The Conductor Speaks: Week Five (Part 1?)

by Jarrett Felix

I'm going to try and fit this into just one post, but as you guys know I like to hear myself talk. Or read myself talk, maybe? Hear myself type? Ramble for no reason in an introductory paragraph that people probably aren't even reading because they've skipped down to the part that says "Paul Short"? Or (e) all of the above?

Anyway, before I get started, I have to give a huge shout out to Garrett Zatlin for his awesome live tweeting of the Salesianum meet this past weekend in Delaware. It was the best live tweeting for an XC meet I've ever seen and the fact that he barely made any spelling errors while doing it was amazing. I've already made more grammatical mistakes in this article and I have spell check and (allegedly) standards of professionalism. So thank you Garrett, keep up the good work and I'm looking forward to your updated plan proposal on the etrain snap chat account.

Paul Short
District 3 Teams
Well folks, it looks like it's going to be a District 3 kind of year. As has already been discussed in the comments (you guys have generated some fantastic discussion over the last few weeks, really helps me watch more football ... I mean carefully plan out my recaps), the District 3 play off race is wild. I think the general consensus is that Carlisle is at the top, but even they aren't a lock to make states with all these schools throwing down fast times each weekend. With (most of) Carlisle and Lower Dauphin taking the weekend off, we got to get a closer look at some of the less discussed District 3 powerhouses at Paul Short and boy did they deliver.

Hempfield was the top PA team for the second year in a row at Paul Short, finishing 2nd overall just 7 points back from Centerville. The squad put their second runner under 16 this year as Christian Groff continues to roll this year with a 15:54 for 16th overall. Their other sub 16 man, Nick Norton, was actually their #3 in a very strong 16:06 with Coby Mattes (who crushed this course in '15 as well) was the team's #2 in 16:04. Mattes was the team's #4 at Carlisle so he stepped up big time in this race. There was a 40 point swing from #4 Max Lessans to #5 Dylan Roeder which played a small role in swinging the title, but Roeder ran 17:33 last weekend a cut off roughly 40 seconds. As far as I'm concerned, this was a very strong showing from Hempfield. Major props to this program who might have the potential to pull out a 3-peat at districts. Don't rule it out.

That being said, the #2 PA team from the weekend, Mechanicsburg, is one of my personal favorites. If they can survive District 3, they have all the pieces of a top 5 team in the state. Morgan Cupp is running phenomenally, but Alex Tomasko has taken a huge step forward that can't be overlooked. Tomasko has had some inconsistency problems in the past, but this season he's been money every single race. The duo ran 15:36 and 15:37 today. Andrew Sulon also had his best race of the season, finishing 24th in the team standings and running 16:06. Now there is a fair bit of pressure on the team's #4 and #5 guys (both sophomores), but both guys have flashed real potential. Knepper came through with a fantastic race this weekend while Vigliano crushed it at Carlisle. They were 21 points back of Hempfield this weekend and I see some ways they could make up the deficit looking ahead.

Cumberland Valley was the #4 PA team and the #3 from District 3. They had a strong showing, putting 6 runners under 17 minutes and, as I've discussed in the past, this team always seems to find a way to make states. Considering the talent on their roster, they can't be counted out. And oh yeah, Twin Valley quietly won the White Race with an impressive pack. They qualified for states in 2013 and 2014 and then, after graduating basically all of their core, ran a crazy clutch race at districts and nearly qualified for states yet again. I have a ton of respect for this program and won't count them out going forward. Their #1 runner, Matt Coakley, lost a heart breaker for the individual title by just a second against Matt Brown of Roman Catholic (a very quick miler). Watch for him to return with a vengeance next race.

District One Teams
But guys, get this, there's also a lot of really good teams in District One! I know, that practically never happens! Here's the thing, I have no clue who the five teams making it out of the district are right now. I'd actually like to hear some of your picks because I'm curious what the general consensus is on this one. CRN and Henderson have made it every year since 2007, but Henderson seems at least a little vulnerable. DT West looks incredibly deep and will most likely qualify as well (although nothing's guaranteed).

Then you have the top few teams from Paul Short. Leading that pack was Spring Ford, a popular pre-season pick, as they finished 4th overall (#3 PA) at Paul Short. They've got a nice deep core that put their top 7 under 17 minutes and had Zach Smith as their #8 (their top returner from last year). And I've got to give a big shout out to Shane Ainscoe. Ainscoe has been the team's #1 in each of the team's first two races and stopped the clock at 15:58 this weekend at Paul Short! Basically every other member of the top 5 has gotten love on this side besides Ainscoe, but he's been dropping excellent marks and developing into a front running presence they will certainly need looking ahead.

But lurking behind Spring Ford are two exciting wild card schools. The first is Lower Merion, who finished just 14 points behind the Power Rangers this weekend. LM was 9th at Foundation, but Theodore Neckowicz didn't finish the race. At Paul Short, he finished to say the least. Teddy (not sure if he goes by Teddy, but I was feeling) dropped a 16:22 at this meet for a top 40 finish and #2 spot on the roster. That was a huge swing in total points and gave the Furcht's (I really need to learn team's actual nick names) a very impressive top 4 (all in the top 60). They've got a little bit of work to do at #5, but they have lots of dudes ready to push each other in that slot. I'm not sure where frosh Joey Litvin was (#4 at Foundation) but even without him, they had the best #8 in the varsity race and a 5-6-7 that was all within a couple seconds of one another roughly a minute faster than on the Hershey hills. And oh yea, their front runner, Matt D'Aquila, is really good. Could be a state medal contender this year.

But perhaps even scarier than Lower Merion in the sleeper discussion is the young guns over at Conestoga. They've definitely put their names in the ring for the Uncle Drew award (see a couple team rankings ago). Although they have mostly seniors in the varsity, they're young guys are really, really good. Freshman Carlos Schultz joined a very exclusive club when he clocked a 15:56 at Lehigh just after his win at Six Flags. That's a monster time that puts him in a group that includes Jake Brophy and Ned Willig (and that honestly might be it). And he did it before the district championships (where the other two did it). Considering that's a two-time XC state champion and a 4:11/1:51 dude, I'd say that's pretty nice company. Behind Schultz, sophomore Henry Borska (the team's #4) was actually the top PA sophomore in the entire race giving Stoga the top guy in both classes.

Conestoga was district champs in 2014 (not that long ago) but has nobody left on their roster from that championship squad. Of course that hasn't stopped them from rebuilding on the fly and posting 4 guys in the top 43 overall (an even better top 4 than Lower Merion). Stoga had a larger gap from 4 to 5 than Spring Ford and Lower Merion which led to a small deficit (46 behind Spring Ford), but they've come from off the radar to sleeper contender quite quickly.

William Tennent (8th overall with 322 points) and Pennsbury (10th overall with 342) were also in the mix, even if a tier below the team's above (probably could have picked a better way to phrase that but you get it). Pennsbury has turned into one of those teams that always contends for the top 10 while William Tennent has quietly built a nice, consistent program as well. Evan Hutton has been an absolute beast and dipped into the 15:40s this weekend, but Sean Rahill had the race of the day for WT as he stunned me with his sub 16 performance! Sean's a super talented to guy who showed flashes of big potential is sophomore year. After a bit of a slower start this season, he took off like a rocket for Paul Short and crushed it. Fantastic run.

Individuals
As you've probably gleamed from previous comments in addition to this post, the race was super fast this weekend. We didn't get to see Liam Galligan unfortunately, but the other top runners involved did their best to make up for it. The individual title was grabbed by GFS's Nick Dahl in a phenomenal win. He joined the very small group of sub 15:20 runners on the course and defeated two proven XC studs in Lefever and Kujdych. I'm a huge Dahl fan and always hoped he would do some damage during XC, but I was also usually quick to point out the relative discrepancy between his track dominance and his work during the fall. Well, that, so far at least, looks to be completely out the window as he defeated a couple other top 10 types as well as out of stater Dalton Hengst (who is technically an in stater). This was a very exciting performance and hopefully just the beginning for a guy who's big goals likely revolve around the end of November.

Zach Lefever continues to show his prowess on the trails with a poised run for second (in a very quick 15:23) and Rusty Kujdych gets another bronze to pair with his Briarwood finish. Both of these guys have just happened to run into monsters in recent weeks (Galligan, Dahl, Nate Henderson) otherwise they'd have a couple golds around their neck (although worth noting, Rusty got one last weekend at CRN). I'm really high on Lefever this season, but Kujdych (as just a junior) is turning in a consistent, strong grinder. He's going to be tough to drop at the big meets like districts and states and has a shot at a top 5 finish in Hershey.

Tristan Forsythe, the A Foundation champ, proved he was one of the best in the state, regardless of class, dropping a 15:40 for 8th overall. Although there were some strong A performances at McQuaid, he looks like the best in his classification and is adopting the Griffin Mackey strategy of racing all across the state (worked out well for Mackey as he won the state title last year in A).

The top AA performer came from North Pocono for the second straight year, but this time it was David Haines not Matt Kravitz. Haines dropped an impressive 15:49 to mix it up out front. Haines has been a relative unknown (even more so than Kravitz was), but he should be on everyone's radar now. Keep in mind the past 3 individual AA champs have come from District 2 and in 2012 they had the A state champ (and A state runner up). So they do alright for themselves out there.

Seth Slavin had an impressive bounce back race after Hershey and ran 15:45 while his teammate Gabe Sullivan also broke 16. These guys are turning into a pretty monster duo who could take 1-2 at the district championships in D11. Quinn Serfass of Loyalsock in District 4 was a surprise member of the sub 16 club in this one as well. He's out of A in D4 and was second at Districts last year behind Hunter Crawley (who he edged out today). Watch out for Serfass as a top 5 threat at states this year if he keeps this up. His next battle with Crawley (ran 16:09 to Serfass's 15:57 but has two state medals in XC) should be a can't miss match up.

A few other shout outs to Matt Bodon of Stroudsburg (16:12) who ran a fantastic race to lead his Stroudsburg team to a surprise 16th place team finish, just 12 points back of District powerhouse Parkland. Ethan Bernstein, also in D11 but at Saucon Valley, clocked a strong 16:18 in the White Race. AA D11 has produced state medalists every year since the 3 classification split with Flank, Gonoude, Condloy and Bucior so Bernstein is hoping to be nice in line.

In freshman news, Josh Lewin of West Chester East ran 16:26 in the White Race to place 9th overall. If Stoga's Schultz wasn't in the brown race stealing headlines, this time and performance would be incredibly noteworthy. WC East finished 2nd overall in the White team race standings.

Well that's all I have to say about Paul Short. Unfortunately, that's going to be it for tonight and this post. Be sure to check back on Monday/Tuesday to see the conductor's thoughts on the other meets from this weekend.

If you just can't wait for more things to read, feel free to check out the NCAA section, the Running Diaries or the comment section of the posts (they've got some of the best stuff on the site).

7 comments:

  1. District 1 Team Ranking
    1. DTW
    2. CR North
    3. Spring Ford
    4. LM
    5. CB East

    ReplyDelete
  2. LM= Aces
    Conestoga = Pioneers

    -former CAL star

    ReplyDelete
  3. Central Cambria might be a team to watch in AA. They've been having a pretty consistent season with a strong pack. Really young team that also has depth.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Chesmont Individual and Team Predictions? (assuming everyone runs)

    ReplyDelete
  5. 1) Hoey
    2) Smucker
    3) Bullock

    1) DWest

    ReplyDelete