2018 State Previews: AAA 4x800m

AAA 4x800m

The Stage

The defending champions from CB West will look to repeat as gold medal winners in this event after claiming the District One title this past weekend. Making things more interesting – West got that District victory without the guy who anchored them to the 2017 championship, Jake Claricurzio, as the senior was kept fresh for the open 800 according to the Penntrack twitter feed. West won’t have that conflict of interest to worry about at states as Claricurzio and Brian Baker both scratched from the open event to focus on the relay(s).

If CB West wins the gold medals this spring, it will be the first time we’ve seen back to back champions in this event since North Penn did it in 2007-2008. Other squads have come close including, ironically, State College who CB West narrowly edged out in last year’s final.

There are a long list of teams hoping to unseat West including, oh man another ironic twist, a long list of teams from the West. Five teams cracked 8 minutes at the WPIAL championships meaning the district is responsible for five of the top 10 seeds. Seneca Valley, the indoor state champions in the DMR over CB West, won the district title in the 7.

The Prelims

In case you skipped the AA posts, there will be two preliminary heats on Friday from which 12 teams will be selected for Saturday’s final. The qualifiers are selected as follows: top 4 places in each heat plus the next four fastest times overall. As of the typing of this post, I have yet to see Heat Sheets which, normally, isn’t a big deal as they typically just snake the seeds. However, it looks like they let 6 automatics from District 3 in this year (listed online as 5) and I’m not sure if that’s intentional or not so that could affect the seedings if they take somebody out.

Another interesting wrinkle with respect to the prelims is the lack of a District One presence. The last four seasons there have been 6, 6, 7 and 7 District One teams in the state finals for the 4x8, accounting for 23 of the 32 state medals handed out during that span. However, this year we only saw 5 teams get through the slop at Coatesville which means there will be some new blood in the state championship final. That’s good news for qualifiers from small districts like Parkland (D11) and LaSalle (D12).

Despite that advantage, I think the West ends up picking up the slack and sending through a crop of it’s own squads to the state final. Here’s what I think the top 12 will be: Seneca Valley, Butler, Ephrata, CB West, Pennridge, Mifflin County, Mount Lebanon, North Allegheny, CB East, Boyertown, State College, Haverford.

Assuming I’m mapping out the heats correctly, the second heat is going to be absolutely stacked. My top 12 has eight teams from that heat and it doesn’t even count some of my D3 sleepers like Cumberland Valley and Twin Valley. Meanwhile, in the other heat you have someone like Butler among the top seeds, but it’s not necessarily guaranteed their best runner in Noah Beveridge will be featured in the line-up as he has some serious individual title aspirations in the 3200 the next morning.

LaSalle was left out of my top 12, but they would be a very interesting team. We won’t see Addison or Twomey in the prelims (they’ve got the 16), but if, hypothetically, this deep team can find a spot in the finals and one of their individual pieces falters, they can make a swap and add another lethal piece to the puzzle. They and Indiana are my two biggest sleepers that I left out of the prelims. I’m also intrigued a lot by Parkland who has two full blown stars in Morgan and Ringer.

The Finals

On paper, this race seems like CB West’s to lose. They are the defending champions from last outdoors. They are the defending champions from this past indoors. They’ve got three legs back from the squad that ran 7:40 last year and a deep crop of guys to pick from to fill the remaining slots. West is deep enough they can even rest one of their top guys in the prelims to keep fresher for the finals. They are the only squad who has three legs with the ability to go 1:54 or better and Claricurzio looks more and more like his state champion form with every week. It’s definitely the safe pick.

That being said I’ve taken a good hard look at three other competitors. First is Seneca Valley. The WPIAL champs ran 7:46 last year and return all four legs from that squad. Since that race, Seth Ketler has taken massive strides forward and developed into an individual qualifier at 800 as well as a top 10 guy during XC. They seem to be a bit more distance based than the CB West boys who have monster raw speed, but this team is ultra-talented. That indoor DMR win said a lot about what this team was ready for this spring and, because they have barely contested the 4x8, I think we haven’t come close to seeing their potential. Expect them to contend for gold.

I’ve made no secret about the fact that I expect Pennridge to compete for gold. After the Rams topped CB West at their home invite, I thought Pennridge was ready to claim the throne. However, since that time West has gotten them back at both leagues and districts. Still, I think Pennridge is going to rock the state championships. If they can keep Matt Eissler close for the finish, he’s got a great chance to match any of the other anchors in this field. Anderson Dimon, the 48 second 400 star, could be an x-factor if featured, but they will need Luke Eissler and Brashear to give them 1:56ish legs or better to make sure West doesn’t pull ahead. I feel like the Rams tend to peak almost perfectly for states and that 7:40 from a few years back is still ringing around in my head. If they are healthy and all-in on this relay, I still believe they can win it.

Then there’s Ephrata. While I’ve been focusing on the D1 and D7 depth, Ephrata has been quietly dominating the competition in the middle of those two districts. They absolutely rolled through the D3 championships, were the top 4x8 at Penn Relays and, oh by the way, they have the fastest individual leg of the bunch. Tyler Shue, who split a 1:52 lead off at Penn Relays, may be just a soph, but he’s an absolute beast in the 800. The kid honestly reminds me of Tom Mallon which (for those of you who are old like me) is high praise. Mallon won 3 straight titles in the 800 from 2008 to 2010. It looks like they’ve transitioned Shue from lead to anchor as well, which is another interesting variable.

But the key to an Ephrata victory won’t be Shue. The more interesting guys to me are Morales and particularly Andrew Foster. Morales has been excelling in the open 8 (clocked a 1:56 at districts) and Foster has been a force in the longer stuff (he won the District title in the 3200). He gave up a realistic medal chance in the open 32 so that he could ride with his relay compatriots and they will without a doubt need a fast split from him if they are going compete for gold.

Those are the big four in my eyes. I’d be surprised about anyone outside that core four leaving with the state gold. I like what I’ve seen from Butler, but there’s too much up in the air with Beveridge and the 32-4x8 double. They could steal grab some medals, but I don’t see them mixing it up with these low 7:40 type squads. I like CB East’s upside. I’m intrigued to see how they handle the moment. David Endres is their best leg, but guys like Motter and Bardwell will likely dictate the team’s success. The District 6 teams have a legacy of big performances, particularly State College. Mifflin County has been the better team to date and they have two bigger stars (Seth Phillips and Chase Macknair), but SC may be a bit more balanced. We will see if that State College magic is still floating around on the Shippensburg track.

My #1 sleeper pick, though, is Mount Lebanon. Brandenstein and Everhart are both 1:56 guys in the open and then they have another two sub 2 guys along side them. Patrick Anderson has been racing like a man possessed lately as he crushed the 1600 at WPIALs. They may be the best shot at matching the depth of CB West through 4 legs, but they will need to prove they have the firepower to stick around on the anchor. We were robbed of seeing this fall’s Lebo squad at states. Now that we’ve got their spring distance relay here, let’s see what they can do with this opportunity.

When the dust settles, here’s what I think the results will show:

8. North Allegheny 7:51.85

7. CB East 7:50.56

6. Mifflin County 7:49.75

5. Mount Lebanon 7:46.04

4. Ephrata 7:45.49

3. Seneca Valley 7:43.22

2. CB West 7:41.98

1. Pennridge 7:41.15