District 7 Predictions

AAA

North Allegheny is beginning to reassert itself as state title favorites. Their big three looked fantastic at the league championships in CAL and they bested district rivals Mount Lebanon in the process. NA was the preseason favorite, but the transfer of Seamus Love last year combined with a tough loss to O’Hara at Pre States suddenly made NA seem vulnerable. However, in recent weeks their 4-5 (and 6-7) have come on very strong to give the squad some assurance behind their front running trio.

 

McGoey has also continued to impress this year. He has been dominant on the District 7 scene and his only real blemish on his resume is a 4th place finish at Pre States (behind three phenomenal performances). Wharrey has been fantastic as well. He has shadowed McGoey all year and as a result, his performances have not gotten quite the credit they deserve. Last year NA came out blazing at Pre States but faded a bit at stats so this year they may have switched things up to help them peak later in the year. An attempt at the NXN regional meet may also be on the schedule, which would mean these guys still have over a month of training to go.

 

Lebo’s best chance at dethroning the nearly decade long streak of North Allegheny at WPIALs is a tight pack. Gunzenhauser and Baun having both had their moments in recent weeks as front runners, but NA’s 3 has been able to put a serious gap on Lebo’s (typically Harris or Brandenstein). That gap has to shrink, which means Lebo needs to file in after their front runners and keep their spread down close to 30-40 seconds. They also will look for a bounce back race from Matt Stone or continued improvement from their 6 and 7. I think this race could end up closer than most people think, but NA should get the W.

 

The race for 3rd is highly compelling to me. I’ve never been quite sold on North Hill’s 4th and 5th runners, however, the teams I have chasing them have not quite impressed me in recent weeks. The district meet could result in two extremes for North Hills. 1) They get a strong performance from their 4-5, their top 3 duplicate their recent performance at Pittsburgh Central Catholic, and they contend with Lebo for 2nd. 2) Their 4-5 are a bit underwhelming and their top 3 don’t have a big enough day to carry them past the pack for Pitts CC or the sleeper pick in Canon Mac (who has it’s own big three that is making noise). In the end I think North Hills holds on, but if VanKooten can set the tone with a win out front Pittsburg Central Catholic will make things interesting.

 

Individually, McGoey has given us no reasons to doubt his fitness. He wrecked the Cal Course this past week and no one has really been close to him all year from the WPIAL besides his teammate Wharrey. Those guys are poised for a 1-2 finish once again, however, I think someone sneaks in and breaks up. The list of names that could do this is fairly long: Heinauer, VanKooten, Susalla, and Graca come to mind with Gunzenhauser a possible sleeper. I worry a tiny bit about Wharrey at Coopers (he had a tough race there last week) as opposed to somewhere like Hershey (fantastic race last year) and Heinauer has run fantastic this season. Van Kooten has been a little rocky in recent weeks, but he has the talent to contend for the title if things fall into place and he can stay on his feet. Graca faced some midseason hardships, but has shown signs he will bounce back in the coming weeks. TGunz has been quickly picking up steam the past few weeks and Lebo is hungry for revenge this weekend.

 

Ethan Linderman is a strong name that should be remembered this weekend. Nick Wolk from Peter’s is another potential top 5 guy on the right weekend. Tanner Quiggle and Mike Kolor for Seneca Valley were key members of the stud 4x8 that SV put together last outdoors and Quiggle was top 20 or so at this meet a year ago. Kolor was a 4:20 miler who I expect to have a big breakthrough this week at Districts. Some of the guys I was super high on early in the season (i.e. TGunz, Dom Perretta, Dylan Eddinger, etc.) have started to come on in recent weeks. Kolor was another one of the guys in that group.

 

1       North Allegheny         54

2       Mount Lebanon           91

3       North Hills                     141

4       Pitts CC                                164

5       Canon Mac                       189

6       Fox Chapel

7       Baldwin

 

1       McGoey  North Allegheny

2       Heinauer        North Hills

3       Wharrey North Allegheny

4       VanKooten       Pitts CC

5       Graca           Fox Chapel

6       Susalla         Plum

7       Gunzenhauser    Mount Lebanon

8       Seel            North Allegheny

9       Linderman       Canon Mac

10      Baun            Mount Lebanon

11      Wolk            Peters Township

12      McNally North Hills

13      Kolor           Seneca Valley

14      Conboy  Baldwin

15      Burchlaw        North Hills

16      Quiggle Seneca Valley

17      Burkhardt       Bethel Park

18      Harris          Mount Lebanon

19      Trottier        Franklin Regional

20      Migliozzi       North Allegheny

21      Halawski        Fox Chapel

22      Stupak          North Allegheny

23      Brandenstein    Mount Lebanon

24      Mansfield       Canon Mac

25      Young            Pitts CC

26      Deible          North Allegheny (6)

27      Westrick        Chartier's Valley

28      Laugherty       Norwin

29      Strosko         Canon Mac

30      Schleicher      Pine Richland

31      Krist           Hampton

32      Beveridge       Butler

33      Stone           Mount Lebanon

34      Terrell         Penn Hills

35      Connolly        Gateway

 

AA

The AA and A District 7 playoff pictures are wild. Quaker Valley has been the top squad in the District in recent years and they seem to have the pieces to win another district title this year. Zach Skolnevich is a sleeper pick for the AA state title and a favorite to grab a win here at Coopers, giving QV a big time low stick. Lang, Hubsch and Cooper will look to provide strong runs behind him to compete with some of the excellent packs that will be competing for District gold.

 

The best of those packs at this point appears to be Knoch. These boys ran strong at Pre States and their league championships. They have excellent front runners in Grumski and Carlsson (a sleeper in this race) and add nice depth with runs like Freyermuth and Ejzak just behind. That’s a killer top 4. A big day from their #5 and I think they will be district champs.

 

South Fayette will look to get back to the state championships this season, relying on their big three of Pfiel, Sandala and Snodgrass. They have one of the deeper rosters of this group which should help them compete for a district title, especially if their front runners can crack the top 10. Mars looks like they sat a few of their top runners at their league meet, so hopefully there are no injuries here. Knox and Mrdjenovich could be top 10 guys, health permitting and that would be the lift Mars needs to sneak by Beaver and Hopewell, both of whom have been fantastic in recent weeks and will be gunning for the final spots to states.

 

Individually, the stud sophomore Skolnevich is favored to bring home the title. Sean Hilverding was a top 5 guy at states a year ago in a surprise run and he added an early season sub 16 mark to boost his resume. He struggled here at WPIALs last year and will be out for revenge. Meanwhile, Noah Smith of Ringgold has been fantastic this year, competing hard with many top runners from AAA, AA and A in District 7. Zack White is a sleeper pick to steal the title from West Allegheny.

 

1       Quaker Valley   100

2       Knoch           104

3       South Fayette   119

4       Mars            132

5       Beaver Area

6       Hopewell

7       West Allegheny

 

1       Skolnevich      Quaker Valley

2       N. Smith        Ringgold

3       Hilverding      Waynesburg

4       Bickerton       South Moreland

5       White           West Allegheny

6       Knox            Mars

7       Grumski Knoch

8       Mrdjenovich     Mars

9       Lott            Elwood City

10      Bumgarner       Waynesburg

11      Lamison Beaver Area

12      Lenze           Indiana Area

13      Nero            Hopewell

14      Lang            Quaker Valley

15      Pfiel           South Fayette

16      Sandala South Fayette

17      Hubsch          Quaker Valley

18      Ross            Blackhawk

19      Carlsson        Knoch

20      Cicone          Hopewell

21      Snodgrass       South Fayette

22      Freyermuth      Knoch

23      Cooper          Quaker Valley

24      Carei           Uniontown

25      Ejzak           Knoch

26      Rendar          Beaver Area

27      Artinger        West Allegheny

28      Porter          Mars

29      Klatt           Uniontown

30      L. Pittner      Beaver Area

31      Pettit          Knoch

32      Faser           South Fayette

33      J. Pittner      Beaver Area

34      Kominski        Hopewell

35      Cusick          South Fayette

36      Harr            Derry

37      Wahl            West Allegheny

38      Bowser          Freeport

39      Pusateri        Trinity

40      Schrott         West Mifflin

 

A

There will be a mad dash to the line in A for the 3 state qualifying spots. There are 5 teams that likely have hopes of claiming one of those spots including defending district champs and reigning Pre State champs Avonworth. Avonworth has been consistently strong with a good pack led by Joyce. Domencic and Noethiger have been nice 2-3 runners as well and they go 7 deep, something not many A teams can say. Sacred Heart also has strong depth and Ballou is an underrated talent out front. Sewickley has arguably the best front runners of the bunch with Griffin Mackey poised to compete for the district title and Clouse and Hansen each having had big moments this season. Sewickley seems like they have rarely run at full strength this season so there potential is compelling. Hopefully there are no injuries to worry about and they can compete for the district title.

 

I think those three teams are the clear top 3 and should all be within a couple points of each other at Districts (my projections currently say about 5 points). Winchester Thurston has a chance to break things up, but they have had some injury issues of their own. Loevner has not been 100% this year and I haven’t seen Delaney much in recent weeks. Those two and Littman, when all are healthy, create a killer top 3 that no other team can match. But they are not incredibly deep through 5 guys like their competitors and as mentioned, health is a concern. Vincentian is a sleeper team that could potentially get involved. Koryak is a front runner with district champion aspirations and Adams and Reed are great pieces at 2-3. They have a deeper squad than many realize so if one or more of the top teams falter, they could potentially sneak in and surprise.

 

Individually, I think this should be a fantastic race between sophomore Griffin Mackey and Junior Dom Perretta. Perretta got the better of Mackey last time out and seems to be rounding into form, but Mackey has been consistently solid all year. I think he gets his revenge here at districts, especially considering the team title is on the line. I believe Perretta is a week away, maybe at states he does something big, but I’m not all in on him just yet. Colten Trimble from South Side has been consistently solid as well, cut from the Noah Smith mold. Landin Delaney and Will Loevner were fantastic track runners last year and if both are healthy they will contend for the title. Koryak is a strong 800m guy who has the closing speed to pick some big names off at the end of the race.

 

1       Avonworth                       85

2       Our Lady of Sacred Heart        89

3       Sewickley                       90

4       Vincentian Academy              124

5       Winchester Thurston             150

 

1       Mackey  Sewickley

2       Perretta        Beaver Falls

3       Trimble South Side

4       Koryak          Vincentian Academy

5       Ballou          Our Lady of Sacred Heart

6       DiVecchio       Burgettstown

7       Delaney Winchester Thurston

8       MaGuire Trinity Christian

9       Joyce           Avonworth

10      Loevner Winchester Thurston

11      Kocent          Our Lady of Sacred Heart

12      Clouse          Sewickley

13      Leech           Shady Side

14      Hansen          Sewickley

15      Domencic        Avonworth

16      Leber           Shenango

17      Noethiger       Avonworth

18      Wisniewski      Northgate

19      Littman Winchester Thurston

20      Adams           Vincentian Academy

21      Bauerle Avonworth

22      Michalenko      Our Lady of Sacred Heart

23      Fritts          Avonworth

24      Hoffman Our Lady of Sacred Heart

25      Conrad          Freedom

26      Gonsowski       Riverview

27      Cahlan          Our Lady of Sacred Heart

28      Hanlon          Sewickley

29      Salem           Shenango

30      Reed            Vincentian Academy

31      Bonnent Northgate

32      Zentgraf        Riverview

33      Shannon Vincentian Academy

34      Ziegler         Our Lady of Sacred Heart (6)

35      Magee           Sewickley

 

District 4 Predictions

AA

District 4 is a pretty solid district for AA and A. In AA they have runner named Simon Smith who is daring anyone to try and Stay With Me. I’m gonna go ahead and high five myself for that.

 

Smith is my pick to win this race and the question for me is really more geared towards how high can be place at states. The top 10 is loaded, as I have said many times, so Smith will have to take steps to distinguish himself this week. He will be up against a fairly quality field that includes the Mt. Caramel boys who will be chasing a top 5 finish in the AA state championships. Their leader is Nate Bartos who will try and outduel Smith for the title. Also worth watching is Amabile from Mifflinburg, Beiler from Selingsgrove, Bach from Lewisburg and Sweet from Sayre. Sweet is an excellent miler who is trying to make the transition to cross effectively. Bach is a young up and comer from the always strong program Lewisburg. I’m predicting a break out race for him at this meet.

 

Mt. Caramel is heavy favorites in my eyes to qualify for states. That’s bad news for the rest of the district because they are down to just 1 state qualifying spot this year. Lewisburg and the upstart team Warrior Run will try their best to pull off the upset, but Mt. Caramel has a ton of fire power out front behind Bartos and Moser that I’m not sure anyone can match. Fisher and Fletcher are strong 3-4 pieces as well. Warrior Run looked strong at Pre States with a surprise top 10 finish, but they are lacking the front running to really make a splash. Bach and Alico are both individual qualifying threats for Lewisburg, but that is likely the only way they will be getting a ride to Hershey.

 

1       Mt Caramel      55

2       Lewisburg

3       Warrior Run

 

1       Smith           Towanda

2       Bartos          Mt Caramel

3       Amabile Mifflinburg

4       Moser           Mt Caramel

5       Beiler          Selingsgrove

6       Bach            Lewisburg

7       Sweet           Sayre

8       Gavitt          Hughesville

9       Malafronte      Danville

10      Fisher           Mt Caramel

11      Alico           Lewisburg

12      Lewis           Milton

13      Leeser          Milton

14      Fletcher        Mt Caramel

15      Spaulding       Lewisburg

 

A

District 4 has carved out a nice niche in the newly formed A. Northeast Bradford won the first ever A state title thanks to a pair of stars in Williams and Jewett. This year, they have quietly become one of the favorites to grab yet another A title (especially if the D7 teams race each other into the group this week). They are set up to dominate this meet and even have an outside chance at a sweep if the South Williamsport boys don’t end up with 5 guys like last year (even though I believe they had a full squad at Paul Short). Garrett Smith did big things down the stretch for Bradford a year ago and is joined out front by Levi Upham, a key contributor to their 2012 state title squad. Allbaugh and Senns-Bishop are very solid 3-4 guys and Mosier and Horton each have the potential to be a strong 5 on a championship team.

 

Individually, Griffin Molino should defend his title without too much effort at the District Championships. The reigning state champ has already run under 15:20 this year at Paul Short and showcased brilliant closing speed at that meet as well. Very few runners have stepped forward as challengers for Molino in the A world and Molino can crush a few more runners confidence with a statement win against a few guys from NEB who will be medal contenders at Hershey. Watch out for the Schools boys from Wyalusing and Gleckner from Canton to try and help Molino break up the NEB pack.

 

1       Northeast Bradford      24

2       Wyalusing

 

1       Molino          South Williamsport

2       G. Smith        Northeast Bradford

3       Upham           Northeast Bradford

4       Allbaugh        Northeast Bradford

5       Gleckner        Canton

6       Senns-Bishop    Northeast Bradford

7       Schools Wyalusing

8       Woodruff        Wyalusing

9       Mosier          Northeast Bradford

10      Schools Wyalusing

11      May             Canton

12      Horton          Northeast Bradford (6)

The Great Question: What's the D1 Cut Off Time?

Hey I will continue to have a ton of posts throughout the next two weeks so make sure u scroll around and read those that u r interested in. I will have previews for every single district, all classes, with complete state qualifying predictions. I will also have an independent league preview. Hope you enjoy all the posts!


The #1 question I've heard asked in the last few months is a seemingly simple one: what time will it take to make states out of district one?

Time is such an easy concept, part of why running is such a great sport. Last year I ran 18:14, this year I ran 17:22 so I've improved around 50 seconds! That's pretty cool, I'm headed in the right direction! Last year the state champ ran 16:09, this year they ran 15:48, clearly this year was a better year.

It's an objective means of comparison. If only it was that simple. In cross country especially it's never that simple. You are running in different weather, there are different pacers and sometimes even course lay outs change. The district one meet is no exception. Couple these complicating factors that are often virtually unpredictable with the difficult task of projecting the talent level within the race itself and you have a blurry Polaroid.

But that doesn't mean I can't pull an Andre 3000 and shake it up a bit.

So here are the basics for those of you who may not know. In District One, the 5 teams with the lowest scores qualify for the state championship. Once those 5 teams have been decided, the individuals on those teams have been guaranteed a state qualifying spot and are therefore excluded from the individual selection process. The top 25 individuals in the race who haven't already qualified with their team will make it to the state championship as individuals. This is where the "last time to states" is determined, by the 25th individual.

(For the record this is the basic formula for state qualifying in all districts. However many teams qualify multiply by 5 and there is your individual count)

District One historically has produced the most state champs and state medalists so things are quite competitive. We (my district one bias in action) stopped sending 6 teams in 2008, so the 2006 and 2007 cut offs aren't really relevant. However, I have considered modified adjustments if the district only took 5 and 25.

I also think the winning time is a good reference point for how fast the race overall was. Since first mile stats aren't always available, the winning time was the best stat. So these would be the cut off times each year since 06 in our current system:

2006: 16:04 (14:47, 1st mile 4:44)
2007: 16:07 (15:02, 1st mile 4:43)
2008: 16:01 (15:08, 1st mile 4:56)
2009: 16:41 (15:35, 1st mile 5:12)
2010: 16:24 (15:16)
2011: 16:34 (15:16, 1st mile 4:51)
2012: 16:19 (15:11)
2013: 16:15 (14:59)

So these numbers are all fine and good, but what do they mean for this year? For starters we need to project the winning time for this year. As you can tell the winning times seem quite highly correlated with the final qualifying times.

Now this could imply two things.
1) The talent level in the district from year to year is relatively constant, the winning times and qualifying times are not necessarily determined by each runners talent but the weather, pace, and course conditions determine the model and the runners themselves run to fit themselves into the positions in the model.

This probably is a reasonable process although I'd say it doesn't really apply to the winner so much as the final qualifier. I was 90th at districts my senior year, so by the time you get down to 90th you are looking at almost identical times from year to year, the only possible variables are weather and pace. The depth down to 90 is basically perfectly consistent, but obviously the depth down to 5 is much more inconsistent.

2) The winner/leaders of the race determine the pace at the beginning of the race based on their tactics and the rest of the strong runners just file in behind this precedent.

Also a reasonable theory, however we can see from the 1st mile times over the year, how fast everybody gets out may be slightly overrated.

The best bet, as usual, is a combination of the two.

Now 2008 and 2009 suggest we can probably rule out some time of natural trend over time, i.e. every year the qualifying time gets a few seconds faster. After the 2008 race I remember saying to my friend Todd, it will take sub 16 to make states next year. I was positive. Lower Merion had run an average of 16:02 and missed states. Same for Kyle Klaptauskus of Bensalem. It was absurd. But we haven't had anything like that since

(nothing even close actually which I find odd. 2008 wasn't a particularly talented group of runners, especially compared to 2006 where we dominated at states. And the pace wasn't fast either really, 4:56 is one of the slowest times recorded for the mile. This could imply a number of things, like maybe Furcht and co killed the second mile, maybe people go out too fast and would be better off running close to even splits. Can't say for sure not enough stats on record. I will say this, in 06, 07, 08 and maybe 09, if my memory serves me correct the start wasn't all the way back, it was in the middle, but they said that was fine because you made up for it by running around the statues instead of in front of them. But I think in recent years the start is all the way back and you still run around the statues? So it may be  extended. I'm working completely off memory here, but if I'm right 2010 and on are the more important numbers).

But I digress. As for this year's situation I think it is important to first discuss the winning time and the pace. Weather is too unpredictable to commit to but early forecasts are suggesting rain early in the week an sun on pretty nice weather on Friday (so maybe a colder, slightly muddier Paul Short? Which produced fast times). This year has produced fast times in every major meet. Abert, Hoey and Power all basically got meet records. Brophy got his own record this past week in an unreal performance from him and Comber (I will go in depth on this in my preview, but I'm not sure people realize how unreal those times were. They just raced 1 on 1 to two of the fastest times ever in course history. Unreal).

I think it's safe to assume sub 15 is in play when you throw Power, Marston, Webb and Sappey (the other major league champs) with Brophy and Comber. That means this thing ought to be fast.

So fast pace and decent enough weather. That means a fast final qualifying time. Now let's talk depth.

I'm not completely convinced things are as deep as last year, but part of last years depth was due to Henderson (which has virtually no effect on the top 25 non team individuals).

That being said, this has been a wild year with lots of guys running fast times at leagues and Paul Short. In my opinion I feel like this year has a very strong top 10-15 group, then a bit more average of a group from 15-30 and then things start to get stronger again from 30-40 (around where the 25th individual should end up). But that's a decent chunk of guess work and personal opinion.

Regardless of how you spin it, weather permitting, I'd be very surprised if anyone makes states with a time slower than 16:25, but very surprised if someone runs 16:15 and misses.

My prediction for the final time in: 16:18, Lukas Marcelis from Wissahickon.

I hope I'm not jinxing them by doing this, but here is what I will say. Can the district gods give Wissahickon a break this year? Since 2009 they have had the worst luck with state qualifying. Dillon Farrell, Ben Ravetz, Sam Brooks, Tristan Marcelis and Lukas Marcelis have all be in the first group of guys to miss states as individuals. Brooks was literally the first guy to miss.

This year my numbers show Lukas as a bubble guy so it's possible that they suffer this fate again. I'm saying the curse breaks this year with Lukas.

Good luck to Lukas and everyone else involved. This years race is going to be a fun one.

District 3 Predictions

AAA

 

Ah, District 3. This is going to be the wackiest of the District meets for all the AAA schools. I’m about 96% sure of that (small chance that it’s D2 and I suppose a chance it’s D1. But D1 always steals the spotlight so enough about them!). Here’s the honest truth. I’ve tried really hard to figure out which four teams are going to states and I feel like I’ve probably only confused myself more. Here is what I have decided.

 

Cumberland Valley will be going back to states. Not only have they proven that they are the best team from the District the past two weeks, but they are a consistently strong program that always gets their guys to the state meet. They are a complete team with five very strong guys, led by two runners who have broken 16 minutes before. I don’t see a way these guys slip through the cracks and end up on the outside looking in. Now that being said, I’m not guaranteeing they will win a district title. Cumberland Valley is focused on peaking at states and not districts so they may hold back a little bit. They have a bit of a drop off between their 5 and 6-7 so if a guy or two struggles (like at Carlisle) they could be vulnerable. Plus they have no guaranteed top 10 guy who will be money as a low stick. But all of that is pretty much knit picking at this stage in the game. They are my de facto pick to win the District title.

 

After Cumby, I think Hershey is the next best team. Demko has been an animal in recent weeks after his 15:40 at Paul Short. The kid has been good for a while, but he’s taken the step into the elite category. He and Sponaugle are a great 1-2 punch to lead the charge. Peter D’Amico has quietly been climbing the District 3 power rankings as this squad’s number three. His steady improvement could mean he is on the verge of a breakout race. Then Hershey offers a diverse pack at 4-7. They had 6 guys in the top 40 at Mid Penns including Sophomore Grant Geyer (34th), Trevor Ruddle (37th) and Adam Rabbon (38th).  Throw in Michael Corado (16:40s at Paul Short), at this team has 7 very capable guys. That’s incredibly important at a course like Hershey where bad days are bound to happen. My favorite thing about this squad, 6 of their projected top 7 guys are Seniors. That may be just the motivation the team needs to climb the mountain and get to states. For them, this is their last chance.

 

But after those two squads I’m stuck. I think there are 8 teams in the district that are deserving of a spot to states. It’s just that loaded. The 6 teams I grappled with other than the two squads above were Carlisle, Hempfield, Lower Dauphin, McCaskey, Red Land and Twin Valley. It was brutal. I first decided to drop McCaskey out of the state spot hopefuls. I really like their top 3 (sophomore Nathan Henderson is a name on the rise) and they have a solid 4 in Perez, but I feel their 5 may end up buried in this kind of field. Admittedly, they handled that just fine at the Carlisle Invite (they beat Cumberland Valley, Carlisle, and Hempfield that day) but it still makes me nervous. I slotted McCaskey painfully at the 8 spot.

 

Keep in mind that I made projections for this District meet and the next 5 teams I’m about to talk about finish within 12 points of one another. All 5! So at that point the numbers didn’t help me much, I had to just go with my gut and intuition. I dropped Hempfield out next. Here’s the thing, Hempfield didn’t impress much at Carlisle or Paul Short, but they were missing key pieces at both meets. Duncan Brady (16:12 at PS and second at Lebo Lancaster) was missing at Carlisle and Nick Norton (10th at Lebo Lancaster) was missing from Paul Short. When they had a full squad (with the possible exception of Harrison Kline) they looked fantastic. I really like their potential and they have a serious X-factor in Christian Groff who I think will have a big day at Districts. Ultimately, I just think they fall a little short of these other squads. Painfully slotted them at 7.

 

Now it was down to 4. I gave Twin Valley one of the two remaining state spots. I really like their pack running and depth. They have 5 really strong guys and Josh Faber, their #6 on paper has filled in quite well when one of their top 5 has had an off day. I expect a big bounce back from Coakley and I think Digiacomo will run the states course well as he did a year ago. These boys made it to states last year and return that whole squad. Their projected top 5 is all Seniors which is always encouraging at this stage.

 

The final three squads all had one thing in common, they have a killer top 3 but I’m nervous about their 4-5 (for the record if Hempfield gets through to states, it will be because their pack beats out these front loaded squads, which is quite possible). I think Red Land has the best top 3 of the bunch. Seiger was my pick to win districts even before Mid Penns and that only boosted my confidence in him. I think Red Land had a bit of an off day at Mid Penns and looked much better at the other invites. I expect a bounce back performance from them and they are the squad I think will make it to the state championships, just barely edging out Lower Dauphin and Carlisle (who were the best two teams in the District a year ago, and could easily run their way into states).

 

Overall it was a brutal process but that’s the conclusion I came to. The points are the projected points from my “mock meet”, but as mentioned above with the scores so close I took my gut instincts into consideration.

 

1       Cumberland Valley       106

2       Hershey         147

3       Twin Valley             177

4       Red Land                189

5       Lower Dauphin           182

6       Carlisle                        180

7       Hempfield               185

8       McCaskey                247

9       Governor Mifflin        293

10      Wilson                  273

11      Chambersburg            298

 

Oh yeah, there is going to be an individual race too! I’ve been picking Seiger to win this one for a couple weeks and nothing in his recent performances has given me reason to doubt him. He runs the hills well and I think he knows every point counts for Red Land if they want to grab one of the team spots to states. I see both Seiger and Wilkinson having big days to set the stage for guys behind them.

 

What I find interesting is most of the top individuals in the race are also on bubble teams for states, meaning there is not going to be a lot of room to hold back. I’m sure someone like Brehm would like to run a relaxed race this week to give himself a shot at the title the next time out, but I’m not sure he can afford to if Carlisle wants to advance. Same goes for Seiger, Demko, Weidner, Henderson and maybe even someone like Jacob Connors from Wilson. I don’t see Wilson as a state qualifying threat, but they are a strong team and if I was their coach I’d be putting the idea in their heads.

 

With this in mind, I think it’s like that Gebhardt and possibly Delaney take relaxed runs on race day and get a qualifying spot without going for the win. But they may also feel chasing a district championship is more important, especially for a Senior like Gebhardt. I actually am big on the Delaney bandwagon for this week; I think he could be a sleeper pick for an upset win. A couple young guns to watch would be Henderson, the sophomore from McCaksey and Cupp the freshman from Mechanicsburg. LD also has a pair of sophs in Casell and Shea who could do damage. The true wildcard is sophomore Yahya Soliman from Cumberland Valley who I think has the potential for a top 10 day, but has been a little too inconsistent for me to place him that high.

 

1       Seiger          Red Land

2       Brehm           Carlisle

3       Gebhardt        New Oxford

4       Delaney Manheim Township

5       Demko           Hershey

6       Weidner Lower Dauphin

7       Henderson       McCaskey

8       Wilkinson       Red Land

9       Connors Wilson

10      Sponaugle       Hershey

11      Wasko           Cumberland Valley

12      Wilson          Central Dauphin

13      Brady           Hempfield

14      DeAngelo        Carlisle

15      Soliman Cumberland Valley

16      Seeber          Cumberland Valley

17      Hopkins McCaskey

18      Cassell         Lower Dauphin

19      Mills           Governor Mifflin

20      Shea            Lower Dauphin

21      Higgins         Cumberland Valley

22      Wisner          Carlisle

23      Cupp            Mechanicsubrg

24      Coakley Twin Valley

25      Mills           Red Land

26      Guiterez        McCaskey

27      Tomasko Mechanicsubrg

28      Yurchak Hempfield

29      Coleman Chambersburg

30      Schott          South Western

31      Kearns          Northern

32      D'Amico Hershey

33      Geary           Twin Valley

34      Kiousis         Kennard Dale

35      Burkholder      Penn Manor

36      Geary           Twin Valley

37      Wurtz           Chambersburg

38      Gatchell        Red Lion

39      Digicomo        Twin Valley

40      Mahon           Wilson

 

AA

 

This will be an important year for the “Is Running Hershey Back to Back Weeks a Disadvantage?” argument. AAA is very deep and has a slew of talented teams and individuals that will be attempting to make a very difficult bounce back. But AA has always had an easier time with the transition than AAA has, producing a slew of individual state champs in recent years (Beveridge twice, Gruschow, Welsh, Todaro). Last year’s district champ, Dan Green had a somewhat disappointing state meet after winning the district title. This year, if he wants to defend his title, he likely won’t be able to coast. Brady Wilt and Donovan Mears have looked extremely strong for York Suburban and Wilt is the defending A district champ. In addition, there is the dangerous duo of Kyle Shinn and Jack DiContino of Wyomissing lurking and ready to strike. Shinn was in the top 5 at states a year ago and DiContino is coming off an impressive upset win in the Berks League. I had dropped DiContino as low as 12th on this list after a series of somewhat underwhelming races, but he made a big statement this past weekend and now finds himself a serious district title contender.

I think Dan Green is going to win this race yet again and make a serious statement over Wilt, Mears and the Wyomissing duo. That being said, this weekend isn’t the real test for Green. I think it’s fair to say he’s got the best shot of knocking off Hockenbury for the title in AA and, honestly, I think you can make an argument that he has been better this year overall. But winning both meets is tricky so there is always going to be some doubt. If he cruises this first go round at Hershey, he might be my pick to win states. Some sleepers include Dan Filler from Gettysburg and Sam Signor from East Pennsboro.

 

Quick shout out to Donegal High! We have some serious family ties there (my Uncle John is the principal) so I’ll be rooting for the duo of Burkholder and Miller, a couple guys I see as bubble guys for individual qualifying spots.

 

In the team race, York Suburban will look to continue their impressive season. At their league meet, they continued to look impressive. They have real depth for a AA team and two excellent front runners leading the way. I’ll be interested to see how their freshman Oleh handles the big stage. He ran quite well at Pre States, so he shouldn’t be phased by this district course. York Suburban has the potential to get 5 guys in the top 20 if this break right. But again, the question for YS will not be if they can win districts, but if they can pull of the double victory on back to back weeks at Hershey.

 

Behind YS, Manheim Central and Palmyra should take the final two state spots. I heard that Manheim Central may be AAA this year which may completely throw off my predictions, but I slotted them in AA like last year. They were the winners of the Champions race at Carlisle and are one of the more underrated teams in AA. Palymra has been steadily improving and arguably has a better pack than MC, which should make this thing close.  Palymra has nice rotation at the front with Cole and Daniel both developing as nice leaders. Manheim has been led by Sunderland and Lachman this year, but Sunderland did not race at their league meet which could be a cause for concern. They will need both of their big guns to set the tone for their teammates. Merkey, Fitzkee and Dise will have to run solid to get the team 2nd.

 

A few teams have an outside chance at breaking up this top three party including Wyomissing (strong top 2 with a quickly developing 3 in Cullen), Conrad Weiser and Anville Cleona.

 

Here’s what I predict will play out:

 

1       York Suburban                   43

2       Manheim Central*                109

3       Palmyra                 114

4       Wyomissing

5       Conrad Weiser

 

1       Green           James Buchanon

2       Wilt            York Suburban

3       Shinn           Wyomissing

4       Mears           York Suburban

5       DiContino       Wyomissing

6       Signor          East Pennsboro

7       Filler          Gettysburg

8       Oleh            York Suburban

9       Sunderland      Manheim Central

10      Wagner  York Suburban

11      Lachman Manheim Central

12      Daniel          Palmyra

13      Drawbaugh       Trinity

14      Cole            Palmyra

15      Stabolepszy     Schuylkill Valley

16      Inman           Anville Cleona

17      McGranaghan     Berks Catholic

18      Merkey  Manheim Central

19      Lofties         York Suburban

20      Ramsay  Conrad Wesier

21      White           Eastern York

22      Bitner          Boiling Springs

23      Barkley         York Suburban (6)

24      Perry           Palmyra

25      Robinson        Palmyra

26      Maloney Oley Valley

27      Geisler         Trinity

28      Burkholder      Donegal

29      Stutzman        Lancaster Mennonite

30      McKenzie        Northeastern

 

A

 

I won’t pretend I have a strong grasp on the many of the A districts, but I do know that Camp Hill has been the team to beat out of District 3. It’s a relatively small race and I think Camp Hill has the best two runners in the field in Beheny and Leslie, with Beheny my current pick to grab the district title after his impressive Mid Penns run. Camp Hill is also the defending champs as a team, narrowly defeating Veritas last year. What appeared would be their primary competition this season, Biglersville, took a big hit when they lost Brady Wilt and now lacks the front running power they need to compete with Camp Hill. Delone Catholic is one of the few teams who could pull the upset, let by Greene and Mall who will be in the individual hunt for states as well.

 

1       Camp Hill               42

2       Delone Catholic

 

1       Beheny          Camp Hill

2       Leslie                  Camp Hill

3       Greene          Delone Catholic

4       Bender                  Veritas Academy

5       Morrison                West Shore Catholic

6       Baringer                Harrisburg Christian

7       Mall                    Delone Catholic

8       Gabig                   Camp HIll

9       Sneller                 Dayspring Christian

10      Hagarman                Delone Catholic

District 2 Predictions

AAA

With the moving of North Pocono and defending district champion Matt Kravitz, the AAA title race is very interesting. Wallenpaupack has literally been WallenpauPACK this year and last. A year ago they stunned Abington Heights and North Pocono with a tight spread and grabbed the lone spot to states. This year they are poised to do the same thing behind Kolvek and Johnson. The team looked solid at Paul Short and has been improving steadily all year long. The two teams trying to knock them off will be Abington Heights and Hazleton. Heights has not raced much this year but hopefully will be at full strength behind their three key contributors: Ross, Molinaro and Ouellette (who I haven’t seen much of this year). Heights had the front runners a year ago to win the title, but didn’t have the pack to get the job done. This year they hope to get a strong contribution from Matt Barrett (I’m assuming the younger brother of Footlocker National Camp Tessa Barrett) at the 4 spot. Hazleton will try to beat Wallenpaupack at their own game. Hazleton has a nice pack with some good young pieces and will try and use a tight spread to get to stats. Houser and Cunningham are set to lead the way with young pieces like Malloy looking to notch a top 10 finish.

 

Ultimately, I think the Pack of Wallenpau will be too strong to overcome. The experience and confidence that comes with being the defending champs should be enough to get the victory. Individually, however, I think the race should belong to one of the Abington Heights duo of Ross and Molinaro. Both runners were solid at Pre States and ran well at Districts a year ago. Sleepers include Harvilla from Pittston and Lopez from Scranton.

 

1       Wallenpaupack   43

2       Abington Heights        50

3       Hazleton                64

 

1       Ross            Abington Heights

2       Molinaro        Abington Heights

3       Kolvek          Wallenpaupack

4       Johnson Wallenpaupack

5       Lopez           Scranton

6       Houser          Hazleton

7       Harvilla        Pittston

8       Ouellette       Abington Heights

9       Cunningham      Hazleton

10      Sein            Wallenpaupack

11      Ward            Scranton

12      Wacker          Wallenpaupack

13      Malloy          Hazleton

14      Gilpin          Wallenpaupack

15      Barrett         Abington Heights

 

AA

This is set up to be one of the best races of the week (although I feel like I keep saying this in every post, gosh it is going to be an exciting district week). Out front Scranton Prep is the clear cut favorite. They were a few good breaks away from winning states a year ago and now are looking to keep the title in the District 2 trophy case on November 1stagainst Grove City, Pottsgrove (or whoever comes out of D1), York Suburban and more. I really like the Scranton Prep squad; I think they have been solidly underrated all year. They have a strong pack with able front runners keeping pace out front. Kyle Perry is a top 5 type runner in this race and Evans, Burke and Brier all have the potential to break into the top 10 on the right day. Robinson, Sullivan and Nardone add nice safety nets to the top 4.

 

But the AA race will be very deep, especially out front, thanks to the addition of North Pocono and Lakeland. Both teams bring with them reigning district champs in Matt Kravitz and Nate Morgan as well as A state medalist Mark Arzie. That means this race will include the reigning district champs in A and AAA Cross Country as well as AA track (for the 3200m and 1600m and 800m). Dom Hockenbury is the big name out front. He asserted himself quite well with his 16:10 at Pre States and he is coming off a dominating15:44 at his league meet. That being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Kravitz gives him a bit of trouble. Kravitz has great speed and ran sub 15:40 at Paul Short in his breakout performance of the year. Admittedly, I think it is also extremely plausible that Tidball and Morgan challenge Kravitz for the second spot. Tidball has had a consistently strong season and needs a low score to get his team back to states while Morgan is a 4:21 miler who finished in the top 5 at A states a year ago for Lakeland. This group of 4 should be fun to watch this week and should add to the very complicated AA top 10 individuals conversation.

 

(Just think about it: Hockenbury, Morgan, Tidball, Kravitz, Kachman, Skolnevich, Green, Hilverding, Shinn, DiContino, Noah Smith, Condloy, Gonoude, Wilt, Mears, Arzie, Simon Smith, Benka, Budnik, Maxwell, Lopez and I can keep going I assure you)

 

The individual race is going to be fantastic, but the team race should be extremely compelling as well. As mentioned, I expect a fairly comfortable victory from Scranton Prep, but keep in mind there are two state spots on the line and the second one is a real toss-up. Here is what we are working with:

 

Tunkhannock- The defending State Champs have pride on the line at this meet. Jack Tidball and Jacob Tozcko are big time low sticks out front, but there are some question marks behind them. Young Tidball and Grow will have to work hard to keep close to the Dallas and Berwick packs, plus Stonier will have to have a solid day at #5.

 

Dallas- Dallas lost their entire varsity from last year, including state champ Dominic Deluca. Keep in mind, last year’s Dallas team did not make states. But somehow, this program has reloaded and find themselves back in state qualifying talks. Zardecki is one of their stars out front and is only a freshman. Sod and Zardecki will need to push the Dallas pack up towards the top 10-15. Borton, Culp and Wayndt will look to help out at 3-5. This team’s youth and lack of a true front runner in a top heavy field are the main concerns heading into district week.

 

Berwick- One of the most intriguing teams of League week were the Berwick Bears (I don’t know if that’s actually their nickname, but it sounds too good to pass up). Berwick stunned Dallas and Tunkhannock en route to a win at Eddy Narcz. They had a strong pack of guys and Gearinger proved he can be a great front runner. This team isn’t a traditional powerhouse and behind Gearinger there is a bit of a gap to their pack of Blass, Guareua, Fisher and Kimbell, but they have proven they can beat their main competition and they have a ton of positive momentum.

 

Lakeland- They peak at the right time year in and year out. This is an underrated program who will have to prove themselves now that they are facing the increased competition of AA. They have run some fantastic 4x8s on the track in years passed, but that takes just 4 solid runners. XC takes 5. That will be the biggest question for a small school like Lakeland. The Morgan and Arzie brothers are really strong pieces, but they are lacking the depth needed at the 5 spot to pull off an upset.

 

North Pocono- They have a fantastic front runner in Kravitz and a couple underrated studs at 2-3 in Benkosh and Haines. In AAA they had a realistic shot at sweeping the top 3 …but still losing the meet. In AA things will be more challenging at the front and the race will be bigger at the back. Much like Lakeland, the pressure will be on the 4-5 guys to help make an upset happen.

 

Ultimately, I’m betting on the defending state champs to pull this one out. It’s risky because they aren’t quite as deep as Dallas or Berwick, but I believe in the power of pride and tradition.

 

1       Scranton Prep   61

2       Tunkhannock     116

3       Dallas          133

4       Berwick 141

5       North Pocono

6       Lakeland

7       Coughlin

 

1       Hockenbury      Lake Lehman

2       Kravitz         North Pocono

3       Tidball         Tunkhannock

4       Morgan  Lakeland

5       Perry           Scranton Prep

6       Tozcko          Tunkhannock

7       Gearinger       Berwick

8       Evans           Scranton Prep

9       Arzie           Lakeland

10      Benkosh North Pocono

11      Heid            Valley View

12      Haines          North Pocono

13      Sadvary Coughlin

14      Burke           Scranton Prep

15      Zardecki        Dallas

16      Brier           Scranton Prep

17      McGuire Crestwood

18      Robinson        Scranton Prep

19      Sod             Dallas

20      Balbuena        Coughlin

21      Arzie           Lakeland

22      Hoda            Holy Redeemer

23      Duffy           Valley View

24      Sullivan                Scranton Prep (6)

25      Sabol           Lake Lehman

 

A

With Lakeland moving out to face the big boys, Elk Lake is ready to step in and dominate the team landscape for A. District 10 and 7 appear to be the powerhouses this year in A, but Elk Lake has hopes of competing for the state title as well. They need to bolster their fire power in the front and this meet should give them an opportunity to get some practice with that. I think Elk Lake will have a dominating win at this meet. It will be interesting to see if runners like Sherman can duplicate last year’s form. Bedell and Bell have been solid all season and should continue to deliver. I see Holy Cross as the other team advancing. They have a nice pack and some strong leaders in Struski and Shean, although they miss McGovern’s front running from a year ago (and Galassi before him). They still seem to be clear favorites for the number 2 spot in the district.

 

Dunmore’s Matt Murray had a fantastic run at the Pre State meet and appears to be the class of the field this year in A. I think he is one of the few runners who will crack the top 7 while not wearing an Elk Lake Jersey. Debrino from Forest City and Gadhoke from Wyoming Seminary are other individuals who hope to get individual qualifying spots to Hershey.

 

Here are my state qualifiers.

 

1       Elk Lake        22

2       Holy Cross      74

 

1       Murray          Dunmore

2       Bedell          Elk Lake

3       Bell            Elk Lake

4       Oswald          Elk Lake

5       Sherman Elk Lake

6       Debrino Forest City

7       Legg            Holy Cross

8       Owens           Elk Lake

9       Gadhoke Wyoming Seminary

10      Struski         Holy Cross

11      Snyder          Mmi Prep

12      Owens           Elk Lake (6)

13      Westgate        Forest City

14      Shean           Holy Cross

15      Ortiz           Mid Valley

16      Nally           Mountain View

17      Mandarano       Dunmore

18      Benscoter       Elk Lake (7)

19      Gibbons Wyoming Seminary

20      Walsh           Holy Cross

21      Malay           Mmi Prep