The individual distance events are always a grind at the PA state championships and the road for those who are running fast in January is an especially long and grueling ride. This year's class of state champions is perhaps the best group we have seen ever. Tony Russell won the state mile, just missing the state meet record, but ran a 4:07 split and 4:11 open mile to ensure his place at #1 All-Time in the PA indoor record books. Kyle Francis led wire to wire at the state championships, dominating an elite field with his own PA state record of 1:50.55, placing him #4 All-Time in national history. Colin Martin basically soloed the second half of his race and ran 8:30, one of the best marks in state history and one of the largest margins of victory in recent memory. He then went on to run a 14:49 which may be a state record for 5000m indoors (they don't really keep that stat anywhere, but I'd imagine it is very, very high on the list). Thus we have 3 of the best runners ever at their events looking to defend their state titles outdoors.
History says they won't do it.
Since 2008, there have been three individual distance champions a year, meaning that there have been a total of 18 state champs in the distance events (not including this years crop) during that time period. Of those 18, only 2 of them have successfully defended their titles outdoors, about 11%. That means the expected yearly value of successful title defendants is 0.33 out of 3.
In fairness, this statistic is somewhat skewed. For starters, in 2010 Tom Mallon won the mile at indoor states, but chose not to contest that event outdoors. Instead he won a state title in the 800m (his third straight) and set a state meet record in the process. He certainly wasn't suffering any indoor curse.
Also keep in mind that independent school runners can't defend their title outdoors because they do not compete in the PIAA. Three different independent league runners have won indoor state championships since 2008 (Max Kaulbach, Ivo Milic-Straklj, and Dustin Wilson).
But even counting Mallon's mile/8 wins and leaving out the independents we are looking at just 3 out of 15 successful title defenses, still just 20% of the time. Only Tom Mallon (2009 and 2010) and Jack Huemmler (2013) have managed to defending their titles since 2008. No one has successfully snagged gold in both the 3k and the 3200m in the same year since Jason Weller did it back in 2007.
It's clear that it's hard to maintain top fitness year long. That's why these guys struggle to hold on to the unbelievable fitness it takes to win a state title all year long. It's possible no doubt, but not easy. Ned Willig and Ryan Gil suffered through health issues that kept them out of the state championships altogether when trying to defend their title. Wade Endress, Dustin Wilson, Elliot Rhodes and Max Norris have all had to work through health issues in their attempt to defend their state titles. These kind of facts are disconcerting. That's at least 7 out of 18 guys (Endress counts twice) with reported health issues, and that's just the reported ones.
Plus the competition just gets stronger outdoors. You introduce more talent into the equation. Zach Brehm won the 800m last spring after not contesting indoors. The District 7 guys and District 3 guys improve much more efficiently over the course of outdoors relative to indoors where training and quality competition is inconsistent.
Looking ahead to outdoors, all three of these runners have to be the favorites, but none are the top returner in their event looking ahead. In the 1600m, the top returner is Kevin Moy, Tony Russell's teammate, who finished 5th a year ago. In the 800m it is the aforementioned Zach Brehm and the 3200m is another defending champion, Ethan Martin.
What do all of these guys have in common? None of them were indoors state medalists. They all will be hungry coming back with something to prove. Perhaps they will be a little fresher after a less grueling winter and they certainly know what it takes to have success at the state meet.
Ironically, if you use the top returner spot from outdoors in the 3 big distance events (only AAA boys) you see the following trend:
The top returner has won just 4 out of 18 (22%) times since 2008 (twice being Mallon once again)
So really between those two stats, we can confirm we have no idea what will happen at this years state championships.
Anything is possible.
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