So for those of you who follow the professional ranks, you have probably been watching Galen Rupp go on an all out assault on the record books. That has been truly fun to watch, but I think that record breaking is probably done at this point. If he manages to break 3:50 in the mile I will be quite impressed and surprised. He has been struggling the last 600m or so the last few races and bringing home the mile in 56ish pace is going to be no joke. Plus I'm not sure there is a rabbit in his arsenal who can get him to 1200m under pace. Taylor Gilland has been fantastic on the rabbiting jobs thus far, unbelievable work in that 2 mile, but I don't see him getting Rupp around the track for this next one.
Which is why I have set my 800m biased eyes on the upcoming 4x800m record attempt in Boston (different Boston track) at the New Balance Grand Prix. The event will be taking place on February 8th at the Reggie Lewis center and may end up on ESPN or one of its networks. Pretty sweet!
We don't know all that much about the event, but we do know the Brooks Beast relay squad is highlighting the race. Led by new addition Nick Symmonds and his quest to break records this year, the Beasts squad is looking to beat the 7:13.94 World Record mark from 2000 (also the US record). It has also been announced that Symmonds will be joined by Mark Wieczorek (I will refer to as Wizzo because it is not only an awesome nickname but also much easier to spell), Cas Loxsom (PSU's own) and Matt Sherer (perhaps the world's best rabbit).
But obviously this group can not do it alone, they need some competition. The relay willing to give it to them: the NJ-NY team with big name Robby Andrews. It is essentially a battle of two of the under appreciated track training groups in the nation, with no sign of the Nike Oregon Project or the Oregon Track Club.
So what is it going to take to get the record? Well first off it's going to take really strong indoor fitness for this early. The time suggests you "only" need to average 1:48.485 to get yourself the record. Seems like an easy enough mark, but consider the top times recently. 1:47 won a pretty competitive US championships last year indoors if my memory serves me correctly and if you run 1:48 and change you have a chance to be in the final indoors at USAs.
Besides the pros usually aren't jacked up and in sick shape for indoors. Think about the guys on this world record relay. It includes David Krummenacker who is something around 3:31-1:43 PR wise. It also includes Haverford D3 star Karl Paryna (this isn't really relevant to my point, it's just a small shout out to the Centennial Conference). Who is going to line with Krummenacker out there? Nobody on the NJ-NY roster has the chops and Symmonds seems like the most logical guy from the beasts. However, Symmonds usually stays away from indoors and has had seriously quiet years on the circuit ever since becoming a professional.
But the news is not all negative here folks. In the grand scheme of things besides the star Krummenacker, the current record holders are far from names that you recognize (Woody and Kenah are the remaining two legs). In addition, indoor marks are falling left and right this year. If guys really want it, what's to stop them from being in great shape? It's not like it's a world championship year outdoors and, fittingly, it is a world championship year indoors!
So let's crunch a little bit of numbers.
Brooks Beast squad:
Nick Symmonds is the stud of the group. He has a PR of 1:42 in the 800m and has fantastic strength. He is coming of the best year of his career that included a silver medal in the 800m at the world championships. He also has a bit of extra motivation now that he has jumped from the swoosh to try and bring the Beasts to the forefront of the elite. However, Nick still needs to prove he can produce big times indoors. Who knows what kind of shape he is in, especially considering we have yet to see him a race. I may be a hater here, but I can't see faster than 1:46 on his split. I expect Nick, the big name, to be on the anchor leg of the squad and, if they want to get the record, he may have to race hard rather than race (especially if the other team's anchor is Robby Andrews, the ultimate sit and kick man). Overall, I think Nick wants to represent the neon well and will run a great leg when all is said and done, but don't expect anything mind-blowing out of him.
My projected split from Nick: 1:46.91
Cas Loxsom is the big sleeper here. Think about it, Loxsom is perhaps the best guy in the nation at the indoor 600m and if oversized tracks counted for anything he would have the American Record. He could run 1:15ish at the mark and smash guys like Sowinski and Soloman. We have seen Cas run down in the 1:46ish range indoors before and at Penn State they were not ashamed of getting guys in fast shape really early. Cas has all the speed and the tools to run a fantastic split on a 4x8. He is no stranger to important relay legs from his days at Penn Sate and is coming off his best individual season at PSU. But he is a first time professional and that adjustment may take some time. Ultimately, however, I'm banking on Cas getting out hard and holding on in a big way. I think he is the key piece to the puzzle here. If he pops one off the record is gone.
My projected split from Cas: 1:47.04
Wizzo has a PR of 1:45 and made a final at the Olympic Trails in '12 wearing his American Eagle type outfit. That's pretty cool. He is a strong runner and his sweet spot is definitely at 800m. That being said he doesn't boast any amazing indoor credentials (PR at around 1:48 in the open) and had a kinda rough opening mile at UW recently. I think he certainly can bounce back and provide a nice spark for this relay, but I'm not sure if he will run anything blazing fast out there. He is a tricky leg to predict here overall, especially because I wouldn't be surprised at all if he is the lead-off leg. Ultimately, however, this is a record attempt and Brooks needs this mark to prove their worth. But somebody has to have an off-day out of the 4 of them right?
My projected split from Mark: 1:49.22
Lastly, you have the super wild card: Matt Sherer. As mentioned Matt Sherer is one of the best pacers in the world: he has a resume that is off the charts and has paced guys like Kaki and David Rudisha. But now he has to race? How is he going to react to something like that? Is he going to run lead off and drag someone around the track? Will he sit and kick? Keep in mind Matt's 800m PR is from 2008! It's a 1:46.11. He also boasts a 45.19 open PR in the 400 which is straight up moving. But that mark is from 2006! There is no way I can possibly accurately predict this guys time. He has the wheels, he has the ability, he is clearly trustworthy in record setting situations. But he hasn't been a racer since who knows when. I'll give it a guess but don't expect it to be great.
My projected split from Matt: 1:50.11
That all adds up to ... 7:13.28! Just a shade under the record. Keep in mind that I predicted the times without adding them up to see what that would get us so it's very interesting even to me to see what that adds up to (hopefully I did my math right).
But those splits are going to be way off if the Brooks guys don't get a race from the NJNY crew.
Who do they have at their disposal? Well I think Andrews is definitely on the relay based on the way they have been advertising, and Rutt is probably the best guy on that team right now so he will be featured in there as well. I'd expect Robby on the anchor just because that is what he has been doing his whole life, kicking down guys at Penn, but Rutt would be powerful on the anchor as well and must be considered. Both these guys are coming off somewhat disappointing shows at the Armory in the mile (Rutt around 4 flat which is actually fairly strong for him, and Robby DNFing after falling way off pace which is, unsurprisingly, bad for him). Keep in mind though Robby runs excellent indoors at 800m and 1000m when he gets his mind to it.
To join those two pieces they will have to pick between the following names:
-Kyle Merber (3:35 once in a life time untouchable PR and some strong relay legs from Columbia)
-Russell Brown (not even sure if he is healthy or training or anything, have to talk to coach, but he is one of the most talented guys on the roster)
-Tevan Everett (indoor world champs qualifier at 800m, 1:46.02 PR, consistent guy on the roster, gotta think he will be on the team?)
-Sadiki White (LSU boy with 1:47 PR)
-Ben Scheetz (D3 record holder indoors at 800m, would be a compelling story line between him and Symmonds)
-Declan Murray (All-American last year and strong 800m man, 1:46.77 PR)
-Brian Gagnon (He has a 3:42.9 down-hill mile PR. Not really relevant to his current 800m ability but that is an awesome stat to have at your disposal)
And like five other guys including PA alumn Nick Crits who shares a birthday with yours truly. Again not relevant but it was a great birthday gift to find that out when I was 16.
So who are they gonna pick from that group? No idea! Pick your favorite two! They have so many guys, all of whom could easily put down a 1:48ish split. Heck they could even field two relays and both could stay relatively competitive if everyone is healthy and in shape.
For the sake of argument and to stop all this rambling I'll say we have something like this:
Everett 1:48.37
Rutt 1:47.21 (3:35.58)
Gagnon 1:50.02 (5:25.60)
Andrews 1:47.88 (7:13.48)
vs.
Wizzo 1:49.22
Loxsom 1:47.04 (3:36.26)
Sherer 1:50.11 (5:26.37)
Symmonds 1:46.91 (7:13.28)
So a close race! I see it playing out with Everett busting lose from Wizzo down the stretch in a grueling first leg, Loxsom goes out hard and assumes the lead, but Rutt dominates the final 200 as a result. Gagnon handles a rusty Sherer, but it's a bit closer than expected with Robby letting Symmonds go to the lead and work to chase the record. In a surprise pick I do not have Robby outkicking Nick and grabbing the win! Cue the shock and awe! I see Nick holding off Robby's late charge and bringing home a big record for Brooks in his first performance for the team.
Is it a tad ambitious to expect Symmonds to play right into Andrews hands in hopes of getting the record? Yeah probably. But hey, it's my fantasy world and I want to see a record!
-train
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