s capable.


Sappey will be an interesting runner to follow in the coming weeks. He has run solid, but nothing too amazing following his breakout XC season, but I think he puts down something more 3k-esk in the next few weeks, but I would like to see DTW stack a DMR at MoC’s.

I believe Alex Milligan will opt for the 800 instead of the mile, but I do think he’d be capable of a 4:24ish by season’s end. But I think he’ll place 7th or 8th in the open 800. Diestelow seems to be focusing solely on the mile and hopefully this season things will come together for him. He always seems to be on the verge of a breakout when he gets injured, but I’m hoping we see him run around 4:23 at states, which could certainly be a medal time this season.

Kolor is another one of my favorite guys and could be the best Miler from out west this indoor season with Jeff Van Kooten still recovering from his late season XC injury. Kolor made very steady improvement from indoors to outdoors last season and he had a fantastic end of his XC season. Kolor is still only a junior and I could see him going as low as 4:20 indoors. I speculate he’ll be more likely to hit a 4:22, but I have no doubt we will see this young man on the medal stand.

There are 4 more boys I would like to mention -- ‘Stoga’s Murray/Marston combo and the combo from CR South MaGuire/Hanna. With Killian Nelson’s 2:00.09 this team’s DMR is looking very, very strong. I’d love to see them totally fresh and they’re a team centered group. I could very well see them taking this route, but the other chance is that Murray will double the Mile/1200 and Marston will double the Mile/Mile. Murray has looked fantastic this season and I bet he could double very well. Marston ran 15:40 at Hershey and that type of strength could also lead him to a 4:25/4:25 double. Chris Campbell for example ran 4:18 in the open and came back in a 4:17.9 split in the DMR (and he leaned at the 1600m line, which lost him 2nd place). Marston right around Campbell in my opinion in terms of XC runners, and although he doesn’t have Campbells speed he does have his strength (like Wilson as well) and that leads to very even doubles. As for CR South I think they will running the 4x8. They seem to be developing into a North Penn like squad. We shall see at the end of the season, because to me they stack up the best in the DMR. If that is the case I could see Hanna doubling and having MaGuire stay fresh. If they go for the 4x8 then they’ll probably keep everyone fresh or have someone double back from the open 800.

Is there anyone other than Kolor or Van Kooten that you see from out west mixing it up this indoor season in the Mile? NA has yet to open up, but I think we’ll see McGoey and Wharrey running the 3k. Also, do you think that Ritz could get the 4:12.61 Meet Record from Paul Springer? Tony Russell showed just how difficult that time is this past season when he ran 4:12.69 at the state meet.

Train: The West is really tricky to judge because we have seen so little racing from those guys thus far. Most are just getting started and finding momentum. I think Scott Seel’s early win is encouraging. A 4:35 on a tough to pace track is an excellent time for your first race of the year. He has an excellent crop of teammates to train with as well (but I agree I expect Wharrey and McGoey to pursue the 3k). To be fair, Gil and Steiner both chose the mile as a Junior and Senior respectively (and both did quite well) so it’s not a lock McGoey stays 3k, but I’d be surprised by migration.

I feel like many of the best guys out West are thinking 3k (NA, Winchester Thurston, etc), but if Todd Gunzenhauser opts to come down, he is running very well. He has already run 4:33 and 9:00, strong marks in low key meets. I also think Jacob Heinauer of North Hills could be in the mix if chooses to come down from the 3000. Also keep an eye on Noah Smith of Ringgold as a sleeper and maybe Elias Graca will try his hand at a fast mile after his excellent cross season.

As for Ritz, that's a tricky question. Based on what he has run so far, he's in shape to challenge the record (and maybe do something historic in the 1k this weekend). However, Ritz will have to be careful with his pacing at states. If he guns things out in 60, I think he will struggle to come home, racing all alone out front (somewhat like Russell last year). But if he stays within himself for 800m, takes things out in 2:10ish and then closes, it's hard to imagine him being far away. He would really benefit from some extra help (James, Brophy or someone else rising to challenge). Keep in mind when Springer ran that record he was racing Millrose Champ Jason Weller. He also split around 60 for the final 400m after a relaxed opening quarter.

I think Ritz is the #1 guy in this field right now. But it doesn't mean we can't get some rankings! Here is my top 8 as of right now (based on who I think is running in):
1. Sam Ritz
2. Billy McDevitt
3. Jake Brophy (as of now he doesn't have a 3k qualifier so he lands here)
4. Mike Kolor
5. John Daly
6. Kyle Shinn
7. Brian Arita
8. Alex Milligan

Wills, Diestelow, and Hanna were among my toughest exclusions. How about your rankings?

ForrestCRN: I’m really hoping Gunzenhauser runs another Mile in the coming weeks. He’s one of my sleeper picks to make top 12. I think that Ritz will get the win, but I do hope that he runs a smart race like Willig did a few years ago. That being said here are my rankings for the top 8:
1. Sam Ritz
2. Kevin James
3. Billy McDevitt
4. Jake Brophy
5. Mike Kolor
6. John Daly
7. Eric Diestelow
8. Kyle Shinn

My just missed are PJ Murray, Brian Arita, and Alex Milligan in that order (Although I see Milligan choosing the 800) and if that is the case my 3rd guy would be Wills.