Penn Relays: 5 Big Questions

So after the events of the Penn Relays have come and gone, I figured I would do some good old fashioned analysis mixed in with some of the most important questions that emerged once the dust cleared at Franklin Field.

1. Should We Be Talking About Pennridge In the 4x8 State Title Coversation?
I wasn't exactly calling Pennridge to be in the mix for the Championship of America and I certainly didn't see them as a 7:50 squad at the big dance, but after Saturday finished they had run 7:50 and 7:51 on back to back days, edged out the indoor champs at State College and gotten two outstanding 1:52 legs out of Joe Logue.

For Logue this is nothing new, he's been running down around 1:53 for three years in a row and he qualified for the COA as a soph with the Pennridge squad that finished 3rd at states outdoors and first indoors. Logue ran for individual state gold at the last couple state meets and also had a key leg on a 4x4 to worry about so the 4x8 was put on the back burner. However, the squad still was running down around 8 flat without him. Dan Williams has emerged as a 1:57 guy on back to back days and Shulberger and Masgai are both solid legs as well. They ran 1:58 and 2:00 at best at Penn (running lead off at Penn is absolutely brutal by the way so props to Masgai). With Logue on the anchor as long the first three legs keep them in the hunt, I wouldn't be surprised to see the powerful kick and ultra competitivness of Logue lead to a 1:50ish anchor leg at states like Connor Manley a few years ago. 1:59-1:58-1:57-1:51 gets you to 7:45 and that's just off current PRs.

The downside is State College ran 7:45 this past weekend without Cather getting down to his PR. Mason Post is establishing himself very quickly as a stud as he has now lowered his PR to 1:55. Adams added a 1:56 split for good measure and Golembski had to shoulder the lead off load and still ran 1:58 low which is basically a PR because his split indoors was hand time. State College is heading in the right direction and leaves Penn with a time faster than Bensalem or CV ran last year I believe.

Plus the list of 4x8 teams competing for the title stretches far outside what we saw in the COA. Think about this: CB East's anchor ran 2:07 and the team ran without Jake Brophy. Switch Brophy in and give him 2:00ish then that CB East squad is joining Pennridge in the COA. Same could probably be said for Malvern Prep if you switch in Hoey and slot him around 1:56 (but Malvern is not PIAA affiliated).

Then you have O'Hara and Henderson to worry about. O'Hara, although I think it is unlikely, may try and load up a 4x8 at stats and they have a 1:53 stud in Nick Smart to go with Belfatto and James who are both sub 1:56 on their best days in my eyes. If they can get Nolan going on the 4th leg they will have a very capable relay. As for Henderson, I think it's fairly self explanatory. If Henderson really wanted to, they could turn that DMR into a 4x8 and they would be stacked. Russell is worth 1:53 right now in the right race no doubt in my mind. Thompson has run 1:56, Moy has run 1:55 and Stratman just ran a killer 1200 leg. He's in at least 1:57ish shape right now. Add up 1:53-1:55-1:56-1:57 and you are down at 7:41 (without throwing tenths on there), so on paper Henderson is way up there.

This doesn't even account for teams like Cedar Crest, DT East, Penncrest and Altoona who I think are going to be in good shape come states even if they didnt' qualify for the COA at Penn. Oh and North Penn is worth mentioning too although the DMR didn't go as well as they might have hoped. And don't sleep on Pennsbury if we are looking ahead.

Pennridge certainly deserves a lot of credit for emerging as a real threat to upset the favorites at the state meet. But the 4x8 scene is crowded right now at the top. There are no guarentees Pennridge will even load up their relay again as Logue is still highly likely to be featured in the open 8 title talks and 4x4 squads. However, the recent success makes this Pennridge squad a compelling story going forward.

2. Henderson and O'Hara Track and Field, what comes next?
What a rivalry this has been for the last couple years. I'd be remiss if I didn't at least mention how awesome this DMR race was. First there was the epic 1200 leg where both PA teams handed off up at the front. Stratman ran fantastic to go after James, he stalked his prey beautifully and set the tone for the rest of the meet. James needed some help outfront if he was going to duplicate some of his impressive 1200 performances of the past. Then after an exciting 400 leg, Nick Smart did his thing but Kevin Moy did not back down. This is one of the best races out of Moy in recent memory and is a strong sign looking ahead (perhaps he will go open 8 over open 16 this year?). Smart has really done a nice job being clutch in the last year. He ran a big time lead off leg outdoors in the 4x8, finished 11th at states in XC, beat out Will Cather in the open 8 for 4th in a great field indoors, ran the breakaway leg indoors on the DM and ran the breakaway leg outdoors at Penn (although it wasn't quite as much of a breakaway). I believe the only PA guys under 1:55 on the weekend were Logue, Cather and Smart. That's it.

The anchor leg was quite unreal. Russell ran really gutsy. Going out in 58 and 2:01 is mind boggling, it's a suicide pace really. The pacing itself was obviously not what made his anchor leg smart. The fact that Russell has been running absurd opening 400 splits all season is what made it smart. Belfatto hasn't been a race a where he has been out sub 60 in 16 I have to imagine. Russell has probably done it 4 or 5 times this year now. Belfatto is fearless and he knew he had to give it everything to hang with his team, but he would have been better off letting Tony go and trying to real him back in with more even splits. But Jim is fearless and he ran that way at Penn and ultimately it was a bit too fast of a pace to handle. Congrats to both squads, they each ran super hard out there and represented PA well. Also for the record PA has dominated the DM at Penn. Coatesville, GFS, Upper Dublin, -, - (CB South 2nd), -, LaSalle, Henderson. 5 titles since 2007 is nice.

So now what happens to these teams? Both squads are clearly super talented and could run a nice 4x8 at states. Both teams also have stud individuals who can run multiple events as individuals at the state championships. Let's begin with the boys from O'Hara. Kev James is a 2 miler at heart and I think he knows that. He will be in the mix for the state title at the event if he chooses to attack it (although that event is stacked depth wise). If he commits to the 32, running the 4x8 so close after is a hard double. I saw Sam Webb pull off a decent one a year ago, but if O'Hara is going to stack their 4x8 they are going all in to try and win and that means you need a 1:56 type leg out of Kevin James to match with Adams. I don't see O'Hara going after the 4x8 at states, maybe they run one at Districts to send a team along (although with LaSalle, St. Joe's Prep and Bonner lurking that might be a bit bold) but I don't see them lining up there A team again until Nats time.

That means James in the 32, Belfatto in the 16 and Smart in the 800 all with shots to win or at least contend for a top medal. Belfatto could maybe switch tactics and go for the 8 to avoid Russell who is a big time favorite in the 16, but I think the 800 doesn't get any easier and Jim was second indoors at the mile. If anything he probably wants another shot at Tony and won't try and dodge him.

As for Henderson their depth further complicates matters. I believe there is a rule against how many guys you can send to states from one team in one event or something like that? I don't know the rule of the top of my head. I will say this, Henderson has 5 milers under 4:20 who could all, in theory qualify for states. But if there are rules against it, that isn't happening. They could spread their guys around with Barchet in the 32, Russell and Stratman in the 16, Thompson and Moy in the 8 and Collins flexing between the 32 and the 16. Knapp I think ought to be a factor in the 3200 by districts time as well.

However, you could easily say let's scrap the individuals and get a strong relay on the track. Collins, Thompson, Moy and Stratman could be state title contenders. Throw Russell on the team you could argue they are state title favorites. If they wanted to, they could seriously chase a 4x8 title.

But I don't see it happening. Especially not with Russell on the relay. Russell may end up considering a 32-16 double, but I think he may just focus on the 16 and attack the state record. He could be 4:05ish on the right day in the right race when the dust clears. The Henderson Invite, always a fantastically stacked meet, will let Henderson see exactly what they have in all events. I'm expecting a 32 featuring Russell, Barchet, Collins, Knapp, Waltz and outside chance of Stratman and Moy being involved. Thompson likely gets another chance to improve his 800m top speed and see how he lines up with the best in the district. After this meet is over we should have a bit better picture of what Kevin Kelly might choose to do.

Coming up next ... The 3200m at States and the Chase for Sub 9, who's got it?