Preseason State Team Rankings: Class AAA

By Blake Behney

I apologize for the delay in the rankings, I just got to school and was quite busy with getting settled. But now I present what you've all been waiting for: the AAA rankings.

5. LaSalle College
Every team on this list is gonna have great depth. Other than CRN (we’ll get to them in a bit), LaSalle probably has the best depth out of the teams on this list. So why are they only #5? Well, they seemingly don’t have a big time front runner like some other teams. Nevertheless, they had 7 guys under 17 last year at states and should do the same thing this time around. The only question left is if anyone will make a quantum leap and become a surefire state medalist? As of now, Evan Addison and Stephen Paul look to do just that, especially after having exemplary track seasons last spring.


4. Downingtown West
No team on this list was hit harder by departures from last season than West. Losing both Hoeys, Sappey, and Ryherd makes West’s chances look somewhat bleak on paper. However, they’ve got a terrific coach and always seem to have guys, Chase Semanyk this past spring for example, who make giant leaps in fitness in relatively surprising fashion. This is more of a gut pick, but I have faith that Top 50 members Ryan Barton and Jake O’Neill lead West to strong performances throughout the fall.


3. North Allegheny
The same argument for West’s ranking can also be applied to North Allegheny, except NA’s recent track record is superior. The past 3 seasons have seen them place in the top 3 at states despite losing their top runner from the season before (generally they’ve lost more than just their #1; as many 3 top guys have graduated on average). NA has proven time after time that, even if they get hit hard by graduation, they’re still going to remain among the state’s elite. They truly only have one question mark entering the fall: which team member is going to make the huge fitness jump and be this year’s Marc Migliozzi?

2. Council Rock North  
After last season’s state meet all it took was a glance at the results to see who the team to beat was for next season. CRN placed 5th, but returns their entire top 6 for this year and are led by Top 50 members Bryan Keller and Ryan Campbell. Although the transfer of the Affolders to Carlisle complicated things, they still have all of the pieces to win a state championship: stud frontrunners, a tight spread, and championship experience. If the season goes smoothly, then expect to see North battling for state gold this November at Parkview.


1. Carlisle
I’m not going to drone on about the Affolder’s times or how they stack up against the rest of state because I’ve already done that. What I am going to do is talk about the other guys that are responsible for making the Herd’s state title dreams come to fruition. Noah has to be considered the favorite for individual state gold at this point with Sam right behind him. In my mind these two are both top 5 locks barring disaster. What makes this team so interesting are Isaac Kole, Jack Wisner, and Max Fiorentino. Kole is one of the most underrated guys in the state (his exclusion from the Top 50 proves that) and has run sub-2 in the 800, sub-4:30 in the 1600, and sub-9:40 in the 3200. His cross credentials aren’t as strong because this spring was his breakout season. Jack Wisner was the top freshman in AAA last season at states and, like Kole, only improved throughout the winter and spring, running 1:57 and 4:30. Given his pedigree and another summer of training, there’s no telling what this kid could do on the grass this fall. And finally, Fiorentino ran 17:26 at states last season and performed well on the track as part of Carlisle’s 4x8 that qualified for NBN. A stress reaction caused him to miss the early part of summer training but he is healthy now. This Carlisle team has a lot to prove, but if they perform up to the level that they’re capable of, which Coach Boardman’s teams almost always do, then they’ll be on top of the podium quite a bit this fall.

Watch List: Spring Ford (young team that barely missed qualifying for States out of District 1 last season. Return 6 of their top 7 and are led by 3 rising juniors.) Cardinal O’Hara (consistent program that performs well time after time. Lost Rob Morro to graduation but return the rest of their top 5 from last season.) Central Bucks West (graduated Iatarola and Fortna but are one of the deepest teams in the state. Not sure if they can replace that firepower up front but should perform well nonetheless.)

38 comments:

  1. Dwest way over rated. Losing the top three is a much bigger hit than you are taking into account. OH and Springford under rated. Both teams have just as much potential as lasalle or dwest and just as impressive coaching.

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  2. Carlisle is just one injury away from being mediocre.

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  3. 12. State College (District 6) 9th in 2015

    Probable Top 3
    SR Nick Feffer (16:16, 22nd @ States ’15; 1:52 open 800 on the double)
    SR Owen Wing (17:04, 95 @ States ’15)
    SO Owen Isham (17:20, 131 @ States ’15)

    4-5 Spots?
    SR Thomas Branstetter (18:07 @Foundation)
    SR Sam Horn (18:23 @ Foundation)

    New Names
    SO Joey Feffer (Small XC experience, but 2:01 open 800 last season)

    Analysis:
    Despite finishing 9th last season this squad has potential to finish in the top 10. With top returner Nick Feffer leading the charge and two strong rising sophomores I do have pretty good feels about this squad. Owen Wing has been continually solid throughout his career and you can count on him to run well at states. Owen Isham ran 17:20 last season and was one of the top freshmen at the meet. Look for him and Joey Feffer to really pick up there game as a duo this season. If both guys can be under 17 minutes this squad can do some real damage. They will need step up performances from runners like Thomas Branstetter and Sam Horn, however, if they are going to make it back into the top 10.

    Point Projection: 290

    Spring Ford (District 1) 6th Place @ District 1 in 2015

    Probable Top 5
    JR Zachary Smith (16:20, 42nd @ Lehigh; 4:32 – 1600; 9:45 – 3200; 17:07 @ Foundation)
    JR Jacob McKenna (16:30, 50th @ Lehigh; 4:32 – 1600; 9:36 – 3200 ; 17:23 @ Foundation)
    JR Shane Ainscoe (16:48, 80th @ Lehigh; 9:47 – 3200; 17:49 @ Foundation)
    SR Patrick Power (16:49, 81st @ Lehigh; 17:57 @ Foundation)
    SR Kyle Reed (17:16, 129th @ Lehigh; 18:29 @ Foundation)
    6/7 – Potential Breakouts
    (SR) John Roshelli (17:29, 163 @ Lehigh)
    (SO) Joseph Power (17:49 5k PR; 4:47 – 1600)

    Analysis:

    Spring Ford is going to be hungry for that state championship bid this season, and they’re going to have to go through some well coached, tough teams to do it, some of whom are deep and others with key front runners. Spring Ford is going to have to be firing on all silenders at the end of October to overcome teams like CBE, CBW, DTW, and WCH, and who knows, maybe even CRN with some injuries.

    Let’s see what we got: I love that their top 3 are all about to be juniors and all ran under 9:50 for 3200 this spring including a really nice 9:36 from McKenna. These guys will be all looking to break into that 16 flat barrier and bring Patrick Power with them if they’ve got a shot at making it to the state meet. Kyle Reed is going to be a key piece at #5, because frankly his 17:16 is fairly week and it makes me nervous. They have got to be strong through 5 to beat out Henderson or DTW. And frankly CBW is going to put 7 in front of him and Power most likely.

    But, they do have a strong wildcard in Joseph Power who ran 4:47 this fall. Not only are those my favorite two numbers, but his brother Paul Power ran 4:47 his freshman year as well. Paul went on to run 16:18 the next year at Districts. If they can get a sub 16:20 out of sophomore Joseph this team is going to be in really great shape to upset some wonderful district 1 teams.

    Projected Points: 260

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  4. 10. West Chester Henderson (District 1) 10th in 2015

    Probable Top 4
    JR Spencer Smucker (16:11, 15th @ States)
    SR Jack Downing (17:02, 88th @ States)
    SR Ben Berkman (17:23, 138th @ States)
    SR Jake Dunleavy (17:45, 177th @ States)

    5th Man?
    SR Thomas King (No XC experience but 4:32 Mile)
    JR Stephen Heck (17:29 @ Chesmont Champs; 18:05 @ Nike Regionals)

    Analysis:

    West Chester Henderson has become a name dominant in the PA state discussion over the past several years, but it seems as though their team dominance is slowing down (similar to O’Hara). Spencer Smucker, however, is still one of the best runners in the state and will be a critical low stick for this squad. They return 3 other runners from last seasons varsity squad in Downing, Berkman, and Dunleavy all whom we have seen steady progression from over the past couple seasons.

    That being said, who will their 5th man be? Most likely I see junior Stephen Heck making a big jump this season into the varsity squad that will be relying heavily on him. They also might work to convince Thomas King to run XC this season as well. I think they will make it to the state meet, but struggle to clinch a top 10 spot.

    Which means, yes, I believe Downingtown West will send 3 runners to the state meet without the team, similar to CRS in 2010 and not return to defend their state title like NP in 2011.

    Projected Points: 249

    9. Central Bucks West (District 1) 3rd in 2015

    Probable Top 4
    SR Ben Smullen (16:41, 46th @ States)
    SR Brian Mass (16:56, 76th @ States)
    SR Alec Hofer (17:34, 158th @ States)
    JR Ben Bunch (16:54, 2nd @ Lehigh JV; 9:38 – 3200)

    Rounding out the Top 7
    SR Teagan Fortna (16:53, 1st @ Lehigh JV)
    SR Mark McClenahan (17:03, 3rd @ Lehigh JV; 16:24 5k on Track @ Kiwanis)
    JR Michael Samson (17:04, 4th @ Lehigh JV)

    Analysis:

    Central Bucks West had a phenomenal year in 2015 that was highly under rated behind DTW. I think this team stepped it up big time and I think once again this season they’re going to be a squad to watch out for despite being 9th on this list. Ben Smullen and Brian Mass return with sub 17 performances at Hershey to lead this group of seniors and juniors. I loved what Ben Bunch did on the track this season running a strong PR of 9:38 in the 3200 as just a sophomore. Look for him to do big things on the trails this coming season.

    If you did not notice, Central Bucks west went 1-4 at the Lehigh conference junior varsity meet. That’s fantastic. I can also bet you that Teagan Fortna was not happy watching his older brother from the sideline at districts and states and will be looking to step up this coming season. I think they’ll have 7 runners under 16:35 at districts and really put pressure on some other fairly deep teams around them.

    Projected Points: 249 (better 6th man)

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  5. 8. Downingtown West (District 1) 1st in 2015

    Probable Top Four
    SR Jake O’Neil (16:37, 40th Place @ States in ‘15)
    SR Ryan Barton (16:38 @ States in ‘14; 4:21 1600)
    SR Drew Alansky (17:07, 99th Place @ States in ‘15)
    SR Shaun Bullock (17:52, 190th Place @ States in ‘15; 4:31/9:43)

    Fifth Man Battle
    SO Payton Sewall (4:43; 10:13)
    JR Evan Kaiser (4:37; 10:14)
    SR Ben Codd (4:40; 10:14)
    SR Patrick Blair (10:01; 16:41 on the track)

    Analysis:

    After losing the Hoey brothers and Henry Sappey, one of the greatest top 3’s of all time (would love to see a post on best top 3’s ever at some point), Downingtown West will be fighting just to make it out of District 1. North Penn was the last team (2011) to win a state title and not make it back to the state meet. Fortunately for DTW they have four very experienced seniors returning to lead this squad. After missing states with an injury in 2015 Ryan Barton looks to lead this squad in 2016. Shaun Bullock will have to step up to show he is a worth #4 at the state level by bringing down his time by at least 40 seconds.

    As for a 5th man they have quite the depth with 4 runners between 10:01 and 10:14 including rising sophomore Payton Sewall. This depth will help push the team as these four will be fighting for the last 3 spots on the varsity squad, but it will be tough to make it out of district one this year as usual with a young team in Spring Ford gunning for a ticket to states.

    To be honest, I think history is cruel. This team would have the best run at states due to their top 3, but I think they and WCH will be fighting for that 5th place spot at districts.

    Projected Points: 242

    7. Parkland (District 11) 14th Place 2015

    Probable Top 5
    SR Hailemichael Geiger (16:48, 58th @ States)
    JR Sam Morgan (17:00, 83rd Place @ States; 4:21 – 1600)
    SR Steven Kaleycik (17:27, 147 @ States)
    SO Nicholas Bower (17:40, 172 @ States, 10:05 – 3200)
    SO Riley Williamson (17:47, 182 @ States; 4:59 – 1600)

    Analysis:

    It was a very, very strong XC year last year, which left a good team in Parkland sitting at 14th when the dust settled. Senior leader and top finisher Geiger returning with a boost from a breakout star Sam Morgan (JR jump) who just ran 4:21 outdoors for 1600. I really like these two runners inside the top 40 and providing low sticks. Watch for Morgan to scare medal contention. Behind them is a nice senior in Kaleycik, who will be mentoring rising sophomores Bower and Williamson who both ran in the 17:40s as freshman at states. Bower ran 10:05 on the track as a freshman, which is extremely impressive imo and I think he has a great chance of cracking that 17 min barrier at states that Morgan just missed last season. If these two sophomores can step it up racing the sophomores of Carlisle and CBE this team could scare the top 5. However, I think they’ll come out on top of the usual tight 6-9 pack this season.

    Point Projection: 239

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  6. 6. Central Bucks East (District 1) 8th in 2015

    Probable Top Four
    SR William Schultz (17:04, 94th @ States ’15; 9:47- 3200)
    SO David Endres (17:16, 124 @ States ’15; 4:31 – 1600)
    SO Cole Sands (17:24, 140 @ States ’15)
    SO Cade Sands (17:26 @ States ’15)

    5th Man Contenders
    SR Dylan Junkin (18:05 @ Foundation)
    SR Dylan McJeever (18:20 @ Foundation)
    JR Declan Earkes (17:04 @ Lehigh JV)

    Major Additions
    SO Sean Lahetta (Only 17:44 @ Lehigh but dropped a 4:39.91 for 1600 this spring)

    Analysis:

    Along with Carlisle this is the biggest SR/SO team around. Despite losing their top 2 runners, including two time champion and Hershey record holder Jake Brophy, this team should improve on their state finish from last season. Senior William Schultz is going to have his hands full of sophomores as Endres, the Sands twins, and Lehetta will be gunning for this teams top spot. The question is how high can they go? This team could go anywhere from a top 7 team to a top 3 team if everyone is on their game and we see big jumps. Honestly I believe this whole sophomore class for them could break 16:40 next season putting them on the podium.

    And they’ve got great depth. Don’t count out seniors wanting to step up and either of the Dylans could be a low 17 guy at Hershey with motivation from this sophomore class. And then the lone junior Declan could make a big jump from him low 17 time at Lehigh last season to push his way onto the varsity squad. However, I will play a bit conservative and leave this team in the 6th place spot.

    Point Projection: 180-230

    5. Cardinal O’Hara (District 12) 6th in 2015

    Probable Top 4
    SR Ryan James (16:11, 17th @ States; 4:24 – 1600)
    SR Billy Donovan (17:08, 102 @ States)
    SR Gavin Inglis (17:18, 126 @ States)
    SR Patrick James (17:23, 136 @ States; 4:25 - 1600)

    5th Man Battle
    JR Jack Becker (17:43 @ Delcos)
    JR Tom McNicholas (17:43 @ Delcos)
    SR Eddie Issertell (18:07 @ Delcos; 4:37 – Mile)

    Analysis:

    After a 6th place finish last season Cardinal O’Hara will once again be fighting to keep many teams off its back for another top 6 finish. With a senior heavy squad this might be one of the last dominant years for O’Hara after what has been a really brilliant stretch since I believe 2010. Ryan James is a total “baller” as etrain would say on the grass. He is gutsy and he’s got the stamina. Despite not having the track chops of his older brother Kevin, he might break 16 at Hershey, which Kevin never did. Behind him there was a continuous battle last season between his twin Patrick, Donovan, and Inglis. Patrick had a poor states race, but this team still managed to beak the 6-9 team point pack. After a 4:25 on the spring he’ll be looking to lead these other two under the 17 minute barrier at Hershey for some low team points that they’ll greatly need.

    The 5th man battle has nice 3 way competition, which is extremely helpful to boost runners up the charts. It seems as though Delco’s is similar if not a few seconds faster than Hershey in terms of jumps for these runners two weeks later, so I think at least one of these 3 will be able to run about 17:30. There are lots of variables in terms of team performance around O’Hara, but I think we’ll see consistent running from them down the stretch.

    Point Projection: 202

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    1. Kevin James ran 15:38 at Hershey in 2014 at States which would be the course record if Jake Brophy didn't run 15:24 in the same race.

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    2. ahhh totally!! was thinking of his junior year when he and Ross Wilson did not break 16! thanks for the correction! :)

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  7. 4. LaSalle (District 12) 4th in 2015

    Probable Top 3
    SR Stephen Paul (16:39, 43rd @ States ’15)
    JR Evan Addison (16:49, 59th @ States ’15; 4:17 – Mile)
    SR Brendan Price (16:51, 66th @ States; 16:50 @ Foundation)

    Possible 4-5 Runners
    SR Greg Galbreath (17:38, 4th @ Foundation; 4:29 – 1600)
    SR Jack Galbreath (17:42, 7th @ Foundation)
    SR Quinn O’Neill (17:49, 9th @ Foundation; 10:14 – 3200)
    SO Mac Costonis (2:01.37 – 800)

    Analysis:

    Despite losing four from their top 7, this squad will most likely repeat their 4th place finish from 2015. This is probably the most under rated top 3 in the state right now, as these three guys all placed above NA’s returning 1 from last season. Brendan Price had a poor states race last year and ran slower than he did at Foundation, and Evan Addison just ran 4:17 for a full mile on the track and is looking to have a huge year. I think all of these guys will be sub 16:30 at Hershey and in the top 35. Usually a pack running team it will be a pack break between the top 3 and the second 3 runners, but I think that the Galbreath twins and O’Neill will push each other to be in the 17:15 range if not faster come November. This is a really special team and I think they will just outlast Central Bucks East for that 4th spot.

    Point Projection: 183

    3. North Allegheny (District 7) 2nd in 2015

    Probable Top 5
    SR Jacob Greco (16:51, 67th Place @ States ‘15)
    SR Zach Deible (16:55, 73rd Place @ States ’15)
    JR T.J. Robinson (17:02, 89th Place @ States ’15)
    SR Mark Hartigan (17:06, 97th Place @ States ’15)
    SR Bobby Lutz (17:15 @ Foundation; 1:59 – 800)

    Other Varsity Contenders
    SR Clark Smith (17:33, 2nd @ Foundation JV)
    SO Luke Turkovich (17:42, 5th @ Foundation JV)
    JR Cam Phillips (17:43, 8th @ Foundation JV)

    Analysis:

    Once again, North Allegheny is going to have a top notch squad in 2016 and will more than likely win District 7, for the 12th straight year. WOW. An average spread of 16:45 have La Salle 4th place this past year and I do not doubt this team will be somewhat similar this season. With a tight pack of returners (24 seconds 1-5 based on PRs at Hershey), NA will have another crack at a top 3 finish in one of the weaker XC years in PA state history. Bobby Lutz fills in nicely for this squad with a 17:15 at Foundation. Zach Deible had the biggest drop on the team from Foundation going from 17:28 to 16:55 and he could be the breakout front runner this team is looking for. Also lookout for rising sophomore Luke Turkovich. I am looking for T.J. Robinson, however, to have a breakout year for this team and grab one of the last medal places to help this team get close to a win. With a tight 2-5 and a breakout star they easily could snag a victory.

    Point Projection: 129

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  8. 2. Council Rock North (District 1) 5th Place in 2015

    Probable Top 5
    JR Ryan Campbell (16:38, 42nd @ States ’15; 9:32 Spring Pre-Injury)
    SR Tim Haas (16:51, 64th @ States ’15)
    SR Bryan Keller (16:52, 69th @ States ’15; 1:55 – 800; 9:37 -3200)
    JR Ethan Koza (17:16, 122nd @ States ’15; 10:05 – 3200)
    JR Sam Earley (17:20, 130th @ States ’15; 1:59 – 800)

    Potential 6th Man
    JR Alex Breslin (17:46 @ Lehigh; 10:16 – 3200)
    SO Matt Mullin (17:23 @ Lehigh)
    SO Jake Boyd (18:01 @ Lehigh; 4:43 – 1600)

    Analysis:

    Yes, this is my team. Yes, this team hasn’t won a title since 1999. And, Yes, the understatement of the year is: Coach David Marrington is hungry.

    This being said let me tell you what I know. Ross Wilson and Chris Campbell were both out of the top 30 as sophomores before jumping into the top 10 as juniors. Ryan Campbell as shown on the track that he’s making that leap. Remember, he did not run XC as a freshman. Tim Haas has been on this varsity team since a freshman and has been pretty consistent on the grass. He was the team’s top runner at districts. Bryan Keller had a stellar states race, which led to his breakout track season running 1:55 and 9:37, which is a really strong range. I think he will beat Haas this season. Both Ethan Koza and Sam Earley continued their XC success on the track with times of 10:05 and 1:59 respectively. Earley does worry me a little bit. I have seen countless CRN runners claim to be “800m runners only” after strong track seasons and it comes to great detriment to the XC squad. You can 17:20 at states kid, if you’re reading: you can/must keep running awesome 5k’s. Earley is the big wildcard here. If he doesn’t step up and run around 17 flat or faster this team won’t get the title.

    I also have to say that this team has two strong years in them with 3 very solid runners looking to break out into the 6-7 spots this season including two sophomores, one of whom just ran 4:43 in the spring a feat that is rare for a CRN freshman runner.

    As much as I love this team and I think Ryan Campell will grab less than 12 team points and Haas and Keller will battle for medals I have a hard time getting them under 120 points even with Koza in the 16:40s and Earley running 16:51. It also worries me that someone might get injuried with Marrington pushing hard for a team title. So much love for this squad, and I will be praying early and often they prove me wrong. At the end of the day, I’ll still put my money on them to win this race.

    Points Projection: 120

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  9. Sorry this post would come sooner but i burn a few of my fingers on a pot while cooking tonight. Tbh i am fairly appauled about the seeming lack of work put in on the post that was just released. But hey maybe that’s just me.

    During my research I noticed that only 5 or 7 teams have returned as top 10 teams over the past 5 years. This factored in during my research and I think once again we will see 7/10 teams once again return, which means we’ll see some movement fro, last season. Seems as though team wise it is going to be the year of seniors and sophomores. If these young guns step up we could see lots of changes in the ranks !!




    1. Carlisle (District 3) 13th in 2015

    Probable Top 5 (And Major Additions)
    SR Noah Affolder (1st @ FL Regions (over state recold holder Jake Brophy)
    SO Sam Affolder (14:58 @ McQuaid; 4:20 - Mile, 9:52 – 3200)
    SR Isaac Kole (17:03, 93rd @ States ‘15; 4:27 – 1600; 9:33 – 3200)
    SO Jake Wisner (17:12, 110 @ States ’15; 4:32/10:08/2:00)
    SR Max Fiorentino (17:26, 145 @ States ’15; 10:07 – 3200)

    Potential 6th Man
    SO Caleb Pedgett (18:35 @Foundation; 4:54 – 1600)
    SO Bryce Dunkelberger (18:37 @ Foundation; 5:08 – 1600)

    Analysis:

    This team is the SR/SO powerhouse. The Affolder brothers are about to be two of PA’s greats. And it makes me fairly upset, if I am being honest, that two guys from NY might best CRN’s best change to win a title since 2003 (when they school was split in two and the teams took 2nd and 3rd at states). That being said LOL, this team is really special. Really not enough can be said about the Affolder’s as Noah will look to break Jake Brophy’s state meet record of 15:24, and I think he absolutely gets the job done being pushed by a very impressive Josh Hoey. Sam Affolder looked sick on the track with a PR of 4:20 but his XC chops over 5k are not as proven as they are over 3 mile courses and his 3200 PR is a bit lacking. I think he’ll still get a top 5 finish however and give them just 4 points for their top 2 runners.

    After that you’ve got Isaac Kole who in my opinion has not lived up to his XC potential and after dropping a 9:33 on the track I am very excited to see him dip into the 16:30s at states. Jake Wisner looked incredible outdoors after a strong XC season and ran 4:32 for 1600. I think he will also be under 16:45. Max Fiorentino has been very steady for this team and should be a 17:10ish guy for this squad. I write potential 6th man, because this could come down to a tie breaker. They have two rising sophomores who ran solid in XC and on the track next year who will need to run hard to secure a state title for this team. Beware, with one injury this team falls into no mans land.

    Point Projection: 116

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  10. Great stuff from both Blake and Forrest.

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    1. Agree, excellent stuff. Blake, no need to apologize for the delay, it ain't like you guys get rich off of this blog! Much appreciated!

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    2. I heard 200k plus benefits. Otherwise this train guy is ripping them off.

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    3. 200K sounds on the high side. I heard the opportunity to write about what you love, artistic creativity, 500,000 + views, and a t-shirt. Train keeps the rest...which basically means the t-shirts he couldn't give away!

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    4. sorry about the hate Blake! my apologies! thanks for putting out new content

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    5. Those t-shirts are worth a fortune.

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    6. What"hate" forrest? All the posts look clean.

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  11. Blake/Forrest. Very nice write up and well thought out. Thanks for putting this together. My evaluations aren’t as good as yours but here are mine.

    It is rare that all 7 runners are on and running on all cylinders especial on a difficult Hershey course. One or two members would have to step and run above average to minimize the damage. That said, I’m picking a teams that are deep and experience to do well in this course.

    1. La Salle: Possibly the deepest team: Potential 2 medalists and a group of 4-5 runners that can pack it in and be a few seconds back
    2. CRN: return most of squad and gained valuable experience. Rich in tradition. If one or two runners can have a break out season, watch out.
    3. NA: Four capable of breaking 17 and always stacked on a yearly basis. Like CRN, if one of two can medal, watch out
    4. Carlisle: Great 1-2 punch, potentially good 3-4 but this team is only 5 deep. No one from that top 5 can afford to have an off day. On a difficult course, this will be a challenge
    5. CBW: great depth and experience from the top 2. This team can surprise. I expect big things from Mass
    6. COH: They have a low stick, some experience and great tradition
    7. DW: Still a very good team despite the lost of top 3. 4-7 from last year were pretty good runners. I’m sure the experience from last year will count.
    8. Springford: Just missed out last year so I’m sure they are motivated to make it this year.
    9. NP: They return their top 6. Maybe a year ahead from being a very very good team.

    Just outside: CBE (3 talented sophomores that gain valuable experience from Brophy), State College,

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    1. Oh man, I suck. I missed Parkland and WCH (told you I wasn't as good as Blake and Forrest). I expect that they will make some noise this year. Honestly, I'm not as familiar with other districts except for D1. Even that I missed WCH which cranks out some good teams year after year. Apologies again for the oversight.

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    2. Here is my second set of prediction:
      1. LaSalle
      2. NA
      3. Carlisle
      4. CRN
      5. DW
      6. CBW
      7. COH
      8. WCH
      9. CBE
      10.Parkland

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    3. After looking at your high praise of LaSalle i wanted to re-look at my prediction for them and I think I went a little soft on their score. If the Galbreath twins run 17:10 and we see top 35 finishes from their top 3 including at least one medalist, whom I am guessing will be Addison. Really this team could be in the 120s to 130s. I would reform my score for them to be at 140 Projected Points, so my apologize to this squad. Really seeing the merit in the skill here.

      I think they're top 3 and CRN's top 3 will be fairly compatible again this season (Last season their 3 returns beat out CRN's 3 returners 90 to 94 in terms of points. This season I see them both going under 60 if not under 50 through 3).

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    4. no apology needed Forrest. Part of the fun is putting a list together. Honestly, the reason I'm high on LaSalle is that no matter how much they lose though graduation, they seem to reload year after year. Furthermore, they seem to have this pack running down to a tee. Now, with Addison as a potential low stick and Price/Paul potential medalists, I see them as a contender. This season will be wide open and I see LaSalle, NA, CRN and Carlisle the leading contenders.

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    5. I have really admired LaSalle's pack running for years now. I think they'll have such a strong 4-6 pack that could really be a big time clincher for a state title (as we know, PA state titles seem to really come down to the wire!!). The apology was for the team more than anything for so staunchly underrating their team's potential points. I'm very much with you on this wide open season between four teams, which is so exciting (and nerve-wracking)!! I think we've gotten a bit too used to the notion of two teams battling for a title, and this sort of field will give off even more of a fun experience for the audience and push these teams to higher limits :)

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    6. Can't wait for the season to start. I hope we will see rankings every week in the blog. You are right, with a much open field we might see some surprises as each team pushes each other.

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  12. Also, here is a condensed list of Etrain's top 10 in opposite order (sorry didn't want to switch it lol)

    51. Aaron Pfeil, Senior South Fayette (7 AA)
    50. Sam Snodgrass, Junior South Fayette (7 AA)
    49. Jakob Jorgensen, Senior Epsicopal (Ind)
    48. Jonah Powell, Sophomore Grove City (10 AA)
    47. Sam Morgan, Junior Parkland (11 AAA)
    46. Christian Babo, Junior Harbor Creek (10 AA)
    45. Austin Maxwell, Senior Kennent (1 AAA)
    44. Alex Tomasko, Senior Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)
    43. Jack Zardecki, Junior Dallas (2 AA)
    42. Ben Littman, Senior Winchester Thurston (7 A)
    41. Brian Mass, Senior CB West (1 AAA)
    40. Mike Morris, Sophomore Hershey (3 AAA)
    39. Jesse Cruise, Senior Cedar Crest (1 AAA)
    38. Jake O'Neill, Senior DT West (1 AAA)
    37. Bryan Keller, Senior CR North (1 AAA)
    36. James Abrahams, Senior Haverford (1 AAA)
    35. Hunter Crawley, Senior South Williamsport (4 A)
    34. Ryan Barton, Senior DT West (1 AAA)
    33. Donovan Meyers, Senior Seneca (10 A)
    32. Isaac Davis, Junior Jersey Shore (4 AA)
    31. Brandon Hontz, Senior West Chester Rustin (1 AAA)
    30. Noah Beveridge, Junior Butler (7 AAA)
    29. Matt D'Aquila, Senior Lower Merion (1 AAA)
    28. Ryan Campbell, Junior CR North (1 AAA)
    27. Connor Walsh, Senior Cambridge Springs (10 A)
    26. Tristan Forsythe, Junior Winchester Thurston (7 A)
    25. Ben Bumgarner, Senior Waynesburg Central (7 AA)
    24. Casey Conboy, Senior Baldwin (7 AAA)
    23. Evan Addison, Junior LaSalle (12 AAA)
    22. Morgan Cupp, Junior Mechanicsburg (3 AAA)
    21. Seth Slavin, Senior Pleasant Valley (11 AAA)
    20. Ben Clouse, Senior Sewickley Academy (7 A)
    19. Noah Curtin, Senior Mercyhurst Prep (10 A)
    18. Eric Kennedy, Senior Kiski (7 AAA)
    17. Kyler Shea, Senior Lower Dauphin (3 AAA)
    16. Connor McMenamin, Senior Souderton (1 AAA)
    15. Mark Provenzo, Senior Franklin Regional (7 AAA)
    14. Liam Conway, Junior Owen J. Roberts (1 AAA)
    13. Nick Feffer, Senior State College (6 AAA)
    12. Liam Galligan, Senior Springfield Delco (1 AAA)
    11. Rusty Kujdych, Junior Neshaminy (1 AAA)
    10. Ryan James, Senior Cardinal O'Hara (12 AAA)
    9. Zach Lefever, Senior Ephrata (3 AAA)
    8. Spencer Smucker, Junior Henderson (1 AAA)
    7. Griffin Mackey, Senior Sewickley Academy (7 A)
    6. Nick Dahl, Senior Germantown Friends (Independent)
    5. Zach Skolnekovich, Senior Quaker Valley (7 AA)
    4. Sam Affolder, Sophomore Carlisle (3 AAA)
    3. Nathan Henderson, Senior JP McCaskey (3 AAA)
    2. Josh Hoey, Junior Bishop Shanahan (1 AAA)
    1. Noah Affolder, Senior Carlisle (3 AAA)

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  13. Don't underestimate Shanahan, they're stacked now.

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    1. Shanahan lost their 2,3,5 and 6 from districts last year to graduation. While their 1-Ettien and 4-Yoquinto return, their times at the AAA level would have had them at 94th and 104th.

      The Hoey brothers will definatly improve everyone, but they still have their work cut out if they want to make it out of district 1.

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    2. They're a sleeper pick, if a couple of guys develop they'll win Chesmonts no problem.

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    3. I agree with this. It is a huge "If" but if someone can help Yoquinto break through at XC (1:58/4:37 as sophomore) and Ettien continues to improve Shanahan could be an interesting sleeper bet. I am fairly certain both older Hoey's went right around 16 flat on the District course as freshman - I have no reason to believe that the third one couldn't put up similar times.

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    4. They've added Foundation and Manhattan to their schedule. Hopefully they field their entire varsity.

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  14. spring-ford underrated

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  15. Don't apologize for "delays". We appreciate the time you put into this.

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  16. It would be interesting to have 3 or more people rank the team so that we get different perspectives. I think many would challenge one ranking while multiple would more or less lead to a consensus.

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    Replies
    1. Another set of rankings is up on http://pa.milesplit.com/rankings/flo50/805-boys-xc-rankings/1416-preseason

      Seems as they are doing some "subjective" content now. For those who cannot see it the rankings are as follows:
      1. Carlisle
      2. Council Rock North
      3. LaSalle
      4. Cardinal O'Hara
      5. North Allegheny
      6. Central Bucks West
      7. Parkland
      8. Spring Ford
      9. Downingtown West
      10. Bishop Shanahan

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    2. Told you, Shanahan! and they'll only move up

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