50. Dan Quigley
49. Dan Filler
48. Jack Carmody
47. Liam Galligan
46. Seth Slavin
45. PJ Murray
44. Nick Feffer
43. Grayson Hepp
42. Gabriel Allgayer
41. Zach Skolnekovich
40. Cooper Leslie
39. Patrick Grant
38. Eric Kennedy
37. Colin Wills
36. Andrew Hanna
35. Nick Wolk
34. Josh Higgins
33. Kyler Shea
32. Joe Maguire
31. Tucker Desko
30. Cody DiVecchio
29. Matt Wisner
28. Brian Delaney
27. Bryce Descavisch
26. Todd Gunzenhauser
25. Jake Susalla
24. Ryan Barton
23. Matt Kravitz
22. Connor McMenamin
21. Kevin Lapsansky
20. Rock Fortna
19. Will Loevner
18. Jacob Stupak
17. Jack DiCintio
16. Will Kachman
15. Rob Morro
14. Ryan James
13. Spencer Smucker
12. Alex Milligan
11. Henry Sappey
10. Griffin Mackey
9. Josh Hoey
8. Zach Seiger
7. Mike Kolor
6. Domenic Perretta
5. Nathan Henderson
4. Nick Dahl
3. Dominic Hockenbury
2. Jake Brophy
1. Jaxson Hoey
Discuss!
Just some guys within the list I think are worth keeping an eye on. I think Pj Murray is a hit or miss for this season, due to his loss of essentially his whole team. He's shown incredible range from running a 4:23 to running sub 17 on the hills of Hershey. If his mental fortitude can serve him well, he's due for a big season, especially now that he can be in the spotlight. However, if he cannot find it within himself to continue the intense training from a silver medalist team by himself, I see him struggling, resulting in a down year for Stoga. Hepp had a fantastic season, and to me, it looked as if he might've been injured towards the season, running 4:37 and 4:55 towards the end of outdoor. However, after a 4:55, he blew me away still running a very impressive 4:24 full mile (4:22ish 1600). Though 4:37 is by no means a bad time, the fact that he ran 4:26 indoor I think shows that he's fully capable of running sub 4:20. If Hepp has the ability to hang with Dahl for workouts and train with him during the summer, we could see a monster 1-2 for GFS. Grant from Lasalle doesn't have some of the speed on the trails as some of these other guys, (16:31 pr, vs a 15:56 for Hepp) but he is extremely consistent, both on the track and during the fall. Though he simply needs to drop some time to become higher up on the list, he shows extreme potential with his consistency and in a Lasalle program, he could turn into a real low stick for them. I also think Desko has major potential, having him seen grow and drop time so quickly in such high-caliber meets, he's showing that he's not done improving, and if he can translate his track success to the trails for his senior year like his brother (similar to what Train pointed out), he could be amazing, competing at the highest level. Lastly, I think its scary that if Alansky hadn't gotten injured his sophomore year, there could very easily be 5 DTW runners on this list. Having a whole scoring team in a preseason top 50 is scary good. Train, it's awesome that you've been doing this and its cool you picked Hoey over Brophy to change up the norm. Hoping everyone has a great season and good luck to all!
ReplyDeleteI would take Sappey over Josh Hoey in the rankings
ReplyDeleteI'm looking for Gunz and Fortna to improve in the rankings throughout the year. Gunz is an ace and Fortna is consistent. Dahl is the perfect choice for the number 4 spot. However, I'm not sure how much weight his (expected) championship season wins will hold in comparison to his non-independent opponents. I'm a little worried about guys like Murray and Wills. They both lose multiple big names to graduation and the Hoey's moving to West. They will have to adjust quickly to being "the guy". Just my thoughts in general.
ReplyDeleteTeam Rankings?
ReplyDeleteThey will happen, but probably not for about a month or so, I'm planning to take a little vacation from posting while I prepare a few things. I'm confident that my fellow writers will be making some great posts in the interm, however.
DeleteIf Hepp can stay with Dahl for workouts during this fall, he can use that 4:22c speed to really make a crazy 1-2 punch for GFS. I think Wills will struggle also, but Murray has the potential to be big. He reminds me of Marston, and if he can keep up the intense training without his teammates, he can be big. He's got nice range from a 4:23 to sub 17 on the Hershey course. Crazy to think DTW could've easily had 5 on this list had Alansky stayed healthy his sophomore year.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't have Peretta that high, nor Kachman. You see Kachman having had a down year while still on the rise, I really saw it as the beginning of a downfall. Look, the kids faster than most, but it would take a lot from him to win me back over for him to be deserving a #16 spot on this list. Also, I think for now, Desko is appropriately placed, but I believe he can move very far up as he possesses the same talent his brother did ( if not more) and if he can translate the success he had from the track on to the trails, he'll be a force to reckon with.
ReplyDeleteTop 8 on sheer numbers
ReplyDeletePR
1-Brophy-15:08
2-Dahl-15:29
3-Jaxon Hoey-15:30
4-Mackey-15:37
5-Kravits-15:39
6-Seiger-15:40
7-Hockenbury-15:44
8-Lapsansky-15:48
9-Sappy-15:48
Average
1-Mackey-15:37
2-Brophy-15:41
3-Jaxson Hoey-15:42
4-Hockenbury-15:57
5-Seiger-16:10
6-Allgayer-16:10
7-Dahl-16:12
8-Kravits-16:16
9-McMenamin-16:17
10-Henderson-16:18
11-Sappy-16:18
Time at States (no independents)
1-Brophy-15:24
2-Hockenbury-16:01
3-Sappey-16:07
4-Mackey-16:09
5-Henderson-16:11
6-Seiger-16:11
7-Di Cintio-16:14
8-James-16:15
Returning All State Team members (in no order)
Brophy
Henderson
Hockenbury
Hoey (Jaxson)
Mackey
Sappey
Seiger
Guys that showed up on all 4 lists
Brophy
Hoey (exept PIAA list)
Hockenbury
Mackey
Sappey
Seiger
Now I know you cant only go on numbers alone there is alot more to take into account than that but those guys that showed up on all oft those lists, those are my top 6 guys right there. Not in that order necessarily but those are the guys to watch in my opinion
Lol how is Mackey's average and PR 15:37...
DeleteAgreed. That post had some kind of agenda based on some kind of favorites.Put em on the course and let em race.
Delete..
There is no way Mackey's average is right that has to be a typo. Other than that I like this. Obviously not perfect no Henderson but the 4 lists gets rid of the Paul Short issue. I thought that Sappey was low on the list and this gives him more credit. I would agree that this holds no grounds if it was just one list but the collection of all 4 is really interesting PRs are just how fast they can run flat out but includes course discrepancies. Average pulls a collection of all the races from the season. PIAA list puts them all on one course and the All state team includes opinions of other people. to be on all 4 is pretty cool. So the different course problem is addressed in that
DeleteYou can't go on raw times for XC. Those times for that Lehigh course are 45-60 sec faster than the same runner's times at Hershey Parkview.
ReplyDeleteDiCintio should've been higher than 17... He has the 7th fastest returning Hershey time, has versatility on the track (1:59/4:24/9:28), and also ran a 15:37 5k on the track this spring.
ReplyDeleteOverall, the list was well put together. Thanks for all the time and effort you put into the PA distance running scene!
It drives me crazy when people discuss who's better in
ReplyDeletexc using times as the basis. Really? All courses are different and not even certified. Plus some runners peak at the wrong time for mid-season Invitationals, which are cool, but don't really have any meaning for end-of-season big meets.
Would anyone be kind enough to sort these into leagues and divisions?
ReplyDeletesmucker, james and hoey dropped huge times as freshmen. I believe these guys are very talented and are under a great program and have great coaches. However, I do not see ALL THREE dropping significant times as sophmore. It so difficult to maintain the level they achieved as freshmen and to do it again and drop more times as sophmore would be extraordinary. Perhaps one may drop significant time but not all 3. I wish them the very best and hope they prove me wrong.
ReplyDeleteFYI, Ryan James is a sophomore, but I still agree with you. I doubt that either freshman will improve much. Being bigger, stronger and more experienced is really overrated.
DeleteExpecting Hoey to peak, I think Smucker's still got some improvement left in him. Ryan is still progressing well, and is a rising junior, so I think we'll see some great running from him as well.
Deletemy bad. I thought James was a freshmen. As I stated, they will all improve next year. I expect one to really drop 30-45 secs off of their PR and the other two perhaps 10-15 secs.
DeleteLogan Caruso for Bradford Area should make some noise. He ran 4:35 and 9:52 on the track as a Freshman this spring. Also ran 17:11 on a hilly Ridgway course.
ReplyDeleteLooks like he's got some talent, but looking at his frosh xc yearn he rarely faces good competition in big meets, and isn't in the most competitive district. Throw him in d1, d3, d11, etc. and he'd probably get more attention and would most likely run some faster times. In the meantime, I don't think he could drop a jaw-dropping time, but he's consistent, and will probably win his district with ease.
DeleteHere are some people who didn't make the list but might be on there at the end of the year:
ReplyDeleteBen Heintz, CRN (they always have someone, and having run 4:23, Heintz looks like the guy)
Liam Conway, OJR (rising soph ran 16:10 at Paul Short and 1:57/4:28. He does look fairly developed, but at least has a year of HS racing under his belt)
Rusty Kujdych, Neshaminy (traditionally not a great program, but the kid ran 9:35 for the 32 as a freshman, which indicates a lot of potential)
Casey Conboy (Baldwin has had something of a drought since the days of Paul DeGregorio/Andrew Kuchta. Conboy, who ran 9:32 for the 32 as a soph., could put them back on the map, especially with a strong showing at his home invite Red White and Blue)
Only problem with guys like Conway and Kujdych is they've already dropped such great times, and now are expected to continue to drop fantastic times as sophomores when they really don't have anyone to push them. Guys like Heintz are upperclassmen who are part of historically great programs who will always have someone to push them in practice.
DeleteLooks like the discussion has stalled so here's my top five. Would love to see what other "arm-chair running nerds" are thinking...
ReplyDelete1. Brophy - He's the defending AAA champion, ran 8:57 in outdoor and until proven otherwise he goes into the season as the top dawg. History has shown over and over again that it's not always a given that an athlete will continue to progress or even maintain from year to year so he's certainly not a shoe in. In fact, other than his incredible run at states in 2014 and his 8:57 early in the track season he hasn't produced that many big wins or "wow" type efforts.
2. Jaxson Hoey - Kid seems to be a gamer and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was going home on November 7th with a AAA gold medal around his neck. He has possibly the #1 team in the state to train with on a daily basis and he's proven he can run big when it matters most by coming home with the 1600 gold in outdoor. One could argue he's got the most momentum rolling into the 2015 season. The big concern here has to be injury as he missed a huge chunk of last season. But if he's healthy he's proven he'll be one of the best.
3. Kolor - Another athlete with a lot of momentum rolling into 2015. A year ago this time not many people had ever heard of Mike Kolor. In 2013 he didn't even make the state xc meet in his first season. In 2014 he finished a respectable 23rd after a battle with low iron. But after a spring in which he covered the full mile in 4:12.37(4:10.91 converted 1600 and only .2 seconds slower than Hoey) things seem to be clicking. If that momentum continues he looks primed to make another leap and possibly be in the mix for the AAA title in November.
4. Henderson - What more can you say about this kids sophomore campaign. 13th overall at the state meet and a ridiculous 9:08 3200 in outdoor. If his improvement curve continues along it's current trajectory Henderson will be a serious threat to join an elite club of underclassmen to take home AAA state gold. Word on the street is he could possibly be getting a new head coach in Mike Craighead, a Lancaster area distance running standout who coached Vince McNally to a 4:08 mile. Could be a lethal combo.
5. Hockenbury - My first non AAA runner in the top 5. Maybe I'm not giving Hock his due. He is after all, the defending AA XC state champion and now two time AA 3200 gold medalist on the track. To say he's accomplished a lot in his first three seasons is an understatement. But, for what it's worth, I don't see him making a huge leap this season. What data do I have to base this on? Pretty much none. So like everyone else's predictions it doesn't mean squat.
At the end of the day we really don't have a clue what's going to happen. For all we know some dark horse is working their tail off this summer and someone we're not even talking about is getting ready to take the PIAA by storm. That's as they say, why they run the races. And what makes this sport so much fun!
Stalled is an understatement. I assume you are talking PIAA, therefore leaving Dahl off your list. Partially agree with your list. Kolor is a true wild card. He never runs over the Mile in track so his strength at 5K is suspect. Why not Perretta then? I would take Seiger, a true XC "specialist". No fantastic track times, but you can tell he has a "feel" for running the trails.
DeleteThe other 4 are quite far ahead if you use 3200 track times and last years State finish.
All great arguments...
DeleteVery hesitant on Kolor due to his lack of resume above the mile. Only person with even the slightest shot against Brophy is Hoey. Henderson is fast and has great hair, theres no way he can't excel, but I agree on the whole dark horse thing, There's always someone.
Delete1. Jake Brophy defending state champ enough said
ReplyDelete2. Jaxson hoey-if he can have a summer like he did last year and then stay healthy through the whole season Brophy will be in trouble
3.Nathan Henderson- 9:08 as a soph and will now be hungry to mix it up with the big boys up front
4. Dom Hockenbury
5. Josh Hoey- big freshman to soph jump usually and I think training with that elite group of guys all summer will do him great
6. Nick Dahl- needs to prove himself a little more on the grass, but if he translates his track to cc this year he's dangerous
7. Mike Kolor- momentum going from track. A little bold here but I think he'll be top 10
8. Henry Sappey- very proven on the grass and was top 10 in that ridiculously loaded AAA race last year
9. Ryan James- trained under his big brother for 2 years and is proven to be a 10x better cross runner than track runner and has Morro to grind with all season
10. Spencer Smucker- medaled at states as a freshman and is now in his 2nd year under the great coach Kelly. He'll thrive this season
I have to completely disagree about your assumptions with Hoey and Smucker. First off, I can't see how theres any rational explanation as to how Lil Hoey could be in front of Dahl, or even Sappey for that matter. Let look at these 2 sophs and look at it from a historical standpoint, and a present day standpoint. Looking at the class of 2015, James was 15:58 as a frosh, yet couldn't crack the top 10 as a soph, not even the top 20. Despite this class having the best top tier of guys in the history of PA, none of them broke the top 10 their soph year, with only 2 in the top 20 (Abert 12th, and Webb 14th). If you argue that 12th is close enough, lets not forget that Abert went on to run 14:55 his senior year… All I'm saying is, that historically, its extremely rare to have a soph in the top 10, much less one at #5 and one at #10. But enough with history, lets look at who they are as runners. You say there is a big frosh to soph jump, but lets not forget that Josh has been competing on the team since an 8th grader, and trains with his brother Jaxson, so its not as if going to DTW will be some intense training that helps him drop some crazy time. As for Smucker, he had the luxury of running 16:15 by training behind Knapp, and with Barchet and Swart, whereas this year he'll be by himself in training trying to lead his team. All I'm saying is, based off of history and where both boys are with their teammates and their training, Id be shocked if even one of them hit #10. I would put in guys such as Seiger, Milligan, or Peretta in their place. That being said, it is hard to take away from the talent that those two have, and its not say that they won't impress a lot of people this year.
Delete5 Seiger
ReplyDeleteAs mentioned numerous times before here on this blog, Seiger is definitely an XC guy. With the exception of an NXN qualifier in the postseason, Seiger never had a race above 16:20, an accolade that no one else on this list can boast so far. He is very consistent, dipping under 15:50 twice, and his two races at Hershey were 16:15 and 16:11, which just supplies the argument of how he is consistent even on the likes of the Hershey course. The only possible flaw I can find in Seiger is that he doesn't have nearly the track speed as some of these other guys, which as we know from the last 800 at 2014 states, is important.
4 Hockenbury
Its crazy that someone as good as Hock could be as low as 4 in the state, but to me, this is out of his control. He is unbeatable in AA for about the past 2 years, and has only lost in an indoor 3k to Matt McGoey. He's right around 9 flat, and will be looking for the 3-peat at Hershey this fall. As train said, he'll be a favorite for Foot locker as well.
3 Dahl
My gut told me to put Dahl over Hock. The fact that Dahl is able to match up with some of these guys on paper without even being able to race in the PIAA astounds me. He's lead his class in the 3200 for the whole nation 2 years straight, and with a 2 mile conversion he's the only soph to break 9 in PA history. He's the favorite for Independents this fall, and he's still got a lot of upside coming in as a junior, which is why he got the nod over Hock.
2 Hoey
1 Brophy
Although there may be an argument to be made about this, there just doesn't seem to be a way to justify why Brophy isn't #1. Jaxson may match Brophy on talent, but Jaxson's lack of experience in the PIAA and Brophy's crazy success at Hershey gives him the edge. Jaxson may take home the district title, but come Hershey, I think it's all Brophy.
10 Skolnekovich
ReplyDeleteThe young stud from Quaker Valley makes a valid argument for himself to be on this list. The kid wins, alot. He won every race he was in this season, barring states, and a Sharpsville racee where he lost to JVK. To have a AA WPIAL win as a sophomore (a comfortable win, might I add), its hard for him not get a little attention. He ran a "lackluster" 9:40 on the track, which although doesn't put him as a top dog, it still makes him one of the better sophomores in the state. As only a junior, he could surprise many people.
9 James
James has a big job for his upcoming junior year, which I think he is more than capable of handling. He's got a ton of upside in him, as he PR'd at states on the Hershey course! A 15th place finish is solid, and to think he was able to PR at that race shows he has a monster race in him come this fall. If you think this means he relies too heavily on tougher courses to take down competition, he also has a 4:26 to his name.
8 Henderson
Henderson has the best overall resume of these 3 between all the seasons, which is probably why he got the 8 spot. He always come up big at states, no matter what season it is. In the fall, he came up for a huge 13th finish at states (still 4 secs faster than James' great race), then dropped a fast 9:08 at states, which puts him 2nd in his class behind only Dahl, who was the national class leader in the event. He had other quality performances though, including a 16:02 at Carlisle, and a 2nd place finish in the D3 meet in the 3200, finishing behind only Zach Brehm.
7 Lapsansky
Lapansky is someone who I think is getting slightly overlooked. He was in the shadow of his former teammate Colin Abert last year, but now he'll have his chance. He was the runner-up in both his league meet and district meet behind his teammate, and finished strongly at 18th at Hershey. Coming into next year, he'll have seen the training it took to break 15, and will be the favorite for his league and district.
6 Kravitz
What makes Kravitz so likable as an athlete is his versatility, as he can go from running with 1:58 and 4:17 on the track, to running 15:38 on grass. He'll need to strengthen his resume on the hills for this upcoming season, but he will be a top 5 contender at AA states this year, and obviously has great speed.
Jeff Kirshenbaum from Methacton is my dark horse this year. He dropped an impressive 16:15 early on in the season, and though he struggled later in the season, he bounced back to make states indoor for the mile and ran 9:35 outdoor.
ReplyDelete