A Race - Team
It
doesn’t take much paying attention to realize that Jenkintown has been awesome
this year. Not only have they dominated their league and district competition,
but they’ve also won at Foundation and Paul Short. I was super excited about
them in the first post I wrote for the running hub earlier this year and they
are getting all-time great talk already in the comment section over there.
So
basically, Jenkintown is your heavy state title favorite (the heaviest of the
three classifications certainly). But slow your roll here a second. I think
that the Aubreys are going to be in for a bit more of a fight than most. For
starters, keep in mind that Winchester Thurston has quietly been rolling
through strong competition out west. They cruised through the WPIAL and went toe-to-toe
with the potential state champions in AA. They are a proven program who has won
state titles before and (considering they return their entire projected top 5
next year), they are likely going to win more in the future.
Meanwhile,
Jenkintown has some demons to exercise. They were a strong team last year who
had an outside chance of making the podium if everything clicked right and,
simply put, it didn’t work out for them (they were 5th in an
incredibly deep year for A schools). Plus, this squad has three sophomores in
the scoring five. If any of those guys has a slip, it opens the door for a deep
Winchester Thurston team to pack it up and get in the clubhouse 1st.
All
that being said, I’m still picking the Aubreys to win it. I think last year’s disappointment
is actually going to be a driving force for this team, I like the step up
performance we saw out of Travis Geer at districts (a nice insurance blanket)
and they do have 4 legit medal threats. And, oh by the way, Winchester Thurston
also has three sophomores in their projected top 5 so youth is on both sides.
I don’t
see anybody else winning the title (not that that’s ever stopped anybody), but
I do think the battle for third place is going to be incredible. Wyalusing out
of District 4 is not necessarily the deepest team, but they may end up with
three state medalists (I really like Patton’s chances for a big day). If you’ve
got that, you have a shot at the podium. Looking down my individual list, I
think D4 is the most underrated which works doubly well for them. Plus, we’ve
seen this squad show up well on this course for Foundation already.
Montrose
is really interesting to me. Two years ago, they were my darkhorse state
championship pick, but things didn’t click. Last year, I thought they had a
terrific state championship meet and, even though they didn’t get on the podium
(only 6 points away in 3rd place), their squad really impressed.
Which version of Montrose shows up this year? They were dominant again their
district meet and they’ve got a super dangerous front runner in Liam Mead, but
their pack will be the difference maker. The schools around them have a ton of
front running fire power, but can be exploited in terms of 4th
and/or 5th guys. Colin Spellman (top 50 last year) could be the name
to watch for Montrose.
Cochranton
is the other team I see who could use their depth to their advantage. Noah
Bernarding is a returning state medalist, but Jac Cokley has arguably been
their best guy in 2018. I’m hoping one of those two guys gets on the medal
stand. Stephen Clulow is a top 50 threat and Lee Ault is a name on the rise.
Cochranton was 7th last year at the state championship, return their
entire top 5 and have a more experienced, deeper team. This squad is a threat
for top 3 and maybe even more if one of the favorites falters.
And, of
course, we can’t count out the top 2 teams from a year ago. Both Penns Valley
(1st) and Elk County Catholic (2nd) lost a couple key
contributors from the senior class (PV lost two state medalists), but that doesn’t
mean they can’t reload. Penns Valley has arguably two of the best 5 guys in the
state on their team in sophomores Colton Sands and Brendan Colwell. But its
their depth that has gotten a lot better since their trip to Hershey for
foundation. They added two top 5 guys in Alex Gretok and Max Feidler to the mix
and they still have Dan Kelly and Thaddeus Smith, either of who could deliver a
performance to help sneak this team up the standings. Meanwhile the Elks still
have three guys with top 30 potential in Ben Hoffman (returning top 10
finisher), Jacob Carnovale and Isaac Wortman. Joe Wolfe looks like he may even
sneak into the top 50 so the focus will be on the #5 spot come states weekend.
Here
are my picks for the top 10:
10.
Cranberry
9.
Riverview
8. West
Middlesex
7.
Penns Valley
6. Elk
County Catholic
5.
Cochranton
4.
Montrose
3.
Wyalusing
2.
Winchester Thurston
1.
Jenkintown
A – Individuals
As all
of the preview articles around the state will say, just as Jenkintown is the
favorite in the team battle, so too is their front runner Jack Miller. Look,
it’s boring but it’s easy and sometimes that’s what you have to do. Intros are
hard.
What
hasn’t been hard is Jack Miller winning races. If you thought Tristan Forsythe
was good last year (and he was), it’s not hard to make the argument that Jack
Miller has been even better. He ran 16:18 at Foundation and was PA’s 2nd
best guy (any classification) at Paul Short. I believe the last A guy to make a
run at the top 20 at Footlocker Regionals was Rico Galassi in 2012 (Molino
would have but he went to NXN) and Miller could end up around there when all is
said and done.
I have
a harder time typing this individually, but still feel it has to be typed: you
never know what can happen in Hershey. Andrew Healey was only two seconds back
of Miller at states a year ago and he’s back with a vengeance this season.
Healey was no match for Miller at Foundation, but the Holy Cross junior has
typically saved his best running for the championship. He was actually 2nd
at his district meet in 2017 before taking 4th at states.
Call me
crazy, but I actually really like Colton Sands as the most likely candidate to
pull the upset. Yes, Sands took just 4th at the district meet so
that could be a cause for concern, but a lot of crazy things happened in the
slop of districts so I’m optimistically writing that one off. I’m pretty biased
because the last two times I saw Sands run in person he wowed me. First he
takes the top spot on a state championship team at XC states, then he produces
a crazy 32-16 double medal performance in blazing heat on the track at outdoor
states. And all that happened as just a freshman! He’s a truly special talent
and I could see a world in which Sands surprises Miller on the final
straightaway and steals a gold. I doubt it’s the world that I live in, but I
can at least see the world.
If you
are going to make an argument for Sands, you have to throw in his sophomore
teammate Brendan Colwell. The kid threw down a 24 second victory against a very
deep District 6 field this past weekend and has quietly been right besides
Sands at all the check points the past two XC seasons.
Another
really dangerous name is Freedom’s Adam Hessler. This junior has put together a
monster two week stretch at the Freedom Invitational and the WPIAL
championships. He runs the state course well (13th last year, top 50
as a freshman) and he’s beaten a lot of really good guys from both AA and A. He
should have some serious confidence heading into this meet and that’s the most
dangerous thing a Cross Country runner can have in his tool belt.
I’ll
post up a full top 50 predictions (not because I think it’s good, but because I
feel obligated to given my past history), but let me throw out some sleeper
names with my remaining space. I really like Ian Zimmerman of Northern Bedford
as a sleeper candidate for the top 10, maybe even the top 5 if he has the right
kind of day. He was talented as a freshman but he’s taken it up another level
here as a sophomore. Zimmerman absolutely smashed the district course out in D5
and he will be hungry to get on casual fans radars this weekend.
I think
Patrick Malone could have a big weekend and sneak onto the medal stand for
Winchester Thurston. I was impressed with his state race last year and, considering
his aggressive style, he could hang on to a fast early pace and get on the
medal stand. WT will need him to have a big day if they are going to pull off
the upset. Wayne Reilly and Mitchell Brett are both district champions so I’m
not sure they are sleepers, but they are coming from less glamorous districts
so I figured I’d give them shout outs. Both looked great at their championships
and one of them will likely carry it throw and far supersede my prediction at
states. Reilly was top 50 two years ago as a sophomore (the last time he won
districts).
Will
any freshman get on the medal stand this year? There are usually at least a
couple hunting for a spot (although they aren’t typically 10th like
Sands was) and this year should be no different with Matt Woolcock of
Cranberry, Hunter Foust of Hughesville and CJ Singleton of St. Joseph’s among
the contenders.
|
Name
|
Grade
|
School
|
District
|
|||
|
1
|
1
|
Jack
|
Miller
|
Sr
|
Jenkintown
|
1
|
|
2
|
Andrew
|
Healey
|
Jr
|
Holy
Cross
|
2
|
|
|
3
|
2
|
Colton
|
Sands
|
So
|
Penns
Valley
|
6
|
|
4
|
Adam
|
Hessler
|
Jr
|
Freedom
|
7
|
|
|
5
|
3
|
Liam
|
Mead
|
Sr
|
Montrose
|
2
|
|
6
|
4
|
Brendan
|
Colwell
|
So
|
Penns
Valley
|
6
|
|
7
|
5
|
Ben
|
Hoffman
|
Jr
|
Elk
County Catholic
|
9
|
|
8
|
6
|
Scott
|
Routledge
|
Jr
|
Winchester
Thurston
|
7
|
|
9
|
Darion
|
Gregory
|
Sr
|
Smethport
|
9
|
|
|
10
|
Zach
|
Gould
|
Sr
|
Trinity
Christian
|
7
|
|
|
11
|
Carter
|
Kauffman
|
Jr
|
St
Joesph's
|
6
|
|
|
12
|
7
|
Hunter
|
Armstrong
|
Jr
|
Marion
Center
|
6
|
|
13
|
Christian
|
Tanner
|
Sr
|
Smethport
|
9
|
|
|
14
|
8
|
Ian
|
Zimmerman
|
So
|
Northern
Bedford
|
5
|
|
15
|
Peyton
|
Jones
|
Sr
|
Elk
Lake
|
2
|
|
|
16
|
9
|
Alex
|
Patton
|
Jr
|
Wyalusing
|
4
|
|
17
|
10
|
Mason
|
Ochs
|
So
|
Riverview
|
7
|
|
18
|
11
|
Luke
|
Miller
|
So
|
Jenkintown
|
1
|
|
19
|
12
|
Luke
|
Mantzell
|
Jr
|
West
Middlesex
|
10
|
|
20
|
Ethan
|
Knoebel
|
Sr
|
Southern
Columbia
|
4
|
|
|
21
|
13
|
Carter
|
Geer
|
So
|
Jenkintown
|
1
|
|
22
|
Nathaniel
|
Lerch
|
Jr
|
Clarion
|
9
|
|
|
23
|
14
|
Pat
|
Wagner
|
Sr
|
Jenkintown
|
1
|
|
24
|
15
|
Kemuel
|
Laudermilch
|
Jr
|
Wyalusing
|
4
|
|
25
|
16
|
Sean
|
Heintzleman
|
Jr
|
Winchester
Thurston
|
7
|
|
26
|
17
|
Jacob
|
Carnovale
|
Sr
|
Elk
County Catholic
|
9
|
|
27
|
18
|
Matt
|
Woolcock
|
Fr
|
Cranberry
|
9
|
|
28
|
19
|
Jac
|
Cokley
|
Sr
|
Cochranton
|
10
|
|
29
|
20
|
Kevin
|
Heeman
|
Sr
|
Wyalusing
|
4
|
|
30
|
21
|
Patrick
|
Malone
|
So
|
Winchester
Thurston
|
7
|
|
31
|
Troy
|
Hart
|
Jr
|
Reynolds
|
10
|
|
|
32
|
22
|
Isaac
|
Wortman
|
Jr
|
Elk
County Catholic
|
9
|
|
33
|
CJ
|
Singleton
|
Fr
|
St.
Joseph
|
7
|
|
|
34
|
23
|
Noah
|
Bernarding
|
Jr
|
Cochranton
|
10
|
|
35
|
Hunter
|
Foust
|
Fr
|
Hughesville
|
4
|
|
|
36
|
Mitchell
|
Brett
|
So
|
Kutztown
|
3
|
|
|
37
|
24
|
Daniel
|
Fisher
|
Jr
|
Cranberry
|
9
|
|
38
|
Ryan
|
Bahr
|
Jr
|
Hughesville
|
4
|
|
|
39
|
Wayne
|
Reilly
|
Sr
|
Tri-Valley
|
11
|
|
|
40
|
25
|
Ben
|
Bermann
|
So
|
Winchester
Thurston
|
7
|
|
41
|
26
|
Gideon
|
Deasy
|
So
|
Riverview
|
7
|
|
42
|
Lukas
|
Dunaway
|
Sr
|
Serra
Catholic
|
7
|
|
|
43
|
27
|
Max
|
Brewer
|
Sr
|
Montrose
|
2
|
|
44
|
Ethan
|
Brentham
|
Sr
|
Brookville
|
9
|
|
|
45
|
Ian
|
Jackson
|
Sr
|
Neshannock
|
7
|
|
|
46
|
Landon
|
Myer
|
Fr
|
Union
City
|
10
|
|
|
47
|
Desmond
|
Corrado
|
So
|
Carlynton
|
7
|
|
|
48
|
Gabe
|
Deyoung
|
Sr
|
Saegertown
|
10
|
|
|
49
|
Port
|
Halabar
|
So
|
South
Williamsport
|
4
|
|
|
50
|
28
|
Colin
|
Spellman
|
Sr
|
Montrose
|
2
|
The Aubrey’s?
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