First off, after put up this post I am going to enable the comments feature of the blog so the comments so up immediately. I am giving it a brief test run to determine if this system will be appropriate. If the comments get out of hand or offensive I will not hesitate to change the system back. Alright enough business let's talk track.
This weekend is usually the first time we get to see people getting out and racing some fairly fast times. This meet, which back in my day was Great Valley and has now made the switch to PW, features some really loaded fields. So I am cautiously optimistic about seeing some strong early season marks. No way I can make any reasonable attempts at predicting times, but I'll try to touch on the big names in each event.
DMR
This will be the first event contested of the day which, most likely, means things will be quite cold. Back in the day I ran this event twice, the first time I think I ran about 5:06 on the anchor leg of a DM as a sophomore. The next year I led off the DMR in about a 3:24ish split (I also fell handing off the baton). I don't tell you this because I think you care about my fairly average high school marks, I tell you this so you can note just how much times can fluctuate in this event based on weather. My 5:06 was run in brutal cold while the 3:24 was substantially better conditions. And guess what, early forecasts say rain on Saturday. That's going to make running a strong DMR very tricky.
The problem is teams likely will look to get in a solid DMR or two this time of year in hopes of setting up well for the Penn Relays. The big DMR meet is usually at Coatesville in a couple weeks, but this weekend could be a nice confidence booster or momentum gainer for teams before that meet. Out of the teams on the entry list, here are the names that jump out to me as potential relay medalists in this meet.
O'Hara
GFS
Great Valley
Horsham
HG Prep
Radnor
Upper Dublin
I'd be stunned if O'Hara trots out a promising relay. They are loaded up in the individuals and will likely be looking to make a statement in those races. GFS, GV, HG Prep and Radnor (especially the last two) seem like very realistic DM squads at this meet. UD is the sleeper if they have the mile leg. I'd bet Stewart on the 12 or 8 could be an interesting piece. That being said if UD doesn't have the mile leg, they likely aren't stacking up the relay so they won't be too far up in contention.
4x8
The 4x8 is the first event after lunch and the same rules as the DMR apply, teams may look to be getting momentum for Penn. My Senior year we stacked our 4x8 at this meet with hopes of running a time that would get us in to Penn Relays (thank you Sam Ellison). We ended up winning fairly handily thanks to Ellison on the anchor in about 8:08. We ran 8:04 the next weekend at PW and ended up being one of the last teams in to the relays. If a team is under 8:10 at this meet, they have a shot at Penn by the time they need to get times in. If they aren't under 8:10 they are going to need to have a pretty strong drop to claw their way in.
A cool thing that jumps out at me is seeing GA in the 4x8 and no Ritz in the opens. Does that mean we may get to see him on the relay? Or does that just mean he is resting up after a long indoor season? Probably the later, but would be interesting to see what GA can do with him in the mix. Malvern Prep is also on the list (no Hoey in the individuals) and a bunch of the aforementioned DMR teams like HGPrep, Radnor and UD. There is potential for some really intriguing teams to surface in this race, but most likely, based on the way the individuals are spaced out, we will see underwhelming relay results. I'd love to be proven wrong, however, because I'm very curious about a lot of these teams on the 4x8 list.
1600
55 minutes after the 4x8s comes the 16, a race loaded with some high quality names. Zach Brehm is the favorite, a title he will have in basically any mile race that doesn't feature Tony Russell. Brehm had a quiet indoor campaign to say the least, but the Carlisle boys clearly mean business if they are willing to trek all the way to PW for some strong competition. I don't see Brehm taking this race out, I think he hangs in the pack and kicks to a win if he can, especially with 800m duties looming.
Brehm will likely have his hands full in this race if things are left too slow. Nick Smart, one of the heroes of the national champion O'Hara DMR is set to run a bit of over distance in this race. We watched Belfatto drop from 4:22 to 4:11 in no time at all, so who knows where Smart is at fitness wise. It wouldn't be surprising if the guy is under 4:20 in the right race and right weather, but admittedly that kind of time would be a fairly substantial PR fairly early in the year.
I like a lot of other names in this field as sleepers. Ryan Grace from North Penn proved at states he can run with the best in the state. I believe he has the best indoor PR of anyone in the field. You also can't count out sub 9 3k man Billy McDevitt or sub 16 5k runners like Eric Diestelow and Dan Shalala. Pat Hopkins is also always worth a mention.
800
From what I read online the 800m is supposed to only be split into 2 heats. That means a roughly 15 man loaded fast heat of the 8 at PW. Hopefully no one gets tripped up out there and everyone makes it through the race cleanly, but I'd be a little nervous about those kind of numbers.
That being said, I do expect a few of the top runners to hopefully separate themselves from the pack. Billy Caldwell, Zach Brehm, Austin Cooper, Eli Mercado and Andy Stewart were top 10 in the state in the 800m either last outdoors or this indoors. A fresh Brehm would be an easy favorite for the win as the defending 800m state champ, but on just an hour and twenty five minutes rest, in a field like this at the beginning of the season, he is going to have his hands full.
I've been a big Caldwell fan for quite some time now, pretty much ever since indoor meet of champs at Lehigh in 2013 I would say. I like how he moved up to the mile to explore his ability there and I think that was a smart move, but he is a very capable 800m man as well. He will be dangerous for the win.
But recently I have really been jumping on the Austin Cooper bandwagon. The guy ran a 1:56 indoors on the double from a very hard mile effort (4:23). The guy can just straight up double. I'm thinking with fresh legs he could be a very capable 800m man. He is used to running on PW's track probably 5-6 times a year so he should be able to step on and drop a nice time. I think he is the sleeper for the win out there.
But wait! You can't forget about John Lewis, the indoor 400m state champion! He is coming off a 47 split at nationals for their 4x4 and is prime form to run something sick in the 800m. I felt that Lewis was in a realm with the Wiseman-Logue-Cather group going into the state championship season (Smart obviously is in that category now as well) which means I think Lewis could have managed somewhere around 1:53 indoors. That makes him an easy favorite in this 800m field. His speed is straight lethal and he has something to prove at 800m after all the crazy marks this indoors.
Worth noting Jon Carroll, Carlisle's #2 man at 800m, is also in this race. I'm standing firm that I think this Carlisle 4x8 is a sleeper this outdoors with a capital S. This weekend will go a long way towards determining what pieces are in place over there in Carlisle.
3200
This race has easily become the main event of this meet and has produced some pretty cool upsets (Ferruzzi and Trama had coming out parties at this meet not too long ago). The 16 kid field this year looks like it will not disappoint. Kevin James, Jim Belfatto, Paul Power, Chris Kazanjian, Matt Kazanjian and Casey Comber were all top 30 guys in XC from AAA. Dominic Huckleberry is a AA stud who spent the XC season rivaling Dominic Deluca ability. As in the #2 guy in the state this past indoors at 3000m. Plus Christian Kardish was a sub 8:50 man for 3k indoors, which is no easy task. Throw in Scott Mason, Ben Szuhaj and Matt Willig and it's a straight party!
Now I hesitate to get too excited about the potential at a meet like this, but seeing all these names and last year's results (Kev James runs 9:15, Ben Ritz runs 9:19, 7 guys are at 9:33 or faster) is pretty encouraging.
Plus the story lines in this race are just so juicy. First you have the O'Hara duo. Kevin James is a very strong longer distance guy who just PRed at 1200m at nationals and the 3k indoors. He is coming off his best XC season ever and last outdoors he ran marks that would have placed him as a state title favorite in most years. He is the meet record holder thanks to his 9:15 last year. He ran 9:13.98 as just a sophomore.
But is he even the favorite out of people wearing the O'Hara jersey? Belfatto has a ton of momentum, a PR in the low 9:20s and now a 1600m PR split of 4:11 completely solo. Wowzers. Belfatto also has 1:54 type closing speed. That's a scary combination of attributes.
Then you have the Kazanjian story line. These guys always run strong in the 32 outdoors and, although we didn't hear their name called very often besides a sort of one of performance by Chris, they sacrificed a lot for the good of the team this indoors. I don't think that's happening outdoors and I think that means we can see some high quality 32s out of these boys.
Paul Power and Casey Comber are two really exciting up and coming youngsters. Both just race with no fear and continue to improve every week. Comber is particularly clutch at states already, despite having very little prior experience at that level. It is amazing to see where he has come from. Power is also a top notch prospect at this point. Both are Juniors with lots of potential this year and next.
Then you have Dominic Huckleberry who spent indoors watching his old rival the other Dominic run some strong 3k marks that gained him some strong publicity. I'm sure Huckleberry wants to show off that he is on his level and is looking towards possibly beating him outdoors this year. He travels out to PW for this meet and will look to notch some good times to put him up there with Griffin Molino in the AA states 3200m state title talks.
Then you have Kardish's story line. He was a top seed indoors in the 3k. He was a top miler in his younger days but now appears to be making a seamless transition to the upper distances and is excelling. He can use his kick to do big things in the right race and he is not afraid of anyone.
All that rambling and I still left out a variety of guys who could run really fast.
Welcome to the PTFCA 3200m folks.
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