Is the junior jump real?

Sophomore to junior jump?

Look over the years I have convinced that this thing is real. Juniors are statistically far superior to their sophomore selfs. For example in 2013 the aaa Sophs to hit the medal stand started and ended with jake Brophy. In fact there were just 3 Sophs in the top 50 (and one was 49th by the way). In 2012 you had Webb, abert and kev j on the medal stand. In 2011 you got Caleb wakely and Brent Kennedy. That's a total of 6 medalists in 3 years. 6/75.

Over that same span there have been a lot of juniors. 11 in 2011, 7 in 2012 and a whopping 12 this past year. The state champ has been a junior twice over this stretch and a runner up all 3 years! In 2012 out of those 7 juniors 3 were top 5 guys.

So for those of you keeping score at home that's 30/75 compared to 6/75. And the stats would hold pretty strong with a larger sample size (I just don't have the time or resources at this point to check as I'm literally the etrain these days as a commenter wittily pointed out). I believe Conner Quinn was the only sophomore medalist in 10 before winning the state title and leading juniors to 3 of the top 4 spots. The 30/75 for juniors isn't too far off the seniors who are 39/75 over this stretch. And juniors are beating seniors 2-1 in state titles and 8/15 to 7/15 for top 5 performances. A soph hasn't been top 5 since McNally on 05 was 3rd.

Don't even get me started on freshman over this stretch. Brophy was the first one to even be in the medal discussion for a medal in a long time. None in the top 50 most of the other years (brophy is probably the first top 50 frosh since McNally was 13th in 04).

Look it makes sense. There is a natural physical and mental maturing process that needs to happen here. The state course is nasty and it tears you up if you aren't fully prepared for it. You grow a lot physically from your soph to junior year. You get stronger and adjust to mileage. You get a sense of direction. You want to run fast to impress girls because you are really in to them now. It all contributes (admittedly at varying levels. The girls thing is hugely important obviously the rest is up for debate).

So what does this mean? Well first off all it means I'm quite dim for putting Zach seiger so far down on my top 50 list (as another commenter astutely pointed out). About 10 of this years medalists (give or take a couple) are going to be juniors and seiger is far and away a top 2 returner for Sophs at states. About half the top 5 will be juniors if history is any indication. Whoops.

It also could mean jake brophy should be in title talks. A soph hasn't won states since miller in 03 and he was an all timer. Sophs don't win states. Juniors win a lot honestly. Gottesfield Quinn miller and Russell since 2002. Plus shearn Molino beveridge and dunkelburger on the aa and a lists (oh goodness imagine counting the juniors from that 2011 aa race? I'd still be counting ...).

Plus you have to watch out for Jaxson hoey who had a killer track season and becomes a real nationals threat as both a teammate and an individual. He doesn't race at states so it will be hard to declare him as pas best guy next year (the aaa guys have a huge advantage when deciding who the best guy was in the state, but Dustin Wilson earned the title pretty easily in 2011 I would say), but would it surprise you that much if he became a 15 low stud? Not for me.

And of course there is my personal sleeper pick dom perretta. I see big things out of this guy this year. He was doubling and tripling like a maniac last year and still running solo 1:52 and 1:54.0. And being pissed off about the 1:54.0 double gold. This guy expects to win the state title in cross and with another year under his belt he's going to go toe to toe with griffin Molino.

Fun fact Sophs swept the aa track races last year thanks to perretta and Dominic don't call me huckleberry hockenbury. And there were 3 Sophs a top the aa 3200m race. So watch for hockenbury kachman and loevner to do big things this year as well.

So after pointing out what I did above you are probably saying ... Wait etrain I thought Sophs never did anything? Well suck on that those guys were state champs. Yes that's a fair point, maybe a tad agressively states though, you might want to calm down a tad.

What happened on the track this year in aa was something special. A really impressive group. But track is different than cross. The end of your soph year is closer to your junior year than you think. Your 16 by then in most cases and that may be the magic number. Plus (and don't take offense to this aa guys) aa has less overall talent then aaa and the cream rises to the top faster. It's why I chose to keep my stats strictly on a aaa basis. Doesn't mean that aa Sophs won't make big jumps as juniors (heck yes they will) but it's just a different scenario.

Also one last point: the state course is really hard, hills and things like that complicate the picture a bit. Strength, maturity and poise are more important. Look at Matt kacyons progression and tell me he didn't grow up a lot from soph to junior year. His improved tactics got him about 70 places higher at states in one year.

I will say this, however, we can expect there to be sophomores who are studs. You'd have to go back to 2006 to find a group without a sophomore medalist and that was thanks mostly to an incredible senior class with a few very good juniors to steal the remaining spots. There is almost always a top 7-12 sophomore to take note of.

2007- miles 10th
2008- ayers 8th (excellent soph class with 4 in the top 20)
2009- hibbs 12th
2010- Quinn 20th
2011- Kennedy 7th
2012- abert 12th
2013- brophy 8th

So somebody who was a freshman last year is almost definitely going to be a top 15 guy in the state. Your guess is as good as mine on who that will be (my early pick is somebody like Matt scarpill or Eric Kennedy) and likely the best soph in the state will be calmly running in a gfs jersey away from the Hershey madness states weekend (nick Dahl).  Honestly the top soph may not even emerge until the end of the season. That's how it works most years honestly.

So get excited for what our Sophs will grow into and get excited for what our freshman may become.

Oh and seniors too. They tend to do pretty well I guess.