NCAA Qualifying

Figured I'd throw some NCAA stuff in here since I haven't for so long, but if you are here for HS related info feel free to scroll down a bit and read up on my recap of the individual events at states.

The deadline for entries for the NCAA championship meet is today, meaning that we now know the top names in each event. We should be able to somewhat reasonably project the NCAA entries as a result. The top 16 individuals and the top 12 relays will be accepted in each event. So here is what the distance picture looks like in the Men's NCAA.

DMR
The DMR is the simplest one to project in my mind. The top 12 teams are all going to enter because there is basically no incentive not to. You can run a team of relative B squad guys if that benefits you in the individuals without any penalty. If you don't accept the bid you leave 4 guys at home who could have been representing your school on the national stage and gaining valuable experience at the top level. It's an excellent recruiting tool, team championship tool and much much more.

So long story short these are the 12 teams you can expect to toe the line at the NCAA championships later this month (qualifying team members listed, but substitutions can be made):
1. PSU 9:26.59 Kidder, Bennentt-Green, Watkins, Creese
2. Indiana 9:27.72 Gornall, Morgan, Kinnaird, Hunter
3. Villanova 9:28.06 Solis, Ellison, Fitzsimons, Williamsz
4. Oregon 9:28.91 Fleet, Galpin, Guyota, Cheserek
5. Stanford 9:28.95 Bertolotti, Solomon, Lefebure, Atchoo
6. Georgetown 9:29.11 Bartelsmeyer, Andre, Ledder, Bile
7. Arkansas 9:29.37 Wallace, Braddy, Squella, Rono
8. Notre Dame 9:29.43 Rae, Feeney, Dumford, Happe
9. OK State 9:29.91 Moskowitz, Payton, Noelle, Erassa
10. Virginia Tech 9:30.26 Degfae, Dally, Degfae, Pollock
11. Columbia 9:30.72 Gregorek, McFann, Fish, Everett
12. Washington 9:31.82 Simon, Satterwhite, Daigre, Yorks

First teams out include Minnesota (9:31.94), Nebraska (9:32.85) and Oklahoma (9:32.92)

800m
The 800m begins the trickiness of the whole projecting operation. Here is the honest truth, a lot of these guys who are at the top of the 800m are also pieces of these top DMR teams. Does that mean we may see a few guys pull out from the 800m top 16 and open the door for some surprises? Well here are the 16 names that are currently in the position to get in. I will mark with a * guys who either have important DMRs or are better off going after a different individual event.
1. Edward Kemboi, Iowa State 1:45.98
2. Brandon Kidder, Penn State 1:47.45*
3. Eliud Rutto, Middle Tennesse State 1:47.45+ (converted from 1:48.98 flat track)
4. Brandon McBride, Mississippi State 1:47.51
5. Sean Obinwa, Florida 1:47.76
6. Billy Ledder, Georgetown 1:47.89*
7. Alvaro Chavez, UConn 1:47.96
8. Patrick Rono, Arkansas 1:47.96*
9. Andres Arroyo, Florida 1:47.97
10. Ryan Schnulle, Florida 1:48.05
11. Zavon Watkins, PSU 1:48.11*
12. Sam Ellison, Nova 1:48.40*
13. Tomas Squella, Arkansas 1:48.70*
14. Jacopo Lahbi, Alabama 1:48.77
15. Luke Lefebure, Stanford 1:48.80*
16. Andrew Smith, UMBC 1:48.82

First off, how sick is that Florida 4x8? Would love to somehow see those guys come out to Penn Relays. Second, we have to see which guys may drop out of this event. Two PSU guys, two Arkansas guys, a Nova guy and a Stanford guy as well as a GTown guy are on this list. Most of them will likely not pull out. Ellison is almost a lock to stay in, they will just use him as a 400 guy on the DM. Arkansas is usually in the team title talks at these meets so they will probably want to use Rono and Squella in the open 8 if possible. That means they will have to change up their DMR order and run someone like Kemoy Campbell on the anchor leg if he is healthy. Lefebure may drop out if Stanford as serious aspirations in the DMR, but I think they may reward him for a strong year and let him double. Kidder seems so close to the title I can't imagine a situation where Kidder drops the open 8. Ledder has been very good this year and is a potential All American at 800m, so I doubt GTown will pull him out of the open. So really only Watkins is a possible drop in my eyes. I'd say it's 50-50 for him to be in or out.

The guys waiting to step in should anyone drop are:
Jesse Jorgensen, Washington State 1:48.84
Jake Hiltner, Akron 1:48.85
Nick Hartle, UCLA 1:48.86
Sam Penzenstadler, Loyola 1:48.86

Mile
Much like the 800m, the open mile is before the DMR and seriously complicates the picture of who will enter the big dance. Plus milers may be better off as 5k guys or staying fresh for a 3k attempt. If no one drops here are the top 16 names. Once again I will mark those who I think may drop.
1. Lawi Lalang, Arizona 3:52.88*
2. Anthony Rotich, UTEP 3:55.86@ (altitude conversion)*
3. Jordan Williamsz, Villanova 3:56.84*
4. Matt Hillenbrand, Kentucky 3:57.00
5. Jeremy Rae, Notre Dame 3:57.25*
6. Rich Peters, Boston University 3:57.27
7. Will Geoghegan, Dartmouth 3:58.04
8. Sam Penzenstadler, Loyla 3:58.21
9. Mac Fleet, Oregon 3:58.25*
10. Matt Gillespie, Iona 3:58.48
11. Brandon Kidder, PSU 3:58.49*
12. Steve Mangan, Dartmouth 3:58.65+
13. Elmar Engholm, New Mexico 3:58.90@
14. John Gregorek, Columbia 3:58.95+*
15. Izaic Yorks, Washington 3:59.04*
16. Chad Noelle, OK State 3:59.12*

For those of you not counting, that's 9 guys marked with a * that may pull out, making a lot of guys left sitting home on the edge of their seat. Lawi will almost definitely stay with the mile but there is a small, small chance he is more interested in challenging himself in the 5k-3k. I doubt it, but there is a small chance. Williamsz and Rae are huge pieces of their DMR, but I think they will go after the double. You see lots of guys doing it each year and these two (as well as someone like Mac Fleet) will likely stay in the open.

Kidder, as mentioned above, I see in the 800m. Which means I've got him pegged to be dropping out. Rotich I see as a 5k-3k type rather than the mile and I also have him as a drop out (no guarentees, however, thanks to the generous altitude conversion). Gregorek and Yorks may choose to stay fresh for their DMRs later in the night, but their DMRs also both skated into the championship meet and may not see a fresh squad as being of the same importance. I think OK State can replace/double Noelle's leg on the DMR without too much issue so I expect him to be in.

All in all we are probably looking at somewhere between 3-5 people saying nah to the NCAA mile. That means the following group of people will be waiting by the phone.
Michael Williams, Princeton 3:59.21+
Isaac Presson, North Carolina 3:59.23+
Austin Mudd, Wisconsin 3:59.31+
Sam Stabler, Lamar 3:59.33+
Jesse Garn, Binghamton 3:59.37
John Simons, Minnesota 3:59.38
Brett Johnson, Oregon 3:59.39
Rob Denault, Nova 3:59.52

3000m
The 3k is on the second day of competition meaning that this event is very likely to have the top 16 guys as the guys competing. There is no harm in entering in this race and seeing what happens. Those 16 names are as follows:
1. Lawi Lalang, Arizona 7:44.20
2. Ed Cheserek, Oregon 7:47.20
3. Jake Hursyz, Colorado 7:50.50
4. Erik Olson, Stanford 7:50.81
5. Joe Bosshard, Coloardo 7:50.86
6. Parker Stinson, Oregon 7:51.06
7. Brian Shrader, NAU 7:51.48@
8. Maksim Korolev, Harvard 7:51.52
9. Will Geoghegan, Dartmouth 7:51.57
10. Reed Connor, Wisconsin 7:51.78
11. Matt Gillespie, Iona 7:52.24
12. Jared Ward, BYU 7:52.51
13. Rich Peters, Boston University 7:52.61
14. Ben Saarel, Coloardo 7:52.61
15. John Simons, Minnesota 7:52.62
16. Trevor Dunbar, Oregon 7:53.13

Barring an injury, this should be the field. It will be loaded with Colorado guys who may really surprise considering the NCAA meet is held at altitude this year.

5000m
This race usually just ends up being pretty close to the top 16 names as most long distance guys are clear cut 5k guys not on the whole DM and Mile scene. However this year it is a tiny bit more complicated than that. Here is the current top 16:
1. Reed Connor, Wisconsin 13:37.42
2. Patrick Tiernan, Villanova 13:37.73
3. Ed Cheserek, Oregon 13:40.51
4. Lawi Lalang, Arizona 13:41.58
5. Jared Ward, BYU 13:42.17
6. Luke Caldwell, New Mexcio 13:42.50
7. Maksim Korolev, Harvard 13:42.56
8. Erik Olson, Stanford 13:42.56
9. Mark Parrish, Florida 13:43.15
10. Joe Bosshard, Colorado 13:43.21
11. Parker Stinson, Oregon 13:43.51
12. Anthony Rotich, UTEP 13:44.13
13. Mo Ahmed, Wisconsin 13:44.32
14. Brian Shrader, NAU 13:44.55
15. Adam Bitchell, New Mexico 13:44.70
16. Joe Rosa, Stanford 13:44.85

Lawi Lalang, I believe, will drop out of the 5k in favor of the Mile-3k double. Eddy Ches may also drop out of the line up if he is going to anchor the DMR, but I think they let Cheserek go after another national championship in this event. They can do serious damage in the DMR without him. Oregon has to be thinking about maximizing points to climb higher and higher up the podium. So really I see one more spot opening up which means #17 Morgan Pearson from Colorado (13:49.30) would sneak in to national championships. Another Coloardo guy who will be dangerous at altitude.