Monaco Madness: 1500m Preview

The world record in the 1500 is an absurd 3:26.00. To break the record somebody has to run 3:25.xx. I'm still wrapping my mind about that concept. It honestly seems impossible to me.

But not to Asbel Kiprob. The defending world champ has been pointing to Monaco all year for a run at the world record. His PR of 3:27.72 is the 4th fastest mark in history behind just Morceli, Bernard Lagat and El G.

Kiprob is just 25 years old but already has an Olympic gold and 2 other world championship golds. He is coming off an impressive 800m win in 1:43.34, putting him at the world lead with David Rudisha, a guy you might have heard of.

Kiprob loves to race at Monaco. He ran 3:28 and 3:27 there each of the last two years (the year before that he ran his 800m PR in Moncao clocking 1:43.15). He also has already run 3:29 from way back in May at Doha. Since his early season victory, however, he has struggled with tough losses in Eugene and Rome. To run 3:25, Kiprob will not be able to sputter. He needs to average about 55 seconds per lap and cover the track in just 205 seconds.

Kiprob pursuing the record ensures a fast pace for anyone who dares to keep it close. That could mean massive PRs for a loaded field. On the start list today are Silas Kiplagat, Matt Centrowitz, Johan Cronje, Abdelatti Iguider, Leo Manzano, Ayanleh Souleiman, Ilham Ozbilen, Nick Willis and Aman Wote.

To give you an idea, this field includes every medalist in a world championship or Olympic final from the last 3 years with the exception of Makloufi. Plus you have the Olympic gold and silver medalists from 2008. You also have the last two world indoor champions in the 1500m in Iguider and Souleiman and the current world leaders at 800m, 1500m, and Mile (Kiprob and Souleiman).

I think Souleiman is most poised for the upset (or at least a massive PR). He ran a blazing 3:47.32, the fastest mile since Webb ran the American Record in 2007, at the Prefontaine Classic in Eugene, defeating Kiprob and Kiplagat among others. He has excellent closing speed and boasts a 1:43.63 800m PR plus a bronze medal at 800 in Moscow. The kid is just 21 years old and has already run 3:30.31 for 1500m and holds pretty much every Djibouti record in existence on the track.  I believe he is due to smash his PR and put himself in contention for a 3:28ish type mark similar to Mo Farah a year ago.

This is a great opportunity for our Americans as well. Centrowitz has quietly run 3:32 for 1500m already this year and he added a PR at 5k running within 10 seconds of his old man's former AR. He didn't look brilliant at 800m last weekend, but the 8 has never been Centro's game. Despite his spectacular kick, he is only a 1:45 guy by PR at 1:46 isn't a surprise by any means. Besides Lagat never broke 1:46 but he is the second fastest 1500m man ever. I'm not reading too much into this latest mark.

His PR sits just south of 3:32 at 3:31.96 and he has a huge opportunity to break that. Running in the 3:30.xx range seems within his ability, a mark which would put him in historic company for the US All Time list. 3:29.30 is the AR held by Lagat while 3:30.54 is the PR of US legend Alan Webb. Centrowitz has 2 (almost 3) world medals at 1500m in his only 3 world appearances. If he can lower his PR you can make a strong case that he is the best 1500m man in US history.

Leo Manzano, master of US championships, is also currently set to toe the line in Monaco. His season best is 3:34.40 last week in Glasgow, a solid mark, but certainly not a pace fast enough to even be mid pack in a field of this caliber. Manzano looks much stronger than he did a year ago but keep in mind that he ran 3:33.14 a year ago making 2013 his second fastest year of his career. His "slowest year" since 2008 is actually 2012 where he never broke 3:34 but did take home what matters most: a silver medal in London. So for all the talk of Manzano being inconsistent and unpredictable, Leo has actually been pretty consistent in terms of his overall seasons: somewhere in the 3:33s and top 3 in the US.

Silas Kiplagat has been in Kiprob's 6 foot 3 shadow for some time so he would love to break into the 3:28s and upset for the win. He has been a consistent performer around 3:29-3:30 in recent years with a 2009 world silver medal and a series of impressive diamond league wins.

Nick Willis was the 2008 Olympic Silver medalist and has a PR at 3:30 from 2012. A few small tactical errors may have cost Willis some big time wins indoors at the Millrose Games and the World Indoor Championships, but in a fast, strung out field, I will be interested to see if he can pick off scalps over the last lap and grab another PR.

One last thing of note, if Kiprob can't quite get the world record on the 18th, he will also be chasing his country's national record of 3:26.34, held by none other than American Record holder Bernard Lagat. Lagat ran that record back in 2001.