It’s
almost time for the opening weekend of the PA High School XC Season. Although I
don’t have any all-time lists at my disposal, I have tried to come up with some
of the key story lines going into each of these meets. It’s some classic etrain
analysis that I hope you will enjoy ...
But I’m
more interested in the names behind him. If Souderton, Pennridge and CB West
all do show up to the invite, we could see an excellent battle between the top
suburban one continental runners, including Connor McMenamin, Tucker Desko and
Rock Fortna. I think all three of these guys have the potential to be sub 16 by
season’s end (Fortna and McMenamin were that level last year) and I think this
will be a nice test to see how they stack up. Pennridge has not really had a
super star in XC, they have excelled much more on the track so this could be a
big step in the right direction if Desko can prove himself week one. Also CB
West has a nice pack of guys who could challenge this group (how will Brian
Mass run this year?) and maybe even Josh Goetz can jump into the mix, closing
the gap on training partner Brophy.
The
other compelling story line here is CRN and Hatboro Horsham. Historically,
these are two of the best programs not named Henderson in District One and
basically every year they have an individual medalist at states (very hard to
accomplish). This year, with Arita and Comber graduating, it’s unclear who will
be the leader of either team. The smart money says someone will emerge from
both teams over the next few months to become medal contenders, but who will it
be? Should be fun to see who takes the first steps this weekend.
Gateway
The
Gateway Invitational is a fun early season meet out West. I get the impression
it’s a pretty difficult course so that’s probably why a grinder like Jake
Susalla took the title a year ago. Susalla has suddenly become one of the
favorites for the WPIAL title after an excellent Junior campaign, which could
be quite a bit of pressure for the runner from Plum. I’ll be watching to see
how he responds in his first race.
I also
am very excited to watch Baldwin run. Baldwin has a pretty impressive history
in the WPIAL and arguably came the closest of any team to knocking North
Allegheny of their pedestal during the 2009-2010 seasons (Lebo also came close
in 2011). I think they may be on the upswing again behind Casey Conboy, their
talented front runner, but only times will tell.
You
like that line? Well I thought it was clever …
LVC
St.
Joe’s Prep has quietly been an outstanding program, particularly on the track.
They often get swallowed up among LaSalle and O’Hara in the PCL, but if they
return to this meet they could have a nice moment for themselves. Joe Piscano
is really underrated as an XC beast for Prep. He had a strong season last year
with quality runs at Pre States and Paul Short in addition to PCLs and
Districts (and this meet where he was 2nd behind teammate Isiah
Fisher). I’m also holding out hope that 1:54 man Stephen McClellan will run for
the XC team and make an impact.
Lions Invite
This
isn’t a meet I’m particularly familiar with, but I will be keeping an eye on
which small school D11 teams appear to be stepping up. I also want to see what
Joe Espinal can do for Wilson. He’s an unreal talent who could become a state
medal winner in AA if he can figure out the grass the way he has figured out
the track. He will be a senior this year so he should be stronger than ever.
Cliff Robbins
All
eyes will be on Dominic Hockenbury at this meet (and rightfully so) to see if
he can match his clocking from last year (15:50ish). He won last year’s meet by
almost a minute and there doesn’t seem to be a logical challenger to step in
and narrow that gap (2nd place was multiple state medalist Nate
Morgan from Lakeland). So it should be Hock vs the clock (possibly a theme in
2015, plus it rhymes so even better).
That’s
fun, but it’s not as exciting to me as watching a couple potential state title
teams battle it out. Northeast Bradford may be back in attendance. They are a
powerhouse in the A division and are hungry to get back on the podium this
fall. And then there is Dallas, a super young team with a lot of spunk and
tremendous upside. They could be the story of the weekend if things break
right.
McDowell
This
race should be really fun, even if it may not have some of the “star power” on
paper. A squad Seneca will take to the trails and start a season that could
potential end with district and state titles in their division. The Meyers
twins are studs who could make the sophomore to junior jump this fall. I’m
interested to see if they have improved their depth behind them to become legit
contenders.
We
also might get a peak at a fantastic sophomore battle as three of the state’s
best frosh last year (Noah Beveridge, Logan Caruso and Christian Babo) all may
end up in attendance (also McDowell’s own Zimmerman could be in the mix).
Lock Haven
Admittedly,
I don’t know too much about this meet (I think it’s mixed in with a College
meet?), but I will be watching is the match up between the small school D6
teams. Eli Urban, teammate of state medalist and sub 4:20 man Brian Hackman, is
a sleeper to make noise this year, but he will likely have to deal with Bishop
McCourt’s Jacob Shulte, among others.
Enos Yeager
I
believe this course is listed as 2.35 miles, which means times will literally
mean nothing out there on race day. That’s XC at it’s finest. With the
departure of Brehm, D’Angelo and Dyche, Carlisle looks vulnerable within the
district 3 rankings after a pair of strong seasons. Matt Wisner, the 800m stand
out this past spring, will look to usher in a new era of Carlisle XC and prove
he can handle the trails as well as he handles the track. He gets a nice test
in XC vet Dan Filler of Gettysburg.
Also
keep an eye on Chambersburg. They are a sleeper contender for a state
qualifying spot out of D3 and I believe they are the hosts for this meet, which
means home field advantage is in play.
McKeesport
I
have to brush up on McKeesport Trail Run history, but keep an eye on West
Mifflin as a team in this one. I’m interested to see if they can repeat their
performance from a year ago.
Cal Invite
Correct
me if I’m wrong, but I feel like historically Mt Lebanon has dominated this
meet. They handled the course very well last year and appear set up to do it
again with another great squad on paper. I’m interested to see how Gunzenhauser
handles this difficult lay out considering his biggest successes thus far have
been on the track. I am also curious to see how Brandenstein evolves as a
sophomore.
But,
if memory serves, the WPIAL championships are being moved to this course for
the first time in 2015, right? So this has even bigger implications considering
Lebo will get to preview the course they hope to use to topple the Tiger
Dynasty this season. That also could mean a few more top teams will make the
trip to preview the course.
Big Valley
State
College and Altoona have had a fun rivalry in recent years, including an epic
2013 District meet. But this year, on paper at least, State College appears to
be big time favorites for gold and the only qualifying spot. So how will
Altoona rally the troops to start 2015 against their arch rivals? That will be
a compelling story line for me at the Big Valley Invitational. You can flip it
and also ask yourself, how good is State College? Well, if they throw down a
dominate performance this weekend with big runs by their 4x8 guys, we might
have an answer.
Altoona
has it’s own prestigious history of putting up medal contenders year after year
including Wade Endress, Korey Replogle, Dylan Mountain and Brad Foust. Who is
next in line? That should be fun to watch for in this one.
In
the AA race, you have to look out for Will Kachman. Kachman dominated the AA
race last year and he is fresh off his best track season ever with a massive
3200m PR. Kachman was ranked quite high in the top 50 rankings so he will have
to back up me up in week one.
Also
in the AA race is Lewisburg, a team with sleeper potential in the AA team title
race (which is very wide open, might I add).
Hornet Harrier
Again,
this is far from my area of expertise, but watch for rising sophomore Tingley
to make a name for himself with a nice time in this one.
Northampton Invitational
Similarly
to the Lions Invitational, I’m watching to see which District 11 teams come to
play at this meet. One of the teams I will be keeping a close eye on is Mahanoy
of A D11. I felt like they had a strong season last year and, potentially,
could continue to improve this year, assuming they build off that momentum.
Oakbourne
It’s
hard to gain too much information from a two mile relay meet in the beginning
of September, but it won’t stop me from trying. This meet could potentially
feature D1 Champs Conestoga, D1 favorites DT West, D3 Champs Hempfield and the always
intriguing West Chester Henderson. That’s a loaded group. Just seeing DT West
debut and trying to figure out how their crazy talented group fits together is
enough to make a fan tune in, but the real stories here are likely the other
teams. We know DT West will be good, but how will Conestoga and Henderson
rebuild?
I’m
not sure if Hempfield will be back, but if so keep an eye on them. They started
very slow in 2014 (injuries?) before bringing the squad together for a killer
stretch run at leagues and districts. I’m curious to see how they start the
year this time around with a talented crew.
And hey, let’s not sleep on the other Chesmont teams, particularly Unionville who has been on a lot of people’s radar as a potential party crasher in D1. This will be a good chance to prove their depth against some of the other favorites in the district.
As far as I know, D7 will still be at Cooper's Lake but Tri-States will stay at Cal.
ReplyDeleteNot to be rude but looking now.. Who the heck is there for Unionville?
ReplyDeleteHey Etrain,
ReplyDeleteNice preview for this upcoming week! Hopefully the heat will not get in the way too much and yield some fast times to start the year off right for Brophy and the rest of the runners competing all across the state of Pennsylvania. As a constant reader of your posts, I just wanted to clarify that ONLY the Girls team from Souderton will be in attendance for the Viking Invitational this weekend. The races will be great no matter what, but the Souderton Boys team will make their debut at PTXC next weekend. Sorry for the confusion!
Should be a good year for everyone and cannot wait to see what follows for this blog and the running season all together!
-Connor McMenamin
Thanks Connor! Good to know that info, I did think it was odd to see Souderton on the list because I didn't think they usually went. Good luck at PTXC!
DeleteIn my early prediction, i had connor cracking top 10 in the state. Good luck this year.
DeleteThe winner of Oakbourne usually goes on to wins District 1. This year will be no exception.
ReplyDeleteGFS will be at Oakbourne also. Could be 3 top 10 teams there.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone explain the Oakbourne Relays results? Seriously. How is anyone supposed to understand that jibberish?
ReplyDelete"Format for Varsity Race-You will have 4 two member teams. The 1st person will run a mile and then tag off to the 2nd person. That person will run a mile and then tag the 1st person who will run a mile then tag the 2nd person. The 2nd person runs a mile back to the finish. The times of all four teams will be added together."
DeleteSo when reading the results, for example: the first of GFS's 4 member teams had Plass do his first mile in 5:20, handed off to Dahl who went 4:50 and handed back to Plass who went 5:38 who gave it back to Dahl for a 4:51.
Thanks. That makes sense. Maybe they can come up with a spreadsheet/format that is clearer to understand.
DeleteThere's a link at lxvplus.blogspot.com where I added up the times together for the varsity boys. Hopefully it works ok, let me know if it helps out.
DeleteAlso, note that it is unofficial because I'm not sure which name goes with which times in some instances.