AAA 800m
This is it. Last of the prediction pieces. If you’ve been
reading along in chronological order, you’ll know I’m not necessarily expecting
this, but this race could begin with Gary Martin going for an unprecedented triple
gold. It is what I can only call the Jimmy Springer triple and I’d really,
really like it to happen. But I’m nothing if not consistent, and when it comes
to doubling, I have a hard time picking against fresh legs. Unlike the 1600,
the top of this field will have some guys who have been waiting for a while to
get after it.
Let’s start the conversation with Darius Smallwood. The Pottstown
senior has the state lead this year, having run 1:52. But that’s not what makes
him interesting to me. What makes him interesting is the fact that Smallwood
routinely ran 1:53 or faster in dual meets with no one running within 20 seconds
of him. That’s absolutely wild. At Districts, when he had the best competition
of his season, he was handed his first surprise. The pace went through in only
about 59 seconds and the kickers took over, sending him down to third place in
the final standings. Smallwood will likely make things go here in the final.
Will he change strategy and go out the first 400 like no one can beat him, the
same as he did in his super successful dual meet runs, or will he feel out the
race and let things be a kickers battle once again with extra preparation for
how he might be able to win? That’s my biggest question mark heading into the
last distance event of the weekend.
If things do go tactical, Eric Albright looks like the
guy who will benefit most. He closed in a 54 second final 400 off a 59 second
start which is absolutely insane. The guy clearly has awesome speed, but he has
great strength as well. He’s been at 1:54-1:55 for a while (including 2 years
ago when he was 5th at states as a sophomore), but now he’s moved
into the 1:53s and honestly I think 1:52 or 1:51 is probably in his future. His
first priority will obviously be to win so I’m not expecting him to be the pace
pusher, but if Smallwood changes things up or Martin is feeling good and ready
to be aggressive, then Albright may get pulled to a big PR and a big gold.
Holden Emery is the other interesting name with fresh
legs. The CB East senior was second at the indoor state meet in 2020 and
returns to track states for the first time since then. Emery has hit 1:53.95
this season and also split a 1:53.66 on his team’s 4x800 relay. He’s proven
that he can handle the pressure of the big stage and proven he can produce in a
kicker’s race. If the pace is hot, we will see if he can lower that PR and upgrade
silver to gold.
Outside those three, it’s really going to be a matter of
whose legs are feeling good. Of the top names, Brady Bigger (1:53 this year,
District 6 champion), Tommy Bilderheiser (1:55, District 3 champion off a
kickers pace), Sean Adams (1:54), Thomas Hess (District 4 champion) are all
doubling off the 4x8. So too are Arik Harnish and Ryan Wolfe who could factor
into the front of Section 1 and end up medal contenders when the dust settles
on Heat 2. Bigger has the fastest PR but he will be tripling at this point and
could be on only fumes.
If you want a wildcard pick, you could bet o Jacob
Puhalla of Moon Area. The kid won the WPIAL championship (no small feat) and he’s
produced some fast times on big stages like Baldwin despite the fact that he’s
only a sophomore. His seed time is “only” 1:56.61 and he doesn’t have the 1:53-1:54
type credentials of your usual state title contender, but he’s clearly a gamer
and a winner and that kind of attitude tends to be what is most important at
states. Benjamin Horner and Sam Elsen out of District 1 boast 1:56 seed times
and survived the gauntlet that always is D1 so they are battle tested and ready
to challenge for the medal stand as well.
In the end, I think this race will come down to Albright and
Smallwood (although I will be keeping my fingers crossed that Martin racks up
two golds going into this event, because that would be so much fun). If
Smallwood takes it out aggressively from the start and runs his race, I think
that maximizes his chances to win, but it also sets him up as a target for the
rest of the field. It will take some real guts to run like that, but I’d love
to see him chase a 1:50 or 1:51 kind of time because Albright might be the only
other guy who can get there (barring a Joe Espinal situation – google it
youngsters). However, I think either way this race is run, I’m going to end up picking
Albright to take the victory. I just think he has all the tools and the
experience and that will make him tough to beat.
8. Benjamin Horner 1:55
7. Arik Harnish 1:55
6. Tommy Bildheiser 1:54
5. Jacob Puhalla 1:54
4. Holden Emery 1:53
3. Sean Adams 1:53
2. Darius Smallwood 1:52
1. Eric Albright 1:51
No comments:
Post a Comment