Penn Relays Relay Preview

4x800m

The qualifying round for the 4x800 is no easy task. Early in the morning on Friday, the relay hopefuls are crammed into the holding pen and then stuffed onto a crowded track with the hopes of someone being ready to run. The first two legs are hyper critical. You cannot get buried in a field this large or you have little to no hope of passing back to the front. Now, I’ve seen it done (the 2010 Henderson team overcame something like 2:05 lead off to get into the final), but if you’ve got a strong #1 or #2 to set the tone (I think Penn Wood or Pennsbury from last year) that could be a big difference maker for a borderline qualifying team.

Here’s a quick history of how PA has done qualifying-wise in recent years:

2017 – Seneca, State College, CB West

2016 – State College, CB West

2015 – Pennsbury, CB West, CB East

2014 – State College, Pennridge

2013 – Cumberland Valley, Bensalem

So 2-3 in any given year, with two being more likely. This year I’m a little nervous about our qualifying chances as I think it’s going to be a deep year and arguably our three best teams are not going to be in the qualifying position. Of course, you can’t always tell who your best teams will be. Seneca, CB East, Pennridge and Cumberland Valley from the list above all qualified after being non-factors in the 4x8 during the indoor season.

Let’s break down all the teams entered and then I’ll make picks on who I think is advancing.

Small School Heat 1

GFS – GFS qualified for indoor states in both the 4x8 and the DMR during the winter with a season best mark at 8:07 in the 4x8. They’ve got a solid squad with a potential stand out in Colin Riley to lead the way. I’m think Riley may be the lead off leg which could be a nice move that helps catapult this team into a sleeper position. That being said, GFS was just short of a pair of medals at the indoor state meet and will need a big season best to qualify for the Championship of America. The x-factor for this squad should be rising standout Alexander Blaylock. They will need him and Riley to dip under two minutes to factor into the front of this field.

Ephrata – The Purple People Eaters may be PA’s best chance to make the finals. It seems crazy considering they are not a traditional power, but Ephrata proved indoors they were game for a challenge. This squad took 3^rd at indoor states and has been rolling in every meet since. Tyler Shue, who in recent history has been the lead off leg, should get them out of traffic early and then it will be up to the rest of the relay to hold serve. Morales’s recent development (he’s at 1:57.0 in the open now) is very encouraging. That could provide a big lift as no one outside of Shue was under 2 on their state medaling squad. They’ll need all four legs to click to ensure a spot in the state finals, but I believe in these guys.

Bishop Shanahan – The wild card of the whole Relays is Shanahan. They’ve got the pieces to rocket off an unreal time. Start with the Hoey brothers who just last week clocked 1:48 and 1:54 respectively. Logan Yoquinto, if healthy, is another leg well under 2 minutes. Even past him Jon McGrory and Keaton Penney could be pieces that keep the team on sub 8 minute pace. However, Josh Hoey has the mile later in the night and he may opt to go fresh for that event which would mean he’s out on the 4x8. That move wouldn’t surprise me much. Now keep in mind Shanahan was a 10:27 DMR team without Josh (5^th at indoor states) so they can still be really competitive without him, but there’s a world of difference between a 1:51 guy and a 2 flat guy in a race like this.

Overall, if they could have gotten into the DMR, I think they probably would have preferred their chances in that event, but since they have to settle for the 4x8 I’m not positive we will see a stacked squad. Maybe they save up forces for a 4x4 with both Hoeys and Zink?

If it feels like I’m asking more questions than providing answers that’s because I just have no idea what to expect out of this squad.

Small School Heat 2

Owen J Roberts – One of the breakout teams from the 2017 XC season is now turning their attention to the 4x8. This group barely snuck into the state field with a time just a few seconds under 8:10. Like Bishop Shanahan, OJR has a decision to make with their 4x8. State champ Liam Conway could be a huge x-factor for them, having run 1:53 during the indoor season and 1:55 during outdoors. But he’s got the mile later (another event where he just won a state championship) and the senior has a chance to use his kick to spring an upset on a massive stage. To do so, he’d need every piece of energy he has.

My gut says that Conway will roll in the 4x8 and then try to double back for the mile. That could make this team a sleeper, but we will need to see what the #3 and #4 legs look like. Kyle Malmstrom could be a sub 2 piece, but beyond that they have a pack of guys from whom they will need at least one guy to step up. They have to make sure they get the stick around to Conway (assuming he anchors) in a position where he has a fighting chance or his speed will be neutralized running through a crowded pack.

Large Schools Heat 1

LaSalle – LaSalle really impressed me during their indoor campaign when they medaled at the state 4x8 without their best runner in Evan Addison. They may have to continue to excel without him as Addison is entered in the mile later in the day just like Hoey and Conway. Unsurprisingly, LaSalle is very deep and consistent across their line-up. They will have no week legs whether Addison is involved or not. They can even unleash guys like Twomey in this event, who indoors I believe they saved for the DMR (but am not positive). They’ve got so many options that I think they will be dangerous. However, I’m not sure they have the star power to pop off a low 7:50s time when their best to date is only around 8:02. If Addison runs, that statement may come back to haunt me.

CB East – I really like this team’s chances of posting a great time. Marc Motter has returned to the fray and, given his PRs, could be a 1:57ish leg on the right day (he was at 1:57 at this meet a year ago). CB East also has a star in David Endres who has clocked a 1:54 already in 2018. Throw those two legs together and the last two guys just need to hold serve. East has been on this stage before and they even pulled out a somewhat unexpected qualifying performance in 2015 behind Jake Brophy. They may be able to do it again. I think the key will be putting Endres in a spot to maximize his abilities. If he’s on the 2^nd or 3^rd leg, I think he could pop off something impressive that’s in line with his individual bests and that would be huge for East’s qualifying hopes.

CR South – I’d say CR South is the biggest wild card of this whole group. During the indoor season they took 4^th in the state with a 7:58. They put together an order that makes a lot of sense for the Penn Relays with their two fastest legs in the first two positions. I think Collin Ochs is a star waiting for a chance to breakout and could split something like 1:54ish on leg #2 to put them in contention. Ochs and Andrew Zawodniak ran in the prelims last year so they’ve got experience (Zawodniak delivered a solid lead off performance as well). That being said, I haven’t seen much from this team during the outdoor season to inspire me to pick them to make the finals. I think they will be good, but they need to be great to get to the COA.

Large Schools Heat 2

Pennsbury – On paper, Pennsbury is probably our best shot at the COA. They almost made it last year with a similar team, helped by an incredible 1-2 punch from Jed Scratchard and Aidan Sauer. Those guys split 1:56 and 1:54 last year as Pennsbury ran 7:50.23 (how the heck did that not make the finals?!). Sauer and Scratchard are back alongside Javier Linares (1:57 already in 2018 with great quarter speed) and the team looked ready to roll with a DMR victory at the CB West relays. However, Pennsbury pulled out of the relays at indoor states because of an injury to Jed Scratchard which could be a cause for concern here. They were the #1 team in the state before that injury so, if healthy (he looked it in recent meets), they will be a force. But that’s potentially a big if.

Ultimately, I think Ephrata and Pennsbury make the finals in the 4x8. Bishop Shanahan obviously could be a factor if they are at 100%, but my gut says they won’t be. I also think it’s very possible we end with no qualifiers. I’m doubting you Pennsylvania! Come through and prove me wrong!

Side note: I thought Mount Lebanon was entered in this event, but didn’t see them on this latest round of entries so I left them out of the preview. If someone could shine some light on that, I’d be curious. That’s a very balanced team that I would pick to dip under 8 minutes in this one.

DMR

A year ago, PA entered the DMR Championships with hopes of recapturing the wheel. We had awesome squads from Carlisle, GFS and CRN in the mix but ultimately, we were denied. Now a new crop of PA teams will hit the line. However, unlike our top teams from a year ago, this will be more of a long shot group. Let’s breakdown our squads and see who can make noise.

CB West – One of the biggest surprises to me was CB West opting for the DMR over the 4x8. The indoor state champs have qualified for the Championship of America in that event each of the past three seasons and this year’s team would have likely been in the mix to do it again. They are fresh off a 7:53 performance in that same event at their home relays. This makes me think West is confident in their potential in this longer event and perhaps we are going to see a breakout anchor performance from Brian Baker. He split a 4:19 at the indoor state championships in the DMR on the double from the 4x8. With fresher legs, he could maybe take things down closer to 4:15.

The key for West will be their 1200 leg. I’m not sure who it’s going to be (maybe they throw me for a loop and put in Baker) as their best 800 guys seem to be more speed specialized like Claricurzio and Fehrman. West will need to put themselves in a good spot in early in a crowded field at the Penn Relays and that means their 1200 guy needs to come to play. If they get a good leg their (something under 3:10 would be excellent), then they will factor in to the top 5-6 teams in a really deep field.

Spring Ford – This spunky squad has risen to the moment on the big stage at each of the past two state championships. The Rams came within 1.5 seconds of shocking the field in the DMR at indoor states with a 10:23.11 time. They haven’t slowed down in recent weeks as Jacob McKenna continues to show excellent strength in the longer distances like the 3200. I’ve also liked what I’ve seen from Milan Sharma. The middle legs for Spring Ford made the difference indoors and they will rely on them again during the spring. Again, the 1200 leg will be meaningful. Senior leader Zach Smith should be in charge there.

Seneca Valley – On paper, this our best team. That’s not exactly a bold statement considering these guys are the state champions in the DMR. They ran a 10:21 during indoors and I’d wager they can improve a couple seconds on the anchor alone for Penn Relays. Seth Ketler has looked excellent over the past two seasons and just clocked a 1:56.24 victory at 800. I’d guess Sam Owori will be the key to SV’s success. He ran an awesome 3:07 indoors and handed off in first place to set the stage for a victory. Historically, if you can post a 3:07 type lead off time at Penn, that’s a really strong leg that gets you at or near the front. Also watch for Alex Dixon on the 800. He clocked a 1:57 split indoors which was the fastest time of any DMR.