My Final Thoughts

11 Random Windows into the Mind of etrain

First off, I’d like to let everyone know that I’m going to do my best not to jinx the guys on my fantasy team before the big day on Saturday. So if you notice all of a sudden that I am predicting Marston, Knapp, Milligan, Kolor, Morro, Gunzenhauser and Princivalle to finish in the last 7 spots of states, it’s not because I hate them. It’s because I want them to succeed. And I’m the King Midas of jinxing people. Everything I touch turns to jinx. Good luck to all the members of my squad "Views from the 7”.

Second off, I will be having a 2 hour, “ask etrain” session tonight here on the blog from 7 PM to 9 PM where I will answer any and all last minute questions you might have to the best of my knowledge. The best ways to reach me will be here on the blog, on twitter @jfetrain11 or by email at jarrettfelix1130@gmail.com. I will diligently be checking them all during that time span, then I gotta run. Pun intended.

Lastly, post up your top 25 predictions anywhere on the blog for any of the divisions and you will be entered into the prediction contest. The winner gets a "great job" from me! (and if I come up with a better prize you get that too)

Now on to my post. This will be my last official post before the state championships, so I hope you enjoy some of my final random thoughts about the state meet.

1. Are Kevin James and Ryan Gil living eerily similar lives?
 Here me out on this. Freshman year both guys are top 5 guys on up and coming teams that are set up for state title runs for the first time this century. However, both teams had disappointing finishes and barely missed a medal (Ohara ties for the championship and loses, NA loses 2nd by single digits).

The next year Gil and James each develop into studs and find themselves as leaders on national contenders. Despite that fact, both teams end up suffering the same fate as states as the year before, despite putting 3 in the top 30 and having a soph in the 20s. But after states both teams find some redemption at regionals and nationals. Although they don't have the 1-2 punch of their competitors (miles and Bernitt the north penn juniors, Reiny and Russell, the WCH juniors), they have better packs, specifically killer top 3s (Gil, Morgan, Broussard v Savage, James, Pitone) both groups are 2 seniors and a soph. Throw in the 4-5 (a junior and a senior, both underrated XC guys) and the similarities continue to be straight eerie.

Flash forward to the next year. A depleted team for both squads makes people doubt either team can content for a title. Both teams are surrounded by the mislabeled rumor that they are "chokers". Gil and James continue to prove they are studs and fight valiantly all year. At the end, both teams have surprisingly strong finishes in Hershey (NA second and close to the win, O'Hara 3rd and close to beating NA). Both Star juniors finish in the top 4 behind just 2 seniors, one who goes on to be a regional champ, the other who is an individual national qualifier who goes on to win a state title in track (miles and rad Gunz, Russell and Ross Wilson). Gil and James both qualify for nationals as well individually. Eerie right?

Well then Gil went on to run 9:03 in the 3200m in track and still didn't get the title! How often does that happen? We should probably ask Kevin James who did the same thing as a Junior.

In senior XC both guys got some title talks but had to worry about scary packs from inside their own district (Baldwin and LaSalle) who gave them serious trouble back to back weeks before states. People gave up on both guys for individual title picks and their team title potential was in serious doubt.

Here's how Gil's story ended: he took double gold against one of the best senior classes ever and a somewhat weak team year.

I'm telling you it's spooky. Let's see if this holds up one more week.


2. Tony Russell’s mark will be beaten in all three races.

I just got a feeling. Look that time is killer but Tony himself probably could have ran faster as a senior if he pushed it.

And you want to know what else? The weather was supposed to be horrible in 2012 before Russell won. It was Sandy year I believe and some people predicting the winning time would barely be sub 17! (Seriously, look at my old blog, it was supposed to be brutal slow).

This year the weather is supposed to be fantastic, and unlike Russell all three of these top guys (Abert, Hock and Griff) aren't afraid to gun it and really want that course record. And it's not like they aren't talented enough. Abert already ran 14:55 this year solo, the most impressive performance I can remember in some time. I'm thinking all three winners are 15:44 or better (not necessarily those 3 guys but that's the kinda time) and we have double digit guys sub 16. I hate to predict fast times because a lot of the time we get caught up in the hype and predict too boldly, but I honestly believe it. I think Abe finishes the day with something in the 15:37 range.

3. Did you guys happen to see the permutations of NA, OH and WCH?

Each of the last 4 year these three legendary squads have finished in the top 5 overall teams (the only 3 programs to do it all 4 years). Ironically every year they finished in a different order.

2010: N, H, O
2011: O, N, H
2012: H, O, N
2013: H, N, O

Meaning we are missing the following:

N, O, H and O, H, N. My prediction for this year was those 3 in the top 5 again with N, O, H being the order (one of our new combinations). Hmmmm


4. There is been at least one Junior state champ every year since 2010.

I always talk about senior leadership and experience and maturity and blah, blah, blah, but guess what? There has been at least one junior state champ in XC in one of the divisions every year since 2010. And you know what? There are good odds there will be another one this year (Brophy, Hockenbury, Perretta among the names). Maybe time to revisit the theory.

5. Half of the returning medalists from the last 5 years have finished worse the next year.

This is a sad fact. There have been exactly 50 underclassmen medalist between 2012 and 2008 and 25 of them didn't improve at states the next year. That's 50% on the nose. I won't speculate on who, but there were a huge number of underclassmen medalists last year (13!) meaning 6 or 7 would be expected to drop spots. Unfortunately, we already have one victim in Jeff Van Kooten.


6a. 5 in the top 50 and still losing seems impossible … but it’s happening a lot these days.

Both O'Hara and North Allegheny did it in 2012 and 2013. That's crazy. Neither of them grabbed titles. In the new class system 5 in the top 50 might just not be enough. LaSalle could end up another part of the trend this year if thing go wrong.

So ...

6b. Is three medalists the new necessary in AAA?

With the depleted race, the 4-5 seem to have become a bit less relevant. 3 medalists were on the state champ teams in 2012 and 2013. The runner ups each had 3 in the top 30. The third place teams each 3 in the top 30. Only when you get down to 4th and 5th do things start to even out a bit. So the top 3 seems to be becoming more important.

This year we will see if that holds with NA and O'Hara having excellent top 3s and, on paper, few other teams close by. WCH will be a very compelling story here as well as their top 3 (and maybe top 4) could be very strong.

(One small bonus thought, in 2 classes, D1 had exactly 8 AAA medalists for 4 straight years, the last two years have been 11 and 12. Did the class change open up the doors for even more D1 dominance or is this just a coincidence?)

7. A sophomore hasn’t won an XC state title since 2003, and before that who knows?

I'm just saying. This barely ever happens, but every once in a while a talented guy comes along and stuns the field. Maybe this is the year. I picked Skolonevich in one prediction and although I was partially trying to be interesting, I also think he is one of the most talented XC guys we have had since McNally (who ran 15:02 as a frosh). Griff Mackey is also a super soph with potential to be in the top 5 in A.

But it's the year of the Sophs! Hock and Perretta did it in track, why can't it continue to XC?

8. Bros
So I only checked for AAA (because I know those medalists without looking it up) but here are sub sibling medal winners from the last 5 years.

Sam Hibbs (3x, Josh and Dan)
Jeff Van Kooten (Scott)
Alex Izewski (Josh)
Ethan and Colin Martin (2x, each other)
Michael Beegle (Bryan)
Tom Luff (Sam)

As far as I can tell that's it. This year we have some other brother nominees (Ryan James, Todd Gunzenhauser, Gordy Barchet, Eric Kennedh) and a chance for the first pair of non twin brothers to win medals in the same meet since ... Honestly don't know, at least a decade I have to imagine.

9. When is the last time D1 hasn’t had a top 2 AAA team? How about D11 having the AAA winner? Or the PCL having a state champ?

I have predicted all those things at some point. It's possible none of them have ever happened in my life. Historic year? Or very wrong predictions?

It tends to be the second one sadly.

10. Could there be 20 AAA senior medalists?
 There were 12 last year and on average over the last 6 years (since the move to poop out) there have been 15 senior medalists. The most has been 18 (the loaded class in 2010).

This past year we had 12 junior medalists (easily the most of the last 6 years) and just 1 sophomore medalist to break it up (the lowest of the last 6 years). A 1:1 junior to senior relationship like last year is crazy. The closest was the 9:13 of 2009 (the year just before there were 18 seniors).

20 senior medalists seems crazy, but on paper it's very possible. I'm not blown away by this sophomore class, and the senior class is really, really good. 20 is within the realm of possibility.

11. Is the district 3 curse real? Or I am just being lame?

Eh, can't say for sure here. There have been AA champs from district 3 (a lot actually) and there have been girls and teams in other divisions who have gotten it done.

But still, I'm convinced it's a disadvantage. I guess I can't prove it, but this year I could get some really good evidence. York Suburban is the AA favorite, Camp Hill had a nice team with 2 front runners, and AAA is loaded. Plus Dan Green and Aaron Gebhart are studs.

The last six 6 years (i.e. since poop out) 14 D3 medalists, 16 D12 medalists (despite sending less than half the number), 32 D7 medalists and 55 D1 medalists.

D7 over double D3 and D1 almost 4x as much. Mind blowing. D3 is average roughly 2 medalists a year which means in theory one of the 3 won't get on the stand: Brehm, Gebhart, and Seiger. And that doesn't even open the door for any of the other really good runners in that district (too long of a list to discuss here).

I purposely avoided D3 guys in my fantasy draft an picked against them at almost every turn in various predictions, even though I love the D3 teams this year. Let's see if this course thing is for real.

12. Wouldn’t it just be awesome if O’Hara won the state title on a tie breaker?

I couldn't help it. I just think this is the coolest way to end this 4 long stretch of bad luck. I'm kinda rooting for it to happen.