4x8/DMR

First off I'd just like to point out the official entries for the NCAA Indoor Championships. The entries are fairly similar to what I projected, but there are a few notable differences (Lawi Lalang is trying to win all 3 distance events!). You can check out the list here: http://www.flotrack.org/coverage/250997-NCAA-D1-Indoor-Championships-2014/article/25430-ENTRIES-NCAA-Indoor-TF-Championships

But I guess at this point I owe you guys some relay talk. Both the relays didn't exactly have a surprising winner, but things were kind of odd in the way that they won. First off State College flat out dominated despite only running a 7:50 mark. They just weren't challenged thanks mostly to the fact that the O'Hara guys ran so fantastic in the individuals that there was nothing left for the relay. I'm really impressed they held on for second honestly, considering how much was invested in the individuals. I'd love to know splits if they are out there, Caldwell had a really nice anchor, Wiseman and Francis were strong, and I'm sure there were plenty of other break out marks. North Penn once again came to play, just always good at the 4x8, can't explain it.

In the DM West Chester Henderson left themselves somewhat vulnerable anchoring Stratman over the superstar Russell. In addition, Russell, tired from doing all the work in the mile, was in no mood to do all the work to keep the pace down around 3 flat on that 1200. So ultimately, Henderson looked vulnerable with "only" a 3:08 lead off leg and a guy in Stratman who was in the most pressure packed running situation of his young career. But Stratman rose beautifully to the occassion, ran very within himself and solo-ed a 4:24ish type mark (which would put him about #2 on the team yesterday) and easily wrapped up a victory. I think we could see big things out of Stratman both at nationals next week and this outdoors. I was impressed.

I still can't help but wonder if this race ends up different if a team like Lower Dauphin or Altoona was in this race with completely fresh legs if the outcome would have been different. I think Henderson was just clearly the best team out there, but 10:24 doesn't usually win the state championship by 8 seconds. The race for second was incredibly exciting (and I wish they would have showed that on the feed) with Bilotta running great and Kardish really having a very nice double. He may be a dangerous 2 mile type/miler outdoors. He is a strong runner and I was very impressed by that double (and really that HG Prep team in general). Pleasant surprise for sure. Same can be said for Cole Nissley's double for LD off the 3k. CB South quietly drops down to 10:39. 10:39 for a team that barely made it to the state championships! They are a very well coached group of guys and they have a really strong freshman on that squad.

Small note before I move to the future, Henderson probably could have grabbed a team trophy without much difficulty, they were only 3 points away from third despite not even trying to get there. O'Hara wanted the podium and they ended up 2nd in a big surprise. That was a very intriguing podium battle, much like UDs in 2009.

So now the question turns to the same question it has been for some time. O'Hara vs. Henderson! Last year those two teams matched up in XC in a historic state meet and an unbelievable year overall. The battle indoors last year for 2nd in the 4x8 came down to Henderson and O'Hara (and Pennsbury of course).The two also battled it out at Penn Relays last year, although LaSalle was the team that stole the show.

Now there is another showdown looming. I'm hoping we get to see it at Nationals first and foremost. Both teams would have the potential to be in the 10:10 range and take down the state record. Henderson ran 10:16 not too long ago and O'Hara rocked a low 10:20s mark on a flat track. O'Hara went to states and had a variety of strong individual performances. By now each of there legs has run 1:56 or faster this season with Belfatto also running 4:17 and Smart running 1:54 last weekend. Meanwhile, Tony Russell continues to dominate the mile indoors with a variety of sub 4:13 miles this year (I think he has like 5 or so which is absolutely absurd).

In my opinion (which tends to be wrong), I think the best order for O'Hara would be James, 400 leg, Smart, Belfatto and Henderson would be best off running Moy, Thompson, Stratman, Russell. That would be quite the race with Russell likely chasing Belfatto over the course of the last leg. Head to head I would say that order would yield something like

1200m, I favor Moy by about 1-2 seconds although James ran a lot of fantastic 1200s a year ago and is gutsy, Moy has the experience and the speed this season to kick James down on the leadoff
400m, I'd say it's a draw. Thompson's recent 51 split might end up giving Henderson a surprise edge if he can match that at Nats with some actual competition on his leg.
800m, I really like what Stratman did last week, but Smart is about a 4 second advantage on Stratman these days coming off a fantastic 1:54 mark at indoor states. He could maybe even split 1:53 chasing
1600m, Russell clearly has the advantage here because he has run so much faster than Belfatto and has split 4:11 twice already. Belfatto could break through for a 4:15 type mark (which is equivalent to the 4:17 he ran for a full mile), but Russell would still have him by 4-5 seconds if he is on his game.

That means, in total, Henderson has about 2-3 second advantage on paper. But on race day, none of that matters. I'm pumped for whenever this becomes reality.

Also just want to say State College can still do big things on the 4x8 relay. If they took the trip to nats they can do a Pennridge esque time at the very least. But they may be content to end the year with the state championship.