Mile
1. Tony Russell, Sr West Chester Henderson (4:14.52/4:16.26)
Russell just missed a state title at the mile last year indoors, but
consistently ran top times in the state at this event indoors and
outdoors. Russell is coming off an XC season during which he defended
his individual and team titles at the state championships while also
breaking 15 minutes in the 5k. His strength has never really been in
question (he ran 9:07 last season for 3200m), but he has needed to prove
he has the speed to compete in the mile at the top level. He started
out this season with an incredible 3:02 split at Yale, positioning
himself well in the speed category. He also managed to have a strong
enough kick to hold off a late charge in the open mile where he won in
4:16.26 (despite some on track antics). With Russell's latest mile mark,
he has now run 4:16 or faster for the open mile equivalent 4 times in
the last two track seasons. If you count his indoor and outdoor relay
splits the number goes up to at least 6.
2. Zach Brehm, Jr Carlisle (4:09.27/4:31.71c)
The same arguments about Brehm that I made in the 800m are just as relevant here.
Clearly he has a fantastic resume, especially in the mile, but the only
question is whether or not he can find enough momentum during a
difficult indoor stretch to be prime and fit come states. His kick would
be absolutely lethal against this field, but stars like Vince McNally
(4:07.55 miler as a Junior) could even win states their senior year.
Brehm's progression will be very exciting moving forward as hopefully he
will get a fast enough seed time to be in the fast heat at states in
whatever he chooses to run.
3. Jaxson Hoey, So Malvern Prep (4:19.24/4:19.24)
Hoey
right now is one of the only guys on any of these lists who can say he
has run an overall PR already this season indoors. He ran 4:19.24 for
the mile at Yale and he also ran 4:26.81 for Burdette, putting him in an
elite class of milers already. Factor in that the guy is a sophomore
and it is clear we are looking at something special. That being said,
sophomores can have a tough time at the state championship level. At the
800m we have seen legends like Mallon and up and coming stars like
Brehm win, but the larger distance events tend to take age and
experience in addition to talent. Hoey has run considerably faster than
the sophomores of year's past already despite the fact that it is only
January, so clearly he is someone not afraid to try and rewrite the
history books.
4. Kevin James, Jr O'Hara (4:15.73/-)
Last year as a sophomore, James ran some truly gutsy races. He
tried the mile/3k double indoors twice in big meets, ran 3:04.4 1200m
(beating established 800m guys like Andrew Stone) and finished 5th at
states in a brutally windy 3200m. James got a bit of a late start to his
indoor track season thanks to his NXN trip so he has only ran a 3k
mark, but looking ahead it is very likely he will try his hand at the
mile soon. James will have to consider pulling double duties on relays
this year, making the mile more enticing than the 3k, even though I
believe the 3k is probably his strongest event. James is much like
Russell in the fact that he runs his best marks off honest paces and
strength without the flashy 800m PRs of many other top guys in the
field. He will look to build off his own strong 1200m marks for
confidence late in the race.
5. Kyle Francis, Sr Bensalem (4:17.83c/4:26.54)
Kyle
Francis easily could be one of the top ranked 800m guys in the state,
but in the past year it seems he has worked hard to establish the Mile
as his main event. Francis competed at the mile indoors last year and
the 1600m outdoors, both in addition to the 4x8. Brad Rivera was the big
name on the Bensalem relay coming into the year, but Francis quickly
emerged as a star in his own right. Francis can probably run 48-49 on a
4x4 split and has run 1:51 on a 4x8 split. That speed could be lethal in
the right race. Often times these miles are tactical and although I
don't expect guys like James and Russell to let things get too slow,
Francis's kick could get him an upset victory. And he won't be dropped
easily by a fast pace, Francis has run 15:46 for 5k.
6. Sam Ritz, Jr Germantown Academy (4:11.73/4:24.03)
Don't
sleep on Sam Ritz out of GA! It's been a while since GA had guys at the
top of the state indoors (probably Elliot Rhodes and their 4x8 was the
last time), but Ritz early in has shown he would be interested in
running fast at top meets indoors. His 4:11.73 and 4:24.03 PR and SB
marks add up to the fastest total out of anyone short of Tony Russell.
The independent schools tend to perform very well indoors, and I would
not be surprised at all if Ritz peaked right and finished the season
with a surprise.
7. Kevin Moy, Sr West Chester Henderson (4:17.49c/4:26.84)
Think
of it this way: Moy ran 4:42.73 last year indoors and dipped all the
way down to 4:16.01 by the end of outdoors. Now he is already starting
out at 4:26.84! Moy is something of a converted 800m guy who has managed
to translate his 1:55 speed into a great kick that earned him a strong
finish last outdoors at the state championship (5th) ahead of his
teammate Tony Russell. Moy ran a huge leg on the DMR the night before
his season best this season in the mile which makes me think he was
running on tired legs. I think there is a lot of room for improvement
here and Coach Kelly knows how to push the right buttons to make it
happen. Moy has a lot more experience being near the top of the big
stage than he did last year at this time and he knows on the right day
he can hang with anyone in the state.
8. Christian Kardish, Sr Holy Ghost Prep (4:19.99c/4:29.42)
Kardish
made the state championships in the 1600m out of the grueling district
one each of the last two years. That right there is symbolic of how well this guy can run.
Last year indoors, coming off sickness and a health scare, he ran a
great time in a slower heat and followed it up with a clutch kick on the
DMR (I believe he outkicked UD's own Francis Ferruzzi). Kardish has
been racing the best guys in the state for years now and he isn't afraid
to stick his nose in there. He recently jumped in a couple of top miles
at the Armory, gaining valuable experience in fast, competitive races
on banked tracks. In a meet like states where every second counts, this
experience will be incredibly valuable.
Honorable Mention
Brendan Billotta, Sr LaSalle
Ross Wilson, Sr Council Rock North
Still more to come! See the 800m below if interested
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