AAA 4x800m
Central Bucks West and State College. The teams have
combined to win five of the last six AAA state championships. CB West is
currently on a three year winning streak as they won the last three contested
state championships dating back to 2017 when they edged out , who else, but State
College 7:40 to 7:41 to win gold. At 2020’s indoor state championships, State College
won the fast heat and the state title in 7:52. CB West won the slower section and
grabbed a set of medals. It seems like these two teams have been circling each
other for years and 2021 may bring us another epic match-up.
In my opinion, State College enters this one with the
clear favorite status. They won their district meet uncontested and still ran
the fastest time of the week. They had three individual state qualifiers in the
800. They are the defending indoor state champions and they have the reigning
Cross Country state champion in Brady Bigger. It feels like this team can get
to low 7:40s if they have the right competition and that’s really hard to beat
most seasons.
The three time defending champions from CB West don’t boast
the same individual times as the Little Lions, but the boys I like to call the
Yellow Jackets (I think they are technically the Bucks which is even better and
I’m upset I never thought of that) do have a 1:54 man in Carter Fitzgerald (who
has some great quarter speed to pair with his 800 speed), a 1:58 from Conor
Gross and 1:59/4:24 from Eric Mass. Plus, they’ve got a legacy to protect out
in Shippensburg. And they went all in on the relays which could play to their
benefit. West was really tested at the District Championships, Haverford gave
them some real push early and North Penn and the familiar jersey of Pennridge
were skulking as well. It will be interesting to see if that proves to be a
good test that makes the Yellow Jackets battle-tested for states or if it is a
sign that they can be toppled.
But enough about these two teams. I can hear you yelling
from your computer chair (eh, who am I kidding, you’re reading this on a cell
phone while you’re sitting on the toilet). It’s taken me way to long to mention
the boys from Lewisburg. That’s at least partially because I’m so used to them
being a AA team, I was already handing them the trophy for that state
championship and I didn’t even realize they had been bumped up a classification
(looks like their girls team is still AA ironically which is super weird given
the schedule changes). But let’s be honest here, Lewisburg is a threat to win
the AAA state title without a doubt. They went toe to toe with State College
already this year and just barely were edged out. They just soloed 7:51 which
just missed SC for top time of the week.
Real ones know (that’s a thing kids say right?) that they’ve
got Thomas Hess, who just dropped a 1:56 to win districts, Calvin Bailey, who
just popped off a 4:19 to win districts and Gianluca Perrone, who posted a
1:57. James Koconis has run under 2 minutes as well. The relay is so good that
Elijah Adams (ran 2 flat in the open at districts) and Jacob Hess (sub
9:20/4:21 double at districts) don’t even to be included on the squad (I would
have been intrigued to see what Jacob could have done on a relay carry though).
Most of these fast individual times came recently (like two days ago recently),
but that’s a sign they are clicking at the right time. I really like this team
a lot and I think they are experienced enough at this stage that they can handle
the pressure. After all, they’ve won two straight XC team titles.
Alright, this post is tracking to be well over 1,000
words so I hope you like reading because I still haven’t talked about a few
teams that I think could challenge for the win. I’ll try and speed through
this. Butler is an interesting team. They’ve got two absolute super stars in CJ
Singleton and Skyler Vavro so right there they have the potential to be low 7:50s
high 7:40s. That said, Singleton will have a 3200 in his legs and both guys are
among the top seeds in the open 16. Even if Butler is chasing a team title (and
I can never keep track of who is or isn’t chasing that thing), it still may be
optimal to ditch the 4x8, let some other guys get the experience and hope for
some magic. The team pulled down a medal a few years back without Noah Beveridge
(my goodness was that three years ago now?) so they’ve proven they can be deep.
Cedar Crest, North Penn and Pennridge are the teams that
not only have a lot of talent, but have a lot of pedigree as well. Cedar Crest
knocked off CB West in 2010 to win the state championship and is an annual
medal threat, picking up hardware at the 2019 outdoor meet and 2020 indoor meet.
Bildheiser is a monster and I think he can hang with anybody on anchor. Ryan
Wolfe will need to be their x-factor. And North Penn has won the outdoor state
title 9 different times (their due at this point, haven’t won since 2008). Both
of those teams seem like good bets for the medal stand, but Pennridge is my
real wildcard. This team always finds a way to come on strong at the exact
right moment. Most notably for me was their 2015 state finish where, after
graduating Joey Logue (a 1:51 guy and an all-time great half-miler), the school
busted out an incredible 7:40 runner-up finish with three underclassmen. Even
in 2019, Pennridge laid relatively low at districts and then nearly stole the
state title. If it wasn’t for an absolutely monster anchor from Blake Ewaskey (I
had him at about 1:50), Pennridge might have taken the gold (shout out to Ethan
Zeh as well who carried Radnor ahead of Pennridge for Silver). Reice has been strong
this year and Lera-Lozano is a really nice piece who I could see having a
breakthrough at the 800 (has shown a lot of ability at the longer stuff, but
Pennridge knows how to coach up that speed).
Oh man, still so many good teams. Hempfield won Lebanon
Lancaster Leagues in the 4x8 (over Cedar Crest) and although they were probably
hoping for more at districts, I think they can reset and refocus this weekend.
I expect a big bounce back. Lampeter Strong is another fun district three team.
Arik Harnish is their best guy and he runs second leg which I always find
incredibly fun. Those kind of strategies can really pay dividends at states.
Plus they’ve got a freshman Colin Whitaker who runs like he’s a senior. Big
talent (12th at states in XC). Haverford was really good at the
District 1 meet. They didn’t quite close it out, but the pieces are all there
for a run into the top 4, especially since this appears to be each of their
runners only event of the day. And I can’t leave out Twin Valley who has an explosive
talent in Noah Taylor who can do everything from run 1:55 to 9:24.
In the “slow” heat, it feels likely that someone will
produce a medal. Even though the fast heat is stacked, history says that the
slow heat winner generally (not always) finds a way onto the podium. And by
history, I mean indoor states because this sort of thing has never happened
before outdoors. Your best et for that would probably be Seneca Valley (1:57
guy plus they may throw Noah Peterson on the relay who is a long distance guy,
but a talented guy and sometimes that’s all that matters), North Allegheny
(speaking of talented guys, they are the reigning XC state champs), or LaSalle
(has an armada every year, it’s just a matter of how they will choose to deploy
it). Pittsburgh Central Catholic is really good as well, I just didn’t have a
fun parenthetical expression for them so they got the short end of the stick.
Ultimately, I think this is State College’s race to lose.
Seeing their top three guys at districts was really impressive and I’m not
ready to pull the trigger on an ultimate David vs Goliath upset pick (based on
school size at least) in Lewisburg. So I’ll lean on the 2020 indoor state
champions and the XC state champion and predict they take care of business to
bring the state golds back to Happy Valley and end the Yellow Jackets win
streak.
8. Haverford 7:53
7. Hempfield 7:51
6. North Penn 7:50
5. Cedar Crest 7:48
4. CB West 7:47
3. Pennridge 7:46
2. Lewisburg 7:44
1. State College 7:42
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