Friday Feature: The Carlisle-Hershey Double Monster Preview Extravaganza

By Jarrett Felix

Well gang, we are entering the biggest regular season weekend of the year. Over the past decade, the Carlisle Invitational and the Foundation Meet at Hershey have been two of the most important and star-studded meets of the regular season. Don’t believe me? Go back and check last year’s Foundation results. The individual champs in each classification (Griffin Mackey, Dominic Hockenbury and Jake Brophy) each went on to win the state championship a little over a month later. And there was plenty of team action as well. In A and AA, the eventual state championship squads (Camp Hill and Dallas) finished 2^nd in the meet, gaining the valuable experience they needed to turn the tables on the teams that defeated them by November.

If we take a look at the individual state medalists from AAA last year, 17 of the 25 raced at either Carlisle or Foundation this weekend in 2015. That includes the top 7 overall and 9 of the top 10. In total, 30 of the top 50 finishers from the AAA state championship were active at one of these two meets and out of the top 10 teams, 1^st, 2^nd, 4^th, 6^th, 7^th, 8^th, 9^th and 10^th all did battle at either Hershey or Carlisle High. What I find interesting, however, is that every year there are a few guys who finish way down in the standings at both invites but then turn things around to grab medals at states. Matt Wisner was one of the biggest movers from a year ago as he finished 46^th at Carlisle before earning a top 25 state medal. It speaks to how much things can still change even in a month’s time.

Carlisle

But that won’t stop us (particularly me) from taking a lot away from this weekend. Let’s start with the Carlisle Invitational. Ignoring the out of state schools (who will have plenty of talented dudes mixing it up), the meet is set to feature 5 of my current top 12 ranked runners including the top 4 overall. Noah and Sam Affolder of Carlisle will look to use the home course advantage that has helped Zach Brehm and Kyle Hurston win three championships in recent years. But they will have to battle with the top two returners from the AAA state championship in Josh Hoey and Nathan Henderson. With the talent assembled, I think this race has the chance to be truly special and we might even see a course record fall on a prestigious lay out. The fastest time in recent history in Kyle Dawson’s winning 15:17 back in 2006.

There’s plenty of other intrigue to consider in this one. For starters, Carlisle’s prized top three of the Affolders and senior Isaac Kole, will do battle with an up and coming trio from the same district: Lower Dauphin’s Kyler Shea, Jared Giannascoli and Colton Cassell. The LD boys took 3-4-5 at Big Spring and won the team championship. Carlisle’s Jack Wisner should be the x-factor that the Herd needs to take down LD as he’s a very talented #4 runner who, as just a sophomore, still has the potential to continue improving and challenge Kole for a top 3 position.

A pair of other district 3 schools will be putting their big three on display as Mechanicsburg and Cumberland Valley also toe the line. Mechanicsburg is led by junior Morgan Cupp and senior Alex Tomasko with Andrew Sulon at the 3. CV has Yahya Soliman, Josh Higgins and Andrew Brown as their core. CV’s trio took 2-3-4 in a recent dual meet against State College (behind only defending state medalist Nick Feffer) and acquitted themselves well at PTXC where they finished as one of the top PA teams. Personally, I really like Morgan Cupp as a breakthrough candidate. Every year at this meet there is a junior who breaks through with a time in the 15:40s or even 15:30s.

All in all, District 3 will be well represented. In addition to the squads I’ve mentioned, you also have Cedar Crest (runners up at Big Spring), Hempfield (two time defending district champs, may not race this one all out as they haven’t in the past), Hershey, JP McCaskey, and Manheim Central (monster top 4 performance at Big Spring). Plus we have AA powers Boiling Springs, East Pennsboro and Trinity who were all in the top 4 at districts a year ago behind York Surburban. We will learn a lot about the top schools in the district this weekend, but as much as the pre-race discussion will (and should) focus on the loaded talent out front, the most important part of the race will be in the middle as each team’s #4 and #5 runners fight for position. Who has a tight enough spread to make a name for themselves in this field? Personally, I think Manheim Central has great sleeper potential if they can get a bit more out of their 5. Hershey seems to always have a pack, but will Sullivan or Morris step up as the front runner they will need in this big race? And how will some of the young freshmen and sophomores running in key spots (JP McCaskey, Mechanicsburg) handle the spotlight of a big race?

The district 3 drama should dominate the news, but don’t forget about District One’s powers DT West and Henderson. DT West is the defending state champions and, despite losing 4 of their best 5 guys from last season, they are still contenders again in 2016. They have a strong top three of their own (Shaun Bullock, Ryan Barton and Jake O’Neill have all been ranked on the top 50 at one point this season), but their depth is what will have to carry them in this field. I can’t wait to see them match up with the current state title favorites Carlisle. It’s hard to imagine the Herd losing on their home course, but West is a very intriguing match-up if they can put together a tight spread. The x-factor here will likely be Ryan Barton. He ran terrific at this race last year, but will need to be even better to give the team a low stick in a very crowded field.

Meanwhile, Henderson is now a couple years removed from their back to back state titles in 2012 and 2013. They’ve had some injury concerns through the early season and a hungry group of talented ches-mont squads have been chomping at their heels. They’ve qualified for states every year since 2007 out of the loaded district one, but maybe this is the year they miss out? We will see if Smucker comes back to the line-up, but keep an eye on talented sophomore Calvin Pash as a sleeper in this race.

A few final sleepers include Evan Dorenkamp, a sophomore from Manheim Township who started the year with an 8^th place finish at Big Spring. Also watch from Nathan Kaplon of Central Dauphin who finished 10^th in the same meet. CD has a rich history of crushing this course. And Austin Maxwell of Kennett is signed up to compete this weekend. He’s a multi time state qualifier and last year finished in the top 50 at the state championships.

Hershey

What’s cool about Hershey is we get to see each of the classifications split out on their own and really get a feel for the state championship. Potentially, we could have the future state champ in each of the three races for the second straight year (although some really talented guys will be racing elsewhere including at least two of my current picks for gold). Let’s start by taking a look at A. Defending champ Griffin Mackey will lead Sewickley Academy up against their district rivals Winchester Thurston. Mackey, who had some injury trouble last year, will look to show just how healthy he is as he battles emerging junior Tristan Forsythe, the winner at RWB. Sewickley, the runner up at states each of the past two seasons, doesn’t have Ben Clouse (last year’s foundation runner-up) or Henry Maekem (freshman state medalist) on the entry list as far as I can tell, so they will be down a couple key pieces. Meanwhile, Winchester Thurston looked fantastic in meet one and have a killer top 4 with Forsythe, Littman, Hay and the consistently improving Pollack.

The defending state champions, Camp Hill, will also be in attendance, led by the surging Ian Gabig. Gabig has been excellent in his first races of the season, but now sees his first big A challenge with Mackey and Forsythe ready to roll. CH will also get a chance to see how they stack up in the team battle after losing their top 2 runners from a year ago.

Here’s my sleeper pick in this one: Ryan Thrush. The 400m state champion (yes, I said 400m state champion) is one of those kids that can do it all. He’s run 48 seconds in the open quarter, but he’s also run 1:52 for 800. Thrush has consistently run XC (and done quite well for himself) and spent a lot of his early years as a 800-1600 guy rather than a 4-8 guy. He defeated Cranberry’s state medalists (Harrison Keenan and Sam Lander, who will both be in this one) at a recent dual meet and will look to prove that was no fluke on the hilly state course.

Other names to watch include sophomore Ethan Knoebel (who picked up a big early season win already) and Luke Guyer of Ridgeway.

The AA race is going to be very entertaining as well. For starters, we have the defending state champions in Dallas. They return everybody from a year ago (and will return practically everyone again next year) and so they come in as big favorites to repeat. But, personally, I think they will be vulnerable at this meet (and perhaps all season). They get a big test from a variety of programs at Foundation as they will battle 2014 state champs York Suburban (hungry for revenge, looked strong at PTXC blue) and perennial top 5 team Grove City. But there’s more. The WPIAL will send Knoch, South Fayette and Greensburg Salem to this meet as well. That’s one heck of a line-up. I know how strong the front running is on those teams’ out west, but a big time invite like this should tell us a lot about how good the packs behind them are.

By the way, don’t sleep on Wyomissing. They are another team with a little bit of pack questions, but they are loaded out front. Led by Joe Cullen (big winner at the Blue race at PTXC) and freshman Ben Kuhn, this team has shown they have real potential to make noise in 2016.

Individually, I expect this race to be wild. There are two sophomores with realistic shots at gold: Mark Brown of Greensburg Salem and Jonah Powell of Grove City. Powell recently won a strong invite over Connor Walsh and now has a chance to beat a ton of Top 50 talent. Brown, who finished a hard fought second to Forsythe, also has an invite win this year and a great stable of teammates looking to make noise at this meet. Personally, I think a couple juniors may end up taking the title as Isaac Davis of Jersey Shore (sub 16 at Big Valley for the win over Nick Feffer) seems like the early favorite, but Joe Cullen is a really intriguing upset pick.

All that said, don’t sleep on the seniors. Aaron Pfiel looked very good at RWB and with his own talented training partner (junior Sam Snodgrass), he’s being pushed in practice to do big things.

Other names to watch include Jack Zardecki of Dallas, Max Freyermuth of Knoch and the York Suburban boys. Also watch for Tyler Lesser form Milton and Sam Lenze from Indiana Area. Defending state medalist Callahan Lennon of HG Prep should also be a factor.

In AAA, we should see an incredibly tight team match up. Cardinal O’Hara, who debuted a loaded top three, with have to prove their pack is good enough to defeat some of the tightest spreads in the state. Most notably, that is North Allegheny who has had under a 30 second spread through the first two meets combined. But that tight spread hasn’t meant much to analysts so far as the Tigers haven’t proven their pack will be far enough up the field to contend. Instead the packs at LaSalle, CB East, Spring Ford and Mount Lebanon have gotten some love.

The team race is incredibly deep and, considering recent years, I predict there is going to be a breakout team. Two years ago it was CB East and last year it was surprise squad Owen J Roberts who finished 4^th overall. This year it could potentially be another PAC team as you can’t sleep on Boyertown, led by Dominic Derafelo. They ran very well at PTXC and showed real potential at the Harrier invite as well. North Penn is another team with a strong pack and hopes of climbing the ranks. But the team’s out west might be the best of the rest as Seneca Valley (very capable looking top 3), Pittsburgh Central Catholic (excellent under the radar showing at Boardman) and Allerdice (district 8’s top squad) will all make noise.

But wait, I’ve got more for you. There’s State College (although losing Mitchell Etter will really hurt, they still have a talented core and a top notch front runner), Pennsbury (always competitive in recent years) and Unionville. I’ve practically mentioned the entire race so I should have hit on at least one of the teams who will be the talk of the town when the race concludes.

Individually, the big names will mostly be at Carlisle, but that doesn’t mean this field isn’t loaded. Liam Conway, Ryan James, Nick Feffer and Connor McMenamin are all currently in my top 15. Any of these guys could leave with the title and I’m sure all really want it. Each has something to prove. Conway and McMenamin, despite excellent showings at districts, have yet to earn state medals in XC. Ryan James is fresh off a tough loss at his home course and Feffer wants to show he’s not just an 800 guy and get a huge statement win on the state course.

But lurking just outside, with a real knack for the Hershey hills, is Seth Slavin of Pleasant Valley. He was just outside the medals a year ago as well, but he looked strong at PTXC and is running this meet for the first time. He usually does his best running late in the season, but that won’t stop him from being a prime contender for the win in this field.

As has been mentioned, watch for Matt D’Aquila of Lower Merion to make noise in this race. He had a killer outdoor track season with a breakthrough 3200 at districts, plus he’s a sub 16 guy from Paul Short last year. The LaSalle duo of Paul and Addison will be gunning for O’Hara’s top dogs Inglis and Patrick James in a little PCL rivalry match up. That could push all four guys to big marks. And I should probably throw LaSalle’s Brendan Price in there as well. He’s been a consistent varsity presence who led this squad at this meet last year with one of his best races of the year.

There’s too many sleepers here to name that all, but I will say watch for the top freshman and sophomores in this race. There’s a ton of talent in those classes and it should be fun to see who comes out on top. Fox Chapel’s frosh is Christian Fitch (debuted at sub 17 at RWB) is my name to watch.

Predictions

Foundation

A

1. Forsythe

2. Thrush

3. Mackey

4. Gabig

5. Keenan

1. Winchester Thurston

2. Cranberry

3. Sewickley Academy

4. Penns Valey

5. Elk Lake

AA

1. Davis

2. Pfiel

3. Cullen

4. Powell

5. Brown

1. York Suburban

2. Dallas

3. Wyomissing

4. Grove City

5. Greensburg Salem

AAA

1. Feffer

2. McMenamin

3. Conway

4. James

5. Slavin

1. Spring Ford

2. LaSalle

3. O’Hara

4. North Allegheny

5. Mount Lebanon

Carlisle (PA Only)

1. N Affolder

2. Henderson

3. S Affolder

4. Hoey

5. Shea

6. Cupp

7. Kennedy

8. Kole

9. Dorenkamp

10. Tomasko

1. Carlisle

2. Cumberland Valley

3. DT West

4. Lower Dauphin

5. Hershey

Worth watching: Don’t be surprised if Zach Skolnekovich ends up with the fastest time of the weekend from Sharpsville. If Carlisle isn’t as mind-blowingly fast as I’ve speculated it could be, watch for Skol to potentially push the pace out west.