2017 PIAA XC State Previews: AAA Team Preview

Here were are. The final preview post to be posted. By all accounts, this is the most wide open team battle we’ve had in a long time. 2014 was an interesting discussion although I feel like North Allegheny put the clamps on the title in the late stages of the season. In 2012, O’Hara was the favorite, but Henderson was definitely in the discussion. Regardless, the championship was only realistically in play for two teams. The fabled 2011 season has been discussed a lot as it relates to this year. There’s some similarities certainly between top teams (2011 O’Hara-2017 CR North comes to mind) and maybe a “random” team will win states like North Penn did that season in one of the biggest jaw droppers in meet history.

Personally, I don’t jump to 2011, but rather 2009. I’m not expecting a random team to jump from third at districts to first at states (sorry OJR), but I do think it’s a real toss-up between a tight group of strong teams. 2009 was a really interesting battle between 5 teams: LaSalle, Altoona, North Allegheny, Henderson and Baldwin. Those squads combined to take 22 of the top 40 team scorers and were tightly bunched throughout the race. Henderson actually went from 4^th at the 2-mile to 1^st at the finish. I’m hoping for an exciting race like that between our top teams in 2017.

A couple other things, then I promise I’ll move on to actually talking about specific teams and not historical trends. Since the move to three classifications in 2012, the 5 teams from District One that have qualified for states have placed in the top 10 overall every single year. You can right it in pen. Of course, I’m not going to put all five teams from D1 in my top 10 and you can bet I’ll be wrong. District One has also had at least two top 5 teams each year.

North Allegheny and CR North have placed in the top 10 each of the past five seasons so expect them to be back. At least one PCL team has been in the top 5 each season. At least one WPIAL team has been in the top 5. The WPIAL has two top 10 teams 3 out of 5 years, but never had all 3 team qualifiers in the top 10 or 2 team qualifiers in the top 5. District 3 has had 5 top 10 teams in 5 years. Of those squads, 4 were either Carlisle or Cumberland Valley (the other one being a 10^th place finish by Lower Dauphin 2012). Easton is the only team from District 2, 4, 10 or 11 to break into the top 10 in the last 5 seasons. State College has represented D6 with 3 top 10 finishes.

And, oh by the way, the AAA team titles have gone to either a district one champion or North Allegheny every year since before some of the people competing in this year’s race were even alive (OK, that’s an overexaggeration, but November 2004 is 13 years ago now!). So keep all that history junk in mind as I jump into my predictions.

Lastly, my apologies to the teams I left out of my top 10. If you’d like to hear my analysis for those schools, hit me up in the comment section.

10. State College

The Little Lions have emerged as an XC power. Last year, I counted them out of my top tier pretty quickly and paid the price for it. They ended up 7^th overall and had multiple top 50 finishers. This year’s team may actually have better front running as I’m projecting two state medalists for State College. I think they’ve got a solid #3 so the spotlight will really be on the 4-5. Now the Lions have secret weapon likely coming over from the JV race in sophomore Ben St. Pierre and I think guys like Messner and Horn will have a little extra spark on race day when it’s states and not districts. I think D6 champs doesn’t inspire the same urgency as D1 would.

9. Carlisle

As I mentioned up top, Carlisle has two top 10 finishes in the past 5 years. Just a year ago they were second at states. Meanwhile, most of their closest competitors have struggled to transition from districts to states. I’d wager the Herd will be the best team in terms of transitioning from Big Spring to Hershey and, therefore, I’ve reserved a spot for them in the top 5. At districts, Carlisle looked solid, showing some nice potential at #1 and #5, but their middle three guys left me looking for a little bit more. Based on what I saw midseason at the Carlisle Invite, those guys could all have big days at Hershey. If one of them (maybe Drew Barefield) can sneak into the top 50-60 places, I think this team is in a really good spot. Plus, Jack Wisner is one of my individual sleeper picks. Don’t be surprised if Wisner ends up the top junior in the state this weekend.

8. Owen J Roberts

I’m obviously not allowed to have favorites as an allegedly impartial blogger, but have you seen my spelling and grammar? I’m not exactly a professional. I’m rooting for Owen J Roberts to win the whole thing this weekend for a variety of reasons. First of all, it would fit well with the theory, “When it’s a crazy year, the 3^rd place team from D1 wins it all” (happened in 2011 and 2005) because how could that not be a fun statistical anomaly to get more data in support of. Second of all, how crazy would it be if Owen J Roberts won states? They have barely even had state qualifiers this decade and I believe their last state medalist in XC came back in 2006. Plus, once upon a time, I met some fans of the blog from OJR who seemed pretty chill. Do kids still say chill?

Regardless, if we are looking at this critically, there are some things in OJRs favor. For starters, their program has consistently improved from week to week. They are trending upwards while a lot of other teams have been relatively stagnant. It seems like there’s a positive culture here to go with the talent. They’ve got a solid front runner in Conway who should get on the medal stand. Andrew Malmstrom is suddenly a medal contender after his district race and looks like he has big upside. They’ve had a deep team all season that goes through to the JV squad. Realistically, I think they’ve got an outside shot at a top 5 finish if they continue to click. I think it will come down to who steps up at #5. Last time I called on somebody to step up at #2 and they delivered so now let’s see what the #5 spot has to offer.

7. Spring Ford

Personally, I think Spring Ford had a ton of pressure on them at districts. Yes, they were favorites to make it to states, but it was no guarantee and if I was one of their top 5 guys I’d be having nightmares about another #6 finish. So with the monkey finally off their back, I think they will be able to simply relax and have fun at Hershey. That makes these guys really dangerous. On the right day, their pack can run with anyone. Jacob McKenna has shown the ability to be a state medalist. If Zach Smith and Shane Ainscoe deliver big days, I think this team is going to be top 5 in the state and possibly knocking on the door of top 3. The Rams remind me most of the 2014 DT West team that snuck through to states and then finished 4^th overall there.

6. North Allegheny

The Tigers have been overshadowed in a loaded WPIAL this year, but let’s give this squad credit. They pieced together a strong pack and, after looking like long shots to make it to states, are lining up again at Hershey. Considering this team was able to outlast Mount Lebanon, a consensus top 5 team in the state all season, they should get some buzz. Couple that with the fact the Tigers have been top 6 in the state every year since 2005 and I think we’ve got a sleeping giant on our hands. They have the front runner they desperately needed last season in Dan McGoey and, although they don’t have that absurdly tight spread this year, they do have a solid pack of contributors. Phillips made a nice jump last week so now maybe it’s Turkovich’s turn for a big day or Nalepa or James. They don’t need much to break right in order to pass Butler or even maybe Seneca Valley in the final standings.

5. Butler

The Golden Tornadoes, or as I like to call them, the Bull Dogs, are fresh off a huge 2^nd place finish at the WPIAL championships. Butler was just a few ticks of the clock away from knocking off Seneca Valley who, as of the writing of this post, is Penntrack’s #1 ranked team in the state. So why not Butler for state champion? They’ve got an individual low stick in Beveridge. They’ve got Brett Brady, who ran an excellent race last year at states, to lead at #2. Aden Dressler is a little bit more race seasoned after WPIALs and could be more of a factor in Hershey. And if Robbie Hays can get to the line on both feet, there’s a couple more points right there. If things go right through 4 runners, they will be competitive with every other team in the field. Then the spotlight turns to projected #5 runner Camden Seybert. The senior was only 11 seconds back of Seneca Valley’s #5. SV may end up with the best #5 in the whole meet, so that’s not a bad place to be. Also don’t forget about freshman Skyler Vavro. If he has done enough to earn a spot on the varsity squad, he becomes an interesting wildcard in the state championship picture.

4. Seneca Valley

I’ve been a big fan of this program for a while now and have been super impressed by how they have coached up this team. They are a lot of people’s state title picks and I think that’s for good reason. They’ve got two almost sure file medalists in Seth Ketler and Sam Owori. Connor Volk-Klas is one of my sleepers on race day. I think he will sneak into the top 50, but if he can jump into the top 30 or even get on the medal stand, this team becomes scary. They should, at the very least, make the podium with that kind of top 3. But lots of teams are solid out front. If Seneca Valley wants to really get the edge, they need to put together a strong pack at the 4-5. I think Alex Dixon will likely swing the championship hopes for SV when all is said and done. A big day from him and the golds could be heading to the WPIAL.

3. DT West

Before I get into the weeds, here is how District 1 Champions have done at states over the past 5 seasons: 1^st, 1^st, 2^nd, 1^st, 1^st. Pretty good right? What about the 5 years before that? 5^th, 2^nd, 1^st, 1^st, 1^st. Still looks pretty good. In fact, in a decade’s worth of District 1 championship results, the champion has never lost to the runner-up at the state championship. So I’m very unconfidently going against history on this one.

If DT West even cracks the top 4 this weekend, they will join a pretty elite club. The Whippets (by the way, when this is all over, someone will need to explain to me what a Whippet is and they better not mention Devo) were 4^th in 2014, 1^st in 2015 and 3^rd in 2016. While I’ve been remotely following this sport, the best 4 year runs are: Henderson 2^nd-5^th-1^st-1^st, North Allegheny 3^rd-3^rd-2^nd-1^st & 4^th-2^nd-1^st-2^nd and O’Hara 2^nd-2^nd-3^rd-3^rd. Those are the big three so West has a chance to get in some pretty elite company.

Of course, championships are not won based on what you did in the past. Fortunately for the Whippets (but seriously, what is a Whippet), they’ve got a ton of talent right now. Peyton Sewall and Tyler Rollins could both finish in the medals. Evan Kaiser is quickly gaining steam. Isaac is good too, I just can’t spell his last name so he ends up left out of a lot of my work. They are the deepest through seven in the state (I think, LaSalle has a good case) and they are clicking at the right time. They just won against the toughest district in the state after rolling through perhaps the toughest conference.

What worries me about West is their ability to front run. I see a lot of guys on teams that qualified mixing it up for medals. They have to have at least one guy in the medals or they risk ending up like LaSalle from that 2009 race I talked about at the top of the post (you probably haven’t read all of this post in one sitting because it is so long, so scroll back up and revisit it if you’d like). Wallenpaupack, Parkland, Mechanicsburg, Shanahan, and Allderdice are all teams that (no offense) probably won’t be competing for a top 5 spot at states. However, they all have a guy or two that could get in front of West’s top guy and push up their score. For most teams, I’ll be watching the #4 and #5 guys, and that will certainly be important for DT West, but these guys also need a big day from the #1 spot.

2. CR North

CR North is the defending champions this season and, although they didn’t look like the dominant force they did at districts in 2016, they still looked pretty darn good at Lehigh on Friday. They’ve got an awesome front 4 who could all potentially get into the top 50 individuals. That’s what Carlisle did last year and that allowed them to lock up the #2 spot at states with relative ease. Now this top 4 isn’t as good as Carlisle’s, but they could still end up scoring a pretty similar amount of points, especially if Early has a day like he did last year. Then they just need the #5 spot to deliver a solid mark. I’ll be honest, if LaSalle runs to their potential, there’s not much any team in the state can do to hang with that top 5. So Mullen (the likely #5) just needs to do what he was able to do at races like Tennent and Carlisle and set his guys up with a chance.

For the record, since I’m in a stat giving kind of mood, here’s the records of the few defending champs (not counting back to back champs) at states the year after they get the first win: 3^rd, 2^nd, 1^st, DNQ, 3^rd, 2^nd, 1^st, 2^nd. So take out a flukey North Penn year in 2011 and you have a top 3 team every time.

1. LaSalle

On paper, this is the easiest pick of any I have to make this week. LaSalle has rolled through their most recent meets, sweeping PCLs and Districts. They picked up a huge win at Carlisle over CR North and went step for step with a seemingly untouchable top 4. Evan Addison looked like a world beater on that day and Ethan Maher also clocked his best mark of the season. Since then, they had a slight hiccup at Manhattan, but they’ve also developed Bradden Koors to the point where he has a chance to be a top 50 guy. Historically, in this new three classification system, it’s taken 5 top 50-60 finishers to win a state championship. In my opinion, LaSalle is the only realistic pick to pull this off at states. They’ve been consistently strong, deep and well coached. It’s really hard to bet against them.

But if you want to, here’s some stuff to make you feel better about it. First off, they’ve got three sophomores in their projected scorers (potentially in the top 4). That’s pretty rare for a state championship level team. Usually, it’s juniors and seniors that get the job done for you with an occasional youngster involved. Also, the PCL has had great teams in the past and they still, for whatever reason, haven’t been able to pull away for the title. And it’s worth noting that I had high hopes for LaSalle last year and they slipped to 5^th. They had a solid pack, but they couldn’t back it up with front running once their top 2 guys had off days. Off days happen, especially at Hershey, so they could definitely bounce back from that, but it’s got to be mentioned.

Ultimately, this just feels like the year that the PCL breaks through. If they win, this will be for all the great PCL teams of the past who came up just short of the title. The key contributor to make this go is probably Addison as the potential #1, but also Egan as the likely #5. Egan and Maher were the swing guys at Carlisle I’d say.

I will end on this note. In 2009 (the race I compared this one to at the beginning of the post), I picked LaSalle to get the win in my pre-race predictions. They ended up 3^rd in a nail-biter, leading through 2 miles. In 2011 (the other race people have compared this one to), I picked O’Hara to win the state championship. They lost on a tiebreaker. So will this follow the same trend?

Personally, I actually think if I was going to map the teams to which team in 2009 they looked most like on paper I would go:

LaSalle 2017 – Henderson 2009

North Allegheny 2017 – North Allegheny 2009

DT West 2017 – LaSalle 2009

CR North – Carlisle 2014

Seneca Valley 2017 – Baldwin 2009

Wait-I think I messed something up there. Well regardless ... Happy States Week Everyone