Tall Paul Weighs in on Paul Short

By: Paul Hayes


I know HS previews aren’t typically my thing, but Jarrett thinks his viewers might be tired of “reading me speak”, so he wants a different perspective on things. And the meet has Paul in its name. I basically have to do it.

It’s no secret that the course at Lehigh is very fast. The flat, easy layout can really play into the hands of the speedsters out there that typically shine brighter on the track. That said, this is still XC and the true studs will likely put on a good show tomorrow.

Individuals-Brown Race

This race is going to be loaded individually, headlined by Sewickley Academy stars Griffin Mackey (ET#8) and Ben Clouse (ET#30). The duo went 1-2 at Pre-States, and Mackey has gone sub 15:40 already this year on a similarly fast course down in North Carolina. Look for Mackey to be in the top pack, with Clouse doing what he can to stick with him.

Matt Kravitz (ET#14) comes in as the top PA returner from last year’s race, where he set his PR of 15:39. He finished 2nd to Hock at pre-states, showing good strength on the Hershey course. Considering his 4:17 mile speed, he should do very well at Lehigh, and make for a good race up front with Mackey and others. 

Big man Kevin Lapsansky (ET#15) comes in from D11, looking to improve upon his 15:48 PR set at this meet last year. Last year we saw his former teammate Colin Abert run away from the field with a jaw-dropping 14:55. He’s been relatively quiet this year, but I think Lapsansky could really step up for his last go-around on a fast course and hang with the top pack. 

Jeff Kirshenbaum (ET#13) didn’t run here last year, but that won’t take anything away from his potential to take this race. Coming off a PR of 15:45 at Bulldog a few weeks ago, and could look to take that momentum forward into this week. He’s only lost to Jake Brophy and Nick Wolk this year, so he’s certainly in the running to take a top spot here.

Don’t sleep on Zach Lefever (ET#19), even though his PR of 16:08 is sitting 20-30 seconds behind some top guys. He finished less than a second (0.99s to be exact) behind Lapsanskyat PTXC, which means he’s certainly confident enough to hang with the top pack and will be there in the final straightaway. 

Also in the mix should be Liam Conway (ET#40), the talented sophomore leader for Owen J Roberts. He’s coming off a top-10 finish at Pre-States, and his 1:58/4:28 speed on the track as a freshman can’t be overlooked when racing at Lehigh. He’s younger than most of the field, but I can see him getting into the top pack and finishing well. 

 

I’m going to make the quick disclaimer right now that I have no idea what the times will be like, as they’re usually tough to predict at this meet anyways with people going for different goals, and Hurricane Joaquin may be ruining some people’s days this weekend to make predictions even more of a mess.However, to quote my HS coach, “There’s no sense in complaining about weather when everyone’s dealing with it.” So assuming everyone deals with the weather, my top 5 are as follows:

1. Griffin Mackey, Junior, Sewickley Academy

2. Jeff Kershenbaum, Senior, Methacton

3. Kevin Lapsansky, Senior, Easton

4. Matt Kravitz, Senior, North Pocono

5. Liam Conway, Sophomore, OJR

 

 

Brown Race-Teams

What I’m really excited for, other than Jarrett rocking his pink shorts in a hurricane for all of you, is the team race. By my math, which at this point is just rough approximations in my head because I don’t feel like doing real math, shows that this is going to a very close race for the team title. 

Hershey comes in with an honorable mention on Jarrett’s team rankings, boasting a strong pack with a tight spread that could pack it in quickly at this invite. OJR runs slightly opposite, boasting Liam Conway as a very strong front runner looking for a low stick, who is then followed by a solid group that took fourth at pre-states against very impressive NA and La Salle squads. 

Narrowly topping OJR at the Centaur Invite was Parkland High School, lead by junior Hailemichael Geiger, who probably has an intimidation factor just from his name. Look for them to be in the mix with OJR and Hershey’s pack.

My sleeper pick in the teams might be a tad biased, but my alma mater West Chester East is in consideration for a top 2 finish in my book. Rob Moser has stepped up as best he can to fill in for the void left by Eric Diestelow, and is being followed closely by seniors Sebastian Hoyos and Jared Franz. WCE has historically done very well at Paul Short, and with some pre-season injuries healing up and the team working well together, I don’t see a reason why they couldn’t steal the show in this team race.

 

Final Predictions: The top three are as follows, separated by less than 15 points total

1. Hershey

2. WCE

3. OJR

 

White Race

I can’t find too many individual stars in this field, but the team race looks to be tight between Shanahan and William Tennent, with WT’s top three of Sean Rahill, Evan Hutton (not to be confused with our Western PA writer Evan Hatton), and Dylan McHenry. Those three can put some serious low sticks in with or ahead of Shanahan’s pack, with a developing 4-5 that could bring it home with a good day. But at the end of the day, I think Shanahan’s pack gives them the edge here, and they come out on top. 

If you don’t feel like doing math for Jarrett’s prediction contest, leave your top individuals or teams in the comments below, and discuss.

 

Train Hard,

-Paul Hayes

42 comments:

  1. Individuals:
    Kirshenbaum
    Mackey
    Kravitz
    Hengst (out of state)
    Lapsansky
    Mcginnis
    Conway

    Teams:
    Hempfield
    OJR
    Hershey
    Parkland
    Spring Ford
    WCE
    Cumberland Valley

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  2. Another perspective is always welcome and appreciated!

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  3. Nice write up. Also, I think Jarrett does a great job. I don't comment much but I truly enjoy reading his articles (along with other folks). So much knowledge so keep it up guys. Back to prediction. I think Kershenbaum takes the win and watch out for OJR.

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  4. I agree with WCE being top 3. As for individuals, Mackey will probably take #1 overall, but his team wont do anything place wise in my opinion.

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  5. Parkland, WCE, OJR and Hershey all have similar packs, it will be extremely tight, probably less than 20 points between them. Any one of these teams could take the title. Although Hershey is least likely to win due to the lack of a front runner, I will say, OJR, WCE, Parkland, Hershey.

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  6. You're treating WC East as if this were 2-3 years ago. All their pieces are gone and they haven't done a good job at finding new ones. This year's team certainly has some decent runners but despite what you'd think based on their instagram posts they're just an okay team. Hoyos posted a caption last week with hashtag goat emoji after they beat up on some pretty bad teams as if that was some sort of accomplishment. This team is a shell of its former self and they all act like this is still the 2012 team that they all were JV on.

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    Replies
    1. The goat emoji is always meant to be taken seriously so naturally I have to agree with you there

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    2. OP, You honestly think the goat caption was serious? They won the meet against some bad teams and they know that. They aren't stupid enough to believe they are s super team with, at that point in time, 1 guy under 17:00. Some people in this blog really have a hard time determining when someone is being sarcastic, except the comment above.

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    3. ^ maybe we should start the "/s" like on reddit to show sarcasm.

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  7. WCE is for real and they showed it today.

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    Replies
    1. ummm, they were 16th...

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    2. Moser has been very sick and didn't finish. I'm sure he's gonna go off when he's better.

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    3. I run for WCE and laughed at this comment. Maybe if we were top 3 we would show it. Top 5 at the lowest.

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  8. Beware, WCE kids are coming to invade the comments and defend not having a good race. But from a statistical standpoint, even if Moser races healthy, they're coming in at around 9th ish. This is just finally WCE getting a good reality check that they're not quite as much the "top dog" as they might've thought.

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    Replies
    1. East will be a solid 3rd at Chesmonts behind two state qualifying teams, that makes them legit.

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    2. How so? They'll have to beat Shanahan again, who I think will be MUCH harder to beat at a league meet, an Avon Grove team with Ilgenfritz, a DTE team with a ton of depth, and a GV team that beat up Unionville and Rustin. I still have them hanging on for third barely, but I mean cmon now, they finished 16th (9th if Moser healthy) in a meet without DTW, WCH, CBE, or CBW. They will not, I repeat, will not make states.

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    3. Did you see the shanahan vs henderson vs dte meet results? What depth does DTE have honestly?

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    4. Agree with both comments, everything in the comment 2 above me is correct, but yeah DTE can't really be included in there with what they've put up.

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  9. State rankings:
    DTW
    NA
    CBW
    Hempfield
    WCH
    LaSalle
    GFS
    Springford
    Parkland
    O'hara

    D1
    DTW
    CBW
    WCH
    Springford
    OJR
    CBE
    CRN
    PB
    Phoenixville (AAA or AA?)
    WT

    WPIAL:
    NA
    Lebo
    PCC
    Seneca Valley
    Chartiers Valley
    Norwin

    D11:
    Parkland
    Easton
    Freedom

    D12:
    Lasalle
    Ohara
    St Joes

    Chesmont:
    DTW
    WCH
    BS
    WCE
    GV

    Any questions about my reasoning? Feel free to ask, I didn't want to elaborate on all these rankings

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    Replies
    1. Those are some solid rankings

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    2. That's about right.

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    3. Interesting to see someone else's list. Thanks for posting. Interesting to see O'Hara at 10. Amazing program, solid front running but lots more accomplished teams thus far this season. I'm also higher on CB East than you, but I like the team's you have in the D1 mix. Very cool list.

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    4. what about mt leb and sc and ojr for the state one

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    5. I just felt like there was an awkwardness seeing the list without Ohara. In hindsight, I really should've put someone like OJR in over them considering they just tied parkland. But the effectiveness of having a 1-2 punch statistically is better than say, having a Jake Brophy. Between a 1-2 punch, and the history of the program, I'd like to see what they produce come later in the season. Its a shame, because unless they pull a 2012 LaSalle, they won't be able to run a full squad at states, because I think they could really flourish there (hell, James PR"d there last year, yeah you heard me right). CB east is hard for me because its difficult to rely on 3 froshs to be apart of your scoring. Also, my mindset for Brophy is, he really can't do that much more for them. He physically can't do better for them in scoring at districts and states, so no matter how good he is, he couldn't get them into states last year with a squad that I think was slightly better. Lebo is also a team like that OJR that probably got snuffed by Ohara. Lastly, SC's first big test against good competition was at Foundation, and they didn't quite deliver.
      -OP

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    6. I have to agree with you for these rankings/predictions. I'm most excited to see how the District 1 meet will roll out. In my opinion, the guaranteed teams to qualify for states would be DTW and CBW to finish 1 and 2 respectively. To take third, fourth, and fifth, it will be a race between OJR, Spring Ford, WCH, and CBE. I couldn't imagine having to pick 1 of these 4 that wouldn't qualify for states as a team... All are great and I still see potential for improvement in many of the runners. Side note, shout out to OJR and Spring Ford for being up in the mix this year. This is the first time we really hear a lot about these teams.

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    7. ohara lost to lasalle last year and still made states. D12 sends two teams now.

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    8. WCE over Shanahan

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    9. ^ I don't know, Shanahan beat them by over 100 points in "the merge" from Paul Short while running in a slower race. No doubt WCE's performance at Paul Short was not indicative of the talent...but I think the CM race for 3-4 could be real close.

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    10. WCE is peaking for Chesmonts and Districts.

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    11. WCE will win the Chesmonts and give DTW a race at districts! Trust me I know how to win and build an awesome team.

      -Chip Kelly

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    12. I agree with Chip. WCE has all the right personnel, they just need to execute.

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  10. Confused why people aren't ranking CRN up there higher. But then again this happens every year as continual proof has to be dropped by this team. Currently though, I agree they're about 7th or 8th, but that's because this squad knows they have time. Especially with so many young kids there will be major time drops come districts.

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    Replies
    1. Andddddd here comes Kentwell. You're making the same argument for teams
      like Springford and OJR. "They know they have time" what so are they running slow to not PR to "trick out" the teams? Sophomores make up practically all of Spring ford and OJR has one of the best sophs in the state. You know they won't beat CBW or DTW, and I'd laugh if you think CRN is smarter than Henderson. There, thats already 5 teams ahead of them, they're out. The odds of them making it are unlikely, please don't turn into a WCE kid promoting his team when the results just aren't quite there. Thanks.

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    2. Internet 101, don't feed the troll

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    3. Let's be honest. We all know what school he went to.

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    4. The WCE kids have more validity than this CRN kid.

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    5. CRN doesn't have a front runner or a solid pack

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    6. Any team could say the same thing.

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  11. ^^ Love WCH....Coach Kelly is an icon and a genius....and conventional wisdom is you NEVER EVER bet against WCH - but unless the DTW bus gets lost on the way - it ain't happening.

    Virtual Meet WCH '13 v DTW '15...thoughts.

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