Not trying to start a big war here, but clearly the numbers show that District One is the best district in track and field. It should be, it has the most people to chose from and provides excellent competition year round among great teams. However, what I find intriguing is that this Philly Area (including the PCL in this group for both indoors and outdoors) dominance is greater indoors than outdoors when I look through previous years results indoors.
Looking at past years results, it's clear that if you live in the Philly Area you have a big time advantage when it comes to indoor track. I did a simple comparison on the distance side over the past 5 years between the indoor results at states and the outdoor AAA results to make sure that my suspicions were accurate and the numbers back up my claim.
The study is probably flawed in favor of showing that this trend does not hold, and it still does. Why? We are only looking at AAA results and completely excluding outdoor AA results. But indoors, since everyone runs together, we include these AA runners in the study. The top AA runners are, for the most part, outside of the TFCAofGP. Thus, they will decrease the number of TFCAofGP runners taking top spots indoors, but not outdoors. Guys like Brendan Shearn for example fit this bill. Just keep that in mind going forward.
So here we go, what do the numbers show?
In 2013 by itself, the TFCAofGP had the champion in every single distance event indoors, including the DMR and 4x8. 14 of the 16 medalists from the relays were from this Philly area association, while outdoors just 50% of the medalists in the 4x8 came from this league. In addition, just 41.6% of the 12 finalists in the 4x8 outdoors in AAA were from the TFCAofGP.
In total over the last 5 years, in the individual events 58.33% of the medalists have come from the TFCAofGP compared to just 48.33% outdoors. 10 of the 15 individual state champions have come from the greater philly area indoors in the past 5 years, while, perhaps surprisingly, 12 of the 15 individual state champions outdoors have been from the philly area, a stat that runs counter to my theory.
What does this show? It is a depth issue here, not a talent issue. The most talented runners will get their state titles, regardless of where they come from. But strong runners who are not Wade Endress type beasts, are going to struggle to compete indoors with guys who are getting top notch competition every weekend. Most schools just can't fund that kind of racing schedule if they don't have a real indoor program, and schools out west can't travel that far to get into the gold mine of talent in TFCAofGP type meets.
Where the numbers really show a trend is in the relays, which continues on with this idea of depth and quality of racing. 87.5% of the medalists indoors in the DMR and 4x8 combined are from the TFCAofGP. 100% of the relay champions indoors have come from the TFCAofGP. The Wade Endress anchored DMR indoors in 2010 was the closest anyone has come to dethroning the powerhouses from the GP.
The crazy thing is that in 2012, 2011, and 2010 the GPA took at least the top 7 spots in the 4x8 at states. In 2010, they took the top 14! Ususally the only medalists that come from outside the greater philly area are teams that scoop up one of the last few medals from the slow heat like Chambersburg, Easton, State College and Cumberland Valley have tried to do in the past. Otherwise it's total domination from the TFCAofGP squads.
Outdoors things look much different. 60% of the medalists in the 4x8 come from TFCAofGP, still a high number, but much differen than the nearly 90% we had seen previously. In addition, it's a 3-2 split in relay champions with TFCAofGP having a slight advantage thanks to the 2009 CB South team tie breaker (or perhaps it is more logical to call Bensalem this year the tie-breaker).
Across the board relays are mixing it up better indoors rather than outdoors with teams like CValley consistently performing at a higher level.
The biggest beneficiary from the move outdoors definitely seems to be District 3. Indoors they have not been able to get a state title on the distance side. However, outdoors between Brehm, CValley and Cedar Crest they have managed to break up some of the D1/Philly dominance. D7 got Gunzenhauser and Gil indoors with Martin and Bailey outdoors. In addition, their depth is much better shown outdoors than indoors.
Rarely do you see a non-TFCAofGP guy run his best marks of the year indoors, but there are usually a decent amount of Philly guys who do have PRs from indoors for whatever reason. Norris's states 3k was his best outside of Penn and he didn't match those marks in the late season meets. Rivera in the 800m got his PR indoors as did Sanders. Logue ran similar marks indoors and out. Wiseman took about a second off his mark, Lewis ran virtually a PR indoors. In 2009 Mallon and Palmisano and Reilly ran their fastest open 800m of the season indoors. Trainer's mark indoors for 3k in 2011 converted to a PR for the season counting outdoors. Willig had his best marks indoors, although injuries really screwed up his outdoor season that year. Ryan Horgan can be included here as well for his 800m and even guys like Savage or my boy Francis Ferruzzi have struggled to run marks equivalent to their indoor times once moving outside. Ivo, Kaulbach, Bodary, ...
The list can go on for a while here.
Overall, I think, while indoors is the only place where we have all the independent schools and AA schools come together with the AAA schools to decide one state champion, it is a bit of a flawed state championship. The real champions come in the spring and in the fall.
So my last point would be, let's try and get a PTFCA meet of champions for track! Make it the week after states, or maybe two weeks if people need time to rest (but then people may be less likely to do it). It would be fantastic to see a meet like we have indoors take place outdoors where true champions could be crowned.
Think about it PA officials ....
Stay classy,
Train
I leave my numbers below for you to inspect if you would like
2013
800m
5/8, champion, 15/24
4/8, not champion, 7/12
Mile/1600m
6/8, champion, 13/23
6/8, champion, 8/12
3000m/3200m
4/8, champion, 12/20
4/8, not champion, 7/12, 9/20
4x800m
7/8, champion, 17/20
4/8, champion, 5/12
DMR
7/8, champion, 12/13
2012
800m
5/8, champion, 16/21
3/8, not champion, 4/12
Mile/1600m
4/8, champion, 17/29
5/8, champion, 7/12
3000m/3200m
6/8, champion, 9/13
2/8, champion, 5/13, 8/20
4x800m
7/8, champion (top 7), 15/19
4/8, not champion, 8/12
DMR
6/8, champion, 7/11
2011
800m
4/8, not champion, 18/35
3/8, champion, 6/12
Mile/1600m
4/8, not champion, 12/18
3/8, champion, 7/12
3000m/3200m
5/8, not champion, 5/13
3/8, champion, 5/13, 9/20
4x800m
7/8 (top 7), champion, 17/23
5/8, champion, 8/12
DMR
8/8, champion, 11/13
2010
800m
4/8, champion, 16/26
5/8, champion, 7/12
Mile/1600m
6/8, champion, 10/18
6/8, champion, 8/12
3000m/3200m
2/8, not champion, 12/21
1/8, champion, 8/21
4x800m
8/8, champion, 18/20 (top 14 teams)
5/8, not champion, 6/12
DMR
6/8, champion 6/10
2009
800m
5/8, champion, 15/25
3/8, champion, 3/12
Mile/1600m
6/8, champion, 17/26
5/8, champion, 8/12
3000m/3200m
4/8, not champion, 7/11
5/8, champion, 8/11, 9/20
4x800m
7/8, champion, 11/14
6/8, champion, 9/12
DMR
7/8, champion, 9/10
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