2018 Indoor State Recap: Individual Events

Mile

Obviously, the mile lost some of its appeal without the reigning PA #1 in the field, but we still got a matchup between four bona fide stars-and those stars did not disappoint. LaSalle’s Evan Addison had the lead early, taking it through the 809m in about 2:11. The top 4 guys by time asserted themselves right at the top – Conway, Beveridge, Addison and Wirth. Beveridge. Wirth slipped back a bit at the end, but with a lap to go there were three runners within a second. Ultimately, Conway took command on the ultimate turn with a 27.86, but Beveridge put up an awesome battle with a 28 second final lap of his own. Keep in mind, Noah entered the season known best for his prowess at XC/3200 and now he ends the year going toe to toe with a guy who has finished in the top 3 in the state for the mile/1600 three times. As we look ahead to outdoors, it seems that we may see Noah back in his potential sweet spot-the 3200. I’d love to see him match up with Rusty again and hopefully push each other to sub 9.

For Conway the storyline becomes-can he duplicate this outdoors? Especially if Hoey is back on the line. At this point (as I’ll discuss in another post in the queue), I’m not sure we see Hoey in very many more high school only meets so it’s possible Josh is already done competed at PA State Championships. But if Conway does get a shot at him, he will be hungry to show that his mile win wasn’t a fluke and that he can contend with the mighty national record holder. That could make for another fun championship storyline this coming spring.

If there’s no Hoey, Evan Addison and Tyler Wirth are set up to be the prime contenders. That being said, last year we saw Matt Scarpill, Jesse Cruise, Isaac Kole, Bryan Keller, Sam Affolder, Liam Galligan and Owen Wing on the medal stand-none of which competed indoors in the state championship for the mile. Yes, only Conway had an indoor mile and outdoor 1600 medal last year (in AAA). I’d say that’s an atypical trend, but one to keep in the back of your mind when flipping ahead to spring.

As exciting as seeing the top 4 duke it out for medals was, it was equally exciting to see some newcomers get on the medal stand. Tyler Wirth will be the top returner, but Cameron Binda and Aiden Tomov joined him as juniors on the medal stand. Binda ran a 4:22 for a big indoor PR and a huge breakthrough on the oval this winter. Tomov ran an aggressive race at the front of Heat 1 and was rewarded with his own nice PR at 4:25 and a victory in the slower heat by a nose over Elias Lindgren. Mount Lebanon’s Patrick Anderson was the top sophomore in the field, taking 10^th overall in 4:29.91.

Shout out to Connor Shields and the Warwick coaches. Shields had a strong season, but didn’t have that blazing fast seed time so it looked like he would be left completely out of the state meet. However, the coaches entered Shields into the meet with his 4:34 seed that was well over the standard and hoped for the best. He got into the meet and nearly stole a medal with a big indoor best of 4:29.55 for 9^th place overall. That’s an awesome job seizing the opportunity to compete and gain experience. The junior now heads into outdoor with a little extra confidence after running in the low 4:20s a year ago as a sophomore. Watch for Shields as a sleeper out of District 3.

Will Merhige ends the year as the top independent runner in the mile (and the top independent distance medalist). The senior consistently dropped time every race that he ran. Merhige was entered in a lot of miles in a row this season and clicked off solid marks in the high 4:20s before popping off this big 4:22 PR. Merhige hung tough in the fast heat, hanging in the pack until the final 400 meters and then closing well at PR pace. We will have to keep an eye out for Merhige and Lindgren (as well as Peter Borger) when the tide switches to outdoors as they aren’t in the PIAA and likely won’t get a lot of coverage when we hit the postseason. Hopefully, we can see them match up against our stars throughout the regular season and continue to prove they need to be mentioned in state elite discussions.

800m

We knew entering into the race that Heat 2 had a chance to steal the show and man did they set the stage for a terrific final. As expected, the Pennsbury boys were active early as they took Heat 2 through 400 meters in 55 seconds. That left the rest of the heat hanging on for dear life as Brett Zatlin and Matt Eissler clung to the 3-4 spot. By 600 meters, Zatlin had moved into second behind Aidan Sauer of Pennsbury and on the last lap he had just enough to go by Sauer and win the heat-both guys were under the impressive 1:55 barrier.

For Zatlin this was a huge breakthrough result. He entered the meet with a best at 1:57 and completely skipped the 1:56s and 1:55s to find himself in pole position for the state championship with one heat to go. For Sauer, this result was excellent as well as he got a lifetime best out of the race. It’s unclear exactly what happened with Pennsbury’s 4x8 (injury to Scratchard?), but ultimately it’s nice to see a talent like Sauer rewarded with an awesome race and new PR in the open event. If Scratchard can come back for outdoors, a Pennsbury-CB West (Shanahan?) match up would be fun.

In the fast heat, Robert Dupell’s first lap 26.49 indicated we could see a fast enough pace to make the winner of this heat the state champion. But 400 meters in, it didn’t look like that winner would be Liam Conway. The mile champ was in last place in the heat through the opening two laps. However, he made a nice move on the 3^rd to get himself in position. Of course, Ephrata’s super sophomore Tyler Shue had a similar idea. The District 3 standout moved into the pole position by the bell in a move wise beyond his years and then it was just about holding on. Ultimately, despite a 28.43 last lap, he was not match for Conway’s 27.65. Conway completed the double and wrote his name in the history books. But Shue was rewarded with a silver medal, a gigantic open PR of 1:53 and a legion of new supporters. Both guys came out of this one pretty good.

Kamil Jihad of Neumann Goretti ended up with the bronze just a shade ahead of Zatlin at 1:54.59 to Brett’s 1:54.65. For Jihad, it’s his best ever indoor finish and second straight medal. He will be gunning for that elusive outdoor 800 title this spring against, most likely, Tyler Leeser.

Big shout out to David Endres and Collin Ebling. It was unclear entering the state meet if these guy’s 1:55 breakthroughs were just flashes in the pan or a real indication of fitness. Personally, I was pretty skeptical of both guy’s ability to get on the medal stand, especially the junior Endres, but they both delivered. David dropped another PR, getting to 1:54.90 and making him the fastest indoor 800 runner in a school that includes some all-time greats including 1993 state champ Jeff Heath and 1999 outdoor champ Kevin Nishiyama.

Matt Eissler of Pennridge had a heck of day in his own right. The junior was a state medalist a year earlier, but lended his talents to the 4x800 at the start of the meet. His 1:56 anchor carry lifted his team from 4^th to 2^nd in the final standings and got Pennridge 8 points in the team race. He also added a key 4x4 leg on the 4^th place relay in the state. In between he managed to sneak in a heck of an open 800 at 1:55.37 (I think an open PR?). At some point, this kid is going to pop off a huge time. I’m not sure when or if it will be in the open or a relay, but I’m feeling a 1:52-1:51 kind of time from Eissler before this year ends. You heard it here first.

In total we had 11 guys under 1:57 in this race including non-medalists Jonah Hoey (a sophomore at 1:56.01 indoors would be a huge story if it wasn’t for Shue), Jarnail Dhillon (1:56.67) and Ethan Zeh (1:56.93). Radnor looks like they’ve found another medal contender in the 800. They are coaching ‘em up nicely down there.

Lastly, have to give props to Collin Ochs of CR South. He qualified for the state meet last week with a big run and then he unleashed an awesome final lap in the first heat of states individually to clock 1:59.07. CR South had a 1:55 split on their second leg (was that also from Ochs?) and took 4^th in the state for the 4x800 as well. I love that CR South has stacked the 2^nd leg the last few years on the 4x8. Just think it’s a cool move.

3,000m

The Rusty Kujdych show is getting good. The Neshaminy senior has now clinched the first two legs of the triple crown-winning the XC State Championship and the indoor 3,000. How many guys in the last 15 years have won an individual state championship in the fall and the winter? Craig Miller (2006), Jason Weller (2007), Ryan Gil (2011), Tony Russell (2014), Jake Brophy (2016), Noah Affolder (2017). How many went on to complete the triple crown in the spring? Just one – Jason Weller in 2007. That’s the history that Rusty will be up against as he enters outdoors.

This was a huge win for Rusty as he rolled through a solid field to win by some 12 seconds. This is the biggest win I can remember since Colin Martin got the state title in 2014 with a similar time of 8:30.82. Martin went on to finish the season under 9 minutes for 3200. I’d imagine that Rusty has that sub 9 number in mind and he honestly may get down to 9:05ish at Nationals before we even hit the outdoor oval. He is very fit right now.

Let’s give big props to the 2-3 finishers in this race. Mitchell Etter and Tyler Rollins edged themselves ahead of the small school guys in the closing stages of this race to earn marquee state medals and drop some nice PRs. For Rollins, he only got a state qualifier last week with a time not much under 9 minutes. In this race, he dropped a monster 8:45 PR and pocketed the silver medal. This guy is ascending at the right time. As for Etter, I was worried about how he would handle this big stage, but the State College runner used that home track advantage to produce a huge 8:42 and second place finish. This is two clutch races in a row for Etter as he needed a PR about 10 days ago just to get into the meet and now he tops a great field for the silver. I’m eager to see how these two carry their momentum into the outdoor season where the competition looks poised to heat up in the 3200.

Brendan Miller and Tristan Forsythe represented the A classification well with 4^th and 5^th place finishes in this event. Forsythe took the pace out aggressively early and stuck is nose in the race, jockeying in the top pack through 2400 meters. With Hoey opting out of the mile, it would have been interesting to see Forysthe in that mile field competing for gold as well-hopefully that didn’t weigh on his mind in this race. As for Miller, he gets some revenge on Forsythe after finishing runner up to him during XC and sets himself up as the favorite outdoors in the 3200 (Tristan likely tries to defend his 1600 title outdoors). Miller was in 2^nd place with 400 meters to go but couldn’t hold off the kicks of Etter and Rollins as all three jockeyed throughout the final 800.

Spencer Smucker and Dan McGoey added their first track medals to XC medals from the fall. Manheim Township’s Ian Miller became the first MT medalist in this event since Craig Miller (who has the meet record at 8:22). Miller’s 8:55 result was great as he has run a ton of 3ks this year and could have easily been too fatigued to deliver a PR on the big stage. Instead, he came through clutch and took 7^th place. McGoey earns a 3k medal as a sophomore, joining a pretty exclusive club of all-timers. Penncrest’s Patrick Theveny was less than a half second away from doing the same. He ran a great race and was one lap away from a state medal of his own as he and McGoey flipped places on the last lap. I was still very impressed with Theveny’s season and hanging tough with the 3^rd place finisher from XC states should hopefully give him some confidence looking ahead. The Theveny-Lederer 1-2 punch should be excellent this spring.

2018 PTFCA Indoor Championship: 5 Opening Remarks

I’ll spare you most of the sentimental stuff I put out there during XC as I start to look back on this blog’s last indoor state championship. The following post will capture my five biggest takeaways after an initial skim of the results. I’ll be doing more of a deep dive in the coming week with my full breakdown on all the events.

1. Liam Conway gets the double

In 1993, the indoor state championship switched from a Mile-1,000 format to a Mile-800. Before today, there had been just one double gold individual winner-that counts both the mile-3k and mile-800 doubles. On Sunday, Liam Conway doubled that list as he sits next to Wade Endress as the only other two time individual gold medalist in 25 years of indoor state championships. This is a truly remarkable achievement, with the stage being set for this possibility a year earlier when Conway successfully completed a double medal winning double at PSU.

In the mile, Conway used his strong tactics to pull off the win and post a new indoor mile best en route to the gold. When it came time for the 800, I personally really doubted that he would have enough left in the tank. In the beginning, he lagged off the pace, but he stayed focused and raced poised before rolling through to a second state gold. When the pressure was mounting on the biggest stage we have in the state, Conway delivered.

Last year, Liam entered the indoor state meet hoping to leave with his first state medal. He left with two. This year, Liam entered the indoor state meet hoping to leave with his first state gold. He left with two.

2. Seneca Valley goes all in – and wins

Personally, I always enjoy when a team goes all in to try and win a relay. Seneca Valley could have had a very strong 4x8, mixing it up for gold and certainly a top 3 spot. Their top two individuals, Seth Ketler and Sam Owori, would have been likely medal contenders given their PRs and racing acumen. But that wasn’t what mattered to this squad. Seneca Valley became the first Western team to win the DMR at indoor states and rolled to an impressive 10:21 victory. Sam Owori set the stage with a blazing 3:07 lead off and Seth Ketler brought it home with a smooth 4:24 anchor, but the guys in between-seniors Luke Bellack and Alex Dixon-really helped set the stage for the championship. Dixon had the fastest 800 split of anyone in the race.

In XC, Seneca Valley had an awesome team. They likely believed they had the potential to be state champions or at least get on the podium but-unfortunately-it just wasn’t their day. In the final standings, Bishop Shanahan snuck ahead of them by just 3 points and knocked them out of the top 5. As they entered the anchor leg on state Sunday, again Shanahan sat ahead of them, but this time they were able to flip the script. Seneca Valley also knocked off the 4^th, 2^nd and 1^st place teams from XC states (as well as the AA state champions) on the road to redemption.

3. State Qualifying System

I started with some uplifting tales, I’ll end with some uplifting tales, but in between I’ve got to get a quick vent session in. States is truly a remarkable day. For some people, you only get one chance to compete a state championship. Often times, we can take the opportunity for granted, but for a lot of seniors who worked for four years to try and get to this moment that one little race is remembered for the rest of their life.

So it hurts to see spots thrown away when we know there are only a certain number up for grabs. Note that this didn’t just happen once or twice or only on the distance side. We had at least 1 scratch in the 4x2, 4x4, 60m dash, 200m, 400m, 800m, Mile, 3000m, 60H, and Triple Jump. I counted 17 open spots that, in theory, could have been filled by another athlete or relay across those events. That’s not just the work of one team, that’s a systematic issue across the state.

I’m not involved in the selection process, so I’m not saying I have a perfect solution, but I ask teams/the PTFCA to consider a few things. 1) Maybe we can extend the window of when a team has to make their state entries a little longer so that we can give coaches/athletes a bit more time to think about how best to distribute themselves across the events. 2) Can we have some type of alternate system so that the first couple guys out can be on call and they can be added if a spot opens up? Maybe not on the day of states, but if they can get a couple days notice, I’d bet a lot of athletes would shoot up to PSU for the chance to run at states. 3) I’m asking everyone to please remember that there are only select spots available. Use the time you have to think and consider those who are being shut out of the meet as a result of your decisions.

Another solution is to, of course, set a qualifying time for states and anybody who hits it is in. That way, a scratch doesn’t directly affect someone and we don’t have to worry about all this. This almost definitely isn’t going to happen because we are terrified of having too many heats of certain races, but maybe we could make the standards harder and then add teams if we need to. For the record, this year there was only one distance event (the 3k) where all the guys that raced had the current state standard. And that only left out one guy who could have easily been added to the 3k field for a 13 person heat.

Sorry, I’ll get off my high horse now. Plus, this is the last time I can preach with this crap since my last indoors is in the books, so you won’t have to worry about this anymore going forward.

4. Tyler Shue

I’ve been trying to get people to notice Shue for the last few months. Now I think I can stop worrying about that. The Ephrata sophomore started the day by running a 1:54 split and blowing away the rest of the lead off legs on the 4x800. That gave Ephrata enough of an early age to claim bronze in the relay. Then, doubling back after this solo performance, Shue made a hard charge on the toughest lap of the 800 and tried to steal an individual gold for himself. If it wasn’t for perhaps the Athlete of the Meet in Liam Conway than he would have done it. The sophomore stopped the clock at 1:53.85 which, as far as I can tell from my research, is the fastest indoor 800 ever run by a sophomore. Tom Mallon and John Lewis, the last two outdoor state record holders, ran only 1:56 during their sophomore seasons. That time also would have won states 8 different times since 2001. And by the way, he was on the double. The relay meet order has only recently changed, but we haven’t seen a 4x8-8 double this good in a long while. Let alone from a sophomore.

5. Spring Ford

The Rams from Spring Ford are quickly becoming the clutchest team in the state. During XC, they were 4^th in Hershey after almost being left out of the state meet entirely. They came within a few points of knocking off the district champs from DT West and posted two top 50 finishers. After two heartbreaking years struggling to get a chance on the Hershey hills, it seemed like the storybook ending to this distance squad’s story.

But the Spring Ford boys are graduated yet. Although they are an east coast team, Spring Ford doesn’t race in the TFCAofGP and they proved you can have success outside its borders. In key meets like Burdette and the PTFCA Carnival, they established their credentials and got a SQG mark. They entered a fresh relay just like Seneca Valley, but unlike SV they were just the 8^th seed on time.

Without the flashy names or revered history, the Rams simply rammed their competition in the closing stages of the race. Zach Smith set things off nicely with a 3:11.12 to hand off in 4^th. The middle legs were absolutely blazing as Stephen Chapman clocked a 49.62 and Milan Sharma produced 1:58.90, making for the best middle distance crew of anyone in the field. So much for being just an XC squad. Then Jacob McKenna continued to prove he’s one of the best guys in the state. McKenna dropped a 4:23.49 and held off the charge from anchors like Brian Baker and Evan Addison. In the end, Spring Ford posted a 10:23.11 and grabbed the silver medals at the state championship.

It’s an unbelievable storybook ending. But I’m guessing they will go ahead and write another chapter in their story this spring.

Obviously, there was also an impressive national record this weekend set by one of our own, Josh Hoey, up in Boston. I will provide some thoughts on that in a coming post (spoiler alert: it’s really good), but wanted to keep this one state championship specific.

Thanks to those of you who have stuck around for the past few months during this lame duck term. I hope you enjoyed the coverage. Although the indoor season is considered the “least important”, it’s an important one to me as I keep the qualifier list here on the site running all year long and hopefully provide coaches/athletes a glimpse at the qualifying picture. Trying to give everyone the best opportunity to get the most out of yourself and get to states is really my biggest goal and I hope that the time and effort that went into that list helped at least one of you out there to run on the big stage.

2018 Indoor State Championship Preview: DMR

DMR

The Stage

In one of the biggest surprises of the championship, Seneca Valley pulled out of both the individuals and the 4x8 in order to put all their focus into the DMR. The reigning WPIAL champs in XC are hoping to become the first western team in state history to win the DMR (after Carlisle was the first mid-state team to win last year). Based on my records, a WPIAL team has never won either the 4x8 or the DMR on the boy’s side at indoor states which means this could be a truly historic achievement for this squad. Standing in their way is a familiar name in Bishop Shanahan, a 4x8 power in CB West and a two time DMR champ in LaSalle.

The Field

Germantown Friend’s 10:45.91

CB East 10:45.02

CR North 10:41.53

Neshaminy 10:40.25

Spring Ford 10:40.14

Penncrest 10:39.94

Wyomissing 10:38.07

LaSalle 10:36.50

Butler 10:33.94

CB West 10:29.22

Bishop Shanahan 10:24.64

Seneca Valley 10:23.07

As mentioned, Seneca Valley is pushing all their chips into the pot on the DMR and I am really excited about the decision. The team ran a 10:23 in a mid-season trip to the armory and, although they haven’t raced the event since, has clocked big times individually and in the 4x8. Sam Owori and Seth Ketler are set up to be two strong pieces on the end legs and the Dixon-Bellack combo is not going to lose ground to many. This team looks great on paper and has been good in practice as this quarter ran 7:46 in the 4x8 last spring with two sophomores leading the charge.

Shanahan, at full strength, would be the team to beat. Despite SV’s great roster, Shanahan is somehow better. A Hoey-Zink-Yoquinto-Hoey relay would be blazing fast across the board. But will we see that relay? With Josh entered in both the mile and the 800 and the team qualifying a 4x4 last minute, I think we will see a modified squad like featuring Carlos Shultz. Shanahan was still a sub 11 team at Meet of Champs with the aforementioned modified relay so they are still dangerous, but I don’t see them as title contenders at this stage.

I think Seneca Valley’s biggest competition will come from CB West, LaSalle and Wyomissing. CB West skipped the individual events to attack this race. For me, I’m curious what West’s relay order is going to be. I’m assuming Baker is the mile, but I don’t know who is going to run that 1200 leg. That is where the race will likely be won or lost for this squad (unless they throw Baker on the 12 and give Bunch the anchor with fresh legs-they could pull a 2016 O’Hara type move and breakaway in the early stages). LaSalle may have the best anchor in this field as Evan Addison has 1:54 speed combined with 4:17 strength. They’ve got a nice #2 piece in Twomey (who should be fresh) and a 2 flat x-factor in Boyle.

But I really like this Wyomissing squad. They ran 10:38 last week with essentially no competition. Joe Cullen is a star with 1:53/4:13 ability. I don’t know if he will be on the 12 on the anchor, but either way he can do a lot of damage. Sophomore Ben Kuhn will have some pressure on him, but he’s risen to the occasion before for the W. Remember, these guys won a state championship in a complete team effort during the fall. They’ve scratched all individual events to chase another one this weekend and they may shock the world in the process.

It’s amazing that I still haven’t talked about Butler. Seneca Valley has overshadowed them in the WPIAL, but they have a comparable 1-2 punch in Brady and Beveridge. Noah has scratched the 3k specifically for this DMR relay and that sort of good karma can go a long way (I think of Kevin James in 2015-a second O’Hara reference for you). Both he and Brady will be on the double which could complicate the picture, but they just ran their own solo sub 10:40 DMR and they shouldn’t be counted out.

Penncrest, CR North and Spring Ford are also all in on this DMR. Penncrest won the Meet of Champs, clinching their spot. They remind me a lot of Lower Merion’s medal winning squad a year ago and Avery Lederer (who scratched multiple individual events to focus on this relay) is a reliable anchor piece. CRN hasn’t dropped a fire DMR since the Lavino Relays so they’ve been playing their cards pretty close to the vest. They have 3 XC state medalists on this squad plus a guy who has split 47 on a DMR before in Welde. Spring Ford’s last state championship featured a 4^th place finish so they are no stranger to rising to the moment. McKenna is great, but Zach Smith is the x-factor. He’s had a terrific season to date and can really swing this race with a big leg (I assume he’s the 12 but they may use him at 800).

In a fresh scenario, Neshaminy has the best anchor in this field-Rusty Kujdych. However, Rusty is doubling off the 3k which is a tough ask for any runner. However, if anyone can pull it off, I suppose it may be Kujdych who has been seemingly invincible thus far in 2017-2018. Can his teammates keep it close enough for Rusty to work his magic over the final 8 laps?

CB East and GFS are the last two teams in the field. CB East has a really interesting squad. I’d love to see Endres on a 12 and Bardwell on an anchor. I think that line up (assuming Endres has the stamina to double/triple) could be really effective. GFS has a championship pedigree in this event as one of the most consistent medal contenders we’ve seen. This is perhaps their biggest long shot for a medal we’ve seen during the last decade, but they still return a crew that knows how to win a national championship in this 4,000 meter race. Don’t sleep on the 12 seed.

Predictions

Seneca Valley is certainly the easy pick as they are fresh, focused and the #1 seed. However, I think this race has the potential for madness. To me, it really comes down to the order. I’m interested to see who is anchor for CB West and Wyomissing. I want to see what strategy each team is going to use to try and either break the field or make up ground in the second half of the race. I think you can make a good case for any of the 12 teams to place top 3.

I would bet a substantial amount of money that these predictions will be least accurate of all my predictions. But I’ll make them anyway.

1. Seneca Valley 10:24.70

2. CB West 10:28.03

3. Wyomissing 10:28.85

4. Butler 10:29.41

5. LaSalle 10:29.57

6. CR North 10:31.52

7. Spring Ford 10:32.64

8. Penncrest 10:34.18

2018 Indoor State Championship Preview: 4x800m

4x800m

The Stage

Ironically, what has easily been the best 4x8 performance of the 2018 winter track season came during 2017. Bishop Shanahan opened up the year with a 7:49.37 4x800 that has held his position across the leaderboard throughout the year. However, it’s unclear if Shanahan will have those same pieces on the line when the gun sounds for PSU’s first distance event. Ironically, seemingly their top challenger in Pennsbury has scratched the event (as has western power Seneca Valley) seemingly further opening the door for Shanahan. However, CB West, the reigning outdoor state champions, are not expected to go quietly. They’ve yet to fully unleash their 4x8 on a fast track, but they’ve clocked 8 flat this year and are all in on the relays here at states.

Heat 1

CB South 8:19.74

Bensalem 8:17.17

Penn Wood 8:16.93

Radnor 8:13.88

Indiana Area 8:13.22

LaSalle 8:13.17

Twin Valley 8:12.96

Boyertown 8:11.63

Mount Lebanon 8:11.45

With a two heat set up, the odds say that at least one team from the slow heat will slip onto the medal stand. Last year, funny enough, it was Bishop Shanahan who won the slow heat and grabbed some medals. This year, I think it is more likely to come from a team outside District One. Personally, I think LaSalle will likely leave off Addison (and potentially Boyle) from this 4x8 and focus on the 4x8. They are still pretty dangerous (they’ve got a lot of pieces in the 2:04 range), but I don’t see them contending for a medal.

I really like the western teams. Mount Lebanon has been consistent all year and finally dipped under the SQG once they got the right competition (from a talented Indiana squad). I could see Lebo continuing to shine as they get their first real opportunity to run on a fast track. They were in this race a year ago which also gives them an edge in experience. Plus, they likely still have a bit of a chip on their shoulder after XC. Twin Valley out of District 3 is another team that has strong pieces. Dylan Servis is a great star with sub 2 ability and this team impressed at the Meet of Champs when they finally got that SQG to punch a ticket to states.

Of course, there will be a strong D1 contingent in this race. Radnor has two stars in Brown and Zeh. If the other legs step up, then this team will be near 8 flat. Boyertown is another team that I’ve been watching closely in 2018. They have a lot of talent including Josh Endy who has been down near 2 minutes often this year. Bensalem and CB South have each won state titles in the past and Penn Wood is a developing power with a potential star on the rise in Gaymore. They’ve got raw speed that no other team has.

Heat 2

DT West 8:09.50

CB East 8:08.53

GFS 8:07.59

Abington 8:07.41

Pennridge 8:03.98

CR South 8:03.88

Ephrata 8:03.62

CB West 7:57.74

Bishop Shanahan 7:49.37

As I’ve discussed before, I don’t see Shanahan stacking this relay. With Josh Hoey’s Mile-800 double looming, I doubt he would be featured on this relay. I’m also skeptical that Jonah Hoey will be included although it’s definitely possible. If they feature Jonah along with Yoquinto, Penney and McGrory they may still be the favorites for gold.

However, I think CB West is the team to beat. Not only are they all in on the relays, but they are super talented. Brian Baker is a star. Luke Fehrman can drop a 1:56 at least. I’m not sure what kind of shape Claricurzio is in, but when he’s at his best, there’s only a handful of guys that can keep within spitting distance. This program has proven they know how to put it together for the big races and they’ve got at least two, likely three, guys on the relay who are already state champs after last outdoors.

After these two, it’s hard to know which other squads will crack 8 minutes. Ephrata is a team I’ve talked about a lot, but are they ready for this moment? They have some state experience from last spring, but their best runner is only a sophomore. Can they handle the pressure? If they bring their “A” game, this team may win the whole thing.

Abington and Pennridge are yearly powers. Abington has a great 1-2 punch in Mitchell and Coleman (both could be sub 2 guys), but Pennridge’s is even better. If Matt Eissler is included on the relay (and I think he will be) then they have two sub 2 minute guys in the Eissler’s. The Rams were quiet early, but they’ve caught fire in recent weeks including a big win at Meet of Champs.

CR South lost their best runner from last year’s sub 8 squad, but they may be deeper this year. Collin Ochs and Andrew Zawodniak have been on fire as of late. GFS was second a year ago in a sub 7:50 time. They may have lost their two big names, but that doesn’t mean this team is finished. DT West isn’t a traditional 4x8 power (I think of them more as a DMR squad), but they’ve quietly developed a nice middle distance core over the past few seasons. Their DMR didn’t end up making the cut for states this year so they will have to be all in on this relay. I think an all in CB East team could make a nice run at a sub 8 kind of time, especially if Endres is ready to roll on the anchor leg with his 1:55 speed. However, I’m not sure what their intentions are as they have two relays and Endres in the open 8. They may hold him out of this one (they are deep enough to be under 8:10 without him if things click).

Predictions

Shanahan could definitely win this one, but there are a few too many questions heading into this race. After seeing them win the slower section without Josh last year, it’s clear this program is deep (and knows they are deep) so they may believe they can score big points here without either Hoey (but definitely without Josh). That leans me towards CB West.

I will say that I really like Ephrata’s squad. I’m not sure they are deep enough to match up with the middle legs from West, but if Shue and Baker get it together, I’m not positive Baker wins it (as good as he has been this year).

1. CB West 7:52.50

2. Ephrata 7:54.98

3. Pennridge 7:57.32

4. CR South 7:59.47

5. Abington 8:00.11

6. Shanahan 8:03.64

7. Mount Lebanon 8:04.92

8. Radnor 8:05.76

2018 Indoor State Championship Preview: 800m

800m

The Stage

If things hold to script in the Mile, Josh Hoey will enter the 800 with history on his mind. The defending 800 champion is seeking to win both the mile and the 800-the first such achievement since Wade Endress in 2011 and just the second time it’s been done since 1992. Hoey enters with a season best well ahead of the rest of the field (he’s the only one under 1:55 with his 1:51), but he will have tired legs from at least one race prior to this one. Those tired legs could leave him vulnerable to a challenger-a slew of relative unknowns have dipped into the 1:55s this season and are hungry for more. And, oh by the way, the 800 has three heats, each with high upside kind of guys. That could lead to some madness across the board.

Heat 1

Matt Wehrle, Punxsutawney 2:00.42

Tyler Wirth, Wallenpauack 1:59.78

Dylan Servis, Twin Valley 1:59.56

Jarrett Zelinsky, HG Prep 1:59.29

Hudson Delisle, Quakertown 1:58.77

Nick Gabrielli, Kiski 1:58.59

Collin Ochs, CR South 1:58.45

Seth Phillips, Mifflin County 1:58.37

There’s usually at least one guy who pops off a top 10 performance from the first heat, but who seems most likely to do it? At least a few names from this heat will enter the race on the double: Wirth from the mile, Ochs and Servis from the 4x8. As I’ve said before, I am always wary of guys doubling off earlier events as state races can take a lot out of you. That being said, we saw Liam Conway a year ago double between the mile and 800 and leave with medals in both events. Another talented junior with good speed (Wirth) could end his state meet the same way if things click.

The most logical names from this heat to me for a breakthrough are Delisle and Zelinsky. Delisle has run 1:52 and was third at states a year ago, kicking to a win in the 2^nd of 3 sections. However, Delisle hasn’t raced much since the early season so it’s unclear just how sharp he is. Meanwhile, Zelinsky is a relative newcomer to the 800, but he has great speed. He’s been gaining confidence in recent weeks, holds a sub 2 best and vaguely (very vaguely) reminds me of the Sam Ellison story. I could see him popping a 1:57 and winning this heat.

Heat 2

Lamaj Curry, Chester 1:58.22

Ethan Zeh, Radnor 1:57.94

Michael Clark, Methacton 1:57.53

Javier Linares, Pennsbury 1:57.36

Jarnail Dhillon, Upper Darby 1:57.29

Brett Zatlin, Great Valley 1:57.13

Matt Eissler, Pennridge 1:57.03

Aidan Sauer, Pennsbury 1:56.68

At least one runner from this heat will medal. That’s what history tells us and, unsurprisingly, I tend to side with history. I’m even more confident in that prediction based on the fact that this heat is pretty stacked. First of all, you have two Pennsbury runners in this heat in Javier Linares and Aidan Sauer. After Pennsbury surprisingly scratched the 4x8, these guys are suddenly fresh, fearless contenders who are all in on this event. If memory serves, Linares went out near 25 seconds at Ocean Breeze a few weeks back during his 1:57 run. Assuming he is bold enough to push the pace early again (perhaps with Sauer accompanying him) this race could be fast enough for a 1:54 winner which, in my eyes, has got to get you at least top 6.

Beyond the Pennsbury duo, I think Matt Eissler and Brett Zatlin will contend for the win in this heat. Zatlin is fresh and seems ready to roll after his multiple 1:57-1:58 times this year. He could pop one this weekend. Eissler may have the 4x8 already in his legs, but he’s a returning state medalist in a program that knows how to produce 800 stars.

The deep sleeper would be Ethan Zeh of Radnor. Not only has Radnor become something of a mid distance power (Holm, Kelly, Cooke all excelling in recent years), but Zeh is fresh off a massive 1:58 run at the Meet of Champions (winning the slow heat if memory serves). I think Radnor will make a push for the medals in the 4x8 so Zeh might be tired out, but the junior shouldn’t be counted out of this field.

Heat 3

Robert Dupell, St. Joe’s Prep 1:56.41

Jonah Hoey, Bishop Shanahan 1:56.11

Tyler Shue, Ephrata 1:56.01

Kamil Jihad, Neumann Goretti 1:55.43

David Endres, CB East 1:55.05

Collin Ebling, Pottsville 1:55.03

Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts 1:54.41

Josh Hoey, Bishop Shanahan 1:51.49

I think between my posts thus far I’ve said enough about Hoey’s credentials. He’s a super talented runner who could potentially end the winter season with state records in the mile and 800. He’s got a big advantage by seed time in this race, but he’s going to have to produce with tired legs. Unlike Endress who doubled or tripled at nearly all major championships in his career, Josh doesn’t have a history of marquee doubles. It doesn’t mean he can’t do it, but it does mean we could see a surprise in this. If somebody makes him work in the mile, that will add even more stress to this 800.

The other thing I feel compelled to bring up is Tom Mallon in 2010. Mallon was the defending 800 meter state champion as he entered this race his senior season. He was by far the most accomplished 800 guy in the field and he had already split sub 1:50 the previous outdoors. However, Mallon was doubling off a mile victory earlier in the meet and took a passive approach to the 800 on tired legs (he was also slated to run the DMR). As a result, the pace lagged too much in the early stages of the fast heat of the 800 as everyone simply defaulted to Mallon and he didn’t have it in him to take on the pace. That left the door open for Luke Lefebure to steal the state title from the second of three heats in a surprise upset. Maybe that happens here with the top two seeds (Conway and Hoey) both doubling and other guys being more of the kicker type surrounding them.

As alluded to, Liam Conway is doubling off the mile, but that doesn’t mean he can’t contend. He’s very familiar with this double from a year ago. Of course more than just the top seeds are doubling. David Endres and Tyler Shue are likely both doubling off the 4x8 (although I’m not 100% positive we see Endres on that relay). Jonah Hoey may also be doubling off the 4x8 although my current speculation is that we see him fresh.

It’s a younger, more inexperienced field out front as Shue and Jonah Hoey are both just sophomores. Jonah nearly made the outdoor state final last year as a frosh so he’s poised to run above his age, but we don’t know quite as much about the emerging talent of Shue. David Endres completely skipped the 1:56s (and most of the 1:57s and 1:55s) with his massive PR at Ocean Breeze this season. Was that a flash in the pan or is the junior ready to join the state’s elite? Robert Dupell was #3 in the state at 400, but chose to throw his hat in the ring at the longer distance. Will that prove to be the right move? Does he have enough 800 experience to hang with this group?

But the two most important names in the gold medal hunt are Kamil Jihad and Collin Ebling. Jihad has championship pedigree. He’s run 1:52 for 800 and taken state medals in his last three trips to states for track. He’s also coming off an impressive XC season that included a surprising (to me at least) state medal at Hershey. It seems like he has more strength than in year’s past and he’s very confident in his ability to close. Plus, I think Jihad has been kicking himself for almost a year after just barely missing out on state gold in AA at 800 last spring. He’s ready for this chance at redemption.

Ebling is a wild card, but a wild card who has proven himself. He was excellent last year in District 11 at both 800 and 1600 (where he made states), but couldn’t put it together in Shippensburg to make the final. He’s taken gradual consistent steps forward this year, winning a key race at Kevin Dare and also showing real strength at the over distance with a top flight mile result and a great 1k. He seems hyper focused on this race and poised for an upset.

Predictions

Although I floated out the Tom Mallon comparison, I think this Hoey performance is more likely to be reminiscent of Sam Ritz in 2015. Ritz won the mile with a blazing 4:09 and then doubled back to run 1:51 in the 800. That kind of time wins almost every year-he just ran into the best 800 guy we’ve ever seen in John Lewis. Ritz was strong and fast and that’s how I see Hoey being for this race. He’s not a lock, but I think he gets the job done.

As for the race behind him? I’ve got no idea. I think any combination of guys could fill out the medal stand with basically everybody in the field looking dangerous. Keep a good eye on Heat 2. They could steal the show.

1. Josh Hoey 1:52.96

2. Jihad 1:53.88

3. Sauer 1:54.85

4. Zatlin 1:55.57

5. Jonah Hoey 1:55.62

6. Ebling 1:55.73

7. Eissler 1:55.81

8. Curry 1:56.50

2018 Indoor State Championship Preview: 3,000m

3,000m

The Stage

Rusty Kujdych of Neshaminy will enter the 3,000 meter final as perhaps a bigger favorite than even Josh Hoey. Rusty was the runner-up in this race a year ago, only denied the title by a fierce close from Nate Henderson. It’s Kujdych’s third straight year in the event and he’s hoping the third time will be the charm. Rusty is set to get his biggest challenge from a couple small school guys that don’t typically get a shot at Goliath. Tristan Forsythe of Winchester Thurston and Brendan Miller of Upper Dauphin, the top two runners from A XC States, will look to take down Rusty alongside 9 other distance talents.

The Field

Ian Miller, Manheim Township 8:57.42

Peter Borger, Malvern Prep 8:56.23

Kyle Burke, Abington Heights 8:56.08

Jason Cornelison, Cheltenham 8:55.95

Tyler Rollins, DT West 8:55.29

Patrick Theveny, Penncrest 8:54.38

Chayce Macknair, Mifflin County 8:53.12

Spencer Smucker, Henderson 8:51.10

Brenden Miller, Upper Dauphin 8:49.95

Mitchell Etter, State College 8:48.57

Tristan Forsythe, Winchester Thurston 8:40.19

Rusty Kujdych, Neshaminy 8:38.71

As mentioned, Kujdych comes in with impressive credentials. He’s got the best PR and the best SB. That goes for the 3200 and the 3k. He’s the reigning XC state champ, a Footlocker finalist and top returner from this race and last spring’s 3200. Plus he’s run the fastest mile of anybody in this field in 2018, running 4:15 earlier at Ocean Breeze. The guy has a killer resume.

But, as I’ve typed too many times to count, the races aren’t won on paper. Tristan Forsythe is taking a bit of a risk in this event, attempting the 3,000 instead of his usual distance, the mile. Forsythe dropped an impressive PR this indoor season with a 9:15 for 3200 at SPIRE. For qualifying purposes, that’s converted to 8:40, but realistically it’s worth faster than that. He skipped the mile (where he won a state championship last spring) to focus on the longer event. Of course, he’s fresh off a state championship in XC from the fall so it’s not like he won’t have some experience. I actually really like the move. It puts some pressure on Rusty and, if he can hold on for the kick, he will be dangerous.

I’m very high on Brendan Miller of Upper Dauphin. For what it’s worth, he’s already run two 3ks on this track, including an 8:49 win at Kevin Dare. Miller ran 15:40 for XC and has stretched himself with some big races this indoor season (after having a nonexistent indoor campaign last year). I just think the guy is a big talent who races fearlessly. He’ll go after Rusty and see what happens. Of course Mitchell Etter of State College just knocked off Miller in their most recent 3k duel, dropping a new PR of 8:48. Etter will also be very familiar with what is essentially a home track advantage. Chayce Macknair, the third member of this mid-state triumvirate, is also racing close to home. He clocked an 8:53 personal best to get to this state meet last week and will now look to add a second straight state medal to his collection after a clutch run at Hershey this fall.

Somehow Spencer Smucker seems to have skated under the radar this indoor season. He’s dropped an indoor mile PR and an indoor 3k PR. He’s proven he can run clutch at states, anchoring Henderson to a state medal in the DMR last winter. He’s got 4 XC state medals and he’s fresh off an appearance at nationals. Plus, he’s never had the chance to mix it up individually. This race is 4 years in the making for him. The Henderson senior has all the tools to finish in the top 3 in this race.

The rest of the field is a bit more unknown. Ian Miller, Peter Borger, Kyle Burke, Jason Cornelison, Tyler Rollins and Patrick Theveny aren’t exactly household names, but they are huge talents. They will all be gunning for their first state medals and, for some, this is their first ever state track race. Theveny is just a sophomore and, although he has the fastest seed of the bunch, will have to prove he can handle a stage that usually overwhelms younger runners. He’s had a monster indoors, but this will be a huge test. Borger is doubling off the mile, but his high upside. Burke won at the Carnival and is a fearless runner who has learned from his battles with Tyler Wirth what it takes to be at the top of the state. Miller has run a lot of 3ks/32s this year which can sometimes tire you out, but also makes you very experienced in the event, ready to finally have things click. He’s lived under 9 minutes this year.

Rollins and Cornelison seem like the most dangerous names. Cornelison has been awesome this year and is really underrated. I can’t help but come back to the Will Griffen district performance a year ago and think big things could be in play. Meanwhile, Rollins is a massive talent. He has a sub 15:40 5k best, comes from a great program and is not coming out of left field as a senior. He was a sub 9:30 guy a year ago at 3200.

Prediction

I think Rusty wins this one. I picked against him in the fall and got burned so I won’t do that again. This feels a lot like Henderson a year ago-a guy due for a state title on the track with all the tools to make it happen. I’d love to see someone make him work (Forsythe in a kick? Miller hanging around and making a late surge?), but I think Rusty will be all alone, potentially gunning for a record. Keep an eye out for sub 8:30 (unless he wants to save it for the DMR). Personally, I think the battle for 2^nd-3^rd-4^th will be the closest it’s been in a while.

1.      Kujdych 8:30.88

2.      Miller 8:37.65

3.      Forsythe 8:41.09

4.      Smucker 8:44.71

5.      Cornelison 8:46.23

6.      Etter 8:46.99

7.      Burke 8:49.30

8.      Theveny 8:51.04

2018 Indoor State Championship Preview: Mile

Mile

The Scene

A year ago, Noah Affolder raced to an impressive win in this event, doubling off the 4x8 to win with a 4:15.21. Right behind him were three juniors-Liam Conway, Tristan Forsythe and Evan Addison. Conway and Addison are back to chase the title this year (Forsythe in the 3k) but, perhaps surprisingly, both guys will enter the meet as big underdogs. Josh Hoey of Bishop Shanahan is the favorite after running a near state record 4:07.42 to win at the Millrose Games. Hoey is looking to pull off the Mile-800 double, a truly rare achievement. Although he’s a clear favorite, Hoey can’t sit back as his competition will not give him anything easy.

Let’s breakdown both heats of the Mile.

Heat 1

Connor Shields, Warwick 4:34.28

Nathan Grucelski, Conestoga Valley 4:33.68

Jack Miller, Jenkintown 4:32.72

Peter Borger, Malvern Prep 4:32.30

Davis Piercy, Kennett 4:31.89

Gordon Pollock, Winchester Thurston 4:31.61

Connor Volk-Klos, Seneca Valley 4:30.38

Patrick Anderson, Mount Lebanon 4:30.27

Aiden Tomov, Haverford 4:30.27

Elias Lindgren, Episcopal 4:29.92

As was discussed, a few surprising scratches opened the door for some guys outside the state qualifying standard to get into the field. The big beneficiaries came from District 3 as Connor Shields of Warwick (outside the top 50 by time) and Nathan Grucelski of Conestoga Valley snuck in with 4:33 and 4:34 seeds. But don’t let those times fool you-these guys can run. Shields as a low 4:20s PB and has good 800 speed. He can hang in a faster race and he can kick off a slower pace. He’s going to be a dangerous medal contender. Meanwhile, Grucelski was a winner against a deep field at the PTFCA Carnival this season (one of the best meets in the state) so he knows how to win. Grucelski hasn’t had the same week in and week out opportunities to run fast that his competitors have on the east coast, but when he gets the chance to shine he does. Watch for one of these guys to finish top 10 in the final standings.

I’ve been a big Aiden Tomov fan so far this season as the Haverford junior has also proven he can run well in big races. He’s been at 4:30 twice this year and also beat some big names in a TFCAofGP association meet gold medal run earlier in the season. He’s got good speed as well, helped by some strong training partners at 800. He could make noise. I also wouldn’t rule out a big day from Jenkintown’s Jack Miller. This guy’s last two XC states runs were incredibly clutch. He was the top soph in the state just missing the top 10 and then he nearly caught Brendan Miller for the silver this season. He’s got the strength and I think he can win this heat if he has his day.

We will also see a great rivalry match-up between Peter Borger and Elias Lindgren. The best two runners in the Independent League this season will go head to head in an epic battle. Borger has great strength (he’s qualified in the 3k as well), but Lindgren has had his number in recent face-offs. Let’s see if Borger can get some revenge for the Independent League XC title and if these two runner’s competitive fire carries over to the rest of the field. The winner of this race will likely need a time near 4:24-4:25 to get into the medals.

The western names really draw my attention. Gordon Pollock obviously has some good training partners at Winchester Thurston and he has gathered some nice big meet experience the last two seasons at XC and outdoor. Forsythe won the slow heat two years ago and that led to a state medal for him, maybe Pollock uses a page from that playbook? Connor Volk-Klos is not on Seneca Valley’s awesome DMR, but is a 4:30 miler. Holy cow, speaks to how good that squad is, but also means you shouldn’t underestimate Volk-Klos. He comes from a program that knows how to do big things. But Patrick Anderson of Lebo is my guy to watch. They too have a deep team (their 4x8 is competing) and he emerged a little bit out of nowhere at TSTCA’s to make states. He was an XC medalist after one of the clutchest home stretches in the state. I think Anderson is your winner in Heat 1 and a state medal candidate.

By the way, now that I’ve failed to mention him you can bet Davis Piercy is going to have a big day. He’s had a consistent season, been successful at the longer and shorter stuff and represents a Kennett team who has produced strong distance runners of late (Austin Maxwell most recently).

Heat 2

Charlie Herrmann, Lower Merion 4:29.64

Will Merhige, Haverford School 4:29.06

Cameron Binda, Greensburg Salem 4:28.83

Brett Brady, Butler 4:26.59

Mark Brown, Greensburg Salem 4:25.40

Tyler Wirth, Wallenpaupack 4:24.11

Evan Addison, LaSalle 4:17.08

Noah Beveridge, Butler 4:16.40

Liam Conway, Owen J Roberts 4:15.33

Josh Hoey, Bishop Shanahan 4:07.42

This should be a compelling battle. Yes, Hoey is a big favorite and with a 4:07 best and 1:51 800 speed in his back pocket, it’s hard to see the Bishop Shanahan senior being toppled. Josh in the defending 800 state champ and was the runner up in the mile two years ago as a sophomore (to his brother). It’s possible that Hoey will enter this race doubling off the 4x8, complicating the picture, but I’d be very surprised to see him on that relay. I think he enters this race fresh.

Of course, fresh doesn’t mean you will be going all out. Hoey will have the 800 in at least the back of his mind as he contemplates the double. I’d imagine he’s going to keep things under control until he absolutely needs to take over with his kick. That’s a strategy that’s worked out fine for him so far, but it does potentially leave you vulnerable to an upset if someone else gets a good jump or you get boxed in.

The guy most likely to pull the upset in the kicking scenario may be Liam Conway. The Owen J Roberts senior was second a year ago (with a big kick) and also picked up the bronze outdoors in the 1600 (with a big kick). He always seems to be coming on blazing fast at the end, but maybe he starts his kick a tiny bit too late. If he’s figured out how to time it right, he can steal this race. This past fall was the most confident and consistent Conway we’ve seen which is scary considering he won two state medals a year ago.

The other two primary contenders are Noah Beveridge and Evan Addison. As mentioned, Addison was a state medalist last year. He dropped a 4:17 already this year and the kid was absolutely flying on his 4x800 leg at Meet of Champs. Evan isn’t afraid to set a fast pace and he could potentially throw a wrench into the kickers strategy in the state final. By the way, he too is coming off a monster XC season that included a marquee victory at Carlisle. Meanwhile, Beveridge is a bit of a newcomer. He’s been a 3k-32 kinda guy in the big meets (backed up by his XC prowess) but he does have speed to unleash. He split a 1:54ish mark last spring and he’s PRed in the mile this year with a 4:16. Beveridge made the decision to pass on the 3k for this mile so he must be confident in his speed. At the very least, Beveridge is high on the gamer scale which gives him a chance to pull off something spectacular.

The wildcard in the title hunt is Tyler Wirth of Wallenpaupack. He was a monster during XC, holds outdoor bests under 4:20 and at 1:53 (split) and comes in with a top 5 seed. Wirth is the top junior in the field by time and we’ve seen underclassmen contend for the title each of the past two seasons.

Greensburg Salem will have a pair of runners in this race, potentially giving them an extra advantage. Mark Brown has been the faster of the duo this indoor season, but Cameron owns a 4:22 outdoor PR. Both will be dangerous in the fight for the medals. Will Mehrige is an excellent runner from the Independent League who didn’t get much love during XC. That being said, he’s been perhaps the #2 guy in the TFCAofGP mile field the last two weeks. Brett Brady of Butler dropped a big time at TSTCA, hitting 4:26. That was a wow kind of performance that hopefully brings him out of Beveridge’s shadow. He was an XC state medalist and his 4:26 earned him the confidence of the coaching staff that he could add more hardware here at PSU.

Lastly, we have Charlie Herrmann of Lower Merion. The junior was a part of an awesome LM squad last indoor season and ran the 800 leg of a medal worthy DMR. He snuck into this hot heat as the 10^th seed but will have redemption on his mind after failing to improve his seed time in an important race at Meet of Champs.

I didn’t plan on talking about every runner, but hey, these guys all gave me something to say. It’s going to be a fun meet.

Predictions

Ultimately, I think this has the potential to be a race for the ages. I’d like to see the pace stay reasonably quick, but if it lags too much, I think Hoey could be vulnerable on a perfect day for Conway. That’s what it is going to take-a perfect day from someone-if they are going to knock off the 4:07 man from Shanahan. Ultimately, I can’t bet against Hoey. He’s been unreal thus far this year and has been much more consistent than year’s past as well. That’s what really takes this thing home in my eyes.

1.      Hoey 4:14.00

2.      Conway 4:14.96

3.      Beveridge 4:16.02

4.      Addison 4:16.55

5.      Brown 4:21.17

6.      Wirth 4:22.59

7.      Anderson 4:25.42

8.      Merhige 4:25.88

No Need To Speculate Anymore

http://pa.milesplit.com/articles/233542-meet-entries-released-ptfca-indoor-state-championships

Etrain's Projected State Qualifiers

These are my estimates for who will be qualified for the state meet when you factor in scratches. Thanks to those who have provided some insights regarding the entries. I will continue to update these and edit the lists throughout the weekend until the final numbers come forth. Let me know if you have questions and I'll do my best to answer. Any updates are appreciated.

Get your entries in before the deadline and congrats on a great season for those who are all finished up!

4x800m
Mile
800m
3,000m
DMR

State College Invite – What Went Down?

As the state qualifying landscape continues to heat up, we had a pretty epic night of races at State College on Thursday night. Things started with the boys from Wyomissing in the DMR. The AA state champs have had the pieces to put together a huge run in this event, but they’ve saved it until the last possible moment. With only one team within a minute, the W boys rolled to a 10:38.07 and essentially guaranteed a spot at states (they are #5 right now with conversions). This was a really exciting result as I’ve been hoping they would chase a DMR for a while. Will be interesting to see if Cullen opts for the mile or 800 now knowing he has a 1200 leg (or a 16?) still left to come at the end of the day. I was thinking 800 before, but now I’m kinda leaning mile for him.

This meet is typically Mid Penn/D3 teams, but we got a surprise as Bishop Shanahan brought some big guns to punch the last few state tickets they needed. Going into this weekend BS didn’t have a state qualified 4x4 and defending champ Josh Hoey wasn’t qualified in the 800. With neither of those qualified for Meet of Champs, I’d already started mapping out a schedule for the Shanahan boys thinking they wouldn’t have those events as options. Whoops.

Josh Hoey stormed across the PSU track in a new indoor personal best of 1:51.49. He won by 6 seconds in a time that as recently as 2011 would have been a state record (now there’s 4 sub 1:51 guys which is wild). This opens the door for a Mile-800 double out of Hoey if he wants to chase two events. Jaxson went for that same double his senior season (and then tripled in the 4x4) which I’m starting to think may be the route Josh takes looking ahead.

By the way, that Shanahan 4x4 punched their ticket to states at this meet as well. They dropped a 3:28 to make it in and, although they won’t be in the fast heat, this relay could still be dangerous with Zink and Hoey leading the charge.

The other big event from last night was the 3,000 meters. This event was already stacked on paper and things got even tougher last night. With still two marquee meets remaining, we have 15 guys under the SQG (14 of which I think would like to run this event at states). Mitchell Etter made it so that he won’t have to sweat the action on Saturday thanks to a nice PR of 8:48. He beat Brenden Miller of Upper Dauphin (doubling off a 4:34) for an impressive win against a strong field. Miller was well under the SQG as well, but he has a sub 8:50 mark already in the bank for a seed time. Chayce Macknair of Mifflin County showed once again that he’s a clutch performer. After starting the day outside the top 20, Macknair produced a 10+ second season best and soared up to 7^th in the state. His mark of 8:53.12 should lock up a state qualifying spot barring a truly historic weekend of indoor track.

With these new events taken into account, the current state cut off times look like this:

4x800 – 8:19.76

Mile – 4:32.45

800m – 2:00.89

3,000m – 8:56.47

DMR – 10:47.86

The biggest outstanding questions (beyond who is going to run fast this weekend) center around what Shanahan’s plan is for states (with all their relay and individual potential), what Pennsbury will do with their 800 guys (double in the open 8 and take up 3 spots? Scratchard in the mile? DMR?) And will any team actually scratch a relay if they aren’t going to go all in on it? Or will they run some inferior version of the squad that got them there?

TFCAofGP MoC: A Preview

In case you guys haven’t seen, the TFCAofGP Meet of Champions entries list is officially here:

http://pa.milesplit.com/articles/233290-meet-entries-tfcaofgp-meet-of-champions

I plan to give a quick run through the entries and give some thoughts/preview the action. Like most of my posts this week, this will have a big “what does this mean for states” feel because I think that is important/interesting. However, this shouldn’t devalue the significance of this meet from a purely racing perspective. This meet is a pretty big deal, just qualifying and getting out there and racing is an honor. My Meet of Champs medalist shirt from 2010 (shout out to Sam Ellison for carrying us) is one of my most prized possessions. I’ve worn it so much it’s got some pretty sizable holes in it and I can’t really wear it out in public. But I’m not throwing that away (much to my wife’s chagrin).

So I apologize if this has too much of a state slant, but hopefully that won’t have much of an impact on your ability to enjoy the meet. Actually, hopefully nothing I ever say has any sort of negative impact on anything in your life whatsoever. I shouldn’t be important enough for that.

DMR

So lots of good news here – only 14 teams entered this event which means we won’t have to split this race into two heats. That means that the top teams can battle head to head for a spot in the state championships. On the entry list, we have the three best eastern DMRs in the state in Shanahan, CB West and LaSalle. For Shanahan, I don’t know if we see their full “A” squad, but they aren’t entered anywhere else so if they were going to pick a spot this would be it. Maybe we see their non-Hoey guys in there competing for a spot at states on the 4x8 or DMR if Shanahan decides not to push all their chips in on the relays (which I’m guessing they will not want to do considering their individual potential).

CB West has lots of key guys entered in the individual events (most notably Brian Baker in the mile). They’ve got a deep team so we could see anything from complete “B” squad to title contenders out of this squad. I’m guessing they rest at least Baker, Fehrman and Bunch (Fehrman is also entered in the 4 and the 8, Bunch the 3k). LaSalle is crazy deep and has plenty of options for this race. Their state spot is secure, but they don’t really need to push it in other events either. I think they are pretty comfortable with what they have besides some lesser known bubble guys who could sneak into states this weekend. Again, we could see a “B” squad with what would be “A” squad guys on most teams like Pumilia or we could see the “A” team in all its glory. I feel like maybe an Addison 1200 leg and Twomey 1600 leg is coming but no guarantees.

The second tier group is the intrigued one to me. This includes Neshaminy, CR North, CB East, DT West, Penncrest, Great Valley and Boyertown. You can throw Abington in there because their “A” squad is good enough to compete with these teams, but I’m speculating they will keep Mitchell and Coleman fresh for the 800 instead.

This group is basically the state qualifying bubble. It’s #6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17 and 20 in the state as of this moment. I gotta imagine some of these teams really want a big race in this event. CR North, a consistent contender with a 3 XC state medalists, should be a big factor in this race. I think they will be looking for a big time and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them win with a low 10:30s kind of mark. Their XC rivals from DT West also could use a big result as they are 11^th right now in the standings. They showed really good speed with their sub 8:10 4x8 and they’ve gone a proven ace in Tyler Rollins.

CB East is a fun team. This squad is loaded on paper and have a breakout star in David Endres. Their also really deep, with a plethora of runners to pick from near the 2 minute barrier. It would be cool to see Endres on the 12 and Bardwell on the 16 as a slight order change, but East would also benefit from more competition for Endres on the anchor leg (a factor they didn’t have going for them when they ran 10:49 last week). Penncrest is one of my favorite squads on paper as well. They are really dangerous in the right race. It tentatively appears they will chase a fast mark here, although Lederer and Theveny are slated to run the mile very soon after this race so who knows. They are 13^th for now so the only way to get in for this event is to run fast at MoCs.

I’ve been on the Boyertown bandwagon in this event since the early season. I could see a state medal from them at PSU. They likely have clinched a 4x8 spot already so that may be enough to sit back on, but I think they have big upside here. Great Valley shouldn’t be overlooked either. Brett Zatlin is going all in to try and help his DMR advance to states with no individual events on his program. He ran the 1200 at Yale and set them up for their 10:51, but the young guys on the squad had to bring it home. A Zatlin-Endres-Addison 1200 leg would be awesome (let’s throw in Earley and Baker and a Hoey too).

Not positive Neshaminy will go all in on the DMR again. It would be fun to see Rusty chasing guys (he could run down half the field and win this thing on the anchor), but they are more than likely guaranteed a spot at states regardless. A little surprised that teams like Haverford, Twin Valley, Pennsbury and CR South scratched, but that clears the way for a one heat final so I appreciate that.

Lastly, Jenkintown hasn’t thrown down a big mark, but they definitely could. If they load up the relay, watch for this team as a sleeper to dip down near 10:50.

Mile

Brian Baker has spent this year becoming a superstar. The kid ran a 1:57.00 800 to win at Lehigh on February 3^rd and then blasted a meet record 4:21 last Friday. The record used to belong to Jake Brophy so yes it is a big deal. Baker enters this mile as a comfortable favorite. Maybe he’s going to chase the school record in the event before loading up on relays at states (my tentative guess) so we could see a sub 4:20 mark if the competition is there.

With Kujdych and Eissler as scratches, Charlie Herrmann of Lower Merion and Jed Scratchard of Pennsbury have the two next fastest season bests in the field. However, based on fastest association time, Will Merhige of the Haverford School looks like he will be the #2 seed. Can any of those guys push Baker to a PR? Scratchard would be my personal pick (his season best is from back in December) and he’s fresh and ready to roll.

With Pennsbury scratching the DMR at this meet and loading up the individuals, there’s a chance they may do individual events at states as well (after the 4x8, skipping the DMR). A 4:24 kind of time for Scratchard would make him a medal contender. Meanwhile, Hermman and Merhige are likely already into the state meet when you consider scratches, but they could maybe even jump into the fast heat at states with a big run. At the very least, they have a chance to boost their confidence before the big dance.

Ethan Koza, Avery Lederer and Ryan Campbell were top 15 guys in the state during XC. All three of them may be doubling when they hit the track of the mile (with the DMR first), but all three of them have the talent and pedigree to produce an impressive result.

Some sleepers? I like Aiden Tomov of Haverford as a potential surprise. He’s run 4:30 at Ocean Breeze and has thrown down some impressive association marks on the flat track. I also like Cheltenham’s Jason Cornelison. He’s had big success at the 2 mile distance and I think he has the strength to mix it up with the big names in this field.

Some state meet bubble contenders include Elias Lindgren (#17 after scratches on my list), Jake Robinson (#21) and Dominic Derafelo (#23).

800m

This event should be loaded. The always formidable Kamil Jihad is in this one. The aforementioned Brian Baker is competing. Evan Addison (4:17-1:58) is entered. Hudson Delisle (3^rd place at last year’s state meet) is slated to compete. In fact, of the top times in the TFCAofGP, 8 of the top 9 guys are slated to compete. It’s loaded. Sometimes, that makes for a crowded fast heat (especially if the pace lags early) which could open the door for a surprise result. In which case, keep an eye on one of the slower heats.

Depending on how may they choose to fit in a heat (my guess is two of 9 and two of 8 but who knows), you could see Pennsbury’s Javier Linares (a 1:57 open guy) help set a fast pace for his heat mates much like he did at Ocean Breeze (I believe he set the pace in the race where David Endres dropped his mammoth 1:55.00). 

There’s plenty of state meet bubble guys in this race so those guys will certainly appreciate a fast pace. Collin Ochs of CR South is my first guy out while Talus Gaymore of Penn Wood is my second to last guy in. Those guys are both entered along with Jarnail Dhillon (#21), Dylan Servis (#19) and Jarrett Zelinsky (#18). Keep an eye on the Haverford duo of Campbell and McCallion. Both of those guys could pop off a big race and surprise down near 2 minutes. Sam Earley is another name that could well exceed his seed time.

The extra drama with this loaded field revolves around the fast heat at states. They will only take the top 8 in the fast heat of the 800 which makes for little margin for error for the top seeds. As of right now it would take somewhere between 1:57.2 and 1:57.7 to get in the top 8 (flat track). That puts pressure on Matt Eissler of Pennridge and Delisle of Quakertown who are my #10 and #17 as of now. Lamaj Curry of Chester is #13. If any of those guys surprise, they could into the fast heat with a big win.

3,000m

Unsurprisingly, the 3k is going to be a barn burner this year. As of now, I’m projecting the cut off at 8:58.22 flat track. Only one guy in this field has bested that time and, oh by the way, it’s Rusty Kujdych the state #1. Behind him is a set of wildcards. Ben Bunch was nearly a state qualifier last year and comes in with a 9:04 best (#3 seed). Jack Miller was third at XC states in A and ran sub 15:50 at Paul Short this year. He’s broken 9 and has big incentive for a fast time as he’s currently slated to be first guy out at states.

Peter Borger of Malvern Prep passed on the mile to go all in on the 3k. He definitely could close out this race under 9 minutes. Tyler Rollins and Payton Sewall are both proven talents with converted times at 9 flat and 9:01 (for longer distances). If either of those guys dips under 9 minutes it wouldn’t be surprising to most considering their resumes. LaSalle’s always deep contingent will make a push, led by Bradden Koors and Ethan Maher who were the 2-3 for the state champs at Hershey.

Andrew Malmstrom and Noah Demis don’t have flashy times to date, but they were two monster XC guys who ran very clutch at states out at Hershey. That clutch gene will be needed again to emerge from the sleeper cop and punch a ticket to states. Sean Rahill of William Tennent has qualified in the past and also owns a top 50 finish at XC states.

The biggest sleeper may be Wissahickon’s Matt Maiale. He’s had a phenomenal season to date, showing great range from 800 up to the 2 mile. His time at Ocean Breeze nearly got him into states, but he will need to duplicate that effort (and then some) to get to PSU. The way he’s raced so far this winter, I think he can do it.

However, for all of these guys, nothing is guaranteed. The 3k is a really tricky event and sometimes it’s just not your day. However, having Rusty Kujdych as a pacemaker should help. Rusty won’t play games and he’ll drag the pace out fast. That means everyone should have at least one guy to shoot at. Kujdych is expected to smash the meet record of 8:47 set by Dustin Wilson in 2012 (assuming he wants to go hard). His best this season is under 8:40.

4x800m

The 4x8 is at the end of a busy day at the Meet of Champions, so it’s anyone’s guess who will leave with the title. I still remember the 2013 championships where Upper Darby, from the slow heat, knocked off a tired Bensalem squad to win the MoCs. Bensalem went on to win states the next weekend and Darby, unfortunately, didn’t medal which goes to show you this event can be wild.

We will likely see lots of doubling guys on the line from schools like CR South (8:03 best but all their relay guys are running individual events), Haverford (big potential based on season’s best with doubling Tomov, Campbell and McCallion), Pennsbury and CB West (if they even want to do this double/triple). And, yes, I’m definitely missing some others like Abington, Boyertown, LaSalle, Radnor and Penncrest but this list is getting really long.

But we will see some fresh squads as well. CB South and Bensalem appear to be gearing up specifically for this race. Bensalem is 17^th out of 18 state qualifiers and could use some extra time. CB South is 21^st but looked great at the last chance meet with a season’s best 8:25. As I just touched on my last 12 years post, CB South has some history when it comes to the 4x8.

Those two will be bubble contenders, but I also think you can’t count out Twin Valley, Holy Ghost Prep or Penncrest to make noise. Penncrest is currently #19. And, hey, it would be silly to overlook a titan of the 4x8 in North Penn.

All that being said, I think the two most dangerous teams in this race may be Pennridge and CB East. Pennridge will seemingly be pretty fresh beyond Eissler and will have a chance to recruit the junior to the “A” squad for states with a big win. CB East seems to only be doubling with the DMR and, honestly, they could bring some fresh guys off the bench for the 4x8 who would be equally formidable. I’m jumping on the CB East bandwagon now before it gets too crowded.

For the record, don’t be surprised if LaSalle wins this. Historically, they like to chase the 4x8 at this meet. That may have changed by 2018, but I think they really chase a big mark in this event and try to make a statement. If you look, you’ll see they’ve got the meet record from 2012 at under 8 minutes.