By Jarrett
Felix
Since the PCL was added to the PIAA
in 2008, they have been guaranteed a total of 14 AAA team qualifiers at the
cross country state championship. In that time, they have produced 15 top 10
teams. For those of you who aren’t doing the math at home, that’s 107%. In
other words, every year the District 12 qualifier(s) finishes in the top 10
teams and, in 2012, when they were only guaranteed one spot, LaSalle made it to
states by taking all five individual places. And then, with just five runners,
finished 5th at states. As Professor Quirrell would say, “What is
this magic?!”
In 2008 and 2009, the automatic
qualifiers were LaSalle and St. Joe’s Prep, but since then it’s been all
Cardinal O’Hara and LaSalle, two teams that will make their invitational debut
at the Briarwood Invitational this coming weekend. In 7 trips to Hershey,
LaSalle has averaged a little better than 6th place. In 7 trips to
Hershey, O’Hara has averaged about 5th place. However, if you remove
their 18th place finish in 2009 (they, like LaSalle, qualified by
getting five individual spots to states and the PCL sent three teams!), they’ve
averaged about 3rd place. That’s nuts. Both are projected to be top
10 teams again in 2016 and return a strong contingent from 4th and 6th
place finishes a year ago.
LaSalle has been ranked as high as
the #1 spot depending on who you ask (shout out to our anonymous commenter for
the rankings) and, after producing a varsity squad with seven guys under seventeen at Hershey, it’s easy to see what’s to
like. They are (if you will excuse my language, catholic schools) a gosh darn
army. Seriously, where do they all come from? LaSalle just shows up to that
random indoor meet at Haverford and throws down with like 20 sub 5 minute guys.
On the other hand, I wouldn’t quite
describe O’Hara as an “army”. Probably more like Wolverine from X-Men. You
think they’re wounded and then they just magically recover just as strong as
ever. Just before states last fall, O’Hara seemed like a borderline top 10 team
at best. Then they came out and got 6th, knocking on the doors of 5th.
Then, just in case you were still skeptical, they won indoor states in the DMR.
Somebody may want to check Coach Kennedy for claws.
The rivalry between these two teams
renews at the Briarwood Invitational this coming weekend and we will finally
get to see where the army and Wolverine stack up in the team rankings. I’m
particularly interested to see this result as I have no clue how strong I think
either team will be this year. There’s a reason I left all the teams without
invite experience of my first edition of the list and it wasn’t so much about
fairness as it was about avoiding wild speculation that could make me look bad
in the long run.
But as much as Briarwood is about
history and tradition and rivalry and all the stuff knights of the round table
might have been into, we can’t forget about the defending champions. Yes,
Central Bucks West, who finished 3rd at the state championships a
year ago, is on the registered entrants list to return to Belmont Plateau for a
rematch with the PCL and their own rivals, Central Bucks East. And just like
LaSalle and O’Hara, CB West has yet to race an invitational yet and determine their
place on the team rankings.
West loses their top two runners
from states a year ago, both of whom finished in the medals. But they do have a
nice group of returners including top 50 finisher Ben Smullen plus 3200m stand
outs Brian Mass and Ben Bunch. But what was intriguing to me was the fact that
Teagan Fortna and Alec Hofer, two of the team’s key pieces in the 4x8, were the
top two runners at the recent CBW-Quakertown duel (not to be confused with
dual).
Yet when it comes to directionally
named Central Bucks schools, East has been capturing the interest of
Pennsylvania much more thoroughly than the (metaphorical) bronze medal winners
a year ago. Sophomores David Endres, Sean Lehetta, Cade Sands and Cole Sands
have been big parts of East’s climb up the on paper state rankings (did
Milesplit say they were #1 the other day?). They are young and, despite two
dominant wins, the general consensus is they are unproven. Briarwood will serve
as a huge chance to silence the doubters.
And lastly, we have Council Rock
North. The Pilgrims (I decided CRN will now have the team name Pilgrims) looked
strong in their opener at PTXC and should be a nice benchmark for the schools
who have yet to race a big invite. This team is undeniably strong and has three
runners who could be in the mix for a top 5 to 10 finish out front. If they
leave Briarwood with a convincing enough win, they will definitely move into my
top two overall in the state rankings. On the flip side, all the other teams
will likely have North targeted as the school to beat to improve their own
state rankings.
I might be overselling the whole “state
rankings” thing, but also I just made my first state ranking post so I’m
feeling a little obnoxiously self-promotional.
Last year, the top 5 teams at this
meet were, in order, CB West-LaSalle-CB East-O’Hara-CR North. Those teams
finished 3rd-4th-8th-6th-5th
at states. That’s pretty legit for an early season invitational. Of course, in
2012 the top PA schools from Briarwood finished 2nd-1st-3rd-6th-(DNQ)-5th.
So the 2016 edition of the meet still has something to chase.
I won’t hash out an intense
individual preview, but here are some guys who are in or around my current XC Top
50 that you may want to keep an eye out for in the various races:
Ryan
James, O’Hara (ET #16)
David
Endres, CB East (ET #45)
Bryan
Keller, CR North (ET #30)
Ryan
Campbell, CR North (ET #44)
James
Abrahams, Haverford (ET #28)
Callahan
Lennon, HG Prep (NR)
Evan
Addison, LaSalle (ET #32)
Rusty
Kujdych, Neshaminy (ET #9)
Liam
Galligan, Springfield (ET #10)
Evan
Hutton, William Tennent (NR)
Sure, that’s not much of a preview,
but, to be fair, I am currently drinking a yogurt because I am too lazy to just
get up and grab a spoon. So, really, this was kind of impressive.
Forrest's Quick Top 10 (will complete a longer one next week). Sticking with Etrain on this and just rolling with teams who have raced, in invitationals so far this season.
ReplyDelete1. Carlisle
This team's top 3 is even better than i expected, and could very likely have 3 medalists this season with Issac Kole looking very strong. A developing 5-6 tandem really helps this group out as well. Affolder's are racing as expected.
2. CR North
Pretty satisfied with their opening to the season. 17:06 average on a much hotter day than last year shows nice potential and i expect to see Campbell have a much better race this week. and do not sleep on 4 time varsity runner Tim Haas' experience. Pretty high on how the 6-7 development is gong as well.
3. North Allegheny
Really filthy pack. Like 7.6 seconds is gorgeous running and we saw fantastic development from some of the squad's members who were JV last season into the top 2 spots. Not sure how i feel about nobody breaking 17 though, so i place them in 3rd for now.
4. Cumberland Valley
I'm in great agreement with Etrain here on how they are quite similar to CR North from 2011/2012. I think this team could be very strong and catch a top 7 finish at states if they run consistent. I cannot stress the consistency enough for this squad. They are barely clinging above these next few teams, but really great opening to the season. Was a mistake leaving them off the original top 10 and i struggled with that.
5. Parkland
As you all know i'm quite high on this team and the opening impressed me quite a bit. Especially the development of Nick Bower. It's tough to have all of your top 3 on their game with such a hot day and I think Morgan will be much improved come early October.
6. State College
As I stated, loving this top 4. I think it will do them very well later on in the season, but the 5th man worries me very much. That being said Owen Isham and Michael Etter's potentials are really sky high right now. Clearly I did not give this team enough credit in the pre-season either.
7. DT West
I liked the depth we saw this past weekend, but I do not trust the 2 mile races enough to have them higher on this list right now.
8. Spring Ford
Nice pack, doing some solid work right now. Hoping to see them again soon in a bigger invitational.
9. CB East
I was a bit too high on them with my preseason rankings. the excitement over the sophomores may have gotten the best of me, but I like the Endres is becoming a strong #1. I think we'll see Schultz move up more in the coming weeks and this squad will look much better. Not going to kick them out of the top 10 yet.
10. Mount Lebo
Did not expect Mt. Lebo to have such a strong opening this season. I thought maybe they would pull together some pieces, but wow. That JV win is huge as well. I really cannot stress enough what it means to beat NA's JV squad.
Just Missed:
Dallas -- I know they lost to Mechanicsberg as well this weekend who have such a strong top 2, but I think this team just had a really rough day. I still have faith they'll be in this top 10 come seasons end. If I were to have combined team rankings as the beginning of the season I would have had them either 9th or 10th, so they stick close here as well.
Mitchell Etter from State College fractured his foot two miles into the Spiked Shoe race and is out for the season. He had massive potential...
Deletetragic :/ i hope he heals soon
DeleteTBH:
ReplyDeleteReally was not buying Liam Galligan at the beginning of this season, but he ran very smart today at Briarwood to take down Rusty and James. He's going to be dangerous at districts and states with his speed and clear ability to run hills.
--ForrestCRN
CB East wins D1, O'Hara wins Championship at Briarwood
ReplyDeleteO'Hara looked quite strong at Briarwood with a score of 71 points! LaSalle with 76! CRN's Tim Haas dropped out and Ethan Koza (usual #4) did not race. If you place Haas in 14th (right behind LaSalle's Brendan Price) and place Koza in an uncharacteristic 5th spot around 20th place they score 68 points and take the win. So far inconsistent running from this squad with Ryan Campbell being the big dog today. That being said, last year he raced horribly the first two meets of the season. Hoping Koza is not injured, but it was nice to see 3 young guys racing for CRN as well (only Keller and Haas will graduate from this top 8)
ReplyDeleteAlso little note that Earley ran 18:20 here last year (and campbell ran 18:16) so looking at these sophomores running 18:23 and 18:33 is a good sign, in my opinion. I think we'll see the whole top 7 under 17:30 at states. But big shout out to Earley who had a very strong race just 31 seconds back from Campbell. If we see a 30 second spread from this team, WOW.
DeleteBut if Koza is injured it could be difficult for this team to grab a state title or a top 3 spot.
Unionville took down Henderson today. Chesmonts is looking like DTW, AG, UV, WCE, WCH.
ReplyDeleteI’m really trying to figure out this NA team right now, and maybe Bordman can give us a little insight. I think that the coach is purposefully packing everyone together right now and we’ll see more out of Greco in the coming weeks as a bit more of a front runner. That being said, lets look at the progression of the teams average at this invitational with that of their average at states.
ReplyDelete2016 – 17:15 (4th Place)
States – Unknown
2015 – 16:37 (2nd place)
States – 16:25 (2nd Place)
2014 – 16:24 (4th Place)
States –16:21 (1st Place)
2013 – 16:37 (4th Place)
States – 16:47 (2nd Place)
2012 – 16:35 (1st Place)
States – 16:51 (4th Place) – Seamus Love (3/4 man) loses shoe. 16:45 would be about the team average.
2011 – 16:37 (1st Place)
States – 16:52 (3rd Place)
2010 – 16:29 (1st Place)
States – 16:45 (1st Place)
Since Rad Gunzenhauser (Mt. Lebo) decided to try out the Ohio competition in 2009 placing second overall, NA has turned to this difficult course to try out their chops. In recent years the states course has gotten much faster, so we see a trend of about 10-15 second difference from Bordman to Hershey in the beginning of the decade, but recently it has been trending toward the team losing time (3 seconds in 2014 and 12 in 2015). It shows a difference in training blocks as well (how hard the team is working out going into the meet). This being said a drop in about 15 seconds would be fantastic for NA to get down to about a 17 flat average at the state meet.
What that means for this years team title picture? I have been looking at average time and since North Penn won in 2011 we have not seen a team with a lower team average win this race. This being presented, I currently believe Carlisle will have about a 16:20-16:25 average (this is with Noah Affolder running about 15:10 to 15:20). CR North with everyone healthy I have between 16:32 and 16:37. Haven’t been able to do solid calculations for O’Hara and LaSalle, but it seems those teams will also be under 17 minutes.
What does this mean for North Allegheny? How much will this 9 second pack improve? What could it mean for them at the state meet? I am currently surprised with the overall performances because I very much expected them to be a sub 17 average squad and nobody on the team has broken 17 minutes yet. Are they holding back just a little bit, not showing their whole hand?
That’s all for now Folks!
--ForrestCRN
You can't be doubting NA. They always come through.
Deletenot doubting NA! just trying to throw out some questions :)
DeleteNice win by OH at Briarwood but their 4-7 really need to drop for them to be any kind of a top 10 threat at states. What happened to CRN, somebody was saying they were awesome but they only squeaked out 4th.
ReplyDeleteBiased much? That CRN team has been talked up too much and ranked here as high as 2nd in the state and then they finished 4th at Briarwood. Even with all the excuses of who didn't run or who might be injured it's still 4th at an invitational that didn't have Carsile, DTW, NA, Avon Grove, State College or CBE. They're a nice team but very overrated here as usual.
ReplyDeleteIf someone mentions Avon Grove with this tier of teams one more time I'm going to have an angry breakdown
DeleteAvon Grove is legit. They ran a tough race at Bulldog, one of the more difficult invitationals out there. Watch out D1!
DeleteDo you mean difficult in terms of the course, or the competition? The course is known for running notoriously fast, and the competition was lackluster at best.
DeleteThe course, of course! It's named after a hurricane for a reason!
DeleteBulldog? Hurricane? What?
DeleteAG is on a long list of schools entered in Paul short in two weekends. If they do actually run there we should learn a lot about what their team is actually made of.
DeleteAs if D3 wasn't crazy enough with Carlisle, CV, etc. Twin Valley had a great day at Briarwood, finishing 2nd. They don't have a low stick, but they have a very similar look to North Allegheny in respect to their pack.
ReplyDeleteChanges to Etrain's list:
ReplyDelete-As I mentioned last week, Galligan has been slept on. Well no longer. I know it's hard to put him ahead of the guys that are already there, but you can't not make the argument for him being in the top 6.
-That being said, beautiful run by Dahl. He's just an all-around incredible runner imo.
-I think Hutton earned his way on to the top 50 after hanging with the big dogs at Briarwood.
-The boys from O'Hara, Inglis and P. James, have a day! Strong argument for being on this list.
-Endres ran a race for his team today. I don't know exactly what that entails as I say that, but he did.
-Addison did nothing to raise or lower his stock.
-Abrahams could move up a little
-That 12-16 tier needs to move ahead of Mackey until he puts in a legitimate race.
Forsythe 16:03 at Galion XC Festival on saturday. Will be interesting to see Forsythe vs. Mackey next week at Foundation.
ReplyDeleteWeek 3 updated ranking:
ReplyDelete1. Carlisle - move up a spot. Top 4 is solid. The key is how 5-6 progress and it appears they have done that
2 COH. Top 3 solid. There is a big gap with runner 5 which is concerning but he has the ability to run much better.
3. LaSalle: Dropped 2 spots. 1st big race and top 3 running slower than expected. I expect them to pick up and 4-7 to continue to run as a pack
4. CRN: Missing some key members in Briarwood. Hopefully, no injuries.
5. DW: It appears last year's experience is helping this team. Super deep
6. CV: Liking this team. Can make a case to have them in the top 5
7. NA: This being NA I was expecting someone to step up by week 3. It has not happened.
8: Springford: I'm thinking they should be rank higher. This is a team to watch out for.
9. CBE: Continues to run well week after week.
CRN still too high, they might not make it out of D1.
DeleteReally. So where do you think they should be? They did well in states last year and have made states almost every single year and lost only one to graduation. Who are your top 5 picks in D1?
DeleteSpringford, CBE, DTW, CBW, AG
DeleteAs long as CRN does not suffer any injuries, they should remain in the championship discussion.
DeleteStill a long season and some teams are good at peaking at the right time. CRN has proved they can do that, but at this point are not performing well.
DeleteCRN might be around in D1 many qualifiers, but they're not top 5 in PA
DeletePlease explain why you think Avon Grove makes it out of D1. Was this based on one invitational race? To make it out of D1, TEAM average has been around 16:25. I guess I don't see this coming from this team based on that one race and their prior credentials.
DeleteDTW and BS had a meet on Wednesday and Josh Hoey came in 5th overall losing to four West runners??? What's up with that?
ReplyDeleteHe knew his team wasn't winning, heard he jogged alongside an old teammate from west that he's friendly with.
DeleteDTW completely dominated BS. BS probably knew going in they had little chance so they treated it lightly to make it seem like they weren't really trying. These dual meets need to be made to count somehow.
DeleteSeriously? WTH?
DeleteI really like what Forrest had to say about COH a while back:
ReplyDelete"After a 6th place finish last season Cardinal O’Hara will once again be fighting to keep many teams off its back for another top 6 finish. With a senior heavy squad this might be one of the last dominant years for O’Hara after what has been a really brilliant stretch since I believe 2010. Ryan James is a total “baller” as etrain would say on the grass. He is gutsy, he’s got the stamina, and he's packing some heat. Despite not having the track chops of his older brother Kevin, he might break 16 at Hershey, which Kevin never did. Behind him there was a continuous battle last season between his twin Patrick, Donovan, and Inglis. Patrick had a poor states race, but this team still managed to beak the 6-9 team point pack. After a 4:25 on the spring he’ll be looking to lead these other two under the 17 minute barrier at Hershey for some low team points that they’ll greatly need.
The 5th man battle has nice 3 way competition, which is extremely helpful to boost runners up the charts. It seems as though Delco’s is similar if not a few seconds faster than Hershey in terms of jumps for these runners two weeks later, so I think at least one of these 3 will be able to run about 17:30. There are lots of variables in terms of team performance around O’Hara, but I think we’ll see consistent running from them down the stretch."
"He [Ryan James] might break 16 at Hershey, which Kevin never did." Where did you get that quote from? Anyone that even remotely follows cross county should know that Kevin James ran 15:38 for second his senior year at States, which would be the course record if Jake Brophy didn't run 15:24
Deletehahah, that mistake was cleared up on the earlier post as well. i was thinking about Kevin James' junior year race when he placed 3rd right behind Ross Wilson (both did not break 16).
DeleteI think Patrick and Inglis' races this weekend were pretty huge. in my opinion they won't beat anyone in north's top 3 come the state meet, but as for right now I think they're really strong and their 5th man battle is similar to what I expected. I think this team could put on to place 4th overall. Really interesting to see how they land against DTW and NA.
Lasalle's back looked legit though. All 7 runners in the top 30 this weekend is very impressive. They would have tied CRN without their 3-4 runners, while O'Hara would have scored 139 points. Looking at depth LaSalle and CRN are a bit ahead of O'Hara, but I think all 3 of these teams will continue to make pretty big jumps across the season. Delco's and District 12 racing is going to be extremely competitive.
--ForrestCRN
Three big meets this upcoming weekend: Foundation, Carlisle and CRN invites. Just about every top runner and team will be in action on familiar courses so a lot of this debate should be resolved.
ReplyDeleteI agree. We should have a better idea of rankings by that time and mid season form of each team. Honestly, it's a bit difficult to rank teams based on one performance. I'm biased with D1 since I see them a lot, so it would be nice to see other districts and where D1 stacks against them.
DeleteHow about a BIG shout out to Nathan Henderson this weekend? Other than O'Hara's top 3 I think this is the performance of the week. He takes down Kyler Shea [ET 17] by 29 seconds and Zach Lefever [ET 7] by 14 seconds. WOW.
ReplyDeleteAlso shout out to Lower Daulpin's top 3 for bringing home the team title this weekend. Looked very strong.