State Championship Recaps: AA Boys

I think one of the trickiest things about being a cross country fan is the fact that you can’t immediately tell who won the team race while you are watching. I mean you can certainly guess and sometimes it’s fairly obvious, but while watching the state championships at Hershey this past weekend, I had no idea who was our AA team champion until my fourth refresh of the runhigh results page.

At the mile, the Dallas boys got out hard and put themselves in a strong position. But what was striking was the front running of Harbor Creek. The HC boys had three runners in the top 10 overall. That was pretty wild front running and really gave this team an edge against the pack driven squads they were competing against. Seeing those two teams out so well made me focus on them for the next few miles, but I knew Wyomissing and York Suburban would be lurking.

Trying to keep rough track of all 4 teams was brutal and I couldn’t quite wrap my head around how many of each jersey passed me by. At the finish, I was surrounded by supporters from different squads. Dallas and York Suburban fans were keeping track of runners from each of those teams and comparing them to Harbor Creek and Wyomissing. Meanwhile, I was trying to subtly eavesdrop on both conversations while still counting runners for myself to try and have something to write in this recap.

Ultimately, when I finished watching I felt like Wyomissing might have taken it. They seemed to have the most guys flying by me on the corner of the straightaway. That being said, I had completely lost track of York Suburban and didn’t even notice that Raudensky had joined Ohl in the top 10.

The final standings ended up being even closer than I had previously suspected: 105-107-111. A few seconds here or there and the title swings. For Wyomissing, they proved they had the best pack in the state. I was worried about their potential inexperience in the clutch, but the squad came to play. They had to be feeling pretty confident after their district championship and perhaps they were fueled by a lack of respect from certain people on this site. Regardless, the team posted a 29 second spread with 5 in the top 50 overall. Harbor Creek had 3 guys in front of their #1 which, in dual meet scoring, would mean the race was already over. But in a big time XC invitational, every scoring spot is meaningful. Josh Diehl had a great race in 39^th and Thomas Foster, one of the potential scorers I was most skeptical of in my predictions, came through with a clutch 46^th place finish to really bring this thing home.

For York Suburban, they don’t have much to hang their head about. For the fourth straight year, they were in the hunt for a state championship on the final mile of states. That’s a pretty difficult task. Tanner Haynes had an excellent race to step up as the team’s #4 runner. He wasn’t a scorer for this team at times this year, but he stepped up when the pressure was on. Raudensky pulled out his first state medal and Bryce Ohl was 2^nd overall and #1 in team scoring. You can’t ask for much more than that. Ohl’s individual result was very impressive. He was top 10 last year, but that came mostly in the second half of the race, picking people off. This time around, he went to the front pack early and looked very strong over the final mile, running 5:51 for the 1.1 (the fastest split of any runner in the race it appears).

Harbor Creek left with three runners in the medals and 4 guys in the top 50 for a second straight season. Nate Dougan came on super strong in the last meets of the season and is a big reason why this team was able to finish as high as they did at districts and states. District 10 on the whole posted 6 of the top 17 overall finishers, three of which came from Harbor Creek and two of which came from General McLane. And, oh by the way, six of them will be back next year including the #1, #2, #3 and #4 overall returners in the AA classification!

Grove City returns to the top 5 after a year away, led by a huge bounce back day from Jonah Powell. Powell was third overall with a time of 16:18. Dallas posted 2 medalists and 4 top 50 guys to cap off a crazy strong stretch of running for this program. They didn’t leave Hershey with state gold, but they went for it and really stuck their nose in it in the early going. You have to respect the heart and determination that went into their run. Congrats to the class of 2018 at Dallas on a truly memorable three year stretch.

Other props in the team department go to Loyalsock and Greensburg Salem. Loyalsock had a phenomenal showing from their top 3. We knew about Quinn Serfass (4^th overall), but his teammates Ryan Sullivan and Alejandro Quintana were the keys to this team’s surprising 6^th place finish. Sullivan broke into the last medal spot and Quintana raced to 30^th overall, just outside medal position and #3 among sophomores in the race. District 4 in general overachieved relative to my expectations. Milton also cracked the top 10 with one of the tightest packs in the field. Tyler Leeser stepped up to be the #1 runner and a top 50 finisher after being the #5 at districts. Some serious hard out of Leeser down the stretch of 2017.

Meanwhile, Greensburg Salem had their own big three that included two medalists in Mark Brown and Cameron Binda as well as 34^th place finisher Dylan Binda. GS finished as the #1 WPIAL team a little over a week after they took the 3^rd spot at districts. That’s two years in a row the #3 WPIAL team has been #1 at states. Greensburg Salem brings everybody back next year. Of course, Indiana Area and New Castle will both bring back a strong contingent as well. Indiana’s Kendall Branan was perhaps the biggest breakthrough star in the WPIAL the past two weeks. The sophomore finished 11^th at the state championships, moving from 18^th at the two mile to catch back up for 11^th. He was just 4 seconds away from the top sophomore spot, held by Garrett Baublitz of Juniata (he took 9^th overall).

Let’s jump to individuals now. Isaac Davis took command of this one from the start and rolled through the course en route to a 15:56. When you incorporate his 20 second margin of victory with that blazing time, Davis might have been the most impressive individual performer of the meet (although I think Rusty earned that spot). Davis was out in 4:41 and already opened up a 8 second lead by the mile. By two miles that was up to 23 seconds. It’s going to be very interesting to see if Davis runs Footlocker. If he goes, I’d have to imagine he’s a contender for a top 10 spot. He’s yet to be pushed this season and he’s rolled to some incredibly fast times. We saw a AA runner make Footlocker a year ago (Skolnekovich) so why not Davis this time around?

Although he likely didn’t have the finish he hoped for, you have to give credit to Sam Snodgrass. The South Fayette senior already had a couple state medals from the XC state meet, but this time out he was hoping for gold. Snodgrass was the only one to stay within striking distance of Davis’s blistering early pace and that left him a prime target for the chasers behind him. Although Snodgrass finished 21^st, he really went for it on race day and you have to respect that strategy. If he attends a national meet, he could have a big bounce back performance like his WPIAL ally Skolnekovich did a year ago. Or maybe he’s ready to turn to indoor track, where Snodgrass is one of the top returners in the mile (he medaled last winter).

As mentioned, the D10 boys will have quite the battle next year. These rivals will make up the top 4 returners at the state meet. Throw in two time top 20 finisher Erik Andrzejewski and you have an absolutely stacked district. Powell had the biggest day at states after arguably the worst day at districts. He showed some real grit to bounce back and nearly pulled out the silver. Price, the district champ, had his best ever state meet result after not medaling a season ago. He’s made a big jump and should be feeling confident heading into next year. He knows he’s beaten Powell in the past and could potentially knock him off in the race for gold next year. Meanwhile, Stravaggi and Weber are two teammates have learned a lot from one another over the years. They could push each other to a big result at states as well just as they did this year with two top 10 finishes.

District 3 had a pretty stand out day individually as well. They posted the top two teams so naturally they were going to have some front running, but some lesser known stars came to play as well. Ben Reisenweaver of Schuylkill Valley absolutely crushed the course, running a 16:46 for 18^th. He was 8^th at districts in a slower time. Gettysburg’s Luke Milhimes also jumped into the medals this weekend, adding yet another piece of hardware to Gettysburg’s high stack of awards.

But the D3 trio that impressed me most was that of Lancaster Mennonite. This school had 3 top 50 finishers, including two in the top 30. Logan Horst led the way for this squad with a state medal. I said this in the early season, but it bears repeating: last year Lancaster Mennonite was last in the District as a team. They had no top 100 finishers at their D3 championships. Abenezear Abebe, who took the 26^th spot at states (1 away from medaling) was 170^th at districts last fall with a time of 20:04. And that wasn’t a fluke-he was also over 20 minutes at the league championships. Now he was just 2 seconds away from a state medal. That’s quite the jump and definitely something worth celebrating.

District 6 had a nice year this year as well. After being relative non-factors at last year’s state meet, they had a top 10 finisher (Baublitz), and three other top 50 guys in Brett Pope, Zach Kohler and Ohm Vyas. Vyas and Kohler will return next year along with Baublitz who was the top soph in the field. Also have to give a shout out to John Koons and Ethan Bernstein. Both of these district rivals got to share the medal podium this weekend in 14^th and 15^th place overall. That capped off great seasons both athletes. Lastly, Van May of Bedford ends up the top freshman in AA. He took 27^th overall, just outside medal position. May was the #1 freshman by roughly 40 seconds over Matt Chaikowsky of Saucon Valley, Zach Buckner of Fairview and Dylan Throop of General McLane.

State Championship Recaps: A Boys

The first boys championship of the day featured two clear favorites, both of which had pre-race concerns. For individual favorite Tristan Forsythe, it was the ghosts of state meet past. He led the race through two miles a year ago, but couldn’t hold on to the finish. For Penns Valley, the concern lay with the two freshmen who would likely be pivotal pieces of the top five. By the end of the race, both of these concerns proved to be overhyped.

Forsythe cruised in the early going, settled in to a large pack at about 5 minutes through the mile. He sat comfortably in the pack until it was time to make his move, going up the hill towards two miles. If he had any doubts about his strategy, they weren’t evident as he calmly took control of the race. His closest challenger at the time, Upper Dauphin’s Brenden Miller, was unable to cover the move and ultimately Forsythe was able to break the tape with a 15 second margin of victory.

Meanwhile, the Penns Valley freshmen looked like veterans on the Hershey hills. PV packed it up in the early stages of the race, sitting back just a bit off the lead. Then, over the second half of the race, the boys closed quickly and ran down many other top runners, putting away any doubts about their gold medal status. Colton Sands and Brendan Colwell both finished in the medals as freshmen. Sands was 10^th overall in a time of 16:48. Meanwhile, Chris Colwell and Sam Gray also busted into the medals at 15^th and 24^th. That was more than enough to slam the door on the competition.

You can make a strong argument that this Penns Valley team is the best we’ve ever seen in A. They didn’t end up beating Saegertown’s record low from 2013, but they faced a much tougher team title landscape than Saegertown did. I was certainly impressed by the freshmen stepping up, but one of the most underrated performances from PV was 6^th man Charlie Romig. At about the two mile mark, I thought there was a chance Penns Valley could slip up as their #5, Mark Bierly, was slipping a bit off the pace from the front four. But Romig, in his best performance of the season, stepped up and helped push Bierly through to the finish line. He would have been a more than capable #5 in his own right at 51^st overall.

In the end, the battle for second ended up being the race of the day. At the 2 mile mark, Elk County Catholic was sitting in 5^th place overall. But the 2016 state runner-ups came to play over the final mile and stormed through the course to pass Jenkintown, Montrose and Winchester Thurston en route to the finish. Ben Hoffman led the way with an 8^th place finish after hitting the mile in 34^th. His teammate Logan Hoffman was just one spot out of the individual medals. Isaac Wortman, Matt Dippold and Jacob Carnovale rounded out a top 5 that all finished in the top 52 overall. The front running for this squad was solid, but ultimately it was their depth that kept in them in the medals for a second straight year.

I have to give credit to Montrose for putting together a strong race. A year ago, I think they felt the pressure of the moment, but this year they handled themselves very well. Their 1-2 punch came to play big time. Brandon Curley and Liam Mead, who both had disappointing finishes at states last year, really came to play this year and finished 5^th and 6^th overall. I thought Curley would be a factor (he was the district champ and has been around my top 50 rankings all season), but I didn’t see this breakthrough coming from Mead. He threw down an awesome performance and is now a top 3 returner for next year’s state meet. His Montrose team will also return top 40 finisher Colin Spellman and scorers Max Brewer and Eric Bixby.

A few other key team notes to hit on. Seneca had a big day from their #2-3 of Jake Schneider and Robert Stepnowski. They pushed all the way to 6^th in the final standings thanks to these two runners coming up big. Schneider and #1 runner Brock Smith will lead the Seneca squad next year. Mount Caramel was the first team in the standings without a top 20 team finisher. They posted 231 points and took 9^th in the state. That’s not too shabby for a team that entered this season as underdogs just to qualify for Hershey. Derek Lawler, just a freshman, came up huge with the team’s lone Top 50 finish.

Now let’s talk individuals. For Forsythe, this is obviously a big win. He cruised to victory yet again and has been relatively unchallenged in most of his races. That will make him an interesting darkhorse at whichever regional meet he pursues. That being said, you have to give credit to Brenden Miller. The Upper Dauphin senior really struggled over the last mile at Hershey last year. This year, he pushed hard to give everything he had to beat Forsythe and it looked like he might slip on the last loop again. Yet Miller powered all the way through for a strong second place showing. Overall, Miller has been quite the inspiration (there’s a great story on penntrack that was linked in a comment somewhere on here) and I think he could potentially have big success in college.

Jack Miller of Jenkintown ends up as our #1 returner. He leads a nice contingent of Jenkintown youngsters that will be sophomores next year, including top 50 finisher Luke Miller. Jack ended up just 1 second back of Brenden and made a nice push on the homestretch to try and catch him. Sophomore Andrew Healey of Holy Cross, who has raced side by side with Miller at three major invites in a row, will be the #2 returner. Healey leads a nice crew of sophomores that, along with Ben Hoffman, include a group of Adam Hessler from Freedom, Hunter Armstrong of Marion Center (16^th after running a solid portion of the race in the top 10), Noah Bernarding, Luke Mantzell and Carter Kauffman. Those guys were all medalists this year.

Some of the big “bracket busters” from this weekend included Kamil Jihad of Neumann Goretti. I did not see this coming out of Jihad. He was a top 50 finisher at states last year, but the 800 specialist never struck me as a true distance runner. He was the runner up at his district meet after winning it the previous season. But Jihad brought his “A” game to states. He put himself in medal position early and held on through to the finish. He put on an awesome kick off the final hill and really looked strong coming home. Remember, this guy is a 1:52 800 runner who also specializes in the quarter. Great range from this kid.

The Elk Lake duo of Peyton Jones and Cody Oswald both placed in the top 30 overall. Jones got Elk Lake back on the medal stand for the first time in a couple years. That was a long overdue achievement for this historically strong program. I’m not sure if Peyton is related to former two-time state silver medalist Luke Jones (also of Elk Lake), but if so this kid could be a name to watch looking ahead. Jones has made a nice name for himself in his own right and should have plenty of company to push himself next year as Healey and Mead are in his district and two of the top 3 returners in the state.

A few other shout outs go to the Cambridge Spring boys (nearly two top 50 performances from some borderline state qualifiers), Gordon Pollock (posts an 11^th place finish to cap off a really strong season in the shadow of his state champion teammate and a great 4 year career progression) and Zach Gould (another medalist I didn’t see coming). Lots of young guys coming back next year including a nice crop of freshmen and sophomores. This could be an interesting race in 2018.

It’s 6:45. The alarm goes off. It takes a second to realize where I am. I’m not used to waking up in this bed. My dad’s up too. Up for good? Or waiting to steal my bed back when I leave? Either way it’s nice to have someone see me off.

There’s a split second I’m worried the car won’t start. It doesn’t get a lot of use. The windows are opaque and dirty. A few wipes from my sweatshirt helps enough to get things off the ground. Then it’s open road.

I’ve saved a podcast for my drive. Bill Simmons. I’m only about 65% engaged. The other 35% is inside my own head. That’s typically where you find me. It strikes me that my most important Hershey appearances have been as a blogger, not a runner. I was never a state qualifier. I just talk about them.

I pull up to a toll booth. No EZ pass in my grandma’s old whip. I give the guy my slip. He doesn’t say how much I owe, so I just give him a $20. I start to judge him. Seems unfriendly. Hates his job. But he sees my Oregon sweatshirt and strikes up a conversation. Asks about their football jerseys. We have a good talk. Now I’ve got a different opinion. Lonely job. Nicer than a lot of other toll boothers. He reminds me that you have to be careful if you judge without the full story. And now I’m back on my blogging …

9 bucks for parking. I suppose that’s not too bad. I just paid over 100 for Sixers tickets. I get out and walk around. Headphones in. No more podcasts. Now it’s just music. I walk in obscurity. The sweatshirt conceals my etrain swagger and my secret identity. I do my Bane impression inside my head. Nobody cared who I was until I put on the shirt …

It feels awkward being here. I feel old. I walk around the course, checking the conditions. I walk around the tents, looking for a few coaches I would like to finally meet in person. Bear Claws is playing on my iPhone. I like that song.

By the first boys race, I’ve put together a plan for spectating. I take pride in my efforts to see lots of different points of any race I watch. Naturally, I skip the start. It’s overrated. I’ve got the first long bend, the first significant uphill. The first significant downhill. Two miles. Finish.

I try not to run too much. I’ve gotten more self-conscious about my odd running form as I’ve aged. Although I think that’s because I’ve gotten slower. Not because I’ve gotten older. Running or walking, I still get there in time for what I want to see. You can tell Forsythe has it at mile two. Penns Valley looks like they are slipping for a moment. But at the finish it’s clear that was an aberration. Race one holds form.

By now, Garrett is here. I speak for the first time since the toll booth. I’m welcomed into the Great Valley tent. Things are starting to feel right again. My confidence is up a bit. Zat is a good hype man. I notice his new Stride Report shirt. It’s pretty dope. He’s modest about his growing site, but he’s excited. I remember those days. I’m happy for him. He’s worked hard for this.

The talk runs over into my AA prep time. I’m a little late to my spots, but I quickly get the gist. Dan Beck fills me in. It’s the Isaac Davis show. Team race should be interesting. I go everywhere, but the score is never obvious. I’m watching Dallas and Harbor Creek. I can’t count more than that. It feels like a lot of Wyomissing guys are going by, but it’s hard to say. Some bib numbers are covering the jerseys. I can’t quite see the W. Oh well, I’ve been wrong before.

One race to go. I’ll have company for this one. The first checkpoint is more crowded than any race before. A ton of LaSalle alumni are here. Even some from my generation. They weren’t here last year. They know what’s at stake. Meanwhile, I’ve forgotten Upper Dublin even has a runner in the race.

It looks like LaSalle is out well. All 7 guys. They’ve got an army. CR North is in the mix. I forget to even pick out DT West from the crowd. I’m seeing some faces for the first time. Piecing jerseys together with past performances on a piece of paper. But man is this race about more than a piece of paper.

North looks good at the finish. LaSalle may not have that second front runner. But I’m only about 35% engaged. I’ve actually got someone to cheer for in AAA. That excitement distracts me. It’s not until I’ve restocked my supply of etrain shirts that I even remember there was a state title up for grabs.

Another tie. My mind jumps right to 2011. Almost an identical score. History repeats itself. But this time LaSalle avenges the O’Hara loss. It’s poetry. Although I learned I have to be careful with that word. It can be used against me.

I assume that will be it. The races are over. The Zatlins are gone. I’m alone again. I trek over to the awards. Just a few things left to say before I’m gone. Little did I know what I had waiting for me.

Lots of kind words. Lots of handshaking. Lots of pictures. At one point, there’s three teams worth of a crowd around me like I’m standing on a stage. I wish I had something better to say. Maybe I’m just meant to speak through words on an internet page. I’d like to connect more. Show everybody what their support means. When someone is says how they are excited to read their name on my site, I share their sentiment. I’m excited they read (their name on) my site.

I feel like I always remember the answers on the drive home. Yes, we did/do have a writer who goes to Penn. I forgot. That’s my bad. With my free time, I’ll probably try and really dig in on my book. I don’t think “I thought you’d be taller” is really a question. Yes, I’m real, I’m just glad all of you are real too. I guess not all the views are from people looking for a map of the E subway train.

Of course, that makes it sound like it was all a disaster. But it was an amazing experience. The only reason I’ve lasted this long is because of the readers and it was nice to have a reminder of who exactly those people are. Because, in case you forgot, this sport is about more than performances on a piece of paper.

A lot of people asked me if this was it. Would this really be the last year? I think I answered them all the same way. If I didn’t, I meant to. I’m pretty sure this is it. This will be my last year of cross country coverage.

But like I said-I’ve been wrong before.

Thank you everyone so much for your support and congrats to all on your accomplishments this season. Recaps coming later this week, a brief break for other stuff, regionals coverage and then we have track left together before I hang it up. Looking forward to the rest of the year.

State Talk

A Individuals
A Team

AA Individuals
AA Team

AAA Individuals
AAA Team

Personally, I like how the AAA team preview came out. I don't feel great about the predictions, but I think it is a good read. It is admittedly on the long side.

XC Fantasy Draft 

Draft teams are:

MCXC

1 Rusty Kujdych, Neshaminy

14 Sam Owori, Seneca Valley

15 Avery Lederer, Penncrest

28 Owen Isham, State College

29 Tavonne Davis, Allderdice

42 Andrew Foster, Ephrata

43 Michael Samson, CB West

PA Don’t Play

2 Noah Beveridge, Butler

13 Ethan Koza, CR North

16 Seth Ketler, Seneca Valley

27 Peyton Sewall, DT West

30 Vincent Twomey, LaSalle

41 Riley Williamson, Parkland

44 Sam Early, CR North

Ryan1220

3 Josh Hoey, Bishop Shanahan

12 Mitchell Etter, State College

17 Brendan O’Toole, North Penn

26 Sam Gatti, Pitts CC

31 Ben Hoyer, Wissahickon

40 Christian Groff, Hempfield

45 Evan Kreider, Cocalico

LXC

4 Morgan Cupp, Mechanicsburg

11 Liam Conway, OJR

18 Jared Giannascoli, Lower Dauphin

25 Jacob McKenna, Spring Ford*

32 Kyle Burke, Abington Heights*

39 Christian Fitch, Fox Chapel*

46 Dan Uhranowsky, Abington Heights**

CPFC

5 Ryan Campbell, CR North*

10 Dan McGoey, North Allegheny*

19 Jack Wisner, Carlisle*

24 Colin Cramer, Southern Lehigh*

33 Tyler Rollins, DT West

38 Jonah Hoey, Bishop Shanahan

47 Calvin Pash, WC Henderson

Views from the 7

6 Tyler Wirth, Wallenpaupack

9 Spencer Smucker, Henderson

20 Brendan Knepper, Mechanicsburg

23 Brett Brady, Butler

34 Ethan Hermann, Allderdice

37 Czar Tarr, Chartiers Valley

48 Jason Corenlison, Cheltenham

MCXC17

7 Evan Addison, LaSalle

8 Carlos Shultz, Phoenixville

21 Jacob Underwood, Wilson

22 Patrick Anderson, Mt Lebanon

35 Chayce Macknair, Mifflin County

36 Brayden Harris, Mifflin County

49 Xander Ermold, Governor Mifflin

*Autodrafted
** Trade Out

2017 PIAA XC State Previews: AAA Team Preview

Here were are. The final preview post to be posted. By all accounts, this is the most wide open team battle we’ve had in a long time. 2014 was an interesting discussion although I feel like North Allegheny put the clamps on the title in the late stages of the season. In 2012, O’Hara was the favorite, but Henderson was definitely in the discussion. Regardless, the championship was only realistically in play for two teams. The fabled 2011 season has been discussed a lot as it relates to this year. There’s some similarities certainly between top teams (2011 O’Hara-2017 CR North comes to mind) and maybe a “random” team will win states like North Penn did that season in one of the biggest jaw droppers in meet history.

Personally, I don’t jump to 2011, but rather 2009. I’m not expecting a random team to jump from third at districts to first at states (sorry OJR), but I do think it’s a real toss-up between a tight group of strong teams. 2009 was a really interesting battle between 5 teams: LaSalle, Altoona, North Allegheny, Henderson and Baldwin. Those squads combined to take 22 of the top 40 team scorers and were tightly bunched throughout the race. Henderson actually went from 4^th at the 2-mile to 1^st at the finish. I’m hoping for an exciting race like that between our top teams in 2017.

A couple other things, then I promise I’ll move on to actually talking about specific teams and not historical trends. Since the move to three classifications in 2012, the 5 teams from District One that have qualified for states have placed in the top 10 overall every single year. You can right it in pen. Of course, I’m not going to put all five teams from D1 in my top 10 and you can bet I’ll be wrong. District One has also had at least two top 5 teams each year.

North Allegheny and CR North have placed in the top 10 each of the past five seasons so expect them to be back. At least one PCL team has been in the top 5 each season. At least one WPIAL team has been in the top 5. The WPIAL has two top 10 teams 3 out of 5 years, but never had all 3 team qualifiers in the top 10 or 2 team qualifiers in the top 5. District 3 has had 5 top 10 teams in 5 years. Of those squads, 4 were either Carlisle or Cumberland Valley (the other one being a 10^th place finish by Lower Dauphin 2012). Easton is the only team from District 2, 4, 10 or 11 to break into the top 10 in the last 5 seasons. State College has represented D6 with 3 top 10 finishes.

And, oh by the way, the AAA team titles have gone to either a district one champion or North Allegheny every year since before some of the people competing in this year’s race were even alive (OK, that’s an overexaggeration, but November 2004 is 13 years ago now!). So keep all that history junk in mind as I jump into my predictions.

Lastly, my apologies to the teams I left out of my top 10. If you’d like to hear my analysis for those schools, hit me up in the comment section.

10. State College

The Little Lions have emerged as an XC power. Last year, I counted them out of my top tier pretty quickly and paid the price for it. They ended up 7^th overall and had multiple top 50 finishers. This year’s team may actually have better front running as I’m projecting two state medalists for State College. I think they’ve got a solid #3 so the spotlight will really be on the 4-5. Now the Lions have secret weapon likely coming over from the JV race in sophomore Ben St. Pierre and I think guys like Messner and Horn will have a little extra spark on race day when it’s states and not districts. I think D6 champs doesn’t inspire the same urgency as D1 would.

9. Carlisle

As I mentioned up top, Carlisle has two top 10 finishes in the past 5 years. Just a year ago they were second at states. Meanwhile, most of their closest competitors have struggled to transition from districts to states. I’d wager the Herd will be the best team in terms of transitioning from Big Spring to Hershey and, therefore, I’ve reserved a spot for them in the top 5. At districts, Carlisle looked solid, showing some nice potential at #1 and #5, but their middle three guys left me looking for a little bit more. Based on what I saw midseason at the Carlisle Invite, those guys could all have big days at Hershey. If one of them (maybe Drew Barefield) can sneak into the top 50-60 places, I think this team is in a really good spot. Plus, Jack Wisner is one of my individual sleeper picks. Don’t be surprised if Wisner ends up the top junior in the state this weekend.

8. Owen J Roberts

I’m obviously not allowed to have favorites as an allegedly impartial blogger, but have you seen my spelling and grammar? I’m not exactly a professional. I’m rooting for Owen J Roberts to win the whole thing this weekend for a variety of reasons. First of all, it would fit well with the theory, “When it’s a crazy year, the 3^rd place team from D1 wins it all” (happened in 2011 and 2005) because how could that not be a fun statistical anomaly to get more data in support of. Second of all, how crazy would it be if Owen J Roberts won states? They have barely even had state qualifiers this decade and I believe their last state medalist in XC came back in 2006. Plus, once upon a time, I met some fans of the blog from OJR who seemed pretty chill. Do kids still say chill?

Regardless, if we are looking at this critically, there are some things in OJRs favor. For starters, their program has consistently improved from week to week. They are trending upwards while a lot of other teams have been relatively stagnant. It seems like there’s a positive culture here to go with the talent. They’ve got a solid front runner in Conway who should get on the medal stand. Andrew Malmstrom is suddenly a medal contender after his district race and looks like he has big upside. They’ve had a deep team all season that goes through to the JV squad. Realistically, I think they’ve got an outside shot at a top 5 finish if they continue to click. I think it will come down to who steps up at #5. Last time I called on somebody to step up at #2 and they delivered so now let’s see what the #5 spot has to offer.

7. Spring Ford

Personally, I think Spring Ford had a ton of pressure on them at districts. Yes, they were favorites to make it to states, but it was no guarantee and if I was one of their top 5 guys I’d be having nightmares about another #6 finish. So with the monkey finally off their back, I think they will be able to simply relax and have fun at Hershey. That makes these guys really dangerous. On the right day, their pack can run with anyone. Jacob McKenna has shown the ability to be a state medalist. If Zach Smith and Shane Ainscoe deliver big days, I think this team is going to be top 5 in the state and possibly knocking on the door of top 3. The Rams remind me most of the 2014 DT West team that snuck through to states and then finished 4^th overall there.

6. North Allegheny

The Tigers have been overshadowed in a loaded WPIAL this year, but let’s give this squad credit. They pieced together a strong pack and, after looking like long shots to make it to states, are lining up again at Hershey. Considering this team was able to outlast Mount Lebanon, a consensus top 5 team in the state all season, they should get some buzz. Couple that with the fact the Tigers have been top 6 in the state every year since 2005 and I think we’ve got a sleeping giant on our hands. They have the front runner they desperately needed last season in Dan McGoey and, although they don’t have that absurdly tight spread this year, they do have a solid pack of contributors. Phillips made a nice jump last week so now maybe it’s Turkovich’s turn for a big day or Nalepa or James. They don’t need much to break right in order to pass Butler or even maybe Seneca Valley in the final standings.

5. Butler

The Golden Tornadoes, or as I like to call them, the Bull Dogs, are fresh off a huge 2^nd place finish at the WPIAL championships. Butler was just a few ticks of the clock away from knocking off Seneca Valley who, as of the writing of this post, is Penntrack’s #1 ranked team in the state. So why not Butler for state champion? They’ve got an individual low stick in Beveridge. They’ve got Brett Brady, who ran an excellent race last year at states, to lead at #2. Aden Dressler is a little bit more race seasoned after WPIALs and could be more of a factor in Hershey. And if Robbie Hays can get to the line on both feet, there’s a couple more points right there. If things go right through 4 runners, they will be competitive with every other team in the field. Then the spotlight turns to projected #5 runner Camden Seybert. The senior was only 11 seconds back of Seneca Valley’s #5. SV may end up with the best #5 in the whole meet, so that’s not a bad place to be. Also don’t forget about freshman Skyler Vavro. If he has done enough to earn a spot on the varsity squad, he becomes an interesting wildcard in the state championship picture.

4. Seneca Valley

I’ve been a big fan of this program for a while now and have been super impressed by how they have coached up this team. They are a lot of people’s state title picks and I think that’s for good reason. They’ve got two almost sure file medalists in Seth Ketler and Sam Owori. Connor Volk-Klas is one of my sleepers on race day. I think he will sneak into the top 50, but if he can jump into the top 30 or even get on the medal stand, this team becomes scary. They should, at the very least, make the podium with that kind of top 3. But lots of teams are solid out front. If Seneca Valley wants to really get the edge, they need to put together a strong pack at the 4-5. I think Alex Dixon will likely swing the championship hopes for SV when all is said and done. A big day from him and the golds could be heading to the WPIAL.

3. DT West

Before I get into the weeds, here is how District 1 Champions have done at states over the past 5 seasons: 1^st, 1^st, 2^nd, 1^st, 1^st. Pretty good right? What about the 5 years before that? 5^th, 2^nd, 1^st, 1^st, 1^st. Still looks pretty good. In fact, in a decade’s worth of District 1 championship results, the champion has never lost to the runner-up at the state championship. So I’m very unconfidently going against history on this one.

If DT West even cracks the top 4 this weekend, they will join a pretty elite club. The Whippets (by the way, when this is all over, someone will need to explain to me what a Whippet is and they better not mention Devo) were 4^th in 2014, 1^st in 2015 and 3^rd in 2016. While I’ve been remotely following this sport, the best 4 year runs are: Henderson 2^nd-5^th-1^st-1^st, North Allegheny 3^rd-3^rd-2^nd-1^st & 4^th-2^nd-1^st-2^nd and O’Hara 2^nd-2^nd-3^rd-3^rd. Those are the big three so West has a chance to get in some pretty elite company.

Of course, championships are not won based on what you did in the past. Fortunately for the Whippets (but seriously, what is a Whippet), they’ve got a ton of talent right now. Peyton Sewall and Tyler Rollins could both finish in the medals. Evan Kaiser is quickly gaining steam. Isaac is good too, I just can’t spell his last name so he ends up left out of a lot of my work. They are the deepest through seven in the state (I think, LaSalle has a good case) and they are clicking at the right time. They just won against the toughest district in the state after rolling through perhaps the toughest conference.

What worries me about West is their ability to front run. I see a lot of guys on teams that qualified mixing it up for medals. They have to have at least one guy in the medals or they risk ending up like LaSalle from that 2009 race I talked about at the top of the post (you probably haven’t read all of this post in one sitting because it is so long, so scroll back up and revisit it if you’d like). Wallenpaupack, Parkland, Mechanicsburg, Shanahan, and Allderdice are all teams that (no offense) probably won’t be competing for a top 5 spot at states. However, they all have a guy or two that could get in front of West’s top guy and push up their score. For most teams, I’ll be watching the #4 and #5 guys, and that will certainly be important for DT West, but these guys also need a big day from the #1 spot.

2. CR North

CR North is the defending champions this season and, although they didn’t look like the dominant force they did at districts in 2016, they still looked pretty darn good at Lehigh on Friday. They’ve got an awesome front 4 who could all potentially get into the top 50 individuals. That’s what Carlisle did last year and that allowed them to lock up the #2 spot at states with relative ease. Now this top 4 isn’t as good as Carlisle’s, but they could still end up scoring a pretty similar amount of points, especially if Early has a day like he did last year. Then they just need the #5 spot to deliver a solid mark. I’ll be honest, if LaSalle runs to their potential, there’s not much any team in the state can do to hang with that top 5. So Mullen (the likely #5) just needs to do what he was able to do at races like Tennent and Carlisle and set his guys up with a chance.

For the record, since I’m in a stat giving kind of mood, here’s the records of the few defending champs (not counting back to back champs) at states the year after they get the first win: 3^rd, 2^nd, 1^st, DNQ, 3^rd, 2^nd, 1^st, 2^nd. So take out a flukey North Penn year in 2011 and you have a top 3 team every time.

1. LaSalle

On paper, this is the easiest pick of any I have to make this week. LaSalle has rolled through their most recent meets, sweeping PCLs and Districts. They picked up a huge win at Carlisle over CR North and went step for step with a seemingly untouchable top 4. Evan Addison looked like a world beater on that day and Ethan Maher also clocked his best mark of the season. Since then, they had a slight hiccup at Manhattan, but they’ve also developed Bradden Koors to the point where he has a chance to be a top 50 guy. Historically, in this new three classification system, it’s taken 5 top 50-60 finishers to win a state championship. In my opinion, LaSalle is the only realistic pick to pull this off at states. They’ve been consistently strong, deep and well coached. It’s really hard to bet against them.

But if you want to, here’s some stuff to make you feel better about it. First off, they’ve got three sophomores in their projected scorers (potentially in the top 4). That’s pretty rare for a state championship level team. Usually, it’s juniors and seniors that get the job done for you with an occasional youngster involved. Also, the PCL has had great teams in the past and they still, for whatever reason, haven’t been able to pull away for the title. And it’s worth noting that I had high hopes for LaSalle last year and they slipped to 5^th. They had a solid pack, but they couldn’t back it up with front running once their top 2 guys had off days. Off days happen, especially at Hershey, so they could definitely bounce back from that, but it’s got to be mentioned.

Ultimately, this just feels like the year that the PCL breaks through. If they win, this will be for all the great PCL teams of the past who came up just short of the title. The key contributor to make this go is probably Addison as the potential #1, but also Egan as the likely #5. Egan and Maher were the swing guys at Carlisle I’d say.

I will end on this note. In 2009 (the race I compared this one to at the beginning of the post), I picked LaSalle to get the win in my pre-race predictions. They ended up 3^rd in a nail-biter, leading through 2 miles. In 2011 (the other race people have compared this one to), I picked O’Hara to win the state championship. They lost on a tiebreaker. So will this follow the same trend?

Personally, I actually think if I was going to map the teams to which team in 2009 they looked most like on paper I would go:

LaSalle 2017 – Henderson 2009

North Allegheny 2017 – North Allegheny 2009

DT West 2017 – LaSalle 2009

CR North – Carlisle 2014

Seneca Valley 2017 – Baldwin 2009

Wait-I think I messed something up there. Well regardless ... Happy States Week Everyone

2017 PIAA XC State Previews: AAA Individual Preview

AAA State Championship

You could argue the AAA boys individual championship is the most open race of the three. However, you could just as easily argue that it has the meet’s biggest favorite. Rusty Kujdych of Neshaminy is fresh off his second straight district one championship at Lehigh, capping off a legendary streak of victories over PA competition by outkicking 1:49 man Josh Hoey on the final straightaway. With the win, Kujdych became just the third D1 double champ in recent memory, joining two guys (Tony Russell and Jake Brophy) who hold four XC state championships and were both former course record holders. That’s not bad company. Kujdych also boasts one of the fastest ever Lehigh and Manhattan times for a PA athlete plus a win at Foundation against many of his most formidable opponents. If you’re into track stats, he’s also got the fastest 3200 mark in the field with his 9:04.55 from last outdoor states.

Of course, if you would like to be a contrarian, there’s an argument. For starters, Rusty was the district one champ last year, but ended up behind a couple D1 guys at states, including league rival Ryan Campbell. Part of that was likely the fast early pace set by Noah Affolder of Carlisle that few guys could hang with last season. There’s no Noah Affolder in this field (and the closest in XC ability is probably Rusty). Kudjych has also had the advantage for much of the season of racing with out of state competition. This has allowed him to be less of the focal point for pacing and have company in his races. At districts, when that advantage was a non-factor, his margin of victory was just a second. If he leaves it close against some of the speedsters in this field, Rusty could potentially be vulnerable for the upset.

In theory, the District One champion is your best bet for state champ in any given year. If we look at 2009-2015, the District One champ ended up the state champion for 5 out of those 7 years. However, from 2006 to 2008, the District One runner-up won the state championship three straight years. Maybe Russell and Brophy (who gave us 4 of those wins) weren’t the rule, they were the exception. Without those two, the District 1 champ has been 2^nd, 2^nd, 11^th, 1^st, 4^th, 6^th, and 10^th.

For Josh Hoey supporters, that could be part of the argument. Of course, if you are going to lobby that Hoey will be state champion, I think you can come up with some better numbers than those. How about the fact that Hoey is a sub 4:10 miler with 1:49 speed? That’s some crazy talent. Sure, track speed doesn’t necessarily translate to XC, but Josh has proven he can handle Hershey hills. In his first ever trip to Hershey, he ran sub 15:50 on the old Hershey layout as just a sophomore. That got him 3^rd in the state and put him tied for 12^th in the courses history. With that layout now likely retired, Hoey is the only sophomore ever to go sub 16 on that course. In that same season, Hoey led his team to nationals as the #1 runner on the Northeast Regional champs at NXN and clocked a 12:28 at Manhattan, about 4 seconds off Rusty’s time this season. Now Josh is lurking in his favorite spot, the underdog ready to pull off the upset.

Of course, there’s reasons to proceed with caution with this pick. Hoey ran those fast times as a sophomore but couldn’t duplicate them as a junior. He switched his focus to the track (which worked out pretty well given his times and championships) and became more and more of a speedster. It’s rare to see an 800 state champ even medal at states, let alone win (Zach Brehm is the only AAA guy with 800 gold and XC hardware in the last decade). A flat, fast course like Lehigh may have been his best shot to beat Rusty and he couldn’t pull it off at either Paul Short or Districts. All that being said, if Hoey can stay in it until the finish, his kick could get him a state title in XC.

A few other district one runners will be looking to do what only Conner Quinn has done in the past decade plus: win a state championship after placing outside the top two at Lehigh. Spencer Smucker of Henderson is a three time state medalist who has proven himself on the Hershey hills. He’s still trying to break into the top 10 for the first time. After a slightly disappointing day at districts, he will have something to prove at states. This will be his first time racing here without a full team alongside him. Meanwhile, Ryan Campbell of CR North finished 7^th at states last year and has a knack for this course. His 15:29 time from Lehigh was faster than in 2016 despite arguably worse conditions. North will need a big day from their leader as they try and repeat as state champions. Or how about Owen J Roberts senior Liam Conway? OJR has been the darlings of the district, rising through the ranks to take a surprising third at the championships last week. Conway has been their fearless leader every step of the way, but has yet to leave Hershey with a medal despite already tallying three trips. This is his first time there with a full squad which should give him extra incentive. Plus, Conway too has a memorable kick that could be utilized in a slow race. Look no further than his results last winter and spring in the 1600.

But none of these district one kids are the top returners from last year’s state championship. That honor belongs to Butler’s Noah Beveridge. The senior was 5^th last year in a brilliantly timed peak. He had yet to be the top runner in the WPIAL before that race, but he rolled through the state field with the lights brightest. He did a similar thing during the track season, never breaking 9:20 until he smoked a sub 9:10 mark at states in the 3200. The kid clearly has a clutch gene. In 2017, he hasn’t been able to stay under the radar the same way he did in 2016, but that hasn’t mattered. He’s been dominant in basically every race he’s finished and the Syracuse commit is looking to follow in the footsteps of current Syracuse stand out Noah Affolder by winning a PA gold before shipping up to New York.

Beveridge hasn’t traveled much this fall, meaning he has yet to match up against most of the top names outside his district. That could give him an advantage or a disadvantage on race day. Ultimately, I think it’s probably a wash. The top guys will likely mix it up at the front and not let anyone get too far away in the early or middle stages of the race. I’m confident these guys know how to race. But you never know, sometimes a little familiarity helps. What may be the biggest x-factor for Beveridge is the team component. He's leading a Butler team that authentically believes they can leave Hershey with a state gold. A 1 next Beveridge’s name in the team standings would certainly help toward that cause. For the record, the #1 runner in team standings was a part of the state champion squad 5 times in the past 11 seasons.

District 3, District 12 and even District 2 also have individuals who need to be considered in the state championship discussion. Morgan Cupp of Mechanicsburg was second at the Carlisle Invitational in one of the fastest times we’ve seen on the course. Since then, he’s rolled through strong fields at Mid Penns and Districts. Cupp is the #5 returner from last season and looking to keep the district 3 momentum going after the mid-staters took the top 4 spots overall in Hershey last year. Evan Addison defeated Cupp as well as top D1 guys like Campbell, Koza and Smucker at that Carlisle invite. That was his best race of the season by far and shows us what his potential is if everything clicks in Hershey. Similar to Beveridge and Campbell, Addison has a big incentive to post a top individual mark for team title favorites LaSalle. Junior Tyler Wirth is the biggest wildcard of this crop of district champions. Wirth has clocked some big time runs during his rookie season, including top finishes at PTXC, Paul Short and Tennent. He’s a huge talent that’s just starting to scratch the surface of what he can be as an XC runner. Don’t underestimate him just because he’s from a small district.

One of the other key storylines in states will be the results from this talented sophomore class. We could be looking at 5 sophomore state medalists, including multiple guys in the top 10, if things all break right. Since 2006, we haven’t had more 7 Top 50 sophomores. It’s possible LaSalle could have 3 be themselves. We haven’t had more than 3 sophomore state medalists since 2008. We might have three in the top 15 this year. On the flip side, I want to see what juniors step up. The last time we had less than 10 juniors in the top 50 was also 2008 and we’ve averaged near 15 per year over the past 11 seasons. Let’s see if the crop of talented sophomores puts any pressure on the juniors.

Now let’s talk sleepers. I like Colin Cramer of Southern Lehigh as a medal threat, but also think his District 11 rival Riley Williamson could have a big day for Parkland. Ben Hoyer had a huge day at Foundation the last time he was in Hershey. That could mean he’s a sleeper pick for a top 20 finish. Don’t forget about the Allderdice boys. They have two serious medal threats in Tavonne Davis and Ethan Hermann. David Merkey ran the Hershey course like a boss last year. He’s one of the top 20 or so returners in the state this year and a real sleeper from Manheim Central. I think Josh Lewin of WC East could have a bounce back race at states as well. He’s another one of the dangerous sophomores in this field.

1	1	Noah Beveridge	Sr	Butler
2		Rusty Kujdych	Sr	Neshaminy
3	2	Josh Hoey	Sr	Bishop Shanahan
4	3	Ryan Campbell	Sr	CR North
5	4	Morgan Cupp	Sr	Mechanicsburg
6		Spencer Smucker	Sr	Henderson
7	5	Tyler Wirth	Jr	Wallenpaupack
8		Carlos Shultz	So	Phoenixville
9	6	Dan McGoey	So	North Allegheny
10	7	Sam Owori	Jr	Seneca Valley
11	8	Liam Conway	Sr	Owen J Roberts
12	9	Mitchell Etter	Sr	State College
13	10	Ethan Koza	Sr	CR North
14	11	Seth Ketler	Jr	Seneca Valley
15	12	Jack Wisner	Jr	Carlisle
16	13	Evan Addison	Sr	LaSalle
17		Avery Lederer	Sr	Penncrest
18	14	Brandan Knepper	Jr	Mechanicsburg
19		Brendan O'Toole	Sr	North Penn
20		Colin Cramer	Sr	Southern Lehigh
21	15	Vincent Twomey	So	LaSalle
22	16	Brett Brady	Sr	Butler
23	17	Payton Sewall	Jr	DT West
24	18	Owen Isham	Jr	State College
25	19	Tavonne Davis	Sr	Allderdice
26		Jake Underwood	Sr	Wilson
27		Patrick Anderson	So	Mount Lebanon
28	20	Ethan Hermann	Sr	Allderdice
29	21	Tyler Rollins	Sr	DT West
30		Ben Hoyer	Sr	Wissahickon
31		Czar Tarr	Sr	Chartiers Valley
32		Michael Samson	Sr	CB West
33	22	Sam Early	Sr	CR North
34		Jason Cornelison	Jr	Cheltenham
35		Andrew Foster	Jr	Ephrata
36	23	Jacob McKenna	Sr	Spring Ford
37	24	Riley Williamson	Jr	Parkland
38	25	Christian Groff	Sr	Hempfield
39		Chayce Macknair	Jr	Mifflin County
40		Kyle Burke	Sr	Abington Heights
41		Alex Ermold	Jr	Governor Mifflin
42		Christian Fitch	So	Fox Chapel
43		Evan Kreider	Jr	Cocalico
44		David Merkey	Sr	Manheim Central
45	26	Andrew Malmstrom	Sr	Owen J Roberts
46	27	Connor Volk-Klas	Jr	Seneca Valley
47		Ian Miller	Jr	Manheim Township
48		Zack Forney	Sr	Ridley
49	28	Dylan Servis	Jr	Twin Valley
50		Josh Lewin	So	WC East