The Road to Doha: The Road is Long

As indoor track ends, it’s time to turn our focus to the outdoor season and what is sure to be another exciting year. Starting in May, the qualification window for the Tokyo Olympics opens up (technically its already open for some of the less contested events) and the Doha Diamond League Meeting is on May 3^rd. But it’s another Doha event that will be the major focus of the 2019 season: the IAAF World Championships.

This year’s world outdoor championships are not what your used to. By the time the games close, it will actually be October, meaning high schoolers and collegiates will be fully engaged in cross country by the time the professional track season is finished. Because of the climate in Doha, the championships will take place from September 27^th to October 6^th. For comparison, the 2017 championships in London ran from August 4^th to August 13^th and the championships haven’t dipped into September since 2011 (when the last day was of competition was still only the 4^th). We are talking about an unprecedented schedule which will make things very tricky for competitors training schedules.

For starters, the USA Championships (which will be the qualifying event for Worlds) are held at the end of July. It’s roughly a month later than the championships are typically held, but still two months out from the games. That’s an early peak for professionals who are aiming to compete for medals in the fall.

Things are especially complicated for NCAA athletes looking to compete at national championships. Most years, NCAA athletes only have to hold their peak for a couple extra weeks before USAs, but this year they will have to last from June 8^th (the end of NCAAs) to July 25^th. Personally, I’m comfortable with this time increase. If you are nervous about holding your peak until July, imagine holding it until October? But typically, America has some of their best guys and girls competing at the collegiate level so we will potentially lose talent that isn’t willing to give up 4 more months for intense training.

The Wild Card system is also different from year’s past. Typically, the reigning world champion (from 2 years earlier) and the reigning diamond league champion (from 1 year earlier) are automatically qualified for the world championships and, as a result, their country can send 4 in that event. However, because the championships are so late, the 2019 Diamond League will end before the championships (atypical), meaning that the 2019 DL Champs rather than the 2018 DL Champs will get the wild cards. Since the DL doesn’t end until after USAs, this means that its possible someone who gets 4^th at the US Championships will find out a month or so later that they have qualified for worlds because one of the top 3 finishers won the Diamond League Final. It makes standard chasing very important through August for anyone who was even in contention for a qualifying spot at their national championships.

One last thing I found interesting is the WC Marathon. Although the US isn’t a powerhouse in the marathon the way it is in other events, I suspect it will be hard for them to convince three runners to compete in this year’s worlds. As mentioned, the races aren’t until late in the year and US Olympic Trials for the 2020 Tokoyo marathon (a much more prestigious marathon globally and nationally) are happening on February 29^th in Atlanta. That means you would have about a 5 month turnaround between events. It’s not impossible, but it’s also a tighter turnaround than you might want as you chase an Olympic dream. There will without a doubt be athletes that seize the opportunity to represent their country on one of the biggest stages in athletics, but it will be interesting to see how many skip Worlds for a chance at the Olympics. Especially considering that the US Marathoning at Worlds is typically an afterthought compared to major marathons like New York (only about 2 months after Doha), Boston or Chicago. Plus, those events may be worth more toward the world rankings if you can guarantee a top finish (a top 10 finish at a WMM is actually worth the Olympic Trials A standard for 2020). 

Global Track Check In

Laura Muir at the European Championships

This past weekend, I watched most of the European Indoor Championships in Glasgow because yes, I am that cool. I’m not really sure how much we should be taking away from an indoor event some seven months out from the World Championships in Doha, but I have to say I was very impressed with the performances from Laura Muir.

In the 3,000 meters, Muir went up against Konstanze Klosterhalfen of the Nike Oregon Project. Koko had been a tare since joining up with the most infamous training group in the USA, including a dominate 4:19.98 to win the Millrose Games Mile and an 8:32 in the 3k in Germany a week later. But Muir absolutely smashed Kloserhalfen in their duel at the Euro Indoors, dropping an 8:30.61 with a blazing final k.

Two days later, Muir lead wire to wire in the 1500, easily outclassing the rest of the field, including the world #2 in the 1500 this year Sofia Ennaoui. Again, she torched the track in the final 200 meters with a kick that I didn’t know she had available. It seems like a new weapon she recently added to her arsenal and it makes her very dangerous in the more tactical world championship finals (where she has had her fair share of struggles).

It’s still very early, but the Scots on Team Muir have a lot more to celebrate recently than Shelby Houlihan fans here in the states might.

Indoor Track

In case you haven’t noticed, indoor tracks have become pretty darn quick. Right up the east coast in Boston, one track in particular has stood out. On Sunday, Yomif Kejelcha absolutely smashed the indoor world record in the mile (and came within inches of breaking the 1500 record en route) with a 3:47.01. That’s not only 1.45 seconds faster than anybody in history, but when you compare it to outdoor times, it’s the fastest mile we’ve seen since 2007: Alan Webb’s American Record (shout out to the ghost of Steve Scott).

But this wasn’t the first moment of glory for this indoor track. Just a year earlier, Edward Cheserek ran a then #2 all-time mark of 3:49.44 on the blazing fast surface. And before all of that, Galen Rupp owned a permanent wing on the track where he chased American Records in everything from the 5k to the mile (he tapped out a 3:50.92 in 2013).

By the way, it wasn’t just Yomif blasting the all-time list on Sunday. Johnny Gregorek dipped under 3:50 with his 3:49.98 mile to move to the #6 position all-time and Sam Prakel matched Marcus O’Sullivan’s 10^th ranked mark. Neither have ever topped that outdoors which probably isn’t all too shocking when you consider Olympic Gold Medalist Matt Centrowitz’s outdoor best is “just” 3:50.53.

So that’s really the point I was (quite long-windedly) getting around to here. Are indoor tracks actually faster than outdoor tracks? When guys who are likely 5k specialists such as Kejelcha, Cheserek and Rupp are soaring to some of the fastest miles of all-time (marks they will likely never equal outdoors), should we begin to give more credence to the idea that indoor facilities are really the fastest we have available?

IAAF World Rankings

The IAAF has come out its new world ranking system and they seem ready to publicize it. The list is all over their official website in some form or another, categorizing runners current rankings, equivalent result scores and meet categories.

In case you haven’t seen (because only about 1% of the track community has), the IAAF has set up a system that aims to standardize performances based on the time (results score) and place in a given meet. The bigger the meet (the highest being the world championships/Olympic games), the more potential placing points that are available. The rankings then take an average of these performance metrics and rank the athletes in a given event based on said average. There’s a full, much more detailed and complex explanation available for those who are into that sort of thing on the IAAF website (I’ve already read the whole thing unsurprisingly).

If you’re any sort of track fan, I think it’s a lot of fun to click around the rankings. There are certainly some flaws (the NCAA meet results do not place out very well against many top Euro meets, despite the fact that it had likely the best competitors in the world in the men’s and women’s 400 hurdles and men’s 400), but I think it’s really helpful to have a starting point metric for, say, where one of the USA’s pole vaulters stack up against the best in the world.

What I find particularly interesting is the fact that the points are normalized across events so, in theory, you can rank a steeplechaser against a triple jumper or a marathon runner against a decathlete. I don’t think they actually intend to use this part of the rankings for anything (the individual event rankings could be used for future global championship qualifying), but it’s a fun little activity. Beatrice Chepkoech, recent world record holder in the steeple, ranks #1 on the women’s side while the USA’s 200 meter man Noah Lyles is tied with 400 hurdler Abderrahman Samba of Qatar. Freshly minted marathon world record holder Eliud Kipchoge comes in at #3 (my wife says he got robbed).