2016 NCAA Indoor Predictions: Jarrett "Etrain" Felix

Yes, despite my horrible showing both indoors and outdoors last year, I’m back and ready to throw my hat in the ring once again. Although this is far from the PAHS scene where I usually make my home, it’s always fun to just get out there and compete. I’m very curious to see what my fellow, smarter writers have to say on this subject and perhaps just as interested to see who Zat includes in his posts that inspired Craig Lutz to come across our blog almost exactly a year ago …

In classic fashion, I dropped these predictions in order of events (event finals):

5000

1.     Ed Cheserek (Oregon)- Just can’t imagine him losing this. Maybe the only champ I’m confident in. I don’t think he’s ever lost a fresh race at NCAAs (and he’s barely lost any races tired).

2.     Marc Scott (Tulsa)- I think he can hang and kick his way to a top finish based on what I saw during XC. Has produced on the big stage before.

3.     Pierce Murphy (Colorado)- A real gamer with some top XC finishes to his name and a big 3k win at MPSF under his belt.

4.     Futsum Zeinasellassie (NAU)- Go back and forth on Futsum. I could see a situation where he goes toe to toe with Ches for a while, reminding us of that not so distance Footlocker Finals race, but I also feel like he might not have the speed to close if things go slow. Of course he ran what they tell me is the equivalent of a 3:56 mile at altitude so maybe I’m really underestimating his speed in this one.

5.     Thomas Curtin (VA Tech)- One of the few people with career wins over Ches. Closed in around 25 or so against Knight at ACCs apparently. Pretty beastly runner, but I’m a tiny bit worried about potential bias considering my main source of NCAA info attends the same school.

6.     Colin Bennie (Syracuse)- Lifted my XC fantasy team. Part of a Cuse team that has proven they have a little clutch factor in their blood. Still a little unproven on the track, but has one of the best SBs in the field and some excellent training partners as well.

7.     Morgan Pearson (Colorado)- Came through at NCAAs before. Super talented guy in a great program. Can’t imagine Colorado not having one guy in the top 8, so tried to cut my losses by throwing both in here.

8.     Ryan Walling (Ole Miss)- Fresh off a couple wins at SECs. Not a crazy far trip from Miss to Alabama and he won’t be riding solo at this meet as a couple teammates qualified as well. Kind of a toss up for these last couple spots so not much differentiating factors for me. Picked the localish kid with teammates and a fast SB.

DMR

I literally just have no clue. This will be the event that sinks my ship. Well, let’s be real I probably won’t have a ship, I’ll have more of a small raft that can barely support my weight. But it will sink my small raft. I don’t think Oregon runs an A team and there are way too many variables involved with that team so I left them out of the top 8 entirely, hoping for some less variable teams.

1.     OK State- I’ll bet on Chad as the freshest and most focused anchor (although he may not even end up the anchor) and the freshest, most focused and fastest team. I figure even if they don’t win, they seem like a relatively safe bet for a top 3 finish. And none of these teams has me enamored.

2.     Georgetown- This team seems like they have been ascending towards a big moment, kind of like PSU has over the years. The only question to me is their anchor leg, but I think Bile could hang in the top group and finish strong. In theory, the rest of their legs could be dynamite so I’d think they will at least be competitive throughout.

3.     Stanford- I’m hesitant to put these guys too high because I haven’t loved their season outside of McGorty. Coyle should have a little extra spark after last year’s sloppy 1200 leg and it’s hard not to at least root for the PA kid. I’m hoping they win, but tempering my bias a bit here.

4.     Ole Miss- I really like their first three legs. I’m not sold on their anchor, but I think this team could end up like last year’s Iowa State team (although they don’t have anything like Kemboi on lead off). They sacrificed some individual potential for this relay and that kind of all-in attitude can often pay dividends

5.     Villanova- Last year I went all in with Jordy and Nova for the win, but they ended up getting the baton too far back on the anchor leg. I’m worried that could happen again. Maybe this year they will lead off Jordy and let Rob go at it on the anchor leg, but I’m not sold that works out much better. If Jordy gets it close, he can win it with his kick against anybody. But can he get it close?

6.     Washington- Afraid to put a team with a 3:53 miler this far in the field. I just don’t even know where Yorks runs on this relay and I’m not sold on UW’s speed guys out front if they want Yorks to get the stick in a good spot. Yes, the anchor leg usually ends up a sit and kick fest, but the 800 leg and 400 leg and things like that are not. Last year if you didn’t have a leg well under 1:50 at 800m you were vulnerable and maybe Wash will fit that bill this year.

7.     PSU- The “home town” team is a mid distance powerhouse with a nice history in this event now. But they have two guys doubling which concerns me a bit. Although it wouldn’t surprise me to see this team in the top 4 coming down the final straightaway. Comes down to Makins for me mostly, but Harris could make a big statement as a frosh.

8.     Michigan- A fresh team with an anchor who can run 3:55ish could be an interesting squad. I know their anchor leg won’t give up and save it for individual events unlike some of these other guys who could somewhat phone it in if they end up out of it. So I’ll take a shot on UM. Shout out to Jalen Rose.

Mile

1.     Blake Haney (Oregon)- Not incredibly confident in this one. Seems like a default favorite after all the scratches. He’s run 3:56 this year which is a school record at Oregon (kind of a good school for track) and he’s closed in 51-52 to place well in championship races before. Plus he’s hung on to the pace at one of the fastest indoor miles of all time.

2.     David Elliot (Boise State)- If this was a PA HS prediction, I’d probably drop a David Elliot FTW prediction and be bold, but couldn’t bring myself to do that here. This guy has had two of the more impressive victories of the year at Wash and has a nice resume at past NCAAs. But is he championship material? That remains to be seen. Field is wide open though.

3.     Jonah Koech (UTEP)- Youngster with speed. He could end up stealing the whole thing like his teammate Rotich did a few years back (although that was at altitude I believe), but he’s also relatively inexperienced at this level. He’s in on altitude conversion which is a tricky game to judge (worked out fine for Soratos). He had a fantastic race at NCAA XC so I’ll put a little trust in him here.

4.     Henry Wynne (UVA)- He’s one at the High School level and has been rolling lately with some killer runs at ACCs. However, he will have the DMR to worry about. I feel like he’s got good odds of getting to the finals and, really, if you are in the final, you can’t hurt my scoring too bad. So that’s perhaps the most important part of these predictions. On the flip side, lots of buzz around this kid placing high or maybe winning it.

5.     Rob Napolitano (Columbia)- I like his championship resume within the IVY leg. I don’t know how that will translate here to NCAAs, but I think he’s a better race than time trailer which will help him overcome his seed. Also, he will have the advantage of running with the “I’m just lucky to be here” attitude which has led me to some of the best races of my life.

6.     Dillon Maggard (Utah State)- As I’ve said, I’m high on this conference. He’s another altitude convert so, again, we are playing with fire, but he’s broken 4 before for real, holding a 3:58.37 PR.

7.     Sam Prakel (Oregon)- The U of O had three finalists last year. Prakel has scored at NCAAs before. That’s nice incentive to project him as a scorer this year.

8.     Julian Oakley, Providence – Holds a 3:57 PR, held his own in a kickers race at Big Easts (around 4:20 for the winning time) and has some big race experience. I think he could sneak into the finals.

For the record Penn fans, I definitely think Awad could do damage in this race, but I think he’s way too variable for me to put him in my top 8 and potentially get a big point total counting against me. Just playing it safe out there.

800

1.     Clayton Murphy (Akron)- Really good at running rounds. 3^rd at a pair of NCAA champs. And I interviewed him for the blog once. I am a little nervous about the fact that he has never come through for the win and might leave it too late with his kick off a fast early pace, but I’ll take my chances.

2.     Shaquille Walker (BYU)- a 1:45 man with a nice NCAA/USA track record. I like the guys who have navigated the rounds in the past.

3.     Brandon Kidder (PSU)- Another very accomplished runner with a strong finish. He was the runner up at NCAAs last year over both Murphy and Walker and gave Duane Soloman a nice run at Millrose. He’s got an extra race in his legs from the DM though (where he may be anchoring for a shot at gold)

4.     Donovan Brazier (Texas A&M)- I think if Murphy doesn’t win it, Brazier may be the next best bet. He’s run 1:45 this year and ran a pair of 1:46s at SECs. But I’m a little worried about a freshman on this stage. 4^th is kind of more of a hedge in case of disaster. This kid is very talented and as my fellow writers had to remind me, one of my favorite runners ever won the 800 as a freshman not too long ago.

5.     Eliud Rutto (Middle Tennessee)- Another top notch 800m guy with 1:45 wheels who has been around the block more than a few times. I believe he has the fastest PR in the field.

6.     Goaner Deng, Minnesota – Experienced NCAA runner who has consistently been dropping time. Just missed the outdoor final so may have a little extra hunger come race day

7.     Drew Piazza (New Hampshire)- The kid is from a no name school/conference, but he’s won basically ever race he’s contested in the last year or so (including anchor legs on relays). Couldn’t help but lean towards the 1:47/2:21 proven winner even if his conference is a bit of a concern.

8.     Andres Arroyo (Florida)- He is still waiting on that big breakthrough at NCAAs, but this would be the tem for the junior. He PRed at SECs and ran right on Brazier. Plus Florida needs his team points.

3000

1.     Ed Cheserek (Oregon)- I’m assuming No DMR for Ches, so he will be trying to duplicate the Jenkins double of a year ago. This field is pretty loaded so if Ed isn’t on his game, somebody could run him off his game, but if we are playing odds here can’t feel confident in any one other person for gold.

2.     Justyn Knight (Syracuse)- If I had a bit more confidence in my NCAA instincts, this would be my guy. Knight will be 100% fresh, has run 3:56 hanging tough with Chris O’Hare and won’t be afraid of Eddy Ches on race day. Knight also beat out McGorty in one of the most loaded fields of the year at 3k and, in my opinion, is likely in his sweet spot at this distance.

3.     Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)- This guy is a beast and gave it everything he had against Ches in XC so we know he also won’t be afraid. He could end up taking pacing duties early and leave himself vulnerable for the kickers in this field, but he also could show up with a ton of strength and crush this one.

4.     Sean McGorty (Stanford)- Might take a herculean effort from him in the DMR the night before to get his team in the money and McGorty has struggled to win in kickers races against guys like Yorks and Knight (and Kidder). Of course he is a 3:53/7:48 guy with a proven NCAA track record. So I’m comfortable putting him pretty far up the list.

5.     Izaic Yorkz (Washington)- Another 3:53 miler who could have some gunk in his legs after the DM (which leg will he run though?). He doesn’t have quite as proven of an NCAA track record which is the only reason I’m not tossing him in the mix for the W. Not a lot separates these guys at this level and somebody has to be 5^th. So I opt for the guys with a little more proven clutch factor.

6.     Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)- Really great mile speed in a great program. Should have fresh legs as well.

7.     Patrick Corona (Air Force)- I think that conference is quietly loaded and Corona torched it a couple weekends ago. Really impressed with the guys marks this season. I feel like he’s really found his beach.

8.     Ahmed Bile (Georgetown)- Bile has nice wheels of his own and if things are slow early, he could end up kicking his way into the top 8. I believe he scored in the mile last year so he is ready for an NCAA final. That being said, he might have a DMR anchor leg in him that could make things a little heavier on race day.

2016 NCAA Indoor Predictions: Alex Fox

800

            Apparently no one told the class of 2019 that true freshman are not supposed to dominate an event, and if anyone did send out that memo, a few guys threw caution to the wind and did just that: dominate. Donovan Brazier ran the fastest time in the country in 1:45.93…he did that in January. Moreover, Brazier, Isaiah Harris, and Rob Heppenstall all won their respective conference title for the 800 (SEC, Big Ten, and ACC respectively). Throw Carlton Orange into that group, and you got a group of freshmen who kicking butt and taking names. Too bad for them, the upperclassmen running the 800 have formed a field with as much talent and depth as any in recent memory. Clayton Murphy is an All-American and World Team Qualifier in the 800. Brandon Kidder, Shaq Walker, Dylan Capwell, and Andres Arroyo have also received All-American honors in the half mile. Just for good measure, Edward Rutto and Hector Hernandez ran sub 1:47 this indoor season. That isn’t even the entire field, which exclusively includes runners who dipped under 1:48 this season. Given this ridiculously loaded field of 800 runners, how does one even go about making predictions? Well, I’ll give it my best try, using raw talent, experience, and the ability to survive rounds as my guidelines:

Top 8

1. Clayton Murphy (Akron)           5. Donavan Brazier (Texas A&M)

2. Brannon Kidder (Penn State)     6. Joseph White (Georgetown)

3. Shaquille Walker (BYU)            7. Dylan Capwell (Monmouth)

4. Isaiah Harris (Penn State)           8. Andres Arroyo (Florida)

Clayton Murphy has proven his ability to race multiple times over a weekend. He’s just got the strongest resume of anyone in the field, although it was not easy snubbing Kidder. Walker is uber talented, and he could very easily take this race. Harris has been super consistent all season and has improved seemingly every week, and I just like him a little more than Brazier. White is my sleeper in this race. This race is going to be amazing to follow, but from a predictor’s point of view, I miss the days of Edward Kemboi.

Mile

            I really like Edward Cheserek. Not only is he an amazing athlete, but picking him to win is just default. When he scratched the mile, I was comfortable with the fallback of picking Izaic Yorks, who ran 3:53, and was a shoo-in to be the favorite in the mile. He had other plans. I think he was intentionally just toying with us writers. Now what we have is a wide open field, with 16 athletes who are next to impossible to differentiate. There are a few names that can be separated from the herd: Blake Haney was an All-American in the 1500 outdoors as a true freshman and is the fastest seed in the race. Sam Prakel is an Oregon Duck, which is like having a PhD in being an All American Miler (See Daniel Winn and Johnny Gregorek). Tommy Awad ran 3:57 in Haney’s 3:56 race, and look oh-so fly doing it. Jacob Burcham has been pretty solid all year round, and looked strong taking down Chad Noelle at Big 12s in the DMR. Cole Williams and Amos Bartelsmeyer run for Georgetown, who are just always right there. Everyone else in the field is close, but may not have the credentials of those mentioned above.

Top 8

1. Blake Haney (Oregon)                5. Sam Prakel (Oregon)

2. Cole Williams (Georgetown)      6. Amos Bartelsmeyer (Georgetown)

3. Jonah Koech (UTEP)                  7. Jacob Burcham (Oklahoma)

4. Thomas Awad (Penn)                  8. Julian Oakley (Providence)

Haney is simply the favorite in a somewhat homogenous field. Koech sort of snuck under the radar all track season, but after his cross season, I think he’ll show his stuff on the oval. Awad is in real good shape, and Prakel closed his DMR anchor in 55 to ensure Oregon’s spot at this meet. There was a lot of “gut-feeling” that went into the rest of these predictions.

3000

            Finally, an event with the king! Unfortunately for Ches (and us predictors), this could be his third race of the weekend, and the talent in the field is formidable. A few weeks ago, I said if anyone could beat Ches, it was Sean McGorty. McGorty ended up losing that 3k in Iowa, but he did prove me right later with his 3:53. He ran 3:53 on the 3k training, it’s time to see what he can do in a 3k. Oh yeah, the guy who beat McGorty in that 3k? Justyn Knight, he’ll be in this race, and he’ll be fresh. Patrick Tiernan, the man with the honor of finishing behind Ches at XC Nats will also throw his hat in the ring, as will the other 3:53 runner in Yorks. Pierce Murphy and Ahmed Bile have shown their formidable closing speed, and should it be a hard kick to the finish, they’ll be right there as well. I feel like these prediction contests are just getting harder and harder…

Top 8

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)             5. Izaic Yorks (Washington)

2. Sean McGorty (Stanford)                6. Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)

3. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)                 7. Pierce Murphy (Colorado)

4. Ahmed Bile (Georgetown)               8. Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)

I so badly want to go with McGorty here. I say weeks in advance he can beat Ches, I stick to my guns, and he pulls off the upset? I look like a gosh-darn genius (shout out to Jarrett for the word choice). Never the less, Ches ran 7:40. He’s not losing the 3k. Behind him and McGorty, Knight will be all in on this race, and I can’t see anyone else in the field beating him given what he’s accomplished this season. Bile snubbed the mile for this event, and has the chops to do well. I will never understand Yorks’ rationale racing here, but 3:53 is convincing enough to get him top 5. I think Tiernan is better than 8^th, but I foresee him taking the lead in this race somewhat early on, and that could hurt him in the end.

5000

            Yes, finally. Ches wins this race, no ifs, ands, or buts. Now, what about second through eighth? I proclaimed Futsum Zienasellassie to be a threat in the 3k, which is subsequently failed to qualify for. It wasn’t my proudest moment, but I think this race says redemption. Tommy Curtain has beaten Ches head-to-head in a collegiate race; that’s more rare than a profanity leaving the mouth of Jarrett “ETrained into never swearing again” Felix. He needs no more qualification. Colin Bennie and Marc Scott both have super easy names to remember…oh, and they both broke 13:40 this season. Jake Leingang goes to Oregon, I heard they’re a decent distance school. Luis Vargas just seems to be popping up places, so he shouldn’t be counted out, and Morgan Pearson and Pierce Murphy are coached by Mark Wetmore, who is literally the yoda of collegiate distance running. Sure, this race doesn’t have all the sexiness of the 800 or 3k, but it’ll be fun regardless.

Top 8

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)                              5. Colin Bennie (Syracuse)

2. Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech)                        6. Jake Leingang (Oregon)

3. Futsum Zienasellassie (Northern Arizona)       7. Luis Vargas (NC State)

4. Marc Scott (Tulsa)                                            8. Jerrell Mock (Colorado State)

DMR

            We as running fans are certainly in for treat in the form of this DMR. Not only is the DMR just the coolest race (I can never articulate why, but it just seems to be a race people love), but this field is incredibly historic. The slowest seed in the race? 9:30.48 for Ole Miss (who by the way have a sub 4 miler on the 400 leg). Everyone else is sub 9:30. Let’s run down who I think should the favorites for this race: Oklahoma State are going all in, as Chad Noelle and Josh Thompson will both be fresh for this race, and they are the fastest seed in the race. It remains to be seen who will run what (I’m leaning towards Chad running the 1200 to get out with a lead), but they will be in contention regardless. Washington and Stanford have Yorks and McGorty respectively, and a solid team in front of them. Georgetown is Georgetown, and they have strong runners on every single leg; they may not have the flashiest anchor, but it’s hard to find a weak spot on that team. Ole Miss have a really strong team as well, and if Dominic and Engels race well on the 1200 and 800, that may be enough to put Sean Tobin in a position to win. Villanova has a strong team as well, and I think they best way for them to compete is for Jordy to get out in front on the 1200 and attempt to win the race wire to wire. I doubt they’ll do this, but it’d be fun to see. Penn State is another team that is simply stacked. Jordan Mankins ran a solid opening leg oh so long ago when they ran 9:27.20, and he’s improved his open 800 PR. Harris has been great this season, and is a force on the 800, and then we all know what Kidder can do on the anchor. Oh, and of course Oregon. No one knows what Ches will run, but with Haney and Prakel, they’ll compete with or without the King. As they say, what a time to be alive.

Top 8

1. Penn State           5. Ole Miss

2. OKST                 6. Washington

3. Stanford              7. Georgetown

4. Oregon                8. Virginia

I know that this may be controversial, but I think it’s so easy to forget how well Penn State ran way back when. Harris and Mankins have gotten considerably better since that 9:27.20, and I think Kidder can bounce back from the 800 prelims (as can Harris) to deliver on the anchor. Oklahoma State is going all in on the race, but with Chad Noelle seemingly more focused on his year beyond indoor and with Thompson’s inexperience in races of this magnitude, they just don’t what it takes to get the W for me. As for Oregon, this is a bit of a shot in the dark. We don’t know if Ches is running. If he is running, we don’t know how fast the 5k will play out and if he’ll be able to bounce back that quickly. I figure sticking them in the middle is the best way for me to minimize potential points. This may be a bit of a cop out, but we here at Etrain are cutthroat in our prediction contests.

2016 NCAA Indoor Predictions: Dylan Jaklitsch

Note- Dylan had a very busy week of classes which is why he has no explanation. Luckily, he was nice enough to give us some predictions.

800

1. Shaquille Walker (BYU)
2. Brannon Kidder (Penn State)
3. Donavan Brazier (Texas A&M)
4. Clayton Murphy (Akron)
5. Isaiah Harris (Penn State)
6. Hector Hernandez (Texas A&M)
7. Drew Piazza (New Hampshire)
8. Goaner Deng (Minnesota)

Mile

1. Henry Wynne (UVA)
2. Blake Haney (Oregon)
3. Jacob Burcham (Oklahoma)
4. David Elliott (Boise State)
5. Sam Prakel (Oregon)
6. Amos Bartelsmeyer (Georgetown)
7. Jonah Koech (UTEP)
8. Thomas Awad (Penn)

3000

1. Sean McGorty (Stanford)
2. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
3. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)
4. Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)
5. Izaic Yorks (Washington)
6. Willy Fink (Eastern Michigan)
7. Jefferson Abbey (Colorado State)
8. Morgan McDonald (Wisconsin)

5000

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
2. Marc Scott (Tulsa)
3. Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
4. Colin Bennie (Syracuse)
5. Thomas Curtin (Virginia Tech)
6. Luis Vargas (NC State)
7. Blake Nelson (Washington)
8. Jerrell Mock (Colorado State) 

DMR

1. Oklahoma State
2. Penn State
3. Oregon
4. Stanford
5. Washington
6. Mississippi
7. Georgetown
8. Virginia

2016 NCAA Indoor Predictions: Caleb Gatchell

800

If you’ve been paying attention, you probably noticed that the 800 is crazy fast this year. Flotrack has been comparing it to the legendary field in 2011, and I think that’s a valid comparison. I’ll go a step farther even, I think it’s better than that field, and I don’t think it’s that close. Brazier and Murphy are two unbelievably talented runners, and while Robby Andrews was great, I don’t think he was on the same level. Robby had great closing speed, Murphy and Brazier are just great. I mean, how do you argue with sub 1:46 indoors and making a world championship team? As good as Robby was, he never pulled either of those off. Anyway, I’ll step off my soapbox and actually give some predictions now. Brazier is really hard to pick against because of his consistent high 1:45 to low 1:46 type marks. He’s also winning races. However, there are four other guys in this field at sub-1:46.5, so don’t think Braziers time makes him untouchable. Clayton Murphy has had a heck of an indoor season and all signs seem to indicate that he’s peaking at exactly the right time. The other thing to consider is that he’s strong. He has run 1:46 low and 3:57 this year, so don’t expect anyone to run away from him. He’s going to be around late in the race, even if Brazier and Hernandez take it out in 49-50, and then he has the strength to finish well. Andres Arroyo and Isaiah Harris are also sub 1:46.5, but I think they’re both wildcards. Arroyo has had trouble getting to finals and running well in finals when he gets there, so that’s a definite concern. Harris is a freshman, and that’s tough to know what to do with. Experience is crucial when it comes to NCAAs, and I feel like that trumps talent in a lot of cases. Which brings me to Eliud Rutto and Shaq Walker. They both have a crazy amount of talent, and I fully expect them to mix it up at the front in the final. Don’t forget, Shaq wasn’t far off of Murphy at USA’s last year. And there’s Brannon Kidder. He was only 2^nd in the final outdoors last year, so it’s not like he has a whole lot going for him. That’s sarcasm folks. Kidder may well be one of the most talented runners in this field, but if we read what the heat sheets say instead of running the races he’d barely be an all-American. That’s how crazy this field is. When it comes down to it, I have to take Murphy because he’s the perfect combination of talent and experience. Other than that, I don’t actually have a clue.

1. Clayton Murphy (Akron)
2. Donavan Brazier (Texas A&M)
3. Shaquille Walker (BYU)
4. Eliud Rutto (MTSU)
5. Brannon Kidder (PSU)
6. Drew Piazza (New Hampshire)
7. Andres Arroyo (Florida)
8. Isaiah Harris (PSU)

Mile

So, I’ll save some space here. If you want to see all my thoughts on the mile read my W2W4 post.

1. Blake Haney (Oregon)
2. David Elliott (Boise State)
3. Jonah Koech (UTEP)
4. Henry Wynne (UVA)
5. Jacob Burcham (Oklahoma)
6. Cole Williams (GTOWN)
7. Thomas Awad (Penn)
8. Prakel (Oregon)

3000

In breaking news, this 3k is also ridiculously stacked. The fact that it took 7:53 to get in is a pretty good indication in and of itself, but then you look at what these guys have done this year and your jaw drops. Ches being Ches ran 7:40 and 13:35 as well as a 3:55 split on a DMR. I guess that’s a solid year. McGorty and Yorks ran 3:53 at MPSF, and they’re both under 7:51 which is pretty dang quick. Knight and Tiernan have been forces in the NCAA ever since October when xc officially got under way, and Vargas is another guy sub 7:50. Then we have guys like Morgan McDonald, Pierce Murphy, and Ahmed Bile who have all quietly had very solid seasons. I think this race is going to be fast from the start with Tiernan taking it out the same way he did in xc. Then we’re going to see a show the last 800 as everyone with wheels gears up and tries to take down a tired King Ches. It’s going to be fun, and you’re not going to want to miss this one. In the end though, I think the King will reign supreme.

1. Edward Cheserek (UO)
2. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)
3. Sean McGorty (Stanford)
4. Izaic Yorks (UW)
5. Pat Tiernan (‘Nova)
6. Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
7. Morgan McDonald (Wisco)
8. Jefferson Abbey (Colorado St.)

5000

I think this race is the one I’m least sure about this weekend, other than who is going to win. There are a lot of intriguing names, whether it be Thomas Curtin who has had several good seasons that he hasn’t been able to finish with a top 5 spot now, or Futsum who ran a great 5k in December, but hasn’t run anything super impressive since. I’m a big fan of Marc Scott here. He’s been running really well the last couple seasons, and as we saw at Wisco during cross, the man can close a race. If anyone can scare Cheserek in the last 300, it’s Scott. Bennie also showed some good speed with his mile earlier this year, so I think he’ll be a major factor late. I’m also a big fan of Pierce Murphy. Veterans do well at NCAAs, and he fits that bill perfectly. He’s been here before, and he’s got the job done before. He’ll do it again. I think the finish to this race is going to be one of the most exciting all weekend. I don’t see it going out super hard, although Curtin has been known to take races out, and there are a few great closers in the field.

1. Edward Cheserek (UO)
2. Marc Scott (Tulsa)
3. Colin Bennie (Syracuse)
4. Pierce Murphy (Colorado)
5. Futsum Zienesellassie (NAU)
6. Jake Leingang (UO)
7. Morgan Pearson (Colorado)
8. Ryan Walling (Mississippi)

DMR 

This race is going to finish Day 1 in style. 11 of the 12 teams are seeded at sub 9:30 which is just insane. The depth in this event this year is unreal. One thing I always look at is how fresh a team is, and there is one team that really jumps out: Oklahoma State. They have two of the best milers in the NCAA, and one of the best 800 runners too, and not a single one of them is running an individual event. They are all in on this relay, and I can’t see anyone beating them. Whether they put Noelle or Thompson on the anchor, both have shown they can close with anyone, and whichever one is on the 1200 certainly isn’t going to be run away from, barring a catastrophe like we had last year. Stanford and Washington will also be fresh as anyone in an individual event for them isn’t running until day 2. That makes them both very dangerous as well. Then you have Penn State, Michigan, and Virginia, all of whom have some really great talent on their squads. Fresh or not, they are teams to be reckoned with. And by the way, Michigan will be fresh. I have to imagine Villanova is going to be in the thick of it as well. Jordy on the lead-off is deadly, and Denault can run with almost anyone as well. Finally, we have Oregon. Some people think Ches is going to come back after the 5k. Frankly, I think he could do it, but he won’t. They didn’t run him at MPSF, and I think they believe they’re good enough to win without him. Are they? Probably not. But I think they’ll still score. Blake Haney is an awfully good miler, and Prakel is pretty dang talented as well.

1. Oklahoma State
2. Washington
3. Stanford
4. Penn State
5. Virginia
6. Villanova
7. Oregon
8. Michigan