It’s The Final Countdown: NCAA Championship Predictions

Garrett Zatlin

Wednesday. June 10th. 4:00pm. The NCAA track and field championships will officially start then and you better be ready. Besides that, there’s no need for small talk. Here are Garrett Zatlin’s 2015 NCAA Outdoor predictions.

800

5. Shaquille Walker (BYU)- 1:47.55

4. Brannon Kidder (PSU)- 1:47.13

3. Clayton Murphy (Akron)- 1:46:93

2. Brandon McBride (Miss. St.)- 1:46.49

1. Edward Kemboi (Iowa St.)- 1:46.32

Explanation: It seems that the times are so stacked and so close compared to the indoor season. There are so many breakout stars that should all be in the argument for a national title that it becomes nearly impossible choose. Yet, it is the two beasts of this field that will go at it in their final collegiate showdown. McBride and Kemboi will face off in a race for the ages that will decide the superior in their rivalry. While it could swing either way, I give it to Kemboi. The guy hasn’t lost and he controls his races with such poise. McBride has come on very strong as of late, but might not be able to match the hot streak Kemboi is on. As for the rest of the field, Clayton Murphy will surprise the crowd and beat out some of the fastest 800 men this season. He is such a strong runner and executes his race plans to perfection. He is a winner first and I’ve loved watching his progression from indoors. Shaq Walker will have to back me up this time and use his newfound maturity of racing at the top level to grab the fifth spot.

1500

5. Daniel Winn (Oregon) 3:41.20

4. Cristian Soratos (Montana St.)- 3:41.00

3. Peter Callahan (New Mexico)- 3:40.89

2. Chad Noelle (OKST)- 3:40.62

1. Jordy Williamsz (Villanova)- 3:40.58

Explanation: The amount of thought and time I put into this single event is more than I’d like to admit. The field is just so stacked at every angle that I’m constantly switching around where to put everyone. The fact that I need to leave two sub 3:40 guys out of my top is five is unbelievable (Thomas Joyce and Robby Creese). While those outside of my top five are talented, the men inside my top five are almost unreal.

I love Soratos’ racing style. He’s gutsy and has no fear which is crucial in a race like this. However, in a group of lethal kickers (most notably Callahan), I don’t see his approach working as well with guys who have the ability to cover his strong mid-race surges. The problem with Callahan is that he’s not as comfortable from the front as other guys like Noelle. Callahan might have a rocket kick, but after watching Jordy out-match the King, it’s tough for me to pick against him. Jordy is an absolute monster who has beaten the best and is going into the race with the mentality that he can beat anyone. As for Noelle, he has never lost a 1500 this season and leads the NCAA with the fastest 1500 time this season. Both men will battle at Hayward Field to prove why they deserve a title.

3000St.

5. Mason Ferlic (Michigan)- 8:38.01

4. Anthony Rotich (UTEP)- 8:36.00

3. Ole Hesselbjerg (E. Kentucky)- 8:35.76

2. Zak Seddon (FSU)- 8:33.44

1. Stanley Kebenei (Arkansas)- 8:29.15

Explanation:  It bothers me that Edwin Kibichiy isn’t shown in my picks. The guy has a lot of talent, but not be as tactically savy as Ferlic and Rotich in races like these. Rotich has the experience while Ferlic has been on a strong surge as of late grabbing excellent times and getting wins. Ole Hessselbjerg is slightly underrated as he gets lost in the hype by the winning ways of Kebenei and Seddon. Hesselbjerg will be a strong competitor I expect to compete till the end. Of course, at that point, it will be Arkansas’ Stanley Kebenei who will have a victory over Zak Seddon. Kebenei hasn’t shown a reason as to how he could lose. He’s simply too strong and has been preparing for this all season. Kebenei is your NCAA champion.

5000

5. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)- 13:45.39

4. Thomas Awad (Penn)- 13:43.25

3. Kemoy Campbell (Arkansas)- 13:41.58

2. Eric Jenkins (Oregon)- 13:39.45

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)- 13:38.77

Explanation: The two best distance runners in the NCAA on their home track? Give me one reason why they wont go 1-2? Cheserek and Jenkins have sat in the shadows all season waiting for their chance to race hard. I expect them to play it smart in order to pursue the 13:20 man, Kemoy Campbell, who has to be frustrated after coming so close to an indoor title (that was spoiled by the Oregon duo). East region guys like Awad and Knight will step into a race that favors the west region in terms of overall talent. Awad has competed hard and made himself relevant in nearly every event there is this season. He has some quick legs under him, which will be beneficial in a race that is surely to be strategic. Knight won the ACC 1500 title with one shoe…he may be a freshman but he is a gamer and should hold onto a top five spot.

10,000

5. Craig Lutz (Texas)- 28:45.82

4. Martin Hehir (Syracuse)- 28:40.90

3. Eric Jenkins (Oregon)- 28:33.03

2. Jason Witt (BYU)- 28:31.44

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)- 28:26.95

Explanation: Last year, we saw Lawi Lalang and Eddy Ches race in one of the fastest 5k’s in NCAA championship history. While that was the 5k, this year’s 10k has the same potential. Jason Witt might be the only one in the field that can best Edward Cheserek. It will be a difficult race for Witt to manage. His 27:54 indicates that he can push the pace and shake nearly anyone. However, if Ches or Jenkins are still with him at 400 to go, I’m not sure he’ll have the leg speed to hold them off. If Witt is smart he’ll start pushing the pace at 4-5k to go. Ideally, Witt will want to be as close to his 27:54 PR as possible (duh) and create in an insurmountable gap in the process. While he is capable of sub 28, pushing the pace like that is extremely difficult mentally and might leave enough room for Ches and Jenkins to come storming back. When it comes down to it, I see Cheserek making up a massive gap while Jenkins simply can’t catch up. Cheserek will out-kick Witt in the final 300 meters and the Oregon Duck will defend his title.

Oh and there are others in this race too! I’ll finally give some love to our boy Craig Lutz. He has been relatively consistent this season, but his 10k’s have been the most impressive. In front of Lutz, I envision Martin Hehir running a strong last 2k and sitting comfortably in the middle of the front-runners and the rest of the field to grab a fourth place finish.

This is it ladies and gents. The final showdown is fast approaching. So the real question is…Who you got?

Get your popcorn ready,

Garrett

Caleb Gatchell

I’m going to start with the 800 because, well, that’s the best event in track and field. It’s also the one I follow the closest, so I figure this way there’s a chance I’ll start out looking like I know what I’m doing before making a complete fool of myself later on. I think there are four really big names, Kidder, McBride, Walker, and of course, Kemboi. I think McBride and Kemboi are both really safe bets in this race. They’ve both been in this situation several times, and they have the experience to avoid a big upset in the prelims and then put themselves in a good situation going into the last 200 of the final. Shaquille Walker is another runner I feel pretty confident in to avoid a big stumble in prelims, but I worry about him in the final just a little bit. He’s been running in the 1:45 range pretty consistently outdoors this year, but he doesn’t have experience in an NCAA final, and that worries me just a little. When in doubt, always go with experience. Brannon Kidder, while possibly the most talented, is also the one that scares me the most. While he seems to almost always make the final, he never does it comfortably, and I worry that one of these times that will catch up to him. He also has a bit of a history of underperforming in the final other than his freshman year when he placed 3rd. After these 4 guys I think it’s really wide open. You’ve got a whole group of guys in Murphy, Engels, Capwell, Garn, Arroyo, Schnulle, and Kibet who have a ton of potential. Problem is, I can’t fit them all into my top 5. Arroyo and Garn scare me a bit, Arroyo because he’s had issues getting through prelims, and Garn because he lacks experience and false started at indoors. I like Capwell and Murphy a lot though, and while Kibet has a ton of potential as well, I think he’s still about a year away from being in that top 5 discussion. Capwell is super underrated, even coming off a runner-up finish indoors. So, I guess my final picks would be:

1: Edward Kemboi
2: Brandon McBride
3: Dylan Capwell
4: Brannon Kidder
5: Shaquille Walker

I guess I’ll just go to the 1500 next. This race really intrigues me because there are a few really fun storylines. We have Chad Noelle who has shown to be an excellent championship racer, Christian Soratos who grabbed our attention indoors, and Jordy Williamsz who is one of the few people to take Ed Cheserek down in the last couple years. Then of course we have the boys from Oregon, and a sneaky good Rorey Hunter. Zach Perkins has been here and been successful before, and Robby Creese is Mr. Consistency, at least when it comes to getting to this point. So how in the world do we sort this out? I think Jordy Williamsz is super dangerous in this race. He has proved that he has great speed, and is also extremely savvy when it comes to race tactics. Chad Noelle would be another guy that fits into this category. He has a great last 100 meters, and he has proved that he knows how to put himself in position to win a race. You also can’t discount Cristian Soratos, but he just hasn’t proved that he can win a tactical championship style race. I’m also not sure if I can trust Robby Creese to come through in the clutch. He has the talent, I just can’t think of a defining championship race for him. As for the Oregon boys, I think Blake Haney has a lot of talent, but lacks the experience to make a big impact this year. I’m a big fan of Gregorek though, and I think Winn could surprise as well. I think either Perkins or Hunter will also have a big break out race, I’m just not sure which one. Ultimately, it’s really hard for me to pick between Williamsz and Noelle. I think this will be an all-time great 1500 final with the two of them neck and neck all the way to the line.

1: Jordy Williamsz
2: Chad Noelle
3: Cristian Soratos
4: Johnny Gregorek
5: Zach Perkins

I guess I’ll just keep moving up in distance and go with the 3k Steeplechase next. Obviously Stanley Kebenei is the favorite here, but you can’t discount Anthony Rotich. Both are running extremely well so far this year, and I would look for that to continue this weekend. One thing to keep in mind is that Rotich has excellent speed as he shows us indoors in the mile each year. If this race comes down to the last 400, he could be very dangerous. Edwin Kibichiy has been consistently good this year as well, but I don’t see him breaking up the top 2. Also worth keeping an eye on are Zak Seddon, Mason Ferlic, Connor Winter, and Ole Hesselbjerg.

1: Stanley Kebenei
2: Anthony Rotich
3: Edwin Kibichiy
4: Connor Winter
5: Mason Ferlic

The 5k will feature the incredible 1-2 punch of Ed Cheserek and Eric Jenkins, so the inevitable question is, can anyone break that up? Kemoy Campbell, Justyn Knight, and Pat Tiernan are three names to keep an eye on that could do it. Thomas Curtin is another interesting one especially given the indoor season he had, but I don’t think he’s quite been at that level outdoors. I think Kirubel Erassa and Erik Olsen are potentially underrated sleepers that could also have a big day. And oh yeah, Will Geoghegan is in this race too. Ultimately, I think Ches and Jenkins are on a different level than everyone else, even coming off the 10k. Behind them though, I think it will be an excellent race for spots 3-8.

1: Edward Cheserek
2: Eric Jenkins
3: Justyn Knight
4: Kemoy Campbell
5: Kirubel Erassa

Finally, we have the 10k, also featuring the two, the only, Edward Cheserek and Eric Jenkins. There are definitely some other big names though, from Craig Lutz to Futsum to Scott Fauble. There are also a couple of guys from the East region in Brandon Lord and Martin Hehir that could place well. Ultimately, once again, nobody is on the level of Ches and Jenkins, but, I do think Lutz and Futsum will make them work for it. Brandon Lord is definitely underrated, and I think getting in a race with these top guys will pull him along to a good place as well.

1: Edward Cheserek
2: Eric Jenkins
3: Craig Lutz
4: Futsum Zienasellassie
5: Brandon Lord

Alex Fox: NCAA Predictions (Outdoor)

800m

This race was a blessing and a curse for me indoors; I was the only one who managed to correctly predict the winner in Kemboi and I was also possibly the entire person to correctly include Ryan Manahan in their top 5. Unfortunately, I was alone in picking Jesse Garn in the top, and after he was inexplicably DQ’ed in the prelims, my point total sky rocketed.  So, after an outdoor season for this distance, where do I stand? I can say one thing for certain: I’m sticking with my man Kemboi for the win. He came through for me inside, and I’d be foolish to pick against him given his credentials and knack for winning. After him, there is a plethora of talent to pick from, including Brandon McBride, Shaq Walker, Brandon Kidder, Ryan Schnulle, and Garn. The first preliminary heat is loaded, as Kemboi, Walker, Kidder, and Schnulle are all featured. Whoever survives that first heat should fare well in the finals. Overall, I think that this will be one of the best events of the meet given the number of guys with a lot of talent.

Top 5

1) Kemboi

2) Walker

3) McBride

4) Kidder

5) Andres Arroyo

1500m

The mile was easily my best event for indoors, as all of my predicted runners finished in the top five, and I was the only contributor to include Chad Noelle (New York power!) Can I repeat my success for outdoor? With no one named Cheserek in the race, picking a winner is a little more difficult. That’s not to say that Oregon isn’t well represented, as Daniel Winn, true freshman Blake Haney, and Johnny Gregorek all qualified. Other big guns from the PAC 12 also will be featured in the race, including Izaic Yorks, Thomas Joyce, and Ben Saarel. The east coast is also well represented, as Jordan Williamsz, Robby Creese, and Robert DeNault will all look to make noise in the finals. Lastly, I can’t forget about my man Chad, who showed he has what it takes to win the big races with his NCAA leading 3:38 earlier this season, and the equally talented and unpredictable Christian Soratos. As to be expected, this race will be anything but boring.

Top 5

1) Noelle

2) Williamsz

3) Joyce

4) Soratos

5) Winn

5k

What’s a distance race without some Oregon Ducks? Without Parker Stinson to deride in these predictions, they may become a little more accurate, but also that much less entertaining. The big names in the race are obviously Cheserek and Jenkins, who will be joined by teammates Will Geoghegan and the oft forgotten Jake Leingang. In addition to the Oregon boys, other big names in the 5k include Aussie superstar Pat Tiernan, a personal favorite in Kemoy Campell, Morgan Piersan, and Stanford teammates Erik Olson and Sean McGorty. A few surprises are also in there, namely freshman sensation Justyn Knight, New York native and the former butt of some of my jokes Tommy Awad, and Kirubel Erassa; all three forwent opportunities in the 1500 to race here. Whether this was a smart decision has yet to be determined. Although I think we can all agree on the winner, it’s always fun to watch the king do his thing.

Top 5

1) Cheserek

2) Jenkins

3) Campell

4) Geoghegan

5) Tiernan

10k

Guess what team is heavily featured in this race? If you said Syracuse, you might be me proofreading this. If you said Oregon, you’re everyone else reading this. Sorry about that, I just didn’t want to miss the opportunity to point out that three Orangemen will race this event. Onto to the matter at hand: the top 5. The 10k is on the first night, allowing for Chenkins (the couple name I’ve given to Cheserek and Jenkins. It’ll catch on) to double back in the 5k. They’ll be finishing top two…or that’s what history would indicate. If anyone can take down this dominant duo, it’s Jason Witt of BYU. This guy has been killing the track game all year, and that’s not about to stop at Nationals. Futsam Zienasellassie has all the talent in the world, but it never seems to translate onto the track, and his teammate with a much easier name to spell in Matt McElroy will also be in the race. A couple of west coast studs I’ll be looking for are Pierce Murphy and Scott Fauble of Portland, who had an underrated cross season and collegiate career. Finally, everyone’s favorite runner and person Craig Lutz will be shocking the field, winning in an incredible 24 minutes, followed by a victory lap in a beautiful green and yellow tee shirt with the word “ETRAIN” featured on his glorious body.

Top 5

1) Cheserek

2) Witt

3) Jenkins

4) Hehir

5 (but #1 in all our hearts)) Lutz

3k Steeple Chase

I’ll be honest, I don’t know much going into this race, as steeple just isn’t one of those events I follow. That said, I do know enough to recognize Anthony Rotich as the favorite; dude is a beast. I also know that Stanley Kebenei can hang with the best of them, and Tanguy Pepiot is very talented, as long as he avoids premature celebration (we’ve all been there). Other names I recognize from other races and what not are Mason Ferlic, Connor Winter, and Kyle King. Looking at seed times, it appears that mystery names in Ole Hesselbjerg (I promise that’s what his name is), Darren Fahy, Jackson Neff, and Zak Seddon all have this steeple chase thing down. Hopefully I don’t pick the last place finisher in my top 5 and screw up my point total like I did twice in indoor (Garn and Elkaim).

Top 5

1) Rotich

2) Seddon

3) Kebenei

4) Ferlic

5) Hesselbjerg    

Sean Collins

800:

1. Brannon Kidder

2. Brandon McBride

3. Shaquille Walker

4. Edward Kemboi

5. Dylan Capwell

I feel like it’s time that Kidder gets a championship. The biggest issue here is that Kidder, Kemboi and Walker are all in the same heat. That means that they are all going to run super hard in the prelims to make sure they get through. I just hope they recover well for the final.

1500:

1. Jordan Williamsz

2. Chad Noelle

3. Christian Soratos

4. Robby Creese

5. Izaic Yorks

After Williamsz 4xMile win at Penn, I just can’t see him losing.  Soratos could end up anywhere in this field and I hope his tactics work better here than they do indoors. And sadly, I just can’t see Creese getting a championship.

5000:

1. Tommy Awad

2. Edward Cheserek

3. Justyn Knight

4. Will Geoghegan

5. Sean McGorty

Have to stick close to home for this win. After watching him all year, I just see it as difficult for him to lose this race. Cheserek will likely play games again like in the 4x1600 and I think Tommy has the strength to beat him. Geoghegan will also be strong here as he is the best fresh Oregon Duck in the race will stick close to Cheserek just like indoors.

10000:

1. Edward Cheserek

2. Eric Jenkins

3. Futsum Zienasellassie

4. Craig Lutz

5. Martin Hehir

I basically felt like I had to pick Cheserek for a win somewhere and I think its easier here than in the 5k. Jenkins always runs well when Cheserek is with him and I just can’t see anything different than 1-2. I’ve loved Zienasellassie since HS and I think that the No. Arizona training will work for him. And with 4-5, I had to stay try to the blog and my high school by picking Lutz, and then Hehir (who won my high school invitational 4 or 5 years ago.

3000 Steeple:

1. Stanley Kebenei

2. Anthony Rotich

3. Mason Ferlic

4. Edwin Kibichiy

5. Ole Hesselbjerg

After kebenei and Rotich, I really have no idea what I’m picking here… so yeah.

Evan Hatton

800

I’d say there are three guys who are pretty much shoo-ins for the final: Edward Kemboi, Shaquille Walker and Brandon McBride.  Brannon Kidder has made huge strides this year, specifically his 1:45 at Payton Jordan.  He’s coming off of a big win at Big Ten Champs over some very solid competition in Joe McAsey.  I’m a fan of Clayton Murphy and he hasn’t lost a race since Indoor NCAAs, I definitely think he has the ability to show up when it counts and gets himself a spot in the top 5.  Ultimately, I think the race plays out like this:

1. Edward Kemboi - 1:46.12
2. Brannon Kidder - 1:46.35
3. Shaquille Walker - 1:46.51
4. Brandon McBride - 1:47.20
5. Clayton Murphy - 1:47.94

1500

The first heat is headlined by Daniel Winn, Robert Denault, and Joe Hardy.  Hardy has had an excellent freshman campaign at Wisconsin and he is definitely a sleeper pick for me.  The second heat of prelims is unbelievably deep and should be really tough to make it out of.  Williamsz, Soratos, and Noelle should make it out with relative ease.  Creese and Gregorek make it out in the next two place spots.  I think Soratos is hungry for the win.  His FloTrack interviews said that he was alright with second in indoor, but you could tell he wants that win.

1. Cristian Soratos - 3:39.31
2. Chad Noelle - 3:39.78
3. Jordy Williamsz - 3:40.42
4. Peter Callahan - 3:40.91
5. Joe Hardy - 3:41.16

3000SC

If Stanley Kebenei doesn’t win this race, I would be shocked.  Behind him is where it gets a bit tricky.  Jackson Neff of Ohio State has dropped some fantastic times this year and I saw him get the win at the Jesse Owens Track Classic in commanding fashion.  Mason Ferlic has also had an awesome year and should make some noise.  Anthony Rotich is the biggest threat to Kebenei, getting the win at West Prelims with ease.  Watch for PA Alum Ryan Gil to possibly sneak into finals.

1. Stanley Kebenei - 8:37.23
2. Anthony Rotich - 8:37.87
3. Jackson Neff - 8:38.42
4. Edwin Kibichiy - 8:40.61
5. Mason Ferlic - 8:41.24

5000

Jeez, you have to imagine that this is gonna be the Cheserek-Jenkins show, but there is so much talent in this race.  Tommy Awad, Jake Leingang, Thomas Curtin, Sean McGorty, the list goes on and on.  If the 22 guys in this race that aren’t Ches and Jenkins are smart, they won’t let this be tactical, because if it is there are two guys who can win it.  This race is going to be fast, very fast.  I think Kemoy Campbell gives them a run for their money and ultimately breaks up the duo of Ches-Jenkins, but Ches still gets the win.  

1. Edward Cheserek - 13:20.91
2. Kemoy Campbell - 13:21.07
3. Eric Jenkins - 13:21.26
4. Thomas Curtin - 13:33.45
5. Justyn Knight - 13:34.61

10000

Ches and Jenkins are starting their NCAA festivities in the 10k on Wednesday night and look to continue their success from indoor championships.  The blog’s best friend Craig Lutz has had an awesome season, and I would really like to see him finish out the year with a strong performance.  Another set of teammates Zienasellassie and McElroy will toe the line as well.  I’m a big fan of both runners and I think its very possible there are only three teams represented in the top 5.  A fresh Cheserek is dangerous, but I can’t bring myself to give him the double.  Jenkins gets the win.

1. Eric Jenkins - 28:24.54
2. Edward Cheserek - 28:24.87
3. Futsum Zienasellassie - 28:26.09
4. Craig Lutz - 28:31.36
5. Pierce Murphy - 28:36.76

-Evan

Jarrett Felix

For those of you who don't know, I got smacked during indoors. Like literally smacked. So now I'm going to try and redeem myself ... Otherwise I may have to just stick to high school or risk seriously damaging my reputation ... Tried to do this fast because I ran instead of doing this post in advance. My bad. In the words of Ron Weasley: "(s)He needs to sort out his priorities ..."

10k
1. Cheserek
2. Jenkins
3. Witt
4. McClintok
5. Zeinasellasie

Purposely chose to avoid picking Craig Lutz to make absolutely sure I didn't jinx him. I'd be surprised to see anything but a Ches-Jenkins 1-2 at the finish line. Interesting idea on lets run recently pointed out that Jenkins is about to turn pro and would really benefit from the extra headline of being a double NCAA champ outdoors so this win may end up more important to him than Eddy ...

800m
1. Kemboi
2. Capwell
3. McBride
4. Kidder
5. Schnulle

I'm going to count on the man from Florida always showing up and getting me a solid low amount of points. Capwell is awesome but a bit untested. Intrigued to see if McBride can get revenge and if PSU can finally get an NCAA gold.

1500m
1. Soratos
2. Noelle
3. Williamsz
4. Callahan
5. Winn

Sleeper is Perkins from Air Force who was second here two years ago. Always been a big Callahan fan, he could surprise. Williamsz kicking ability is well documented. I just really like the way Soratos has raced this year. I feel he deserves the win. Obligatory U of O homer pick to round out the top 5. Secret wish is for a big day from Saarel. But way to risky of a pick to land in my top 5.

5000m
1. Ches
2. Jenkins
3. Geogehan
4. Tiernan
5. McGorty

For the record, I don't actually think there will be another Oregon sweep. That being said I purposely left Campbell out of my predictions because, although his ceiling is the greatest and I'd love to have him in a fantasy league, if he blows up or drops out I get killed in the point scoring. So I picked what I view as the safest 5 (that meant leaving out guys like Knight and Awad as well). I'm thinking Ches will have extra motivation to take down Jenkins after what happened indoors. Feel like he has something to prove ... but admittedly so does Jenkins since Ches claims he let him win.

3k Steeple
1. Rotich
2. Kebenei
3. Ferlic
4. Kibichi
5. Pepiot

I'm coming in basically blind to the steeple. Nowhere near the level of expertise I need to type things and make them seem legit. So I picked the five most absurd names and threw them down on a piece of paper. They also all happen to have really good steeple PRs, but still, look at those names!

Happy Championship season from all of us here at the aftermath.

-your conductor, train

The Etrain 11: When Life Gives You 9th Place, Make Lemonade

by Jarrett Felix

Growing up, after a hard fought basketball game or a particularly good math test, my mother and father used to give me the same piece of recycled parenting jargon: "Remember, there's always going to be someone worse than you, and there's always going to be somebody better". On it's surface it seems such an obvious thought, but honestly, it's a concept I feel the need to remind myself of on almost a daily basis. It's the ultimate reminder that you can never settle, you should always be chasing the next person. But at the same time, you have to be able to be proud of what you've accomplished and appreciate the gifts you have been given in your life.

There are few runners that are strong enough to make it through to the state championships. Fewer still have navigated the preliminaries and made it into the finals. From here, in each event, exactly 8 athletes will leave with hardware. Only 8. So naturally, the place most heartbreaking to receive when the dust settles is 9th. One spot away from the shiny necklace.

In these moments, it's harder to remember the someone worse and easy to think of someone better, probably eight someones better to be honest. At every state meet, someone has to be 9th. Even if you take 12 sub 4 minute milers and throw them on the track, someone has to be 9th. This year, in the AAA races, we saw some incredibly talented athletes slotted into that ill-fated 9 hole. So while the wound heals, remember my parent's old lesson. And allow me to take this moment to remind you why you should be proud of your accomplishments.

Nathan Henderson, JP McCaskey 9th 3200m 9:08.89

For starters 9:08.89 has won state championships in the past. By my count, over 50% of them including the 2013 state title. Sophomores are rarely ever this fast and this is a truly remarkable time to run at such a grand stage. But when the dust settled at Shippensburg University, those were simply numbers as a historically deep field torched the record books and all-time lists, leaving medal spots 7 and 8 for a pair of sub 9 two milers.

As a sophomore this fall, Henderson was making strong leaps in his performance. Milesplit had him marked down as just a 5:11 miler heading into the 2014-2015 season and he had yet to qualify for a spot in any of the state championship meets. But things turned quickly with a third place finish at the Bull Dog Invitational (and a nearly two minute drop in time from the previous year) and then an outstanding 11th place finish at the always competitive Carlisle Invitational two weeks later.

He didn't slow down from there. He grabbed a Lebanon-Lancaster League Championship, finished 5th at Districts and completed the brutal back-to-back Hershey stretch with a 13th place finish at states, the highest by any sophomore in AAA. Not too shabby for a first state meet.

But clearly he wasn't finished. Double gold at Millersville. Double gold at Lebanon-Lancaster Leagues. And then an eye-popping 9:18 3200m at Districts, second only to eventual state champion Zach Brehm. That time was nearly a 10 second PR and was over a minute faster than his final run at Leagues in Spring of 2014.

Coming into the state meet, many so called experts, left Nathan far off their ballot for the medals. It was obvious the 3200m was an incredibly deep event. Things were going to be fast. It was far from an environment that a sophomore with a 9:18 PR was suppose to be able to handle. But Henderson stuck his nose in the race anyway. He hung tough in the pack, even when he started to slip. When Brehm went by him during late race surge, Henderson used it as extra motivation and persevered. It paid off as he grabbed another massive PR, dropping to 9:08. He ran 9:07 indoors for 3000m.

Now Nathan will enter his Junior season after running on the heels of defending cross country state champion Jake Brophy with a new pack full of conferences. Plus that hair just gives him all sorts of swag.

Sean Weidner, Lower Dauphin 9^th 1600m 4:20.52

During the 2013-2014 season, the boys from Lower Dauphin were running the best races the program had seen in the past decade thanks in large part to seniors Jeff Groh and Cole Nissley. The boys from LD grabbed a District championship in Cross Country and Groh won individual gold outdoors and dropped times from 1:56 to 9:13. When these two greats graduated, the team would need to find a new source of leadership and inspiration.

Enter Sean Weidner. During Cross Country, Sean stepped immediately into a front running role. He grabbed a 4^th place finish at the PTXC invitational and followed it with an 11^th place run at Pre-States. District 3 was loaded during the fall of 2014 season, so it was going to be difficult for Sean and his teammates to make any sort of dent in the top group of teams. But under his guidance, two sophomores, Colton Cassell and Kyler Shea, emerged as true stars and gave the team a potent top three that was almost enough to pull the upset and retain their spot on the starting line in Hershey.

Despite the team’s absence, the three Lower Dauphin individuals that did qualify certainly got their money’s worth. During the difficult D3 double at Hershey, Weidner followed up his 10^th place finish at districts with an impressive 20^th place finish at the state championship meet. He also helped teammate Kyler Shea finish in the top 50 as just a sophomore.

During the indoor season, a time when many top runners outside of the Philadelphia Area are absent, Weidner unleashed a flurry of impressive, under the radar performances, including a strong 3k win at the Lebanon Valley Invitational. Ultimately, his hard work paid off at states when he won the slower section and earned himself a state medal, finishing 8^th.

When spring hit and the weather turned, Weidner really hit his stride. He clocked PRs in all of the major distances, running 1:55.7h, 4:20.10 and 9:19.76, the last of which added him to the PA elite all-time list. His district meet double of 9:19-4:20 was particularly impressive. He finished third in the 3200m behind only eventual state champ Zach Brehm and super soph Nathan Henderson and doubled back for second in the 1600m behind Brehm.

Although Weidner came up just short in the 1600m final, he fought valiantly throughout and was a narrow 9^th place finisher. During a year where some thought Lower Dauphin would disappear from the spotlight with the loss of two fantastic seniors, Sean took it upon himself to ensure the flame was not extinguished. His team had an impressive title defense and Sean’s leadership and example have blazed a trial for his younger teammates to follow in his footsteps and usher in the next era of excellence at LD.

Thomas Nicewicz, Mechanicsburg 9^th 800m 1:55.31

At the 2014 Stan Morgan Invitational Thomas Nicewicz of Mechanicsburg ran the agonizing time of 2:00.09. According to milesplit, this was his fastest mark of his sophomore campaign around the oval. But, as is the case with many close misses, the heartbreak quickly turned to motivation.

As the 2015 outdoor track season began to heat up, Nicewicz was emerging as a solid 800m sleeper pick, winning the Bruce Dallas Invitational and placing third on the double at Pan Ram. His first big breakthrough came at Shippensburg when he ran 1:58.99 for his first invitational sub two of his career. Although the time was strong, the Junior from Mechanicsburg was far from a household name, especially in a district that featured stand outs like Zach Brehm, Matt Wisner, Brook Wilson and rapidly emerging Ethan Gatchell.

When Districts rolled around Nicewicz was slated to run both the 1600m and the 800m, a double that concerned some analysts. He was written out of the state qualifying picture by many in favor of the big names and stars. But Thomas was unintimidated. After a disappointing 1600m, he returned with a fire for the 800m and stuck his nose in the thick of things to finish in a time of 1:57.17, which would be good enough for 5^th place and a spot on the line at Shippensburg, the same place where he had clocked his early season breakthrough almost a month earlier.

What made the race even more impressive was the fact that Nicewicz’s seed time had placed him 13^th on the performance list. That meant he had to run out of the slower of two sections with few runners to push him to a fast time. In fact, he won his heat by a margin of almost three and a half seconds. At a district championship, every fraction of a second is so important. It speaks volume of Thomas’s character that he was able to push himself to his limits in the slower section and to have the mental fortitude to ensure that he got the SQS time of 1:57.32. This fortitude would serve him well at the state championships.

At states, Nicewicz was in the second of two heats with a group that included John Lewis, the top seed at 1:49.15 as well as Dylan Eddinger of Boyertown. In the first section, 7 runners had broken the 1:57 barrier and in Thomas’s section another 9 runners had seed times under that mark. Considering Nicewicz was fresh off a fairly sizable PR to even get to 1:57, he was something of an afterthought in the second preliminary.

However, his mental fortitude proved strong once again. He hung on courageously to a blistering early pace from Eddinger and gave everything he had in pursuit of a top 4 spot, which would guarantee him a trip the finals. But the top four looked to be clear and a group of 4 runners around him were all fighting feverishly for a chance to advance on time. Nicewicz’s final meters allowed him to finish a close 5^th, but his time, without the knowledge of FAT results, was going to be very close to the bubble. When the results were announced, Thomas’s efforts were rewarded. Again, every tenth of a second had matter as he was the last runner to qualify for the Saturday’s final.

In the final, the Junior could have simply been content to enjoy his moment of victory from Friday afternoon. Few had expected him to get to this point and in field featuring men with PRs at 1:55 or faster, Nicewicz was an underdog to say the least. However, he didn’t simply fold. In a race where the leader strolled through 400m in an unthinkable 51.1 seconds, Nicewicz fought his way around the track, keeping careful track of the medal positions and racing hard to try and get there.

When the dust settled, Nicewicz ended up in the dreaded nine spot. However he had clocked a nearly two second PR less than 24 hours after running his initial PR in the prelims. His time of 1:55.31 marked an impressive five second drop from his 2:00.09 from a year previously. Thomas came a long way during the 2015 season and showed fantastic amounts of strength and heart during his impressive journey to the state finals.

Twin Valley, 9^th 4x800m 7:55.29

During a year that will largely be remember for individual performances, the seniors from Twin Valley reminded us what it means to be a team. Although they had their fair share of individual highlights, Twin Valley was always willing to sacrifice for one another and put “we” ahead of “I”.

In the fall, the Twin Valley boys navigated the Cross Country season well. They had a strong group of seniors, leading the charge with experience and maturity. The team had heart and they were determined to get back to the state championships at Hershey. At the District Meet, Lower Dauphin flooded the front running positions with their impressive top three, but Twin Valley’s pack of team players was able to outlast their competitors and secure a spot at the state meet.

During the indoor track season, Josh Coakley emerged as a strong 800m threat, running 2:02 in December. With the Geary twins and Dom Digiacomo also providing strong splits, Twin Valley was able to produce some excellent relay marks including a 10:50.80 DMR that earned them yet another trip to the state championships.

By the time the outdoor season had rolled around, TV was clicking on all cylinders. Josh Coakley had run fantastic marks of 4:21 and 1:56 while The Geary twins were rolling around the 4:30 and 2:00 barriers. Dom Digiacomo continued to display excellent improvements in speed, while still maintaining his excellent long distance strength.

The team looked excellent at districts as the broke the eight minute mark in the 4x800m and completed the triple state qualifier. Although other teams may have featured flashy names or better front runners, Twin Valley bested all but Cedar Crest despite having no individual state qualifiers.

Once the boys tripped out to Shippensburg, the team faced a big test in the prelims. Within their prelim were five district one teams, all of which had run 7:54 or faster at districts. There was also Cardinal O’Hara, the District 12 champions and cross country power houses, who came in with a 7:55 seed. Only the top four were guaranteed a spot in the final and, despite TV’s best efforts they had to settle for a hard fought 5^th. They did manage to beat out multiple other top tier teams, but it was unclear if it would be enough as their time was just 8:01.

After a nerve-racking second heat, Twin Valley watched the clock tick down on the 8^th place team in Heat 2 and breathed a sigh of relief as they realized their mark would just barely be good enough to escape day one and run in the finals on Saturday. They were the last team to qualify.

In the finals, the pace was extremely quick from the gun. Despite an impressive run by Colin Geary on the lead off leg, most teams were running around 1:56 or faster at the first exchange. It was hard to stay confident, but Twin Valley continued to compete, ignoring their seed time or their prelim finish and fighting hard to pursue a medal.

Despite an incredibly impressive kick over the final 100m by anchor Josh Coakley, Twin Valley had come up just short of a medal, finishing in 9^th place. However, the relay ran an excellent time of 7:55.29 and cut a few more seconds of their relay PR. In typical Twin Valley fashion, it was a team effort from four seniors who all gave it their best. According to milesplit, the splits recorded for each runner were faster than any of their previous open PRs.

At the end of the day, you can only control your own efforts, you can’t control what everyone else does. These seven runners all toed the line and states and gave remarkable efforts, including some fantastic PRs. What you appreciate the most about each of these athletes is their heart and their determination. They each faced obstacles, but they never gave up.

In the past, 9^th place finishers or 26^th place finishers in XC, have gone on to do impressive things in later years. They use these moments as motivation for the future. Guys like Tony Russell and Vinny Todaro never forgot their close calls for the medal stand and went on to become state champions. Others like Aaron Gebhart and Ben Scheetz have used their finish as motivation to win district championships or set NCAA records.

 
Each of these runners proved this season that they are not only physically strong, but mentally strong. And that is something that never goes away. Regardless of what is next for each of these runners, the future looks very bright. Even if there is always someone better, that should never stop you from trying to be the best. And for these kids, I know it won’t.

Regionals Recap: Amankwah OUT; Oregon Sends 8

by Garrett Zatlin

First off, I apologize for the late post! I’ve been busy with work and other things that 99% of you don’t care about (let’s be real, it’s actually 100% of you). There was some great action this past weekend and a lot to talk about. I have also created a separate post so that you can look at my predictions and compare them. Make sure to check that out below for some pretty interesting results. So what did happen at Regionals?

Predictions and Results Comparison

800

East

I wont start this off without acknowledging the blaring miss in the results. Alex Amankwah misses the cut! The guy who was a NCAA title contender didn’t even make it past prelims! No one was expecting that and I’m guessing that he got a little too comfortable with the amount of effort he had to put in. It’s a shame but adds a little drama to a relatively predictable event. Brandon McBride takes a win and is starting to look very strong in the later part of the season. That’s an excellent sign for this guy who is looking to make up for his poor indoor nationals performance. Overall, most of the big names will make the trip to NCAA’s.

West

The west consisted of less big names making it difficult to figure out who would go where. The favorites, Shaquille Walker and Edward Kemboi did their job with relative ease. We all know where Kemboi is at but Walker seems like a different man than he was during indoors. It’s amazing what a season at the elite level does to a guys maturity during the big races. I’m very happy to see guys like Josh Hernandez and Brandon Moore make the cut. They haven’t run blazing fast times but they are arguably the most consistent 800 guys out there.

1500

East

Looking at the results, it seems that I got a little excited with the Villanova and Georgetown guys. Out of the six Nova/Gtown guys I predicted to make the cut, only three did. Some guys who I had never heard of stepped up big time. Domanic (Miss.), Zivec (Maryland), and Timlin (Indiana St.) are all guys who were basically no names that are now making the trip to Eugene so props to them. Williamsz and Creese get the job done by cruising in for 7th and 8th place finishes respectively.  PA alum Ned Willig was the first one out in the fastest heat of the prelims.

West

Soratos, Noelle, Joyce, and Callahan are now set to match up in what is sure to be one of the most entertaining 1500’s in a very long time. Keep in mind that Erassa and McGorty also opted out of this event for the 5000 so it’s tough not to think about the “what if’s”… Let’s also not forget to mention that Oregon sent three guys through in this event, none of whom are named Cheserek or Jenkins. PA alum Tom Coyle was the first one out in the finals.

3000St.

East

While the favorite and other big names might be in the west, the east steeplechase has outstanding potential with a load of guys that are flat out winners. Zak Seddon has crept into my favorite runners list with his victory here. I legitimately believe that Seddon has a chance to win the title if Kebenei has an off day. Mason Ferlic is another guy that has steadily been clicking off great times as he finished second in this race. S/O to fellow Hokie Stuart Robertson for grabbing that last spot. The guy was apparently just a walk on and has now done tremendous things for that program. PA alum Ryan Gil is heading to Oregon after an 11th place finish!

West

It seems that Anthony Rotich can do everything. Just this outdoor season, Rotich has a 3:43.72 (1500), 3:59.93 (mile), 13:31.59 (5000), and an 8:39.70 (steeplechase). I’m surprised he didn’t go for the 5000 but when you have a PR of 8:21.19 its tough to argue his decision. Lets just hope we see the Rotich from 2013. Kebenei runs to a ninth place finish and is one race away from claiming his title. The question now becomes, can anyone beat him an honest race? I suppose we’ll see. Tanguy Pepiot adds his name to the list of Oregon Ducks that are racing for one more week while Penn Relays champ, Isaac Spencer can’t get the job done and fails to qualify for nationals.

5000

East

It came as a surprise to me when Awad and Knight dropped the 1500 in favor of the 5000. That said, they have qualified and are set to race the big boys. While the 1500 is extremely deep, I felt that Knight or Awad had a better shot at gold than they did in the 5k (mainly because of Ches and Jenkins). It’s a tough decision to make but we will figure out if it was the right one in a week. Thomas Curtin is the winner of this region which is unsurprising. He has some great victories this season but nothing faster than what he was doing indoors. Props to Ferlic for pulling off the tough 3000St./5000 double and qualifying for both.

West

Of the 12 spots, only 5 spots went to non-PAC 12 power-house teams. Colorado grabs the last spot, Stanford sends two, and Oregon sends an outstanding (yet unsurprising) four guys to NCAA’s. Jake Leingang is typically lost in the shadows of his elite teammates so for him to grab a spot is pretty huge. Like Knight and Awad, McGorty and Erassa dropped what I thought was their best event (1500) to pursue the 5000. It’s a pretty bold choice for Erassa considering he has run 3:39.05 this season.

10,000

East

Matt McClintock must be feeling pretty good. He won regionals and is heading to NCAA’s to grab an All-American spot. The best part, however, is that the hub of distance running, Derek Rubis, is repping him on Twitter so that’s probably the best part of all this for him. Behind McClintock was Brandon Lord who had an outstanding race. He led for the whole thing and looked strong. Is he strong enough to get All-American is the question though. Martin Hehir comfortably takes third place while his very underrated teammates, Dan Lennon and Max Straneva, join him in the top 12. How about Sam Pons? The guy came out of absolutely nowhere to get fourth and will be making the trip to Eugene. The guy was a monster in high school so to see him prosper in his senior year is pretty awesome. PA alum Glen Burkhardt is the eighth finisher and is heading to nationals.

West

The race was relatively unexciting with some of the big names spreading out the field and cruising for the last mile (I use the term “cruising” lightly). Jason Witt and Craig Lutz took turns pushing the pace and it turned out to be a good idea as they kept solid positions all throughout the race. Malachy Schrobilgen grabs the last spot and I’m pretty pumped for him. He has been a contender all indoor and outdoor season but never got the hype that his opposition attained. The topic now turns to how the race will play out at Nationals. Does the race become slow enough for Ches and Jenkins to sneak up from behind and pull away? Or does someone push the pace hard enough to make Ches and Jenkins work for it from the beginning?

All of these questions and more will be answered in a week. Until then, continue to check out the page for predictions and updates all week!

As always, run on.

Garrett

Discussion Questions

So while I work on some articles, I figure it might be fun for you guys to keep the discussion going as the season winds down. So, here are some questions I thought up (and some other people thought up) to try and keep the fun alive.

What are your All State teams (top 4 in each event)? What are your deciding criteria (state titles, times, key victories)?

Which performance is the most impressive mark of the year? Which performer has been most impressive this year? Which performance of performer was most surprising to you this year?

What was your favorite race of the year? Which events have provided the most drama or the most "wow" reactions?

Who will the Sixers take at #3? Who should they take?

Any big performances left to come at HS Nationals or Junior Nats? 

What's your top 5 for XC next year? Teams and individuals? Top 10?

How much do you love that picture of the Warriors fans? Anywhere near as much as me?

Anyone interested on a write up of the Salazar controversy?

Does the Kyrie injury official sink the Cavs?

Anyone else upset that odds are Peretta, Hockenbury and Brophy will never race each other during this upcoming XC season? And countless other dream matchups will be left to the imagination?

The RJJL investigation may be under way, what's a good place to start? What evidence do we have so far?

Lastly, have you marked your calendars for June 9th and July 12th? How about the NCAA championships? U.S. champs? Monaco? Worlds? Going to be a great summer.

Have at it train station.

NBA Finals Preview

By Jarrett Feix

The NBA Finals is just one night away and since I've been on something of a track overload for the last month or so, I figured it would be fun for me to talk a little basketball.

I actually played basketball for the first time in months Sunday at a park near my house. I'm still sore. It ended up being a pretty physical return to action and I left with a slightly ripped and bloodied shirt, quite the change from going on a casual run through the neighborhoods. 

And this physical element to the game has left two of the most pivotal players in this series with question marks next to their health in Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson (and of course Kevin Love is already down for the count). Kyrie is the main source of non Lebron offense for the cavs as both an excellent attacker and shooter, while Klay is the best perimeter defender for the league's best defense. The ability of these two Ks to produce at their normal level may very well decide the series.

Good news is there has been a long lay off between games, maximizing the time these two have to recover.

It also could make for a pair of rusty teams in Game 1. I think back to the 2001 finals when the Lakers were just destroying everyone so easily they had a long wait while the Sixers played down to the wire in true 7 game grindfests. The Sixers ended up stealing Game 1 in LA against a much better team.

Of course in this case, both teams have had a similar lay off. That being said, I'd guess the Warriors, who have a more rhythmic, flowing offense featuring a best player who is primarily a shooter, would be more vulnerable to rust. Plus, this Warriors team is likely going to be incredibly nervous in their first finals.

Meanwhile on the opposite sideline stands Lebron James, who has done this whole NBA finals thing a few times. He doesn't have to worry about going cold, because he was already an iceberg this playoffs shooting the basketball. The lay off isn't going to make him any worse. He's still incredibly strong, has a great post game and is going to be a nightmare for whoever of the Thompson/Green/Barnes group is playing d.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Cavs steal game one tomorrow.

That being said, I do think the Warriors are a better team. They were the #1 offense and defense this season and just dominated teams during the regular season. In the playoffs things haven't been much different. They have a diverse group of players, tons of shooting, and a great coach who has a few rings already as a player. And you can't forget about that bench. The Warriors go way deeper than the Cavs and have multiple former all stars (key word former) sitting on the pine at tip off.

Both teams have excellent home crowds who have waited a long time for a championship. 

I would say Warriors in 6, but it's hard to imagine Lebron losing in front of his people in game 6. That would be a brutal home coming for the King. 

That's the thing I always come back to. The Cavs have Lebron. Sure they have solid shooting and game changing offensive rebounding, but more importantly they have Lebron. 

So in my mind we are going to blessed with a great series that goes 7 games and either team can win. 

Warriors in 7.

Is what an unbiased person would say.

But what I say ... 

Two words. Steph Curry. Two more words. Splash Brothers. Three letters. MVP. The greatest jump shooter of all time who was once denied a huge pay day because he had fragile ankles has taken it upon himself to break the ankles of everyone else in the league. Riley Curry is going sing blessings for everyone during the parade. 

Warriors in 3. Nothing is impossible with Steph Curry.

*hits chest and points to sky*

Don't Touch That Dial ...

By etrain11

 

I feel obliged to start this post with a brief thank you to Coach Kelly for taking the time to put on a great meet last night. The race of the night was probably an awesome 800m with Sam Ritz, John Lewis and Domenic Peretta all going toe to toe. Guess what, without Coach Kelly and this meet those three guyswould not be racing each other EVER (Independent League, AAA, AA) and instead we got to see a battle of all-time greats. I hope that this meet can continue to grow as we move forward and I encourage more people to come out. Huge props to Ritz for his quick turnaround after Pre, Kolor and Peretta for traveling all the way across the state and to all others who trained the extra time to compete. 

 

Also, again feeling obligated, I just want to thank those that I ran into at states and the distance festival for some of the kind words they said about the blog. It makes my day. Honestly, when I’mtyping out post ideas on Notes in my phone, it’s hard to imagine that there is anyone out there reading. I’m just having fun. It’sonly when you get recognized waiting in line at the state snack bar or grabbing Fritos and a Gatorade at the rest stop on the drive home that I realize the pages views probably aren’t only coming from Steph Curry’s security team as they try to make sure I’m not a dangerous stalker. 

 

Just remember that the readers are the reason this blog is what it is. I’m cocky enough to believe a small percentage of the reason people click here is to see what I have to say, but I know the majority of it is to see what you guys have to say. So don’t stop getting involved and sharing your thoughts. We need it.

 

Plus, just keep in mind that I get stuff wrong all the time (including spelling and grammar. Oh goodness, the spelling and grammar). Keep correcting me on those names and I’ll try to get it right next time. Unless you go to State College because I get a name wrong from that school once a week. And yes I did go 4/4 in the AAA races this year at states (humble brag), but this is literally the first time in 8 years’ worth of predictions that has ever happened. As a math major, I can tell you eventually, I was just going to get lucky.

 

Lastly, I have to give another shout out to the staff I have had the pleasure of working with in the post LXV era. Huge thanks to everyone who has been helping me out and expanding this site to try and make it into great. And another big thanks to Paul for taking the time to stand in the rain and do more videos (while having to listen to me randomly shout out names during the races with no clear line of reasoning behind). I’m sure we can expect more big things this summer from our writing staff with NCAAs and Worlds still left on the agenda. And hey, if you like this stuff, we could still use some more writers …

 

Ah, it looks like I’ve rambled for four paragraphs again. We could probably use some editors or something too … Or at least just someone to say: Jarrett stop talking and get to the point …

 

So back to the point of this post.

 

Yes, with the conclusion of the PA Distance Festival another large percentage of athletes are hanging up their spikes for the season and entering into the down time that is summer. And yes, that means people are likely going to be seriously limiting their blog reading (viewership went down 75% from states week in the last week if you can believe that). But, I want to encourage you guys to stick around with us this summer, because we have some big plans.

 

The big news, of course, is the defining characteristic of the blog will be back: the XC Top 50 rankings and there will be extra emphasis on them this year to ensure they are a weekly feature of the blog (they will probably get their own tab). I think I got away from that too much last year. Let’s be real, why read a big long post when you can just look at a list.

 

The first edition will be released exactly 50 days after the state meet at 11:50 because I enjoy being symbolic with these sort of things. Tune in.

 

We also will be covering the NCAA Championships with previews and predictions and then the US Championships and the World Championships. It will be the first time in the blog’s history we are committing to this stuff so hopefully it goes well.

 

In addition, the 2015-2016 season will be my 10th season of etrain-ing so I have a few plans and maybe a few surprises that I’m preparing to unleash at random points throughout the summer. I hope you will enjoy them. At the very least, they will keep me busy.

 

But most importantly right now, in the short term I will be writing The Etrain 11, a series of eleven stories about this year of the sport (admittedly the main focus is on outdoor track, hopefully I’ll be doing these after each season next year). In order to add an extra dimension to the stories, I’m hoping to get a bit of feedback from a few individuals the stories will be about. If you are interested in helping out and see your name/team on the list below, email me at jarrettfelix1130@gmail.com and I’ll give you more details. If you don’t want to be involved in these stories, I suggest you email me as well and I won’t write anything. If I don’t hear anything from you, I’ll still be writing the stories to the best of my ability.

 

Here’s the people I’m currently projecting to be involved in some way (it’s mostly seniors because that’s my primary focus for these, but other classes will be involved). These are in no particular order (ok they are in some order, but don’t stress about it):

DT West

CB West

Twin Valley

Sean Weidner

Nathan Henderson

Winchester Thurston

Sebastian Curtin

Kyle Shinn

David Fletcher

Griffin Molino

State College

Pennridge

Jake Brophy

Matt McGoey

Zach Brehm

Casey Comber

Colin Abert

Kevin James

Paul Power

Andrew Marston

Dominic Hockenbury

Pennsbury

Billy McDevitt

Nick Dahl

Sam Ritz

Colin Wills

Grayson Hepp

John Lewis

Domenic Peretta

Elias Graca

Dylan Eddinger

Sam Ritz

Jaxson Hoey

Mike Kolor

Oliver Boucher

Killian Nelson

James Cooper

Andre Kelly

Sean McGinnis

Dan Williams

Ahmir Gordon

Kamil Jihad

 

If you think I missed someone who’s story you want told, feel free to let me know! I’ll give everyone a couple days to respond and then I will start working on putting out the posts. The stories will go up once every 3 days starting on June 9th. Yes there is a significance to this number as well. Bonus points to whoever figures that one out.

 

Distance Festival wrap up is coming, but for now I hope I have at least you convinced you a little bit to stick with us this summer …

Official PA Distance Festival Discussion

Edit: Heat sheets now available at www.runccrs.com. Thanks to the commenter a post below for pointing this one out.

The PA Distance Festival is here and it's setting up to be an awesome meet! This post will be the official discussion post for the meet like I have done with some meets in the past. They seem to work pretty well so I tried it again.

I will also post up a few quick thoughts to hopefully stir the pot.

800m

Lewis is back and going after his own record with no prelims or 400m runs in his legs plus the confidence to know he has already run 1:48. He's training through for nationals and a shot at a title and an all time type mark so this meet should be an excellent opportunity to keep his momentum and enthusiasm going.

But this is also setting up to be his toughest challenge of the season. With all due respect to Sauer, Eddinger and Graca who ran amazing this spring, I honestly think the 2nd, 3rd and maybe 4th best 800m men in the state when fresh are Peretta, McDevitt and Ritz in some order. Ritz hasn't run a true time trial 800 yet this spring but has run a 3:47 1500m and ran 1:51 on the double during indoors. Plus I believe he is the only PA runner to beat Lewis at 800m this "year" when he beat him at the Armory in December. The problem for Ritz will be that he has been traveling back and forth across the country this week and just recently ran a hard mile at Hayward. That's going to make it tough to run fast, but I really appreciate that he is not making excuses and still taking this great opportunity to chase a fast time. Gotta give credit where credit is due, this is a gutsy move.

Peretta has been virtually unchallenged at 800 this year with his closest battle probably coming against Graca at Baldwin where he won 1:52-1:54 or something along those lines, both men doubling back from the mile. That's the other thing, keep in mind that Peretta has not run a fresh 800m all year, he's always doubling back from the 16. That hasn't stopped him from running 1:51.50, 1:52.44 and 1:53.30 in three winning efforts, two of which he was leading the entire way. It's possibly Peretta won't lead a single step this time around.

And then there's McDevitt who quietly became one of the best 800m runners in state history at Henderson earlier this year with his 1:51 mark against Sauer and Boswell from DE (set to be in this race as well). McDevitt has been really impressive at 800m, surprising myself and others (and maybe himself) with his ability to go down in distance. He has beaten Sauer the last two times they raced and since Sauer ran 1:49ish/1:51.00 this past weekend, would it be a huge surprise if McDevitt challenged the 1:50 barrier?

Looking for big PRs as well will be some top flight relay runners in Tucker Desko of Pennridge and Evan Emanuel of Penncrest. Austin Howell and Jeff Espinal of Pennridge are also both expected to be involved after their 7:40 run at states. Matt Wisner and David Fletcher are two others to watch, both of whom have excellent kicks and hit their stride at states.

The big question will be can anyone beat Lewis and, is it smart to try? Making too big of a move down the back stretch to try and catch up may take a toll on one of these guys for the final 200m. That being said, Lewis's running style is perfect for dragging these miler types in the field to a fast time. If they sit back, ride the pace and try and kick down the final 200m, we might see multiple sub 1:50 performers in the same heat for what would likely be the first time in PA history.

Mile

Zach Brehm will be running just the mile, leaving him fresh and focused for possibly the first time since last summer at nationals. He's fresh of an 8:55 state meet record run in the loaded 3200m and a third state title. I'd argue Brehm's best event is the mile so after seeing 8:55 the day after 4:18/1:55 it will be interesting to see if he can break that 4:09 mark from two years ago.

Two years ago he was helped by efforts from guys like Tony Russell pushing the pace so it will be interesting to see who, if anyone, is interested in helping keep this one fast throughout. There are some very fast out of staters signed up (Kieran Tuntivate, Boswell, Edwin Rutto) but I would be lying to you if I told you I had any idea what sort of ability/strategy they have in store. But from PA it looks like Mike Kolor, Jaxson Hoey and Colin Abert will provide the main threat for gold alongside Brehm.

Kolor has technically run the fastest of all the PA guys in the field at 1600, having already run 4:11 low. Kolor had a bit of a disappointing finish in the states field where he was 4th, but a non tactical, fast race could suit him the best of the group. He will be out for revenge in this one. 

Meanwhile newly crowned state champ Jaxson Hoey is still undefeated at 1600m this spring and unleashed a killer kick to win states. I doubt he will be afraid of a fast pace or making a big move to try and shake Brehm. Last year at this meet he ran the equivalent of 4:11.13 in the 1500 and this year all signs suggest he's in better shape (speed wise at least).

Colin Abert ran 8:56.00 at states. Any other year that wins. He ran 14:55 at Lehigh. He ran sun 15:50 at states. But somehow he's "under the radar". I completely underestimated his ability for states and he wowed me with his awesome near gold performance. So why should I expect him not to come back with a vengeance in this race? He's run 4:14 solo this year and if states was any indication, he will benefit from some company this time around. 8:56 for 3200m suggests to me 4:10 or fast is in play. Remember Barchet and KJ last year ran about 4:11-4:12 and they were both 9:03ish guys and you can argue Barchet was definitely not known for his speed.

Sleeper in Nick Dahl of GFS. The sophomore ran 9:02 on this very track earlier this year and sophomores historically have a history of running very fast here (see Brehm, Ritz, Logue). Dahl ran 4:18ish earlier in the season, but that 9:02 indicates there is room for more.

Keep an eye on Kyle Shinn and Cooper Leslie, both of whom will get the 1600m on fresh legs after impressive doubles at states in the event. Josh Hoey and Spencer Smucker are both slated to be involved in another battle of top Frosh as are top runners like Perlman, Sappey, Szuhaj, Morro, DiCintio, Knapp, RJ, Wills, Coakley and more.

Lastly, keep an eye out for Casey Comber in the 5000m. Could be an indication of a possible try for that event at nationals later this month. Curious if anyone knows the state record at 5k on the track? I honestly don't know, but I'd imagine Comber has a real shot at it at this meet.