XC Top 50 Rankings: #30-21

30. Tyler Rollins, Sr DT West (1 AAA)

The 2017 Cross Country season will be an important one for Downingtown West. They just concluded their 3^rd straight season as a top four team in the state of Pennsylvania, including a state championship in 2015. However, they’ve lost almost all the pieces from that dynasty graduating six of their seven state varsity members this summer and leaving only Tyler Rollins left on the roster.

The good news is, Tyler Rollins is a strong guy to keep on the roster. He ran 16:18 at districts last spring, placing 40^th and then took 63^rd at states, providing a big lift as the team’s #3 runner. That’s a nice jump for a guy who, as recently as the Carlisle Invitational, was “just” a junior varsity runner. On the track, Rollins went on to add marks of 8:59 for the indoor 3k and 9:25 for the outdoor 3200, making him a state qualifier in the event.

DT West is a proud program who will want to stay in the mix for a league title and state qualifying spot in an always loaded Ches-mont and District One. They had sneaky good depth last year, but they will need Rollins to step up and become a front runner if they are going to remain among the elite. I think he’s got the ability to make that happen, but only time will tell.

29. Mark Brown, Jr Greensburg Salem (7 AA)

A year ago the South Fayette 1-2 punch of Aaron Pfeil and Sam Snodgrass grabbed the last spots on my top 50 rankings list. That proved to be a worthwhile decision as the pair rolled through the season as two of the best in the WPIAL, finishing things off with a 4-6 finish at AA states. This year, I think there’s another 1-2 punch in the WPIAL that could be just as good in Mark Brown and Cameron Binda.

A year ago, Brown really shined as a promising sophomore. He was 2^nd at the RWB Invite to start his season, defeated only by Tristan Forsythe (and only 2 seconds separating the two). He was top 13 in every race he competed in this season, including a 4^th at the WPIAL championships (ahead of the aforementioned Snodgrass). The only races he was even outside the top 10 were Foundation and States (which admittedly are run on an important course for long term success).

On the track, Brown was a key member of the Greensburg Salem breakout 4x8 that ran 7:51. He also clocked a 4:25 for 1600 meters. As a freshman, Brown ran 9:38 for 3200, so the strength is clearly there as well. I’m really banking on Brown’s jump from sophomore to junior age to help pay dividends on the state stage. That extra experience should help in the high pressure situations and hopefully end in a top 5 finish this fall.

28. Garrett Baublitz, So Juniata (6 AA)

I’ve been doing the top 50 list for a while, but I’m not sure I have ever had 6 sophomores in my pre-season top 51. That’s wild to me. But we’ve got some of the most accomplished youngsters around lurking, ready to take the next step this fall. Perhaps the best freshman this past season on the track was Garrett Baublitz of Juniata. He was on fire on the oval, ending his year with a 4:19 clocking at the state championship that got him on the medal stand. Baublitz also placed 3^rd in the outdoor nationals freshman mile.

But before all of that, Garrett was attacking the cross country trials. He won the freshman race at Carlisle, clocking the races only sub 17 minute time. He also added a 16:25 to place in the top 10 in the white race at Paul Short, just ahead of WC East’s frosh Josh Lewin and top 12 A state finishers Jack Miller of Jenkintown and Tim Kennel of Dock Mennonite. Then, to top it all off, he won the AA boys district 6 championship.

Now Baublitz struggled in his first trip to XC states, but I expect him to be back with a vengeance this season. The District 6 AA landscape should be improving (the top 8 finishers from last season all return) which will help push him in the lead up to the big dance and the confidence in his closing speed should add an extra dimension to his 5k. I like the fact that he has won races before, including a ton on the track, and I think that winning instinct will serve him well. He needs to prove he can handle the hills, but otherwise Garrett is ready to grab another state medal.

27. Dan McGoey, So North Allegheny (7 AAA)

It was a bit of a transition year for the North Allegheny Tigers last year. After they graduated their top 3 runners for the second straight season, NA was not able to hold onto their absurd district title streak as the boys from Seneca Valley toppled them in an epic battle. Considering Seneca Valley returns 6 of their top 7 for next season, there may be a changing of the guard happening in the WPIAL.

But I wouldn’t count out the Tigers in 2017. Although they will once again graduate a considerable amount of varsity talent, North Allegheny will return experienced veteran TJ Robinson and rising sophomore Dan McGoey, the latter of which ended his freshman season with a 12^th place finish at WPIALs and a 45^th place finish at states. It’s the best finish by a freshman for the Tigers since a man by the name of Ryan Gil who are older visitors may remember as the 2010 state champion in cross. McGoey also carries the family name of 8:56 3200 Matt McGoey, another all-time great in the NA program.

Regardless of all the comparisons, Dan’s individual marks speak for themselves. He ran 9:36 this past season on the track, peaking at the right time for the WPIAL championships. McGoey did the same thing on the cross country trails, setting his invitational PR on the Hershey course to close out the year, a pretty unheard of achievement. A year ago, NA lacked a front runner to get them over the top. This year I think Dan could potentially move into that role and lift the Tigers back into the top 5 teams in the state.

26. Sean Rahill, Sr William Tennent (1 AAA)

It was a big year for William Tennent. The gradually ascending program saw some huge breakthroughs on the trails and the track this season. They had a state medalist on the track for 800 meters and two top 50 finishers in XC in now graduated Evan Hatton and Sean Rahill.

Rahill showcased a glimpse of his talent as a sophomore, but had a bit of an up and down season adjusting to the XC scene. As a junior, he got off to a bit of a slow start relative to Hatton, but then turned it on when the lights were brightest. Sean clocked three sub 16 marks in his last four races prior to states, including a 15:41 time at the William Tennent Invite (ahead of most of the CRN army that would take the state crown). Rahill also added an 8:57 clocking indoors in the 3k, qualifying him for states in the event.

At XC states, Rahill was a strong 37^th, after going out the first mile the cusp of a medal. The hilly courses from early in the season gave him a bit of trouble, so the state result at the end was pretty strong. He will need to continue to improve that strength as he enters his senior season, hoping to climb onto the medal stand.

25. Jonah Powell, Jr Grove City (10 AA)

One of the biggest surprises from district week was the absence of state powerhouse Grove City from the Hershey qualifying spots. A talented field left few spots up for grabs and, unfortunately, Grove City missed out on a chance for yet another top 5 state finish. It also meant Jonah Powell, who had medaled as a freshman, would miss his chance to race at the state meet as a sophomore.

Up until districts, Powell had been rolling. He won three invitationals, including a run on his difficult home course in 16:14, and took 4^th at the Foundation meet with a time that would have been fast enough to place him in the top 7 for states in November. And to reiterate here, he was just a sophomore.

On the track this spring, Powell proved that his failure to qualify for states in the fall was a fluke. He dropped very impressive times in a variety of distances, highlighted by a 4:22.08 that was nearly enough to sneak him into the state finals. My gut tells me Powell will come back with a fire this fall and he’s got the chance to join all-time greats in Jacob Kildoo and Dan Jaskowak in the Grove City archives.

24. Seth Ketler, Jr Seneca Valley (7 AAA)

The boys from Seneca Valley have to be feeling good after the season they put together in 2017. They matched their best state finish from the last decade or so with a 4^th place team finish at XC States and then went on to medal in the 4x8 with not one, but two, school record setting marks in the prelims and finals. The final time was a blazing quick 7:46.

Playing a key role in both of those marks was Seth Ketler. As just a sophomore, Ketler split around 1:56ish for the SV boys and ran a 4:24 for 1600. Ketler was also the 34^th place finisher at states and the #3 returning sophomore in AAA. Like Dan McGoey, Ketler clocked his best invitational 5k time of the season at the state championships.

Seth steadily improved during the 2016 XC season, moving closer and closer to the #1 spot in his team. He seems to be a gamer who rises to the challenge in the big races and he has a great group of training partners to push him in practice every day. Seneca Valley will be gunning for a team title this fall and, if Ketler can make a leap to the top 15 in AAA, they will be a real force to be reckoned with.

23. Bryce Ohl, Sr York Suburban (3 AAA)

Over the past three seasons, York Suburban has won their district title and placed in the top two at states every year. Now, with six of their top seven guys returning, they will try and make it a perfect four for four. Leading the way practically since he arrived has been Bryce Ohl. As a freshman, Ohl placed top 10 at districts and top 50 at states. The next year, Ohl was again top 10 at districts, but this time moved to 34^th in the state.

Finally, during his junior season, Ohl decided it was time to take another leap. Leading the team as the #1 runner for the first time, Bryce was 2^nd at districts and 8^th at states. Up until that point, Ohl had struggled a bit on the Hershey hills, but he decided to try a wait and kick strategy this past season and it paid off. Ohl jumped from 55^th to 24^th to 8^th at the various mile markers.

The 2017 season is a big one for York Suburban. Dallas has defeated them not once, but twice in a row, despite terrific showings by this powerhouse squad. Let’s see if Ohl can inspire this squad in his final season and end his career the way he started it: with a team state championship.

22. Quinn Serfass, Sr Loyalsock (4 AA)

Serfass is far from a household name. In his own district, he’s been overshadowed by a variety of stars, including Tyler Leeser and Isaac Davis. But Quinn defeated both of those guys last fall when he won the District 4 championships. He then followed it up with a 10^th place finish at the state championships. Serfass will be the #5 returner in AA with a lot of talented juniors just behind him in the state standings.

Quinn ran 15:57 last fall at Paul Short, grabbing a new PR in 20^th place. It was the only invitational he raced prior to his district championship win. On the track, Serfass ran a new PR of 9:30.23 for 3200 and picked up another state medal, just behind fellow juniors Brendan Miller and Andrew Stanley. This upcoming season, Serfass will have a strong training partner in Ryan Sullivan who has joined him as a state qualifier the past two seasons.

21. Jack Wisner, Jr Carlisle (3 AAA)

The 2017 season must have been a real rollercoaster if you were a part of the Carlisle Herd. Noah and Sam Affolder joined the team in the fall and instantly catapulted the program into state title contenders in all three seasons. They didn’t have a huge amount of depth like some other well-known programs, but Carlisle proved quickly the talent they did have was more than enough to be dangerous.

As only a sophomore, Jack Wisner handled the pressure of the moment very well. After a rocky start to the season, Jack got healthy at the right time. He had his best race of the year at districts, 24^th in a deep field, and then doubled down on that brilliance with a 33^rd place finish at states. This came after being in 119^th place at mile one. That performance was almost the difference maker for Carlisle and certainly helped them lock up an easy silver medal. On the track, Jack really shined. He won a state title for the indoor 4x8, ran a great leg on the Carlisle Penn Relays DMR and then closed out the year with times of 1:56 for 800 and 4:24 for the mile.

The problem now is: how will Jack do on his own? Carlisle loses that big top three from a year ago, leaving Wisner on the roster as the only top 150 finisher from states a year ago. The talent is clearly there (Wisner was the top freshman in XC and the #2 sophomore when you take out Sam Affolder), the program is clearly strong (Carlisle has a long streak of team state qualifying performances going), but training adjustments are never easy. In typical Wisner fashion, I expect Jack to be off the radar early, but to finish with lightning speed.

That’s it for now! It will take me a little longer to prepare the top 20 during this 4^th of July weekend, but in the meantime, how many members of the top 20 remaining can you guess?