What's next for Henderson?

What becomes of Henderson?

The boys from west Chester are back to back state champions. But their chances at a three peat seem unlikely. How good should we expect the 2014 warriors to be?

Look Henderson loses a lot from one of the best distance squads in state history. Obviously they lose Anthony Russell, one of the best xc men in state history but they also lose Reiny Barchet who was 5th last year and an all American as a junior. He also ran sub 9:05 and 4:10ish. Then you lose two more sub 9:20 guys in Strat and Collins plus a sub 16 guy in Moy. That's a squad and a half right there. Most teams would kill to have a combination of those guys over the  span of a decade.

But Henderson is well coach and consistent. Should we call this a rebuilding year or a reloading year?

If we think about the two teams closed to this Henderson squad in ability I'd say it's probably the Coatesville national champ squad from 06 and (if we don't count the 2012 Henderson squad) the Ohara squad from 2012 (also could argue 2008 north allegheny because of their great depth as well).

Coatesville graduated their entire top 5 in 2007 and returned a 6 and 7 who were not sub 16 nor were they top 50 guys at states. The strength of Coatesvilles national championship was honestly dependent on 5 guys and they were fortunate those 5 guys were clutch and consistent.

But without those 5 guys in 2007 Coatesville stunned everyone by finishing 2nd at the state championships, beating out North Allegheny and Upper Dublin both of whom were favored heavily over the cville crew. That was where the whole rebuild vs reload thing started.

Coatesville went on to promptly never be relevant on the top stage again. Somehow they have faded into complete obscurity with 0 medalists since 2007 and Connor mclaughlins top 40 performance in 2010 being the closest mark.

North penn in 2007-2008 was the last back to back champion before wch got the double golds. North penn was an interesting story just to pull of the double. It wasn't like Henderson in 12-13 who returned a significant portion of their top 5 after their first title. North penn lost two of their top three guys who were state medalists and returned Brad Miles (coming off an injury as well I think) and then a group of guys who was solid but not sub 16 or well under 10 minutes or anything like that.

But north penn picked up Sam Bernitt from the soccer squad, turned him into a top 10 guy at states and won another state title as their guys continued a steady progression to the top. That squad went about 6 deep and was really carried above lasalle and north allegheny (the best team in the state that year) thanks to huge performances out front a solid day by Quintrell and Stauring (always came through at states and regionals without fail).

That year they graduated 3-6 on their roster and had a bit of a large drop off down to 7. I mean at leagues that year my teammates and I beat all their Jv guys and trust me I was never a quality cross guy.

But north penn used Miles and Bernitt fire power (1-2 at districts) and a slew of newbies (young Chris Trimble and Dan Davis plus a big day from David Delong) to stun for 2nd overall behind the eventual state champs. (Can't remember who that was exactly, but I feel like it was a team that also won states last year).

Then north penn lost miles and Bernitt and Delong. Their top 3 and literally the heart and soul and firepower of their team. They couldn't recover from that. Except they did. They were 2nd at districts again. The next year they were back on top of the state.

And what happened next? Right when north penn seemed like they were invincible? They disappeared from the state landscape. They have not qualified as a team since their state title and jack Macauley has been their only top 50 finisher (small sample size here admittedly).

So the moral from these previous two examples? Just when you think a team is untouchable everything can change. But the moral also is great teams and great runners have a lasting impact. The key is to have guys on your team who remember running with those guys and remember what it takes.

Now look not every team falls off. North allegheny has been 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 3rd, 4th and 2nd since 2007. In 2007 they were led by two seniors who carried the team with top 12 finishes. The next year they were better. They were 12th at nationals and one of the best teams in the state despite being a disappointing 3rd at states. They lost 3 key seniors from that squads top 5. The next year north allegheny was even better. They finished 2nd at states. They only had one guy in the medals but they still beat out the absurd pack of lasalle. And they just kept turning over the roster and being good. Now they are the favorites to add another title crazy enough. Those great Baldwin teams from 09-10 are rolling in their proverbial graves. Same with that Lebo squad from 11. Those teams just found ways to win. Wpial title after wpial title.

But really the team that reminds me most of this Henderson squad is Ohara the last two years. Ohara was probably less than a second from being back to back champs in 11-12 and were 5th at nationals as a team, second best finish in state history. They returned a big slew of guys in 11 and competed outstandingly for the title in 12. Then they lost 3 of their top 5 including their top 2 (at least their top 2 at states). Ohara would be solid the next year but I'm not sure anyone really expected them to be a clear cut 3rd in the state behind two very good squads. Ohara had a fantastic year and despite being young they remixed the roster, nick smart grew into his own and kev James embraced the front runner role. Now Ohara, despite losing 2 of it's big 3 (and that big 3 was huge in their success on and off the trials) is poking it's head in at the party saying, hey we are gonna try and be in the conversation to win another state title if that's cool with you guys.

But Henderson somehow returns less than Ohara did, less than north penn did, less than north allegheny did and maybe even less than Coatesville did (but probably not). Alex knapp is the line returner from 2013s title squad. He was fantastic last year but now he instantly becomes the leader of the team and the #1 guy with a fair bit of pressure on him.

I remember Andrew Mahoney well. He's the Coatesville guy who returned in 2007 and made that team believe. He kept them hungry and kept them on top one more year before he graduated and things fell off. He was perfect for that roll. That's the kinda guy Henderson needs in the lockeroom.

I personally am a big fan of knapp. As a sophomore he quietly steadily progressed all season, earned the honor of running at states and then straight up saved Henderson at regionals and helped them punch their ticket to nats when he was their #3 tht day. In 2013 he again calmly continued to progress each race to the point where he was sub 15:40 and 18th at states. He has never had the flashy track times but clearly he excels on the trails. He could definitely be top 10 at states next year.

Then who's next? Gordy Barchet comes back from injury. He was a strong runner when healthy and could easily have been inserted on the state championship team in 13. He's not far from sub 16 already. Will Swart is a strong runner as well, he's just had the misfortune of being buried in one of the deepest rosters of all time.

There also is rumor that Henderson will be reloading a few freshman with serious potential. Something like Reinys 14th at districts as a freshman could be coming?

Unfortunately we don't quite have a perfect picture of hendersons roster because they eliminated the jv race at districts (an extremely sad moment for me personally as that is where my season peaked 3 straight years and I'm sure that's the case for a lot of runners on good teams but I'm getting off topic).

But look in 2011 Henderson was 1st at districts and 5th at states (despite not having their best day) and that team lost their #1, #2, #3 (Barchet due to injury), and #4 from a second place team at states. They lost the meat of their roster and turned it into a contender.

In 2006 Henderson was second at states behind the legendary Coatesville squad and lost their 2,3 and 5. The next year, despite having two top 20 guys in the state, they failed to qualify for states.

It's cross country! Anything can happened!



(Hopefully nobody is too mad about reading a big long post where I basically said, "yeah no idea what is going to happen with Henderson this year". I'll tell you what I think now, they will be competing for top 5 in state and tops in d1. Just so you won't feel too let down. They are my 4-7 team in the state right now if I'm ranking squads. Which I might be soon. Stay tuned.)