2017 PIAA XC State Championship Preview: "A" Individual Preview

A State Championship

Tristan Forsythe is no stranger to the Hershey hills. He’s won the past two Foundation Invitationals and was leading the 2016 state championship through over 2 miles a year ago. But ultimately Forsythe was outlasted by a couple district 10 seniors with speed and he had to settle for the bronze. Now, as he enters the 2017 meet, he will look to get his vengeance.

The Winchester Thurston senior has rolled through his last PA XC season, winning without much trouble at each of his major PA events: Red, White and Blue, Foundation and WPIALs. As mentioned, he’s the top returner from 2016 and he was the top sophomore at states in 2015. He clearly has championship pedigree, earning state medals in each of his last 6 state championship appearances. The most recent of which was a wire to wire state 1600 meter victory with a mark of 4:12. In my opinion, Forsythe enters the meet as a clear favorite.

However, the Georgetown commit is not invincible. Forsythe has been dealing with the occasional health issues, causing him to miss time at various moments in his high school career. We’ve already seen him miss the Coopers Invite this season. Plus, upsets happen. Few were expecting Noah Curtin of Mercyhurst Prep to surprise the field after finishing just 5^th at his district championship. So maybe we will see another wildcard seize on the adrenaline of the state championship and pull off the stunner.

To find a reasonable candidate, we might as well look back at Curtin’s old district, District 10. Lakeview’s Zac Tingley is the #3 returner from last year’s championship, placing 17^th. He had a disappointing district championship, taking 6^th in wet conditions at Buhl Park. Typically, I feel like Tingley has his best race of the year at districts so this 6^th place run may be a blessing in disguise as his best race of the year could come perfectly timed a week later. He’s an unlikely gold medalist, sure, but he’s got to be near the top of the sleeper list.

Looking for an upset pick, but think Tingley is too much of a long shot? How about Holy Cross’s sophomore sensation Andrew Healey? Healey was second at the District 2 championships, but he runs the Hershey hills well. Even as a frosh, Healey was a top 35 finisher at states (and in a medal position through 2 miles). Andrew was second at the Foundation Invitational on the Hershey course, beating out some top flight names like Jack Miller of Jenkintown (11^th last year, #2 returner) and Garrett Baublitz (District 6 AA champ). Healey’s time of 16:44 on that course would have been 7^th at last year’s championships with only Tristan Forsythe holding a better PB on this latest layout. It’s incredibly rare for a sophomore to win states, even in the smaller classifications, but it’s also been a long time since it happened (Craig Miller in 2003). Maybe that means we are due.

The aforementioned Jack Miller, a junior from Jenkintown, deserves a mention among championship contenders. The District 1 champion was also the winner at the White Race at Paul Short, clocking a 15:48. His runaway victory at Lehigh this past Friday was among the most impressive results of the week across all classifications. Other district champions who grabbed headlines include Josh Lewis (District 10) and Brandon Curley (District 2). Both have something to prove at states as neither have a state medal. Lewis has been phenomenal in the western part of the state, rolling through one of the best districts A has to offer. Curley, a senior from one of the team contenders in Montrose, won his District championships in a mark faster than perennial XC Top 50 runner Jack Zardecki and comparable to Wallenpaupack’s superstar Tyler Wirth. That’s good company for Curley, who also dropped the fastest A time of the meet at McQuaid with a 15:27 over 3 miles. But the question for Curley centers more around his prowess on the Hershey course. He really struggled on these hills a year ago, finishing outside the top 50. He (and his team) have something to prove this time around, but sometimes you just run into a course that has your number.

Of course if we are going to discuss runners who need to prove themselves on the Hershey hills the conversation likely starts and ends with Brenden Miller of Upper Dauphin. As loaded as this individual field, Miller may be the most talented of them all. He won the district 3 championship by a full minute. He also clocked a 15:40 at Carlisle, mixing it up with the big names from AAA in the Challenge field. Last spring, Miller dropped a fantastic 3200 to take 3^rd at states behind only Ben Bumgarner and Zach Skolnekovich (the AA state champ and a Footlocker finalist last XC season). The kid has crazy potential, but can he overcome the Hershey hills? A year ago, in his first major appearance at Hershey, Miller put himself in a strong position early. He was 5^th at the mile and 10^th at the 2-mile. However, he faded hard on the final loop and ended up just 139^th. To me, that seemed like more of a fluke than anything to be legitimately concerned with, but he’s facing guys with a proven track record on this course like Forsythe and Jack Miller. Plus, Brendan doesn’t have the team advantage that many of his rivals boast. He trains by himself rather than in a pack full of guys who can help push him toward his limits.

I’d say if anyone is going to knock of Tristan it’s going to be Miller. I left that purposely open ended considering there are a couple Millers with enough talent to make things interesting.

The fight for the remaining spots in the top 10 and even the top 25 should be tight. Expect multiple District 9 runners to break into the medals. Ben Hoffma, another super soph, was their district champ but the Smethport duo of Gregory and Tanner are seasoned and confident. Tanner is coming on at the right time while Gregory is having his best season to date. I like Noah Bernarding of Cochranton. He’s a sleeper for a top 3 finish, having finished as the #1 freshman in this talented class last year. Dan Bici of Masterman could factor into the medal equation as well. Masterman has a knack for producing standout performances at states. They are a sleeper team led by a sleeper individual in Bici.

For those of you who like team battles, the back half of the state medal conversation will likely decide who wins the state championship. Penns Valley has two freshmen will serious medal upside in Colton Sands and Brendan Colwell (along with Chris Colwell, a medalist last year). Winchester Thurston is hoping Gordon Pollock and Scott Routledge can get on the medal stand alongside Forsythe. Isaac Wortman of Elk county Catholic, Josh Jackson of Jenkintown and Liam Mead of Montrose are also strong runners that could really lift their teams with a top 20 finish.

Place	Team Place	Name	Class	Team
1	1	Tristan Forsythe	Sr	Winchester Thurston
2	2	Jack Miller	Jr	Jenkintown
3		Brenden Miller	Sr	Upper Dauphin
4		Andrew Healey	So	Holy Cross
5	3	Ben Barnes	Sr	Riverview
6		Andrew Stanley	Sr	Southern Huntington
7	4	Ben Hoffman	Sr	Elk County Catholic
8		Zac Tingley	Sr	Lakeview
9	5	Noah Bernarding	So	Cochranton
10		Josh Lewis	Jr	North East
11	6	Brandon Curley	Sr	Montrose
12	7	Chris Colwell	Sr	Penns Valley
13		Chris Kocent	Sr	OLSH
14	8	Gordon Pollock	Sr	Winchester Thurston
15	9	Dan Bici	Sr	Masterman
16	10	Josh Jackson	Sr	Jenkintown
17		Darion Gregory	Jr	Smethport
18	11	Colton Sands	Fr	Penns Valley
19		Adam Hessler	So	Freedom
20		Lukas Dunaway	Jr	Serra Catholic
21	12	Hunter Armstrong	So	Marion Center
22	13	Liam Mead	Jr	Montrose
23	14	Isaac Wortman	So	Elk County Catholic
24		Ethan Knoebel	Jr	Southern Columbia
25		Christian Tanner	Jr	Smethport
26	15	Brendan Colwell	Fr	Penns Valley
27	16	Michael Komanik		Riverview
28		Peyton Jones	Jr	Elk Lake
29		Luke Mantzell	So	West Middlesex
30		Carter Kauffman	So	St Joesphs
31		Alex Rosenberry	Jr	West Shore
32		Aidan Perry	Jr	Wellsboro
33		Jake Martinez	Jr	Palmerton
34	17	Scott Routledge	So	Winchester Thurston
35		Troy Hart	So	Reynolds
36		Jesse Sands	Sr	Maplewood
37	18	Sam Gray	Sr	Penns Valley
38		Tristan Amell	So	Coudersport
39	19	Brock Smith	So	Seneca
40		Adler Brininger	So	Delone Catholic
41		Wayne Reilly	Jr	Tri-Valley
42	20	Nathaniel Lerch	So	Clarion
43		Cody Oswald	Sr	Elk Lake
44		Zak Smith	Jr	NE Bradford
45	21	Luke Miller	Fr	Jenkintown
46	22	Logan Hoffman	Sr	Elk County Catholic
47		Micah Kurka	Sr	Purchase Line
48	23	Mark Bierly	Sr	Penns Valley
49	24	Jac Cokley	Jr	Cochranton
50		Alex Ringler	Sr	United