It’s The Final Countdown: NCAA Championship Predictions

Garrett Zatlin

Wednesday. June 10th. 4:00pm. The NCAA track and field championships will officially start then and you better be ready. Besides that, there’s no need for small talk. Here are Garrett Zatlin’s 2015 NCAA Outdoor predictions.

800

5. Shaquille Walker (BYU)- 1:47.55

4. Brannon Kidder (PSU)- 1:47.13

3. Clayton Murphy (Akron)- 1:46:93

2. Brandon McBride (Miss. St.)- 1:46.49

1. Edward Kemboi (Iowa St.)- 1:46.32

Explanation: It seems that the times are so stacked and so close compared to the indoor season. There are so many breakout stars that should all be in the argument for a national title that it becomes nearly impossible choose. Yet, it is the two beasts of this field that will go at it in their final collegiate showdown. McBride and Kemboi will face off in a race for the ages that will decide the superior in their rivalry. While it could swing either way, I give it to Kemboi. The guy hasn’t lost and he controls his races with such poise. McBride has come on very strong as of late, but might not be able to match the hot streak Kemboi is on. As for the rest of the field, Clayton Murphy will surprise the crowd and beat out some of the fastest 800 men this season. He is such a strong runner and executes his race plans to perfection. He is a winner first and I’ve loved watching his progression from indoors. Shaq Walker will have to back me up this time and use his newfound maturity of racing at the top level to grab the fifth spot.

1500

5. Daniel Winn (Oregon) 3:41.20

4. Cristian Soratos (Montana St.)- 3:41.00

3. Peter Callahan (New Mexico)- 3:40.89

2. Chad Noelle (OKST)- 3:40.62

1. Jordy Williamsz (Villanova)- 3:40.58

Explanation: The amount of thought and time I put into this single event is more than I’d like to admit. The field is just so stacked at every angle that I’m constantly switching around where to put everyone. The fact that I need to leave two sub 3:40 guys out of my top is five is unbelievable (Thomas Joyce and Robby Creese). While those outside of my top five are talented, the men inside my top five are almost unreal.

I love Soratos’ racing style. He’s gutsy and has no fear which is crucial in a race like this. However, in a group of lethal kickers (most notably Callahan), I don’t see his approach working as well with guys who have the ability to cover his strong mid-race surges. The problem with Callahan is that he’s not as comfortable from the front as other guys like Noelle. Callahan might have a rocket kick, but after watching Jordy out-match the King, it’s tough for me to pick against him. Jordy is an absolute monster who has beaten the best and is going into the race with the mentality that he can beat anyone. As for Noelle, he has never lost a 1500 this season and leads the NCAA with the fastest 1500 time this season. Both men will battle at Hayward Field to prove why they deserve a title.

3000St.

5. Mason Ferlic (Michigan)- 8:38.01

4. Anthony Rotich (UTEP)- 8:36.00

3. Ole Hesselbjerg (E. Kentucky)- 8:35.76

2. Zak Seddon (FSU)- 8:33.44

1. Stanley Kebenei (Arkansas)- 8:29.15

Explanation:  It bothers me that Edwin Kibichiy isn’t shown in my picks. The guy has a lot of talent, but not be as tactically savy as Ferlic and Rotich in races like these. Rotich has the experience while Ferlic has been on a strong surge as of late grabbing excellent times and getting wins. Ole Hessselbjerg is slightly underrated as he gets lost in the hype by the winning ways of Kebenei and Seddon. Hesselbjerg will be a strong competitor I expect to compete till the end. Of course, at that point, it will be Arkansas’ Stanley Kebenei who will have a victory over Zak Seddon. Kebenei hasn’t shown a reason as to how he could lose. He’s simply too strong and has been preparing for this all season. Kebenei is your NCAA champion.

5000

5. Justyn Knight (Syracuse)- 13:45.39

4. Thomas Awad (Penn)- 13:43.25

3. Kemoy Campbell (Arkansas)- 13:41.58

2. Eric Jenkins (Oregon)- 13:39.45

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)- 13:38.77

Explanation: The two best distance runners in the NCAA on their home track? Give me one reason why they wont go 1-2? Cheserek and Jenkins have sat in the shadows all season waiting for their chance to race hard. I expect them to play it smart in order to pursue the 13:20 man, Kemoy Campbell, who has to be frustrated after coming so close to an indoor title (that was spoiled by the Oregon duo). East region guys like Awad and Knight will step into a race that favors the west region in terms of overall talent. Awad has competed hard and made himself relevant in nearly every event there is this season. He has some quick legs under him, which will be beneficial in a race that is surely to be strategic. Knight won the ACC 1500 title with one shoe…he may be a freshman but he is a gamer and should hold onto a top five spot.

10,000

5. Craig Lutz (Texas)- 28:45.82

4. Martin Hehir (Syracuse)- 28:40.90

3. Eric Jenkins (Oregon)- 28:33.03

2. Jason Witt (BYU)- 28:31.44

1. Edward Cheserek (Oregon)- 28:26.95

Explanation: Last year, we saw Lawi Lalang and Eddy Ches race in one of the fastest 5k’s in NCAA championship history. While that was the 5k, this year’s 10k has the same potential. Jason Witt might be the only one in the field that can best Edward Cheserek. It will be a difficult race for Witt to manage. His 27:54 indicates that he can push the pace and shake nearly anyone. However, if Ches or Jenkins are still with him at 400 to go, I’m not sure he’ll have the leg speed to hold them off. If Witt is smart he’ll start pushing the pace at 4-5k to go. Ideally, Witt will want to be as close to his 27:54 PR as possible (duh) and create in an insurmountable gap in the process. While he is capable of sub 28, pushing the pace like that is extremely difficult mentally and might leave enough room for Ches and Jenkins to come storming back. When it comes down to it, I see Cheserek making up a massive gap while Jenkins simply can’t catch up. Cheserek will out-kick Witt in the final 300 meters and the Oregon Duck will defend his title.

Oh and there are others in this race too! I’ll finally give some love to our boy Craig Lutz. He has been relatively consistent this season, but his 10k’s have been the most impressive. In front of Lutz, I envision Martin Hehir running a strong last 2k and sitting comfortably in the middle of the front-runners and the rest of the field to grab a fourth place finish.

This is it ladies and gents. The final showdown is fast approaching. So the real question is…Who you got?

Get your popcorn ready,

Garrett

Caleb Gatchell

I’m going to start with the 800 because, well, that’s the best event in track and field. It’s also the one I follow the closest, so I figure this way there’s a chance I’ll start out looking like I know what I’m doing before making a complete fool of myself later on. I think there are four really big names, Kidder, McBride, Walker, and of course, Kemboi. I think McBride and Kemboi are both really safe bets in this race. They’ve both been in this situation several times, and they have the experience to avoid a big upset in the prelims and then put themselves in a good situation going into the last 200 of the final. Shaquille Walker is another runner I feel pretty confident in to avoid a big stumble in prelims, but I worry about him in the final just a little bit. He’s been running in the 1:45 range pretty consistently outdoors this year, but he doesn’t have experience in an NCAA final, and that worries me just a little. When in doubt, always go with experience. Brannon Kidder, while possibly the most talented, is also the one that scares me the most. While he seems to almost always make the final, he never does it comfortably, and I worry that one of these times that will catch up to him. He also has a bit of a history of underperforming in the final other than his freshman year when he placed 3rd. After these 4 guys I think it’s really wide open. You’ve got a whole group of guys in Murphy, Engels, Capwell, Garn, Arroyo, Schnulle, and Kibet who have a ton of potential. Problem is, I can’t fit them all into my top 5. Arroyo and Garn scare me a bit, Arroyo because he’s had issues getting through prelims, and Garn because he lacks experience and false started at indoors. I like Capwell and Murphy a lot though, and while Kibet has a ton of potential as well, I think he’s still about a year away from being in that top 5 discussion. Capwell is super underrated, even coming off a runner-up finish indoors. So, I guess my final picks would be:

1: Edward Kemboi
2: Brandon McBride
3: Dylan Capwell
4: Brannon Kidder
5: Shaquille Walker

I guess I’ll just go to the 1500 next. This race really intrigues me because there are a few really fun storylines. We have Chad Noelle who has shown to be an excellent championship racer, Christian Soratos who grabbed our attention indoors, and Jordy Williamsz who is one of the few people to take Ed Cheserek down in the last couple years. Then of course we have the boys from Oregon, and a sneaky good Rorey Hunter. Zach Perkins has been here and been successful before, and Robby Creese is Mr. Consistency, at least when it comes to getting to this point. So how in the world do we sort this out? I think Jordy Williamsz is super dangerous in this race. He has proved that he has great speed, and is also extremely savvy when it comes to race tactics. Chad Noelle would be another guy that fits into this category. He has a great last 100 meters, and he has proved that he knows how to put himself in position to win a race. You also can’t discount Cristian Soratos, but he just hasn’t proved that he can win a tactical championship style race. I’m also not sure if I can trust Robby Creese to come through in the clutch. He has the talent, I just can’t think of a defining championship race for him. As for the Oregon boys, I think Blake Haney has a lot of talent, but lacks the experience to make a big impact this year. I’m a big fan of Gregorek though, and I think Winn could surprise as well. I think either Perkins or Hunter will also have a big break out race, I’m just not sure which one. Ultimately, it’s really hard for me to pick between Williamsz and Noelle. I think this will be an all-time great 1500 final with the two of them neck and neck all the way to the line.

1: Jordy Williamsz
2: Chad Noelle
3: Cristian Soratos
4: Johnny Gregorek
5: Zach Perkins

I guess I’ll just keep moving up in distance and go with the 3k Steeplechase next. Obviously Stanley Kebenei is the favorite here, but you can’t discount Anthony Rotich. Both are running extremely well so far this year, and I would look for that to continue this weekend. One thing to keep in mind is that Rotich has excellent speed as he shows us indoors in the mile each year. If this race comes down to the last 400, he could be very dangerous. Edwin Kibichiy has been consistently good this year as well, but I don’t see him breaking up the top 2. Also worth keeping an eye on are Zak Seddon, Mason Ferlic, Connor Winter, and Ole Hesselbjerg.

1: Stanley Kebenei
2: Anthony Rotich
3: Edwin Kibichiy
4: Connor Winter
5: Mason Ferlic

The 5k will feature the incredible 1-2 punch of Ed Cheserek and Eric Jenkins, so the inevitable question is, can anyone break that up? Kemoy Campbell, Justyn Knight, and Pat Tiernan are three names to keep an eye on that could do it. Thomas Curtin is another interesting one especially given the indoor season he had, but I don’t think he’s quite been at that level outdoors. I think Kirubel Erassa and Erik Olsen are potentially underrated sleepers that could also have a big day. And oh yeah, Will Geoghegan is in this race too. Ultimately, I think Ches and Jenkins are on a different level than everyone else, even coming off the 10k. Behind them though, I think it will be an excellent race for spots 3-8.

1: Edward Cheserek
2: Eric Jenkins
3: Justyn Knight
4: Kemoy Campbell
5: Kirubel Erassa

Finally, we have the 10k, also featuring the two, the only, Edward Cheserek and Eric Jenkins. There are definitely some other big names though, from Craig Lutz to Futsum to Scott Fauble. There are also a couple of guys from the East region in Brandon Lord and Martin Hehir that could place well. Ultimately, once again, nobody is on the level of Ches and Jenkins, but, I do think Lutz and Futsum will make them work for it. Brandon Lord is definitely underrated, and I think getting in a race with these top guys will pull him along to a good place as well.

1: Edward Cheserek
2: Eric Jenkins
3: Craig Lutz
4: Futsum Zienasellassie
5: Brandon Lord

Alex Fox: NCAA Predictions (Outdoor)

800m

This race was a blessing and a curse for me indoors; I was the only one who managed to correctly predict the winner in Kemboi and I was also possibly the entire person to correctly include Ryan Manahan in their top 5. Unfortunately, I was alone in picking Jesse Garn in the top, and after he was inexplicably DQ’ed in the prelims, my point total sky rocketed.  So, after an outdoor season for this distance, where do I stand? I can say one thing for certain: I’m sticking with my man Kemboi for the win. He came through for me inside, and I’d be foolish to pick against him given his credentials and knack for winning. After him, there is a plethora of talent to pick from, including Brandon McBride, Shaq Walker, Brandon Kidder, Ryan Schnulle, and Garn. The first preliminary heat is loaded, as Kemboi, Walker, Kidder, and Schnulle are all featured. Whoever survives that first heat should fare well in the finals. Overall, I think that this will be one of the best events of the meet given the number of guys with a lot of talent.

Top 5

1) Kemboi

2) Walker

3) McBride

4) Kidder

5) Andres Arroyo

1500m

The mile was easily my best event for indoors, as all of my predicted runners finished in the top five, and I was the only contributor to include Chad Noelle (New York power!) Can I repeat my success for outdoor? With no one named Cheserek in the race, picking a winner is a little more difficult. That’s not to say that Oregon isn’t well represented, as Daniel Winn, true freshman Blake Haney, and Johnny Gregorek all qualified. Other big guns from the PAC 12 also will be featured in the race, including Izaic Yorks, Thomas Joyce, and Ben Saarel. The east coast is also well represented, as Jordan Williamsz, Robby Creese, and Robert DeNault will all look to make noise in the finals. Lastly, I can’t forget about my man Chad, who showed he has what it takes to win the big races with his NCAA leading 3:38 earlier this season, and the equally talented and unpredictable Christian Soratos. As to be expected, this race will be anything but boring.

Top 5

1) Noelle

2) Williamsz

3) Joyce

4) Soratos

5) Winn

5k

What’s a distance race without some Oregon Ducks? Without Parker Stinson to deride in these predictions, they may become a little more accurate, but also that much less entertaining. The big names in the race are obviously Cheserek and Jenkins, who will be joined by teammates Will Geoghegan and the oft forgotten Jake Leingang. In addition to the Oregon boys, other big names in the 5k include Aussie superstar Pat Tiernan, a personal favorite in Kemoy Campell, Morgan Piersan, and Stanford teammates Erik Olson and Sean McGorty. A few surprises are also in there, namely freshman sensation Justyn Knight, New York native and the former butt of some of my jokes Tommy Awad, and Kirubel Erassa; all three forwent opportunities in the 1500 to race here. Whether this was a smart decision has yet to be determined. Although I think we can all agree on the winner, it’s always fun to watch the king do his thing.

Top 5

1) Cheserek

2) Jenkins

3) Campell

4) Geoghegan

5) Tiernan

10k

Guess what team is heavily featured in this race? If you said Syracuse, you might be me proofreading this. If you said Oregon, you’re everyone else reading this. Sorry about that, I just didn’t want to miss the opportunity to point out that three Orangemen will race this event. Onto to the matter at hand: the top 5. The 10k is on the first night, allowing for Chenkins (the couple name I’ve given to Cheserek and Jenkins. It’ll catch on) to double back in the 5k. They’ll be finishing top two…or that’s what history would indicate. If anyone can take down this dominant duo, it’s Jason Witt of BYU. This guy has been killing the track game all year, and that’s not about to stop at Nationals. Futsam Zienasellassie has all the talent in the world, but it never seems to translate onto the track, and his teammate with a much easier name to spell in Matt McElroy will also be in the race. A couple of west coast studs I’ll be looking for are Pierce Murphy and Scott Fauble of Portland, who had an underrated cross season and collegiate career. Finally, everyone’s favorite runner and person Craig Lutz will be shocking the field, winning in an incredible 24 minutes, followed by a victory lap in a beautiful green and yellow tee shirt with the word “ETRAIN” featured on his glorious body.

Top 5

1) Cheserek

2) Witt

3) Jenkins

4) Hehir

5 (but #1 in all our hearts)) Lutz

3k Steeple Chase

I’ll be honest, I don’t know much going into this race, as steeple just isn’t one of those events I follow. That said, I do know enough to recognize Anthony Rotich as the favorite; dude is a beast. I also know that Stanley Kebenei can hang with the best of them, and Tanguy Pepiot is very talented, as long as he avoids premature celebration (we’ve all been there). Other names I recognize from other races and what not are Mason Ferlic, Connor Winter, and Kyle King. Looking at seed times, it appears that mystery names in Ole Hesselbjerg (I promise that’s what his name is), Darren Fahy, Jackson Neff, and Zak Seddon all have this steeple chase thing down. Hopefully I don’t pick the last place finisher in my top 5 and screw up my point total like I did twice in indoor (Garn and Elkaim).

Top 5

1) Rotich

2) Seddon

3) Kebenei

4) Ferlic

5) Hesselbjerg    

Sean Collins

800:

1. Brannon Kidder

2. Brandon McBride

3. Shaquille Walker

4. Edward Kemboi

5. Dylan Capwell

I feel like it’s time that Kidder gets a championship. The biggest issue here is that Kidder, Kemboi and Walker are all in the same heat. That means that they are all going to run super hard in the prelims to make sure they get through. I just hope they recover well for the final.

1500:

1. Jordan Williamsz

2. Chad Noelle

3. Christian Soratos

4. Robby Creese

5. Izaic Yorks

After Williamsz 4xMile win at Penn, I just can’t see him losing.  Soratos could end up anywhere in this field and I hope his tactics work better here than they do indoors. And sadly, I just can’t see Creese getting a championship.

5000:

1. Tommy Awad

2. Edward Cheserek

3. Justyn Knight

4. Will Geoghegan

5. Sean McGorty

Have to stick close to home for this win. After watching him all year, I just see it as difficult for him to lose this race. Cheserek will likely play games again like in the 4x1600 and I think Tommy has the strength to beat him. Geoghegan will also be strong here as he is the best fresh Oregon Duck in the race will stick close to Cheserek just like indoors.

10000:

1. Edward Cheserek

2. Eric Jenkins

3. Futsum Zienasellassie

4. Craig Lutz

5. Martin Hehir

I basically felt like I had to pick Cheserek for a win somewhere and I think its easier here than in the 5k. Jenkins always runs well when Cheserek is with him and I just can’t see anything different than 1-2. I’ve loved Zienasellassie since HS and I think that the No. Arizona training will work for him. And with 4-5, I had to stay try to the blog and my high school by picking Lutz, and then Hehir (who won my high school invitational 4 or 5 years ago.

3000 Steeple:

1. Stanley Kebenei

2. Anthony Rotich

3. Mason Ferlic

4. Edwin Kibichiy

5. Ole Hesselbjerg

After kebenei and Rotich, I really have no idea what I’m picking here… so yeah.

Evan Hatton

800

I’d say there are three guys who are pretty much shoo-ins for the final: Edward Kemboi, Shaquille Walker and Brandon McBride.  Brannon Kidder has made huge strides this year, specifically his 1:45 at Payton Jordan.  He’s coming off of a big win at Big Ten Champs over some very solid competition in Joe McAsey.  I’m a fan of Clayton Murphy and he hasn’t lost a race since Indoor NCAAs, I definitely think he has the ability to show up when it counts and gets himself a spot in the top 5.  Ultimately, I think the race plays out like this:

1. Edward Kemboi - 1:46.12
2. Brannon Kidder - 1:46.35
3. Shaquille Walker - 1:46.51
4. Brandon McBride - 1:47.20
5. Clayton Murphy - 1:47.94

1500

The first heat is headlined by Daniel Winn, Robert Denault, and Joe Hardy.  Hardy has had an excellent freshman campaign at Wisconsin and he is definitely a sleeper pick for me.  The second heat of prelims is unbelievably deep and should be really tough to make it out of.  Williamsz, Soratos, and Noelle should make it out with relative ease.  Creese and Gregorek make it out in the next two place spots.  I think Soratos is hungry for the win.  His FloTrack interviews said that he was alright with second in indoor, but you could tell he wants that win.

1. Cristian Soratos - 3:39.31
2. Chad Noelle - 3:39.78
3. Jordy Williamsz - 3:40.42
4. Peter Callahan - 3:40.91
5. Joe Hardy - 3:41.16

3000SC

If Stanley Kebenei doesn’t win this race, I would be shocked.  Behind him is where it gets a bit tricky.  Jackson Neff of Ohio State has dropped some fantastic times this year and I saw him get the win at the Jesse Owens Track Classic in commanding fashion.  Mason Ferlic has also had an awesome year and should make some noise.  Anthony Rotich is the biggest threat to Kebenei, getting the win at West Prelims with ease.  Watch for PA Alum Ryan Gil to possibly sneak into finals.

1. Stanley Kebenei - 8:37.23
2. Anthony Rotich - 8:37.87
3. Jackson Neff - 8:38.42
4. Edwin Kibichiy - 8:40.61
5. Mason Ferlic - 8:41.24

5000

Jeez, you have to imagine that this is gonna be the Cheserek-Jenkins show, but there is so much talent in this race.  Tommy Awad, Jake Leingang, Thomas Curtin, Sean McGorty, the list goes on and on.  If the 22 guys in this race that aren’t Ches and Jenkins are smart, they won’t let this be tactical, because if it is there are two guys who can win it.  This race is going to be fast, very fast.  I think Kemoy Campbell gives them a run for their money and ultimately breaks up the duo of Ches-Jenkins, but Ches still gets the win.  

1. Edward Cheserek - 13:20.91
2. Kemoy Campbell - 13:21.07
3. Eric Jenkins - 13:21.26
4. Thomas Curtin - 13:33.45
5. Justyn Knight - 13:34.61

10000

Ches and Jenkins are starting their NCAA festivities in the 10k on Wednesday night and look to continue their success from indoor championships.  The blog’s best friend Craig Lutz has had an awesome season, and I would really like to see him finish out the year with a strong performance.  Another set of teammates Zienasellassie and McElroy will toe the line as well.  I’m a big fan of both runners and I think its very possible there are only three teams represented in the top 5.  A fresh Cheserek is dangerous, but I can’t bring myself to give him the double.  Jenkins gets the win.

1. Eric Jenkins - 28:24.54
2. Edward Cheserek - 28:24.87
3. Futsum Zienasellassie - 28:26.09
4. Craig Lutz - 28:31.36
5. Pierce Murphy - 28:36.76

-Evan

Jarrett Felix

For those of you who don't know, I got smacked during indoors. Like literally smacked. So now I'm going to try and redeem myself ... Otherwise I may have to just stick to high school or risk seriously damaging my reputation ... Tried to do this fast because I ran instead of doing this post in advance. My bad. In the words of Ron Weasley: "(s)He needs to sort out his priorities ..."

10k
1. Cheserek
2. Jenkins
3. Witt
4. McClintok
5. Zeinasellasie

Purposely chose to avoid picking Craig Lutz to make absolutely sure I didn't jinx him. I'd be surprised to see anything but a Ches-Jenkins 1-2 at the finish line. Interesting idea on lets run recently pointed out that Jenkins is about to turn pro and would really benefit from the extra headline of being a double NCAA champ outdoors so this win may end up more important to him than Eddy ...

800m
1. Kemboi
2. Capwell
3. McBride
4. Kidder
5. Schnulle

I'm going to count on the man from Florida always showing up and getting me a solid low amount of points. Capwell is awesome but a bit untested. Intrigued to see if McBride can get revenge and if PSU can finally get an NCAA gold.

1500m
1. Soratos
2. Noelle
3. Williamsz
4. Callahan
5. Winn

Sleeper is Perkins from Air Force who was second here two years ago. Always been a big Callahan fan, he could surprise. Williamsz kicking ability is well documented. I just really like the way Soratos has raced this year. I feel he deserves the win. Obligatory U of O homer pick to round out the top 5. Secret wish is for a big day from Saarel. But way to risky of a pick to land in my top 5.

5000m
1. Ches
2. Jenkins
3. Geogehan
4. Tiernan
5. McGorty

For the record, I don't actually think there will be another Oregon sweep. That being said I purposely left Campbell out of my predictions because, although his ceiling is the greatest and I'd love to have him in a fantasy league, if he blows up or drops out I get killed in the point scoring. So I picked what I view as the safest 5 (that meant leaving out guys like Knight and Awad as well). I'm thinking Ches will have extra motivation to take down Jenkins after what happened indoors. Feel like he has something to prove ... but admittedly so does Jenkins since Ches claims he let him win.

3k Steeple
1. Rotich
2. Kebenei
3. Ferlic
4. Kibichi
5. Pepiot

I'm coming in basically blind to the steeple. Nowhere near the level of expertise I need to type things and make them seem legit. So I picked the five most absurd names and threw them down on a piece of paper. They also all happen to have really good steeple PRs, but still, look at those names!

Happy Championship season from all of us here at the aftermath.

-your conductor, train