I'm writing out all the names of the squads selected in the below state championship predictions post. Feel free to continue to make predictions until 3/1 at hits at 12:00 AM, then I will ask that we close the predictions. I will be out all day at the Centennial Conference Championships tomorrow so feel free to use this post's comment sections to give updates on the State Meet for those who can not be there. Just remember to keep all comments civil because I will not be checking.
So anyway, here are the summarized predictions. If I missed someone or messed up the names let me know!
PS I'm sorry I didn't make this clear initially, but if you select "Other" for the mile or 800m please give me a specific name. So unless those who picked "Other" choose a specific name to go along with it, I can't count the pick in the interest of fairness. If you have questions let me know.
Also it is my understanding that mile information on Penntrack was incorrect and that Liam Galligan should have been entered in the mile in Paul Power's spot. So if you picked Power in the mile, you may want to consider changing it (or you can leave it as a high upside pick).
RJJL back at it again! His score of 40 was #1 in the contest!
1. RJJL: 40
2. George Munro: 39
3. D6 Legend: 38
3. DirtWolf: 38
5. 3V: 37
6. GBC: 36
3V: 37
Kevin James: 8
Sam Webb: 6
Elias Graca: 8
CB West (4x800m): 5
O'Hara (DMR): 10
AL16: 22
Kevin James: 8
Hunter Wharrey: 3
Dylan Eddinger: 2
Brad Foust
CB West (4x800m): 5
DT West (DMR): 4
Other (Mile)**
Bluebird: 31
Sam Ritz (Mile): 10
John Lewis: 10
Brian Hackman
Paul Power: 2
State College (4x800m): 6
Malvern Prep (DMR): 3
Bmoc: 32
Billy McDevitt: 5
John Lewis: 10
Brad Foust
Alex Knapp
Paul Power: 2
Germantown Friends (DMR): 5
Pennsbury (4x800m): 10
Team Cheap: 26
Paul Power: 2
Colin Abert
Matt McGoey: 10
Jake Brophy: 4
Alek Sauer: 5
Germantown Friends (DMR): 5
CR North (DMR)
CM1: 27
Conestoga (DMR): 8
Germantown Friends (DMR): 5
West Chester Henderson (DMR)
Brett Wolfinger
Nick Wagner
Kevin James: 8
Sam Webb: 6
Colin Abert
Alex Knapp
Other (Mile)**
Other (800m)**
D6 Legend: 38
Sam Ritz (Mile): 10
Kevin James: 8
Dominic Hockenbury: 8
Paul Power: 2
Alex Knapp
Kamil Jihad
O'Hara (DMR): 10
DirtWolf: 38
Sam Ritz (Mile): 10
Billy McDevitt: 5
John Lewis: 10
Casey Comber: 6
LaSalle (4x800m): 2
Germantown Friends (DMR): 5
False Start: 20
Billy McDevitt: 5
Eric Diestelow
Scott Seel
Dylan Eddinger: 2
Matt Wisner: 4
Brad Foust
Kevin Hong
Hunter Wharrey: 3
State College (4x800m): 6
Council Rock North (DMR)
GBC: 36
Billy McDevitt: 5
John Lewis: 10
Aaron Gebhart: 5
Matt McGoey: 10
St. Joe's Prep (DMR): 6
Strath Haven (4x800m)
GENELE: 24
Sam Webb: 6
Kyle Shinn: 2
Eric Diestelow
Brad Foust
Brian Hackman
Matt Wisner: 4
Jack Tidball: 4
Aaron Gebhart: 5
Malvern Prep (DMR): 3
George Munro: 39
Sam Ritz (Mile): 10
John Lewis: 10
Dominic Hockenbury: 8
Aaron Gebhart: 5
St. Joe's Prep (DMR): 6
Team Hawk: 20
John Lewis: 10
Julian Degroot-Lutzner
Sam Webb: 6
Colin Abert
Alex Knapp
Paul Power: 2
Will Loevner
LaSalle (4x800m): 2
Other (800m)**
If You're Running This It's Too Late (Team Train): 32
CB West (4x800m): 5
Dominic Hockenbury: 8
Aaron Gebhart: 5
Jake Susalla
Alex Knapp
Conestoga (DMR): 6
Kevin James: 8
TEAM MOM: 26
Dylan Eddinger: 2
Sam Ritz (Mile): 10
Casey Comber: 6
Paul Power: 2
Colin Abert
Conestoga (DMR): 6
Squad MRD: 31
Dylan Eddinger: 2
Aaron Gebhart: 5
Paul Power: 2
Jack Tidball: 4
Germantown Friends (DMR): 5
Conestoga (DMR): 8
Billy McDevitt: 5
NJD: 18
Kevin James: 8
Hunter Wharrey: 3
Paul Power: 2
LaSalle (4x800m): 2
Neshaminy (4x800m)
Malvern Prep (DMR): 3
CR South (DMR)
Team ODNAN: 27
Sam Webb: 6
John Lewis: 10
Brian Hackman
Brad Foust
Paul Power: 2
State College (4x800m): 6
Altoona (4x800m): 3
West Chester Henderson (DMR)
RJJL: 40
Sam Ritz (Mile): 10
John Lewis: 10
Paul Power: 2
Pennsbury (4x800m): 10
Conestoga (DMR): 8
Team RXC: 28
Kevin James: 8
Billy McDevitt: 5
Brad Foust
Matt Wisner: 4
Colin Abert
Aaron Gebhart: 5
Alex Knapp
St. Joe's Prep (DMR): 6
Team Sam Hinkie's Pinky: 28
Jake Brophy: 4
Elias Graca: 8
Matt Wisner: 4
Brook Wilson: 1
Kamil Jihad
Colin Abert
Jake Susalla
Alex Knapp
Aaron Gebhart: 5
St. Joe's Prep: 6
Sean: 29
Sean Weidner: 1
Mike Kolor: 3
Kyle Shinn: 2
Matt Wisner: 4
Michael Strosko
Brett Wolfinger
Aaron Gebhart: 5
Paul Power: 2
State College (4x800m): 6
St. Joe's Prep (DMR): 6
Suzy W: 31
John Lewis: 10
Sam Ritz (Mile): 10
Sean Weidner: 1
State College (4x800m): 6
CB East (DMR): 1
Hunter Wharrey: 3
TKparklife: 30
Casey Comber: 6
Conestoga (DMR): 8
Kevin James: 8
Alex Knapp
Council Rock North (DMR)
Penncrest (4x800m): 8
Colin Abert
Wrong Way: 30
Kevin James: 8
Eric Diestelow
Brett Wolfinger
Colin Abert
Alex Knapp
O'Hara (DMR): 10
Conestoga (DMR): 8
DT West (DMR): 4
Other (Mile)**
Other (800m)**
The Centennial Conference: Just Three Teams, Paul Green, and Nathan Wojick
Ah the Indoor Centennial Conference Championships. So many great memories from this excellent meet. In 2011, Bobby McGetrick almost murdered me (accidentally of course) and then I blew it in the 4x8, 2012 when my Coach was so thrilled with our DMR he just stopped coaching us and put me in charge of the order, 2013 when I sucked in the DMR instead of the 4x8 just to mix it up and of course the epic 2014 meet where I made us lose to Gettysburg. Ah, memories.
But enough about me and my achievements, you didn't come here to listen to me brag. In fact unless you have attended Muhlenberg College in the last 5 years you might have stumbled here accidentally. Welcome! I hope you like the Centennial Conference! Let's get down to some previews.
5000m
This event has typically been where the class of the conference reside. Legends like Stadler, Schillit, Pecora, Hullenberg have set the conference on fire with epic 5k championships leaving the likes of the great and powerful Bock without a single Gold.
And now the favorite in the event is a dude who's nickname is "Tweedie". As "Tweedie bird". I'm not even kidding ask a Haverford dude. But hey Dave Roza is next in line for the thrown and unless a Hopkins or Dickinson dude is ready to drop a sizeable PR, this bird is going to crap all over their car. He's run well under 15, he's been clutch before and he wears the Haverford White and Black. Nuff said.
Roza is joined by an equally intriguing species in Joel Christian. PA's own from Towanda is repping random sections of the state to the finest with his recent performances. I imagine if I grew up in Towanda working on farms and what not, I probably could pass for Joel's much slower body double.
The Haverford goon squad will also be joined by Jimmy Gorman, Jeff Duncan and Charlie Hale.
As usual, Hopkins and Dickinson will provide the other 5k scorers. It's like seriously, I don't need to see a performance list. Haverford's top guy will win, Dickinson, haverford and hop get the next 3 in some order and then Dickinson, haverford hop get the other 3 in some order. There's no Drew Mackins in the 5k.
Hopkins comes in with the faster times but Dickinson comes in with the bigger balls after their clutch showing at XC nats last fall. Weinhoffer, Simmons and Stender are the top seeds for Dickinson, with Hunter Smith also expected to contend. Elias Howard will probably get last. Weinhoffer is my pick to make noise here. He's shown enough to give him 1% Bock status. High praise considering, for reference, Ghandi has 2.6% Bock status.
As for Hopkins, they throw out Kenny's mom's favorite runner Andrew Cerruzzi and the dude that Flank pushed down, Austin Stecklair. Both of these kids are legit and hold realistic shots at a top 3 finish. The problem is Hopkins goes to fast meets more often that J Leit asks questions, so, much like J Leit's aforementioned questions, it's tough to discern which times really mean something in the grand scheme of things.
If you have the misfortune of interacting with Luke Munyan, I'm sorry. I'm sure has already started babbling about the absurdity that is having two heats of a 20 man 5k. 2 heats? This isn't seriously gonna happen right? It's probably already adjusted back to 1 heat, but just for fun here is a group of things more likely to be split in two than a 20 man 5k heat:
Bobby McGetrick and Core
Charlie Kline and Cat SnapChats
Tom McGuire and too much hair
Kenny Wohl and Kirsten Kuchera
An atom
Josh Elkan and Sugar Cookies
(For the record those are in least likely to most likely order)
DMR
So first fun fact of the day, everyone finally caught on that getting 7th place in an open event is worth more than the difference between 3rd and 4th in the stupid relays. Just one year too late, eh boys. Like c'mon, that would be like Trevor Dunbar showing up to do your favorite 9 mile run a year after you graduated from Muhlenberg College AND ALL YOU GOT WAS FRICKIN ANNE KESSERLING AND A SNAP CHAT PICTURE OF HASSAN MEAD.
Yes that was an oddly specific analogy.
But anywho the good news for anyone slotted to endure the first distance event of the month of March, you are all getting at least one point for your school! Congrats Zach Lifman and Forrest Kentewell, the odds are in your favor that your contributions will be more valuable to the team than Josh Elkan, Cody Geyer, Stephen Sroka and John Marrero combined in the open events!
In all seriousness, what the heck happened here? Where's all the good dudes? F&M could potentially be pulling some "maybe we should try to win both relays instead of just one?" crap, but c'mon, realistically this is probably Vallachio/Generali, Johnson and Michael Whalen (side note, if that is the case is Alex Weiner advising the F&M coach? because Whalen would be slotted for the DMR, open mile, open 8 and the open casket I fell into during the last mile of XC conferences Junior year, conveniently located a few yards away outside).
EDIT: I've now seen a performance list that includes names on the relay entries. F&M IS planning to load up the DMR and win both relays! How about that!
EDIT: I've now seen a performance list that includes names on the relay entries. F&M IS planning to load up the DMR and win both relays! How about that!
Even Haverford who usually spares a 4:20 something kid to help bring home Gold has said, nah we'd rather have Sam Fujimori try and get 8th.
EDIT #2: Turns out they are sparing Soren Rasumussen! Wrong again!
EDIT #2: Turns out they are sparing Soren Rasumussen! Wrong again!
Like seriously, this might be the year Swat finally gets a relay gold and it's the year THEY WEREN'T EVEN TRYING TO. I actually like their potential Branch, Arbuckle Sullivan line up and I think it's just as good, if not better than the crop of 4:30 something dudes Haverford, Dickinson and Hop appear to be throwing out there.
EDIT #3: Yeah, Swat isn't getting gold. But still they are closer to the medals than ever.
McDaniel, in class McDaniel fashion, has decided to say screw it to their best ever shot at a DMR medal in favor of Heilman getting 10th and Chris Jones playing rabbit to the middle heat of the 800m (like last year). Not their fault of course, it's hard to predict this sort of rapid change of opinion.
It looks like Gettysburg is content to let Wojick anchor the squad and give Rausch fresh legs for the open (also no Jackson Davis but Horvath running the 12?). Funny considering their DMR was kinda sneaky good, but losing Taber really stings. Gosh did I just write a paragraph about Gettysburg and not make fun of Horvath and Taber's hair and acknowledge Ryan Rausch by name? I've got time, I'll get em later.
The Mules somehow are in position to legitimately compete for 5th in the DMR. I can't imagine them finishing lower than 7th (Sorry Ursinus I've been trying to play nice) and if F&M is declining to enter the triplets in anything before 4 o'clock, the mules could/should mix it up with the Dips (no seriously that's their team name) and Bullets. Heck things look so good, I wouldn't be surprised if Forrest is talking gold medals.
EDIT #4: Yeah screw that thing about beating F&M, the triplets are all in on the relays!
The key will, naturally, be Zach Lifman. Luke Munyan is actually a kinda respectable miler, but he tends to go out a little bit over his head (which I guess isn't say much because he's 5 foot 4). Lifman's gonna need to keep it close (i.e. Don't run 2:20 bro). Either that or hope Kenny blows up worse than the Armory and everyone forgets about you.
Welcome to the conference meet bud, no pressure!
Mile
I can't wait for this race. Marquardt vs Carey in the first thrilling match up in this event since ... Wait, what? Carey's running the 400m instead of facing Marquardt in the mile?
Yeah, I'm real pissed about that. Who are you, Jarrett Felix right at that time of the year where you feel disrespected for not being involved in any 4x4 discussions? You're spot on the 4x4 is safe Andrew! But honestly, can you blame the guy? Think about it, what would you rather do, wrestle a Polar Bear or wrestle Zach Lifman? I mean, I would lose both, but at least if I wreslted Zach I'd be able to leave with my arms (just not my dignity). I think Carey will win the 4, but I'm just warning you pal the 4 may look scrawny and weak and have 800m PRs slower than yours by double digits, but if you get mixed up in something that you have little experience in you could end up feeling like total garbage, trying not to puke in the shower.
Worth noting here, Paul Green (i.e. the guy stepping into the #1 Contender spot) is actually real good. He ran 4:14 this year in Boston (admittedly, Marquardt ran 4:04 there) and ran 3:54 last year in the 1500m (although, the Swat kids didn't seem that interested because, paraphrasing here, it wasn't good enough to make Nationals). Here's the most important part of the Green defense: he has excellent speed. If Marquardt (likely trying the mile, 8, 4x8 triple once again) sits around and waits to use his speed (a logical strategy), Green might, emphasis on might, be able to give him a run for his money. Sneaky pun.
A fast pace could leave a few guys in this fast heat bankrupt, which may open the door for some slower heat scorers (especially because the fast heat features just 9 runners, but admittedly no Dan Stackman's). Or what if the fast heat gets super tactical and the slow heat (which went out really fast) opens the door for all of the top three spots to come from the slow heat? Sounds ridiculous right? Impossible you say? Well tell that to RYAN MF RAUSCH THE GRADE A J.A. Steve Sroka if you don't beat him, I want my jersey back.
800m
Carey on the double from the 400. Marquardt on the double for the mile. Depending on how fast that Mile is, it's actually debatable which double is harder. Going up in distance to the 8 after the 4 is going to be tricky. Carey has never been one to sit and kick in his career (despite his excellent speed), so I'm banking on a fast pace in that fast heat. He won't mess around. Marquardt passed on the 3k (an event he could have dominated) to run the 8 and the 4x8 to help his team chase points. Unfortunately, that move has put him against one of the best runners in conference history in an event where Marquardt's sweet is questionable (3k is his sweet spot). Good Luck Chuck.
The fast heat could make for some fast times like this past outdoors and guys like Andrew Mackin and Erick White (another really good Swat guy, finally unleashed individually) should be able to handle things reasonably well and get a fast time (and considering both guys are fresh there is even an outside chance they snag a top 2 spot). But if I'm Ryan Gooding right now I'm kinda like, is there any way I can get in the slow heat?
C'mon Elkan this is your chance! It looks like your Claire Thortonesque temper tantrum got you that scoring chance you wanted!
My nightmare: Elkan takes the lead with 200m to go, makes a move down the back stretch and then ties up on the homestretch, being out leaned at the line by Phillip Johnson like the 2013 exit mile. My Dream: Chris Gardner has a solid run in 1:58.22.
3000m
Tweedie is back! Roza looks poised for the double, barring a surprise twist. Here's the facts about the 3k: it's basically all the dudes from the 5k back again plus a few other dudes (Stefan Arnold, Nick Gandolfo-Lucia) who will compe out and go fresh. That's all well and good, but it doesn't get me excited the same way watching Steph Curry play basketball does (which is probably good considering I'll be in a public setting). Unless Bock comes through the door, I'll probably be taking a nap and penciling in the usual big three results. Blah. There's not even a Muhlenberg kid in here for me to a get a jab at. Swarthmore kids feel free to study right on through this one. I won't even be uspet and John Gagnon probably won't either.
4x800m
F&M looks all set to do their thing: win the 4x8. I think that's how the Olenginskis would like to go out really (although I can't say for sure because I'm not in tune to their twin telepathy). I think it's fun how F&M decided not to run their best guys in the open 8 all season. Were they thinking, "if we are really quiet, maybe everyone will forget about us and it will be just as exciting and satisfying to win the 4x8 as it was in 2012 when no one (besides train) saw it coming at all!"
Admittedly, I love seeing Leo Generali run times like me but run on 7:40 relays (although apparently this year it will be frosh John Vallachi), but I think I will be more interested in what hairstyle they decided on for this year. I'm also determined to figure out which one is Greg and which one is Derek Pawlush.
Haverford, Dickinson, Hopkins, and Swat should put together some contenders on tired legs. Gettysburg will be solid, but not mind blowing. Muhlenberg will be in the race as well! Serious question, has anyone ever done the 5k, DMR, 4x8 triple? Anyone? Well Luke Munyan is about to do it kids so get your popcorn ready.
Seriously man, Muhlenberg is seriously lacking in the depth department. Tom McGuire circa 2011 is rolling over in his grave. This could have been his moment to shine! Think of how different his career arc would be! What would have happened to that Big Show action figure!
Good news for fans of Andrew Mackin: it looks like he's not going to have to run the 4x8 this year! Yeah! That's awesome news for those three Andrew Mackin fans out there!
Look, here's all you need to know about the Centennial Conference. When an 8:44 3k is scratched from that event because he can run 1:59, you are in the Centennial Conference. See you there Henry Woods.
So that's your Centennial Conference Preview! I'll be there ready to cheer and I'm hoping the races will be pretty spicy as well.
Soooooooo
Worth noting here, Paul Green (i.e. the guy stepping into the #1 Contender spot) is actually real good. He ran 4:14 this year in Boston (admittedly, Marquardt ran 4:04 there) and ran 3:54 last year in the 1500m (although, the Swat kids didn't seem that interested because, paraphrasing here, it wasn't good enough to make Nationals). Here's the most important part of the Green defense: he has excellent speed. If Marquardt (likely trying the mile, 8, 4x8 triple once again) sits around and waits to use his speed (a logical strategy), Green might, emphasis on might, be able to give him a run for his money. Sneaky pun.
A fast pace could leave a few guys in this fast heat bankrupt, which may open the door for some slower heat scorers (especially because the fast heat features just 9 runners, but admittedly no Dan Stackman's). Or what if the fast heat gets super tactical and the slow heat (which went out really fast) opens the door for all of the top three spots to come from the slow heat? Sounds ridiculous right? Impossible you say? Well tell that to RYAN MF RAUSCH THE GRADE A J.A. Steve Sroka if you don't beat him, I want my jersey back.
800m
Carey on the double from the 400. Marquardt on the double for the mile. Depending on how fast that Mile is, it's actually debatable which double is harder. Going up in distance to the 8 after the 4 is going to be tricky. Carey has never been one to sit and kick in his career (despite his excellent speed), so I'm banking on a fast pace in that fast heat. He won't mess around. Marquardt passed on the 3k (an event he could have dominated) to run the 8 and the 4x8 to help his team chase points. Unfortunately, that move has put him against one of the best runners in conference history in an event where Marquardt's sweet is questionable (3k is his sweet spot). Good Luck Chuck.
The fast heat could make for some fast times like this past outdoors and guys like Andrew Mackin and Erick White (another really good Swat guy, finally unleashed individually) should be able to handle things reasonably well and get a fast time (and considering both guys are fresh there is even an outside chance they snag a top 2 spot). But if I'm Ryan Gooding right now I'm kinda like, is there any way I can get in the slow heat?
C'mon Elkan this is your chance! It looks like your Claire Thortonesque temper tantrum got you that scoring chance you wanted!
My nightmare: Elkan takes the lead with 200m to go, makes a move down the back stretch and then ties up on the homestretch, being out leaned at the line by Phillip Johnson like the 2013 exit mile. My Dream: Chris Gardner has a solid run in 1:58.22.
3000m
Tweedie is back! Roza looks poised for the double, barring a surprise twist. Here's the facts about the 3k: it's basically all the dudes from the 5k back again plus a few other dudes (Stefan Arnold, Nick Gandolfo-Lucia) who will compe out and go fresh. That's all well and good, but it doesn't get me excited the same way watching Steph Curry play basketball does (which is probably good considering I'll be in a public setting). Unless Bock comes through the door, I'll probably be taking a nap and penciling in the usual big three results. Blah. There's not even a Muhlenberg kid in here for me to a get a jab at. Swarthmore kids feel free to study right on through this one. I won't even be uspet and John Gagnon probably won't either.
4x800m
F&M looks all set to do their thing: win the 4x8. I think that's how the Olenginskis would like to go out really (although I can't say for sure because I'm not in tune to their twin telepathy). I think it's fun how F&M decided not to run their best guys in the open 8 all season. Were they thinking, "if we are really quiet, maybe everyone will forget about us and it will be just as exciting and satisfying to win the 4x8 as it was in 2012 when no one (besides train) saw it coming at all!"
Admittedly, I love seeing Leo Generali run times like me but run on 7:40 relays (although apparently this year it will be frosh John Vallachi), but I think I will be more interested in what hairstyle they decided on for this year. I'm also determined to figure out which one is Greg and which one is Derek Pawlush.
Haverford, Dickinson, Hopkins, and Swat should put together some contenders on tired legs. Gettysburg will be solid, but not mind blowing. Muhlenberg will be in the race as well! Serious question, has anyone ever done the 5k, DMR, 4x8 triple? Anyone? Well Luke Munyan is about to do it kids so get your popcorn ready.
Seriously man, Muhlenberg is seriously lacking in the depth department. Tom McGuire circa 2011 is rolling over in his grave. This could have been his moment to shine! Think of how different his career arc would be! What would have happened to that Big Show action figure!
Good news for fans of Andrew Mackin: it looks like he's not going to have to run the 4x8 this year! Yeah! That's awesome news for those three Andrew Mackin fans out there!
Look, here's all you need to know about the Centennial Conference. When an 8:44 3k is scratched from that event because he can run 1:59, you are in the Centennial Conference. See you there Henry Woods.
So that's your Centennial Conference Preview! I'll be there ready to cheer and I'm hoping the races will be pretty spicy as well.
Soooooooo
Look At Me Now: The Rise of Cristian Soratos
First off, I just want to apologize for not being able to post recently. It’s been a very hectic two weeks for me school-wise and I’m going to try to catch up with as much as I can. Unfortunately I will not be reviewing the past two weekends I missed simply because that will take forever. I will, however, try to get more posts out rather just weekly reviews. Maybe a meet preview? Alumni reviews? Throw me some ideas! Let’s get started…
If you told me that a man from Montana State by the name of Cristian Soratos would be leading the NCAA mile field this year, I would’ve most likely laughed you. Especially if you said he would run a 3:55. It would’ve been preposterous to think that anyone but Cheserek would be grabbing headlines in the mile field this year. Even if EddyChes didn’t declare for the mile other names were surely to take that spotlight whether it be McGorty, Rotich, Kidder, Creese, or any name from Georgetown. No one thought Cristian Soratos would ever be in the mix.
When the season first started, Soratos immediately put himself on top of the mile list during the opening week of racing. His time read 3:56.87. I couldn’t help but think to myself “Who is this guy and why have I not heard of him?” After consulting with Jarrett, I later found that this 3:56 had been a conversion from a 4:05 he ran at altitude (Montana State Open). The same thought of “Wow that was generous” ran through the minds of every athlete in the country. I tried my best to push my doubts aside and hold onto the idea that Soratos could be a surprise challenger to Rotich’s throne. I had even written about his performance claiming that he could contend against Cheserek, although in my heart I knew I didn’t really believe it. Even a reader was able to say what I wasn’t. “No way the King gets upset”.
As the season progressed and Soratos’ name fell down the cutoff list, it was tough to think that he would ever really make a name for himself again and he essentially became forgotten…That is, until February 13th. Soratos stepped onto the track at the Husky Classic. A loaded field stood next to him with names like Brandon Kidder, Michael Atchoo, Jake Hurysz, and Daniel Winn. This would be the true test to see if he was worth the 3:56 time next to his name. Not only did Soratos win the race but he won it by nearly two seconds over some of the most skilled milers from the most prestigious programs in the country. Cristian Soratos is for real. The man that was once a 4:06 miler and barely cracked 1:54 last winter is now being chased by the entire NCAA mile field.
Will Soratos win NCAA’s? Maybe. The field behind him is still dangerous and he is by no means a “heavy” favorite.Cheserek is a winner and anyone able to hang with him will have to cover his kick as well. The mile title will not be an easy one to obtain. Nonetheless, Soratos might be the glimmer of hope that the little guys of the running world need. He could prove that the underdogs still have a chance in a sport dominated by naturally talented athletes. Perhaps I’m blowing this out of proportion. Maybe him getting a title won’t hold the importance I believe it will. But one thing is for sure. He’ll have another fan in me come March 14th.
Run on,
Garrett
Garrett
Official Prediction Contest (with Links to Previews)
Here is how this will work. Each person has gets $400 (not literally of course). I assign some dollar values to all the runners in the distance events and you choose how to use that money to "buy" runners for states and build your team. Then scoring works just like it does at the state meet. If your runner gets 1st, that's 10 points, second is 8 points, then 6-5-4-3-2-1 up through 8th. Here is the dollar values to pick from (remember to attach some type of code name so we can keep track of how everyone did):
Mile
Ritz $100
James $85
Brophy $85
McDevitt $65
Webb $65
Kolor $55
Shinn $30
Galligan** $25
Degroot-Lutzner $25
Diestellow $25
Wills $20
Weidner $10
Seel $10
Other $5
800m
Ritz $80
Lewis $90
Graca $90
Sauer $85
Eddinger $65
Foust $50
Samuels $30
Hackman $35
Strosko $35
Wisner $35
Wagner $20
Wolfinger $10
Other $5
3000m
Hockenbury $85
McGoey $85
Comber $90
Loevner $60
Wharrey $60
Gunzenhauser $55
Tidball $40
Gebhart $45
Heinauer $30
Power $30
Abert $30
Susalla $15
Knapp $10
4x800m
Pennsbury $95
Penncrest $85
LaSalle $85
CB West $75
State College $70
Pennridge $50
Abington $50
Strath Haven $30
Neshaminy $30
Altoona $45
Bensalem $10
Wissahickon $10
DMR
O'Hara $85
St. Joe's $80
Stoga $85
GFS $70
Malvern Prep $75
DT West $60
CB East $70
Bonner $40
CR South $35
WC Henderson $15
Twin Valley $15
CR North $15
If you have any questions, comments, concerns you know where to reach me. Good luck to all and I will post up my own squad at some point soon.
Mile
Ritz $100
James $85
Brophy $85
McDevitt $65
Webb $65
Kolor $55
Shinn $30
Galligan** $25
Degroot-Lutzner $25
Diestellow $25
Wills $20
Weidner $10
Seel $10
Other $5
800m
Ritz $80
Lewis $90
Graca $90
Sauer $85
Eddinger $65
Foust $50
Samuels $30
Hackman $35
Strosko $35
Wisner $35
Wagner $20
Wolfinger $10
Other $5
3000m
Hockenbury $85
McGoey $85
Comber $90
Loevner $60
Wharrey $60
Gunzenhauser $55
Tidball $40
Gebhart $45
Heinauer $30
Power $30
Abert $30
Susalla $15
Knapp $10
4x800m
Pennsbury $95
Penncrest $85
LaSalle $85
CB West $75
State College $70
Pennridge $50
Abington $50
Strath Haven $30
Neshaminy $30
Altoona $45
Bensalem $10
Wissahickon $10
DMR
O'Hara $85
St. Joe's $80
Stoga $85
GFS $70
Malvern Prep $75
DT West $60
CB East $70
Bonner $40
CR South $35
WC Henderson $15
Twin Valley $15
CR North $15
If you have any questions, comments, concerns you know where to reach me. Good luck to all and I will post up my own squad at some point soon.
Links to Prediction Posts and other State Stuff
Here you go:
Mile
800m
3000m
4x800m
DMR
Also worth noting, I won't be able to attend the state championships this year (I'll be watching some old teammates at the Centennial Conference Championships that weekend instead), but I am hoping to get some coverage/do some interviews. If you are interested in being a part of the coverage team, let me know and I can give you some details on what I'm thinking. Email at jarrettfelix1130@gmail.com or on facebook is good (either through the etrain11 page or through my account if we are friends).
Also, once the dust settles on state champ sunday, I was hoping to maybe do some interviews with some of the winners/place winners. What do you guys think is best: skype interviews, a phone interview/podcast or a written interview? Obviously some athletes who I request these from will have their own preferences as well so not all might be possible but just looking for some ideas.
Also I'm currently working on trying to get an interesting/creative prediction contest going for states. If anyone has any ideas hit me up.
Keep the predictions and discussion going people, this has been fun.
As always, your humble servant,
train
Mile
800m
3000m
4x800m
DMR
Also worth noting, I won't be able to attend the state championships this year (I'll be watching some old teammates at the Centennial Conference Championships that weekend instead), but I am hoping to get some coverage/do some interviews. If you are interested in being a part of the coverage team, let me know and I can give you some details on what I'm thinking. Email at jarrettfelix1130@gmail.com or on facebook is good (either through the etrain11 page or through my account if we are friends).
Also, once the dust settles on state champ sunday, I was hoping to maybe do some interviews with some of the winners/place winners. What do you guys think is best: skype interviews, a phone interview/podcast or a written interview? Obviously some athletes who I request these from will have their own preferences as well so not all might be possible but just looking for some ideas.
Also I'm currently working on trying to get an interesting/creative prediction contest going for states. If anyone has any ideas hit me up.
Keep the predictions and discussion going people, this has been fun.
As always, your humble servant,
train
2015 PTFCA State Championship Predictions: Distance Medley Relay
Heat 1
O'Hara
St. Joe's Prep
Conestoga
GFS
Malvern Prep
DT West
CB East
Bonner
CR South
WC Henderson
Twin Valley
CR North
My love for the DMR is well documented. Perhaps it is the enigma that is the 1200m. The new, rarely run event that adds an intriguing new dimension to the traditional relay race. Maybe it's the power of the anchor leg who has so much time to try and run down the other squads and change the game. Or quite possibly, it's the simple fact that I came from a DMR school. From 2007-2009, Upper Dublin High School took 4th-4th-1st at the State Championships in the DMR and added a Penn Relays title for good measure. Watching those races (because trust me I wasn't good enough to run on them) gave me a unique appreciation for the event. And naturally, my bias has come out in my writing.
This race has all the makings of being epic. On paper, it reminds me a bit of the 2011 State Championships. 2011 wasn't exactly what I would call a loaded field, but it had a selection of 13 very good teams. The winning time was only 10:28 (Wissahickon got the title) and 8th place was 10:35, only 7 seconds back. 2nd through 4th was separated by 0.64 seconds. Want to know something interesting? Take a look at these names from the state championship DMRs of recent years:
2008: LaSalle, anchor leg Dan Lowry 4:12 PR, not PIAA
(FYI GFS won Penn Relays that year with indoor mile champ Max Kaulbach)
2009: Upper Dublin, anchor leg Mike Palmisano 4:13 PR, outdoor state champ 1600m
2010: West Chester Henderson, anchor leg Will Kellar 4:12.00 PR, outdoor state champ 1600m
2012: Great Valley, lead off leg Ned Willig 4:11.99 PR, indoor state champ mile
2013: LaSalle, anchor leg Tom Coyle 4:11.97 PR, outdoor state champ 1600m
2014: West Chester Henderson, lead off leg Tony Russell, indoor state champ mile
That's right folks 2011 is the only time where a state champion caliber miler was not running the 1200m or 1600m leg of the state champs for the DMR (now to be fair the eventual state champ in the 800m ran the 1200m leg, but he never ran faster than 4:20 for 1600m). The 2011 Wissahickon squad was an excellent team, but they also had a perfect storm of events. They got their anchor a lead and there wasn't another game changing anchor close enough to catch him (Chris Campbell, 4:14 man, came close but couldn't get there).
Now you might ask, why do I bring this up? Well, simply it's because I'm trying to figure out who is going to win the DMR state championship this year, and I'm trying to decide if Stoga, GFS, St. Joe's, DT West and others have the game changing piece to be state champions? And if they don't, do they have enough to be a 2015 version of Wissahickon?
The strongest argument for O'Hara or CB East or Malvern Prep to win the title is their anchor legs. O'Hara has Kevin James who has already produced two of the most impressive anchor legs of the year for OH. Brophy's ability is well-documented at this point and although I wouldn't call him a game changer in the mile just yet, I truly believe it's only a matter of time before he becomes one. I also think McDevitt has the potential to at least achieve Chris Campbell level success in the mile (4:14ish at 1600m and 3rd at states indoors). Those guys are the three biggest names I can find on the list. But they are also all going to be doubling.
In fact, CB East has Boucher, Shahideh and Brophy all scheduled to run individual events before coming back for the DMR. Brophy experimented with the 1200m last week at MoCs which could mean East will try a Brophy-Boucher-Shahideh-Sands/one of the Josh's approach to this year's DMR. Wills and McDevitt are both in line for the Mile-DMR double, but there is lots of time there to recover.
For O'Hara, they will be fresh with the exception of James, but can the supporting cast keep James in contention? Keep in mind that James apparently split 4:13.2 last weekend, meaning he probably put about 20+ seconds on almost everyone else in the field during his leg. That implies his other legs were relatively even with the field prior to the anchor leg. A field that didn't include many of the top teams like Malvern Prep, Conestoga, St. Joe's Prep and GFS. But O'Hara has an excellent miler in Rob Morro who can keep the team in the hunt on the lead off leg. He has run 4:32 this year and he will be critical to positioning the team properly to keep them relevant until James can get the stick. The 800m leg will also be important. O'Hara ran sub 8:10 earlier this year so they have pieces, but it's not been clear who is at or near the 2:02ish average they produced at the Armory. 3:15-52-2:02-4:15 adds to 10:24 for the sake of reference, a time that I think would be good enough to win gold this year.
I really like Conestoga's squad this year and I am thrilled that they decided to go all in for the relay. When I predicted that Murray, Marston and Nelson would all scratch out of their events I wasn't sure if I was being too bold. But clearly this group is about the team first and foremost and that attitude will be crucial to a successful run at states. Because that's thing about Stoga, they have a very strong overall team. I'm assuming Murray runs their lead off leg, so he will have the job of staying at or near the front. Their 400m leg is probably a tad below average (they've been running distance man Jimmy Cooper in that spot recently, but he has been developing really well in that role lately) and then they give to Killian Nelson on the 800m leg. That's going to be the key moment. Nelson needs to have a big day because most teams weakest link sits in that spot. This is where Stoga can break the race open and get Marston some cushion for a run to the finish.
And let's not sleep on Marston. The guy's a total gamer who showed up big time at States and Districts in Cross Country. He had a fantastic season (15:40 at Hershey, sub 15:20 at Lehigh in subpar conditions) and now has been working hard to improve his speed for this race. I don't think he needs to be a 4:15 type guy to get his team the W, but I'd imagine he will definitely need to be under 4:20. He hasn't run that kind of mark yet this indoors, but I believe he has that in him. 3:12-:54-1:57-4:19 gets you to 10:22 without decimals for the sake of reference.
GFS and Malvern Prep are built fairly similarly, although MP will be running on more tired legs. Hepp and Dahl will provide serious firepower on the end legs for GFS who held the state lead briefly early this year after Yale (they beat Stoga by a pretty wide margin there). Hepp is a nice combination of speed and strength and Dahl is a beast who split 4:18 at Yale and ran 8:44 for 3k the next day. The 800m leg has likely been a point of emphasis for GFS as they hope to improve that leg a bit to round out the relay. I love that Dahl and his team decided to scratch a big time 3k to chase a gold medal in the DMR, but keep in mind this is still a young team. Dahl's just a soph and Hepp is a Junior. Last year this GFS team struggled on the big stage at states. This year I'm hoping they are ready to bounce back form that. 3:11-:53-2:06-4:18 is 10:28 without decimals.
Malvern Prep has two excellent legs in Wills and McDevitt who I really like in this race. This squad had an ok showing at last year's championships in this event, but I think they feel they can do better this year. I'm sure gold is in mind and Addison Mueller's 2:04.0 is huge for this squad looking ahead. King is also a great 400m runner in his own right who may be able to give the team a bit of an edge. We will see how much Wills and McDevitt have left in the tank for the DM, but they do have a long spot of rest. I could see them finding a way to get into the 3:12-:51-2:03-4:17 range, that's 10:23 without the addition of change.
You can already start to see how huge a big leg from Killian Nelson would be for Stoga.
The team that you have to keep an eye on is St. Joe's Prep, who held the PA #1 spot up until it was taken by O'Hara this past weekend at MoC. This Prep team is excellent, led by john Daly who split 4:17 for this squad earlier in the year. Prep has Isiah Fisher and Stephen McClellan, both of whom have hovered around 2:02ish this indoors, and they have an excellent 400m runner which could pick up a few seconds. In my opinion, the key for this team will be the 1200m leg. Whoever runs it has to keep this squad up near the front and out of trouble so that they can let Daly do work on the anchor. Daly gave up his shot at individual glory in the mile in hopes of earning a gold medal with his brothers in the DMR so I hope that decision pays off for this team. I'm not sure exactly what kind of 1200m split this team has in them but 3:15-:51-2:00-4:17 doesn't seem too far fetched (that's 10:23).
DT West could be another surprise team. Their end legs are sub 4:30 guys and they too are completely fresh. They have a strong 400m leg and they have proven they can perform under pressure at states before in cross country. They are still a very young team that probably will have a freshman, a sophomore and a junior running the key distance legs. That may be an issue at states, but DT West hasn't been too concerned about the youth movement so far. Serious question (and this might be absurdly far fetched) but is there any chance Jaxson could come back for this race? I seriously doubt it, but how crazy would it be if they added a potential sub 4:20 leg to the back end of the relay?
Bonner, CR South, CR North, Twin Valley and West Chester Henderson round out the field of 12 in the DMR. Each of these teams has a chance to be in the medals, even if I don't believe they have serious hopes for gold. Bonner had an excellent race last weekend and seem to have the most positive momentum going into states. Sullivan and Rastatter have been excellent end legs and Cromity is coming along nicely as well. CR South's end legs are two of my favorites from this indoor season, Maguire and Hanna, and they have some strong pieces they can fill into the mid legs as well. They have hit a bit of a cold stretch in recent weeks, but I think they have the best potential of this next group to surprise. CR North will hope for a big leg from XC state medalist Brian Arita who decided to stay fresh for the relay. Twin Valley will be led by Coakley and the Gearys in pursuit of a state medal and West Chester Henderson will try to use their strength runners (including what will likely be a doubling Alex Knapp) to compete for a top spot.
Ultimately, you heard me rattle off a lot of splits, but those don't mean as much to me as what my gut says. And right now my gut says just punt and pretend like you are too busy and don't make any predictions at all instead. This is another really tricky one to call. In the end, I just have a feeling in my gut that makes me pick the way I do. So here it is:
1. St. Joe's Prep 10:24.35
2. Conestoga 10:25.09
3. O'Hara 10:26.75
4. Malvern Prep 10:26.90
5. GFS 10:28.79
6. CB Eat 10:33.56
7. DT West 10:36.92
8. CR South 10:40.33
(For the record, I think there is like a 50% chance that Brophy just goes crazy this weekend and CB East finds a way to win this race too. But all the doubling worries me and the fact that I just don't know what they are capable of in any sort of relay scares me off from picking them too high. Hopefully that doesn't come back to get me).
O'Hara
St. Joe's Prep
Conestoga
GFS
Malvern Prep
DT West
CB East
Bonner
CR South
WC Henderson
Twin Valley
CR North
My love for the DMR is well documented. Perhaps it is the enigma that is the 1200m. The new, rarely run event that adds an intriguing new dimension to the traditional relay race. Maybe it's the power of the anchor leg who has so much time to try and run down the other squads and change the game. Or quite possibly, it's the simple fact that I came from a DMR school. From 2007-2009, Upper Dublin High School took 4th-4th-1st at the State Championships in the DMR and added a Penn Relays title for good measure. Watching those races (because trust me I wasn't good enough to run on them) gave me a unique appreciation for the event. And naturally, my bias has come out in my writing.
This race has all the makings of being epic. On paper, it reminds me a bit of the 2011 State Championships. 2011 wasn't exactly what I would call a loaded field, but it had a selection of 13 very good teams. The winning time was only 10:28 (Wissahickon got the title) and 8th place was 10:35, only 7 seconds back. 2nd through 4th was separated by 0.64 seconds. Want to know something interesting? Take a look at these names from the state championship DMRs of recent years:
2008: LaSalle, anchor leg Dan Lowry 4:12 PR, not PIAA
(FYI GFS won Penn Relays that year with indoor mile champ Max Kaulbach)
2009: Upper Dublin, anchor leg Mike Palmisano 4:13 PR, outdoor state champ 1600m
2010: West Chester Henderson, anchor leg Will Kellar 4:12.00 PR, outdoor state champ 1600m
2012: Great Valley, lead off leg Ned Willig 4:11.99 PR, indoor state champ mile
2013: LaSalle, anchor leg Tom Coyle 4:11.97 PR, outdoor state champ 1600m
2014: West Chester Henderson, lead off leg Tony Russell, indoor state champ mile
That's right folks 2011 is the only time where a state champion caliber miler was not running the 1200m or 1600m leg of the state champs for the DMR (now to be fair the eventual state champ in the 800m ran the 1200m leg, but he never ran faster than 4:20 for 1600m). The 2011 Wissahickon squad was an excellent team, but they also had a perfect storm of events. They got their anchor a lead and there wasn't another game changing anchor close enough to catch him (Chris Campbell, 4:14 man, came close but couldn't get there).
Now you might ask, why do I bring this up? Well, simply it's because I'm trying to figure out who is going to win the DMR state championship this year, and I'm trying to decide if Stoga, GFS, St. Joe's, DT West and others have the game changing piece to be state champions? And if they don't, do they have enough to be a 2015 version of Wissahickon?
The strongest argument for O'Hara or CB East or Malvern Prep to win the title is their anchor legs. O'Hara has Kevin James who has already produced two of the most impressive anchor legs of the year for OH. Brophy's ability is well-documented at this point and although I wouldn't call him a game changer in the mile just yet, I truly believe it's only a matter of time before he becomes one. I also think McDevitt has the potential to at least achieve Chris Campbell level success in the mile (4:14ish at 1600m and 3rd at states indoors). Those guys are the three biggest names I can find on the list. But they are also all going to be doubling.
In fact, CB East has Boucher, Shahideh and Brophy all scheduled to run individual events before coming back for the DMR. Brophy experimented with the 1200m last week at MoCs which could mean East will try a Brophy-Boucher-Shahideh-Sands/one of the Josh's approach to this year's DMR. Wills and McDevitt are both in line for the Mile-DMR double, but there is lots of time there to recover.
For O'Hara, they will be fresh with the exception of James, but can the supporting cast keep James in contention? Keep in mind that James apparently split 4:13.2 last weekend, meaning he probably put about 20+ seconds on almost everyone else in the field during his leg. That implies his other legs were relatively even with the field prior to the anchor leg. A field that didn't include many of the top teams like Malvern Prep, Conestoga, St. Joe's Prep and GFS. But O'Hara has an excellent miler in Rob Morro who can keep the team in the hunt on the lead off leg. He has run 4:32 this year and he will be critical to positioning the team properly to keep them relevant until James can get the stick. The 800m leg will also be important. O'Hara ran sub 8:10 earlier this year so they have pieces, but it's not been clear who is at or near the 2:02ish average they produced at the Armory. 3:15-52-2:02-4:15 adds to 10:24 for the sake of reference, a time that I think would be good enough to win gold this year.
I really like Conestoga's squad this year and I am thrilled that they decided to go all in for the relay. When I predicted that Murray, Marston and Nelson would all scratch out of their events I wasn't sure if I was being too bold. But clearly this group is about the team first and foremost and that attitude will be crucial to a successful run at states. Because that's thing about Stoga, they have a very strong overall team. I'm assuming Murray runs their lead off leg, so he will have the job of staying at or near the front. Their 400m leg is probably a tad below average (they've been running distance man Jimmy Cooper in that spot recently, but he has been developing really well in that role lately) and then they give to Killian Nelson on the 800m leg. That's going to be the key moment. Nelson needs to have a big day because most teams weakest link sits in that spot. This is where Stoga can break the race open and get Marston some cushion for a run to the finish.
And let's not sleep on Marston. The guy's a total gamer who showed up big time at States and Districts in Cross Country. He had a fantastic season (15:40 at Hershey, sub 15:20 at Lehigh in subpar conditions) and now has been working hard to improve his speed for this race. I don't think he needs to be a 4:15 type guy to get his team the W, but I'd imagine he will definitely need to be under 4:20. He hasn't run that kind of mark yet this indoors, but I believe he has that in him. 3:12-:54-1:57-4:19 gets you to 10:22 without decimals for the sake of reference.
GFS and Malvern Prep are built fairly similarly, although MP will be running on more tired legs. Hepp and Dahl will provide serious firepower on the end legs for GFS who held the state lead briefly early this year after Yale (they beat Stoga by a pretty wide margin there). Hepp is a nice combination of speed and strength and Dahl is a beast who split 4:18 at Yale and ran 8:44 for 3k the next day. The 800m leg has likely been a point of emphasis for GFS as they hope to improve that leg a bit to round out the relay. I love that Dahl and his team decided to scratch a big time 3k to chase a gold medal in the DMR, but keep in mind this is still a young team. Dahl's just a soph and Hepp is a Junior. Last year this GFS team struggled on the big stage at states. This year I'm hoping they are ready to bounce back form that. 3:11-:53-2:06-4:18 is 10:28 without decimals.
Malvern Prep has two excellent legs in Wills and McDevitt who I really like in this race. This squad had an ok showing at last year's championships in this event, but I think they feel they can do better this year. I'm sure gold is in mind and Addison Mueller's 2:04.0 is huge for this squad looking ahead. King is also a great 400m runner in his own right who may be able to give the team a bit of an edge. We will see how much Wills and McDevitt have left in the tank for the DM, but they do have a long spot of rest. I could see them finding a way to get into the 3:12-:51-2:03-4:17 range, that's 10:23 without the addition of change.
You can already start to see how huge a big leg from Killian Nelson would be for Stoga.
The team that you have to keep an eye on is St. Joe's Prep, who held the PA #1 spot up until it was taken by O'Hara this past weekend at MoC. This Prep team is excellent, led by john Daly who split 4:17 for this squad earlier in the year. Prep has Isiah Fisher and Stephen McClellan, both of whom have hovered around 2:02ish this indoors, and they have an excellent 400m runner which could pick up a few seconds. In my opinion, the key for this team will be the 1200m leg. Whoever runs it has to keep this squad up near the front and out of trouble so that they can let Daly do work on the anchor. Daly gave up his shot at individual glory in the mile in hopes of earning a gold medal with his brothers in the DMR so I hope that decision pays off for this team. I'm not sure exactly what kind of 1200m split this team has in them but 3:15-:51-2:00-4:17 doesn't seem too far fetched (that's 10:23).
DT West could be another surprise team. Their end legs are sub 4:30 guys and they too are completely fresh. They have a strong 400m leg and they have proven they can perform under pressure at states before in cross country. They are still a very young team that probably will have a freshman, a sophomore and a junior running the key distance legs. That may be an issue at states, but DT West hasn't been too concerned about the youth movement so far. Serious question (and this might be absurdly far fetched) but is there any chance Jaxson could come back for this race? I seriously doubt it, but how crazy would it be if they added a potential sub 4:20 leg to the back end of the relay?
Bonner, CR South, CR North, Twin Valley and West Chester Henderson round out the field of 12 in the DMR. Each of these teams has a chance to be in the medals, even if I don't believe they have serious hopes for gold. Bonner had an excellent race last weekend and seem to have the most positive momentum going into states. Sullivan and Rastatter have been excellent end legs and Cromity is coming along nicely as well. CR South's end legs are two of my favorites from this indoor season, Maguire and Hanna, and they have some strong pieces they can fill into the mid legs as well. They have hit a bit of a cold stretch in recent weeks, but I think they have the best potential of this next group to surprise. CR North will hope for a big leg from XC state medalist Brian Arita who decided to stay fresh for the relay. Twin Valley will be led by Coakley and the Gearys in pursuit of a state medal and West Chester Henderson will try to use their strength runners (including what will likely be a doubling Alex Knapp) to compete for a top spot.
Ultimately, you heard me rattle off a lot of splits, but those don't mean as much to me as what my gut says. And right now my gut says just punt and pretend like you are too busy and don't make any predictions at all instead. This is another really tricky one to call. In the end, I just have a feeling in my gut that makes me pick the way I do. So here it is:
1. St. Joe's Prep 10:24.35
2. Conestoga 10:25.09
3. O'Hara 10:26.75
4. Malvern Prep 10:26.90
5. GFS 10:28.79
6. CB Eat 10:33.56
7. DT West 10:36.92
8. CR South 10:40.33
(For the record, I think there is like a 50% chance that Brophy just goes crazy this weekend and CB East finds a way to win this race too. But all the doubling worries me and the fact that I just don't know what they are capable of in any sort of relay scares me off from picking them too high. Hopefully that doesn't come back to get me).
2015 PTFCA Indoor State Championship Predictions: 4x800m
Heat 1
Pennsbury
Penncrest
LaSalle
CB West
State College
Pennridge
Abington
Strath Haven
Neshaminy
Altoona
Bensalem
Wissahickon
In 2008 I predicted North Penn would win the state title. It wasn't too tricky considering they were arguably the biggest favorites in state history. In '09 I picked CB South (another easy one), in '10 and '11, I picked CB West over Abington for the upset (in 2010 I had it flipped, in 2011 I got it right), in 2012 I had Penncrest over Pennridge (ended up Pennridge over Penncrest, one of my all time I knew it but didn't say it moments), in 2013 I had Henderson (they got 2nd) and in 2014 I had State College. So clearly I've had some good fortune with the 4x8 predictions over the past few years.
I'm not saying this to brag, I'm saying it to try and maybe win some respect from you before I completely whiff on my predictions for this years's round of relays. Like seriously, I have no idea what to do with this year's 4x8 field. But, seeing as I have a blog devoted to this sort of thing, I guess I have to try. So let's break down the teams.
Pennsbury comes in as the clear cut best team by time in the state. They have run a flurry of top notch 4x8s including a 7:51 at the Millrose Games. When they have put a fresh relay on the track, no other PA team has been able to keep it close. However, when they have doubled their key legs (Webb and Sauer) the door has creaked a bit more open for a possible upset. But it is important to remember that Webb has proven he is an excellent doubler and Sauer is one of the best 800m runners in the state. Between Yeger, Mulvaney and Kersten, Pennsbury has three extra legs they can plug in at or under the 2 flat mark. If Webb and Sauer can average 1:56 between the two of them, we are looking at a 7:50-7:52 type relay, much faster than any other team has run this season.
Besides Pennsbury, Penncest and LaSalle have also broke the 8 minute barrier as a relay this year. Penncrest has been a consistently strong both indoors and outdoors for the better part of a decade, but they have come up just short in their hopes for gold. Their best shot prior to this year was likely 2012 where Pennridge surprised for the title in an upset Penncrest had to settle for Silver. Maybe this is the year that Penncrest is able to get over the hump. As for LaSalle, they have grabbed medals consistently in whichever relay they choose to pursue. This year is expected to be no different as they boast a very well balanced attack in the 4x8. Both LaSalle and Penncrest have opted to keep their relays completely fresh in pursuit of the title. That could be the difference in what is expected to be a tight race.
There hasn't been back-to-back state champions in the 4x800m since 2007-2008 when North Penn took home the honors. State College has decided to go all-in on their title defense this season, saving their entire squad for the relay. Alex Milligan leads the charge, but this is still a completely different line-up from the one that won gold in 2014. However, this team has five runners who have run around 2:03 or faster this year, including a couple at or under 2 flat. On their home track, they have an excellent chance at defending their title.
The team that unseated the last "almost" back-to-back champs was the 2011 CB West team that stunned most with their 7:45.06 at states. The time was roughly 15 seconds faster than their seed mark from Glenn Mills. This year's 2015 CB West team was running around 8:20ish for most of the year before popping off an 8:05 4x800m and winning the Meet of Champions race at Lehigh this past weekend, catapulting them into the state title talks. Rock Fortna has had a fantastic season and he will look to continue the momentum, leading the squad at states. CB West also has a completely fresh squad slated to compete on Sunday. I'm noticing a trend.
A rapidly developing sleeper team is Altoona. They have run "just" 8:11 this season, but they have yet to run a relay with the degree of freshness expected from this squad. Brad Foust has already run 1:56 this year (he will be doubling), and Brett George has run 1:58 multiple times. Those two combined with Dom Stroh (4:31 miler and split 1:58ish last year at Penn Relays) sets the team up for their second straight sub 8 minute 4x8. They too should have a nice fan showing to rally around towards meets end.
I see these teams as the most likely squads to crack 8 minutes, but any of the 12 squads entered might be able to get there. Pennridge, Bensalem and Abington are both former state champion schools at this meet and have clocked sub 8:12 marks this year. Pennridge is doubling their best runner in Dan Williams, but Abington should have a completely fresh squad led by Neely and Good. It's been a while since we've seen either team at full strength in the 4x8, but the potential is there for both teams to return to their form of old. Bensalem is looking to bounce back after a tough run at the Meet of Champions. They have Ramirez, Mays and Shah on the roster, all hoping to chase a sub 2 mark. Strath Haven had a balanced approach of near 2 flat guys that go them down to 8:08ish already this season. With a few breakthroughs, this team can be on the medal stand as well.
Neshaminy and Wissahickon are the last remaining teams in the race after they jumped a few squads at Last Chance to earn their spot in the loaded 4x800m. Wissahickon has been helped by Kyaunde Johnson's emergence as a sub 2 leg (1:58.3 last week), but also has state qualifier in XC Lukas Marcelis and emerging young star Christopher. Andy Harmon's continued improvement has been the difference between a state team and a bunch of spectators. Neshaminy has been known for it's 400m prominence for much of the year, but this go round the team showed it's stuff in the 4x8. Dave Marrington has been a strong leg all season and Neshaminy has quietly excelled in this event.
As mentioned, with just 12 teams on the line, any of these squads could break through for the title (statement is even more true when talking about medalists). It's very up for grabs. I've gone back and forth on these predictions a variety of times. I think there are a lot of teams with excellent balance. CB West, Penncrest, Pennsbury, and LaSalle may finish the day with 4 guys sub 2. State College and Altoona have a great chance to do that as well with a few small PRs. I'm certainly a little concerned about the tired legs of Pennsbury chasing the title against so many top notch fresh relays.
The key for a Pennsbury win is their two relatively unknown legs. Webb and Sauer will be tired. They won't be able to carry this team around the track on their own so it will be up to Mulvaney and Yeger to keep the team in the mix. I think they are both very capable of doing this, but it is a solid amount of pressure for these runners.
I am a huge fan of this CB West team. I've been very close to picking them for the win about five different times during this post, but can't seem to pull the trigger. I loved what I have seen from them in the relays this year and with a fresh team on the track, they will give Pennsbury a real scare. That being said, I can't bring myself to pull the trigger. I'm worried they may not have the power to match up with Sauer and Webb if those guys are near their best and they may be a year away from the top spot.
Penncrest and LaSalle both have their own impressive one-two punches looming on fresh legs. Emmanuel and Komat will go for Penncrest and LaSalle boasts Sutton and Grant. I like Emmanuel and Komat a bit better given that the 800m is really their sweet spot. That being said, I think LaSalle has a better 3-4 punch in Price and Challingsworth. But will that be enough to beat the Penns?
State College and Altoona both have excellent squads. I think I would have a bit more confidence in a fresh Altoona squad, especially if Uliano can better his 2:03.9 from last week. I'm a big fan of George, Foust and Stroh who all have sub 2 potential in this race. But with their best leg on the double, I can't bring myself to pick them for the title. SC is an excellent squad, but they too may be a year away. Milligan has been excellent this season, but I'm thinking the winning team's anchor will have to be at least 1:56 and that might be out of his range right now.
Only time will tell exactly how this race plays out, but in the meantime here's my gut instincts on how things will unfold.
1. Pennsbury 7:52.87
2. Penncrest 7:54.05
3. CB West 7:55.18
4. LaSalle 7:55.94
5. State College 7:58.91
6. Altoona 7:58.99
7. Abington 8:01.55
8. Strath Haven 8:06.99
Pennsbury
Penncrest
LaSalle
CB West
State College
Pennridge
Abington
Strath Haven
Neshaminy
Altoona
Bensalem
Wissahickon
In 2008 I predicted North Penn would win the state title. It wasn't too tricky considering they were arguably the biggest favorites in state history. In '09 I picked CB South (another easy one), in '10 and '11, I picked CB West over Abington for the upset (in 2010 I had it flipped, in 2011 I got it right), in 2012 I had Penncrest over Pennridge (ended up Pennridge over Penncrest, one of my all time I knew it but didn't say it moments), in 2013 I had Henderson (they got 2nd) and in 2014 I had State College. So clearly I've had some good fortune with the 4x8 predictions over the past few years.
I'm not saying this to brag, I'm saying it to try and maybe win some respect from you before I completely whiff on my predictions for this years's round of relays. Like seriously, I have no idea what to do with this year's 4x8 field. But, seeing as I have a blog devoted to this sort of thing, I guess I have to try. So let's break down the teams.
Pennsbury comes in as the clear cut best team by time in the state. They have run a flurry of top notch 4x8s including a 7:51 at the Millrose Games. When they have put a fresh relay on the track, no other PA team has been able to keep it close. However, when they have doubled their key legs (Webb and Sauer) the door has creaked a bit more open for a possible upset. But it is important to remember that Webb has proven he is an excellent doubler and Sauer is one of the best 800m runners in the state. Between Yeger, Mulvaney and Kersten, Pennsbury has three extra legs they can plug in at or under the 2 flat mark. If Webb and Sauer can average 1:56 between the two of them, we are looking at a 7:50-7:52 type relay, much faster than any other team has run this season.
Besides Pennsbury, Penncest and LaSalle have also broke the 8 minute barrier as a relay this year. Penncrest has been a consistently strong both indoors and outdoors for the better part of a decade, but they have come up just short in their hopes for gold. Their best shot prior to this year was likely 2012 where Pennridge surprised for the title in an upset Penncrest had to settle for Silver. Maybe this is the year that Penncrest is able to get over the hump. As for LaSalle, they have grabbed medals consistently in whichever relay they choose to pursue. This year is expected to be no different as they boast a very well balanced attack in the 4x8. Both LaSalle and Penncrest have opted to keep their relays completely fresh in pursuit of the title. That could be the difference in what is expected to be a tight race.
There hasn't been back-to-back state champions in the 4x800m since 2007-2008 when North Penn took home the honors. State College has decided to go all-in on their title defense this season, saving their entire squad for the relay. Alex Milligan leads the charge, but this is still a completely different line-up from the one that won gold in 2014. However, this team has five runners who have run around 2:03 or faster this year, including a couple at or under 2 flat. On their home track, they have an excellent chance at defending their title.
The team that unseated the last "almost" back-to-back champs was the 2011 CB West team that stunned most with their 7:45.06 at states. The time was roughly 15 seconds faster than their seed mark from Glenn Mills. This year's 2015 CB West team was running around 8:20ish for most of the year before popping off an 8:05 4x800m and winning the Meet of Champions race at Lehigh this past weekend, catapulting them into the state title talks. Rock Fortna has had a fantastic season and he will look to continue the momentum, leading the squad at states. CB West also has a completely fresh squad slated to compete on Sunday. I'm noticing a trend.
A rapidly developing sleeper team is Altoona. They have run "just" 8:11 this season, but they have yet to run a relay with the degree of freshness expected from this squad. Brad Foust has already run 1:56 this year (he will be doubling), and Brett George has run 1:58 multiple times. Those two combined with Dom Stroh (4:31 miler and split 1:58ish last year at Penn Relays) sets the team up for their second straight sub 8 minute 4x8. They too should have a nice fan showing to rally around towards meets end.
I see these teams as the most likely squads to crack 8 minutes, but any of the 12 squads entered might be able to get there. Pennridge, Bensalem and Abington are both former state champion schools at this meet and have clocked sub 8:12 marks this year. Pennridge is doubling their best runner in Dan Williams, but Abington should have a completely fresh squad led by Neely and Good. It's been a while since we've seen either team at full strength in the 4x8, but the potential is there for both teams to return to their form of old. Bensalem is looking to bounce back after a tough run at the Meet of Champions. They have Ramirez, Mays and Shah on the roster, all hoping to chase a sub 2 mark. Strath Haven had a balanced approach of near 2 flat guys that go them down to 8:08ish already this season. With a few breakthroughs, this team can be on the medal stand as well.
Neshaminy and Wissahickon are the last remaining teams in the race after they jumped a few squads at Last Chance to earn their spot in the loaded 4x800m. Wissahickon has been helped by Kyaunde Johnson's emergence as a sub 2 leg (1:58.3 last week), but also has state qualifier in XC Lukas Marcelis and emerging young star Christopher. Andy Harmon's continued improvement has been the difference between a state team and a bunch of spectators. Neshaminy has been known for it's 400m prominence for much of the year, but this go round the team showed it's stuff in the 4x8. Dave Marrington has been a strong leg all season and Neshaminy has quietly excelled in this event.
As mentioned, with just 12 teams on the line, any of these squads could break through for the title (statement is even more true when talking about medalists). It's very up for grabs. I've gone back and forth on these predictions a variety of times. I think there are a lot of teams with excellent balance. CB West, Penncrest, Pennsbury, and LaSalle may finish the day with 4 guys sub 2. State College and Altoona have a great chance to do that as well with a few small PRs. I'm certainly a little concerned about the tired legs of Pennsbury chasing the title against so many top notch fresh relays.
The key for a Pennsbury win is their two relatively unknown legs. Webb and Sauer will be tired. They won't be able to carry this team around the track on their own so it will be up to Mulvaney and Yeger to keep the team in the mix. I think they are both very capable of doing this, but it is a solid amount of pressure for these runners.
I am a huge fan of this CB West team. I've been very close to picking them for the win about five different times during this post, but can't seem to pull the trigger. I loved what I have seen from them in the relays this year and with a fresh team on the track, they will give Pennsbury a real scare. That being said, I can't bring myself to pull the trigger. I'm worried they may not have the power to match up with Sauer and Webb if those guys are near their best and they may be a year away from the top spot.
Penncrest and LaSalle both have their own impressive one-two punches looming on fresh legs. Emmanuel and Komat will go for Penncrest and LaSalle boasts Sutton and Grant. I like Emmanuel and Komat a bit better given that the 800m is really their sweet spot. That being said, I think LaSalle has a better 3-4 punch in Price and Challingsworth. But will that be enough to beat the Penns?
State College and Altoona both have excellent squads. I think I would have a bit more confidence in a fresh Altoona squad, especially if Uliano can better his 2:03.9 from last week. I'm a big fan of George, Foust and Stroh who all have sub 2 potential in this race. But with their best leg on the double, I can't bring myself to pick them for the title. SC is an excellent squad, but they too may be a year away. Milligan has been excellent this season, but I'm thinking the winning team's anchor will have to be at least 1:56 and that might be out of his range right now.
Only time will tell exactly how this race plays out, but in the meantime here's my gut instincts on how things will unfold.
1. Pennsbury 7:52.87
2. Penncrest 7:54.05
3. CB West 7:55.18
4. LaSalle 7:55.94
5. State College 7:58.91
6. Altoona 7:58.99
7. Abington 8:01.55
8. Strath Haven 8:06.99
2015 PTFCA State Championship Predictions: 3000m
3000m
Heat 1
Dom Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
Matt McGoey, North Allegheny
Casey Comber, Horsham
Will Loevner, Winchester Thurston
Hunter Wharrey, North Allegheny
Todd Gunzenhauser, Mt Lebanon
Jack Tidball, Tunkhannock
Aaron Gebhart, New Oxford
Jacob Heinauer, North Hills
Paul Power, Spring Ford
Colin Abert, Easton
Jake Susalla, Plum
Alex Knapp, WC Henderson
The 3k and Cross Country usually correlate quite well. The skill sets overlap nicely and often times the people tough and crazy enough to run well at XC states end up gravitating to the 3k. The reigning XC champion has competed in the indoor 3k 4 times in the last 8 seasons and came away with two golds. Footlocker Finalists have won 4 of the last 8 titles and the remaining 4 title runners were 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th at AAA states.
Heat 1
Dom Hockenbury, Lake Lehman
Matt McGoey, North Allegheny
Casey Comber, Horsham
Will Loevner, Winchester Thurston
Hunter Wharrey, North Allegheny
Todd Gunzenhauser, Mt Lebanon
Jack Tidball, Tunkhannock
Aaron Gebhart, New Oxford
Jacob Heinauer, North Hills
Paul Power, Spring Ford
Colin Abert, Easton
Jake Susalla, Plum
Alex Knapp, WC Henderson
The 3k and Cross Country usually correlate quite well. The skill sets overlap nicely and often times the people tough and crazy enough to run well at XC states end up gravitating to the 3k. The reigning XC champion has competed in the indoor 3k 4 times in the last 8 seasons and came away with two golds. Footlocker Finalists have won 4 of the last 8 titles and the remaining 4 title runners were 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th at AAA states.
So when analyzing this year's 3k field, it was no surprise to see a large amount of XC talent on the roster. Matt McGoey is the top runner from AAA states to opt for 3k after finishing 4th at states. He is joined by the 5th-6th-8th-11th-12th-17th in AAA, the District 3 AAA champ, the AA state champ and the A 4th place finisher. That's a talented group of kids.
Dominic Hockenbury comes in as the top seed in this race after being the top PA finisher at 2 of the 3 best 3k fields the state assembled. He has run 8:38 this year, placing him about 8-10 seconds ahead of his closest rivals and he already holds two career state golds as just a a junior. Hock someone managed to fly under the radar this past XC season, thanks to a flurry of fast times, an excellent AAA field and Griffin Molino being Griffin. But Hockenbury was able to dominate practically ever race he laced up for against PA competition within the last 10 months. And half of that was as a sophomore finding his footing among the state's elite. This is the ultimate opportunity for Hockenbury to show just how good he is. There can be no one who says, "well does that state title even count since it was AA?" if he takes this gold.
But the title is far from Hock's, even after arguably his three biggest competitors scratched for the DMR. Casey Comber was PA's best XC runner when we hit the end of November, as the Hatboro Horham senior did something that state champs Sam Hibbs and Conner Quinn never did: qualified for the Footlocker Finals. Since then, Comber has had an incredible season, running 4:22 and sub 8:50. He's running better right now then Sam Hibbs (eventual indoor 3k runner up), thanks in part to some epic duals with Jake Brophy. I'm going to miss seeing those two together at states, but I'm not sure Comber will.
Much like Hatboro Horsham, North Allegheny has a rich history in cross country and the longer distances. In 2011, Ryan Gil brought NA a long awaited team title and then won the indoor 3000m. Could McGoey do the same? Seriously though, I need to can it with the Gil comparisons. McGoey has carved out an excellent legacy for himself, running sub 15:50 at states, leading his team to gold at states, running 9:12 last spring and now concluding his second straight season as the unquestioned #1 runner in the WPIAL. He dominated a 3k that included 5 other state qualifiers this past weekend in 8:46, perhaps earning himself favorite status for this Sunday.
The field goes deep this year, all 13 runners are under 9 minutes coming in and each has serious potential to drop. Will Loevner has run under 8:50 this year as well and won another incredible WPIAL 3k just before MoC. Loevner was the runner up in the AA 3200m last spring and he too led his team to state gold this past XC season (Winchester Thurston turned into one of the best small school teams ever in a span of two weeks when everyone returned from injury. It was unreal).
Hunter Wharrey, McGoey's partner in crime, is well under 9 minutes this year for 3k as well. He has battled well with guys like Heinauer and Gunzenhauser as well Jake Susalla, who comes in a bit of the others seed times, but gaining momentum quickly.
Burdette champions Paul Power and Colin Abert will try to recapture that December magic in this race. Power will have his work cut out for him as he tries the difficult mile-3k double, but he is a strong tough runner. Abert has had his fair share of ups and downs the past few months but one thing is for sure: the kid is a huge talent. If he has the right day, he will leave lots of runners shaking in their boots.
Alex Knapp, Jack Tidball and Aaron Gebhart round out the 13 man field. Knapp's SB dates all the way back to Yale and he hasn't touched the 3k since. That may mean he has the potential to surprise. He has been working on his speed recently for the DM and that may pay off as he moves back more into his comfort zone at 3000. Aaron Gebhart is a strong runner in the midst of his first real indoor season. He always seems to run tough and is out for redemption after his state meet in cross. Last is super sleeper Jack Tidball. He very quietly ran 8:52 in a low key meet (pulling his teammate to an awesome 9:02 as well). Tidball was 9th at AA states and has knows #1 seed Dominic Hockenbury well from their XC days. He will be pursuing a top spot and Tunkhannock legend Reece Ayer's 3k finish/time.
The simple fact of the matter is, there are only 13 guys in the field. So everyone is in the medal hunt. And clearly based on what I outlined above, everyone is talented enough to earn themselves some hardware.
Here's what worries me a bit. There have been a lot of 3ks run in recent weeks (as necessitated by the new qualifying system) so guys have been running a lot lf 3ks back to back, which scares me. Three or four hard 3ks in a row really worries me, so we will see how all of that fatigue effects the runners this weekend.
As far as I'm concerned, this might be the most compelling series of story lines of any race. I think the title is going to one of Hockenbury, Comber or McGoey. Each has such a fascinating plot line for why they are due/deserve this title. All three have been on a roll for months, dating back really to the Summer. I literally haven't been able to pick.
Ultimately, I'm making the brutal decision to pick CC for the win in a thrilling race. I think it's just his time. All the battles with Brophy and hard fought seconds have made him a better runner. He likely learned a lot about himself from his Footlocker experience as well. The Norris comparisons are there (although I'm not expecting the 8:20s mark that Norris posted).
Plus, if things come down to a sprint finish, his 4:22 run at Last Chance gives me some confidence in his speed (although McGoey likely has some speed up his sleeve). Comber's training seems to line him up nicely to pop somethig this Sunday.
I got Hock holding for two and McGoey three, but that's brutally interchangeable. It was hard to pick between all of these guys.
After that I think Gebhart is most likely to sneak in and break up the top group. He's a bit fresher without as many hard 3ks, plus he has shown steady improvement. Plus Caleb Gatchell pretty much had me wanted to elect him president, so I'm rooting for the Geb. Shamelessly bias as usual.
Here's how I see the full medalists breaking out:
1 Casey Comber 8:35.42
2 Dom Hockenbury 8:36.10
3 Matt McGoey 8:36.88
4 Aaron Gebhart 8:48.21
5 Colin Abert 8:49.70
6 Jake Susalla 8:52.73
7 Alex Knapp 8:54.11
8 Todd Gunzenhauser 8:55.91
2015 PTFCA State Championship Predictions: 800m
800m
Heat 1
Dan Williams, Pennridge
Derron Terrell, Penn Hills
Connor Holm, Radnor
Noah Falasco, Upper Merion
Quentin Francis, Neuman Goretti
Ata Shahideh, CB East
Alex Lindsey, Upper Moreland
Kevin Hong, Upper Darby
Heat 2
Michael Strosko, Canon-Mac
Matt Wisner, Carlisle
Nick Wagner, Penn Trafford
Brett Wolfinger, Quakertown
Brook Wilson, Central York
Kamil Jihad, Chester
Julian Degroot-Lutzner, Masterman
Andrew Koryak, Vincentian Academy
Heat 3
Sam Ritz, GA
John Lewis, Cheltenham
Elias Graca, Fox Chapel
Alek Sauer, Pennsbury
Dylan Eddinger, Boyertown
Brad Foust, Altoona
Khai Samuels, Pleasant Valley
Brian Hackman, St. Joesph's Academy
Last year I sat in a classroom at Muhlenberg College and watched a live webcast of the state championship (big shout to ForrestCRN for the hookup). I've had the priveldge of watching a variety of state championship runs, mostly on TV or online, but the 800m races indoors and outdoors in 2014 may have been the best I've ever seen. It's important to note that I myself am I former 800m runner and so I naturally love the event. Kyle Francis is probably the 2nd best 800m runner that I've seen come through the state (behind Tom Mallon) and he had two of the more gutsy performances I've seen in any event at those two state championships. Throw in Wiseman and Logue, two other all time greats, and then fields with guys like Smart, Cather, Brehm, Sauer, etc. and you have some all time great races. Naturally, I thought that was the peak, that those races were as good as it gets. But that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.
The final domino fell neatly into place for a fantastic state title bout in the 800m this past Saturday. Defending state champion in the 400m John Lewis had an uncharacteristically off day in the open 400m and ended up third. Obviously Lewis could run better and still would likely be the favorite in the 400m at the state championships; however, this race made it obvious to Lewis and his coach that his best (and possibly favorite) event was the 800m. So with that in mind, Cheltenham decided to throw 1:50.01 man John Lewis (who has already run 1:52.8 and split 1:51 this season) into the open 800m. Not only is the state title race now much more interesting, but the state record suddenly appears to be in jeopardy for potentially the 6th straight season.
Heat 1
Dan Williams, Pennridge
Derron Terrell, Penn Hills
Connor Holm, Radnor
Noah Falasco, Upper Merion
Quentin Francis, Neuman Goretti
Ata Shahideh, CB East
Alex Lindsey, Upper Moreland
Kevin Hong, Upper Darby
Heat 2
Michael Strosko, Canon-Mac
Matt Wisner, Carlisle
Nick Wagner, Penn Trafford
Brett Wolfinger, Quakertown
Brook Wilson, Central York
Kamil Jihad, Chester
Julian Degroot-Lutzner, Masterman
Andrew Koryak, Vincentian Academy
Heat 3
Sam Ritz, GA
John Lewis, Cheltenham
Elias Graca, Fox Chapel
Alek Sauer, Pennsbury
Dylan Eddinger, Boyertown
Brad Foust, Altoona
Khai Samuels, Pleasant Valley
Brian Hackman, St. Joesph's Academy
Last year I sat in a classroom at Muhlenberg College and watched a live webcast of the state championship (big shout to ForrestCRN for the hookup). I've had the priveldge of watching a variety of state championship runs, mostly on TV or online, but the 800m races indoors and outdoors in 2014 may have been the best I've ever seen. It's important to note that I myself am I former 800m runner and so I naturally love the event. Kyle Francis is probably the 2nd best 800m runner that I've seen come through the state (behind Tom Mallon) and he had two of the more gutsy performances I've seen in any event at those two state championships. Throw in Wiseman and Logue, two other all time greats, and then fields with guys like Smart, Cather, Brehm, Sauer, etc. and you have some all time great races. Naturally, I thought that was the peak, that those races were as good as it gets. But that doesn't seem to be the case anymore.
The final domino fell neatly into place for a fantastic state title bout in the 800m this past Saturday. Defending state champion in the 400m John Lewis had an uncharacteristically off day in the open 400m and ended up third. Obviously Lewis could run better and still would likely be the favorite in the 400m at the state championships; however, this race made it obvious to Lewis and his coach that his best (and possibly favorite) event was the 800m. So with that in mind, Cheltenham decided to throw 1:50.01 man John Lewis (who has already run 1:52.8 and split 1:51 this season) into the open 800m. Not only is the state title race now much more interesting, but the state record suddenly appears to be in jeopardy for potentially the 6th straight season.
But nothing will come easy for Lewis this weekend. For starters, Sam Ritz will be toeing the line (off the double from the mile) and he currently holds the fastest time in the state this year at 1:52.81, in a race where he found the gears to outkick Lewis to the line and grab gold. With the mile in his legs and a likely grueling double looming, it's going to be tough for Ritz. The last person to pull of the double successfully, did it about as well as you could: Wade Endress took double gold back in 2011, running his 800m final in 1:51.7.
In addition to the two 1:52 men, Pennsburg's Alek Sauer and Fox Chapel's Elias Graca are both poised for a state title run this season. Graca is in the middle of a fantastic winter that, if not for an unfortunate lap counting moment, would have been an undefeated stretch in the 800m. Graca is looking to break a huge drought in the indoor 800m for the western squads, the WPIAL hasn't captured a title at this event in roughly a decade. Graca's 1:53.1 from the SPIRE Invite is technically the fastest time in PA this year (as in 2015).
Alek Sauer has been the star of Pennsbury's excellent 4x8 this season, anchoring the relay in 1:52.61 a few weeks back. Sauer was an outdoor individual medalist at 800m last season, a fact no one else in the field can boast. However, Sauer will have something to prove on Sunday at PSU after falling to miler Billy McDevitt at the Meet of Champions 800m. With the quality of the field, Sauer's closing speed could be important, however he will need to survive the fast early pace expected thanks to Lewis's apparence.
Don't sleep on Dylan Eddinger ladies and gentlemen. Eddinger has steered clear of the open 8 since his 1:56.61 at F&M (an excellent time for that track). Keep in mind he dominated that race on a slower track than many of the other top seeds ran their bests. Shawn Wolfe had his big race at F&M around 1:58 or so in 2013 and then dropped down around 1:55 when he landed in the hot heat at PSU. 1:54 or even 1:53 is not completely out of the question for Eddinger.
Brad Foust made the decision to drop the mile (an event he excelled in at Kevin Dare) in favor of the 800m after he won in impressive fashion at state college invite (1:56.5). He has the strength to hang tough in this race based on his XC credentials, but will need to prove his speed a bit more after his first breakthrough last week.
Rounding out the hot heat are Khai Samuels and Brian Hackman. Samuels ran 1:57 early in the year (December technically) at Burdette, going toe to toe with Alek Sauer. He's been quite since and has chosen to try the mile-8 double like Ritz, a risky move certainly given how fast this hot heat may be taken out. Hackman boasts a 1:57 time from SPIRE as well and has made huge strides this season after an excellent cross season. He's run a variety of races at PSU tracks this year which should give him nice comfort level here. However, he's a bit unpoven against this crop of top tier names. He will look to change that this weekend.
1:56ish is usually strong enough to keep you in the hunt or medals and most of the time multiple hardware earners are found in the slower sections. Similar to the mile, people in the slow heats have all the incentive to chase a fast time and throw tactics out the window. That could be huge this weekend.
In Heat 1, Dan Williams from Pennridge could be a sleeper. He's run sub 2 minutes a few times this year and is running in an excellent system over at Pennridge. Connor Holm had a big day in the slow heat last season, earning a medal for his efforts. Both guys are dangerous. Also keep an eye on deep sleeper Ata Shahideh from CB East. I like his potential if he can handle the big stage. He has already beaten Williams once this season and really hasn't had a chance to show off in the open events in a long time.
In Heat 2, Matt Wisner jumps out as a name who could pop off a huge race. He has been consistently winning against solid fields, including a mile win last week and an 800m win at PTFCA just before. He chose to focus on just one event, the 8, and I think that choice may pay big dividends on Sunday. Also sure to compete well from this heat are WPIAL men Mike Strosko and Nick Wagner. Wagner just won the triState title in 1:58.07 as just a sophomore. Strosko ran one of the fastest times of the year at the tricky to pace Edinboro track. Andrew Koryak is a AA medalist last outdoors who also can run strong for the WPIAL. Don't sleep on Brook Wikson either. He's run very quickly from the slow heat before, and this time he's slotted to see top notch competition, unlike the Carnival heat he dominated earlier. Heat 2 is loaded and I'd be very surprised if they don't produce at least 2 medalists in the overall standings.
The most likely candidates, in my opinion, to emerge from Heat 2 with medals are Matt Wisner and Brook Wilson. I'm on the Wisner bandwagon this season and think he could really fly in the right race. Wilson's potential intrigues me considering his fastest time came almost completely uncontested. The WPIAL crew is dangerous, by I think Wagner may be a year away. Strosko and Koryak are just behind Wilson in my eyes, but they could easily flip that script.
I've gone back and forth on my fast heat predictions, as I think this race could be one to remember. I'm leaning towards a big bounce back race for Lewis after a disappointing run at MoCs. He has the hunger and motivation to make the stadium quake cheering for a record run. He has the best overall speed and the best PR by roughly 2.5 seconds counting his 1:50.01 from last summer.
But I'm a bit worried about Lewis and very intrigued by the potential of Graca. He ran fantastic at the SPIRE meet and has his own disappointment to overcome this weekend. If he can hang tough with Lewis and run fearless, I think he can pull of the W.
Sauer is a true danger for the title as well. He has a fantastic close in him I'm sure. That being said, the last time he came to this meet he finished out of the medals, disappointed. He's hungry to change things and is a lot stronger than he was last year at this time.
Ritz has a grueling double on his plate. He could prove me wrong and shove two golds in my face this weekend based on his out of this world talent, but I'm my sure he has an Endress like day in him. Ritz is faster than Endress, and fresh may be able to run 1:51 or faster, but Wade was an animal on that day in 2011. A pure freak performance and a truly absurd doubler during his career. Plus he had the hometown crowd on his side in Altoona.
Ultimately, I think the pace is quick early, but Lewis falls off a bit late, leaving the door open for Graca to steal the win. A hard closing Sauer makes up enough ground to sneak out 2nd.
1 Elias Graca 1:52.60
2 Alek Sauer 1:53.49
3 John Lewis 1:53.60
4 Dylan Eddinger 1:55.11
5 Matt Wisner 1:55.79
6 Sam Ritz 1:55.92
7 Brook Wilson 1:56.65
8 Nick Wagner 1:56.99
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