Train Tracks: #3rdworldproblems

So I have hours a day on a train to do whatever I want and so I did what anyone would do during that string of time. I wrote out the last 8 years worth of medalists. That gives me a list of roughly the best 200 guys in the state over the last 8 years and I think it can tell us a lot about what is to come. As an actuary to be I am believer in studying stats and trends from the past and projecting smartly forward to predict the future.

So I'm going to be putting out a series of posts on what I found interesting. Let me know your thoughts. Also as usual I'm typing this on my phone and don't have internet access until I get home so my stats may be slightly off, but I think you will find things reasonably accurate. Also we are talking strictly aaa here unless I mention something to the contrary just to prevent confusion.

Firs topic: Is district 3 getting screwed?

I have been wondering for a long time how much of an effect running the state course back to back weeks can have on a group of runners and teams. The state course is brutal. My high school coach was a strong believer that you need at least a week to recover from that place ever since we blew up at Carlisle a week after pre states.

First fun fact for you: no team that has run the pre states race as gone on to win a state title later that fall (might be true for individuals too if not for mark Dennin). It could be a coincidence for sure but some very strong teams like na and Ohara have run hard there in years when they were state title contenders but ended up missing out on state gold.

But really that stat could easily be a fluke. There is so much time in between meets that there is a high probability the results are not correlated for reasons of fatigue and the like.

So now we turn our attention to district 3 itself. Over the past 8 years, d3 has had a total of 18 medalists, the third most behind just 7 and 1. That's not surprising. What is surprising is the drastic difference between these districts. D1 has 92, d7 has 38 and d3 has just 18. Over the same time span d12, basically just the pcl, has had 16 medalists. Keep in mind that is closer to a 16 out of 150 than 16 out of 200 total because the pcl didn't join the piaa until 2008.

Over this same 8 year period d3 has never had a state champion, team or individual. In fact they have not had a top 5 team in the state and have not anyone finish higher than 4th representing their district as individual. That may seem high but d11, d6, d10 and d9, all much smaller than district 3, have all had top 3 finishers within the last 8 years.

The d3 individual champion has medaled just 62.5% of the time. That's crazy considering d1s champ has medaled 100% of the time over the same period, finishing no worse than 11th during the same period with 3 district and state champs.

The top finisher out of all district 3 runners at states has been outside the top 5 in 6 out of 8 years, outside the top 10 4 times and outside the top 20 once. Over the same span the top d1 finisher has never been worse than 4. And won the race 7 times. District 7 has never been outside the top 10 in that 8 year span and 2013 was their first time outside the top 5 since 2007.

Alec Kunzweiler was the only district 3 medalist for a 2 year span in 2011-2012. You could say the same for district 8 and ean disilvio if they didn't essentially dissolve the district.  

And it's not like d3 is a bad district. Clearly they have studs across the board. Since 2007 they have a multitude of state champs in distance. McNally got one, Kareis came within striking distance of one, brehm has two now. Andrew rotz got one, Kunzweiler and cvalley got one same goes for cedar crest. Nate mcclafferty had two seconds in that window. Kevin hull did as well. In terms of state champs outdoors since 07 they are right on par or ahead of d7 production and certainly much farther ahead of the other districts than their xc results suggest.

So what gives? It seems like d3 is getting screwed here! (Pardon my language parents out there, I didn't think hoodwinked was a strong enough adjective).

But wait a minute. D3 aaa may have struggled but what's interesting is their aa counterparts are having no issues. Since 2006, beveridge won two titles, Steve welsh won, gruschow won, todaro won ... That's 5/8 for district 3!

Hmmmm so, maybe it's not a disadvantage? Maybe my harsh language in front of our kind hearted parents was unjustified? I just need to take a time out in the corner and chill out?

Ultimately, I actually think my theories are right here (shocker, etrain thinks he's right what else is new?). I do think there is a problem. Yes the aa numbers are evidence it can be done, but where are the great aa teams? Where are the brutal district battles for individuals to win titles and get qualifying spots?

You have to conserve energy at the state course the week before. Think about how dominate beveridge and gruschow were in their title years? Gruschow won every race at districts in track, I think he didn't have issues at districts in cross.

Meanwhile look at pat Reilly. That guy was a stud, sub 9:20 3200m man. He went out hard at districts and got himself a district title. At states the next weekend the kid was crippled. Soph Jeff groh pulls the huge upset win and the next weekend has nothing left to give. Alex galli, Zach barker, the Conrad Weiser team in general. If you look at the results, I bet more guys have off days out of d3 then anywhere else. It's a crap shoot which d3 guy will have a good day rebounding from states. Why do you think McNally, Hurston, and Kunzweiler had disappointing finishes after they won the title? Logan Mohn after a top 10 finish the one year? I could go on but I feel like I'm boring people.

And then you get the random medalists who had their off day at districts the week before: Tim Moyer, Michael beegle, Zach Johnston, Kunzweiler the first time.

Last year there were some bright spots. Brehm, gebhardt, and nissley all medaled. Seiger was close. Three of those guys are back this year to break the trend. And I bet they could care less about the stats I'm throwing at them right now.

And hey, maybe that makes all the difference?




Ps thanks for reading this post despite that 13 year old girl title.