By Jarrett
Felix
When
discussing pretty much anything, it feels like the conversation always comes
back to AAA. I’m as guilty of it as anybody. I can list off all the top five
teams from AAA states for the past decade, but I have to go back and look up AA
title winners all the time. Let’s be fair, the AAA schools are bigger, have
more kids to pull from and, in all likelihood, are going to be better than the
top AA and A schools. If you looked at merged scoring for the state
championship (a tool that I use with a grain of salt for a variety of reasons I’m
not particularly invested in outlining right now), here is how the top AA and A
teams have scored:
2012 –
9th/15th
2013 –
10th/8th
2014 –
11th/16th
2015 –
15th/19th
So you
could easily look at these numbers and say the gap is real and, potentially,
growing. But I’m not sure I see it quite that way. In 2014, York Suburban put
on a show at the Carlisle Inivtaitonal and bested the rest of the PA talent
contingent (including DT West, Henderson, LaSalle, Carlisle and Cumberland
Valley) to finish as the top PA school in the field, regardless of division.
And now, after a surprising victory in 2015 over, poetically enough, York
Suburban, the 2016 Dallas squad is preparing to do battle with the AAA
onslaught. And I kinda like their chances.
Let’s
back up a quick sec. A year ago, Dallas won the state championship with their
first runner taking the 25th and final medal spot at states. That
was sophomore Jack Zardecki who was also the team’s #1 runner in 2015 as just a
freshman. Behind him, sophomore Adam Borton finished 28th, junior Jason
Culp took 36th and a pair of freshmen, Stephen Postupak and Mitchell
Rome, rounded out the scoring with 64th and 73rd place
finishes (in invitational PR times) to clinch an 8-point victory.
In case
you didn’t notice, they return all five of those guys, four of which are making
big age jumps from either sophomore to junior or freshman to sophomore. They
also were bringing back rising junior Josh Wyandt who, although he faded a bit
down the stretch of the season, was a more than capable member of the top 5 for
much of the year. He opened the 2016 season as the #2 runner on Dallas’s Cliff
Robbins squad.
The
young Dallas squad has actually been turning heads for a while. In 2014, they
surprised defending state champs Tunkhannock and up and coming squad Berwick to
steal the #2 spot to states in District 2 with four freshmen in their top 7.
That same squad finished 8th at states with
freshman-sophomore-freshman as their top 3. So these young kids have a knack
for punching above their age. But, with a trip to PTXC coming up, can they
punch above their size?
The AA
school will take on many of the top ranked AAA squads, including perhaps the
state’s best team in Carlisle. A year ago, Dallas finished 3rd
overall at the PTXC Invite and was the #2 PA team behind only Hershey (who
bested them by 10 points). Zardecki will lead the way after finishing 14th
at this meet a year ago and winning his opening invite. Then it will be about
the pack behind. A year ago, Jason Culp was the #2 runner in 27th
and Adam Borton finished in 36th with Josh Wyandt and Stephen
Postupak rounding out the top five.
All of
those guys are back again (although Postupak didn’t race last weekend) with
an added bonus from Mitchell Rome as they try to better their 3rd place
finish. Ironically, this small school will need to lean on their depth if they
are going to best a front loaded squad like Carlisle or hang with a pack driven
team like Council Rock North.
Also,
keep an eye on the #6 and #7 spots for Dallas. They had a minute gap between #5
and #6 last weekend and will hope to decrease that gap this weekend to give
themselves some insurance in the big meets. Experienced varsity runner Josh
Jarden may have the #6 role. And watch out because Dallas is still getting
younger. Their #8 and #9 guys were Sam Nocito and Brendan Fleschut who were
both listed as freshmen in the team’s first contest.
I’m
very excited to watch Dallas take on Goliath this weekend and I’m hoping they
hold their own. Through one meet, they have a faster average and tighter top
five pack than a year ago. They have a more experienced, seasoned team with the extra
confidence that comes with a state championship in the trophy case. But really,
none of that has mattered with this squad. They’ve been successful without any
of that. So maybe they don’t need it.
i'm really interested to see how Isaac cole stacks up with Jack Zardecki and Adam Borton; Jack Wisner with Jason Culp; Max Fiorentino with Stephen Postupak and Mitchell Rome.
ReplyDeleteIsaac Cole takes down Feffer last week, and looked great on a shorter course last weekend. I would give him the edge for these two rising sophomores, but I have a strong feeling they will make up a bit of that gap in October.
~70% advantage Cole
Jack Wisner also looked very strong this past weekend. He might even beat one of Dallas's top duo. However, I am excited to see how this season leader, Jason Culp, opens up and gives strength to this young team.
~7/10 advantage Wisner
I really think these two Dallas sophomores, Stephen Postupak and Mitchell Rome, will be making big jumps early on this season as we saw from Dallas' sophomores at this meet last season. I think they beat Max Fiorentino.
~7/10 Advantage Postupak and Rome
In this the Affolder brothers will keep this team far and above the field. I see they taking the win on this meet by at least 30 points. With Cole finishing in the top 7 or 8 (not sure the teams going so difficult to say).
As for CRN, i truly don't know what to expect. Knowing this team they are working pretty heavy practices this early in september. i think we'll see two to three runners pretty on, but i doubt they have had much of a down week. based on my previous training logs this should be an up week, so i would say they'll be at between 70 and 80%. i would be surprised to see them beat dallas in this race. i would put them back by 10 to 15 points.
These numbers are more helpful:
ReplyDeletePTXC: CRN Team Average - 17:22.70 ;; Dallas Team Average - 17:15.68 (Dallas went 1-2 on North, had a better 3 man, but North one the 4-5-6 battle) (Dallas 3rd, North 5th)
State Meet: CRN Team Average - 16:55 ;; Dallas Team Average - 17:15 (CRN had 3 runners in front of Dallas's #1 and CRN had 4 runners in front of Dallas' #2, and they won the 5th man battle)
Other Races:
ReplyDeleteWe get to see NA toe the line this weekend, which is really exciting to see. I'm not sure how accurately I can predict this team right now, but I am thinking a 10-15 second pack through 5 at least. Handing this team a strong victory. Also 30% chance someone breaks out and is a top 5 finisher.
In other new's, district 8 is getting hot. I do really like Taylor Allderdice's squad, and it's exciting to see them really putting a solid group together. They've got a talented front runner in Amadou Diallo.
One big question on the table for me is: just how good can Casey Conboy and Eric Kennedy be? I do not think we'll see the decline of district 7 running just because district 3 is stepping up. There will be challengers from out West.
How will Winchester Thurston move forward? Hopefully we see everyone fresh and ready to roll. If this team can stay healthy they'll be very dangerous in 'A' if not this meet. (Maybe they take down Mt. Lebo?)
Zach Skolnekovich vs. Griffin Mackey should be HYPED UP. Skolnekovich took this last season and i have no doubt Mackey will be pushing him once again and looking for revenge. Might be race/runner of the week from these two!
At Abington Endres will test his fitness against Liam Galligan, who should pull away in the last 800m or so.
Also watching out for Parkland and Bishop Shanahan. Don't think we'll see anything too flashy from the Hoey brothers at this meet, which has fairly week competition the past few years. I do think comparing Parklands similarities to last year will be helpful in ranking them moving forward.
Why don't you do weekend previews anymore? And no offense your last weekend recap felt like you rushed through the stuff. I have to go to *penntrack* to find the meets for the weekend. Penntrack! Forrest is doing a good job picking up the slack, but cmon.
ReplyDeletepretty happy about the work dan beck is doing over at penntrack right now! i think he's been really stepping up the site's game. We'll need to see more analysis of why these runners are important. Etrain is great because he knows the history and has developed different theories for studying these runners.
DeletePenn Tracks' format stinks. It takes like 7 precise clicks to get to the year of meet history you want to look at. Make one mistake and you're either looking at a worthless meet comparison or viewing another Coast Guard ad until you get to start over.
DeleteI'm not really into doing weekend previews personally besides the big meets. I feel like half the time you don't even know who is participating for these random invites and the real stories come from the results after the fact. I kinda just write based on what I have to say and what I like to talk about.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
DeleteBut when will the conductor speak on week 2?
DeleteAvon Grove was on no one's top list and they won big at Bulldog.
ReplyDeleteWho'd they beat... Exactly...
DeleteShanahan by 30 points and a lot of people were high on shanahan. Shanahan ran their whole team including two Hoeys.
DeleteJonah Hoey was in his first hs race, it wasn't a large race so Josh's 1st place doesn't have a major impact like it would in a bigger meet, and Ettien is still clearly injured. I personally still think Shanahan is overrated, so either way, I dont think they beat anyone special. They've got decent depth at AG, but no low stick. 17:30 as a #1 on a fast course isn't good enough to get you anywhere. I like the team overall and their pack, but until I see something more, they aren't even on my radar.
DeleteThey should be on your radar. AG's got something special this year.
DeleteAffolder looked really easy as he cruised to a 15:58 victory with brother Sam just losing the battle for 2nd place.
ReplyDeleteReally strong effort from the PA guys after that as well with McMenamin taking 6th overall to beat out Slavin. I think it is big to see Cupp and Tomasko racing next to each other as we rarely see them on their game in the same day -- the same could be said about the CV duo Soliman and Higgins (13-14 respectively).
Team Wise:
Carlisle looked really strong today with Isaac Cole really showing just how good he is running right behind Keller for 11th place (almost putting 3 Carlisle men in front of CRN's 1!). The two have similar track credentials so it is not too surprising to see them battling early this year. Wisner took 27th and finished ahead of CRN's 4-5 runners. But the big story of the day for this team is Tyler Hallman stepping up big to take 45th in this race (17:44) as Max Fiorentino had a tough day back in 67th. Really big time for this squad to have two runners to rely on fighting for that 5th man position.
North's average time is 9 seconds faster than last season, which is nice to see. I think Keller's performance is about where we will see Haas and Campbell over the coming weeks. I thought we would see solid performances from 3 North runners today and I would give them to Keller, (half and half to Haas and Earley) and Kevin Ehrgott who finished in 58th place, breaking 18 min. Overall, I am pleased with the performance we saw from CRN today. Consider this: Haas and Campbell finish right before Cole and Fiorentino (instead of Hallman) is Carlisle's 5th man -- North beats Carlisle today.
BUT the real team of the day is Cumberland Valley! Train was talking about this squad coming out big of District 3 and I think we'll see a big step-up from the whole district this season. Since their sophomore year we have known Soliman and Higgins can run side-by-side, but for the most part it seems that just one has a really good day. They begin the season incredibly well, however, and I hope to see this continue moving forward. Andrew Brown makes a big step-up to begin his junior [his 17:03 at states as a sophomore now mocks me as missing him as a potential big time runner this season] season by handily beating Ryan Campbell by 5 seconds! This is a notable top 3 now. (CRN has 50 pt through 3, while CV has 48 pt through 3). Ronald Gleeson (sr) injects some big hopes for this squad as a solid #4 man, and Caleb Schultz is a very capable 5 man, who will be looking to run with Gleeson in the future. I like this front 3 pack and now we see a solidified 4-5 from this team. I would move them into the top 10 team rankings.
Dallas' Adam Borton had a really tough day (unsure if the heat got him or coming off injury?). But you place him about 20th where he most likely belongs and this team has 152 points and looks pretty solid. Thought we would see more from Jason Culp as well. Overall this squad was 9 seconds worse from last year, which is a bit worrisome, but I am going to keep some faith with this squad for now. Look for a bounce back race in about two weeks from now.
Also shout out to Mechanicsberg putting together a race for 6th place!
Big time race out of the Blue division goes to freshman Ben Kuhn who placed 6th over Bryce Ohl of YS. -- (And to Kuhn's teammate Joe Cullen for handily taking the win in 16:41)
Bulldog XC:
ReplyDeleteWe get to see Josh Hoey open up with a victory, as i will guess he will do until facing Affolder. His brother did not look as dominant as many might have expected with a 13th place finish.
Top piece from this meet would have to be Avon Grove who had a pretty looking 24 second spread and a 14th placing 6th man freshman Luke Talham (and props to Matt Varghese the top freshman finisher). I will be keeping an eye to see how this group progresses.
Abington Invitational
We finally got to see Endres stack up again some strong PA competition in Galligan and Abrahams, and he did not rise to the occasion. Gilligan, as expected, took the win by 14 seconds over Abrahams. The breakout star of this meet is Avery Lederer of Penncrest who finished just 4 seconds back of Abrahams for 3rd (and 27 over Endres). Penncrest has had some really great talent in the past (esp the Kazanjian brothers <3), and it is nice to see more talent cropping up over there. They have some great coaching as well so look for Lederer to continue his rise.
CBE gets another victory with a 53 to 84 point advantage over Haverford Township. Another strong performance from Owen Zila really highlights this squad. The 1:08 spread, however, is a bit of an issue for this team, because as we saw Endres is not quite the front runner. This being said we saw Schultz take a week off, so I hope everything is alright on his end.
Cherokee Challenge
I do like the early season layout of running a difficult two mile course on the grass. PA came to play in the freshman race with 3 finishers under 11 minutes and the top two runners: Carlos Shultz of Conestoga in 10:34.68 and Cole Walker of Unionville in 10:48.11. Both teams have histories of developing solid front runners and it is exciting to know this pattern will continue in the future!
The sophomore race saw Joseph Chamoun (DTW) 10:38 in 10th and James Conway (Unionville) 10:42 in 11th. Payton Sewall got off to a tougher start than I anticipated with an 11:02.
In the Junior Race DTW got an injection of fire from Evan Kaiser (10:27) and Tyler, Rollins (10:28) in 9th and 10th respectively.
Shaun Bullock lead this squad with a 10:14 followed by Patrick Blair (10:26), and Jake O'Neill (10:33). Alansky and Barton had a tough days in 10:37 and 10:56 respectively. Not taking too much from this meet as they are bound to be on a tough training block. Overall, it is important to note that DTW still won this meet (although i'm a bit lost on how the scoring works).
Red, White, and Blue
Big Thanks to Cordon Louco for taking a picture of the final team scoring. NA won the meet with 89 points and a 17:05 average to Mount Lebanon's 142 (17:15 average). The squad finished 13-17-18-20-21-24, which is unsurprising for this big pack squad.
It seems as though Quaker Valley's Zach Skolnekovich took the win in 16:05 according to Phil Grove (twitter) and the picture contends Franklin Regional runner in 2nd, South Fayette in 3rd, Baldwin for 4th (Conboy), Taylor Allderdice (Amillo) in 5th. (I'll most more on this later) when I can see official results.
Big mention of the meet goes to Mount Lebanon's JV team who beat North Allegheny's JV. This is a race, race occasion.
Avon Grove won the Bulldog and wrecked Shanahan convincingly, they had a tight pack.
ReplyDeleteDidn't know Avon Grove had anything but that was a big win that should get them some looks. They won the JV too so they're pretty deep.
DeleteNA with a 7 second 1-5 split to easily win the AAA Red White and Blue Invitational
ReplyDeleteAvon Grove's pack was a little more impressive because they ran the more challenging course.
DeletePlease, for the life of me, do not compare Avon Grove to NA. Please. Also, to humor you, Bulldog is as easy as they come. I'm praying that this a troll.
DeleteAvon Grove for the state title
DeleteSmall random tidbits:
ReplyDelete-Obviously Shanahan underwhelmed at Bulldog, but its fair to say that they really couldn't/didn't reveal their full arsenal.
-NA is gonna take an approach that contrasts what were used to seeing, but knowing them they'll be able to pull it off.
-Galligan better get major love for his win. Took the field out in 4:54, and continued to pour it on. Had the fastest time in the state from any meet, including Affolder's win at PTXC.
-Lederer from Penncrest looked great. He has no cast behind him right now, but as a junior, his teammates (all freshman ) went 1,3,4,5 in the novice race, which, mid you, was faster than the JV race. Give those kids a year to develop with Lederer next year, that could be exciting.
-I thought train was crazy for having Skolnekovich at ET-#5, but I'll say he backed it up yesterday.
-Not even looking at times, from yesterday, although I will say the heat was drastically more impactful in the east than the west.
Shanahan didn't reveal their full arsenal? Is there another Hoey who didn't run or something? or are they trying to lull the entire state into underestimating them by running slowly? Either way, Avon Grove took the Bulldog title.
DeleteLet's be honest, Ettien is clearly not healthy, and Jonah had his first HS race ever. Also, McGrory, their #5 (17:24, 4:40) was absent from the race as well. Even with all those pieces, I don't think they will make states, so its a moot point. I know I'm just feeding the trolls at this point, but I'm just being. This honestly just a great move psychologically by the Avon Grove guys lol. They won a sub-par meet and are making outrageous statements just to draw attention to themselves, which they've clearly done here. Man, us xc nerds sure are weird.
Delete^ or, maybe Avon Grove is just pretty decent this year and nobody anticipated them crushing Shanahan at that meet so people are talking about it.
DeleteHow come Jonah gets the "first ever race" excuse all over the place but AGs frosh Luke Talham finishes a quarter of a second behind him and nobody even knows who he is?
ReplyDeleteFair point, but I'm sure Talham didn't run a 4:45/2:10 double in ms, and doesn't have 2 brothers who run 4:11 or faster...
DeleteNo he doesn't and he didn't. But he did double 4:54/2:14 in middle school
DeleteIf you're looking at freshmen to watch out for, Ben Kuhn from Wyomissing is going to be a beast. Ran a 17:36 in very hot conditions at PTXC.
DeleteChesmont top 5:
ReplyDelete1) Dwest
2) Avon Grove
3) WCH
4) Unionville
5) WC East
1) Dwest
Delete2) WCH
3) Unionville
4) AG
5) WCE ( I feel confident about the top 4, literally any team could go here at this point)
Shanahan is without a doubt better than WCE. WCE lost to AG 18-48 in a dual meet last Wednesday.
Delete1) DTW
Delete2) AG
3) WCH
4) U-Ville
5) Shanahan
Avon Grove looked real good but that pack is about 30 seconds off of where they need this time of year to be able to make some noise when we get to districts. WCH is WCH so they will be around when it matters like they always are. Shanahan is no DTW and aren't going to be. DTW is DTW and far and away the top Chesmont squad.
DeleteIt's too early to make this list, DTW and WCH both haven't run competitive 5k's this year, along with teams such as Uville and Rustin as well...
DeletePredictions as to how Etrain's top 50 will/should change:
ReplyDelete-Lederer and Brown (GS, Not CV) got your shoutout last week, but should earn their own spots on the list after top 3 finishes in their respective invitationals
-Don't think Morgan did enough to keep his spot
-Beveridge and Endres are appropriately placed
-O'Neill and Barton are both on here, but their teammate running as their #1 (Bullock) isn't? That should change…
-I may move Keller up a bit after top 10 finish at PTXC
-Kole could move up
-I think Zardecki is a bit too high up after this week
-Forsythe's performance in the A/AA race should NOT be overlooked
-Galligan honestly made an argument for top 6
-Wouldn't be against Conway pushing for a top 10 spot
Spring-ford beat hempfield at xxxxc relays
ReplyDeleteSpring Ford is a lock to be a state qualifying team IMO
ReplyDeleteThey have a nice squad. So does CBE.
DeleteD1:
ReplyDelete1st Council Rock North- They didn't wow at PTXC, but Haas is developing as a real ace for the team, and when you have a program like that with that much depth, no team has stepped up enough to take this #1 spot.
2. Downingtown West- Don't look now, but this squad is subtly saying, "Hoey(s) who?". They really lack the power up front that they had last year, but Barton, O'Neill, Bullock is a monstrous 1-2-3 (not monstrous like last year, but still damn good). They've done a great job of developing talent behind those top 3, like Blair, Codd, and Kaiser.
3. Spring ford- Although we've yet to see these guys run a 5k, you can't help but think they're already in great fitness. They easily pulled away at the Quad meet at Belmont, and they return a squad that just missed out with only one key guy off the roster. Like DTW, they've got a tight spread, but if they can find a top 25 finish at districts in someone like Smith, then they'll be in business.
4. Central Bucks East- I might be the only one who is not totally on the CBE bandwagon yet. To me, experience is oh so vital when trying to match up with the big boys at districts. They have two lone seniors on the squad, one of which has no big experience (Zila), paired up with a junior and 4 sophomores. This team will be deadly soon, and I think they'll sneak in this year, but I won't be surprised if they get caught by other squads come the end of October.
5. William Tennent- They lost to a talented Parkland squad this week at Centaur, but they've got the pieces to sneak into the last spot this year after putting their name on the map last year. Putting 5 under 18, they have a killer top 4 in Hutton, Craig, Rahill, and Kraus, who had an off day at Centaur but is usually up with those top 3. If Hutton can continue to develop into a frontrunner while Ringers solidifies himself as a 5th man, this team can go into the district meet carrying a lot of confidence.
^^^^ I meant Keller for CRN, not Haas...
Delete6. West Chester Henderson- I don't care if Kevin Kelly was handed 7 elementary school kids who run 10 minute miles, he'd find a way to take them to states. Although I have them slotted outside of a state qualifying spot right now, its mostly because we haven't seen them race a competitive 5k. We all no Smucker is a top 5, maybe top 10 finish at districts. From their dual meet, he seemed to be pacing sophomore Calvin Pash to the win. If Kelly has enough confidence to in a sophomore to have him run up to the front and be paced with Smucker, he'll be good. Behind that, you've got Berkman and Dunleavy, both sub 17 guys. Develop a 5th man, and you'll see WCH at states.
ReplyDelete7. North Penn- This squad really underwhelmed at PTXC, but theres too much talent here for me to ignore them. O'Toole is looking to become this team's threat up front, while they've got guys like Colin Grace (know the last name), young sophomore Cataldi, a 1:56 sophomore (now junior) in Santiago, and a 16:40 man in Thomas. I'll cut them some slack for a rough day in the heat, but there's so much raw talent in this team that I can't help but leave them this high, especially given their history of success.
8. Boyertown- The team that finished right ahead of NP at PTXC, I actually really liked what I saw from these guys. Derafelo and Endy were a solid 1-2 punch that finished in the top 35. They're 2-3 gap is a little worrisome, but from there, their 3-5 have a great pack with a 5.5 second spread. If that gap between their top 2 and fellow scorers can shrink from 40 to about 25 seconds come late season, this team becomes dangerous.
9. Haverford Township- This team came out of nowhere at Abington, finishing as runner-ups to CBE at Abington. They've got one of the top guys in the state in Abrahams, and while the gap behind him is rather large, seeing that their 2-5 was 9 seconds, thats a fantastic setup of a squad logistically, to have an ace, then a full pack behind him for your scoring. GIven the heat, having the entire pack right under 18 is a really solid look. If that pack can drop a minute or so come districts, with Abrahams leading the way, I'm not about to count them out for a contender. Their only scary flaw is the lack of depth after the top 5.
10. Avon Grove- Yes, the last spot in the top 10 goes to the oh so confident Avon Grove squad. Partially because we haven't seen some of the teams in the district compete, but hey, they really aren't that bad. They'll certainly be one of the top teams in the district, but unlike these other programs, where I see potential for them to sneak in to the top 5 with the right set-up, I don't see it with this squad. They've got a very tight and diverse pack of runners, but having no top guy up front to give them a low-stick in scoring. Had you put this pack behind a runner like Ilgenfritz last year, I'd say they're one of the scariest teams in the district. But without having a top guy (Dusseau was the number 1 over 17:30), this team will get hammered in big meets like distrcts. At this point in the season though, their pack is solid enough to put them into the top 10.
***This excludes top teams who have yet to race, such as CBW, Lower Merion, and Pennsbury***
AG is still a huge question mark to me. Bulldog was an extremely small race so until they run in a large competitive field we won't really know what they can do. I honestly think a districts finish anywhere from 4th to 13th is possible depending on how they progress.
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