2017 PIAA XC State Previews: AAA Individual Preview

AAA State Championship

You could argue the AAA boys individual championship is the most open race of the three. However, you could just as easily argue that it has the meet’s biggest favorite. Rusty Kujdych of Neshaminy is fresh off his second straight district one championship at Lehigh, capping off a legendary streak of victories over PA competition by outkicking 1:49 man Josh Hoey on the final straightaway. With the win, Kujdych became just the third D1 double champ in recent memory, joining two guys (Tony Russell and Jake Brophy) who hold four XC state championships and were both former course record holders. That’s not bad company. Kujdych also boasts one of the fastest ever Lehigh and Manhattan times for a PA athlete plus a win at Foundation against many of his most formidable opponents. If you’re into track stats, he’s also got the fastest 3200 mark in the field with his 9:04.55 from last outdoor states.

Of course, if you would like to be a contrarian, there’s an argument. For starters, Rusty was the district one champ last year, but ended up behind a couple D1 guys at states, including league rival Ryan Campbell. Part of that was likely the fast early pace set by Noah Affolder of Carlisle that few guys could hang with last season. There’s no Noah Affolder in this field (and the closest in XC ability is probably Rusty). Kudjych has also had the advantage for much of the season of racing with out of state competition. This has allowed him to be less of the focal point for pacing and have company in his races. At districts, when that advantage was a non-factor, his margin of victory was just a second. If he leaves it close against some of the speedsters in this field, Rusty could potentially be vulnerable for the upset.

In theory, the District One champion is your best bet for state champ in any given year. If we look at 2009-2015, the District One champ ended up the state champion for 5 out of those 7 years. However, from 2006 to 2008, the District One runner-up won the state championship three straight years. Maybe Russell and Brophy (who gave us 4 of those wins) weren’t the rule, they were the exception. Without those two, the District 1 champ has been 2^nd, 2^nd, 11^th, 1^st, 4^th, 6^th, and 10^th.

For Josh Hoey supporters, that could be part of the argument. Of course, if you are going to lobby that Hoey will be state champion, I think you can come up with some better numbers than those. How about the fact that Hoey is a sub 4:10 miler with 1:49 speed? That’s some crazy talent. Sure, track speed doesn’t necessarily translate to XC, but Josh has proven he can handle Hershey hills. In his first ever trip to Hershey, he ran sub 15:50 on the old Hershey layout as just a sophomore. That got him 3^rd in the state and put him tied for 12^th in the courses history. With that layout now likely retired, Hoey is the only sophomore ever to go sub 16 on that course. In that same season, Hoey led his team to nationals as the #1 runner on the Northeast Regional champs at NXN and clocked a 12:28 at Manhattan, about 4 seconds off Rusty’s time this season. Now Josh is lurking in his favorite spot, the underdog ready to pull off the upset.

Of course, there’s reasons to proceed with caution with this pick. Hoey ran those fast times as a sophomore but couldn’t duplicate them as a junior. He switched his focus to the track (which worked out pretty well given his times and championships) and became more and more of a speedster. It’s rare to see an 800 state champ even medal at states, let alone win (Zach Brehm is the only AAA guy with 800 gold and XC hardware in the last decade). A flat, fast course like Lehigh may have been his best shot to beat Rusty and he couldn’t pull it off at either Paul Short or Districts. All that being said, if Hoey can stay in it until the finish, his kick could get him a state title in XC.

A few other district one runners will be looking to do what only Conner Quinn has done in the past decade plus: win a state championship after placing outside the top two at Lehigh. Spencer Smucker of Henderson is a three time state medalist who has proven himself on the Hershey hills. He’s still trying to break into the top 10 for the first time. After a slightly disappointing day at districts, he will have something to prove at states. This will be his first time racing here without a full team alongside him. Meanwhile, Ryan Campbell of CR North finished 7^th at states last year and has a knack for this course. His 15:29 time from Lehigh was faster than in 2016 despite arguably worse conditions. North will need a big day from their leader as they try and repeat as state champions. Or how about Owen J Roberts senior Liam Conway? OJR has been the darlings of the district, rising through the ranks to take a surprising third at the championships last week. Conway has been their fearless leader every step of the way, but has yet to leave Hershey with a medal despite already tallying three trips. This is his first time there with a full squad which should give him extra incentive. Plus, Conway too has a memorable kick that could be utilized in a slow race. Look no further than his results last winter and spring in the 1600.

But none of these district one kids are the top returners from last year’s state championship. That honor belongs to Butler’s Noah Beveridge. The senior was 5^th last year in a brilliantly timed peak. He had yet to be the top runner in the WPIAL before that race, but he rolled through the state field with the lights brightest. He did a similar thing during the track season, never breaking 9:20 until he smoked a sub 9:10 mark at states in the 3200. The kid clearly has a clutch gene. In 2017, he hasn’t been able to stay under the radar the same way he did in 2016, but that hasn’t mattered. He’s been dominant in basically every race he’s finished and the Syracuse commit is looking to follow in the footsteps of current Syracuse stand out Noah Affolder by winning a PA gold before shipping up to New York.

Beveridge hasn’t traveled much this fall, meaning he has yet to match up against most of the top names outside his district. That could give him an advantage or a disadvantage on race day. Ultimately, I think it’s probably a wash. The top guys will likely mix it up at the front and not let anyone get too far away in the early or middle stages of the race. I’m confident these guys know how to race. But you never know, sometimes a little familiarity helps. What may be the biggest x-factor for Beveridge is the team component. He's leading a Butler team that authentically believes they can leave Hershey with a state gold. A 1 next Beveridge’s name in the team standings would certainly help toward that cause. For the record, the #1 runner in team standings was a part of the state champion squad 5 times in the past 11 seasons.

District 3, District 12 and even District 2 also have individuals who need to be considered in the state championship discussion. Morgan Cupp of Mechanicsburg was second at the Carlisle Invitational in one of the fastest times we’ve seen on the course. Since then, he’s rolled through strong fields at Mid Penns and Districts. Cupp is the #5 returner from last season and looking to keep the district 3 momentum going after the mid-staters took the top 4 spots overall in Hershey last year. Evan Addison defeated Cupp as well as top D1 guys like Campbell, Koza and Smucker at that Carlisle invite. That was his best race of the season by far and shows us what his potential is if everything clicks in Hershey. Similar to Beveridge and Campbell, Addison has a big incentive to post a top individual mark for team title favorites LaSalle. Junior Tyler Wirth is the biggest wildcard of this crop of district champions. Wirth has clocked some big time runs during his rookie season, including top finishes at PTXC, Paul Short and Tennent. He’s a huge talent that’s just starting to scratch the surface of what he can be as an XC runner. Don’t underestimate him just because he’s from a small district.

One of the other key storylines in states will be the results from this talented sophomore class. We could be looking at 5 sophomore state medalists, including multiple guys in the top 10, if things all break right. Since 2006, we haven’t had more 7 Top 50 sophomores. It’s possible LaSalle could have 3 be themselves. We haven’t had more than 3 sophomore state medalists since 2008. We might have three in the top 15 this year. On the flip side, I want to see what juniors step up. The last time we had less than 10 juniors in the top 50 was also 2008 and we’ve averaged near 15 per year over the past 11 seasons. Let’s see if the crop of talented sophomores puts any pressure on the juniors.

Now let’s talk sleepers. I like Colin Cramer of Southern Lehigh as a medal threat, but also think his District 11 rival Riley Williamson could have a big day for Parkland. Ben Hoyer had a huge day at Foundation the last time he was in Hershey. That could mean he’s a sleeper pick for a top 20 finish. Don’t forget about the Allderdice boys. They have two serious medal threats in Tavonne Davis and Ethan Hermann. David Merkey ran the Hershey course like a boss last year. He’s one of the top 20 or so returners in the state this year and a real sleeper from Manheim Central. I think Josh Lewin of WC East could have a bounce back race at states as well. He’s another one of the dangerous sophomores in this field.

1	1	Noah Beveridge	Sr	Butler
2		Rusty Kujdych	Sr	Neshaminy
3	2	Josh Hoey	Sr	Bishop Shanahan
4	3	Ryan Campbell	Sr	CR North
5	4	Morgan Cupp	Sr	Mechanicsburg
6		Spencer Smucker	Sr	Henderson
7	5	Tyler Wirth	Jr	Wallenpaupack
8		Carlos Shultz	So	Phoenixville
9	6	Dan McGoey	So	North Allegheny
10	7	Sam Owori	Jr	Seneca Valley
11	8	Liam Conway	Sr	Owen J Roberts
12	9	Mitchell Etter	Sr	State College
13	10	Ethan Koza	Sr	CR North
14	11	Seth Ketler	Jr	Seneca Valley
15	12	Jack Wisner	Jr	Carlisle
16	13	Evan Addison	Sr	LaSalle
17		Avery Lederer	Sr	Penncrest
18	14	Brandan Knepper	Jr	Mechanicsburg
19		Brendan O'Toole	Sr	North Penn
20		Colin Cramer	Sr	Southern Lehigh
21	15	Vincent Twomey	So	LaSalle
22	16	Brett Brady	Sr	Butler
23	17	Payton Sewall	Jr	DT West
24	18	Owen Isham	Jr	State College
25	19	Tavonne Davis	Sr	Allderdice
26		Jake Underwood	Sr	Wilson
27		Patrick Anderson	So	Mount Lebanon
28	20	Ethan Hermann	Sr	Allderdice
29	21	Tyler Rollins	Sr	DT West
30		Ben Hoyer	Sr	Wissahickon
31		Czar Tarr	Sr	Chartiers Valley
32		Michael Samson	Sr	CB West
33	22	Sam Early	Sr	CR North
34		Jason Cornelison	Jr	Cheltenham
35		Andrew Foster	Jr	Ephrata
36	23	Jacob McKenna	Sr	Spring Ford
37	24	Riley Williamson	Jr	Parkland
38	25	Christian Groff	Sr	Hempfield
39		Chayce Macknair	Jr	Mifflin County
40		Kyle Burke	Sr	Abington Heights
41		Alex Ermold	Jr	Governor Mifflin
42		Christian Fitch	So	Fox Chapel
43		Evan Kreider	Jr	Cocalico
44		David Merkey	Sr	Manheim Central
45	26	Andrew Malmstrom	Sr	Owen J Roberts
46	27	Connor Volk-Klas	Jr	Seneca Valley
47		Ian Miller	Jr	Manheim Township
48		Zack Forney	Sr	Ridley
49	28	Dylan Servis	Jr	Twin Valley
50		Josh Lewin	So	WC East