Tall Paul Weighs in on Paul Short

By: Paul Hayes

I know HS previews aren’t typically my thing, but Jarrett thinks his viewers might be tired of “reading me speak”, so he wants a different perspective on things. And the meet has Paul in its name. I basically have to do it.

It’s no secret that the course at Lehigh is very fast. The flat, easy layout can really play into the hands of the speedsters out there that typically shine brighter on the track. That said, this is still XC and the true studs will likely put on a good show tomorrow.

Individuals-Brown Race

This race is going to be loaded individually, headlined by Sewickley Academy stars Griffin Mackey (ET#8) and Ben Clouse (ET#30). The duo went 1-2 at Pre-States, and Mackey has gone sub 15:40 already this year on a similarly fast course down in North Carolina. Look for Mackey to be in the top pack, with Clouse doing what he can to stick with him.

Matt Kravitz (ET#14) comes in as the top PA returner from last year’s race, where he set his PR of 15:39. He finished 2nd to Hock at pre-states, showing good strength on the Hershey course. Considering his 4:17 mile speed, he should do very well at Lehigh, and make for a good race up front with Mackey and others. 

Big man Kevin Lapsansky (ET#15) comes in from D11, looking to improve upon his 15:48 PR set at this meet last year. Last year we saw his former teammate Colin Abert run away from the field with a jaw-dropping 14:55. He’s been relatively quiet this year, but I think Lapsansky could really step up for his last go-around on a fast course and hang with the top pack. 

Jeff Kirshenbaum (ET#13) didn’t run here last year, but that won’t take anything away from his potential to take this race. Coming off a PR of 15:45 at Bulldog a few weeks ago, and could look to take that momentum forward into this week. He’s only lost to Jake Brophy and Nick Wolk this year, so he’s certainly in the running to take a top spot here.

Don’t sleep on Zach Lefever (ET#19), even though his PR of 16:08 is sitting 20-30 seconds behind some top guys. He finished less than a second (0.99s to be exact) behind Lapsanskyat PTXC, which means he’s certainly confident enough to hang with the top pack and will be there in the final straightaway. 

Also in the mix should be Liam Conway (ET#40), the talented sophomore leader for Owen J Roberts. He’s coming off a top-10 finish at Pre-States, and his 1:58/4:28 speed on the track as a freshman can’t be overlooked when racing at Lehigh. He’s younger than most of the field, but I can see him getting into the top pack and finishing well. 

 

I’m going to make the quick disclaimer right now that I have no idea what the times will be like, as they’re usually tough to predict at this meet anyways with people going for different goals, and Hurricane Joaquin may be ruining some people’s days this weekend to make predictions even more of a mess.However, to quote my HS coach, “There’s no sense in complaining about weather when everyone’s dealing with it.” So assuming everyone deals with the weather, my top 5 are as follows:

1. Griffin Mackey, Junior, Sewickley Academy

2. Jeff Kershenbaum, Senior, Methacton

3. Kevin Lapsansky, Senior, Easton

4. Matt Kravitz, Senior, North Pocono

5. Liam Conway, Sophomore, OJR

 

 

Brown Race-Teams

What I’m really excited for, other than Jarrett rocking his pink shorts in a hurricane for all of you, is the team race. By my math, which at this point is just rough approximations in my head because I don’t feel like doing real math, shows that this is going to a very close race for the team title. 

Hershey comes in with an honorable mention on Jarrett’s team rankings, boasting a strong pack with a tight spread that could pack it in quickly at this invite. OJR runs slightly opposite, boasting Liam Conway as a very strong front runner looking for a low stick, who is then followed by a solid group that took fourth at pre-states against very impressive NA and La Salle squads. 

Narrowly topping OJR at the Centaur Invite was Parkland High School, lead by junior Hailemichael Geiger, who probably has an intimidation factor just from his name. Look for them to be in the mix with OJR and Hershey’s pack.

My sleeper pick in the teams might be a tad biased, but my alma mater West Chester East is in consideration for a top 2 finish in my book. Rob Moser has stepped up as best he can to fill in for the void left by Eric Diestelow, and is being followed closely by seniors Sebastian Hoyos and Jared Franz. WCE has historically done very well at Paul Short, and with some pre-season injuries healing up and the team working well together, I don’t see a reason why they couldn’t steal the show in this team race.

 

Final Predictions: The top three are as follows, separated by less than 15 points total

1. Hershey

2. WCE

3. OJR

 

White Race

I can’t find too many individual stars in this field, but the team race looks to be tight between Shanahan and William Tennent, with WT’s top three of Sean Rahill, Evan Hutton (not to be confused with our Western PA writer Evan Hatton), and Dylan McHenry. Those three can put some serious low sticks in with or ahead of Shanahan’s pack, with a developing 4-5 that could bring it home with a good day. But at the end of the day, I think Shanahan’s pack gives them the edge here, and they come out on top. 

If you don’t feel like doing math for Jarrett’s prediction contest, leave your top individuals or teams in the comments below, and discuss.

 

Train Hard,

-Paul Hayes