2017 Indoor State Predictions: Mile

By Jarrett Felix

Mile

Heat 1

Joseph Cardie, Springfield (Delco)

Colin Mihalak, Coatesville

Sam Owori, Seneca Valley

Sean Brown, Roman Catholic

Callahan Lennon, HG Prep

Brendan O’Toole, North Penn

Jacob Shulte, Bishop McCourt

Jarrett Boyd, Freedom

Kevin Dineen, HG Prep

Thomas Matsumura, Southern Lehigh

As I’ve said before, there is usually a medal contender that comes out of the slower section of the mile. Last year we had two medalist come out of this section. But the pace has to get out honest enough in this heat to make things work. Not sure who the guy to do the job in this section will be, but I’d imagine someone will step up in the role given some of the resumes of these guys historically.

The 4x8 comes before the mile in the order of events so we might see Brendan O’Toole and Sam Owori doubling in this section. If memory serves, no one attempted the 4x8-mile double last indoor state meet, so it’s unclear exactly how hard/easy it is to go for this double. Both of these guys are big talents (I like Owori as a sleeper), but if they run the 4x8 beforehand, my gut says there won’t be enough time to double back into medal contention.

That leaves my top two on paper as Colin Mihalak and Sean Brown. Mihalak had an awesome race at Meet of Champs and was a breakthrough performer this XC season. Brown is starting to get seasoned as a state level competitor and he’s a very talented miler. He had his best race of the season at meet of champs as well. He has nice 800 wheels and could be a gamer on the last lap under the right circumstances.

Heat 2

Noah Affolder, Carlisle

Sam Affolder, Carlisle

Tristan Forsythe, Winchester Thurston

Evan Addison, LaSalle

Brandon Hontz, WC Rustin

Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts

James Abrahams, Haverford

Eric Kennedy, Kiski

Sam Snodgrass, South Fayette

Josh Higgins, Cumberland Valley

The Affolder boys come in as heavy favorites in this one. Noah cruised to a 4:07 victory at the Millrose Games and his brother Sam ran a blazing fast 4:13 in the same race. The top two challengers on paper, Josh Hoey and Nick Dahl, both scratched out of the event in favor of other focuses. So, in theory, this is the Affolder boys race to lose. They could be in store for a 1-2 finish just as the Hoey boys were a season ago and their team title hopes hinge on a big performance here.

It’s worth noting that Carlisle does have a 4x8 entered as well. It’s unclear whether both guys will be involved in the 4x8. And will they both be running all out to try and get the win in that event or just grab points? Carlisle is the most compelling mystery of the bunch this weekend. If I have to guess, I’m saying Noah will run 4x8-Mile-8-DMR (seems absurd, especially given his injury concerns he mentions, but that’s what these entries look like) and Sam will run 4x8-Mile-DMR-4x4. Wow. That’s a busy schedule.

Assuming this is right (it’s probably not, but whatever it’s the best guess I have right now), the mile will be the second event for each of these Carlisle boys. So they will at least be a little tired. That opens the door for a possible upset if somebody has a great day. The biggest challengers in my mind are Tristan Forsythe, Evan Addison and Brandon Hontz.

I’m already on record as saying I think Addison is having a fantastic year and I put him in the Coyle category at this stage. He could be on the 4x8, but I don’t think they run him in this race if he’s going in tired. They’d just save him for the DMR. Addison had a big win at Ocean Breeze this season, he’s had an 8:46 3k and he’s split in the 1:55 range outdoors. Plus, he’s got a little something extra to prove after his DNF at XC States.

Forsythe has medaled in this event before. He’s run 4:17 for the full mile and he was a top 5 runner in A during XC. At Millrose, he went head to head with the Affolders and was left behind Sam by 4 seconds and Noah by 10. However he will have a freshness advantage this time around that he didn’t have last time.

I really like the way Hontz has raced this year. He hasn’t necessarily dropped any fast times (4:23 is solid, but it’s a long way off Noah and Sam’s PRs), but I think if he goes out and races like he did all season, he will get a big PR and be in the mix out front. I could definitely see him running around 4:17 in this event and posting a clutch performance. In addition, he’s got something to prove after being bounced in the prelims of his first state performance last spring.

Let’s take a look at the rest of the hot heat as they are all medal contenders in their own right.

Liam Conway is a 4:15-1:54 guy who has posted nice marks in limited races this year. I believe he is coming back from an injury at the end of XC which makes me a little nervous to jump on the bandwagon. But it’s hard to deny this junior is a heck of a talent with great speed. He’s still on the hunt for his first state medal. This would be a big moment for him to prove he has that clutch factor.

Eric Kennedy is a proven miler, having run medal worthy times in the 1600 during the spring. He ran 4:23 in a fast race at Spire to get this hot heat spot, but I believe this will be his first trip to the indoor state championship. He’s got the talent, he’s a senior and he is peaking at the right time for the second straight season so he’s tough to count out.

Sam Snodgrass is really heating up. He won at the TSTCA meet against a really strong western field and then followed it with a fantastic run on South Fayette’s winning DMR. He’s a junior in his first major track championship appearance. However, in his two most recent trips to XC states, he’s finished in the top 12 in AA two years in a row.

James Abrahams ran a strong 4:23 in pursuit of Addison at Ocean Breeze and holds 4:20-1:56 type PRs from last spring. The Haverford Senior was excellent during XC, dipping under 15:50 in the 5k. However, he has not raced a ton this indoor season. That could make him fresh or could mean his focus is more toward outdoors. Josh Higgins rounds out the hot heat thanks to his big performance on this exact track last Thursday. The senior has good 800 speed and also was sub 16 in XC so he has the chops to perform well. But how will he handle the pressure of the hot heat?

Prediction

There’s too much up in the air around the 4x8 for me to avoid a chalk pick. I do think the pace won’t be anything crazy considering, regardless of their 4x8 participation, the Affolders will have a busy schedule ahead of them. That opens the door for some kickers to make a late play for a medal. A lot of these guys can kick, great 800 speed almost across the board, so sorting out the 3-8 spots could end up being quite fun.

Ultimately, I think the Affolders will lock up the 1-2, but I think Addison makes it interesting. I think it’s going to be a redemption performance from him after XC states. Fingers crossed. I have Forsythe at 5^th, but he ran a very smart race given the fast pace at Millrose. If this race is faster than I think, keep an eye out for him picking guys off at the end.

1.      Noah Affolder 4:12.77

2.      Sam Affolder 4:16.00

3.      Evan Addison 4:16.22

4.      Brandon Hontz 4:17.31

5.      Tristan Forsythe 4:17.96

6.      Sam Snodgrass 4:22.59

7.      Liam Conway 4:23.48

8.      Colin Mihalak 4:24.60

The Running Diaries: Chapter Thirty

Chapter Thirty

Ben Havleck, May 2016

He stared up into the stands. Even this early, they were packed with spectators. It was a larger crowd than he had ever raced in front of and that sent a shiver down his spine.

Ben entered the stadium tentatively and walked past a race official onto the track. His spike bag hung over his shoulder, bouncing up and down with each step. At about the 20 yard line, he settled into a seated position on the warm turf. He tucked one leg in toward his knee and extended his hamstring. It was a little tight. You’re fine, he scolded himself, Don’t get psyched out.

After a few more stretches, he popped up and decided to start his dynamic drills. He cycled through each one, carefully swinging his arms, diligently focusing on proper form. Once complete, he looked round for his water bottle to continue hydrating. A wave of dread crashed over him as he realized he had forgotten it in the cafeteria. Distracted by one of Jimmy Springer’s adoring fans. Beginning to feel panicked, he wandered through the check in zone until he found a water jug and some paper cups. He drank some and then splashed more across his face and arms. Still, he was becoming increasingly uncomfortable with these adjustments to his usual routine.

Next, Ben moved onto his strides. He started with a comfortable, long and controlled sprint that covered the length of the football field. He pulled up just before the end zone and gradually eased to a stop. As he stood and recovered, he watched the girls’ race immediately before him take shape. A girl in dark blue was in the lead, flanked by a trio of pursuers wearing green, red and black.

“Let’s go, Quinn!” He cheered and clapped twice as the runners passed. He could feel a slight pull on his throat from his supportive efforts and so he made it a point to grab another cup of water on his return stride. 

Finally, it was time to put on his racing spikes. He slipped them from his bag and held their light frame in his hand. His palms beginning to grow sweaty, he laced up his shoes. 

“Small School 3200!” A man called from the corner of the check in tent. Hastily, Ben slapped a pair of number eight stickers on both hips and jogged across to join the gathering beside the track’s 100 meter mark. A small cluster amassed quickly as runners emerged from all directions.

He recognized a few of his competitors from the state cross country championships, most notably Terrence Griffin of Wyomissing. Ever since Ben had lost to Griffin at the Muhlenberg Invitational, he had been motivating himself for their inevitable rematch. He flexed his fingers subconsciously as a snow covered track flashed across the surface of his mind.

As they gathered together to jog ahead for the start, some of the runners exchanged a nervous nod or hello, but most were quiet and stoic. In total, Ben counted 23 competitors in the race.

The start will be crowded, he noted to himself as he surveyed his competition, But once someone strings it out, there's only a few guys who can handle 70s. 

He toed the line. He leaned forward. He let out one last deep breath. 

Bang!

The starter’s pistol fired into the warm morning air. Ben got off the line well, running with his elbows extended to ward off anyone crashing down on him. He snuck his small frame onto the rail and hugged tight to the first turn. 

Through the opening lap, he remained pinned to the inside, maintaining the shortest distance possible around the oval as planned. He found the pace incredibly easy; and a hurried glance at the clock told him why. They had marched through their initial rotation in 74 seconds. That was nearly 4 seconds slower than Ben’s pace during his personal best run at Coatesville a month earlier.

It’ll pick up, he thought as the pack entered their second lap, Just be patient. 

He felt a small push in his back as the runners behind him jockeyed wildly for position in the congestion. Fortunately, it wasn’t enough to upset his balance, but it did unnerve him.

The pace continued to be pedestrian, allowing a variety of ability levels to stay in contact with the leaders. All around Ben, runners weaved through traffic, dancing in the crowd, searching for ideal position. A few tripped in the tangle of feet, but there were no falls. 

After three laps of uninspired tempo, things were getting increasingly physical. Ben could sense the danger in his position, trapped against the railing, surrounded by flailing bodies. But he was loath to give up his inside hold and run the longer distance.

C’mon, somebody needs to pick it up, he thought angrily. They were coming up on the mile, the half way point of the race, yet still no one had decided to string out the field with an injection of pace. Ben’s mind whirled as he considered his options. He hadn’t planned on taking the lead this early. Knowing that it would take more energy to lead than follow, he had been trying to save his surge to the front for the final two laps. But the longer they jogged along conservatively, the more valuable a strong finishing kick would become. And that play just wasn’t in his playbook.

After one more lap, I’ll mak- But his internal planning was disrupted as a runner in white and black jockeyed with another in red, the former checking the latter to his the inside. Careening off balance, the boy in red ran smack into Ben, knocking him momentarily off the track. 

Alright eff this.

He fought his way back onto the track and surged forward. He busted loose from the rail, seizing a small gap in order to move to the outside. Four quick steps and he was at the front. 

Mark Miller, May 2016

It was fantastic weather at Shippensburg. The clouds slightly obscured the morning sun. The air was almost perfectly still with the exception of an occasional cool breeze, gratefully accepted by the trio of sophomores exiting the parking lot. Even from a distance, Mark could see the bleachers were packed with family, friends and athletes.

“So I guess this meet is like a big deal or something?” Mark chuckled as Ian stepped to his left hip. He too was staring ahead at the stadium.

“It’s 9:25 now, so the small school boys are probably just about to start up. We’ve got like 10 minutes until large schools.” Tom clicked the lock for his car and led the march to the entrance. At the gate, Mark and Ian chipped in for Tom’s ticket and, after their hands were stamped, they trekked around the outside of the track. The small race was well underway, with a short, black haired boy leading the charge. A few runners were hobbling slowly off the back of the pack, unable to handle the pace.

“How fast you think these guys are running?” Ian asked Mark as they passed. “We could totally beat some of these kids if we were in this classification. What a joke.”

The trio lined the fence surrounding the track, stopping their meander to catch the conclusion of the race. The smaller boy was fighting hard at the front of the pack. He was opening up a small lead as the pace continued to take its toll on his competition. Only two runners were even within striking distance behind him. Mark kept his eyes on the clock, trying to estimate the runner’s pace. “I think that lap was like a 67 maybe? So they’re running like 9 minute pace?”

“Yeah-for that lap. But what did they start at? Because total time was like 7:06 when he passed by.” Ian considered his hand briefly. “That’s only 9:28 pace. So they must have started slow.”

“Did you just do that math in your head?” Tom asked, sounding impressed.

“Yeah,” he reached into his pocket for a pair of sunglasses, “I feel like you guys always treat me like I’m an idiot when actually-” As he tried to raise the sunglasses to his face, the edge of frame caught the top section of the fence in front of him. Knocked from his grip, the glasses soared through the air before landing almost ten feet away on the surface of the track. One of the lens had popped out of its hold.

“What were you saying, Ian?”

“ONE LAP TO GO! Havleck, Griffin, McKenzie!” The announcement came booming over the P.A. system as the lead pack of runners surged by. The dark haired boy at the front was straining to keep his advantage. At the 200 meter mark on the far side, suddenly the runners in 2^nd and 3^rd sprang into action. They launched into a full sprint, leaving the initial leader fighting through quicksand to keep pace.

Ben Havleck, cont.

“ONE LAP TO GO! Havleck, Griffin, McKenzie!”

Ben passed the clock and listened to the bell ring beside him. The crowd was on their feet and cheering, blocking out the noise of his increasingly heavy breathing. He knew he had opened up a gap. But by how much? It likely wasn’t significant, but he was at least encouraged that he struggled to hear the breathing and footsteps of his opposition at the same volume he had a few laps earlier. His adrenaline pulsed as he tried to turn up his sprint another notch, praying he could find the gears to bring the race home. The title on the tip of his tongue.

As he turned toward the back stretch, a new wave of fans greeted him. Although this crowd was slightly smaller, the cheering still overwhelmed his eardrums. Unable to discern any information through listening, he resisted the overwhelming urge to look over his shoulder at the trailing group. Just sprint. Sprint as hard as you can. He was now approaching the last turn. Only half a lap stood between him and the state championship. Ben put his head down slightly and tried to rally his legs for one last surge.

Then, as he approached a quieter section of the track, he heard it. Footsteps. Turning over quickly. Much quicker than his own. He pumped furiously, his head swinging wildly, desperately trying to float forward. A runner in a white jersey flew by him and blasted into the final straightaway, almost as if Ben was standing still.

Although they never touched, the blow struck Ben as if he had been punched in the chest. As much as he tried to fight back, the pain in his legs was crippling him and the motivating forces he had been using to fight back, previously extracted from hope and confidence, were draining from his mind. He hobbled further toward the finish, weakly pumping his arms, enthusiasm lost. Then, when he thought his suffering could not be worse, he felt the anguish of another, final pass. This time, it was his rival Terrence Griffin.

“It’s going to be McKenzie! 9:17! 62 seconds for the last 400 meters!”

Ben stumbled off the track and onto his back. The cheers from the packed stands continued to roar around his addled mind as he struggled for breath. The last mile was still a blur with few discernible details. He remembered making his surge. Holding the lead tenuously in his hands. And then struggling home. Not much in between. None of his precious numbers or statistics floated to him. Just feelings. Impatience. Excitement. Dejection.

Gradually, other runners came sprinting across the finish. The ground became scattered with others who were too exhausted to stay on their feet. He sat up and looked around at all those competitors he had just beaten. And yet somehow, he had never felt more defeated.

What To Expect & The Weekend Review (DMR Madness!)

By: Garrett Zatlin

WHAT TO EXPECT
As NCAA's gets closer, there's a few things I'm hoping to accomplish. They include...

• Establishing a podcast/RoundHouse
• Creating a spreadsheet of times with data from TFRRS
• NCAA predictions (when the time gets closer)
• Returning to "The Commit" series (after PA states)
• Discussing our PA alumni this season (most likely after NCAA's)

THE WEEKEND REVIEW

Deneault Memorial
Mile
It took a few tries, but James Gowans is back under four minutes once again! The Cornell senior took to the flat-track and was able to run a 4:02 which converts to a 3:59. Eric Holt (Binghampton) was runner-up with a 4:07 which converted to around a 4:04.

Unless Gowans can run something faster at Heps, he won't make NCAA's. He currently sits at 26th in the nation.

PA ALUMNI
Griffin Molino, Sophomore, Syracuse: 4:20.43 (7th)
Dominic Hockenbury, Freshman, Syracuse: 4:26.13 (14th)
Mitchell Coakley, Junior, Lock Haven: 4:28.35 (18th)

3000
PA ALUMNI
Addison Monroe, Junior, Lock Haven: 8:54.31 (11th)
Dan Lorah, Junior, Lock Haven: 9:31.30 (23rd)

5000
PA ALUMNI
Jace Kreamer, Freshman, Lock Haven: 16:07.28 (8th)
Jonathan Buytenhuys, Junior, Lock Haven: 16:40.21 (9th)

DMR
Syracuse attempted a DMR with Hubbard, Tooker, and Palamer. You would think that a relay with those guys would be able to sneak under 9:40. Unfortunately, the Orangemen had no one to run with and they ended with a time of 9:58.

Illinois Orange & Blue Open
Mile
Running unattached was Illinois freshman Jonathan Davis who ran an excellent time of 4:01. However, this was on a flat-track which means that his time would (most likely) convert to a sub four minute mile! Not bad for the young guy.

3000
Dylan Lafond (Illinois) got himself a win with a time of 8:09. It was converted to an 8:04.

UCS Invitational
Mile
Henry Wynne (Virginia) took another crack at the mile again this past weekend. He was able to bounce back and earn himself a victory, but he failed to qualify for NCAA's as he ran a time of 4:00 (which was given a flat-track conversion from a 4:03).

Assuming he runs the mile at ACC's, Wynne has only one more chance to make nationals.

PA ALUMNI
Cooper Leslie, Freshman, William & Mary: 4:16.90 (6th)

3000
Todd Gunzenhauser, Sophomore, UNC-Charlotte: 9:21.65 (29th) <-- ran unattached

DMR
It was absolute madness in the DMR as we saw some of the best teams in the nation go head-to-head in the pursuit of a fast time. After the dust settled, Ole Miss emerged victorious with a killer time of 9:34. That time was given a flat-track conversion of 9:26.55! The Rebels now lead the NCAA and could be argued as the favorites to win the title. Shout-out to Alex Fox who has been high on this Mississippi squad for the entire winter season.

Arkansas was three seconds behind Ole Miss in a time of 9:37 which was converted to a 9:30. They were anchored by Jack Bruce who has shown to be a reliable and promising piece of this Razorback program.

The final team that is set to make the national championships was certainly a surprise. No one expected Villanova to run a converted time of 9:30! The Wildcats were anchored by redshirt freshman Logan Wetzel who must have split an incredibly fast time when you consider that his mile PR was 4:09 this season. The Wildcats now sit at 6th in the nation.

Alex Wilson Invite
DMR
The event of the weekend! I expected a lot of teams to run fast times at Alex Wilson, but I didn't expect this many to do so.

Let's start with the surprise winners: the Indiana Hoosiers. Historically, Indiana hasn't pursued the DMR all too often, so for them to run 9:28 is pretty darn impressive. It helps that they had a 1:46 man (Daniel Kuhn) on their relay, but a lot of credit needs to go to their redshirt freshman Kyle Mau who showed incredible poise and took the win! He's been improving a lot this season and has proven to be a winner.

Behind the Hoosiers was Stanford who was able to run 9:28 without McGorty and Fisher! Tai Dinger and Jack Keelan have been promising this season. They've run against the big names in the NCAA and have yet to have a poor performance. They may not have the name recognition of McGorty or Fisher on their relay, but they'll contend for a top three finish if they get Keelan close enough.

The final team to run under 9:30 was Oklahoma State who leaned on a big anchor leg by Josh Thompson. I'm a big fan of Oklahoma State in the DMR this year. I believe that if Thompson can get the stick close enough to the leaders, that he can close and earn the Cowboys the win. We'll see how that plays out at NCAA's...

Other notable performances included...

• Minnesota - 9:30 (NCAA #7)
• Georgetown - 9:31 (NCAA #11)
• LSU - 9:31 (NCAA #12)
• BYU - 9:31 (NCAA #13)
• Michigan - 9:32 (NCAA #14)

Keep in mind that only the top 12 relays qualify for nationals. BYU and Michigan will need to run faster at their conference championship to qualify. LSU and Georgetown should be nervous about where they sit in the standings.

It's currently 12:05 and I haven't seen the performance list pop up yet. Last year it looks like it came out around 2:30 PM based on comments on the blog. I'm going to get in a long run and I'll be back for the live performance list review show. You can expect it on sometime around 3-4 o'clock this afternoon, depending on when the list comes out.  Get in your live Q&A!

UPDATE: Now 3:11, still don't have any word on performance list yet. Obviously, gonna have to continue to push the show back until we get the list. My apologies. Hopefully 4 o'clock will be showtime, maybe 4:30 or 5, but I think if they don't get it out by then the nervous runners on the bubble may riot.

UPDATE #2: http://pa.milesplit.com/articles/202974-meet-entries-released-ptfca-indoor-state-championship

We've got 'em! I'll be on live at 4:25 PM to take your questions and discuss the entries. If you have questions hit us on twitter, email or comment section.

Projected State Cut Offs

These are my projections with scratches and conversions. Let me know if you guys catch any errors, repeats or have questions about my thinking behind the scratches. Note that this is just as estimate. I'm usually close but I never go 100% with accuracy. So stay tuned for the actual sheet that is sure to come out soon.

4x800m (16 Teams, SQG – 8:19.66, ET Projection – 8:14.50)

		School	Time	Date	w/ Conv	A/B
1	1	GFS	7:54.68B	11-Feb	7:54.68'	A
2	2	Pennsbury	7:57.11B	11-Feb	7:57.11'	A
3	3	State College	7:58.55B	11-Feb	7:58.55'	A
4	4	Carlisle	8:01.19'	15-Jan	7:58.79'	B*
5	5	CB West	8:05.34'	10-Feb	8:02.94'	A
6	6	LaSalle	8:06.05'	4-Feb	8:03.65'	A
7	7	CB East	8:09.03'	18-Feb	8:06.63'	A
8	8	Abington	8:07.79B	29-Dec	8:07.79'	A
9	9	Penn Wood	8:08.31B	4-Feb	8:08.31'	A
10	10	Seneca Valley	8:09.94O	18-Feb	8:09.94'	A
11	11	O'Hara	8:13.48'	4-Feb	8:11.08'	A
12	12	North Penn	8:13.99'	10-Feb	8:11.59'	A*
13	13	CR South	8:14.40'	10-Feb	8:12.00'	A
14	14	Shanahan	8:11.8hB	6-Feb	8:12.04'	B*
15	15	Radnor	8:16.78'	18-Feb	8:14.38'	A
16	16	Bensalem	8:16.90'	18-Feb	8:14.50'	A
17	OVER	DT East	8:16.95'	18-Feb	8:14.55'	A
18	OVER	Boyertown	8:17.11'	10-Feb	8:14.71'	A
19	OVER	DT West	8:17.39'	18-Feb	8:14.99'	A*
20	OVER	Mount Lebanon	8:16.39O	18-Feb	8:16.39'	A
21	OVER	Wissahickon	8:19.97'	10-Feb	8:17.57'	A*
22	OVER	Methacton	8:20.44'	18-Feb	8:18.04'	A
23	OVER	Cheltenham	8:18.56B	28-Jan	8:18.56'	A*
24	OVER	Ephrata	8:21.04'	4-Feb	8:18.64'	B*
25	OVER	Cumber Valley	8:21.94'	28-Jan	8:19.54'	A

History says we can expect little to no scratching for this one. So for that reason, I’m assuming everybody is entering a team and only the top 16 teams will be accepted. That being said, there’s some times that I think could run “B” squads and, therefore, may end up scratching. That would be Bishop Shanahan and O’Hara.

The #16 team is Bensalem, who dropped an 8:16.90 at Meet of Champs to pull out a clutch qualifying spot by just 0.05 seconds over DT East. I’m assuming that with 16 teams now being accepted, we will have two heats of this event. So that may mean the PTFCA accepts a couple extra teams. Personally, I think DT East, Boyertown and DT West could/should get in as they are all very close between 8:14.55 and 8:14.99. A 19 team final with one heat of 9 and one of 10 would be perfectly cool with me. Stick 10 in the fast heat and have the cut off an 8:10 to be a fast heat team.

That makes sense to me, but let’s see how it plays out.

Since 25 teams have the SQG, you could maybe have a two heat final with 12/13 in each heat and let everybody in. Would be nice to see Cumberland Valley and Ephrata get a shot. But I think 25 is just too big of a number for the PTFCA to do it.

Mile (20 Individuals, SQG – 4:31.73, Etrain Projected Cut Off – 4:30.77)

		Name		School	Time	Date	w/ Conv	Scratch?
1	1	Noah	Affolder	Carlisle	4:07.24B	11-Feb	4:07.24'	N
2		Josh	Hoey	Shanahan	4:09.26B	28-Jan	4:09.26'	Y
3	2	Sam	Affolder	Carlisle	4:13.45B	11-Feb	4:13.45'	N
4		Nick	Dahl	G Friends	4:14.68B	28-Jan	4:14.68'	Y
5	3	Tristan	Forsythe	W Thurston	4:17.13B	11-Feb	4:17.13'
6		Evan	Addison	LaSalle	4:19.25B	28-Jan	4:19.25'	Y
7	4	Phoenix	Myers	Seneca	4:18.96*O	12-Feb	4:20.56'
8		Nate	Henderson	McCaskey	4:20.05*	28-Jan	4:20.95'	Y
9	5	Brandon	Hontz	WC Rustin	4:23.40'	11-Feb	4:22.70'
10	6	Liam	Conway	OJ Roberts	4:23.54B	11-Jan	4:23.54'
11	7	James	Abrahams	Haverford	4:23.62B	28-Jan	4:23.62'
12		Ryan	James	O'Hara	4:24.71B	28-Jan	4:24.71'	Y
13	8	Eric	Kennedy	Kiski	4:23.14*O	12-Feb	4:24.74'
14		Joe	Cullen	Wyomissing	4:26.20'	11-Feb	4:25.50'	Y
15		Brendan	Price	LaSalle	4:25.55B	28-Jan	4:25.55'	Y
16		Matt	Eissler	Pennridge	4:25.75B	28-Jan	4:25.75'	Y
17		Gavin	Inglis	O'Hara	4:26.47'	12-Feb	4:25.77'	Y
18	9	Sam	Snodgrass	S Fayette	4:26.00O	18-Feb	4:26.00'
19	10	Josh	Higgins	C Valley	4:25.9HB	16-Feb	4:26.14'
20		Connor	McMenamin	Souderton	4:26.86'	11-Feb	4:26.16'	Y
21	11	Joseph	Cardie	Springfield	4:26.24B	7-Jan	4:26.24'
22	12	Matt	Scarpill	CB South	4:26.94'	10-Feb	4:26.24'
23		Spencer	Smucker	Henderson	4:26.57B	28-Jan	4:26.57'	Y
24	13	Colin	Mihalak	Coatesville	4:27.29'	18-Feb	4:26.59'
25		Seth	Slavin	PleasValley	4:26.04*B	7-Jan	4:27.64'	Y
26		Patrick	James	O'Hara	4:28.46'	11-Feb	4:27.76'	Y
27		Noah	Beveridge	Butler	4:26.19*A	21-Jan	4:27.79'	Y
28		Ben	Bumgarner	Waynesburg	4:26.33*Y	21-Jan	4:27.93'	Y
29		Ryan	Campbell	CR North	4:28.70'	10-Feb	4:28.00'	Y
30		Will	Griffen	Cheltenham	4:28.32B	29-Dec	4:28.32'	Y
31	14	Sam	Owori	S Valley	4:28.42O	28-Jan	4:28.42'
32	15	Mark	Brown	G Salem	4:27.13*O	12-Feb	4:28.73'	N
33	16	Eric	Kersten	Pennsbury	4:28.86B	7-Jan	4:28.86'	N
34	17	Sean	Brown	RCatholic	4:29.63'	18-Feb	4:28.93'
35		Jed	Scratchard	Pennsbury	4:29.65'	14-Jan	4:28.95'	Y
36		Hudson	Delisle	Quakertown	4:29.66B	7-Jan	4:29.66'	Y
37		Rusty	Kujdych	Neshaminy	4:30.44'	30-Dec	4:29.74'	Y
38		Matt	D'Aquila	L Merion	4:30.49'	10-Feb	4:29.79'	Y
39	18	Callahan	Lennon	HG Prep	4:30.16B	28-Jan	4:30.16'	N
40		Avery	Lederer	Penncrest	4:30.90'	10-Feb	4:30.20'	Y
41		Brendan	O'Toole	North Penn	4:30.44B	7-Jan	4:30.33'	Y
42	19	Ryan	Barton	DT West	4:30.62B	21-Jan	4:30.62'	N
43	20	Jacob	Shulte	Bishop McCourt	4:29.17*Y	18-Feb	4:30.77'
44		Bryan	Keller	CR North	4:31.07B	28-Jan	4:31.07'	Y
45	OVER	Stephen	Gray	S Lehigh	4:29.56*B	7-Jan	4:31.16'
46		Sam	Early	CR North	4:32.24'	18-Feb	4:31.54'	Y
47	OVER	Jarrett	Boyd	Freedom	4:31.54O	18-Feb	4:31.54'
48	OVER	Kevin	Dineen	HG Prep	4:31.70B	28-Jan	4:31.70'	N
49	OVER	Cameron	Binda	Greens Salem	4:30.25*Y	7-Jan	4:31.85'
50	OVER	Thomas	Matsumura	S Lehigh	4:31.91B	29-Dec	4:31.91'	N
51		Jack	Downing	Henderson	4:31.94B	28-Jan	4:31.94'	Y
52	OVER	Matt	O'Neill	Norwin	4:30.45*B	11-Feb	4:32.05'
53	OVER	Jonah	Powell	Grove City	4:30.76*Y	18-Feb	4:32.36'
54	OVER	Noah	Curtin	Mercyhurst	4:32.65O	18-Feb	4:32.65'
55	OVER	Kyle	Burke	Ab Heights	4:33.58'	11-Feb	4:32.88'

Mile is going to be interesting because of all the potential for relay scratches, 800 scratches and 3k scratches. I’ve got a ton of guys scratching out, but you will have to look and see for yourself whether you agree with each of them. This spot moves back and forth a lot during the season. But it appears some guys with the SQG will end up at home. However, coaches make sure you enter everybody who is close. You never know.

800m (24 Individuals, SQG – 2:00.13, Etrain Projected Cut Off – 1:59.10)

Overall	Proj	Name		School	Time	Date	w/ Conv	Scrath?
1		Noah	Affolder	Carlisle	1:54.72'	15-Jan	1:54.12'	Y
2	1	Ryan	Thrush	Brookville	1:54.43O	4-Feb	1:54.43'
3	2	Josh	Hoey	Bishop Shanahan	1:54.50B	7-Jan	1:54.50'	N
4	3	Sam	Affolder	Carlisle	1:56.32'	28-Jan	1:55.72'	N
5	4	Nick	Wagner	Penn Trafford	1:56.38B	7-Jan	1:56.38'
6	5	Joe	Cullen	Wyomissing	1:56.51B	21-Jan	1:56.51'
7		Jake	Claricurzio	CB West	1:57.35'	4-Feb	1:56.75'	Y
8	6	Peter	Cooke	Radnor	1:56.87B	7-Jan	1:56.87'
9	7	Matt	Eissler	Pennridge	1:56.89B	7-Jan	1:56.89'
10	8	Collin	Ebling	Pottsville	1:56.92B	7-Jan	1:56.92'
11	9	Hudson	Delisle	Quakertown	1:57.68'	4-Feb	1:57.08'
12	10	Luke	Everidge	Central Dauphin East	1:57.18B	28-Jan	1:57.18'
13	11	Christopher	Cameron	Wissahickon	1:57.37B	28-Jan	1:57.37'
14	12	Liam	Conway	Owen J Roberts	1:57.44B	28-Jan	1:57.44'
15		Ata	Shahideh	CB East	1:58.09'	4-Feb	1:57.49'	Y
16	13	Marc	Motter	CB East	1:57.55B	28-Jan	1:57.55'	N
17	14	Jed	Scratchard	Pennsbury	1:57.60B	28-Jan	1:57.60'	N
18		Nick	Feffer	State College	1:58.43'	28-Jan	1:57.83'	Y
19		Brandon	Hontz	West Chester Rustin	1:58.52'	10-Jan	1:57.92'	Y
20	15	Derek	Jones	Cathedral Prep	1:57.92O	2-Feb	1:57.92'
21	16	Kamil	Jihad	Neumann Goretti	1:58.61'	28-Jan	1:58.01'
22	17	Isaiah	Bailey	Penn Hills	1:58.15O	18-Feb	1:58.15'
23	18	Matt	Kraus	William Tennent	1:58.77'	18-Feb	1:58.17'
24	19	Frankie	King	Greensburg Salem	1:58.38O	18-Feb	1:58.38'
25	20	Logan	Yoquinto	Bishop Shanahan	1:58.41B	28-Jan	1:58.41'	N
26	21	Dennis	Manyeah	Penn Wood	1:59.12'	10-Feb	1:58.52'	N
27	22	Austin	Padmore	Milton Hershey	1:59.20'	28-Jan	1:58.60'
28	23	Daniel	Santiago	North Penn	1:58.75B	7-Jan	1:58.75'
29		Bryan	Keller	CR North	1:59.38'	10-Feb	1:58.78'	Y
30	24	Dave	Whitfield	Bonner	1:59.10B	28-Jan	1:59.10'
31	OVER	Robert	Dupell	St. Joe's Prep	1:59.16B	28-Jan	1:59.16'	N
32	OVER	Derin	Klick	Lebanon	1:59.25B	7-Jan	1:59.25'
33	OVER	Aqeel	Bacchus	Bensalem	2:00.04'	21-Jan	1:59.44'
34	OVER	Dylan	Binda	Greensburg Salem	1:59.55O	12-Feb	1:59.55'
35	OVER	Seth	Phillips	Mifflin County	1:59.4hB	19-Jan	1:59.64'
36	OVER	Jarnail	Dhillon	Upper Darby	1:59.71B	28-Jan	1:59.71'
37		Nathan	Henderson	JP McCaskey	2:00.40'	28-Jan	1:59.80'	Y
38	OVER	Zach	Ehling	North Allegheny	1:59.81O	14-Jan	1:59.81'
39	OVER	Calvin	Willie	St Joe's Prep	2:00.43'	4-Feb	1:59.83'
40	OVER	Austin	Howell	Pennridge	1:59.91B	28-Jan	1:59.91'
41	OVER	Donovan	Myers	Seneca	1:59.95O	7-Jan	1:59.95'
42	OVER	Brett	Zatlin	Great Valley	2:00.13B	21-Jan	2:00.13'
43	OVER	Michael	Clark	Methacton	2:00.13B	28-Jan	2:00.13'
44	OVER	Javier	Linares	Pennsbury	2:01.10'	10-Feb	2:00.50'	N

The 800 is crowded man. I feel bad. There’s so many fast guys and not only are they going to have sweat out the weekend, but they are also going to have to fight it out in some of the slow heats. This is going to be a crazy event come states. The big scratches to keep an eye on are the Affolders. No clue what they are doing. Claricurzio is another one up in the air. Pennsbury making it in for the DMR could lead to another scratch. I think the cut off ends up right around 1:59 flat but no guarantees.

3,000m (12 Entries, SQG – 8:59.43, Etrian Projected Cut Off – 8:57.30)

		Name		School	Time	Date	w/ Conv	Scratch?
1		Nick	Dahl	GFS	8:30.62B	21-Jan	8:30.62'	Y
2	1	Ben	Bumgarner	Waynesburg Central	9:16.14*O	12-Feb	8:41.14'
3	2	Nathan	Henderson	JP McCaskey	8:43.79'	11-Feb	8:42.99'
4	3	Rusty	Kujdych	Neshaminy	8:44.73'	7-Jan	8:43.93'	N
5		Evan	Addison	LaSalle	8:46.99'	7-Jan	8:46.19'	Y
6	4	Connor	McMenamin	Souderton	8:48.00'	18-Feb	8:47.20'
7	5	Seth	Slavin	Pleasant Valley	9:28.05"B	28-Jan	8:50.05'
8	6	Zach	Lefever	Ephrata	8:51.35'	11-Feb	8:50.55'
9		Will	Griffen	Cheltenham	9:30.41"B	28-Jan	8:52.41'	Y
10	7	Aaron	Pfeil	South Fayette	8:52.92O	18-Feb	8:52.92'
11		Ryan	Campbell	CR North	9:31.23"B	28-Jan	8:53.23'	Y
12	8	Noah	Beveridge	Butler	8:56.20O	14-Jan	8:56.20'
13	9	Sean	Rahill	William Tennent	8:57.30'	4-Feb	8:56.50'
14	10	Avery	Lederer	Penncrest	9:35.08"B	21-Jan	8:57.08'
15		Matt	D'Aquila	Lower Merion	9:35.14"B	28-Jan	8:57.14'	Y
16	11	Matt	Scarpill	CB South	8:58.00'	18-Feb	8:57.20'
17		Gavin	Inglis	O'Hara	8:58.09'	13-Jan	8:57.29'	Y
18	12	Brendan	O'Toole	North Penn	8:58.10'	4-Feb	8:57.30'
19	OVER	Ben	Bunch	CB West	8:58.72'	4-Feb	8:57.92'	N
20	OVER	Carlos	Shultz	Conestoga	8:59.39'	11-Feb	8:58.59'
21	OVER	David	Haines	North Pocono	8:59.43'	28-Jan	8:58.63'
22	OVER	Tyler	Rollins	DT West	8:59.67'	18-Feb	8:58.87'
23	OVER	Brian	Mass	CB West	8:59.68'	10-Feb	8:58.88'	N
24		Ryan	James	O'Hara	8:59.71'	13-Jan	8:58.91'	Y
25	OVER	Eric	Kersten	Pennsbury	9:00.62'	4-Feb	8:59.82'	N

The 3k is one of the few individual events that the PTFCA sometimes extends to let other guys in. We do have a couple guys currently left out who have hit the SQG. Some of these guys may scratch as well (which CB West guys are on the DMR? I’m not sure either are currently) so there’s a very outside chance they put in all the SQG guys. However, like I’ve said with the other events don’t get your hopes up.

The big event that should help with scratches is the DMR. Lots of top guys here overlap with the DMR. That opens the door a bit for people to squeak in.

DMR (12 Teams, SQG – 10:40.73, Etrain Projected Cut Off – 10:44.61)

		School	Time	Date	w/ Conv	A/B
1	1	Carlisle	10:21.45'	15-Jan	10:18.95'	A*
2	2	GFS	10:23.15B	14-Jan	10:23.15'	A
3	3	O'Hara	10:33.65'	18-Feb	10:31.15'	A
4	4	CB West	10:34.17'	18-Feb	10:31.67'	A
5	5	CR North	10:38.19'	4-Feb	10:35.69'	A
6	6	WC Henderson	10:36.1hB	6-Feb	10:36.34'	A
7	7	State College	10:36.3HB	16-Feb	10:36.54'	A
8	8	LaSalle	10:39.87'	18-Feb	10:37.37'	A
9	9	Lower Merion	10:38.0hB	6-Feb	10:38.24'	A
10	10	DT West	10:40.60B	20-Jan	10:40.60'	A
11	11	W Chester Rustin	10:43.46'	18-Feb	10:40.96'	A
12	12	Cheltenham	10:47.11'	18-Feb	10:44.61'	A
13	OVER	Pennsbury	10:45.14B	7-Jan	10:45.14'	A
14	OVER	Holy Ghost Prep	10:47.28B	29-Dec	10:47.28'	A
15	OVER	Boyertown	10:51.49'	18-Feb	10:48.99'	A
16	OVER	CB East	10:51.78'	10-Feb	10:49.28'	A*
17	OVER	Seneca Valley	10:52.72O	11-Feb	10:52.72'	A
18	OVER	Quakertown	11:00.65'	10-Feb	10:58.15'	A
19	OVER	North Penn	11:01.44'	14-Jan	10:58.94'	A*
20	OVER	Father Judge	11:02.08'	12-Feb	10:59.58'	A
21	OVER	Haverford	11:02.43'	31-Jan	10:59.93'	A

As expected, the meet of champs shook up the state qualifying picture. A few teams better their marks and others broke into the mix. In total, half of the qualifying teams ran the meet of champs including the last 4 teams to get into the meet. Pennsbury, who didn’t run at MoCs, appears to now be sitting on the outside looking in at the 13 spot. However, they and Holy Ghost Prep both have outside shots of getting into the state meet if they extend the field out to the 13-14 spots like they have in the past. As with the 4x8, I expect no teams here to scratch. And honestly, we are probably going to see most if not all of these team’s absolute “A” squads on race day.

Shout out to Boyertown for an awesome DMR performance at Meet of Champs. They sit at 15 and 18 right now in the relays, just barely out of both races. I hope they can get into one of these meets as they’ve been a terrific team this year.